Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday August 31 to Friday September 4, 2026
Total Upgrades: 10
Total Downgrades: 20
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 61.43%; Hold 31.31%; Sell 7.26%
For the week ending Friday, 4 September 2026, which included the final day of the August reporting season, the seven stockbrokers monitored daily by FNArena issued ten ratings upgrades and twenty downgrades for individual ASX-listed companies.
Telstra Group received two ratings upgrades to Buy along with a further upgrade outside daily coverage by Barrenjoey to Buy-equivalent following share price weakness post FY26 results.
Analysts see sufficient capacity within the group for annual dividend growth and increasing buybacks: https://fnarena.com/2026/09/03/treasure-chest-telstra-group/
Satellite competition is also seen as a longer-term risk, with both Ord Minnett and Barrenjoey suggesting Australia is less exposed to direct mobile substitution than peers in the US.
Last week’s update highlighted two ratings downgrades by Macquarie and Bell Potter for Smartgroup Corp following interim results due to a stretched valuation.
Later research by Morgan Stanley last week countered with an upgrade to Overweight (Buy equivalent) describing a solid result overshadowed by a share price sell-off driven by mismatched expectations.
In this broker’s view, share price weakness has created an attractive entry point into a beneficiary of Australia’s structural transition to electric vehicles.
Morgans also upgraded its rating, to Accumulate (one notch below Buy) from Hold, highlighting a stronger 2H outlook as a substantial revenue pipeline converts.
Further share price support is expected from favourable policy-driven demand for novated leasing and potential capital management initiatives later in the year.
As can be seen in the tables below, rises in average target prices last week slightly outweighed falls, with most of these changes explained in FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor: https://fnarena.com/2026/09/04/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-04-09-2026/
Dicker Data and GrainCorp received the largest increases in consensus targets of 36% and 12%, respectively.
Australian technology distributor Dicker Data’s first-half sales rose 14% to $2.1bn, while profit before tax increased 50% to $86m, beating consensus by 15%.
The business involves buying hardware, software and cloud products from vendors such as Microsoft, Cisco, HP and CrowdStrike, then supplying them to thousands of IT resellers that sell and support the products for (mostly SME) businesses and government agencies.
Ord Minnett highlights accelerating demand from device refreshes, software, data centres and artificial intelligence projects.
While FY26 guidance also exceeded this broker’s expectations (prompting EPS upgrades of 13%-19% over FY27-FY29), Ord Minnett downgraded its rating to Hold from Buy on valuation.
Favouring GrainCorp’s business, Bell Potter highlighted a 12% upgrade to ABARE's 2026-27 east coast winter crop forecast, reflecting improved growing conditions across south-eastern Australia.
A potentially disastrous forecast was anticipated by Ord Minnett because of below-average rainfall across major growing areas through to May, as well as rising fertiliser costs.
Macquarie also noted ongoing tensions in the Black Sea region support wheat prices and GrainCorp's export business. The impact of El Nino conditions is considered the key unknown.
Bell Potter also referred to potential upside from grain and oilseed crush margins, which are currently around their most favourable levels for GrainCorp in three years.
By contrast, average targets for Objective Corp and Regis Healthcare fell by -23% and -21%, respectively.
Morgan Stanley reduced its target for software company Objective Corp by -55% to $7.25 and downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight after FY26 annual recurring revenue materially missed forecasts.
Objective serves government agencies and regulated organisations by helping manage documents, records, information and regulatory processes securely.
Two significant customer losses and the withdrawal of revenue growth guidance have weakened visibility, in the broker’s opinion, while another smaller recurring-revenue contract may be offloaded.
Investment in research and development continues, noted the analysts, while acquisitions are again under consideration.
Share in Regis Healthcare fell materially last week after the Federal Government announced a 2.6% increase in aged care funding from October, well below market expectations.
As pointed out by UBS, this outcome was well short of the cost inflation faced by Regis Healthcare and other providers of residential aged care.
Macquarie noted cost savings, room price increases and operational efficiencies will provide some offsets.
Strong occupancy, cash generation and balance-sheet capacity are also expected to support the medium-term outlook.
While rises in average earnings forecasts far outweigh falls in the tables below, it’s important to note any percentage change may be exaggerated during the reporting season as the comparison is no longer like-for-like.
Many upward/downward revisions reflect brokers rolling their financial models forward to FY27 and beyond following the release of FY26 results.
This is how, for example, earnings forecasts for lithium exposure Liontown and medical technology company EchoIQ rose materially, despite both disappointing with financial performances in FY26.
The average earnings forecast for Austal also jumped. This company is an Australian shipbuilder specialising in defence and commercial vessels.
While Austal's FY26 earnings (EBIT) loss of -$125m was worse than expected, given guidance for a -$113m loss was provided on August 11, Citi highlighted unusually positive commentary from management on the outlook for the Australasian business.
Citi believes the market continues to value Austal as a volatile shipbuilder, placing too much emphasis on issues within the US business. Scope is seen for a re-rating if management successfully executes on the company’s long-duration order book.
On the flipside, consensus FY27 earnings forecasts for builder and operator of data centres NextDC and uranium producer Boss Energy fell by -28% apiece.
First impressions can deceive though, as after three years of heavy data centre investment, NextDC has reached an inflection point from which earnings are set to accelerate: https://fnarena.com/2026/09/03/nextdcs-1bn-profit-by-fy30/
Last week, Bell Potter highlighted Boss Energy’s updated Honeymoon feasibility study and mineral resource, with the June 2026 resource around -15Mlbs below the 2019 estimate, largely reflecting depletion.
FY27 production guidance of 1.25Mlbs-1.30Mlbs came in below FY26 production of 1.41Mlbs, while C1 costs are expected to rise to -$51/lb-$56/lb from -$39/lb.
In reaction, Bell Potter cut its FY27 and FY28 EPS forecasts by -56% and -32%, respectively, lowered its target to $1.70 from $1.80 and retained its Buy rating.
Neutral-rated Citi (unchanged $1.45 target) noted progress on water treatment and surface infrastructure will be critical in determining how quickly improved wellfield performance translates into higher production.
Total Buy ratings in the FNArena database fell to 61.43% from 63.73%. Neutral/Hold ratings rose to 31.31% from 29.35%, while Sell ratings accounted for the remaining 7.26%.
Upgrade
AUSTAL LIMITED ((ASB)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 2/1/0
Post earnings call, Citi believes the risk of Hanwha returning with a lower price post due diligence seems less than previously anticipated with Hanwha aware of the US contract details prior to making its proposal.
The analyst believes the market continues to value Austal as a "volatile" shipbuilder with too much emphasis on US issues. There is believed to be scope for the stock to re-rate over time if management are successful on their execution on the long-duration order book.
The stock is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target lifts to $5.75 from $5.07.
First take: Citi's assessment is that Austal's FY26 release not only showed revenue missing consensus by some -8%, the bottom line has descended into the negative, showing a net loss of -$53.6m from a profit in the year prior.
A weaker performance in the US has meant EBIT of -$125m falls short of management's own guidance for -$113m, commentary points out. Guidance is for a return to profitability in FY27.
Citi suggests investors are likely to direct their focus on the bullish Australasian revenue outlook without taking into account margin risk on newer projects.
Meanwhile, whatever happens with Hanwha and Austal USA will remain in focus, with Citi stating investors want clarity on what exactly is there in terms of tax leakage assuming the deal concludes successfully.
Citi believes the risk of Hanwha lowering its proposed price for Austal following due diligence has diminished. Management indicated Hanwha was aware of the US contract issues before submitting its proposal.
The broker also highlights unusually positive commentary from management (following FY26 results) on the outlook for the Australasian business. Potential for Hanwha to unlock value from Austal's US operations was also noted.
While there remains no certainty a transaction will proceed, Citi considers management's tone notably positive.
Neutral rating and $5.07 target unchanged.
COBRAM ESTATE OLIVES LIMITED ((CBO)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/0/0
Cobram Estate Olives' FY26 underlying earnings (EBITDA) of $61.4m came in circa -10% below Ord Minnett's forecast, largely due to a lower-than-expected non-cash fair value adjustment to Australian inventory.
The broker remains positive on the US business, with earnings of $9.4m ahead of expectations and synergies from the California Olive Ranch acquisition tracking to plan.
Ord Minnett expects working capital movements and investment in US expansion that weighed on FY26 cash flow to become tailwinds in FY27.
The broker cuts its target to $3.58 from $3.77 and upgrades its rating to Buy from Accumulate.
CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT ((CIP)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/4/0
Morgans upgrades Centuria Industrial REIT to Accumulate from Hold with a higher target of $3.25 from $3.15.
FY26 FFO and distribution were in line with guidance but at the lower end of the upgraded target range, the analyst points out and -1% below forecast.
Like-for-like net operating income growth of 5.2% was generated with a near-record 226,200 sqm leasing completed and spreads eased to 30%.
The broker sees the 6% distribution as being able to continue to grow as rental income also advances via positive rent reversion and lease indexation.
DALRYMPLE BAY INFRASTRUCTURE LIMITED ((DBI)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/0/0
On account of the pullback in the share price, Morgans upgrades Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure to Accumulate from Hold with a higher target price of $5.47 from $5.43 due to slight changes in tax assumptions.
The analyst forecasts a 28.6c DPS paid quarterly for the year to June 2027 with DPS growth guidance of 3%-7%/year over the foreseeable future.
Earnings are underpinned by CPI-linked base charges and additional earnings on commissioned NECAP (non-expansionary capex) projects.
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