Australian Broker Call

Citi rates A2M as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi downgrades its rating for A2M to Sell from Neutral, citing downside risk from ongoing supply challenges, largely outside management's control.

These issues come at a difficult time, the analyst points out, with industry volumes under pressure following a weaker 2025 birth rate, with impacts potentially extending into FY27.

While supportive of the company's strategy and business model, Citi feels the FY26 PE multiple of 28x leaves limited room for error.

The broker sets a $5.85 target price, down from $8.40, and adopts a more cautious stance.

Target price is $5.85 Current Price is $6.13 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.10, suggesting upside of 39.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AGL as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Ord Minnett views an increasing downside risk to earnings for AGL Energy as the electricity market transition evolves less favourably compared with prior expectations.

Battery capacity in the National Electricity Market is being deployed materially faster than required in the absence of corresponding coal-fired retirement.

The excess flexibility is suppressing price volatility and reducing the earnings potential for batteries and other flexible generation assets such as gas peakers and hydro.

As a result, the broker downgrades to Hold from Buy and reduces the target to $11.75 from $13.25. Earnings estimates are reduced by -10% for FY27 and -17% for FY28.

Target price is $11.75 Current Price is $9.09 Difference: $2.66
If AGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.57, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALQ as Buy (1) -

At first take, UBS notes ALS Ltd announced FY26 sales up 11% y/y which was broadly in line while earnings (EBIT) rose 19% y/y, a slight beat on the broker's forecast. Net profit after tax also was slightly better than anticipated for both UBS and consensus.

FY27 guidance and commentary around the outlook also aligned with consensus estimates, with forex and the Middle East war generating some headwinds in terms of cost inflation of the order of -$10m to -$15m.

Management is aiming for mid-high single digit revenue growth for FY27 and similar rate of margin improvement at 129bps.

Notably the commodities business is outperforming while Life Sciences came in slightly lower than consensus forecasts for 2H26.

Buy rated with a $26 target.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $22.20 Difference: $3.8
If ALQ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.76, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has reviewed the outlook for Autosports Group given the substantial shift in the vehicle market that is underway, as BEV (battery electric vehicles) sales are up 92% in the financial year to date and order intake is rising to 40% of total.

Demand continues to outstrip supply, the broker notes, and the current fuel concerns have weakened demand for diesel vehicles in particular, driving increased discounting in order to clear inventory.

Recent rate rises and weaker demand for conventional vehicles pose downside risk to revenue and margins, Macquarie concludes. Target is lowered to $3.25 from $5.19 while an Outperform rating is maintained.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $1.04
If ASG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASK as Neutral (3) -

Citi, in a flash update, highlights Abacus Group ((ABG)) is internalising the management of Abacus Storage King, which will involve a binding agreement to sell 100% of the shares in Abacus Storage Funds Management, the entity responsible for Abacus Storage King.

June 30 is flagged as the implementation date. Abacus Group will receive $19m plus around $5m for the net assets of the target companies, the analyst explains.

Abacus Group has reaffirmed its FY26 distribution guidance of 8.5c.

Abacus Storage King is rated Neutral. Target $1.60. The broker expects the market to react more positively due to the apparent attractive internalisation.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.42 Difference: $0.18
If ASK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.58, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AVH as Speculative Hold (3) -

Avita Medical announced 1Q26 revenue growth up 4% y/y and generated an earnings (EBIT) loss of -$8.8m against a prior loss of -$15.6m for the comparable period.

Bell Potter notes operating cash burn rose to -$9.9m from -$5.1m in 4Q25 arising from year-end bonuses and a rise in receivables. The cash burn is anticipated to decline by half over 2Q26.

Revenue of $19.3m over the quarter was highlighted as nearing a record high with most generated from 175 specialist burn units and L1 trauma centres. FY26 revenue guidance is considered as achievable post the result.

Speculative Hold rating retained with an unchanged $1.20 target.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $0.02
If AVH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AVH as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans views Avita Medical's first quarter result as a step in the right direction, with solid sequential revenue growth and reaffirmed FY26 guidance. The cash balance is seen as the key near-term concern.

Management has guided to a material reduction in cash burn in the second quarter, which should meaningfully narrow the funding deficit, though balance sheet pressure remains elevated, the analysts caution.

The broker believes the worst of the reimbursement-related headwinds are now behind the company, with all seven Medicare Administrative Contractors publishing Recell reimbursement rates.

Operational discipline and improving utilisation trends are viewed positively, although execution and funding risks remain elevated.

Morgans retains a Speculative Buy rating and $1.35 valuation.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $0.17
If AVH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BAP as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes Bapcor faced a difficult balancing act attempting to stabilise sales and market share while simultaneously downgrading guidance issued at the February capital raising.

The broker cuts its earnings forecasts by -38%-43%, citing significant operating deleverage, and lowers its target price by around -40% to 25c.

Concerns remain around weak retail conditions, profitability across smaller regional markets and ongoing balance sheet pressure, with Morgan Stanley forecasting negative free cash flow (FCF) in FY26. Marginally positive free cash flow is forecast for FY27.

The broker retains an Underweight rating, viewing Bapcor as a "show me" turnaround story. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: minus $0.145 (current price is over target).
If BAP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.41, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BAP as Trim (4) -

Morgans views Bapcor's latest downgrade as disappointing but largely unsurprising, with the company continuing to navigate a difficult turnaround amid weakening trading conditions and elevated cost pressures.

FY26 earnings guidance was cut less than three months after the recent capital raising, the analyst notes, with softer consumer and business sentiment, higher rates and inflationary pressures weighing on performance.

While some operational initiatives are gaining traction and sales trends improved modestly through February to April, execution continues to be overshadowed by external headwinds.

Given ongoing earnings volatility, delayed deleveraging and limited visibility, Morgans lowers its target by -20c to 41c. Trim rating retained.

Target price is $0.41 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.015
If BAP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.41, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BXB as Buy (1) -

In a surprise earnings downgrade, Brambles has announced it has been impacted by issues related to labour availability at subcontractors for -US$60m for one quarter. This includes lost sales of around -US$20m and higher costs of -US$40m.

Notably, two subcontractors decided to leave repair network mid-contract due to labour challenges from reduced US immigration and pallet repairing not part of their core business.

As volumes rose in April the constraints started to emerge the broker explains. Management is seeking to buy 2m pallets on top of the 4m pallets in storage to address the problem and flags the challenges are unlikely to persist.

Regarding possible structural cost pressures, Citi anticipates Brambles would pass on any rises through price.

Target $27.55. Buy.

Target price is $27.55 Current Price is $22.10 Difference: $5.45
If BXB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.28, suggesting upside of 47.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BXB as Neutral (3) -

In an early assessment, Macquarie suggests today's FY26 trading update by Brambles reflects mounting operational pressures across its pallet network.

Management narrowed FY26 revenue growth guidance to 2%-3% from 3%-4% and underlying profit growth guidance to 3%-5% from 8%-11%.

Service level issues have been compounded by subcontractor capacity constraints in the US, the analyst observes. This has resulted in higher supply chain costs and increased investment in pallet relocations, repairs and new pallet purchases.

While strong new business momentum and resilient demand conditions provided some offset, commentary cautions earnings risks remain elevated. It's thought operational challenges may take time to normalise and for higher costs to be recovered through pricing.

Neutral rating. Target $23.15

Target price is $23.15 Current Price is $22.10 Difference: $1.05
If BXB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.28, suggesting upside of 47.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CVL as Buy (1) -

Civmec announced net profit after tax up 45.2% for 3Q26 on revenue uplift of 54.1% over the same period, Bell Potter remarks.

Against earnings forecasts, revenue of $232.2m in 4Q26 (versus $244.2m in 3Q) seems very achievable according to the analyst. While earnings (EBITDA) margins were slightly better than expected, resulting in a slight uplift in FY26 earnings (EBITDA) margin forecasts.

Notably tendering activity remains strong across most divisions. The order book fell slightly to $1.3bn at March quarter end from $1.35bn at the end of the Dec quarter.

EPS forecasts are tweaked higher for FY26, FY27 on higher revenue assumptions for energy and infrastructure.

Buy rating and $1.90 target are unchanged.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.65 Difference: $0.255
If CVL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ELD as Buy (1) -

In a flash update, Citi notes Elders' 1H26 revenue came in 1% above consensus while earnings (EBIT) missed consensus expectations by -7% arising from higher corporate costs including IT. This is expected to continue into FY27.

Higher livestock prices boosted agency services gross profit, up 14.2%, and rural services gross profit advanced 4.5%, which is considered as a positive result against a challenging macro backdrop.

Management pointed to high livestock and wool prices as a positive. The analyst points to dry conditions in northern NSW as a potential impact on crop protection volumes.

Stock is expected to trade down on higher corporate costs. Buy retained. Target $8.45.

Target price is $8.45 Current Price is $7.20 Difference: $1.25
If ELD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.38, suggesting upside of 51.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ELD as Outperform (1) -

At first glance, Macquarie views today's first half result by Elders as mixed, with stronger gross margins and solid performances across key divisions offset by a higher-than-expected cost base.

Underlying profit of $38m missed forecasts by the broker and consensus by around -11%. Leverage also rose above the company's target range following working capital outflows and acquisition-related impacts, the analyst explains.

Commentary highlights ongoing strength in the Agency business with second half earnings to benefit from Delta Ag synergies, SysMod integration gains and improved seasonal conditions for the winter crop.

Outperform rating. Target $8.50.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.20 Difference: $1.3
If ELD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.38, suggesting upside of 51.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ELD as Neutral (3) -

On first read, UBS highlights they are surprised by the rise of the costs which impacted on Elders 1H26 earnings before interest and tax and resulted in a miss of -6% to -8% versus expectations.

Management believes cost pressures will subside in the 2H26 but remains cautious on diesel prices and notes they remain a "key risk" factor.

Synergies of $8m are anticipated by the agri company in relation to Delta in FY26.

Overall the analyst is cautious on higher costs and would like more certainty around how management are going to address the dry conditions across the East coast. The strength in the livestock market is expected.

Neutral rated. Target $7.30.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $7.20 Difference: $0.1
If ELD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.38, suggesting upside of 51.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EOS as Speculative Buy (1) -

Electro Optic Systems is approaching practical completion of the MARSS Group acquisition, having paid the upfront consideration of US$36m.

Ord Minnett observes customers have expressed their satisfaction, as this coincides with the MARSS NiDAR system defeating multiple Shahed drone attacks recently in the Middle East conflict.

The current order book sits at $270m and on acquisition the company's combined unconditional order book will stand at $726m.

The broker increases FY26 and FY27 EBITDA forecast by 32% and 28%, respectively. Target rises to $14.00 from $12.95 and a Speculative Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $8.82 Difference: $5.18
If EOS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ILU as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Ord Minnett adjusts mineral sands estimates, building in higher diesel prices for the rest of the year.

Iluka Resources is moving, in terms of the investment case, to rare earths from mineral sands, with the latter described by Ord Minnett as a sector with few enthusiasts.

The broker also expects the company will be announcing offtake deals from mid-year to keep the rare earth news flow "active". There may be a risk that offtake prices disappoint so Ord Minnett is not "overly aggressive".

Rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold and the target lifted to $9 from $8. The broker expects the mineral sand net debt will stabilise this year and grow next year, but any capital raising is likely to be delayed into next year.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.90 Difference: $1.1
If ILU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.65, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MGR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes recent Federal Budget tax changes are designed to support new housing supply, which should benefit developers such as Stockland and Mirvac Group over time.

However, the broker believes near-term conditions remain challenging, with lower property prices, higher interest rates and tighter development margins likely to offset some of the policy tailwinds.

The target price for Mirvac Group falls by -5c to $2.05 on Morgan Stanley's revised development assumptions. Equal-weight rating unchanged. Industry View: In-Line.

The analysts highlight Mirvac and Stockland's residential pre-sales have typically been 65%-70% correlated to home prices.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.73 Difference: $0.325
If MGR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.99, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MLX as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett expects Metals X will book strong profit from Renison, given record tin prices in 2026. The broker upgrades its forecasts for tin prices given ongoing tightness, as a resumption of mine supply from Myanmar and Indonesia is slower than expected.

The company's "solid" balance sheet also improves prospects for volume growth via its Rentails project.

Ord Minnett points out, once regulatory approvals are provided for First Tin and Elementos, the company could initiate follow-on funding and capital investment that should move its share price. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $2.00 from $1.60.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: $0.46
If MLX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MYS as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett assesses the taxation changes for investment property in the federal budget are negative for the banking sector and while Mystate is less exposed than peers to investor loans by mix it has high lending exposure to housing.

While headwinds for housing loan growth may flow through to earnings in FY27-FY28, the company retains attractive income relative to the sector and the market, so the broker continues to rate the stock Buy with a $5.29 target.

The budget changes will specifically lower new investor loan demand from the current annual growth of 9.6% to 0-2% for FY27, the broker projects, estimating total housing credit growth for the banks will fall to 3%-4% from 5%-6%.

Target price is $5.29 Current Price is $4.51 Difference: $0.78
If MYS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORG as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

Ord Minnett views an increasing downside risk to earnings for Origin Energy as the electricity market transition evolves less favourably compared with prior expectations.

Battery capacity in the National Electricity Market is being deployed materially faster than required in the absence of corresponding coal-fired retirement.

The excess flexibility is suppressing price volatility and reducing the earnings potential for batteries and other flexible generation assets such as gas peakers and hydro.

As a result the broker downgrades to Lighten from Hold and reduces the target to $10.40 from $11.00. Earnings estimates are reduced by -21% for FY27 and -24% for FY28.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $11.49 Difference: minus $1.09 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.89, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates QAL as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Morgans raises its target for Qualitas by 90c to $3.50 and upgrades to Buy from Accumulate. This follows a third quarter update, changes to residential property investment rules in the Federal Budget and the sale of an additional stake in Metrics Credit.

The broker believes concerns around private credit remain overdone for higher-quality managers. It's noted Qualitas benefits from predominantly institutional capital, limited redemption risk and a loan book heavily weighted to senior residential debt.

Commentary also highlights strong growth in fee-earning funds under management and record deployment levels. Valuation support is seen as relatively attractive following recent transactions in comparable private credit managers.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.82 Difference: $0.68
If QAL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QBE as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes, as QBE Insurance streamlines its North American disclosure, the quarterly filings have begun to correlate with half-year financial statements.

Ahead of the company's trading update, the broker observes filings suggest North American gross written premium grew 8.5% in the first quarter with crop up 16.8%.

The crop business was the quickest in terms of growth for the company's four major US insurance licenses. The largest contraction in the quarter is observed to be Praetorian.

The broker continues to find value versus international peers and there is no change to the Outperform rating or $24.60 target. The first half results are due on August 14.

Target price is $24.60 Current Price is $23.04 Difference: $1.56
If QBE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.80, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates QPM as Downgrade to Speculative Hold from Speculative Buy (3) -

Bell Potter downgrades QPM Energy to Speculative Hold from Speculative Buy with a lower target of $0.03 from $0.06 post what was viewed as another "soft" quarterly update.

Gas supply for the March quarter came in at 2.2PJ versus the forecast of 2.4PJ with electricity dispatches falling short of expectations at 34.5GWh, versus estimate of 36.7GWh.

Average realised price was also lower than anticipated with sales in line. The analyst notes the Isaac Power station is moving towards a final investment decision.

Downward pricing pressure on electricity prices is expected to moderate as the market readjusts over time.

Target price is $0.03 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.006
If QPM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie takes a closer look at the proposed scrip merger between Regis Resources and Vault Minerals ((VAU)) and concludes the merged company could rival Evolution Mining ((EVN)) in terms of production, becoming the second-largest Australian gold producer with FY27 production of around 772,000 ounces.

While there are no operating synergies on offer other than synergies that include $500m in corporate tax benefits from the anticipated write-up of tax assets, a reduction in Australian corporate costs and lower future cost of capital.

The likelihood of a counter bid is considered low and there would be limited operating synergies for other Western Australia mid-cap gold companies. While there is potential for the divestment of non-core assets, Macquarie acknowledges these would be those that have limited mine life, limited exploration upside and low valuations.

Outperform with a $9.50 target.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $6.65 Difference: $2.85
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.81, suggesting upside of 37.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGP as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes recent Federal Budget tax changes are designed to support new housing supply, which should benefit developers such as Stockland and Mirvac Group over time.

However, the broker believes near-term conditions remain challenging, with lower property prices, higher interest rates and tighter development margins likely to offset some of the policy tailwinds.

Reviewing FY27 assumptions, Morgan Stanley suggests Stockland's residential settlements could decline year-on-year.

The target for Stockland is lowered to $4.90 from $5.05. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $3.97 Difference: $0.93
If SGP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.75, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SHA as Initiation of coverage with Accumulate (2) -

Morgans initiates coverage on Shape Australia with an Accumulate rating and $8.62 target. The company is seen as a higher-quality contractor supported by short-duration projects, repeat client relationships and a capital-light operating model.

Shape is a national fit-out and construction services contractor, with office fit-out and refurbishment historically forming the core of its earnings base, the analyst explains.

Morgans expects growth to come from expansion across adjacent sectors including data centres, retail, education and government-funded work, alongside upside from modular construction and maintenance capabilities.

The analyst explains modular construction moves a significant portion of the building process from the construction site into a controlled manufacturing environment.

Strong earnings growth is forecast, supported by a growing backlog, robust project pipeline and continued net cash generation.

Target price is $8.62 Current Price is $7.70 Difference: $0.92
If SHA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SLD as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter outlines Saluda Medical's closed loop spinal cord stimulator technology is emerging as a major disruptor in the US spinal core stimulator market, which is valued at around US$2.3bn.

The broker points to Medtronic's comments that closed loop technology is becoming foundational in neuromodulation, reinforces Saluda's competitive positioning despite Medtronic's recent market share gains.

The medtech company's quarterly US growth rates of 9%, 17% and 34% proved well above peers, while market share is forecast to rise from around 3% currently to 9% by FY29.

Additionally, Abbott and Boston Scientific may view Saluda as a potential acquisition target, as rivals lacking closed loop capability risk being left behind.

Buy (Speculative) rating unchanged with a $2.00 target.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $1.52
If SLD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 317% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SPG as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

SPC Global has announced a $100m underwritten capital raising at $0.10 a share with $75m dedicated to directly reducing the debt burden. Management has also reconfirmed FY26 guidance for normalised EBITDA of $38m.

Ord Minnett notes, while solving the debt issue, the extent of the capital raising brings into question some of its previous assumptions for cash flow and sales.

While the turnaround may have momentum, other issues include inventory, stability of the board, sales growth and product safety.

The broker has become more cautious and downgrades to Hold from Buy, lowering the target to $0.17 from $0.75 post the capital raising.

Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.055
If SPG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TNE as Buy (1) -

TechnologyOne is due to announce 1H26 result on Tuesday 19 and Bell Potter flags profit before tax growth to align with guidance provided in February of "high single digit percentage growth".

The analyst points out earnings forecast of 9% profit before tax growth to $89.4m sits above consensus. Annual recurring revenue is highlighted as a metric which could surprise. The current estimate for growth is 17% year on year to around $600m.

Scope for the release of Plus - TechnologyOne's agentic AI product - could boost the result as well as the product uptake by James Cook University, the broker explains.

No change to earnings forecasts. Target price is lifted to $32.25 from $31.75. Buy rating is unchanged.

Target price is $32.25 Current Price is $28.36 Difference: $3.89
If TNE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.03, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TPW as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes the key debate around Temple & Webster has centred on valuation, with the shares now trading near three-year lows following a sharp sell-off.

While softer trading conditions have led to material earnings downgrades, the broker highlights management's ability to flex costs and protect margins in a weaker environment.

It's believed the market's focus has shifted from long-term growth to short-term profitability, prompting the company's strategic pivot toward earnings and cash flow.

Despite cutting its target price by -67% to $8.00 from valuation de-rating and weaker forecasts, the broker retains an Overweight rating. It's argued the asset-light business model, growing market position and long-term growth opportunity remain intact. Industry View: In-line.

A summary of the broker's initial research on Temple & Webster follows.

Following a trading update for Temple & Webster, Morgan Stanley notes the FY26 outlook reflects weak consumer conditions.

Both revenue and earnings are tracking below consensus expectations and toward the lower end of guidance, the broker explains.

In better news, a shift toward profitability has driven record April earnings and improved operating leverage. This positions FY27 earnings materially ahead of expectations even in a low-growth environment, the analyst observes.

Valuation support is seen at around 12x FY27 EV/EBITDA, with scope for further upside from margin expansion and a potential return to growth.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $4.87 Difference: $3.13
If TPW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.84, suggesting upside of 64.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TUA as Buy (1) -

IMDA (Infocomm Media Development Authority), Singapore's communications and media regulator, has suspended the review of Simba-M1 merger pending an investigation into Simba's possible unauthorised use of radio frequency bands, Citi notes in a flash note.

Under the Singaporean Telecommunications Act 1999, the analyst highlights resulting actions could include financial penalties up to 10% of annual turnover to potential license cancellation or suspension.

Keppel has also announced a plan to move on from the sale of M1 to Tuas. Citi believes the share price will be under "significant pressure" today.

Buy. Target $9.95.

Target price is $9.95 Current Price is $6.10 Difference: $3.85
If TUA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes the new shareholder on the Treasury Wine Estates share registry could over time be positive for the company.

Olivier Goudet and his investment company own 9.04% of Treasury. He has also acquired global wine data platform Wine-Searcher through the Goudet family's investment vehicle.

The analyst points out Goudet was the former CFO at Mars and former CEO of JAB Holdings for 12 years, the investment vehicle of Germany's Reimann family.

Wine-Searcher is a major player in the wine data industry as a meta price aggregator. Citi notes it has the capability to influence price messaging globally on ecommerce platforms with scope to boost brands and enhance marketing/publicity.

The stock is rated Neutral with a $4.25 target. Citi views the downside risks have declined post the April update.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $4.25 Difference: $0
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.74, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VAU as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie takes a closer look at the proposed scrip merger between Vault Minerals ((VAU)) and Regis Resources ((RRL)) and concludes the merged company could rival Evolution Mining ((EVN)) in terms of production, becoming the second-largest Australian gold producer with FY27 production of around 772,000 ounces.

While there are no operating synergies on offer other than synergies include $500m in corporate tax benefits from the anticipated write-up of tax assets, a reduction in Australian corporate costs and lower future cost of capital.

The likelihood of a counter bid is considered low and there would be limited operating synergies for other Western Australia mid-cap gold companies. While there is potential for the divestment of non-core assets, Macquarie acknowledges these would be those that have limited mine life, limited exploration upside and low valuations.

Outperform rating and target price of $7.70.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $4.64 Difference: $3.06
If VAU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 66% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.33, suggesting upside of 66.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates VCX as Neutral (3) -

Vicinity Centres is acquiring Eastern Creek Quarter in Western Sydney for -$400m, with settlement expected by June 30, 2026. The asset comprises a mix of outlet, traditional and large-format retail, Citi explains.

The broker notes the transaction will be funded via existing debt facilities and an increase in gearing by around 200 basis points.

The analysts highlight Western Sydney's strong structural growth drivers, including population expansion, economic growth and infrastructure investment.

While near-term cost-of-living pressures remain a headwind, the acquisition is considered well positioned to benefit from favourable long-term retail demand trends.

Neutral. Target $2.70.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.51 Difference: $0.19
If VCX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VCX as Hold (3) -

Vicinity Centres has acquired a shopping centre at Eastern Creek in Sydney's west for $400m, implying 5.7% yield after costs with a capitalisation rate of 6%.

Ord Minnett highlights the ability to secure the asset at what appears to be a reasonable entry price, suspecting the sales process was competitive given the weight of capital currently targeting retail assets.

Main considerations on the downside are the absence of a trading history, which limits visibility on tenant performance, and the leasehold structure.

On the other hand, the investment case is anchored by a strategic location at the intersection of the M4 and M7 motorways.

Hold rating and $2.50 target maintained.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.51 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If VCX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie views Japanese energy producer Inpex Corp's agreement on May 15 to acquire PetroChina's 10.67% stake in the Browse joint venture as a positive development for Woodside Energy.

It's thought the transaction may remove a key barrier to project progress. The broker feels greater alignment between Japanese interests in Browse and the North West Shelf JV could improve the project's long-term viability.

This is particularly the case given Inpex's operational experience in Australia through Ichthys LNG and participation in Prelude and Darwin LNG, the analyst explains.

While significant hurdles remain around capital costs, carbon dioxide content and policy stability, Macquarie notes the Browse project is becoming increasingly important to Western Australia's long-term energy security.

Neutral. Target $33.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $31.25 Difference: $1.75
If WDS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.42, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates XRO as Buy (1) -

Putting it all together, including the latest product announcement by Anthropic (seen as a positive for Xero), Citi analysts reiterate their Buy rating and raise their price target by 1% to $113.60.

The broker suggests the shares look heavily undervalued when the core business is growing at 20%-plus per annum.

Target price is $113.60 Current Price is $79.67 Difference: $33.93
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $137.90, suggesting upside of 76.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources