Weekly Reports | 11:00 AM
A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past.
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
Upgrade
GREATLAND RESOURCES LIMITED ((GGP)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Moelis upgrades its rating for Greatland Resources to Hold from Sell with its target price decreased to $11.00 from $11.40 following a mark-to-market update incorporating revised consensus commodity price inputs.
Lower near-term gold price assumptions drive a -10% reduction in FY27 EBITDA estimates and a -11% decline in NPAT forecasts, reducing the near-term adjusted cash flow valuation by -14%.
Higher long-term gold prices alongside an expanded EV/resource multiple lift the net asset valuation by 3%.
The analyst notes the company possesses greater operating leverage to gold prices relative to peers, amplifying the impact of lower near-term spot prices.
Weaker near-term cash flow valuations offset the net asset value gains to drive the overall target price reduction.
IMDEX LIMITED ((IMD)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden raises its rating for Imdex to Neutral from Underweight with a $3.55 target price following a 1Q27 trading update featuring headline revenue growth of 31%.
Supported by underlying demand, headline revenue benefited from M&A contributions including Krux and Data Rock.
Excluding the M&A contribution, Jarden estimates underlying growth was -21%.
The analyst notes recent share price underperformance and contracting forward valuation multiples now reflect better risk and reward symmetry for investors.
METALS X LIMITED ((MLX)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Shaw and Partners.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Shaw and Partners upgrades its rating for Metals X to Buy from Hold with its target price maintained at $1.90 following a -24% share price decline over the past month despite LME tin prices holding above US$50,000/t.
Operational performance at the Renison tin mine is tracking ahead of forecasts, with 1H26 tin production of 5,696t and revenue of $204.7m annualising to 11,400t and $409m against Shaw and Partners's FY26 estimates of 10,739t and $392m.
A debt-free balance sheet holding $374m in net cash provides substantial capital flexibility to fund the non-binding 15p proposal for First Tin alongside modelled Rentails concentrator capital expenditure.
The analyst notes tight global supply, low LME inventories, and growing AI-driven soldering demand continue to underpin physical tin market fundamentals.
Key near-term operational catalysts include an updated Renison life-of-mine plan this quarter and the Rentails front-end engineering design completion targeted for late 2026 or early 2027.
NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED ((NST)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden lifts its rating for Northern Star Resources to Neutral from Underweight with its target price decreased to $24.00 from $24.20 following a September quarter production report featuring 354koz of gold.
Cash generation proved unexpectedly weak during the period, prompting the company to draw down -$500m in debt to fund the final FY26 dividend payment.
Realised gold prices fell -9% short of consensus expectations at roughly $5,000/oz, heavily dragged down by the existing hedge book and reduced payability on KCGM concentrate sales.
The analyst delays Hemi final investment decision expectations to late 2027 and pushes first production to FY31, driving a -4% reduction in FY27 EBITDA estimates to $4,461m.
Despite these operational challenges, Jarden upgrades the stock due to the high probability of further corporate approaches from Gold Fields or other suitors following the recently rejected $27.00 per share takeover proposal.
NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED ((NWL)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden upgrades its rating for Netwealth Group to Overweight from Neutral with its target price unchanged at $19.40 following an industry review of net flow weakness across Investor Directed Portfolio Services.
The analyst views the current downturn as a normal cyclical event rather than a structural decline, driven by combined macroeconomic headwinds including rising cash rates, property price reductions, and tax policy uncertainty.
Consensus expectations have reset -8% lower to $16.6bn for forecast FY27 net flows, falling below the official $17bn to $19bn guidance range but aligning with Jarden's estimate of $16.7bn.
With flow expectations appropriately rebased, Jarden observes a positive risk-reward skew for the stock trading at a 1.5x relative price-to-earnings multiple, sitting two standard deviations below the historical 3.0x average.
The underlying forecast model retains a strong second-half weighting of $10.2bn in anticipated net flows versus $6.5bn in the first half, largely reflecting scheduled Morgan Stanley transitions.
ORA BANDA MINING LIMITED ((OBM)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Moelis upgrades its rating for Ora Banda Mining to Buy from Hold with its target price decreased to $1.55 from $1.60 following updated commodity price and foreign exchange inputs.
Lower near-term gold prices drive a -13% reduction in FY27 EBITDA and a -21% reduction in net profit, leading to a -14% reduction in the adjusted cash flow valuation.
Higher long-term gold prices and an increased enterprise value to resource multiple lift the net asset valuation by 2%.
The analyst observes the overall price target decrease reflects weaker near-term cash flow valuation outweighing the modest net asset valuation gains.
PWR HOLDINGS LIMITED ((PWH)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Moelis lifts its rating for PWR Holdings to Buy from Hold with its target price increased to $12.77 from $12.49 following upgraded FY27 guidance after securing a US$4.6m pre-contract order for a major US defence opportunity.
Aerospace and defence revenue growth guidance is upgraded to approximately 50% in FY27 from approximately 30% previously, supported by 1H-weighted shipments of a $17m follow-on US government defence contract and commencement of the Ford Mustang S650 program.
Management maintains FY27 net profit after tax margin expectations at 12.5%, representing a 2 percentage point improvement while absorbing initial operational costs for a new facility in Poland under a 10-year lease.
The analyst increases FY27 EPS estimates by 4.2% to 24.0c while keeping outer-year earnings forecasts broadly unchanged.
Moelis highlights increased confidence in pipeline conversion, viewing the pre-contract order as an early indication of ability to secure long-term defence opportunities.
REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RRL)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Canaccord Genuity upgraded its rating for Regis Resources to Buy from Hold with its target price decreased to $8.35 from $8.40 following a September quarter 2026 update featuring gold production of 83koz, down -18% quarter-on-quarter due to operational rainfall disruptions.
Group AISC increased 12% quarter-on-quarter to $3,617/oz, sitting 15% above Canaccord Genuity's estimates due to lower output and elevated diesel prices.
Cash and bullion grew $93m quarter-on-quarter to $1.28bn, supported by $454m in gold sales revenue and receipt of the $51m Vault break fee, despite growth capital expenditure of -$88m and tax payments of -$53m.
Management maintained FY27 production guidance of 360koz-400koz at an AISC of $2,990-3,390/oz, while shifting production weighting toward the second half following weather recovery timing.
The analyst lowers FY27 gold production forecasts slightly to 374koz at an AISC of $3,285/oz, noting a price-to-net asset value multiple of 0.82x supports the rating.
SOUTHERN CROSS ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING LIMITED ((SXE)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Shaw and Partners.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Shaw and Partners upgrades its rating on Southern Cross Electrical Engineering to Buy from Hold, with its target price unchanged at $5.20, citing an attractive buying opportunity following an -18% share price pullback from the 5 October 2026 high with no material deterioration in the earnings outlook.
Shaw and Partners views the sell-off as an overreaction given Southern Cross Electrical Engineering's exposure to three of Australia's strongest structural investment themes — data centres, infrastructure, and electrification — with data centre revenue expected to approximately triple in FY27.
Commentary highlights the recently announced acquisition of Entire Operations Pty Ltd adds HVAC capabilities, lifts FY27 EBITDA guidance to at least $110m, and expands recurring revenue streams, while Southern Cross retains balance sheet strength for further acquisitions.
Downgrade
ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED ((ALK)) Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Moelis maintains its Hold rating for Alkane Resources with its target price increased to $1.75 from $1.80 following an update incorporating September-quarter actual commodity prices alongside revised gold and copper pricing decks.
Lower near-term gold prices reduce FY27 and FY28 EBITDA forecasts by -13% and -2% respectively, alongside NPAT reductions of -17% and -2%, which lower the adjusted cash flow valuation by -1%.
Higher long-term gold prices and an increased EV/resource multiple lift net asset value by 6%.
The overall price target decreases by -3% because weaker near-term cash flows outweigh net asset value gains.
The analyst highlights that operational integration and the Tomingley expansion remain key catalysts for the business.
| Order | Company | New Rating | Old Rating | Broker | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrade | |||||
| 1 | GREATLAND RESOURCES LIMITED | Neutral | Sell | Moelis | |
| 2 | IMDEX LIMITED | Neutral | Sell | Jarden | |
| 3 | METALS X LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Shaw and Partners | |
| 4 | NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Jarden | |
| 5 | NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED | Neutral | Sell | Jarden | |
| 6 | ORA BANDA MINING LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Moelis | |
| 7 | PWR HOLDINGS LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Moelis | |
| 8 | REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Canaccord Genuity | |
| 9 | SOUTHERN CROSS ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Shaw and Partners | |
| Downgrade | |||||
| 10 | ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Moelis | |
The full story is for FNArena subscribers only. To read the full story plus enjoy a free two-week trial to our service SIGN UP HERE
If you already had your free trial, why not join as a paying subscriber? CLICK HERE