Australian Broker Call

Citi rates 360 as Buy (1) -

In a further wrap up of Life360's 2Q results, Citi lowers the target by -10% to $28.80 and US$60.10 while retaining a Buy rating on the stock.

Earnings forecasts are trimmed slightly, by -2% for FY26-FY28, with the company on track and expected to generate 18% MAU annual user growth.

The analyst acknowledges the MAUs were not as robust as inferred by recent app data, but 2Q results beat expectations with international ahead.

The use of AI is flagged to boost paying circle growth and forecasts 27% growth in FY26, with around 190k net adds in both 3Q and 4Q.

FY26 margin guidance is expected to be achieved, assisted by seasonal cost trends, notably marketing and the 4Q revenue skew. The pet opportunity is viewed as being "intact" and the new service offering is expected to lift Life360's member base.

Target price is $28.80 Current Price is $23.50 Difference: $5.3
If 360 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.28, suggesting upside of 29.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AGL as Buy (1) -

On further inspection post the first look below, Citi lowers the target to $10.90 from $11 and retains a Buy rating.

The move up in share price post result is considered more of a relief rally against a backdrop of market caution and weaker power prices.

As the energy sector transitions, the journey is expected to be bumpy and as such AGL's portfolio is viewed as "well positioned" to benefit.

FY27 EBITDA forecasts are trimmed by -5% due to more moderate BESS (batteries) earnings estimates.

***

At first glance, AGL Energy achieved strong generation reliability and retail execution, which helped deliver FY26 underlying NPAT of $631m and EBITDA of $2.1bn, broadly matching expectations despite softer energy markets.

Citi views FY27 guidance as solid, with underlying EBITDA of $1.9bn-$2.2bn and NPAT of $470m-$670m, supported by a full-year contribution from the Liddell battery.

The main disappointment for the analyst is the Retail Transformation Program, which requires an additional -$100m-$150m of investment while expected annual benefits of $70m-$90m have been pushed out to FY30.

Citi also flags a weaker medium-term outlook for battery earnings, forecasting FY28 EBITDA around -32% below its previous assumption.

Buy. Target $11.

Target price is $10.90 Current Price is $8.72 Difference: $2.18
If AGL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.87, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AGL as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie, on further analysis, notes FY27 guidance at the mid point is down -10%, despite $1bn in battery assets in service. The weight of lower power and gas prices absorbs EBITDA growth.

The broker assesses both batteries entering the National Electricity Market at this scale and the eventual exit of coal are structural challenges for FY28-FY30.

The risk remains to the downside, as power markets will weigh on earnings at the same time favourable legacy contracts expire.

Target rises to $7.94 from $7.75, as earnings estimates are raised by 24% for FY27 and 21% for FY28, with the uplift in the former from better hedging and lower depreciation compared with prior expectations. Underperform.

****

In an initial assessment, Macquarie found AGL Energy's FY26 result, while lower than the prior year, ahead of forecasts. Consumer EBITDA was slightly lower than the broker expected. Gas earnings were the most disappointing.

FY27 EBITDA guidance of $1.9bn-$2.2bn is in line with expectations. The broker assesses AGL is in a downgrade cycle with the wholesale base/volatility trending lower.

The focus is on FY28, with batteries only mitigating the decline to a small extent. The broker finds it curious that management flagged future volatility with coal closures.

Macquarie expects prices to recover but believes this lies beyond FY31, particularly if coal closures are delayed. Underperform. Target is $7.75.

Target price is $7.94 Current Price is $8.72 Difference: minus $0.78 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.87, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AGL as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley expects a positive initial reaction to the FY26 results from AGL Energy along with the first-time FY27 guidance. EBITDA was up 4% and slightly lower than expected. FY27 net profit guidance at the mid-point of $570m is ahead of forecasts.

In FY27 the company expects a full year contribution from the Liddell battery along with a flat level of operating expenditure. Depreciation of $50m year-on-year reveals a slower increase that reflects FY26 impairments in generation, the broker adds.

Underweight. Target is $9.28. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $9.28 Current Price is $8.72 Difference: $0.56
If AGL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.87, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AGL as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett upgrades AGL Energy to an Accumulate from a Hold with a lower target of $11.25 from $11.75.

AGL's FY26 underlying NPAT was broadly in line with expectations, the analyst observes and 26c final dividend takes FY26 distributions to 50c. The higher 55%-60% payout target for FY27 should support increased dividend forecasts.

Customer Markets performed well, and operating costs were held flat despite inflation, although lower wholesale electricity prices and higher gas costs continue to pressure generation earnings.

FY27 underlying NPAT guidance of $470-$670m is around 3% above consensus at the midpoint and is viewed as conservative, with near-term electricity market pressures largely incorporated.

FY27 EPS forecasts are lowered by -5.7% but rise in FY28 and FY29 by 0.5% and 7.3%, respectively. 

Target price is $11.25 Current Price is $8.72 Difference: $2.53
If AGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.87, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AGL as Buy (1) -

On further inspection from the first take below, FY27 and FY28 EPS forecasts rise 4% and 3%, respectively, while FY29 falls -7% after factoring in higher costs and a 12-month delay to benefits from the Retail Transformation program.

Buy rating is retained but the target slips to $10.00 from $10.40.

UBS notes the stock is trading at a -30% discount to its historical valuation multiple and is generating an appealing yield.

****

At first glance, UBS views AGL Energy's FY26 result as broadly in line, with underlying EBITDA rising 4.5% to $2.1bn and underlying NPAT declining -1.4% to $631m.

The key positive is FY27 guidance, with the midpoint for underlying NPAT around 3.5% above market expectations, while the narrower 55%-60% dividend payout range is also considered supportive, the analyst explains.

Electricity and gas portfolio margins broadly met expectations, while battery EBITDA increased to $57m despite lower volatility and weaker energy prices.

The Retail Transformation Program has been extended by one year with an additional -$100m-150m of costs, although targeted annual savings of $70m-$90m from FY30 are unchanged.

The broker sees potential upside to medium-term earnings as thermal generation retirements tighten electricity supply from 2028.

Buy. Target $10.40.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.72 Difference: $1.28
If AGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.87, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALD as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie raises its interim dividend expectations for Ampol to $1.75 to reflect a bottom-end payout of 50%, the minimum allowable under the company's policy. The broker now considers the $340m EG cash settlement to be over and above this.

This would take shareholder yield during the half year to more like $3.18/share while keeping gearing within the target of 2.0-2.5x. Target rises to $49.25 from $48.00 to reflect higher refining margins through the second half and 2027. Outperform.

Target price is $49.25 Current Price is $39.60 Difference: $9.65
If ALD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.06, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALU as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage of newly listed Alurion Resources with a Speculative Buy rating and $1.60 target, highlighting the higher risks associated with its pre-development status.

The company plans to establish a Brazilian bauxite export operation, initially targeting a 5Mtpa direct shipping project supported by a 98Mt DSO resource and existing infrastructure, with first production forecast for calendar 2030.

The broker sees Alurion's high-quality gibbsitic bauxite, low expected mining costs and proximity to infrastructure as key advantages, with the product considered well suited to Chinese alumina refineries.

At full production in calendar 2031, the broker forecasts an FCF yield of around 47% using a long-term Guinean bauxite price of US$77/t, while additional lower-grade bauxite and rare earth mineralisation provide longer-term optionality.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: $0.87
If ALU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 119% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMC as Buy (1) -

Citi reiterates its Buy rating for Amcor as the valuation is seen as "compelling" and synergies expected to somewhat derisk over the year ahead.

Management has provided a lighter EPS guide for the 2H'26 transition period but Citi points out 4Q volumes were much better-than-expected driven by foodservice, petcare & protein, while liquids & beauty/wellness were flat, and healthcare was down.

Commentary acknowledges management's 2H'26 outlook is below consensus, despite further progress on synergies and with a modest headwind from incentive compensation.

The broker's base case scenario generates a price target of US$52, some 12% above the current share price.

Target price is $65.00 Current Price is $66.24 Difference: minus $1.24 (current price is over target).
If AMC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $67.57, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Buy (1) -

ANZ Bank's 3Q26 cash earnings were around 2% ahead of the consensus 2H run rate, with Citi noting on first take core earnings were also around 2% better than expected after adjusting for the NZ class action provision.

Cost performance was a key positive, with underlying costs falling -3% and FY26 guidance maintained despite absorbing the NZ provision and merchant acquiring costs.

Revenue was slightly weaker as markets income eased, although management expects seasonality to support a better 4Q, while group NIM increased 1bp to 1.54% and ex-markets NIM rose 4bps, the analyst points out.

Asset quality remains another positive, with the bad debt charge of 5bps of GLA comparing favourably with peers, stable NPLs and CET1 of 12.5%.

The market is expected to receive the result well with better cost performance a highlight.

Buy. Target $39.25.

Target price is $39.25 Current Price is $36.39 Difference: $2.86
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.02, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

At first look, UBS views ANZ Bank's 3Q26 update as supportive of its turnaround strategy, with cash profit around 2% ahead of market expectations as lower costs and impairments offset weaker income.

Asset quality remained benign, with NPLs steady at 0.55% and the -$102m provision charge well below the 2H26 consensus run rate, while CET1 of 12.51% was in line with expectations.

Lending momentum strengthened, with net loans rising 3% q/q to $846bn, led by Institutional, while home lending returned to system growth and Business & Private Banking also improved.

The analyst points out deposits excluding Markets were flat, raising questions over customer acquisition, while there is some uncertainty around whether stronger lending growth can be delivered profitably amid increasing competition and policy changes.

Neutral rated. Target $39.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $36.39 Difference: $2.61
If ANZ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.02, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

On a first glance, Citi notes ASX’s FY26 core profit, up 5% year on year, is a 1% beat versus expectations. Revenue growth of 13% was slightly better than expected, while the material step-up in costs (21%) was as expected.

Delving in, versus Citi's forecasts each division reported marginally higher than expected revenue, with the resilient futures contract yield a positive highlight, but this was partly offset by lower net interest income.

ASX reaffirmed its total cost guidance for FY27 (up 18%-21% year on year) while suggesting its Listings pipeline is the strongest in years. Neutral and $56.50 target retained.

Target price is $56.50 Current Price is $55.51 Difference: $0.99
If ASX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $54.38

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASX as Buy (1) -

At first look, ASX's FY26 underlying NPAT of $536m was in line with UBS and around 1% ahead of consensus, with slightly stronger revenue offset by weaker net interest income.

Revenue increased 13% and expenses rose 21%, resulting in EBIT growth of 7.8%, around 2% ahead of consensus.

The analyst highlights a strong start to FY27 across listings, cash equity turnover and interest rate futures volumes, which it sees as potential sources of earnings upside.

FY27 expense growth guidance of 18%-21% and capex guidance of $180-$200m were reaffirmed, while UBS's FY27 EPS forecast is currently 4.6% above consensus.

Buy rated. Target $62.

Target price is $62.00 Current Price is $55.51 Difference: $6.49
If ASX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $54.38

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AVR as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Anteris Technologies posted first half revenues of $1.5m and expenses of -$56m, up 33% year on year. Revenues are from the legacy products not associated with DurAVR, Bell Potter notes. First US patients on the PARADIGM study were enrolled in May.

Following completion of enrolment, the follow up period for the primary endpoint on the trial is one year, hence the broker expects headline data in Jun-Sep Q of 2027.

Catalysts include the next safety and efficacy update from the DurAVR early feasibility study due later this year, most likely in the Dec Q. Bell Potter downgrades to Hold from Buy (Speculative) following recent appreciation in the share price.

Target unchanged at $13.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $12.85 Difference: $0.15
If AVR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BAP as Sell (5) -

On further inspection post the first take below, Bapcor's extension of covenant relief into FY27 is viewed as sensible and proactive given building industry headwinds.

Rising fuel prices could weigh on kilometres travelled and servicing demand while increasing CODB, Bunnings' ((WES)) expansion into auto has proved more disruptive than expected, and GPC's 2Q26 result showed A&NZ LFL sales growth slowing to 1.3% from 3.7% in 1Q26.

Rapidly increasing EV penetration is expected to have a greater impact on Bapcor's multiple than near-term earnings.

The broker retains a Sell rating, with M&A the key upside risk after reports that distressed and special-situation funds were assessing the business. Target unchanged at 40c.

***

In a first take, Citi notes Bapcor has extended its covenant relief for FY27. The broker finds this a proactive move, given industry headwinds are building as fuel prices are increasing and Bunnings ((WES)) is continuing with the expansion into automotive.

The broker's feedback is that the latter has been more disruptive than previously thought.

This is the third time in seven months the company has sought covenant relief and it is unclear to the broker how the interest margin on the debt will be affected. Sell rating maintained. Target is $0.40. The company has reiterated EBITDA guidance for FY26 of $144m-$150m.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If BAP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.41, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BVS as Neutral (3) -

Bravura Solutions delivered a FY26 result that was in line with recent guidance while FY27 guidance implies 2.5% revenue growth, Macquarie observes. All key customer contracts were renewed throughout the year.

The company has secured its first key anchor client in UK workplace pensions, which is considered an expanding area. The broker notes cost discipline and demand for the company's product support earnings.

Operating performance and capital expenditure expectations drive an upgraded cash flow outlook. Macquarie raises the target to $3.30 from $2.34 and retains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.14 Difference: $0.16
If BVS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CAR as Overweight (1) -

Since the FY26 results, Morgan Stanley is more positive regarding Car Group. The broker now envisages EV adoption creating incremental opportunities across multiple parts of the business.

The broker, in looking for internet/technology businesses with deep expertise in their vertical, that are also profitable and well capitalised, believes the company is performing well.

EV listings have started to rise on the company sites and feedback shows car dealers in Australia have gained confidence to actively buy and sell EVs. Overweight reiterated. Target rises to $35.50 from $33.50. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $35.50 Current Price is $29.00 Difference: $6.5
If CAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.81, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

On further inspection post the first look below, Citi retains a Sell rating and $135 target price with earnings forecasts largely unchanged.

The analyst believes headwinds in the mortgage market are well appreciated, but less so for the deposit market. The bank is expected to experience growth challenges in FY27.

Risks around slowing revenue growth could undermine management's AI benefits which are skewed to revenue, the analyst states.

The stock's valuation at 26x remains "demanding", the report concludes.

****

At first take, Citi views Commonwealth Bank's FY26 result as broadly in line at the underlying level, with cash earnings of $10.98bn around 1% ahead of consensus largely due to lower bad debts.

Revenue met expectations and 2H26 NIM of 2.06% was in line, although weaker asset pricing was offset by portfolio mix and treasury and markets.

Costs rose around 6% to $13.76bn, with FY27 investment spending capped at -$2.4bn and gross AI productivity benefits expected to double from around $200m in FY26, the analyst notes.

Asset quality remains sound overall, although corporate troublesome and non-performing exposures increased by 5bps during 2H26, while CET1 finished at 12%.

Compositionally the result was viewed as somewhat "softer" with the market likely to focus on the BDD trend against a deteriorating macro backdrop and the potential AI benefits in FY27.

The market is expected to receive the results negatively as expectations were high. Sell rated. Target $135.

Target price is $135.00 Current Price is $172.72 Difference: minus $37.72 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $123.94, suggesting downside of -26.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CBA as Underperform (5) -

On further analysis, Macquarie notes the FY26 results from CommBank revealed better margin trends compared with peers, albeit with heightened risk that is similar.

The broker was surprised by the decision to run down the third quarter CP top up, particularly given the challenging macro backdrop, which suggests a risk to impairments if the economy deteriorates more than expected.

The bank asserts it has flexibility to manage costs and pre-provision profits, and would maintain investment expenditure at around -$2.4bn.

Macquarie continues to believe the current valuation is stretched, raising the target to $112 from $111 as minor earnings downgrades are offset by a higher relative valuation. Underperform.

****

Macquarie, in an initial view, found CommBank's results for FY26 "relatively clean" and in line with expectations. The main issue the broker has is with the valuation, as the stock continues to trade on elevated multiples and a strong premium to peers.

Impairments surprised to the downside while second half volume growth was strong across all divisions. No guidance was provided.

Given slowing mortgage growth the bank has witnessed a -15% drop in mortgage applications since the federal budget, the broker envisages modest downside to consensus expectations.

Underperform rating. Target is $111.

Target price is $112.00 Current Price is $172.72 Difference: minus $60.72 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $123.94, suggesting downside of -26.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley expects revenue growth at CommBank will slow meaningfully in FY27 amid weaker loan growth and a lower margin. There were no surprises in the results with revenue increasing 1% in FY26 and in line with expectations.

Commentary suggests management is determined to maintain market share, leading to more competition as system growth slows. This determination is likely to increase the risk to margins, the broker suspects.

The full year payout ratio fell to 77% in FY26 from 79% in FY25 with management indicating the ratio is "moderating towards the middle" of the 70%-80% range, consistent with Morgan Stanley's assessment.

Target edges up to $124.00 from $123.50. Underweight. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $124.00 Current Price is $172.72 Difference: minus $48.72 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $123.94, suggesting downside of -26.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Commonwealth Bank's FY26 cash NPAT of $10.98bn rose 7.1% and was slightly ahead of Ord Minnett's expectations, primarily due to a lower-than-forecast bad debt charge.

NIM of 2.05% was broadly in line and improved 2bps in 2H, although the broker expects greater pressure in FY27 from competition, funding costs and deposit mix, while mortgage applications have weakened since the Federal Budget.

Asset quality remains strong but has softened, with troublesome and non-performing loans and home loan arrears increasing, while CET1 declined to 12.0% but remains comfortably above regulatory requirements.

EPS forecasts slip by -1.6%, -0.6% and -0.4% for FY27, FY28 and FY29, respectively, mainly reflecting higher credit impairment charges.

While CommBank remains the broker's preferred Australian banking franchise on quality, its valuation is considered expensive and Sell is retained with an unchanged $120 target.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $172.72 Difference: minus $52.72 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $123.94, suggesting downside of -26.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CLW as Buy (1) -

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT announced FY26 operating earnings of $181.9m, with EPS and DPS of 25.5c both in line with guidance and expectations, Citi notes at first glance.

FY27 EPS and DPS guidance is flat at 25.5c, broadly matching consensus but below the analyst's 26.2c forecast, pointing to limited near-term earnings growth.

Positively, NTA increased 2.6% to $4.71 per share, leaving the stock trading at an -18% discount, while pro forma gearing of 27.5% remains within the 25%-35% target range.

Additional portfolio activity was announced across acquisitions and divestments, although Citi flags the cessation of look-through gearing disclosure as an area of focus.

The stock is expected to trade up slightly. Buy. Target $4.10.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.79 Difference: $0.31
If CLW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.91, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CLW as Sell (5) -

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT's FY26 operating earnings of $181.9m and EPS of 25.5c were in line with UBS and consensus at first look, while NTA increased 2.6% to $4.71 per share.

The analyst believes the operational metrics remained solid, with occupancy at 99.9%, LFL rent growth of 3.0% and a WALE of 9.2 years, while balance sheet gearing declined to 27.5%.

FY27 interest rate hedging increased to 85% at an unchanged 3.0% hedge rate with refinancing benefits, although the cost of debt increased to 4.7% and look-through gearing is no longer disclosed.

FY27 EPS and DPS guidance of 25.5c implies no growth, with EPS slightly below consensus but ahead of UBS's 25.3c forecast.

Sell rated. Target $3.50.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.79 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If CLW meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.91, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

Computershare delivered a dividend that beat Macquarie's expectations in FY26, at $0.65, as the business is not in a position to execute on buybacks. It remains on track to achieve net cash exiting FY27.

FY27 guidance is in line with expectations, with margin income at $770m. Management expects further cost reductions of around -$50m in FY27.

At current levels the broker considers the valuation fair and will be observing equity and debt market volumes before becoming more bullish on the stock. Neutral retained. Target is raised to $39 from $38.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $40.61 Difference: minus $1.61 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $40.26, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CPU as Hold (3) -

Computershare's FY26 Management NPAT of US$849.8m was 1% ahead of consensus, with stronger operating revenue and margin income partly offset by higher operating expenses, Ord Minnett explains.

Margin income of US$755.6m also beat expectations as higher client balances offset lower yields, while additional hedging has reduced earnings sensitivity to interest rate movements.

FY27 Management EPS is guided to increase around 6% to US$1.54, in line with expectations, supported by higher client balances, improved margin income and lower interest costs.

FY27-FY29 EPS forecasts lift by less than 1%. Target price rises to $43.75 due to a higher valuation multiple being ascribed to the stock.

Hold rating retained with much of the stock price already seen as reflecting the earnings upside potential.

Target price is $43.75 Current Price is $40.61 Difference: $3.14
If CPU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.26, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CWY as No Rating (-1) -

Cleanaway Waste Management has received a non-binding indicative offer at $3.13 a share from EQT Infrastructure. The conditional proposal values the business at $9.4bn, representing 32% premium to the last close, Macquarie notes.

The board intends to recommend the offer subject to no superior proposal and has provided up to 9 weeks of exclusive due diligence. The company expects underlying EBIT of $500m-$530m in FY27, which compares with reconfirmed FY26 guidance of $470m.

The FY27 outlook is below the broker's estimates with the company citing further IT investment and strategy-related expenditure. Macquarie is restricted on providing a rating and target at present.

Current Price is $2.37. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.87, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DXI as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Dexus Industria REIT announced its FY26 result with funds from operations of 17.6c, slightly above guidance and consensus. FY27 guidance is for FFO of 17.0c and a dividend of 16.6c, below consensus of 17.6c and 16.7c.

Bell Potter believes the REIT is taking the right approach to reset its hedge book at a de minimis cost to regrow sooner and ahead of peers, which while dilutive on a one-year basis, should drive superior earnings CAGR on a 2-3-year view.

Given a flat and elevated yield curve, as this shifts, Dexus Industria is positioned to use its balance sheet. Post the weak share price response, Bell Potter upgrades to Buy from Hold on an improved earnings outlook and compelling valuation.

Target unchanged at $2.70.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: $0.35
If DXI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.64, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DXI as Outperform (1) -

Dexus Industria REIT delivered FY26 FFO/share of 17.6 cents that beat guidance, amid strong leasing outcomes. Macquarie observes FY27 FFO/share guidance of 17.0c has missed expectations because of the hedge restructure.

The stock is considered attractive at a 7% distribution yield and -30% discount to NTA, and the strong balance sheet is positioned to fund both the buyback and development.

The broker remains attracted to the pure industrial exposure, embedded rental growth and active capital management. Target is reduced to $2.77 from $2.83 and an Outperform rating is maintained.

Target price is $2.77 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: $0.42
If DXI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.64, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EBR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Following the recent pre-release of headline revenue and operating metrics, EBR Systems followed up with the formal quarterly result, which showed operating cash outflow of -US$17.2m, slightly better than 1Q26, Bell Potter notes.

Cash costs showed a minor increase to -US$21.3m. Cash receipts are still modest at US$3.6m but doubling in the period, with receipts matching sales.

Considering earnings adjustments, Bell Potter expects EBR will need more funding. In bringing forward an assumption on the next funding round, the broker now assumes EBR will need US$100m in mid-2027. This has a material impact on valuation.

Target falls to 70c from 90c, Speculative Buy retained.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.41
If EBR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 141% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FCL as Buy (1) -

On a first glance, Citi notes Fineos Corp reported first half profit slightly ahead of consensus, with both revenue and earnings in-line with the broker's forecast.

Acceleration in annual recurring revenue growth and strong subscription revenue growth are positives, while a lower gross margin, weaker Services revenue and lower operating cash flow due to timing of receipts were negatives.

An in-line result and the strong ARR growth suggests that Fineos should be on-track to hit the mid-point of its revenue guidance. Citi sees potential for the share price to react positively to the ARR growth. Buy and $2.95 target retained.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: $0.85
If FCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FPR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley points out FleetPartners Group has received bids from three interested parties. The stock is now likely to trade on the probabilities of a deal as opposed to fundamentals.

On the broker's calculations at a bid price of $4/share this is at the top end of the company's "headline" 5-year valuation range.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating, given the scope for competitive tension. Target rises to $4.00 from $3.50. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.10 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If FPR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.61, suggesting downside of -13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HDN as Neutral (3) -

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT delivered FY26 FFO of $187.1m, broadly in line with expectations, with comparable NOI growth of 4.0%, re-leasing spreads of 5.9% and occupancy remaining high at 99%, at UBS' first look.

The analyst highlights the REIT's strong operating performance, with rent collection above 99%, NOI growth exceeding weighted average cost of capital of 3.6% and more than $650m of future development opportunities.

The key negative is rising funding costs, with the average cost of debt increasing to 5.0% and new hedges secured at materially higher rates, while gearing increased to 35.7%.

As a result, FY27 FFO per security guidance of 8.8c implies a -2% decline and is around -3% below UBS and consensus forecasts, despite another 4.0% of comparable NOI growth, while DPS is guided flat at 8.6c.

Neutral rated. Target $1.35.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.075
If HDN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.32, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IAG as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, Insurance Australia Group's FY26 result is viewed by Citi  as slightly soft, but the final DPS of 20c was higher than forecast.

Cash earnings missed consensus by around -4% and insurance profit of $1.552bn missed by -3%, reflecting higher reinsurance costs, a weaker underlying margin and a larger-than-expected OEI deduction.

The underlying insurance margin of 15.0% also missed, although RACQI improved materially in 2H and became modestly margin accretive.

Positively, FY27 GWP growth guidance of 5%-8% is well above the 3.6% consensus forecast.  FY27 reported insurance margin guidance of 14.5%-16.5% encompasses the analyst's current 15.8% forecast, with potential for around 1ppt of upside if natural perils track in line with averages.

Neutral rated. Target $9. Citi notes the stock could trade down today.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.23 Difference: $0.77
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.09, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IAG as Buy (1) -

UBS observes on first take, Insurance Australia Group's FY26 cash NPAT of $1.025bn was -2.8% below expectations, and -4.1% below consensus, reflecting higher minority interests, while underlying insurance profit also missed forecast by -4.8%.

The weaker underlying resulted from higher reinsurance costs and a 15.0% underlying insurance margin, with NZ Intermediated the main area of weakness, while RACQ remained below potential despite improving materially in 2H.

Positively, FY27 GWP growth guidance of 5%-8% is well ahead of consensus at 3.6%, supported by growth across Retail and Intermediated and a full-year contribution from RACQI, the analyst highlights.

Reported insurance margin guidance of 14.5%-16.5% also points to improvement, with UBS noting potential upside of around 1ppt if natural peril costs track below the company's allowance.

Buy. Target $9.45.

Target price is $9.45 Current Price is $8.23 Difference: $1.22
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.09, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates L1G as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (1) -

Macquarie initiates coverage on L1 Group with an Outperform rating and $1.25 target. The business has resilient and attractive fee structures amid robust cost control and should benefit from operating leverage over time.

Macquarie assesses the merger of L1 Capital and Platinum is highly complementary and the business acted swiftly to take advantage of robust L1 Capital fund performance.

Inflows are expected to accelerate and commentary suggests the balance sheet should support growth opportunities.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.1
If L1G meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MEK as Buy (1) -

Morgans expects Meeka Metals to rebound in FY27 following a difficult 2H26 and a site visit, supported by the ongoing Andy Well underground ramp-up in 1H and first ore from Turnberry in 3Q.

The broker views the early closure of open pit mining as logical and expects improved unit economics and cash outflows, with mining costs reducing by $4m–$6m per quarter through 1H27 while production remains broadly unaffected.

Post 4Q result, forecasts are tweaked to reflect stockpiles contributing around 40%-50% of processed ore through 1H27 and increases Andy Well underground assumptions, including forecast mined grade of 3.0g/t.

The analyst sees further upside from higher stockpile grades, increased mill throughput and additional high-grade exploration success and resource conversion.

Following an analyst change, Morgans retains Buy with a $0.31 target, down from 35c.

Target price is $0.31 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0.2
If MEK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 182% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORA as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, Citi notes Orora's FY26 EBIT of $248m was broadly in line with consensus, with a steady Cans performance offset by ongoing mix pressure in Global Glass.

Cans volume growth of 6% was highlighted as well as market share gains at Saverglass as positives, while the planned resumption of the buyback, October restart of RAK production and glass improvement initiatives provide potential upside.

Saverglass continues to be impacted by price and mix headwinds, Gawler volumes declined -2%, and group and Saverglass EBIT are expected to fall in FY27, the analyst points out.

Citi sees the absence of further negative developments as a relief, although the near-term operating environment for Saverglass remains challenging.

Neutral, High risk rated. Target $1.60.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.085
If ORA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.59, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORA as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, Orora reported FY26 underlying net profit that was slightly ahead of Macquarie's estimates. The reported net loss of -$617m included -$759m in significant items. Lower group EBIT is expected in FY27.

Saverglass EBIT in FY27 is expected to be lower and the broker currently forecasts a fall of -10.5% to EUR57m. The company is targeting improvement in earnings for the division by FY30.

Neutral retained. The restart of the buyback is considered positive. Target is $1.55.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.035
If ORA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.59, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORA as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, UBS points out Orora's FY26 EBIT of $248m fell -5% but was in line with consensus, with stronger Cans earnings offset by continued weakness at Saverglass.

The analyst highlights 6.3% Cans volume growth, strong operating cash flow and the resumption of the share buyback as positives, while net debt of $481m left leverage at a manageable 1.2x.

Saverglass remains the key negative, the broker emphasises, with EBIT falling -18% despite higher volumes as weaker product mix weighed on earnings, while a -$743m non-cash impairment reflects a delayed recovery in premium spirits demand.

FY27 group EBIT is expected to decline, broadly in line with expectations, as growth in Cans and stable Gawler earnings are offset by further Saverglass weakness amid tariffs, Middle East disruption and adverse price and mix effects.

Neutral rated. Target $1.70.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.185
If ORA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.59, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Neutral (3) -

Origin Energy's FY26 net profit was in line with Macquarie's estimates. The dividend was flat at $0.63 and below expectations but, in an initial view, the broker considers this sensible given the current environment.

The company has flagged a challenging FY28 and signalled the Otway repricing may also hurt its performance. The main unknown for Macquarie is the degree of losses the business will endure in energy services and international. Neutral rating and $10 target.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $11.26 Difference: minus $1.26 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.32, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Origin Energy delivered a strong FY26 result, UBS notes at first glance, with underlying EBITDA of $3.22bn and underlying NPAT of $1.16bn beating consensus by 3% and 2%, respectively.

Energy Markets EBITDA of $1.70bn was a positive, supported by lower servicing and energy procurement costs, while FY27 guidance of $1.55–1.85bn is around 5.5% above consensus at the midpoint and demonstrates resilience to softer near-term electricity prices.

The broker expects Origin's flexible generation and growing battery portfolio to help offset lower electricity prices, creating potential upside to FY28 Energy Markets earnings expectations.

The final dividend was viewed as conservative given the strong balance sheet, although FY27 capex guidance of $450–650m is materially below consensus and provides scope for dividend growth.

Buy rated. Target $13.45.

Target price is $13.45 Current Price is $11.26 Difference: $2.19
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.32, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PMV as Buy (1) -

Premier Investments' trading update saw Premier Retail earnings missing guidance by -4% and consensus by -3%. The core brand, Peter Alexander (70% of Premier Retail) continued to grow revenue despite 9.2% comparables in the 2H26, Bell Potter notes.

However, the Smiggle brand, ahead of the key strategy reset, declined -16% on 2H26.

The key announcement was the exit of the PA brand in the UK, with the brand’s growth to be driven via global wholesale partnerships. For the Smiggle brand, management reiterated confidence in the strategy reset with product repositioning into innovated new stock currently in action.

While Bell Potter expects a period of slow growth near to medium term, the broker views the forward multiple as attractive considering the Retail division together with the company’s equity investments, land bank and cash position while retaining a strong balance sheet supportive of M&A.

Target falls to $16.50 from $18.00, Buy retained.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $11.96 Difference: $4.54
If PMV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.98, suggesting upside of 30.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PMV as Outperform (1) -

Premier Investments has lowered retail EBIT guidance by -4% to $176m, driven by challenging discretionary retail conditions.

Macquarie suspects the downgrade is stemming from gross margin pressure from inventory clearances at Smiggle, along with discounting generally.

The broker forecasts just 2% like-for-like growth for Peter Alexander in the second half and a decline of -1% in the first half of FY27.

Outperform retained. Target is $15.70.

Target price is $15.70 Current Price is $11.96 Difference: $3.74
If PMV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.98, suggesting upside of 30.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PMV as Buy (1) -

Premier Investments lowered FY26 underlying Premier Retail EBIT guidance to approximately $176m from $183m after sales of $795.5m missed UBS and consensus.

Weak discretionary spending caused negative comparable sales and operating deleverage, while the company also announced its withdrawal from Peter Alexander's loss-making UK stores.

UBS regards the UK exit as prudent and expects future growth from Peter Alexander in A&NZ, Malaysian concessions and, eventually, a Smiggle recovery.

The investment case is supported by a low valuation and ongoing buyback, but depends on a consumer recovery and successful execution of Smiggle's repositioning.

UBS maintains Buy but cuts its price target by -5.7% to $16.50 from $17.50. Forecast EPS falls -2.3% in FY26, -6.7% in FY27 and -5.3% in FY28, reflecting weaker retail sales and margins plus UK exit costs; principal risks are prolonged discretionary weakness and turnaround execution.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $11.96 Difference: $4.54
If PMV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.98, suggesting upside of 30.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SEK as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Seek produced an FY26 broadly in-line with expectations at 29% growth in earnings and 13% growth in the fully franked dividend for a full-year payout of 52cps as expected, however the result was weighed down by a soft outlook, Bell Potter notes.

Seek guided to weaker than expected A&NZ volumes at mid-single digit declines as a base case due to ongoing operating headwinds, though somewhat offset by its ability to generate yield growth of 10% as a floor.

Bell Potter downgrades to Hold from Buy and awaits a positive shift in sentiment or visibility on jobs volumes recovery. 

Similarly, the broker suspects a potential growth fund catalyst is a 2H27 story. Macro-based headwinds suggest difficult sentiment near-term for the stock.

Target falls to $15.20 from $18.58.

Target price is $15.20 Current Price is $13.77 Difference: $1.43
If SEK meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.51, suggesting upside of 33.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SEK as Neutral (3) -

Seek reported net profit in FY26 that was up 28% and at the lower end of guidance, consistent with Macquarie's expectations. The broker forecasts a flat outcome for FY27 net profit, at $199m, with advertising volumes the swing factor.

The cyclical and structural headwinds are preventing visibility on the magnitude of the downside risks to the job market, and hence advertising volumes or the timing of any stabilisation. The broker considers this a key catalyst for a re-rating. Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $13.75 from $15.75.

Target price is $13.75 Current Price is $13.77 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If SEK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.51, suggesting upside of 33.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SEK as Buy (-1) -

Ord Minnett notes Seek's FY26 result was consistent with expectations, with adjusted NPAT rising 28% to $199m as stronger pricing offset continued weakness in employment advertising volumes.

The analyst points out A&NZ revenue increased 12% despite lower volumes, while Asia also benefited from higher job ad yields against a -12% decline in paid ads.

FY27 guidance disappointed, with the midpoint of EBITDA and NPAT guidance below consensus as softer volumes and increased D&A constrain growth.

The broker considers the subsequent share price weakness overdone, citing further pricing benefits, flexibility over costs and potential 11%-15% EPS upside if proceeds from more than $1bn of Growth Fund asset sales are directed towards buybacks or debt reduction.

FY27 and FY28 earnings forecasts are reduced by -8.1% and -8.6%, respectively. Buy rating and the $22 target are maintained.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $13.77 Difference: $8.23
If SEK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.51, suggesting upside of 33.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SEK as Buy (1) -

Seek's FY27 cash-earnings guidance broadly matched UBS, but adjusted NPAT at the midpoint missed by -7% because of weaker Asian volumes, currency effects and higher depreciation.

UBS welcomes Seek lifting its medium-term A&NZ yield-growth target to at least 10% while lowering expected cost growth to mid-single digits.

Job-ad volumes remain the key swing factor: July A&NZ volumes fell an estimated -4.7% year-on-year, while UBS cuts its FY27 Asian volume forecast to -8% from -5%.

If volumes stabilise in FY28, UBS forecasts EBITDA growth of 17% and adjusted NPAT growth above 20%; disposal of Seek's Growth Fund assets could also support debt reduction and capital returns.

UBS maintains Buy and raises its price target by 4.8% to $19.70 from $18.80. Forecast adjusted EPS falls -9% in FY27, -9% in FY28 and -7% in FY29.

The report concludes the main risk is further employment-market weakness, while stronger pricing yields provide the principal upside.

Target price is $19.70 Current Price is $13.77 Difference: $5.93
If SEK meets the UBS target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.51, suggesting upside of 33.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

On further inspection, post the initial take below, Citi believes the group is meeting expectations, and its underlying insurance margin is solid despite modest downward pressure.

Potential upside to the reported margin could come from favourable weather and, over time, higher reinsurance profit commissions, while GWP growth is expected to improve slightly in FY27 despite ongoing small market share losses in Australian consumer classes.

Capital generation remains strong, with much of the excess being returned to shareholders, although modest growth prospects leave the company largely fairly valued.

EPS forecasts are raised by 4% for FY27 and 3% for FY28. Neutral is retained and the target rises to $19.80 from $19.25.

***

At first look, Suncorp Group announced FY26 cash earnings of $1,042m, slightly lower than Citi's forecast but above consensus.

The difference is attributed to a loss of -$45m offset by marginally better income on shareholders' funds and lower non-controlling interests.

Gross written premium growth of 2.7% was generated with net investment revenue growth of 5.5%, which was a slight beat on the analyst's forecast and a slight miss on consensus.

Management announced a capital return of around $350m versus $400m expected, albeit the broker points out the difference is the special DPS rather than the buyback.

FY27 guidance seems basically in line with an additional 10c special dividend. The results are labelled largely in line as is guidance.

Neutral rated. Target $19.25.

Target price is $19.80 Current Price is $19.18 Difference: $0.62
If SUN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.15, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie considers the FY27 guidance from Suncorp Group is robust with gross written premium growth of 3%-5% reflecting pricing for ongoing inflation pressures in the consumer and personal injury portfolios.

The underlying insurance margin is expected at the upper end of the 10%-12% range. The new $250m on-market share buyback along with a $0.10 special dividend was not expected.

The new aggregate reinsurance program provides options and, alongside a perpetual-style buyback, the broker expects long-term downside support for the stock price and earnings.

Outperform rating maintained. Target rises to $20.60 from $20.30.

Target price is $20.60 Current Price is $19.18 Difference: $1.42
If SUN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.15, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SUN as Hold (3) -

Suncorp's FY26 result was broadly in line with Ord Minnett's expectations.

Underlying insurance earnings increased 4.5% to $1.64bn and the insurance margin of 11.8% remained near the upper end of its 10%-12% target range.

The analyst sees capital returns as a key positive, with a fully franked 52c final dividend, an additional 10c special dividend and a further share buyback of up to $250m.

The broker is cautious on FY27 guidance, viewing 3%-5% GWP growth as potentially difficult to achieve as consumer pricing moderates and commercial lines face pressure, while higher aggregate reinsurance costs could challenge margin expectations.

Cost flexibility and more favourable weather provide potential upside, while the strong balance sheet and sustained margins limit downside risk.

EPS forecasts increase 0.3%, 1.2% and 0.4% for FY27, FY28 and FY29, respectively, with Hold and the $18.50 target unchanged.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $19.18 Difference: minus $0.68 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.15, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUN as Buy (1) -

On further analysis, UBS maintains Buy and raises its price target by 3.4% to $21.50 from $20.80. Forecast FY27 EPS increases 0.8% and FY28 EPS 2.1%, reflecting stronger margins and annual buybacks of $250m; key risks are adverse weather, claims inflation, weak policy volumes and competitive pricing.

It is the broker's assessment that Suncorp's FY26 cash NPAT of $1.04bn beat expectations by 1.5%, while the underlying insurance trading ratio of 11.8% met expectations.

Stronger reserve releases supported the result, and a $250m buyback plus 10c special dividend exceeded expectations.

UBS sees asymmetric upside to Suncorp's FY27 margin guidance, supported by new reinsurance protection and potentially benign El Nino conditions.

However, the need for further home and motor premium increases may suppress policy volumes.

****

In the first assessment, UBS notes FY26 cash net profit from Suncorp Group was ahead of expectations amid higher reserve releases. Capital returns were stronger than expected, with a $0.10 special dividend and $250m buyback.

Guidance for FY27 is for gross written premium growth between 3%-5%. Buy rating and $20.80 target.

Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $19.18 Difference: $2.32
If SUN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.15, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TCL as Neutral (3) -

At first look, Transurban Group's FY26 EBITDA rose 7.5%, but missed consensus by -1.5% and Citi's own forecast. Free cash flow and opex were in line with the DPS pre-announced at 69c.

FY27 distribution guidance of 72c came in as expected, but above the broker's forecast.

In terms of new updates, the Brisbane Logan West upgrade project has moved to procurement request for tender in April 2026, and a bid for the I-24 project in Tennessee in partnership with Ferrovial has been submitted.

Management has decided not to take part in the I-285 bid submission.

The stock has been softer into the result and may perform a little better today, Citi points out. Neutral. Target $15.60.

Target price is $15.60 Current Price is $14.63 Difference: $0.97
If TCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.28, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TCL as Neutral (3) -

In an initial view, Transurban Group delivered FY26 EBITDA that was lower than anticipated, with Macquarie describing the performance in Victoria as "terrible". US performance was also weaker amid higher maintenance costs.

The Sydney toll reform has been completed, now progressing through environmental approval for the widening. The main surprise to the broker was withdrawal of the I-285 projects.

Neutral rating and $13.85 target.

Target price is $13.85 Current Price is $14.63 Difference: minus $0.78 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.28, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TLS as Neutral (3) -

At first look, Citi notes Telstra Group's FY26 underlying NPAT of $2.5bn was 2% ahead of consensus, helped by a lower effective tax rate, while underlying EBITDA was broadly in line and operating costs fell -3%.

The new $1bn buyback, solid cost control and progress at the Aura network are viewed as positive factors, while network services EBITDA also benefited from lower costs.

Offsetting this, mobile postpaid subscriber numbers missed the broker's forecast by -12,000 amid higher churn, ARPU unexpectedly declined to $45.33, Amplitel EBITDA weakened and expected strategic investment increased to -$1.8bn from -$1.6bn.

FY27 EBITDA guidance of $8.5bn–$8.8bn is broadly in line with consensus, but cash EBIT guidance is around -2% below Citi and consensus at the midpoint as business as usual capex is higher than expected.

Commentary highlights Telstra remains on track for its FY30 targets. Neutral rated. Target $5.50.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: $0.5
If TLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.35, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLS as Neutral (3) -

On first assessment, Telstra's FY26 underlying EBITDA after leases rose 4% to $8.34bn, matching UBS and consensus, while underlying NPAT increased 5% to $2.46bn.

Mobile revenue and subscriber additions were slightly "soft", fixed consumer and international operations missed expectations, and capex was 5% above UBS due to increased investment in Aura; the dividend rose 11% to 21c.

FY27 guidance calls for underlying EBITDA after leases of $8.5-$8.8bn and cash EBIT of $4.75-$4.95bn. The EBITDA midpoint is broadly in line with expectations, but cash EBIT is -2% below consensus because of higher business-as-usual capex; Telstra also announced an expected but supportive on-market buyback of up to $1bn.

UBS keeps a Neutral rating and $5.30 price target.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: $0.3
If TLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.35, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Buy (1) -

Against the backdrop of two updates, one on Monday and one today, Citi sees few new highlights from the FY26 results.

The analyst has, however, been left with a more positive impression post the management conference call in regards to the company's turnaround prospects.

Notably, the success being evidenced at Penfolds with the inventory depletions, as well as improved management of the grey market.

The broker anticipates the stock will continue to move higher but the valuation currently ascribed is no longer considered a "bargain".

Further upside will need to be generated from material earnings upgrades, rather than improved depletion metrics. The cost out could also surprise to the upside in FY27. Buy rated. Target $6.57.

Target price is $6.57 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: $1.07
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.51, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

On initial assessment, Treasury Wine Estates' FY26 EBIT of $492.3m, down -36% year-on-year, matched UBS and company guidance and was 1% above consensus.

Underlying NPAT of $275.3m beat UBS by 3%, with Treasury Collective outperforming expectations, Penfolds slightly missing and Treasury Americas broadly in line; net debt remained elevated at $1.78bn, or 2.8 times EBITDA.

Management maintained guidance for FY27 EBIT to be at least level with FY26, supported by $40m of cost savings, although earnings are expected to be weighted 55% to the second half.

Penfolds growth should be offset by US distributor inventory reductions, including inventory clearance at nil margin, while the longer-term targets of an EBIT margin above 25% and leverage below two times by FY28 were retained.

UBS keeps a Neutral rating and unchanged $6.25 price target, with no forecast dividend.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: $0.75
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.51, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VEA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects Viva Energy to deliver some targets around the unmanned-site conversions program at its first-half results as well as commentary around the dialling back of the OTR conversions in favour of new-to-industry sites.

Commentary on the Geelong repair and replace is also anticipated. Target is raised to $3.75 from $3.70 to reflect higher refining margins in the second half and 2027. Outperform.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $2.71 Difference: $1.04
If VEA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.09, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources