By Greg Peel
There's little more to say about it – tonight sees the release of the first estimate of US second quarter GDP. With recent data having increasingly shown a slowing in the economic recovery after a good bounce out of the recession, this release will arguably be the most critical GDP since the GFC. Economist consensus has the number at 2.5% growth, down from 2.7% in the first quarter.
Wall Street will respond accordingly.
If there is one thing to say, that is that the data deteriorated over the course of the quarter, from April through to June. This first estimate is weighted towards numbers collected from earlier in the quarter and then extrapolated. This could mean we see a repeat of the first quarter, in which the first estimate comes in higher than expected before being revised down in the first revision and again in the second revision. In other words, the number may misleadingly surprise to the upside.
Tonight will also see second quarter personal income and expenditure data, the monthly Chicago purchasing managers' index (PMI) and the second Michigan Uni consumer confidence measure for July. And there will be yet more earnings reports as we pass into the second half of the season.
Having absorbed the GDP tonight, the US is then hit with the July manufacturing PMI on Monday night. This number is a closely watched forward indicator of economic growth, and it has ticked down the last two months. It is still, however, in expansion territory. Wall Street does not want it to slip below 50, and 55 is expected.
Indeed, Monday is global manufacturing PMI day, with all of Australia, China, the UK, EU and US reporting. Service and construction sector PMIs follow later in the week.
The US will also see readings next week on construction spending, factory orders, pending home sales, vehicle sales, chain store sales and consumer credit, and it is unemployment week. The ADP private sector unemployment number for July will be released on Wednesday and the official non-farm payrolls next Friday.
In Australia, there will be another handful of earnings reports as the season begins to ramp up. Next week's highlights include AXA-AP (AXA), West Oz News ((WAN)), Newscorp ((NWS)), Rio Tinto ((RIO)), Tabcorp ((TAH)), Equinox ((EQN)) and ResMed ((RMD)). Resource sector quarterly production reports are now behind us.
On the economic front, we will see building approvals and the June trade balance as well as the PMIs, and on Friday the RBA will release its quarterly report on monetary policy. On Tuesday the RBA will make a rate decision, and leave the cash rate on hold.
On Thursday both the Bank of England and European Central Bank will also make rate decisions, and also remain on hold. Accompanying policy statements will nevertheless be of interest globally.
For a more comprehensive preview of next week's events, please refer to "The Monday Report", published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, ex-div dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.
