Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday October 19 to Friday October 23, 2026
Total Upgrades: 14
Total Downgrades: 16
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 64.70%; Hold 28.45%; Sell 6.85%
For the week ending Friday, 23 October 2026, the seven stockbrokers monitored daily by FNArena issued fourteen ratings upgrades and sixteen downgrades for individual ASX-listed companies, at face value reversing the trend of more ratings upgrades since mid-September.
A flurry of takeover activity prompted analysts to revisit forecasts this week following Daiichi Life Group’s $11.80-per share approach for Challenger, SG Fleet signing a binding agreement to buy FleetPartners Group for $5.30 per share in cash, and New Hope agreeing to acquire the remaining 74% of Malabar Resources.
As a result, there were rating upgrades for New Hope by two separate brokers and twin downgrades for Challenger and FleetPartners.
Excluding these acquisition-related changes, downgrades and upgrades kept each other in balance for the week.
Fleet leasing company FleetPartners also tops the table below with a 33% rise in its consensus target price.
The board unanimously supported the transaction, subject to an independent expert’s assessment and the absence of a superior proposal.
Shareholders could receive final and special dividends totalling up to 26c, deducted from the cash consideration, with associated franking credits providing additional value.
Targets for coal producer New Hope and retirement income specialist and fund manager Challenger rose by 7% and 5%, respectively.
Morgans noted New Hope’s Malabar acquisition would deliver full ownership of the Maxwell mine near Muswellbrook in NSW’s Upper Hunter Valley.
At steady-state production, the mine is expected to lift group saleable output around 60% from FY26 levels, with further upside anticipated from blending, refinancing and operating synergies with nearby Bengalla.
Ord Minnett raised its target to $6.40 from $5.20, reflecting stronger earnings prospects, improved share liquidity and potential inclusion in the ASX100.
For Challenger, Ord Minnett considered Daiichi’s approach opportunistic, arguing the price overlooks potential capital releases and leaves scope for improved terms.
Elsewhere, UBS could see strategic merit in combining Australia’s largest life insurer, TAL, with annuity provider Challenger.
Strong life business flows in the September quarter supported modest earnings upgrades by Ord Minnett, partly offset by a greater contribution from lower-margin institutional annuities.
Following its September quarter update showing net inflows in line with market expectation, Hub24 received rating upgrades to Buy from Morgans and Ord Minnett in the wake of recent share price weakness.
Platform net inflows of around $4.0bn met expectations, despite falling -23% against a record prior corresponding quarter.
Both brokers trimmed forecasts, but adviser recruitment and market share gains continue to support their longer-term confidence.
Morgans highlighted 211 additional advisers and 45 new licensee agreements, viewing the share price retreat as an increasingly attractive entry point for investors.
Superannuation flows proved more resilient than discretionary investment flows, supporting the broker’s confidence in the platform’s structural growth trajectory.
The tables below show percentage falls in targets and earnings forecasts outpaced the increases last week.
Business travel services provider Corporate Travel Management’s consensus target rose around 7% after the International Air Transport Association released a $65m security guarantee and restored standard settlement terms.
Morgan Stanley expected the restored 14-day payment cycle to release around $30m in working capital, reducing borrowing requirements and the risk for an equity raising.
Lower guarantee fees and interest costs supported earnings upgrades of 3%-5%, with the broker lifting its target to $3.20 from $2.60.
On the flipside, unwelcome updates from data centre operator NextDC and furniture retailer Nick Scali drove respective falls in average targets of -35% and -20%.
Management at NextDC cut FY27 earnings guidance by approximately -35% after power supply upgrades for its M3 Melbourne facility were delayed into FY28.
Morgan Stanley downgraded to Equal-weight, citing greater uncertainty around earnings growth, leverage and customer commitments.
Despite substantial Australian data centre growth opportunities, the broker believes the delay undermines confidence in NextDC’s anticipated acceleration in earnings growth.
While Morgans’ target halved to $7.50, this broker upgraded to a Buy rating after the significant share price sell-off.
It’s felt the current discount to net tangible assets is unwarranted if the power disruption proves temporary, though Morgans also acknowledged management needs to address heightened investor concerns.
Nick Scali guided to first-half profit of $28m-$32m, around -21% below consensus at the midpoint, with Ord Minnett pointing to deteriorating A&NZ orders, lower store traffic and softer-than-expected UK growth.
Despite cyber-related disruption, weaker customer traffic might reflect broader household budget pressures, the broker suggested.
Weaker-than-expected September quarter updates from toll road operator Atlas Arteria and gold producer Regis Resources prompted target cuts of around -10% and -8%, respectively.
For Atlas Arteria, proposed French tax increases compounded weaker traffic and rising bond yields.
Ord Minnett cut its target to $3.40 from $4.70 and lowered its forecast FY27-FY28 annual distributions to 35c from 40c, assuming the tax proposals proceed unchanged.
Morgans lowered its target for Regis Resources to $6.46 from $9.39 and downgraded to Hold from Buy following an analyst change and revised long-term production and cost assumptions.
September quarter production of 83,000oz missed consensus by -8.8%, while costs (AISC) of -$3,617/oz exceeded expectations as heavy rain disrupted mining and haulage.
FY27 guidance remains unchanged, though Morgans expects production near the lower end and costs slightly above the guided range.
Turning to earnings forecasts, lithium developer Wildcat Resources and uranium developer NexGen Energy recorded respective downgrades of -43% and -26%.
Ord Minnett highlighted spodumene pricing’s importance to funding Wildcat’s Tabba Tabba project in WA’s Pilbara region, while forecasting a lithium price recovery in 2027.
Ord Minnett also initiated research coverage on NexGen Energy with a Buy rating and $14.80 target, highlighting Canada’s high-grade Rook uranium project.
First production is expected by 2030, with output of 230mlbs over 11 years and development capex of -CA$2.75bn.
Long-term uranium pricing of US$100/lb is forecast by Ord Minnett, supported by growing nuclear demand and constrained supply.
Quarterly reporting also weighed on analysts’ earnings forecasts for AIC Mines (copper), Bellevue Gold, Nickel Industries and Pantoro Gold.
Equally, quarterly reporting propelled cancer imaging and treatment developer Telix Pharmaceuticals to the top of the earnings upgrade table.
Morgan Stanley noted quarterly revenue rose 19% to US$245m, with management tracking towards the upper end of unchanged US$950m-US$970m annual guidance.
While acknowledging the outcome was below expectations, UBS considered resulting share price weakness as excessive, retaining its Buy rating and $26 target.
Oil and gas producer Santos and toll road operator Transurban Group also feature with rises in respective average earnings forecasts of 8% and 7%.
Santos delivered September quarter free cash flow of US$957m, driven by new projects and higher commodity prices, marking a shift from investment to cash generation.
Transurban’s September traffic growth was broadly in line with August despite higher fuel prices, Citi noted.
Sydney traffic rose 2% year on year, or an estimated 1.4% excluding the benefit from the M7 opening. Melbourne improved from a weak August, while Brisbane growth eased.
North American traffic remained strong, with higher tolls helping drive double-digit revenue growth.
Overall, Citi found the update encouraging but fuel prices and cost-of-living pressures are expected to weigh on Australian traffic in the near term.
Buy ratings now represent 64.78% of all ratings in the FNArena database, up from 64.70% in the prior week.
Neutral/Hold ratings take up 28.45%, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 6.85%.
Upgrade
29METALS LIMITED ((29M)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/2/0
29Metals sustained a weak September quarter and production and revenue were well below forecasts amid a planned 11-day mill shutdown. Copper production of 4,200t was down -28% compared with forecasts from Morgans.
The broker acknowledges much of the miss was related to timing but notes this has eroded liquidity as growth expenditure peaks. Group liquidity of $142m is considered by management to be enough to fund the extension to Xantho, Gossan Valley and Oizon.
Morgans updates its modelling and upgrades to Accumulate from Hold on the back of share price weakness. Target is steady at 35c.
ARENA REIT ((ARF)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 3/0/1
UBS raises its target for Arena REIT to $2.92 from $2.60 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Progress in resolving exposure to collapsed tenant Edge Early Learning is seen as supporting a recovery in rental income.
Management has raised FY27 dividend guidance to 19.0c-20.2c from at least 18.0c, reflecting proposed operator transitions, the analysts explain. These include Goodstart Early Learning's acquisition of 20 childcare businesses at Arena-owned centres.
Assuming all transactions proceed, UBS reinstates $10m of rent, lifting FY27 and subsequent EPS and dividend forecasts by around 12%.
An attractive forecast dividend yield and -31% discount to net asset value (NAV) underpin UBS's positive view.
BHP GROUP LIMITED ((BHP)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/3/0
Keeping its target for BHP Group at $63, Ord Minnett upgrades to Accumulate from Hold as shares are trading at a wider discount to the broker's valuation.
September quarter copper production fell -19% year-on-year and missed consensus by -5%, reflecting lower grades and operational disruptions, the broker explains.
Iron ore broadly met consensus expectations. Coal performed strongly, Ord Minnett notes, particularly Energy coal production at NSWEC, which exceeded consensus by 18%.
FY27 production and cost guidance remains unchanged, with Ord Minnett seeing scope to recover some of the copper shortfall over the year.
The broker continues to prefer Buy-rated Rio Tinto ((RIO)) for its stronger forecast growth and lower earnings multiple.
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