Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates A11 as Outperform (1) -

Piedmont Lithium has announced the sale of a portion of Atlantic Lithium shares to Assore International Holdings, currently the largest shareholder, taking Assore's stake to 28.4%.

Atlantic recently completed an equity raise of $8m, which will support multiple work streams prior to the project's final approval, Macquarie notes.

Positive drilling intersections were reported recently, which indicate the continuity of mineralisations and highlight resource upside, the broker suggests.

The company is also progressing with its discussions with potential offtake partners, for a portion of its 50% uncommitted spodumene output from Ewoyaa. Outperform and 56c target retained.

Target price is $0.56 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.165
If A11 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates A2M as Buy (1) -

Prior to 1H results, Citi reaffirms its Buy rating (on an undemanding valuation) and $4.81 target for a2 Milk Co given the broker's data analysis suggests upside risk to 1H A&NZ infant milk formula sales.

The analysts also believe the new China label transition is progressing well, while recent Chinese birth rate numbers were also better-than -expected.

Target price is $4.81 Current Price is $4.32 Difference: $0.49
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.33, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALD as Hold (3) -

Ampol's Dec Q underlying earnings were down -30% on the Sep Q, Ord Minnett approximates. Ampol didn't provide a figure, noting 2023 profit is expected to be slightly ahead of 2022's record result.

Growth in non-refining offset a reduction in refining following historcally high levels last year. The Lytton refining margin was still healthy, the broker notes, but was always going to struggle against 2022's stellar result.

Ord Minnett suggests Ampol's dividend remains the key appeal. Hold and $35 target retained.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $34.75 Difference: $0.25
If ALD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.76, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ALK as Buy (1) -

Gold production in the 2Q for Alkane Resources of 13.2koz fell short of Bell Potter's forecast for 15koz, while the average gold sale
price was $2,926/oz compared to the broker's $2970/oz forecast.

The analysts note annualised 1H production is just below the bottom of the FY24 guidance range, while costs (AISC) were above the guidance range.

Bell Potter believes the Tomingley Expansion will grow production to the higher levels in FY25 and FY26 of 80koz and 100koz, respectively. The Buy rating and $1.00 target are retained.

This research report was issued on January 15.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.44
If ALK meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALX as Neutral (3) -

Atlas Arteria's APRR traffic is likely to be 1% better than Macquarie's previous estimate with SANEF data remaining strong. The broker suggests positive relationship of Atlas and Eiffage suggests a second half refinancing of Eiffarie debt will occur.

The impact of the environmental levy emerges in 2H24, which in the broker's view limits the ability to lift the dividend based on underlying cash flow growth. A court challenge to the legislation is inevitable, though a conclusion may take time.

Macquarie's expectation is for a concession extension of some 18 months to offset the lost revenue. Target falls to $5.80 from $5.84, Neutral retained.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.43 Difference: $0.37
If ALX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.11, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMP as Accumulate (2) -

While management has made good progress in turning around the business, it's unlikely AMP can improve its competitive position relative to peers, Ord Minnett suggests.

AMP's once competitive positions in distributional reach and brand recognition have materially weakened since 2018, the broker argues.

Accumulate and $1.30 target retained.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.94 Difference: $0.36
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.07, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ANZ as Accumulate (2) -

Australian banks face low credit growth, softer net interest margins and an increase in loan losses in the short term, Ord Minnett suggests. But the broker expects loan and deposit pricing changes will lift margins sufficiently to generate returns above the cost of equity.

The broker believes Westpac and ANZ Bank show the best value of the majors having addressed market concerns around lacklustre loan growth, and the next catalyst will be delivery of operating efficiencies.

Accumulate and $31 target retained for ANZ.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $26.13 Difference: $4.87
If ANZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.15, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AWC as Accumulate (2) -

Alcoa saw an improvement in the Dec Q from the Sep Q, Ord Minnett notes, but this is coming off a low bar and the broker's Alumina Ltd forecasts have improved only marginally to a still negative -1.2c. Dec Q production at AWAC was steady.

In an already tight alumina market hit by Chinese production cuts, a subsequent 10% rise in price suggests upside risks to the broker's Alumina Ltd estimates if it holds materially above estimates.

Accumulate and $1.18 target retained.

Target price is $1.18 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.175
If AWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.13, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AZS as Speculative Hold (3) -

Back on December 19, Bell Potter issued research on Azure Minerals, noting a new binding Transaction Implementation Deed (TID) with Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile and Hancock Prospecting.

Under the TID, the bidders proposed to acquire 100% of Azure Minerals by scheme of arrangement for $3.70/share, or if the scheme is unsuccessful, by an off-market takeover offer of $3.65/share in cash.

The broker left the $4.85 target and Speculative Hold rating unchanged. It's felt this new jointly-proposed transaction will succeed.

Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $3.67 Difference: $1.18
If AZS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BEN as Hold (3) -

Australian banks face low credit growth, softer net interest margins and an increase in loan losses in the short term, Ord Minnett suggests.

But the broker expects loan and deposit pricing changes will lift margins sufficiently to generate returns above the cost of equity.

Hold and $10.50 target retained for Bendigo & Adelaide Bank.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.63 Difference: $0.87
If BEN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.09, suggesting downside of -6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BHP as Hold (3) -

BHP Group's 2Q operational result was "healthy", according to Morgans, and showed volumes in line with the broker's forecasts for iron ore, copper and nickel.

The BHP Mitsubishi Alliance's (BMA) assets underperformed (as forecast) and NSW Energy Coal (NSWEC) produced 3.9mt, a 22% beat on the analysts' expectations. The latter was due to a combination of good weather and heavy pre-stripping in the prior quarter.

Net debt was lower than the broker's forecast. As a result, the upcoming interim dividend should now be higher than originally estimated.

The Hold rating and $49 target are maintained.

Target price is $49.00 Current Price is $45.73 Difference: $3.27
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.75, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BLD as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) -

On Monday last week, Bell Potter initiated coverage on Boral, the Australian vertically integrated supplier of construction materials, with a Hold rating and $5.15 target price.

Following troubled times including the pandemic, inflationary cost pressures and adverse weather conditions, the analysts explain Boral is now delivering a rapid recovery in earnings (EBIT) margin towards prior cycle-highs of more than 10%.

The broker believes the margin recovery will continue in FY24, and forecasts further margin expansion towards its 9.5% forecast in FY26.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $5.35 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If BLD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.71, suggesting downside of -11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BOQ as Accumulate (2) -

Australian banks face low credit growth, softer net interest margins and an increase in loan losses in the short term, Ord Minnett suggests. But the broker expects loan and deposit pricing changes will lift margins sufficiently to generate returns above the cost of equity.

Shares in Bank of Queensland have risen lately but the broker feels the market is still too pessimistic on margins and costs beyond FY24. Despite material margins pressure, Ord Minnett believes earnings growth will come from market share and cost efficiency gains.

Accumulate and $8.00 target retained.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $5.86 Difference: $2.14
If BOQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.57, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CBA as Hold (3) -

Australian banks face low credit growth, softer net interest margins and an increase in loan losses in the short term, Ord Minnett suggests. But the broker expects loan and deposit pricing changes will lift margins sufficiently to generate returns above the cost of equity.

Commonwealth Bank remains expensive, Ord Minnett suggests. A forward PE of 20x and a 4% dividend yield leave little room for disappointment.

Hold and $90 target retained.

Target price is $90.00 Current Price is $113.28 Difference: minus $23.28 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $90.45, suggesting downside of -21.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CVB as Speculative Buy (-1) -

Just prior to the end of 2023, Bell Potter initiated coverage on Curvebeam AI with a Speculative Buy rating and 34c target.

The company is a developer and manufacturer of weight bearing CT (WBCT) imaging systems and software aids using a combination of image analysis, artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning AI (DLAI).

WBCT images are more detailed than traditional planar images (similar to plain film in X-ray images), explains the broker, allowing both improved diagnosis and surgical planning.

The company's lead product is the HiRise scanner which provides high-resolution 3D imaging, primarily for the lower body, in the convenience of orthopaedic surgeon's consulting room, notes Bell Potter.

Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0
If CVB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates CY5 as Buy (1) -

Cygnus Metals' December quarter update covered a number of drilling updates and results across the company's portfolio. Shaw and Partners particularly noted rock chip assays at the Pegasus pegmatite, within Auclair, increased to 6.6% lithium.

According to the broker, drilling at Auclair shows significant potential for a major lithium discovery. More thick, high-grade clay-bearing rare earths were also reported at Bencubbin, with mineralisation extended to over 22 kilometres long and 2.8 kilometres wide.

The broker retains its Buy rating and target price of 50 cents.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.4
If CY5 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 400% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EXP as Buy (1) -

Experience Co has continued its run of extraordinary misfortune, Ord Minnett notes, with Cyclone Jasper and poor weather across the eastern seaboard wreaking havoc during the key holiday period.

Air capacity in and out of China is improving but remains well below pre-covid levels, and this continues to hinder Experience Co’s recovery. This is a global issue and the broker expects improvement over time, and is confident in a return to “normalised earnings”.

Ord Minnett describes recent debt refinancing as a game changer, but has downgraded earnings due to ongoing weather issues. Target falls to 32c from 35c, Buy retained.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.15
If EXP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 88% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates FMG as Sell (5) -

Bell Potter raises its target for Fortescue to $21.39 from $17.37 after increasing FY24-26 iron ore price forecasts by 10%, 14% and 9%, respectively. The long-term forecast was also raised by 6% to US$101/mt. Prices are 62% Fe, cost and freight (CFR) China basis.

The earnings upgrades, resulting from the broker's higher iron ore price forecasts, lead to increased DPS forecasts across FY24-26 to the tune of 21%, 56% and 33%, respectively.

Bell Potter's Sell rating stays despite the return of dividend yield as a price support.

Target price is $21.39 Current Price is $27.58 Difference: minus $6.19 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.11, suggesting downside of -24.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GT1 as Speculative Buy (1) -

While Bell Potter downgrades its near-term lithium price outlook, earnings estimates for Green Technology Metals are not impacted.

However, the broker's higher assumed project risking amid weak lithium markets results in a target of 39c, down from 72c. The Speculative Buy rating is unchanged.

Bell Potter lowers its near-term lithium price outlook due to recent additions to mine supply, and the severe impact of supply chain de-stocking on spot prices.

The broker now sees FY24 spodumene concentrate (SC6) prices averaging US$1,100/t, down from US$2,500/t, and forecasts lithium hydroxide prices will average US$18,125/t (previously US$32,500/t).

In the longer-term, Bell Potter sees risks of market deficits and the need for significant investment in new supply.

Target price is $0.39 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.2
If GT1 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 105% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HVN as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

After an investment thesis review, UBS upgrades its rating for Harvey Norman to Buy from Neutral and raises its target by $1.00 to $4.75.

The broker increases its FY24 EPS forecasts by 18% and 11%, respectively, on higher estimates for revenues and margins across the
Franchising Operations and International Retail segments.

Revenues in Franchising Operations are improving partly due to a more resilient consumer and leverage to the older and more affluent consumer, notes UBS.

Regarding International, the analysts expect significant store growth in Malaysia, while expansion in eastern Europe continues.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.30 Difference: $0.45
If HVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.11, suggesting downside of -5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IGO as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter lowers its near-term lithium price outlook due to recent additions to mine supply, and the severe impact of supply chain de-stocking on spot prices.

The broker now sees FY24 spodumene concentrate (SC6) prices averaging US$1,100/t, down from US$2,500/t, and forecasts lithium hydroxide prices will average US$18,125/t (previously US$32,500/t).

In the longer-term, Bell Potter sees risks of market deficits and the need for significant investment in new supply.

For IGO, the broker lowers its target to $8.50 from $11.30 and the Buy rating is unchanged.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.20 Difference: $1.3
If IGO meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.47, suggesting upside of 34.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ING as Neutral (3) -

UBS raises its target for Inghams Group to $4.50 from $3.25 after upgrading FY24 and FY25 EPS forecasts by 36% and 39%, respectively, due to a better-than-expected operational performance and price realisation in the Wholesale division.

At the recent investor day, management set a medium-term aspirational target for pre-AASB earnings (EBITDA) of over 10%, which the broker points out is a material step-up from the 6% achieved in FY23.

Combining this target with the broker's other assumptions results in earnings 30% higher than the current consensus forecast.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.26 Difference: $0.24
If ING meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.14, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JDO as Downgrade to Sell from Buy (5) -

Citi believes FY25 consensus earnings forecasts for Judo Capital are around 60% too high and suggests the nadir for earnings will occur in that financial year instead of FY24.

The broker's rating is downgraded by two notches to Sell from Buy and the target slashed to 87c from $1.35. Judo is now Citi's least preferred bank from among the regionals.

Revenue growth over the next year will be the main problem, according to the analysts, as higher cost of funds will push Judo toward relationship-based lending rather than competing with the major banks.

Target price is $0.87 Current Price is $0.99 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If JDO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.10, suggesting upside of 16.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LKE as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter lowers its near-term lithium price outlook due to recent additions to mine supply, and the severe impact of supply chain de-stocking on spot prices.

The broker now sees FY24 spodumene concentrate (SC6) prices averaging US$1,100/t, down from US$2,500/t, and forecasts lithium hydroxide prices will average US$18,125/t (previously US$32,500/t).

In the longer-term, Bell Potter sees risks of market deficits and the need for significant investment in new supply.

For Lake Resources, the broker's lower long-term lithium carbonate price forecast of US$16,250/t, down from US$30,000/t, has materially reduced the target to 12c from 25c. The Speculative Buy rating is unchanged.

Target price is $0.12 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.02
If LKE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LRS as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter lowers its near-term lithium price outlook due to recent additions to mine supply, and the severe impact of supply chain de-stocking on spot prices.

The broker now sees FY24 spodumene concentrate (SC6) prices averaging US$1,100/t, down from US$2,500/t, and forecasts lithium hydroxide prices will average US$18,125/t (previously US$32,500/t).

In the longer-term, Bell Potter sees risks of market deficits and the need for significant investment in new supply.

The Speculative Buy rating is unchanged for Latin Resources and the target falls to 43c from 46c.

Target price is $0.43 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.23
If LRS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 115% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LTM as Buy (1) -

Following the Allkem-Livent Scheme of Arrangement, Bell Potter provides its first estimate of the earnings outlook for Arcadium Lithium and sets a $12.10 target price. Buy.

The combined group provides the largest, most diversified exposure to lithium in terms of mode of upstream production, asset locations, downstream processing and customer markets, explains the broker.

Shares are also listed on the NYSE with a code of ALTM.

Target price is $12.10 Current Price is $8.09 Difference: $4.01
If LTM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.24, suggesting upside of 63.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LTM as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Citi initiates coverage of Arcadium Lithium, a product of the late-2023 merger between Allkem and Livent, with a Buy rating and $10.75 target price.

The analysts highlight Arcadium provides the only exposure on the ASX to a fully integrated lithium product suite. The quality, cost and size of the upstream portfolio, along with the company's growth outlook, is considered a standout compared to peers.

On the prospects for growth, Citi sees unique positioning with Sal de Vida, and two Canadian integrated spodumene projects, James Bay and Nemaska. Production is expected to double by the end of the decade.

The broker also sees limited downside to current spot lithium pricing.

Target price is $10.75 Current Price is $8.09 Difference: $2.66
If LTM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.24, suggesting upside of 63.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LTR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter lowers its near-term lithium price outlook due to recent additions to mine supply, and the severe impact of supply chain de-stocking on spot prices.

The broker now sees FY24 spodumene concentrate (SC6) prices averaging US$1,100/t, down from US$2,500/t, and forecasts lithium hydroxide prices will average US$18,125/t (previously US$32,500/t).

In the longer-term, Bell Potter sees risks of market deficits and the need for significant investment in new supply.

The Speculative Buy rating is kept for Liontown Resources (the broker's preferred ASX-listed lithium developer) and the target falls to $2.25 from $2.75.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $1.055
If LTR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 88% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.86, suggesting upside of 97.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MHJ as Neutral (3) -

Following Michael Hill's 2H trading update, Citi cuts its FY24 and FY25 core EPS forecasts by -24% and -12%, respectively, to 
reflect softer-than-expected sales and gross margins.

Not only is the jewellery category underperforming relative to other categories, explain the analysts, but also the brand elevation strategy is having less of a positive impact on margins than originally forecast.

Despite lower earnings forecasts, the broker's target rises to 86c from 79c on a valuation roll forward and after taking into account higher peer multiples. Neutral.

Target price is $0.86 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If MHJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MHJ as Outperform (1) -

Michael Hill's 1H24 trading update noted deteriorating trading conditions and higher input costs underpinning materially lower earnings than forecast. Macquarie admits it proved to be overly optimistic with regard to the trading performance, especially with respect to high-end discretionary spending.

Core Michael Hill sales were down -10% in A&NZ. Coupled with a -350/400bp contraction in margins due to peak pricing in gold and diamonds, comparable earnings guidance 1H24 is well below the broker's forecast.

While near-term earnings headwinds exist, Macquarie considers FY24 to represent an earnings nadir. With Michael Hill showing signs of gaining market share, and earnings momentum on the cusp of turning, the broker retains Outperform.

Target falls to $1.10 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: $0.21
If MHJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MYS as Buy (1) -

Australian banks face low credit growth, softer net interest margins and an increase in loan losses in the short term, Ord Minnett suggests. But the broker expects loan and deposit pricing changes will lift margins sufficiently to generate returns above the cost of equity.

Ord Minnett declares Mystate to be the cheapest name in its bank coverage. Buy and $5.00 target retained.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $3.14 Difference: $1.86
If MYS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ORR as Speculative Hold (3) -

Under a new Bid Implementation Deed, replacing the previously proposed Scheme Implementation Deed, Silvercorp Metals Inc has agreed to acquire (via an off-market takeover offer), all of the OreCorp shares it does not already own.

The parties have agreed to a restructured offer with a lower minimum acceptance hurdle of 50.1%, as opposed to the 75% required
by the original Scheme. There is no change in the consideration terms.

Bell Potter suggests the new acceptance hurdle is a positive in that it keeps the transaction open and OreCorp in-play. The target is increased to 58c from 53. Speculative Hold.

Target price is $0.58 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.05
If ORR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PFP as Buy (1) -

Back on December 19, Bell Potter released updated research on Propel Funeral Partners following the announcement of three acquisitions in regional A&NZ for -$10.6m.

As a result of these transactions, the broker raised its target price for Propel to $5.90 from $5.70 and retained a Buy recommendation.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $5.31 Difference: $0.59
If PFP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.98, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLL as Outperform (1) -

Piedmont Lithium has announced the sale of a portion of Atlantic Lithium shares to Assore, which currently is the largest shareholder of Atlantic. Macquarie notes the price represents a 14% premium to last close price.

This share sale transaction does not impact Piedmont's joint venture and offtake at the Ewoyaa project level.

Higher sales to Piedmont from North American Lithium are expected in 2024, the broker notes, boosting near-term cash flow generation for Piedmont. Outperform and 60c target retained.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.315
If PLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 111% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PLS as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter lowers its near-term lithium price outlook due to recent additions to mine supply, and the severe impact of supply chain de-stocking on spot prices.

The broker now sees FY24 spodumene concentrate (SC6) prices averaging US$1,100/t, down from US$2,500/t, and forecasts lithium hydroxide prices will average US$18,125/t (previously US$32,500/t).

In the longer-term, Bell Potter sees risks of market deficits and the need for significant investment in new supply.

The Hold rating is unchanged for Pilbara Minerals and the target falls to $3.60 from $3.90.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.47 Difference: $0.13
If PLS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.80, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SM1 as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Back on December 22, Bell Potter lowered its rating for Synlait Milk to Hold from Buy and reduced its target to 95c from $1.50, due to a  higher assumed risk profile.

In justifying these changes, the broker noted both the drawn out sale of the Dairyworks business (ahead of upcoming debt payments) and the ongoing dispute with a2 Milk Co ((A2M)). 

The analysts felt a recapitalisation may be required to meet NZ$310m of debt obligations in 2024, unless the Dairyworks sale was executed.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.82 Difference: $0.13
If SM1 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SMI as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter explains Santana Minerals is awaiting one last batch of infill drilling results before commencing an update for the Rise-and-Shine deposit mineral resource estimate (MRE) at the Bendigo-Ophir project in New Zealand.

The price target jumps to $1.80 from $1.45 on a number of changes to the broker's forecast including a reduced capital raising valuation discount for construction, given recent share price appreciation. Bell Potter's gold price forecasts are also increased.

The Speculative Buy rating is unchanged. It's felt Santana Minerals will continue to be re-rated upon achieving the project's development, approvals and funding milestones.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.29 Difference: $0.51
If SMI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SVW as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Bell Potter increases its target for Seven Group to $38 from $33 after assuming a higher terminal growth rate of 3.5%, up from 3% and a lower weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.8%, down from 9.3%. Changes are driven by lower near-term risk-free rate expectations.

The broker has also initiated coverage of Boral (see in today's Broker Call Report) with only a minor impact on Bell Potter's Seven Group's EPS forecasts.

The rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy with no explanation given in the broker's research note.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $34.32 Difference: $3.68
If SVW meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.40, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TCL as Outperform (1) -

Transurban Group's 3Q23 traffic was a bit contained, Macquarie notes, mainly in Sydney by road works. This has not changed, but the macro backdrop for road usage is strong.

25-year-high population growth, registration growth in Melbourne and Brisbane at highs, strong employment, and 10% airport pax volume growth for 4Q23 are supportive.

As the CPI drops below 1% for 4Q23 the fixed price of Citylink and minimum 1% ratchets at for other roads ensure real price growth.

Growth options yet to emerge to the point Transurban can exercise them, Macquarie notes, but they remain, with Transurban Queensland and US most material.

Target falls to $13.40 from $13.65 on higher funding costs, Outperform retained.

Target price is $13.40 Current Price is $13.10 Difference: $0.3
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.02, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WBC as Accumulate (2) -

Australian banks face low credit growth, softer net interest margins and an increase in loan losses in the short term, Ord Minnett suggests. But the broker expects loan and deposit pricing changes will lift margins sufficiently to generate returns above the cost of equity.

The broker believes Westpac and ANZ Bank show the best value of the majors having addressed market concerns around lacklustre loan growth, and the next catalyst will be delivery of operating efficiencies.

Accumulate and $28 target retained for Westpac.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $23.20 Difference: $4.8
If WBC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.49, suggesting downside of -3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates WHC as Sell (5) -

Bell Potter notes adverse geological features and longwall reliability issues impacted Narrabri run-of-mine (ROM) production in the 2Q, yet group ROM production of 5mt slightly exceeded the broker's 4.9mt forecast. 

An average sales price of $216/t was achieved for the quarter, a miss against the broker's $253/t estimate.

Management's FY24 guidance was largely maintained, with open cut volumes expected to offset a downgrade in Narrabri production.

Bell Potter raises its target to $7.65 from $7.25 and the Sell rating is maintained.

Target price is $7.65 Current Price is $8.11 Difference: minus $0.46 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.27, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Following last Friday's production results for Whitehaven Coal, Citi decides to leave its Buy rating and $9.40 target unchanged.

The broker increases its FY24 earnings (EBITDA) and profit estimates by 32% and 36%, respectively after incorporating the Daunia and Blackwater acquisition.

The broker's initial research note was summarised as follows:

Second quarter run-of-mine coal production for Whitehaven Coal fell by -6% quarter-on-quarter (due to lower production at the Narrabri operations), though still exceeded Citi's forecast by 10%. 

After an initial glance at today's announcement, the broker highlights Narrabri experienced both geological complications and equipment issues.

Management's FY24 ROM and sales guidance are unchanged, but the production mix is anticipated to lean towards open-cut operations, explains Citi. Narrabri’s FY24 ROM production guidance was revised down to 5.1-5.7mt from 6.0-6.7mt.

The higher expected contribution from open-cut operations, means FY24 costs are headed towards the top end of the guidance range of US$103-113/t, explains the broker.

Target price is $9.40 Current Price is $8.11 Difference: $1.29
If WHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.27, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WHC as No Rating (-1) -

Whitehaven Coal's Dec Q production and sales were solid, Macquarie suggests, with strong open cut volumes offsetting weak production at Narrabri. Group FY24 guidance has been maintained, skewed to open cut operations as Narrabri volume guidance is downgraded by -15%.

Whitehaven has a net cash position of $1.5bn, however the Daunia and Blackwater acquisitions could materially impact the balance sheet, the broker notes.

Macquarie is currently under research restriction.

Current Price is $8.11. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $8.27, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

Whitehaven Coal's 2Q run-of-mine (ROM) production was a beat compared to forecasts by Morgan Stanley and consensus of 9% and 8%, respectively. The result was driven by 3% above-consensus production at Maules Creek, which experienced the strongest 1H since FY19.

Management lowered FY24 production guidance at Narrabri, where there was weaker-than-expected 2Q production and poor metallurgical coal realisation, explain the analysts. Group production guidance for FY24 was maintained.

Target $8.95. Overweight. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $8.95 Current Price is $8.11 Difference: $0.84
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.27, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WHC as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Mixed 2Q production results for Whitehaven Coal didn't greatly change Morgans investment view. It's felt the acquisition of the BHP Mitsubishi Alliance's (BMA) assets is progressing strongly and can transform appeal of the company's shares due to superior scale, diversification and investor reach.

Sales in the Q2 were a 10% beat versus the broker's forecast, while achieved pricing was a -13% miss on lower-than-expected NEWC pricing, explains the analyst.

Given the share price has risen to within 10% of the new target of $8.50 (down from $8.60), Morgans downgrades its rating to Hold from Add.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $8.11 Difference: $0.39
If WHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.27, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WHC as Accumulate (2) -

Whitehaven Coal’s 2Q24 result was mixed, Ord Minnett notes, with a slightly softer cash balance paired against higher sales volumes.
Importantly, the Blackwater/Daunia acquisition remains on track to settle in early April.

Production guidance for the group remains unchanged as better production from the open cut operations offset weakness at Narrabri, which has been downgraded by -15%, while forecast capex is being rationed in preparation for the acquisition.

Target falls to $8.80 from $9.10 to account for a lower cash balance and production expectations, Accumulate retained.

Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $8.11 Difference: $0.69
If WHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.27, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ZIP as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Zip Co' s business is now generating positive cash earnings, Ord Minnett notes, the balance sheet has been improved and simplified and the stock is trading at a significant discount to the broker's revised target of 75c, up from 42c.

The changes that the company has undergone over the last six months have greatly improved Zip Co's investment potential, Ord Minnett suggests.

The recent launch of the Zip Plus product will assist with driving revenue in the A&NZ business, and the broker expects this to be a higher yielding product than the Zip Pay offering.

Upgrade to Buy from Hold.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.64 Difference: $0.115
If ZIP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.54, suggesting downside of -26.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources