Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday September 7 to Friday September 11, 2026
Total Upgrades: 16
Total Downgrades: 15
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 61.59%; Hold 30.98%; Sell 7.43%
For the week ending Friday, 11 September 2026, the seven stockbrokers monitored daily by FNArena issued sixteen ratings upgrades and fifteen downgrades for individual ASX-listed companies.
As the tables below show, increases and decreases in average target prices were broadly balanced last week, while earnings forecast upgrades slightly outweighed downgrades.
Unfortunately for shareholders in medical-technology company EchoIQ, the company tops the tables for the largest percentage declines in both target prices and earnings forecasts.
EchoIQ develops artificial intelligence software that analyses routine echocardiogram measurements to help clinicians detect structural heart disease.
Identifying patients at risk of severe aortic stenosis, EchoSolv AS has already achieved US regulatory clearance, but last week the company’s EchoSolv heart failure (HF) software received a Not Substantially Equivalent (NSE) determination from the FDA on the company’s 510 (k) application for registration.
Bell Potter noted management disclosed little about the content of the determination, indicating only that the disagreement concerned statistical analysis.
Seeing plenty of questions and not many answers at the time, the broker lowered its target for EchoIQ to 30c from $1.75 and downgraded its rating to Speculative Hold from Speculative Buy.
While Morgans and Ord Minnett retained their Buy ratings, respective targets were lowered to $1.10 from $1.85 and to $1.55 from $2.00.
Consensus targets for audio entertainment and advertising company ARN Media and Australian REIT Abacus Group also fell by -21% and -9%, respectively.
ARN operates 58 commercial radio stations across 33 metropolitan and regional markets, including the KIIS, GOLD and CADA networks, along with iHeart in Australia, which provides music streaming, podcasts, digital radio and increasingly video content.
As explained in the final version of FNArena’s Corporate Results monitor for the 2026 August reporting season at https://fnarena.com/2026/09/04/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-04-09-2026/, ARN’s first half topline and earnings missed consensus by -24%.
While the company’s interim results were released on August 21, Ord Minnett only last week refreshed its forecasts, lowering its target by half to 20c and downgrading to Sell from Accumulate.
Advertising markets remain subdued yet ARN Media’s earnings slowdown also reflected brand-safety concerns surrounding the KIIS Breakfast program, the broker explained.
While contributing to lost advertising revenue share, management felt these concerns have now been resolved.
Management estimates these factors reduced 1H26 revenue by around -$10m, noting the absence of federal election advertising that benefited the prior period.
Ord Minnett believes the longer-term growth outlook for ARN Media increasingly rests on digital audio.
Following its separation from Abacus Storage King, Abacus Group is now primarily an office landlord, complemented by a smaller retail portfolio.
The operations of Abacus Storage King remain listed on the ASX under the new name of Storage King Group ((SKG)) following the internalisation of its management on June 30, 2026.
With the RBA cash rate potentially remaining at 4.6% indefinitely, Ord Minnett felt higher interest costs would pressure property-sector earnings and capitalisation rates would rise by around 50bps over the next year, including 90bps for the more vulnerable office sector.
As a result, Ord Minnett last week reduced its target for Abacus Group to 90c from $1.05 and retained a Hold rating, reflecting post-Storage King changes in strategy and loss of future management fees.
Western Australian gold producer Ora Banda Mining ranks second for declines in average earnings forecast after Ord Minnett updated for FY26 results on August 26 and UBS adjusted its gold price forecasts.
According to the Results Monitor (updated prior to Ord Minnet’s research), Ora Banda achieved an overall “in line” outcome when FY26 results and the outlook are taken into account.
Ord Minnett noted a proposed 3mtpa processing plant and two new mines (at the Davyhurst Gold Project in Western Australia) could lift production to around 300kozpa by FY30.
The current 610koz reserve is considered relatively modest compared with the 3.7moz resource.
The average earnings forecasts of brokers in the FNArena database researching lithium producer Liontown and gold producer Westgold Resources also fell by -14% and -10%, respectively.
Citi lowered its target for Neutral-rated Liontown by -5c to $1.30 despite seeing upside risk to 2027 lithium prices, with potential disruptions in China and Zimbabwe placing around 18% of forecast global supply at risk.
Chinese battery production and exports have risen 53% and 43% year-to-date, respectively, the broker noted.
Buy-rated PLS Group remains the preferred exposure for its scale, low costs, balance sheet and growth.
Three brokers in the database updated their research for Westgold last week following the release of FY27 guidance and management’s three-year outlook presentation.
Production and costs (AISC) within the presentation were broadly in line with consensus expectations, according to Macquarie, but capex was around -36% worse/ (higher)-than-expected.
Ord Minnett, which downgraded its rating to Accumulate from Buy, attributed this capex deterioration to cost inflation and additional underground development, ventilation and satellite-pit expenditure.
Within the UBS financial model for Westgold, the Southern Goldfields expansion is deferred by two years and Murchison volume assumptions are lowered, reducing forecast production across FY27-FY29 by a cumulative -233koz, or -15%.
Woodside Energy’s average earnings forecast also fell by just over -4% last week, despite Citi raising its near-term oil and global gas price forecasts following Brent's rise to US$100/bbl and disruption to Middle Eastern energy supplies.
It's assumed the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted before reopening in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Woodside outperformed the market’s expectations for both interim earnings and dividends when releasing interim results on August 25: https://fnarena.com/2026/09/09/woodside-aims-to-maximise-shareholder-returns/
Turning to rises in targets, here automotive aftermarket parts distributor and retailer Bapcor stands out with a 16% increase after Morgans updated its research following consensus-beating FY26 results on August 27 (commentary available in the Monitor).
Morgans decided to raise its target to 88c from 41c and upgraded to Hold from Trim as evidence emerges a turnaround is gaining traction.
Next up are gold and antimony producer Alkane Resources and gold development and exploration company Minerals 260 with rises in average targets of around 10% apiece.
Both companies benefited after UBS last week raised its long-term gold price to by US$500/oz to US$3,750/oz.
This broker’s price targets across its gold coverage were increased by between 4%-39% on the gold price update, partially offset by new long-term cost and capex assumptions.
Benefitting from the same report by UBS, Bellevue Gold heads up the list for percentage gain in earnings forecasts.
Bellevue and Westgold Resources are now preferred within Macquarie’s mid-cap coverage.
An undemanding valuation is noted for Bellevue, trading at 4.4x FY27 EV/EBITDA with a 13% free cash flow (FCF) yield. The balance sheet is also expected to move to net cash in 2H27.
Southern Cross Media and Superloop also feature with rises in average earnings forecasts of 62% and 9%, respectively.
Southern Cross Media’s early-August FY26 results and outlook were judged a ‘miss’ in the Monitor yet its average earnings forecast rose last week due to the inclusion of Ord Minnett’s forecasts in the FNArena database after a hiatus in research.
In a delayed reaction to FY26 results, the broker lowered its target by -15c to 60c and downgraded to Hold from Buy after poor advertising visibility resulted in a cut to FY27 and FY28 earnings forecasts of around -20%.
Citi raised its earnings forecast for Superloop, which provides internet and connectivity services to households, businesses and wholesale customers, after reviewing August telecommunications data, involving monthly app downloads, active users and unique web visitors.
Superloop maintained strong download momentum, with the broker viewing the recent share-price decline following the absence of a trading update as overdone.
GrainCorp appears third on the average earnings upgrade table with a rise of around 16%.
GrainCorp was also the only company to receive two ratings downgrades last week, while Morgans upgraded its rating following share-price weakness after a business update.
The outlook for FY27 is better, according to Morgans, from a combination of a larger-than-expected grain crop for 2026/27, improving canola-crush and grain-trading conditions, as well as business transformation positives.
In contrast, Ord Minnett downgraded to Accumulate from Buy, highlighting another cost overrun and delay for the company’s Business Transformation Program.
While the crop and margin outlook are seen as constructive, Macquarie anticipates limited further upside to its earnings forecasts at this stage and downgraded its rating to Neutral from Outperform.
Buy ratings represent 61.59% of all ratings in the FNArena database. Neutral/Hold ratings are 30.98%, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 7.43%.
Upgrade
ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED ((ALK)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 3/0/0
UBS has increased its long-term gold price to US$3,750/oz, up US$500/oz, which equates to around $5,350/oz in AUD terms, that is some 13% above the broker's prior assumptions. The WA industry has applied $4,500/oz for budgeting.
The new forecast sits some -20% below the current unchanged 2027 price forecast of US$4,800/oz, versus the spot around US$4,400/oz, and aligns with long-term consensus forecasts, the broker highlights.
UBS also forecasts a rise in AISC up 70% for FY27 for gold producers and up 110% over the last three years.
Alkane Resources is upgraded to Buy from Neutral with a higher target of $2.35, from $2.00.
ARENA REIT ((ARF)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/1/1
In light of the prospect for the RBA's cash rate to remain at 4.6% indefinitely, Ord Minnett has reviewed its property sector coverage.
There are two impacts: one from a further rise in interest rate costs, which has scope to lower earnings forecasts, and the negative impact on property values and thus target prices.
The broker flags an expected rise in cap rates by around 50bps over the next 12 months, with the office sector most "vulnerable", where cap rates are forecast to expand by some 90bps.
For Arena REIT, the target price slips to $2.75 from $2.85. The stock is upgraded to Buy from Hold rating.
The analyst notes 100% occupancy and like-for-like rental income rises averaging 4% at the FY26 result, which was superseded by Edge Early Learning going into voluntary administration.
BAPCOR LIMITED ((BAP)) Upgrade to Hold from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/4/1
Morgans raises its target for Bapcor to $0.88 from $0.41 and upgrades to Hold from Trim as evidence emerges a turnaround is gaining traction.
FY26 earnings (EBITDA) of $152.5m fell -35% but exceeded the top of guidance by 2%, the analyst observes. Like-for-like sales also improved to 0.4% growth over the final five months and remained slightly positive in FY27.
Free cash flow (FCF) increased to $55.2m and the equity raising reduced net debt to $135m, lowering leverage to 1.72 times.
FY27, FY28 and FY29 EPS forecasts are raised by 10%, 19% and 15%, respectively, though Morgans awaits evidence of sustained progress.
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