Australian Broker Call

UBS rates A2M as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS observes a2 Milk Co has de-rated by -35% which captures a significantly greater permanent value loss compared to its forecasts at -12% and upgrades to Buy from Neutral.

The company should have completed its retrospective product testing which broadly eliminates the risk of further ARA-related recalls and the broker's analysis suggests shortages were greater than previously anticipated.

UBS now believes the likelihood of further infant formula product recalls is low with the earnings risk moderating and China's restocking underway.

Despite incorporating conservative assumptions around China-label customer losses UBS expects net profit to double by FY30 amid  infant formula share gains and new products. Target is reduced to NZ$9.20 from NZ$10.40.

Current Price is $6.11. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $8.10, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BBN as Buy (1) -

After visiting the newly opened K Home store in Melbourne's Box Hill, Citi assesses the competitive threat to several small-cap retailers and sees a medium impact for Baby Bunting. K Home is part of Wesfarmers' ((WES)) Kmart Group.

While Kmart has long sold baby products, the broker notes the category occupies a prominent position within K Home and benefits from significant customer traffic.

The analysts believe Baby Bunting faces greater competition on store space than product range. Although K Home's pricing is competitive, it's noted Baby Bunting's private-label products are often cheaper and its online marketplace offers broader choice.

Baby Bunting's exposure to leading third-party brands is also highlighted, while K Home's baby range is largely limited to Kmart's Anko label. Unchanged Buy rating and $3.30 target.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $1.67 Difference: $1.63
If BBN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 98% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.96, suggesting upside of 82.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BPT as Sell (5) -

Citi has cut its earnings forecasts for stocks under coverage across the Australian energy sector after lowering its oil and gas price assumptions.

These changes reflect expectations for a widening global oil surplus as flows through the Strait of Hormuz normalise and an Iran supply agreement progresses.

The broker now forecasts the market will shift from a surplus of around 2mbpd before the conflict to 4mbpd by 2027.

Despite the weaker commodity outlook, Citi is more constructive on growth project execution and energy security-driven developments. Risk weightings for the Browse project are raised to 25% from 10% and Papua LNG to 50% from 25%.

While target prices have been reduced, ratings are unchanged, with Santos remaining favoured to narrow its valuation discount to Woodside Energy.

The target for Beach Energy falls to 90c from $1.05. Sell rating maintained.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.99 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.05, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BPT as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie flags Beach Energy's 4Q26 earnings are expected to be affected by a weaker gas market, and highlights circa 30% spot exposure in the East Coast gas portfolio.

The analyst points out Gas Review outcomes have changed the structure of the market and underpinned a rise in uncertainty, while warmer conditions to the start of winter, full storage, lower GPG and LNG maintenance have impacted on prices.

Notably, Waitsia is also facing challenges while the sale of Artisan is viewed as a positive.

EPS forecasts are lowered by -11% for FY26 and -10% for FY27 on reduced production assumptions.

Target price slips to 85c from 88c with no change in Underperform rating.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.99 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.05, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CGF as Buy (1) -

Challenger will merge its Fidante funds management business with Channel Capital to create a $150bn funds under-management (FUM) platform. 

Under the agreement, Challenger will receive $172m in cash and retain a 45% stake in the merged entity, which Citi views as strategically sensible. It's noted Fidante's FUM has fallen by around -$14bn over the past two years.

The transaction allows Challenger to maintain exposure to future growth while directing more capital towards its higher-growth Life business, the analyst highlights.

Citi also sees scope for enhanced shareholder returns and retains its Buy rating and $10.00 target.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $9.77 Difference: $0.23
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.99, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CGF as Buy (1) -

Challenger will separate and merge its Fidante asset management platform with Channel Capital. Ord Minnett suggests this should resonate well with investors seeking a cleaner exposure to retirement income themes.

A new entity, Channel Group, will be formed that will manage around $150 bn in assets. Challenger will retain a 45% stake. The broker observes the deal should generate a pre-tax gain of roughly $100m in FY27 and provide some near-term earnings support.

The company intends to launch an annuity-backed notes program which Ord Minnett suggests could materially enhance growth in the annuity book if successfully executed.

The broker retains a Buy rating and $11 target.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $9.77 Difference: $1.23
If CGF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.99, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CGF as Buy (1) -

Challenger's Fidante, a multi-affiliate funds management business, will merge with Channel Capital to create Channel Group, which will have a combined $150bn in assets under  management. Challenger will retain a 45% stake in a more diversified group.

UBS observes this will allow the company to focus squarely on its life division which had stronger growth prospects emerging across retail, institutional and reinsurance channels.

With improving life growth prospects and reduced regulatory capital intensity, the broker continues to envisage compelling value and retains a Buy rating.

In addition to its 45% ownership of Channel Group, Challenger will also receive $172m in cash proceeds and book a $100m pre-tax gain on sale in FY27. Target is raised to $11.00 from $10.20.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $9.77 Difference: $1.23
If CGF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.99, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CMM as Buy (1) -

While it may be early to put too much emphasis on the peace deal in the Middle East, Bell Potter observes markets are beginning to price in a cessation of hostilities and flags a softening across the energy complex and a broader "risk on" rotation.

Capricorn Metals, along with Evolution Mining ((EVN)), is among the broker's key picks in the gold sector in this environment as a high-margin quality producer.

Buy rating and $16.25 target.

Target price is $16.25 Current Price is $13.70 Difference: $2.55
If CMM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.75, suggesting upside of 40.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EHL as Neutral (3) -

Emeco Holdings offered FY26 operating earnings (EBITDA) guidance off $290m-$295m, a small decline and outlook downgrade on FY25 result of $301m, Macquarie points out.

Wet weather, supply chain issues and uncertainty over fuel prices have all contributed to the slight downgrade in guidance over the 2H26 versus the analyst's prior forecast of $308m.

Mine production is highlighted as remaining "solid" including expanding gold production and slight growth in met coal output.

Management anticipates FY27 earnings to be stable as well as free cash flow of $100m-$110m in FY26.

Macquarie's EPS forecasts are raised by 3% for FY26 and lowered by -5% for FY27. Target price declines by -23% to $1.08 from $1.40 previously on lower valuation and earnings downgrades. Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $1.08 Current Price is $0.96 Difference: $0.12
If EHL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Goodman Group will acquire Brickworks' ((SOL)) 50% stake in the Industrial JV Trust for $1.89bn. Citi views this transaction as strategically important given the Trust's exposure to prime industrial land across Australia's major logistics corridors.

The broker notes the sites have above-average power infrastructure, making them well suited to data-enabled logistics, high-throughput distribution and emerging AI-related warehousing applications.

The acquisition strengthens Goodman's already substantial development pipeline, Citi comments, and expands its premium landbank at a time of growing demand for industrial and data center assets. 

Buy. Target $40.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $32.31 Difference: $7.69
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.73, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GMG as Overweight (1) -

Goodman Group/GAIP (industrial partnership) has bought the 50% of the Industrial JV trust it has with Brickworks ((SOL)) with assets purchased split $2.35bn GAIP and $0.35bn Goodman, Morgan Stanley notes.

The group is only acquiring the development parcels in Oakdale East which will be onsold to GAIP eventually, the analyst points out.

The acquisition price aligns with book values at the time of the Brickworks/Washington H Soul Pattinson merger in 2025.

The broker observes GAIP had total assets of $18bn as at March 2026 and the transaction will raise assets under management to $20.35bn, as well as producing more fee income in the future.

The target price is $36.15. Overweight rated. Industry view: In-Line. No change to earnings forecasts.

Target price is $36.15 Current Price is $32.31 Difference: $3.84
If GMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.73, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GMG as Hold (3) -

Goodman Group will take control of the Brickworks ((SOL)) Industrial joint venture, acquiring its partner stake via the Goodman Australia Industrial Partnership. The transaction will add around $2.3bn in external funds under management.

Ord Minnett observes, based on recent asset appreciation, the deal appears to be struck at around a -5% discount to fair value, presenting a modestly accretive outcome.

From an earnings perspective the impact is considered incremental while strategically it reinforces the company's conviction in the Australian industrial and logistics market.

The broker finds the elevated valuation a constraint, given the balance sheet exposure and development risks embedded within the JV model. Hold rating and $29.50 target.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $32.31 Difference: minus $2.81 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.73, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IEL as Buy (1) -

IDP Education expects FY26 earnings (EBITA) of $122m versus UBS' forecast of $120m and consensus at $123m.

Macro conditions remain difficult, the analyst remarks, but management has achieved a cost out of $30m, above the prior $25m target for FY26.

Further cost outs have been flagged by IDP for FY27 to counter higher inflation. A $50m on-market share buyback was also announced which the broker views as indicative of how robust the balance sheet is.

The stock remains Buy rated with a $5.15 target. No change to EPS forecasts.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $2.40 Difference: $2.75
If IEL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 115% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.18, suggesting upside of 59.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates KAR as Buy (1) -

Citi has cut its earnings forecasts for stocks under coverage across the Australian energy sector after lowering its oil and gas price assumptions.

These changes reflect expectations for a widening global oil surplus as flows through the Strait of Hormuz normalise and an Iran supply agreement progresses.

The broker now forecasts the market will shift from a surplus of around 2mbpd before the conflict to 4mbpd by 2027.

Despite the weaker commodity outlook, Citi is more constructive on growth project execution and energy security-driven developments. Risk weightings for the Browse project are raised to 25% from 10% and Papua LNG to 50% from 25%.

While target prices have been reduced, ratings are unchanged, with Santos remaining favoured to narrow its valuation discount to Woodside Energy.

The target for Karoon Energy falls to $1.75 from $2.50 after the broker also defers Who Dat production following delays in getting the E manifold online. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0.305
If KAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.83, suggesting upside of 26.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LIC as Neutral (3) -

Management at Lifestyle Communities reports improving sales momentum, with 56 land lease sales recorded so far in the June quarter, up 12% year-on-year and 30% above the March quarter.

On the flipside, Citi notes weaker market conditions have prompted price reductions, with FY26 development margins expected to fall to 8.5%-9.5% from 11% in the first half. This loss of momentum implies to the broker a more than -30% decline in second-half margins.

The broker expects further earnings downgrades across FY27-FY28 but highlights reduced balance sheet risk as net debt declines.

Citi retains a Neutral rating and raises its target by 40c to $5.80.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.51 Difference: $0.29
If LIC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.54, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LIC as Neutral (3) -

Lifestyle Communities delivered a trading update that implies a turnaround in momentum in the fourth quarter as sales improved to 56 homes.

UBS finds "the details" less encouraging, assessing FY26 home settlement margins are expected to fall to between 8.5%-9.5%, which implies a deterioration from 11% in the first half. This is a consequence of discounting on recent sales.

Unsold inventory is now at more manageable levels, i.e. 126 homes, yet the broker questions whether the company can sustain sales volumes if discounts are unwound.

UBS suspects the trade off between margins and volumes is likely to impact near-term earnings. Neutral retained. Target is reduced to $5.70 from $5.80.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.51 Difference: $0.19
If LIC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.54, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCK as Neutral (3) -

After visiting the newly opened K Home store in Melbourne's Box Hill, Citi assesses the competitive threat to several small-cap retailers and sees a medium-to-low impact for Nick Scali. K Home is part of Wesfarmers' ((WES)) Kmart Group.

The key risk for Nick Scali is competition for new store sites rather than market share erosion, the analysts explain. K Home felt more like a Kmart store without apparel to the broker, than a dedicated furniture retailer.

Commentary notes K Home's limited furniture range, particularly sofas, and believes its merchandising lacks the room-style displays that underpin Nick Scali's customer experience.

While K Home offers significantly lower prices and immediate product availability, the broker sees limited customer overlap and believes lower-end furniture retailers are more exposed.

The Neutral rating and $14.15 target are maintained.

Target price is $14.15 Current Price is $15.97 Difference: minus $1.82 (current price is over target).
If NCK meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.46, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QAN as Buy (1) -

The analyst at Citi remains positive on Qantas Airways after attending a Project Sunrise showcase, highlighting a compelling business case for non-stop ultra-long-haul flights.

Management continues to target a $400m uplift in international earnings (EBIT), supported by premium pricing, strong load factors and redeployment of existing aircraft to other routes, the broker explains.

The Sydney-London service is expected to generate a 30% revenue per available seat kilometre (RASK) premium versus current one-stop flights, aided by a higher mix of premium seating.

Buy rating. Target $10.40.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $9.99 Difference: $0.41
If QAN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.73, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates REA as Sell (5) -

REA Group has outlined expectations for property prices to be flat in 2026 across combined capital cities before rebounding to 5.5% growth in 2027.

The report also suggests that home prices over the long run will be "a few percent" lower than otherwise because of the recent federal budget changes.

The report signals elevated listings activity in Melbourne and Sydney, up between 6-7% in the second half to May, and appears to suggest a buyers' market, Bell Potter noting the two markets combined are 46% of national volumes.

The broker makes no changes to estimates or target multiples in regard to valuation but reduces its terminal growth rate to 4%. Sell rating retained. Target is reduced to $133 from $137.

Target price is $133.00 Current Price is $144.60 Difference: minus $11.6 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $191.88, suggesting upside of 36.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SDF as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie downgrades Steadfast Group to Neutral from Outperform with a lower target of $4.50 from $4.80 with a change in the valuation ascribed to the stock. The current share price reflects a more balanced probability of a takeover risk.

The analyst emphasises the insurance broker's partial ownership structure is an important part of due diligence, noting bidder Dragoneer will be considering the differences between its own investment approach and that of Steadfast.

After mark-to-market and removing the buy-back of small shareholders parcels as well as a special dividend of 30c per share, EPS forecasts are tweaked slightly lower.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $5.16 Difference: minus $0.66 (current price is over target).
If SDF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.62, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SEK as Buy (1) -

Seek has revealed an acceleration in the decline in job advertisements in May on its Australian platform, down -5.8% seasonally adjusted.

Bell Potter observes this appears to be tracking at around -2.8% in FY26 to date, trailing the ABS Internet job ads measure, which was up 0.6% in April.

Seek is expected to outperform in a declining interest rate environment/dovish outlook as witnessed during the 2020 and 2014 job growth recoveries.

The broker points out the company is also approaching an optional liquidity window for its growth fund which would allow it to redeem cash for up to 25% of units issued in relation to seeded assets.

Any cash redemption is likely to go towards paying down debt and invest in new products or a strategic acquisition, Bell Potter adds. Buy rating and $18.60 target maintained.

Target price is $18.60 Current Price is $13.34 Difference: $5.26
If SEK meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.93, suggesting upside of 53.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SEK as Neutral (3) -

Australian job ad volumes fell -4% y/y in May and -1% m/m with the falls accelerating through FY26, Macquarie points out,

Year-to-date in FY26, job ads are down -3% y/y with the outlook continuing to look "challenging" the analyst states, noting AI-related risk to workforce automation and the unemployment rate.

Applications per ad reached a record of 230 in April, up 5% y/y, 4% m/m and above the 10-year average of 130, Macquarie highlights.

The jobs reports usually aligns with Seek's paid ad volumes but with some tweaks, the broker states.

The stock remains Neutral rated with an $18.50 target.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $13.34 Difference: $5.16
If SEK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.93, suggesting upside of 53.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGM as Lighten (4) -

Sims has upgraded guidance with Ord Minnett noting second half earnings from the metals business, that excludes Sims Lifecycle Services (SLS), is now around 40-45% above expectations flagged in March.

It points to stronger-than-expected volumes and/or trading margins throughout the June quarter. SLS remains a key earnings driver, the broker adds, with memory chip resale contributing around 80% of gross profit.

Going forward, the balance sheet provides flexibility, with the company expected to approach a net cash position by FY27, underpinned by land sales.

Valuation remains stretched, the broker adds. Lighten rating and $24 target.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $29.99 Difference: minus $5.99 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.16, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SPK as Buy (1) -

Spark New Zealand has underperformed the NZX50 by -15% in the year to date, UBS observes, which could be a combination of a weak economy, continued market share loss and a possible cut to the dividend.

The broker considers the sell-off overdone, as FY26 guidance and FY27 consensus expectations assume minimal growth while the current share price implies no growth.

UBS points out telcos are relatively defensive in weaker economies albeit not immune, and lowers FY26 and FY27 EBITDA forecasts by -1% and -4%, respectively.

While previously forecasting an economic recovery in 2027 the broker now delays this until later in the year or 2028. Buy rating. Target is reduced to NZ$3.00 from NZ$3.50.

Current Price is $1.55. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Buy (1) -

Citi has cut its earnings forecasts for stocks under coverage across the Australian energy sector after lowering its oil and gas price assumptions.

These changes reflect expectations for a widening global oil surplus as flows through the Strait of Hormuz normalise and an Iran supply agreement progresses.

The broker now forecasts the market will shift from a surplus of around 2mbpd before the conflict to 4mbpd by 2027.

Despite the weaker commodity outlook, Citi is more constructive on growth project execution and energy security-driven developments. Risk weightings for the Browse project are raised to 25% from 10% and Papua LNG to 50% from 25%.

While target prices have been reduced, ratings are unchanged, with Santos remaining favoured to narrow its valuation discount to Woodside Energy.

The target for Santos falls by -50c to $8.50. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.33 Difference: $1.17
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.33, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TCG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes Turaco Gold has achieved a positive preliminary feasibility study for Afema which has a higher throughput rate than the analyst had forecast.

Throughput of 6.3mtpa and AISC of US$1508/oz, which is lower than expected, was announced with a shorter mine life of 10.3 years. The updates equates to higher capital intensity of US$65/t, higher than the analyst's expectations of US$59/t.

The broker increases milled throughput forecasts to 6.3Mtpa from 5.75Mtpa and assumes a lower operating cost, as well as updated capex and recovery estimates.

An Outperform rating is retained with a target of $1.00, unchanged.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.455
If TCG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TPW as Neutral (3) -

After visiting the newly opened K Home store in Melbourne's Box Hill, Citi assesses the competitive threat to several small-cap retailers and sees a high impact for Temple & Webster. K Home is part of Wesfarmers' ((WES)) Kmart Group.

The broker notes a significant overlap in product categories. Furniture is K Home's largest category by floor space, followed by dining, kitchenware, decor and technology products.

These are all areas where Temple & Webster has meaningful exposure, the analysts explain. Indeed, SimilarWeb data suggests considerable customer overlap, with 13% of Kmart website visitors also visiting Temple & Webster, highlights Citi.

The broker argues the online retailer should continue emphasising its exclusive product strategy, which accounted for 49% of first-half revenue, to help differentiate its offering from K Home.

The $5.60 target and Neutral rating are maintained.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.70 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If TPW meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.84, suggesting upside of 19.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Citi has cut its earnings forecasts for stocks under coverage across the Australian energy sector after lowering its oil and gas price assumptions.

These changes reflect expectations for a widening global oil surplus as flows through the Strait of Hormuz normalise and an Iran supply agreement progresses.

The broker now forecasts the market will shift from a surplus of around 2mbpd before the conflict to 4mbpd by 2027.

Despite the weaker commodity outlook, Citi is more constructive on growth project execution and energy security-driven developments. Risk weightings for the Browse project are raised to 25% from 10% and Papua LNG to 50% from 25%.

While target prices have been reduced, ratings are unchanged, with Santos remaining favoured to narrow its valuation discount to Woodside Energy.

Price target drops to $29.50 from $34. Neutral.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $28.62 Difference: $0.88
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.94, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources