Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AIA as Outperform (1) -

Auckland International Airport's April traffic update is consistent with Macquarie's FY26 expectations, with resilient passenger demand and rising load factors supporting management's earnings guidance.

The broker notes softer April passenger growth primarily reflects geopolitical disruption to Middle East routes and long-haul capacity constraints, rather than weakening underlying travel demand.

Commentary notes strong growth in higher-value inbound passengers from China and the US continues to support the earnings outlook. Improving utilisation and aeronautical pricing are also providing leverage to the recovery in international travel, the analyst explains.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and NZ$9.31 target price.

Current Price is $6.75. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BLX as Neutral (3) -

Citi downgrades the target price for Beacon Lighting by -39% to $1.68 from $2.75 with EPS estimates for FY26 lowered by -2% due to the rise in the cost of doing business.

The analyst also replaces the 30% premium valuation ascribed to the stock with a discount of -30% to reflect increasing pressures for the Australian housing sector post rate rises and the Budget.

EPS forecasts for FY27 and FY28 are lifted by 6% and 9%, respectively, for forex tailwinds and changes to D&A estimates.

No change to Neutral rating.

Target price is $1.68 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: $0.06
If BLX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.13, suggesting upside of 35.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BOE as Initiation of coverage with Accumulate (2) -

Morgans initiates coverage of Boss Energy with an Accumulate rating and $1.55 target. The business offers leverage to a continuing re-rating of the uranium market, although the investment case is considered "increasingly execution-driven".

Offsetting the withdrawal of the Honeymoon enhanced feasibility study, the broker points out the company has substantial uranium inventory and one of the strongest balance sheets in the sector.

Underpinning the thesis is two decades of suppressed prices have hollowed out supply, leaving the industry short of capital and spare capacity just as reactor demand begins to accelerate.

Forces are considered harder to reverse in this cycle, amid a structural supply deficit and geopolitical reshaping of nuclear fuel chains. China has 38 reactors under construction and the US is targeting 400GW by 2050.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.295
If BOE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.57, suggesting upside of 29.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BXB as Buy (1) -

Citi flags downside pressures on the Brambles' share price from the unexpected subcontractor problem and subsequent guidance downgrade.

A resolution within the timeframe as articulated by management could result in updates for the FY26 results and AGM into year end.

The analyst believes the anticipated Supply-plus (S+) announcement in early 2027 should offer some positive news and potentially a roadmap to the stock price's recovery.

Brambles digitalisation strategy is viewed as a core item in the investment case for the stock. Citi remains cautiously optimistic.

Buy rated with a lower target of $23.55 from $27.55.

Target price is $23.55 Current Price is $17.53 Difference: $6.02
If BXB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.73, suggesting upside of 44.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EIQ as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett assesses the commercialisation path for EchoIQ's EchoSolv platform has continued to strengthen with new agreements with Mayo and Mount Sinai.

The broker takes the opportunity to review the outlook in the US, anticipating a confluence of accelerating monetisation of the installed base as well as new logos and strategic partnerships to drive rapid revenue growth in FY27-FY29.

Long-term revenue and margin assumptions have been upgraded with the target lifted to $1.50 from $0.60. Speculative Buy.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.03 Difference: $0.47
If EIQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHX as Buy (1) -

James Hardie Industries announced 4Q26 earnings (EBITDA) of around US$381m which came in circa 2% above consensus, Citi notes, with free cash flow at US$314m well above guidance of US$200m.

North America met expectations and rest of the world was better than anticipated, having a positive impact on the group, the analyst explains. Weather impacted decking over the period which will create an inventory unwind situation going into 1Q27.

Sidings and trims sales missed with volumes down -12%. Earnings for A&NZ came in around 14% better than expected due to MSD volume growth and forex translation.

Europe was also slightly better than anticipated. Citi views the result as reasonable at first take.

Buy rating and $38 target.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $26.78 Difference: $11.22
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.14, suggesting upside of 47.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MEI as Speculative Buy (1) -

Meteoric Resources submitted its installation licence on March 9, which marks the transition to physical execution and, upon approval, allows the business to commence site development and construction activity. The FID is anticipated in mid-2026.

The company is in a "competitive race" in Brazil, the broker points out, as, along with Viridis Mining ((VMM)), it is moving towards FID for ionic adsorption clay projects.

The broker suspects Meteoric may need to raise US$190m in equity. It holds the larger rare earth resource footprint while Viridis has the higher-margin play.

Speculative Buy rating and $0.25 target retained.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.07
If MEI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.32, suggesting upside of 86.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NHC as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter views New Hope's third quarter result positively, with production and sales exceeding expectations and operations tracking toward the upper end of FY26 guidance.

Improved mining conditions at Bengalla supported lower unit costs, the analysts highlight. Stronger benchmark coal prices offset the impact of a firmer Australian dollar and a higher proportion of lower-quality coal sales at New Acland, the broker explains.

Commentary also highlights New Hope's successful $300m refinancing of senior unsecured convertible notes and suggests diesel supply concerns are manageable in the near term despite Middle East tensions.

Bell Potter retains a Hold rating and raises its target price to $5.00 from $4.50 following updated coal price and currency assumptions.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.51 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.54, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NXG as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Morgans initiates coverage of NexGen Energy with a Buy rating and $20.80 target. The company offers one of the most leveraged exposures to the uranium cycle through Rook 1, now entering its construction phase and with first production targeted for 2031.

The broker notes the project is at the bottom quartile of the global cost curve, in Canada's Saskatchewan, considered the world's premier uranium jurisdiction.

Underpinning the thesis is two decades of suppressed prices have hollowed out supply, leaving the industry short of capital and spare capacity just as reactor demand begins to accelerate.

Forces are considered harder to reverse in this cycle, amid a structural supply deficit and geopolitical reshaping of nuclear fuel chains. China has 38 reactors under construction and the US is targeting 400GW by 2050.

Target price is $20.80 Current Price is $15.52 Difference: $5.28
If NXG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.37, suggesting upside of 36.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PDN as Reinstate Coverage with Buy (1) -

Morgans is reinstating coverage on Paladin Energy with a Buy rating and $13.05 target.

The broker points out two decades of suppressed prices have hollowed out supply, leaving the industry short of capital and spare capacity just as reactor demand begins to accelerate.

Forces are considered harder to reverse in this cycle, amid a structural supply deficit and geopolitical reshaping of nuclear fuel chains. China has 38 reactors under construction and the US is targeting 400GW by 2050.

Paladin offers both near-term production and a world-class development asset, Morgans asserts, with Langer Heinrich ramping towards nameplate of 6mlb per annum.

Target price is $13.05 Current Price is $10.63 Difference: $2.42
If PDN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.19, suggesting upside of 30.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RHC as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley reviews same-date episodes across the Australian private hospital system, analysing 30 key procedures which highlight the fact overnight hospitals receive higher benefits per episode relative to day hospitals.

The broker suggests the transfer of same-day episodes to day from overnight has the potential to reduce benefits paid by private health insurers.

Retention of a portion of these savings could help to moderate premium increases and reconfigure under-utilised capacity to better meet demand.

The Underweight rating for Ramsay Health Care considers the impact of premium increases ahead of wage inflation, and the potential for further wage inflation.

The broker believes its analysis highlights the scope for system savings that could address these risks. Target is $32.90. In-Line industry view.

Target price is $32.90 Current Price is $38.15 Difference: minus $5.25 (current price is over target).
If RHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $39.86, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RMD as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes the phase 3 trial results for AD109, a once-daily oral pill for treating OSA (obstructive sleep apnoea), met its primary endpoint.

On balance, the broker finds the product potentially relevant to mild-to-moderate OSA patients who are unable to tolerate or refuse CPAP.

Product producer Apnimed is targeting a US FDA action date in the first quarter of FY27, subject to acceptance of the new drug application for review.

Overweight rating and US$286 target retained for ResMed. Industry View: In-Line.

Current Price is $28.75. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $44.41, suggesting upside of 51.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SKO as Buy (1) -

Post conference call with Serko management, Citi analysts' key takeaways are that Serko is seeing limited impact from the Middle East and overall macro, with B4B activity levels picking back up in 2H26 and 1H27 to date.

Earlier today the broker responded as follows:

Serko announced an underlying net profit after tax loss of -NZ$11.3m which was greater than forecast and missed Citi's expectations of a loss of -NZ$9.5m.

Earnings (EBITDA) of NZ$6.5m also came in lower than the analyst's and consensus forecasts with revenue in line. Higher opex and a lower capitalisation ratio weighed on earnings (EBITDA).

Revenue guidance for FY27 also missed consensus expectations at the midpoint by -1% but was 2% above the broker's forecast.

Serko.ai closed beta was launched and is on track for launch later in 2026. On the negative side, completed room-nights were better but room nights per active customer fell -5% y/y. Total spend guidance was also higher than expected for FY27.

Buy. Target $2.85.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $1.65
If SKO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 138% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.92, suggesting upside of 226.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TNE as Buy (1) -

TechnologyOne's first half result was broadly in line with market expectations, Bell Potter notes, with stronger-than-expected margins offsetting slightly weaker revenue and annual recurring revenue (ARR).

Foreign exchange movements negatively impacted reported growth, while underlying recurring revenue trends and margins remain robust, the analysts explain.

Management reiterates FY26 guidance for 18%-20% profit growth and 16%-18% ARR growth, targeting the upper end of both ranges.

Bell Potter makes only minor forecast adjustments and continues to expect 20% profit growth across FY26-FY28. Unchanged $32.25 target and Buy rating.

The broker highlights TechnologyOne's strong recurring revenue base and favourable positioning should benefit from AI adoption rather than suffer from disruption.

Target price is $32.25 Current Price is $27.80 Difference: $4.45
If TNE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.46, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TNE as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie views TechnologyOne's first half result as operationally strong, with constant-currency profit performance and cost control exceeding expectations despite showcase-related headwinds.

The broker believes delivery towards the top end of FY26 guidance is supported by a large implementation pipeline, AI-related product momentum and the company's long track record of execution.

Increasing customer adoption of AI-enabled modules through the Plus platform is seen as a key growth driver. It's noted annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth continues to come from existing customers.

Although slower new customer growth in the UK remains a weakness, the analyst expects AI monetisation and recurring revenue growth to support TechnologyOne's premium valuation.

Macquarie reiterates an Outperform rating and raises its target price to $30.50 from $29.00.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $27.80 Difference: $2.7
If TNE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.46, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TNE as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes customer gains across local government and education have provided evidence that software-as-a-service-plus is strengthening TechnologyOne's competitive position, underpinning larger and longer duration contracts.

First half results were largely in line with expectations, despite a miss in the UK driven by FX. The company has reiterated upgraded FY26 expectations.

Local government revenue grew 27% in the half while education grew 15%. The stand-out identified was the new 10-year agreement with City of Townsville at a higher contract value.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating and $32 target. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $27.80 Difference: $4.2
If TNE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.46, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TNE as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

First half results from TechnologyOne were largely in line with expectations, and Morgans believes the business enters the strong half well-positioned to achieve the upper end of its FY26 guidance. Annual recurring revenue of $598m was up 17%.

Churn was low, with management signalling no material customer losses. FY26 targeted revenue growth is 16%-18% and pre-tax profit growth 18%-20%.

Morgans upgrades to Accumulate from Hold and raises the target to $32.30 from $31.20, noting the company has consistently delivered market-leading revenue and revenue retention rates.

Target price is $32.30 Current Price is $27.80 Difference: $4.5
If TNE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.46, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TPW as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes Temple & Webster's updated guidance reflects a weaker consumer demand backdrop, prompting management to shift focus towards profit optimisation over near-term growth.

While FY26 revenue guidance disappointed relative to market expectations, the broker notes margin improvement initiatives implemented since March appear to be driving stronger margins.

Subdued sales growth is expected through FY27 yet it's felt the company can still achieve materially higher earnings through improved operating efficiency.

The broker's target price is slashed to $7.00 from $13.00 following valuation multiple compression. A Buy rating is maintained due to strong market position, scalable platform and balance sheet strength.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $4.95 Difference: $2.05
If TPW meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.84, suggesting upside of 44.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VMM as Speculative Buy (1) -

Viridis Mining and Minerals has submitted its installation licence, which marks the transition to physical execution and, upon approval, allows the business to commence site development and construction activity. The FID is anticipated in the December half.

The company is in a "competitive race" in Brazil, the broker points out, as, along with Meteoric Resources ((MEI)), it is moving towards FID for ionic adsorption clay projects.

The broker suspects Viridis may need to raise US$180m in equity. It has the higher-margin play while Meteoric has the larger resource footprint.

Speculative Buy rating and $3.60 target retained.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.77 Difference: $0.83
If VMM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WES as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has looked at the modelling and outlook for Wesfarmers, concluding the conglomerate is better positioned to ride out a challenging environment than other pure consumer-facing businesses.

Wesfarmers has exposure to commodity prices as well as a resurgent lithium price and the broker raises forecasts for EBIT growth in FY27 for the chemicals, energy and fertiliser division.

The retail businesses, such as Bunnings and Kmart, also have an established value proposition which should leave them comparatively better placed than other consumer-exposed companies.

Group FY27 EBIT growth of 15% is forecast. Hold rating and $70 target retained.

Target price is $70.00 Current Price is $72.98 Difference: minus $2.98 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $77.26, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources