Australian Broker Call

UBS rates ALD as Neutral (3) -

Ampol announced a very robust 2Q trading update, UBS stresses with unaudited 1H2026 earnings (EBITDA) around 18% above consensus and unaudited earnings (EBIT) 22% above consensus expectations.

The refiner benefitted from a "long jet fuel" position ahead of the Middle East war, boosted by in-the-money hedges and earnings (EBITDA) from international trading estimated at $259m, versus the historical average $37m per half over the prior eight halves, the analyst highlights.

More robust cash flows and higher trading results are expected by the broker to be used to increase debt reduction.

Target price is raised to $39 from $36.65 with a Neutral rating retained. EPS forecasts are upgraded by 28% for FY2026 and 10% for FY2027. UBS acknowledges Ampol offers exposure to upside risks in the energy sector.

This report was published on July 31, 2026.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $39.90 Difference: minus $0.9 (current price is over target).
If ALD meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $42.75, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AV1 as Buy (1) -

Adveritas delivered recurring revenue in the June quarter that was up 11% quarter on quarter and 60% year-on-year, at $16.8m.

Cash receipts were notably below Bell Potter's forecast but this reflected the continued shift by customers to half-yearly or quarterly payments from annual. Revenue forecasts are eased by -2% for FY26-FY28.

Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $0.16 from $0.18.

Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.09
If AV1 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 129% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BOE as Neutral (3) -

On further review from the initial update on Boss Energy's quarterly update, Citi lowers the target price to $1.35 from $1.60. Neutral rating retained.

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Citi likes the appointment of the former Oil Search CEO to Boss Energy as a positive for the U308 producer against short-term pressures from lower realised prices relating to the timing on fixed-price contracts in the Sept quarter.

Management has expressed higher confidence in the proposed wide-spaced wellfield design for Honeymoon. The analyst notes the first trial is expected to be finished in the current quarter.

Successful results would assist the upcoming new feasibility study, which makes 1Q27 an important period for Boss in terms of de-risking the stock.

Neutral rating remains. Target $1.60.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: $0.13
If BOE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.56, suggesting upside of 27.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BRG as Buy (1) -

Citi sees positive takeaways from De'Longhi's 2Q2026 result for Breville Group, which remains Buy rated.

The peer's result showed ongoing strength in coffee, particularly for revenue growth in the Americas, which is one of Breville's major markers.

The coffee segment across the De'Longhi group advanced at mid-single digits, which is higher than the 1Q low-single digit growth at constant FX, the analyst points out.

Target $39.85.

Target price is $39.85 Current Price is $32.86 Difference: $6.99
If BRG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.52, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BTL as Buy (1) -

Beetaloo Energy Australia's June Q outlined progress across multiple important fronts. Delivering the plant and pilot gas sales is the most immediate hurdle and is right on the doorstep, Morgans notes, while unlocking larger-scale development of its broader Beetaloo acreage remains the ultimate prize.

Morgans views the capital raising as a smart move supporting the business through late development, although Federal government intervention in the gas industry has pushed a larger discount on Beetaloo than the broker would have expected.

Target falls to 77c from 90c, Speculative Buy retained.

Target price is $0.77 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.55
If BTL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 250% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BUB as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bubs Australia reported net sales revenue in the June quarter of $30.9m, at the upper end of implied guidance. There was no detail on the geographic breakdown, yet Bell Potter assumes, given a material uplift in Australia/US trade activity, the US was a major contributor.

There was an operating cash outflow of -$2.5m, which reflected inventory accumulation. The target price is unchanged at 13.5c. Speculative Buy rating.

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.05
If BUB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BUB as Accumulate (2) -

Bubs Australia delivered revenue of $111.9m for FY26, up 9% and ahead of Ord Minnett's forecasts. The broker was disappointed there was no geographical breakdown, this having been deferred to the full year result scheduled for August 27.

The broker continues to take the view that the strong performance in the US is offsetting weakness in other markets.

Operating cash outflow continues to narrow, as expected, reflecting the build-up of inventory and increased costs associated with changes in regulatory conditions. Accumulate rating and $0.12 target unchanged.

Target price is $0.12 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.035
If BUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CIA as Hold (3) -

Champion Iron reported the first quarter iron concentrate production from Bloom Lake was 3.5mt with sales of 3.1mt. Concentrate sales were at the lowest level since the March 2024 quarter, affected by the DRPF ramp up where high-grade product sales were deferred.

While Bell Potter expects iron content price premiums for the DRPF, full "value-in-use" premiums are unlikely to be realised until longer-term offtake is secured. The project is now largely complete and within budget and minor issues are being resolved.

Hold rating and the target is reduced to $3.40 from $4.40.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.41 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If CIA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CMM as Buy (1) -

Capricorn Metals delivered an updated prefeasibility study for Mount Gibson, incorporating maiden underground production in addition to the existing open pit. Bell Potter notes this lifts steady-state production to up to 260,000 ounces per annum at AISC of $1870/oz.

The update is underpinned by a 34% increase in ore reserves. The broker highlights further growth potential, given the early-stage nature of the underground exploration at MGGP and the large-scale tenement package.

Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $17.80 from $16.70.

Target price is $17.80 Current Price is $12.75 Difference: $5.05
If CMM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.04, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CMM as Outperform (1) -

Capricorn Metals' June Q production metrics were largely pre-reported earlier this month, Macquarie notes. Sales were a 6% beat versus consensus, which was a key positive, supporting a stronger closing cash balance 9% above consensus.

FY27 cost guidance of $2,000/oz was 9% above expectations, driven by partly by reserve optimisation at a higher gold price assumption. Karlawinda Gold Project capex of $70m-$85m was also 39% above consensus, reflecting accelerated pre-stripping of the expanded reserve.

Macquarie notes Capricorn has ample liquidity to deliver on growth, with Mt Gibson final state approvals close. Target falls to $15.90 from $16.30 on higher costs, Outperform retained.

Target price is $15.90 Current Price is $12.75 Difference: $3.15
If CMM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.04, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSC as Buy (1) -

Capstone Copper's 2Q2026 results were largely as expected. Copper production came in 1% above consensus at 51.8kt, Citi points out with sales of 50.7kt meeting forecasts. Consolidated cash costs of US$2.82/lb were also as expected.

Revenue and adj earnings (EBITDA) were slight beats on consensus by 2%, underpinned by realised copper price of US$6.22/lb. Net attributable income, as highlighted by the analyst, missed by -14%.

Record sulphide production and lower than anticipated costs at Monteverde offset slightly weaker performance and higher costs at Pinto Valley and Mantos Blancos, the broker explains.

Guidance for FY2026 for production, cost and capex were unchanged. Citi views the results as basically in-line. Target $16.60. Buy.

Target price is $16.60 Current Price is $13.69 Difference: $2.91
If CSC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.18, suggesting upside of 26.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSC as Outperform (1) -

Capstone Copper's production of 51.8kt of copper and C1 cash costs of US$2.82/lb were probably in line with consensus, albeit production was a 1% beat.

Mantoverde was a beat with sulphide throughput averaging a record 36.3ktpd, which stands 13% above design the broker states. The processing plant is achieving 90.2% recoveries and running "seamlessly".

Pinto Valley missed consensus and Macquarie's forecasts by -5% and -11%, respectively, with C1 costs well above the analyst's forecasts by 30% and consensus by 13%. There are ongoing filter-plant issues as well as unplanned maintenance impacting the recovery.

Macquarie notes better than expected realised prices boosted revenue and adjusted earnings (EBITDA) to come in 3% higher than consensus.

Other expenses impacted on net profit after tax with 2026 EPS forecasts lowered by -8%.

No change to target price $17.80 and Outperform rating.

Target price is $17.80 Current Price is $13.69 Difference: $4.11
If CSC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.18, suggesting upside of 26.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CSC as Buy (1) -

Morgans exclaims Capstone Copper had an "outstanding" result and performance from Mantoverde over the June quarter, with the operations running above nameplate capacity, beating on volumes and costs.

The latest quarterly result for Capstone represented the seventh consecutive quarter of record adj earnings (EBITDA). The analyst affirms the consistency of earnings growth and leverage to the copper price.

Production was in line with the broker's forecast and consensus, while adj earnings (EBITDA) was a slight beat. Net debt declined by -8.6% q/q to US$674.9m.

Management reiterated 2026 guidance. Buy rating and $18 target retained.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $13.69 Difference: $4.31
If CSC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.18, suggesting upside of 26.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

UBS' key observations from CSL's competitors results is the underlying immunoglobulin market remains supported.

Takeda has guided to mid-single digit growth in FY26 and Grifols to mid-to-high-single digit growth in core Ig markets.

The analyst anticipates CSL will be able to recapture some market share in FY27. Re albumin, the market looks to be improving yet remains challenging, the analyst states, but commentary broadly aligns with CSL's forecasts.

The broker retains a Buy rating with an unchanged $158 target.

Target price is $158.00 Current Price is $123.06 Difference: $34.94
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $132.84, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CYL as Buy (1) -

Catalyst Metals delivered a record 31,886 ounces of gold with sales of 29,870 ounces at an average realised price of $6,492/oz. Ore was sourced from four mines including Plutonic Main, Plutonic East, Trident OP and K2 underground. Head grade lifted 26% quarter on quarter.

Bell Potter points out that, with record production, costs below guidance and $54m in cash, a significant near-term catalyst is likely to be FY27 cost guidance and strategy. Targets reduced to $13.25 from $14.60 and a Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $13.25 Current Price is $5.40 Difference: $7.85
If CYL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 145% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.94, suggesting upside of 107.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DYL as Buy (1) -

Deep Yellow's decision to defer Tumas in 2025 is increasingly being validated, Morgans suggests, with uranium contract prices materially stronger than when the project was postponed, supporting improved project economics and potential value at final investment decision (FID).

Completion of the Independent Technical Expert review has satisfied lenders' initial due diligence requirements, with the final debt facility size expected to be determined closer to FID as Deep Yellow optimises the capital structure.

While financing, execution and uranium market risks remain, Morgans believes the market is underappreciating the value of a development-ready uranium asset with significant leverage to improving industry fundamentals.

Target falls to $2.00 from $2.56, Speculative Buy retained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: $0.68
If DYL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.04, suggesting upside of 53.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EBR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Having pre-released its second quarter data, EBR Systems has now advised there were eight activated hospitals in the period, down from 11 in the first quarter and 30 in total, against 52 signed hospital contracts.

The slowdown is attributed to over-indexing on signing contracts and training physicians not placing sufficient emphasis on embedding utilisation by a trained electrophysiologist.

There was also more detail on the recent fatality and incident. The risk is seen as mitigated through following recommended procedures and, while the FDA review of the site does not have a specific end date, Bell Potter notes it will typically cease when questioning also ceases.

The broker retains a $0.90 target and Speculative Buy rating, pending greater comfort on adoption levels.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.61
If EBR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 210% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FHE as Speculative Buy (1) -

Frontier Energy has updated on its progress on Waroona Stage 1 with early development works beginning soon and Montford's site mobilisation scheduled for September.

The latter's appointment as EPC contractor gives Ord Minnett confidence, given its experience and the fixed-price contract structure along with the shareholding in Frontier. The company has also confirmed key equipment suppliers and progress on the grid connection.

While there are still risks in developing the large 300ha site, early indications are that management is taking appropriate steps to ensure delivery occurs on time and on budget, the broker adds. Speculative Buy rating and $0.35 target, raised from $0.34.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.15
If FHE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates FLC as Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Speculative Hold (1) -

Bell Potter notes the strong June quarter result from Fluence, with revenue up 24% to US$20.4m. Operating cash flow of US$1.8m is highlighted as a positive turnaround, given the outflow of -US$8.2m in the prior quarter.

The broker finds upside risk to valuation from the potential award of the O&M contract in Côte d'Ivoire. The broker believes the scope of this contract could be as large as EUR8m annually within three years, although chooses to leave it out of current calculations.

Typically the company has a soft first half because of slower starts to the year by customers. The business has demonstrated an ability to sustainably grow higher-margin divisions and the broker upgrades to Speculative Buy from Speculative Hold. Target is unchanged at $0.11.

Target price is $0.11 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.032
If FLC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates FMG as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

Fortescue reported total iron ore shipments of 52.7mt for the June quarter at C1 cash costs of US$19.37/wmt. Costs rose 6%, largely reflecting higher diesel prices and a higher AUD:USD exchange rate. FY27 guidance is for shipments of 197-207mt.

Bell Potter observes the core operations continue to perform well and are benefiting from an elevated iron ore price. The pressure is coming from higher costs as well as a subdued price outlook for iron ore and the potential impact on price realisation.

Rating is raised to Hold from Sell amid recent share price depreciation but the broker does not find enough positive catalysts yet to re-enter the stock. Target is reduced to $17.40 from $18.15.

Target price is $17.40 Current Price is $18.51 Difference: minus $1.11 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.25, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

Fortescue once again delivered an annual record in shipments at costs that had performed well in spite of inflationary pressures. Macquarie notes.

If Fortescue delivers to the upside of its guidance range next year (and to its 205mtpa capacity constraint) it will again deliver another record for a supply chain that was originally rated at 155mtpa.

The impacts of the diesel fuel increase have bitten hard, with decarbonisation benefits not materially lowering diesel consumption until FY28. While Macquarie has deferred the ramp-up profile, it still remains confident Fortescue could be a cost leader now and in the future.

Target falls to $20 from $21, Outperform retained.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $18.51 Difference: $1.49
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.25, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley highlights Iron Bridge's shipments came in at 2.7Mt and missed consensus expectations by -10% and  the broker's forecast by -15.6%. Management's FY28 annualised output target is over 16mtm compared to 2H27 previous outlook of 16Mtpa-20Mtpa.

Share shipments were a slight miss at 51.8Mt with hematite shipments of 50Mt, and production a slight beat on the analyst's forecast by 1.4%.

FY27 guidance is viewed as mixed with shipments guidance of 19Mt-207Mt were slightly below forecasts, with Iron Bridge guidance also disappointing.

Medium-term Iron Bridge and hematite C1 cost guidance came in above expectations, reflecting higher diesel costs and inflation.

Metals capex was modestly higher than forecast, although Energy operating costs were lower than expected. Port capacity remains a near-term constraint as Iron Bridge ramps up.

Underweight rating. Target is $17.25. Industry View In-Line.

Target price is $17.25 Current Price is $18.51 Difference: minus $1.26 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.25, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Accumulate (2) -

Fortescue provided June quarter production numbers that were largely in line with Ord Minnett's expectations and within FY26 guidance. FY27 guidance, and the -US$525m after-tax impairment of the Iron Bridge asset, disappointed the broker.

Cost pressures are seen building, with the haematite C1 unit cost rising 6% in the June quarter, largely because of higher diesel prices.

Updating for the results and guidance, Ord Minnett lowers estimates for EPS in FY26 by -3.3% and -4.1% for FY27. Target edges down to $20.00 from $20.50. Accumulate rating retained.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $18.51 Difference: $1.49
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.25, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

Fortescue achieved record shipments in the June quarter with the result meeting expectations, according to UBS.

Better supply chain performance assisted with robust volumes as well as a recovery from weather-related issues in the prior quarter.

Haematite shipments at around 50mt were also in line with C1 costs of US$19.4/wmt in the quarter, below consensus. Realised pricing fell around -500bps at US$88.8/dmt. The analyst has lowered realised price forecasts for the next 12-months due to expected weaker pricing terms.

Iron Bridge at 2.7Mt, was below consensus with management now pointing to expected annualised production over 16Mtpa during FY28.

Capex came in at the lower end of guidance at US$3.6bn with net debt better than expected at US$0.8bn.

Neutral rating retained. Target price slips to $19.05 from $19.70. EPS forecasts are trimmed by -6% for FY26 and -19% for FY27.

Target price is $19.05 Current Price is $18.51 Difference: $0.54
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.25, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HRN as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett observes the environment for gold developers has improved after a rally in the price over the past two years. Margins and payback periods have improved significantly while funding risk has abated.

Equity participants are seen more willing to fund projects as they seek leverage gold exposure.

The broker considers Horizon Gold underappreciated and initiates coverage with a Speculative Buy rating and $1.70 target. The business is trading at a relative discount to peers on a grade/time-to-first production basis.

Ord Minnett believes the risks are overplayed and there is significant upside on a stand-alone basis.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0.75
If HRN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates KGL as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage of Queensland operation KGL Resources with a Speculative Buy rating and 50c target. The flagship asset is the Jervois copper project, 275km north-east of Alice Springs, scheduled to enter production in early 2028.

The deposits will be initially mined as open pit in years 1-4. The business is fully funded to first production with around $686m in funds against a $439m construction capital budget and a $584m peak funding requirement.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.325
If KGL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 186% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MEI as Outperform (1) -

Meteoric Resources released the definitive feasibility study (DFS) for its Caldeira Project, confirming a 6mtpa operation producing mixed rare earth carbonate over a 20-plus year mine life.

Macquarie expects momentum in offtake and strategic partnerships to accelerate as the DFS and pilot plant results further de-risk project execution.

Macquarie expects market focus to move toward securing financing, finalising offtake agreements, and obtaining the Installation Licence. In the broker's view, successful delivery of these milestones would continue to de-risk the project.

Target falls to 43c from 45c, Outperform retained.

Target price is $0.43 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.245
If MEI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 132% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NAB as Buy (1) -

National Australia Bank's Business & Private Banking (B&PB) market update has left UBS slightly more positive on the investment case, highlighting continued growth in the bank's core franchise despite higher interest rates and energy costs.

Business lending increased 4% over the June quarter and 10% y/y to $180bn, outperforming SME system growth, while the division's net interest margin remained broadly stable at 3.02%.

The NPL ratio declined to 2.91% from 3.00%, although watch loans rose 8% over the quarter, primarily in the construction and transport sectors.

The broker believes NAB's leading position in agricultural lending remains a key competitive advantage, supported by its one-third market share, extensive regional footprint and specialist banking network. Long-term structural growth drivers are expected to underpin the segment.

UBS retains its Buy rating on National Australia Bank.

This report was published on 31 July 2026.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $41.33 Difference: $8.67
If NAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.02, suggesting downside of -6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHF as Underperform (5) -

Visa statistics are strong lead indicators for nib Holdings' International Students and Workers business (IIHI), Macquarie notes. Nib’s market weighted portfolio implies Student visas granted declined -3% year on year in the June Q but rose 17% for Workers.

Nib's Workers health insurance product remains the cheapest among major peers, Macquarie notes, while the Students product is towards the top end of the market.

With multiple divisions experiencing operational and environmental headwinds, Macquarie retains a cautious outlook. Underperform and $6.05 target retained.

Target price is $6.05 Current Price is $7.50 Difference: minus $1.45 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.46, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Citi notes Origin Energy announced a slightly positive June quarter update.

APLNG production was a slight beat and marginally above FY27 guidance. Cost guidance came in lower than both the analyst's expectations and consensus by -6% and -2%, respectively.

Production guidance was largely in line and mirrored the anticipated natural declines in production.

Citi continues to believe there are downside risks to consensus energy market forecasts. Separate accounts for Octopus and Kraken, which have now been separated, are not due until the August result, as expected.

Target price slips to $12.10 from $12.25. No change in Buy rating.

Target price is $12.10 Current Price is $10.76 Difference: $1.34
If ORG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.32, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Neutral (3) -

Origin Energy's Electricity Markets (EM) guidance is positive, but does not shift Macquarie's fundamental concern that government intervention has pushed the power market into over-supply, and it looks likely something similar will occur in gas.

APLNG results were marginally softer than expectation, but were more than offset by a better dividend, Macquarie suggests. The outlook for lower production and higher costs in FY27 is mitigated by the Iran conflict.

Uncertainty around gas reservation is deferring decisions on additional gas plant capacity if it is restricted to just the domestic market. The EM price weakness in both power and gas is a major headwind which will constrain the balance sheet in coming years, Macquarie warns.

Target falls to $10.00 from $10.16, Neutral retained.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $10.76 Difference: minus $0.76 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.32, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley expects a muted market reaction to Origin Energy's June quarter update, with supportive LNG prices offset by weaker electricity forward prices.

FY27 APLNG production guidance of 625PJ-670PJ was broadly in line with expectations, while total expenditure guidance of $3.0bn-$3.3bn was below forecasts.

FY26 energy markets EBITDA guidance of $1.6bn-$1.75bn met expectations, although Octopus Energy EBITDA guidance of around $20m was weaker than forecast despite Kraken growing contracted accounts by 28% year-on-year to 95 million.

The broker notes Australia Pacific LNG distributions of $911m exceeded its forecast, while adjusted net debt of $4.6bn came in below expectations.

Morgan Stanley retains an Underweight rating and $10.35 target price. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $10.35 Current Price is $10.76 Difference: minus $0.41 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.32, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORG as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett highlights APLNG operations, noting distributions from the asset topped estimates for Origin Energy's June quarter. The company has also tightened FY26 earnings guidance for the energy markets division and Octopus Energy.

APLNG revenues rose 6% in the quarter with cash distributions almost 15% above consensus estimates. Elevated oil prices from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East are yet to be reflected in the company's numbers, given the delay created by long-term contracts. The broker points out high prices should become more evident in FY27.

The separation of Kraken has been completed and the company will retain a 22.7% interest, which paves the way for a potential IPO that could mean Origin crystallises value from the investment. Target rises to $10.70 from $10.40 and a Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $10.70 Current Price is $10.76 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.32, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -

UBS points out Origin Energy announced an inline 4Q26 trading update. APLNG production was 2% above consensus and sales revenue met expectations. FY27 production guidance was also in line with consensus forecasts.

Management confirmed the receipt of $911m of fully franked dividends around $110m above consensus as robust oil prices over the June quarter, expected to continue into 1H27.

Energy market's earnings (EBITDA) were indicated at above the mid-point of guidance which is believed to de-risk the August results.

New battery earnings are anticipated to offset the year-on-year fall in electricity prices which was observed in the June quarter NEM prices halving due to mild weather, excess capacity and increased renewables and storage, the broker explains.

Target lifts to $13.45 from $13.40. Buy rating retained with upside risks to the consensus final dividend expectations.

Target price is $13.45 Current Price is $10.76 Difference: $2.69
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.32, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PAR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals closed the June quarter with $15.4m in cash which included $20.5m in net proceeds from the recent capital raising.

Bell Potter assesses the business has sufficient funds leading up to the interim data read for the Phase 3 PARA_OA_012 trial. Interim analysis, with a report due in September, will be based on the first 50% of patients reaching the "day 112" primary end point.

The broker reduces the valuation to 42c from 45c, noting this is implying just a small fraction of the potential underlying value that development partners may attribute to the drug. Speculative Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.255
If PAR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 155% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PLS as Buy (1) -

PLS Group anticipates production reaching 1.0mt-1.1mt in FY27 as the Ngungaju plant ramps up. Unit operating costs are expected to rise modestly, to between $575-$625/t. Capital expenditure will step up to $620m-$685m in FY27.

Ord Minnett reiterates a Buy rating, noting that apart from resumption of dividends and the restart of Ngungaju, other positive catalysts include a final investment decision on P2000. Target is lowered to $6.00 from $6.20.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.15 Difference: $1.85
If PLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.33, suggesting upside of 30.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RSG as Outperform (1) -

Resolute Mining's June Q production of 45koz was in line with consensus, as were costs, Macquarie reports. 

Management reaffirmed that 2026 production is likely to be at the low end of the guidance range provided that the security situation stabilises in Mali and supply chains are unhindered, and the ramp-up of the Syama Sulphide Conversion Project performs strongly over the Dec Q.

Doropo progressed with key long-lead items ordered over the quarter. Macquarie sees Doropo as a solution to production concentration risk in Mali, leading to reduced earnings volatility and negative sentiment outside of management's control.

Target falls to $1.45 from $1.55, Outperform retained.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.52
If RSG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RXL as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett observes the environment for gold developers has improved after a rally in the price over the past two years. Margins and payback periods have improved significantly while funding risk has abated.

Equity participants are seen as more willing to fund projects as they seek leveraged gold exposure.

The broker considers Rox Resources underappreciated and initiates coverage with a Speculative Buy rating and $0.70 target. The business is trading at a relative discount to peers on a grade/time-to-first production basis.

Ord Minnett believes the risks are overplayed and there is significant upside on a standalone basis.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.315
If RXL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates STX as Speculative Buy (1) -

Strike Energy delivered June quarter production of 1.0PJ gas and 5,500bbl condensate. Quarterly revenue was $13.1m. Bell Potter notes data from the Walyering West-1 flow test is now being interpreted to determine its commercial value through a tie-in to the existing plant.

Development of West Erregulla is in commercial negotiation and the broker considers this is the company's largest value opportunity on an unrisked basis.

Speculative Buy rating. Target is steady at 16c.

Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.061
If STX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.15, suggesting upside of 46.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TTT as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter considers the work by Titomic on its "next generation" defence systems as potentially extremely high value as it accelerates engagement with the US defence and industrial sector.

The company anticipates growth in orders and receipts in the second half of 2026 and EBITDA break-even in 2027. The broker points out US defence expenditure as a percentage of GDP is growing off a cyclical low, largely driven by modernisation of the industrial base.

Titomic's technology has several advantages over traditional casting and forging manufacturing processes, including improved production cycles and material properties. Speculative Buy rating. Target is reduced to 46c from 50c.

Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.295
If TTT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 179% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TTT as Speculative Buy (1) -

Titomic delivered a second quarter result that was largely in line with Ord Minnett's expectations. The quarter was "very active" and included expanding manufacturing capacity.

Cash receipts were flat amid a delay in anticipated customer payments that will now fall into the third quarter. The broker's investment view and earnings forecasts are unchanged along with the Speculative Buy rating and $0.38 target.

Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.215
If TTT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 130% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources