Australian Broker Call

Citi rates ALL as Buy (1) -

US gross gaming revenue growth strengthened in April despite signs of a weakening consumer, Citi notes.

Latest Eilers & Krejcik North American gaming data highlighted broadly steady performance for key titles from Aristocrat Leisure and Light & Wonder, with the broker encouraged by the breadth of recently released content.

Citi retains Buy ratings on both companies, citing solid operating trends and favourable valuations, though sentiment may remain impacted by AI concerns and fuel prices.

The target for Aristocrat Leisure remains at $61.00.

Target price is $61.00 Current Price is $49.92 Difference: $11.08
If ALL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $63.33, suggesting upside of 25.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Buy (1) -

Given the range of negative factors facing the Australian banks and broader economy this year, Citi notes it is unsurprising National Australia Bank has underperformed peers.

The broker highlights NAB's business banking skew leaves it more exposed to slowing credit growth and rising credit risk, while Federal Budget impacts have broadened uncertainty across the housing market.

Citi's regression analysis suggests bank share prices remain heavily driven by macro factors, particularly for CommBank, leaving downside housing risk relevant across the sector.

Buy-rated ANZ Bank and Westpac (Neutral) are the broker's preferred exposures among the big four.

The target for ANZ Bank remains at $40.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $35.50 Difference: $4.5
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.18, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley adopts a cautious view on the Australian banks, arguing changes to property-related tax concessions could materially slow demand for investment properties and mortgage growth.

Investor lending has driven the recent acceleration in housing loan growth, the broker explains, with investment property loans rising to around 10% growth from 6% previously.

Morgan Stanley forecasts system mortgage growth moderates to around 5.5% in FY27. A sharper slowdown to 3%-4% is considered possible if house prices fall -5%-10% and investment property loan growth stalls.

The broker also warns of mortgage margin headwinds from weaker growth and increased competition, estimating FY27 earnings downgrade risk of around -5% for the major banks.

CommBank and Westpac are viewed as having the greatest exposure to Australian mortgages, with Westpac's share price seen as more vulnerable near term to housing market weakness.

Target is $36.20 for ANZ Bank. Overweight rating. Industry view: Cautious.

In a separate report, Morgan Stanley notes rising rates, changes to fiscal policy, and the direct and indirect effects of the global energy shock all point to downside risks to economic growth in Australia.

Here, Westpac and NAB are seen as most vulnerable given fundamentals and investor positioning.

Target price is $36.20 Current Price is $35.50 Difference: $0.7
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.18, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates APZ as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Citi initiates coverage on Aspen Group with a Buy rating and $5.40 target. The view is underpinned by the company's strategic position in Australia's "affordable housing crisis" amid structural tailwinds in the land lease sector.

The broker assesses the integrated owner-operator-developer model allows for cost-effective development and rental offerings. This should appeal to a broad demographic facing housing shortages.

The main risks include rising interest rates and construction costs, although a disciplined capital management focus should mitigate concerns.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.72 Difference: $0.68
If APZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BMN as Outperform (1) -

Bannerman Energy and Deep Yellow ((DYL)) remain the preferred developer exposure for Macquarie with Etango moving to its final investment decision.

The Chair of Bannerman presented to the Macquarie Asia Conference detailing his view that U308 prices could move upwards of around US$120/lb to boost more greenfield developments versus the TradeTech Long-term price indicator of US$93/lb.

The broker is forecasting a US$95/lb long-term price but sees share price volatility as the major issue for developers currently.

The partnership with CNNC is believed to considerably lower Bannerman's funding needs.

Outperform retained with a $5.55 target price. EPS forecasts are tweaked up by 1.4% for FY26 and 1% for FY27.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $3.64 Difference: $1.91
If BMN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOE as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Macquarie upgrades Boss Energy to Neutral from Underperform despite the ongoing resource concerns around Honeymoon and the feasibility study. The risks are now more discounted at the current share price.

Honeymoon appears for now to be a considerably smaller and more "marginal" asset the analyst explains, compared to what the previous management believed.

EPS forecasts are tweaked up by 1.1% for FY26 and 1% for FY27 with an unchanged target price of $1.30.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: $0.04
If BOE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.57, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CAT as Buy (1) -

Catapult Sports posted a FY26 result that augurs well for the medium-term targets, Morgans observes, with management EBITDA of US$25m beating estimates. Operating leverage is now evident to the broker, amid a 41% incremental margin.

The company closed the year with US$53.5m in cash on the balance sheet and no debt. The statutory loss of -US$24m has widened, with the deterioration largely non-cash and acquisition-related.

The broker makes some adjustments to medium-term estimates which results in -6%-8% downgrades to management EBITDA over FY27-FY29. Target is lowered to $5.40 from $5.55 while a Buy rating is retained.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $1.83
If CAT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.13, suggesting upside of 53.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Given the range of negative factors facing the Australian banks and broader economy this year, Citi notes it is unsurprising National Australia Bank has underperformed peers.

The broker highlights NAB's business banking skew leaves it more exposed to slowing credit growth and rising credit risk, while Federal Budget impacts have broadened uncertainty across the housing market.

Citi's regression analysis suggests bank share prices remain heavily driven by macro factors, particularly for CommBank, leaving downside housing risk relevant across the sector.

The analysts reiterate their Sell rating for CommBank given downside risk to the housing market which has empirically driven the stock over time. Unchanged $140 target.

Buy-rated ANZ Bank and Westpac (Neutral) are the broker's preferred exposures among the big four.

Target price is $140.00 Current Price is $165.67 Difference: minus $25.67 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $125.57, suggesting downside of -23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley adopts a cautious view on the Australian banks, arguing changes to property-related tax concessions could materially slow demand for investment properties and mortgage growth.

Investor lending has driven the recent acceleration in housing loan growth, the broker explains, with investment property loans rising to around 10% growth from 6% previously.

Morgan Stanley forecasts system mortgage growth moderates to around 5.5% in FY27. A sharper slowdown to 3%-4% is considered possible if house prices fall -5%-10% and investment property loan growth stalls.

The broker also warns of mortgage margin headwinds from weaker growth and increased competition, estimating FY27 earnings downgrade risk of around -5% for the major banks.

CommBank and Westpac are viewed as having the greatest exposure to Australian mortgages, with Westpac's share price seen as more vulnerable near term to housing market weakness.

Target for CommBank is $130. Underweight rating. Industry view: Cautious.

In a separate report, Morgan Stanley notes rising rates, changes to fiscal policy, and the direct and indirect effects of the global energy shock all point to downside risks to economic growth in Australia.

Here, Westpac and NAB are seen as most vulnerable given fundamentals and investor positioning.

Target price is $130.00 Current Price is $165.67 Difference: minus $35.67 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $125.57, suggesting downside of -23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CHC as Buy (1) -

Charter Hall has issued its third earnings upgrade since August 2025, Citi observes, with FY26 EPS now expected at 103c per security, which translates to 26.5% growth. This is now 14.5% ahead of initial guidance of 90c issued in August.

The broker remains confident in the stock and expects it to trade well, anticipating positive revisions to consensus estimates given the company is typically conservative in issuing initial guidance. FY26 distribution guidance remains for 6% growth in FY26.

Buy rating and $23 target maintained.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $19.33 Difference: $3.67
If CHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.56, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CHC as Buy (1) -

UBS observes a strong trading update from Charter Hall with EPS guidance for FY26 lifted for the third time this fiscal year to 103c per share from 100c per share previously. At the upgraded level, EPS is expected to grow 26.5% y/y.

Property FUM is $74.7bn year-to-date, a rise of 12% on June 2025 and up 4.2% from December. Gross equity flows are moving at a record high of $6.5bn year-to-date, up 22% from the previous peak of $5.3bn in FY21.

The broker also points to 25 new institutional investors being added to the platform in the last 18 months.

The broker highlights capital raising has retained its momentum against a more challenging macro backdrop.

Buy rating and $24.50 target are retained.

Target price is $24.50 Current Price is $19.33 Difference: $5.17
If CHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.56, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CUV as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter highlights the first vitiligo phase 3 trial read-out is keenly awaited from Clinuvel, expected in the second half of 2026.

In the event of a positive read the broker anticipates a second phase 3 will be required and therefore approval and subsequent sales would commence from 2030, and in conclusion estimates roughly 50-50 chance of primary endpoint success.

Bell Potter assesses there is little credit attributed for the vitiligo opportunity and a positive read-out would mean a dramatic surge in valuation as investors de-risk the path to success. Speculative Buy rating retained. Target reduced to $17 from $19.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $9.10 Difference: $7.9
If CUV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 87% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DYL as Outperform (1) -

Bannerman Energy ((BMN)) and Deep Yellow remain the preferred developer exposure for Macquarie with Etango moving to its final investment decision.

The analyst notes development works at Tumas project have been completed and the developer is starting the civil works phase which could be around 10-12 months.

With a robust cash position, management is viewed as having some movement around the final investment decision.

The stock retains an Outperform rating and $2.25 target. EPS forecasts are tweaked slightly lower on changes to the share count and inflation assumptions.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: $0.63
If DYL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.22, suggesting upside of 31.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EGL as Buy (1) -

Environmental Group now expects FY26 normalised EBITDA in the range of $8.5–9.0m, compared with prior guidance of 15–20% growth which translated to $12.7–13.5m.

A -$2.5m estimated EBITDA impact is expected in the energy division amid operating issues, clean-up of historical jobs and higher fleet diesel costs. Baltec is expected to experience a -$1.5m impact from delayed deliveries, disruption to logistics and slower Middle East tender awards.

The company remains confident it has identified and addressed its ERP issues and asserts it is still experiencing strong demand and revenue growth. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $0.21 from $0.35.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.07
If EGL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EOL as Buy (1) -

Energy One's management downgraded FY26 ARR to 13% versus the previous guidance range of 15%-20% which Ord Minnett notes was due to two large deals being delayed.

The analyst views most of the May update was positive with the delay in the deals closing arising from increased scope which is not a negative for the company.

Energy markets are continuing to become more volatile and complex which is expected to boost demand for Energy One's software, while the sales pipeline continues to advance the broker explains.

The stock price reaction is considered overdone. Target price is lowered by -10% to $18.51 from $20.56 with no change in Buy rating.

Target price is $18.51 Current Price is $12.25 Difference: $6.26
If EOL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EQT as Reinstates coverage with Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett continues to be positive on EQT Holdings as the company is anticipated to be a beneficiary of long-term demographic trends in the retail trustee market.

The broker reinstates coverage of the stock with an Accumulate rating and a $17.75 target price.

Regarding the potential exposure to ASIC penalties around Shield and First Guardians, the analyst estimates the exposure for EQT could be around -$189m if it is liable for both losses. A more bearish case is around -$269m exposure.

Management has started a strategic review of its superannuation business. The Corporate Trustee business remains the largest and is considered a constant earnings growth generator with the tailwinds from the 65yr-plus and 85yr-plus age groups.

Target price is $17.75 Current Price is $16.23 Difference: $1.52
If EQT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FBU as Neutral (3) -

Citi updates its forecasts for Fletcher Building following completion of the Construction divestment, incorporating more than NZ$300m in FY26 cash inflows.

Underlying expectations have been lowered to reflect a softer backdrop, though land sale gains offset the impact, leaving the analyst's FY26 earnings (EBIT) estimate broadly unchanged.

Softer conditions are expected to persist through 1H27, with margins pressured by inflation.

Neutral rating and target falls to NZ$3.40 from NZ$3.70.

Current Price is $2.51. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.76, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GLF as Initiation of coverage with Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage on Gemlife Communities with an Accumulate rating and $5.30 target price.

The broker sees the business model as very "attractive" in the land-lease communities sector with management targeting the fast growing over 50's demographic.

The analyst forecasts 2026 settlements of 424 lots rising 17% to 495 lots in 2027 and 551 lots, up 11% in 2028. The margin on home building on the sale price to new residents was 51.3% in 2H2025.

Some impact from inflationary pressures is expected on the home building margin.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.68 Difference: $0.62
If GLF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.54, suggesting upside of 19.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GYG as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Guzman y Gomez is upgraded to Buy from Hold, having announced it has ceased trading in the US amid a failure to meet financial targets, and Bell Potter calculates higher cash flow assumptions have increased its valuation.

The broker notes, although the third quarter results showed comparable sales momentum, geopolitical events have significantly affected consumers and exacerbated the losses expected in the US.

The company will instead concentrate on its core Australian market. Bell Potter removes US network sales forecasts from the first half of FY27 and underlying EBITDA expectations increase 2% for FY26 and 11% for FY27. Target is raised to $24.50 from $22.10.

Target price is $24.50 Current Price is $19.81 Difference: $4.69
If GYG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.41, suggesting upside of 27.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GYG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes Guzman y Gomez's decision to leave the US market after six years is "prudent" and reflects well on management's discipline.

The exit will free up higher investment capacity the analyst highlights for operations and underwrite more opportunities over the longer term. The US operations were expected to lose -US$13m in FY27 according to consensus forecasts and losses were expected out to FY35.

The analyst continues to like Guzman y Gomez over the longer term while acknowledging near term headwinds from a challenging macro backdrop.

Target price slips by -5% for changes to the Australian earnings forecasts and a rise of 10bps in the risk-free rate to 4.8% to $25.20.

EPS estimates rise by 35% for FY27 and 17% for FY28. Outperform retained.

Target price is $25.20 Current Price is $19.81 Difference: $5.39
If GYG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.41, suggesting upside of 27.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GYG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley views Guzman y Gomez's exit from the US market as a net positive, removing a key investor overhang and allowing management to focus capital and attention on domestic growth.

The broker expects a positive share price reaction given widening US losses and highlights improved credibility around management's capital allocation strategy.

The analysts' FY27 EPS forecast is raised by 28%, largely reflecting the removal of US losses from FY27. Morgan Stanley notes FY26 underlying EBITDA guidance of $85m was broadly in line with consensus.

Morgan Stanley reiterates an Overweight rating and raises its target to $27.20 from $26.30. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $27.20 Current Price is $19.81 Difference: $7.39
If GYG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.41, suggesting upside of 27.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GYG as Buy (1) -

Guzman y Gomez has announced the immediate exit of its US operations, which Morgans considers a positive move, given the US was expected to generate a significant underlying EBITDA loss in FY26 and required materially more capital.

The company expects to book a one-off impact of -US$30m-US$40m below the line with the cash component not exceeding -US$15m. The broker considers this manageable relative to the strong balance sheet and it should not impair the capacity to fund the Australian network expansion.

The business is considered well-placed to deliver material earnings growth over a number of years and Morgans retains a Buy rating with the target raised to $29.40 from $26.70.

Target price is $29.40 Current Price is $19.81 Difference: $9.59
If GYG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.41, suggesting upside of 27.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GYG as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett views Guzman y Gomez's decision to exit the US market as the correct strategic move, citing intense competition, lack of scale and weak customer recognition in Chicago.

Closure costs will be around -$21m, materially below the analyst's prior -$50m forecast.

While no additional guidance was provided for Australia, divisional earnings guidance implies to the broker second-half FY26 earnings growth of 28%. This is considered a strong outcome given consumer pressures from inflation and interest rates.

Ord Minnett EPS forecasts are raised by 3%, 51% and 29% for FY26-FY28, respectively, reflecting the removal of US losses.

Buy rating but the broker lowers its target to $31.00 from $32.00 following removal of the US business valuation from its financial model.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $19.81 Difference: $11.19
If GYG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.41, suggesting upside of 27.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GYG as Buy (1) -

UBS highlights Guzman y Gomez exiting from the US market will incur one-off cost of -US$30m-US$40m with cash costs not expected to be more than -US$15m.

Management had noted US losses were now expected to exceed the 1H26 in the 2H26 compared to previous guidance that losses would decline over the second half.

Earnings (EBITDA) guidance for FY26 of $85m is in line with consensus and slightly below the broker's forecast with margins indicated at the upper end of guidance, 6%-6.2%.

The target price is raised to $24 from $22 with EPS forecast for FY26 lowered by -18% due to the US exit costs and FY27 forecast is raised by 47%. A Buy rating is retained.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $19.81 Difference: $4.19
If GYG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.41, suggesting upside of 27.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IGO as Buy (1) -

Post recent visits to WA as well as the most recent trip to China, UBS still anticipates a "tight" supply market for lithium through to 2030 despite refining supply and adding up to 150ktpa in the near term.

China looks to be showing much stronger LCE annual demand growth in 2026, up 25% (plus or minus 5%) against the broker's forecast of 16%.

UBS now expects spodumene prices to trade at US$3,875/t over the balance of 2026 versus spot of US$2,655/t.

IGO Ltd remains Buy rated with an unchanged target of $9.75. There are no changes to production or cost forecasts post the March guidance downgrade from management.

Current Price is $9.21. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $8.66, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IPG as Buy (1) -

IPD Group has provided FY26 EBITDA guidance of $54.5-55.3m with growth at the mid point being 18%. Excluding earnings from the recently acquired Platinum Cables business, underlying EBIT is estimated in a range of $42.7-43.5m, up 19%.

Bell Potter notes data centre revenue is robust in the second half with strong growth also noted across the core business.

Gross margins in the second half are expected to be in line with the first half at around 33.3%, reflecting increased delivery of more complex and competitively-priced orders.

The broker retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $6.20 from $5.30.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $5.32 Difference: $0.88
If IPG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ITS as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter downgrades underlying EBITDA forecast for FY26 for Infotrust after it updated the market. Updated guidance for second half underlying EBITDA is $2.3m compared with "more than $3m" previously.

The company has also, a surprise to the broker, changed its CEO to Paul Timmins having undergone a significant turnaround and entered a new stage as a cyber-first technology business.

Bell Potter assesses the profitability focus is likely to be no different and retains a Buy rating. Target is reduced to $0.58 from $0.62.

Target price is $0.58 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.145
If ITS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LIC as Neutral (3) -

Privately-owned Hometown Australia has increased its stake in Lifestyle Communities to around 13.2% from 9.8%, with shares acquired throughout May.

Citi sees potential for a positive share price reaction and expects investor sentiment to remain skewed toward takeover potential.

Commentary notes Lifestyle Communities trades at a significant discount to book value relative to land lease peers.

Citi retains a Neutral rating and raises its target to $5.40 from $5.10.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.88 Difference: $0.52
If LIC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.60, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LNW as Buy (1) -

US gross gaming revenue growth strengthened in April despite signs of a weakening consumer, Citi notes.

Latest Eilers & Krejcik North American gaming data highlighted broadly steady performance for key titles from Aristocrat Leisure and Light & Wonder, with the broker encouraged by the breadth of recently released content.

Citi retains Buy ratings on both companies, citing solid operating trends and favourable valuations, though sentiment may remain impacted by AI concerns and fuel prices.

The target for Light & Wonder remains at $149.

Target price is $149.00 Current Price is $114.80 Difference: $34.2
If LNW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $188.00, suggesting upside of 61.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LOT as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie lowers its target price on Lotus Resources to $1.30 from $1.90.

The analyst assumes a higher assumed equity dilution factor of -$0.80 per share against -$0.20 per share previously, around the expectations more equity capital will likely need to be raised at a lower share price and deeper discount.

Such a scenario could arise if Lotus encounters delays in export approvals from the Namibian and transit governments and/or prepayment inventory finance, the broker explains.

No change to EPS estimates.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: $0.625
If LOT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 93% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.00, suggesting upside of 174.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LTR as Buy (1) -

Post recent visits to WA as well as the most recent trip to China, UBS still anticipates a "tight" supply market for lithium through to 2030 despite refining supply and adding up to 150ktpa in the near term.

China looks to be showing much stronger LCE annual demand growth in 2026, up 25% (plus or minus 5%) against the broker's forecast of 16%.

UBS now expects spodumene prices to trade at US$3,875/t over the balance of 2026 versus spot of US$2,655/t.

The analyst has adopted a more conservative view of Kathleen Valley's ramp up which lowers the target to $2.70 from $2.90.

No change in Buy rating.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.32 Difference: $0.38
If LTR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.20, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MIN as Buy (1) -

UBS came back from a site visit to Wodgina more positive even against a backdrop of a period in which the lithium commodity is increasingly preferred.

The analyst includes Bald Hill, Mt Marion and Wodgina production upgrades which results in EPS forecasts rises of 47% for FY27 and 39% for FY28.

A final investment decision for Mt Marion's flotation circuit and underground development is expected in 1Q27 and Bald Hill restart is expected to ramp up late May.

Target price is raised to $83 from $73 with a Buy rating retained.

Target price is $83.00 Current Price is $69.66 Difference: $13.34
If MIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $73.20, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MP1 as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights Megaport's Latitude.sh has already begun deploying GPUs for one of the major contracts announced last week, suggesting implementation is progressing faster than expected.

While management had assumed ramp-up from September and full run-rate from December, the broker now sees potential for an earlier earnings contribution.

Citi estimates each month of accelerated deployment could add around $4m in earnings (EBITDA), assuming the large contract represents 60%-70% of annual recurring revenue (ARR).

Buy rated with $15 target.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $13.05 Difference: $1.95
If MP1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.41, suggesting upside of 21.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MXI as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett observes trading slowed for MaxiPARTS in the March period due to higher fuel costs in the transport sector and delays in services. The broker notes the market conditions have since stabilised.

Revenue growth for 2H26 is now expected to be lower than previously anticipated but it is expected to be offset from growth in the Forch Australia business.

Scope for slower conditions has prompted the broker to lower earnings forecasts for FY27-FY28 by -2% to -5%. Nevertheless, the trading update was relatively strong and the business is viewed as well positioned for growth.

Buy rating maintained with a lower target of $2.80 from $2.85.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $1.3
If MXI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 87% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Given the range of negative factors facing the Australian banks and broader economy this year, Citi notes it is unsurprising National Australia Bank has underperformed peers.

The broker highlights NAB's business banking skew leaves it more exposed to slowing credit growth and rising credit risk, while Federal Budget impacts have broadened uncertainty across the housing market.

Citi's regression analysis suggests bank share prices remain heavily driven by macro factors, particularly for CommBank, leaving downside housing risk relevant across the sector.

Citi upgrades its rating for National Australia Bank to Neutral from Sell following recent share price weakness. Target $37.40.

Buy-rated ANZ Bank and Westpac (Neutral) are the broker's preferred exposures among the big four.

Target price is $37.40 Current Price is $37.85 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $39.45, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley adopts a cautious view on the Australian banks, arguing changes to property-related tax concessions could materially slow demand for investment properties and mortgage growth.

Investor lending has driven the recent acceleration in housing loan growth, the broker explains, with investment property loans rising to around 10% growth from 6% previously.

Morgan Stanley forecasts system mortgage growth moderates to around 5.5% in FY27. A sharper slowdown to 3%-4% is considered possible if house prices fall -5% to -10% and investment property loan growth stalls.

The broker also warns of mortgage margin headwinds from weaker growth and increased competition, estimating FY27 earnings downgrade risk of around -5% for the major banks.

CommBank and Westpac are viewed as having the greatest exposure to Australian mortgages, with Westpac's share price seen as more vulnerable near term to housing market weakness.

Target for National Australia Bank is $37.20. Underweight rating. Industry view: Cautious.

In a separate report, Morgan Stanley notes rising rates, changes to fiscal policy, and the direct and indirect effects of the global energy shock all point to downside risks to economic growth in Australia.

Here, Westpac and NAB are seen as most vulnerable given fundamentals and investor positioning.

Target price is $37.20 Current Price is $37.85 Difference: minus $0.65 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $39.45, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OCA as Outperform (1) -

According to Macquarie, Oceania Healthcare delivered a strong beat due to higher sales volumes over 2H26 with new sales up 9% y/y and resales up 40%.

Margins were noted for coming under some slight pressure to boost the sales momentum while applications are up on the prior year and months.

Positively, net debt fell -17% on the prior half and gearing is at 30%. The analyst notes free cash remains negative but should be assisted by working capital release in FY27–FY28.

Target price moves to NZ$1.06 from NZ$1.04 with EPS forecasts tweaked lower by -1.5% for FY26 and down -6.1% for FY27.

Current Price is $0.52. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PDN as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie upgrades Paladin Energy to Outperform from Neutral. The analyst views the underperformance of the shares by -13% against NexGen Energy ((NXG)) and Cameco by -15% in the last five weeks or so as seeming overdone.

The shares currently imply around a US$77/lb U308 price against the spot price of US$84.50/lb, while acknowledging there is possibly some downside risks to FY27 consensus production forecasts relative to guidance.

Paladin is the preferred exposure for the broker amidst producers. The company is considered as a great way to leverage the uranium cycle/AI megatrend. Patterson Lake South is also uncontracted for better exposure to higher U308 prices.

Target unchanged at $13.25. EPS forecast for FY26 declines by -32.6% on higher costs and FY27 forecast is lifted by 3.2%.

Target price is $13.25 Current Price is $11.07 Difference: $2.18
If PDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.19, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PMT as Buy (1) -

Post recent visits to WA as well as the most recent trip to China, UBS still anticipates a "tight" supply market for lithium through to 2030 despite refining supply and adding up to 150ktpa in the near term.

China looks to be showing much stronger LCE annual demand growth in 2026, up 25% (plus or minus 5%) against the broker's forecast of 16%.

UBS now expects spodumene prices to trade at US$3,875/t over the balance of 2026 versus spot of US$2,655/t.

Post PMET Resources receiving non-binding letters of government-backed credit agencies, the analyst reworks the financing forecasts and includes a new lithium price of US$1,400/t SC6 CFR China.

Target price rises to 90c from 80c with a Buy rating retained.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: $0.22
If PMT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QBE as Buy (1) -

UBS highlights Lloyd's 2Q26 market update included "strong warnings that the market is softening more rapidly than expected".

The re-insurer has stated syndicates must place margin protection over top-line growth to retain capital strength and resilience. Lloyds is expected to adopt a more "interventionist" approach for 2027 growth plans.

The broker states it is expected to restrict the ambitions of syndicates that are unable to show strong cycle management. QBE Insurance is noted as one of the largest operators which represents around 10% of gross written premium.

Due to QBE's robust underwriting record UBS expects it won't be caught up.

Buy. Target $23.95.

Target price is $23.95 Current Price is $23.57 Difference: $0.38
If QBE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.80, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SEK as Buy (-1) -

Ord Minnett lowers its EPS forecasts for Seek by -2%-9% across FY26-FY28 after incorporating rising macroeconomic risks across the A&NZ and Asia labour markets.

Unemployment is expected to rise through FY27 and the broker now forecasts A&NZ job volumes will decline by -4% in FY27 versus previous expectations for flat growth.

Ord Minnett also reduces its FY27 Asia revenue growth forecast to 8% from 10%, while maintaining expectations for 9%-10% yield growth in the A&NZ business.

Nonetheless, Seek is seen as undervalued with potential capital management from any monetisation of the Employment Hero stake.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and lowers its target by -$1.00 to $22.00.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $12.71 Difference: $9.29
If SEK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 73% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.81, suggesting upside of 80.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SGH as Buy (1) -

SGH Ltd has reiterated FY26 EBIT growth guidance in the range of low to mid single-digits. It has flagged aspirations to deliver $100m of measurable benefits from the application of AI technology in FY26-FY27.

Bell Potter notes a sustained up-cycle is expected through to FY30 for the Australian infrastructure and construction pipeline while Australian iron ore and gold production is expected to lift 3% and 12%, respectively.

This underpins the investment case for mining fleet expansion and renewal as well as aftermarket services for WesTrac.

A 50-50 joint venture was also announced between Boral and a Dexus-led ((DXS)) consortium to develop the 6300 ha Ravenhall surplus property under a phased plan. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $50 from $56.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $41.40 Difference: $8.6
If SGH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $50.12, suggesting upside of 21.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SKO as Buy (1) -

Serko's FY26 result shows ongoing investment in strategic opportunities, Ord Minnett highlights.

FY27 spending guidance exceeded market expectations despite progress across Serko AI, Booking.com for Business and US corporate client wins, the broker notes.

Serko AI remains in early-stage development, the analysts highlight, with closed beta testing underway in the US and open beta testing to a larger audience targeted for 3Q27.

Ord Minnett adopts a more conservative stance on short-term forecasts following FY27 guidance, resulting in material EPS downgrades.

Buy rating kept. Target lowered to $3.25 from $4.98.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: $1.935
If SKO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 147% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.08, suggesting upside of 131.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Buy (1) -

Santos will host its 2026 Investor Briefing Day tomorrow, with Citi expecting greater clarity on capital allocation, the Australian strategic review and details around value-accretive growth opportunities.

The broker expects increased certainty around shareholder returns to support a re-rating through FY26-FY27, with forecast average dividend yields of 8%.

A higher and more visible dividend yield is expected to attract the marginal buyer back to the stock, alongside improving balance sheet clarity as Santos de-gears following a heavy capex cycle.

Buy. Target $9.00.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.24 Difference: $0.76
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.28, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TUA as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley halves its target for Tuas to $5.00 and retains an Overweight rating following termination of the M1 Sale and Purchase Agreement in Singapore.

The broker now bases valuation solely on its base case and notes the revised target still implies significant upside. The shares are seen as being disconnected from fundamentals amid negative sentiment surrounding the failed deal and regulatory uncertainty.

Tuas holds cash equivalent to around 42% of market capitalisation and trades on around 7x FY27 EV/EBITDA, representing a discount of more than -50% to peers, the analysts highlight.

No earnings forecast changes are made, with the broker retaining a positive view on the company's organic growth trajectory and market share gains. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: $2.69
If TUA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 116% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in SGD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWR as Buy (1) -

A remediation provision for another pricing error and softer top-line momentum tempered an otherwise solid 1H26 result for Tower, Citi notes.

Management downgraded FY26 gross written premium (GWP) growth guidance to low-single digits from 5%-10%, also raising concerns on the delivery of its medium-term target.

While regulatory risks remain, the broker highlights supportive home unit growth of 9% in 1H and expects stronger GWP growth when the insurance cycle turns.

Tailwinds from the Westpac partnership commencing July 1 are also expected to support premium growth.

Citi retains a Buy rating and $1.75 target, down from $1.85. EPS forecasts for FY27 and FY28 were lowered by -5%.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.222
If TWR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TWR as Neutral (3) -

Tower has reconfirmed the majority of its FY26 guidance, Macquarie notes, with underlying net profit after tax expected by NZ$55m-NZ$65m.

The analyst believes the gross written premium guidance is potentially too high, with management pointing to the Westpac partnership and Kiwibank as tailwinds for 4Q26.

The business as usual loss ratio is indicated at 44.3% reflecting premium rate weakness and higher storm activity. The management expense ratio lifts to 31.4%.

EPS forecasts are tweaked lower for FY26 and FY27 are lifted by 6.8%. Target price is trimmed to NZ$1.80 from NZ$1.80.

No change to Neutral rating.

Current Price is $1.53. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Neutral (3) -

Given the range of negative factors facing the Australian banks and broader economy this year, Citi notes it is unsurprising National Australia Bank has underperformed peers.

The broker highlights NAB's business banking skew leaves it more exposed to slowing credit growth and rising credit risk, while Federal Budget impacts have broadened uncertainty across the housing market.

Citi's regression analysis suggests bank share prices remain heavily driven by macro factors, particularly for CommBank, leaving downside housing risk relevant across the sector.

Buy-rated ANZ Bank and Westpac (Neutral) are the broker's preferred exposures among the big four.

The target for Westpac remains at $39.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $36.55 Difference: $2.45
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.68, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley adopts a cautious view on the Australian banks, arguing changes to property-related tax concessions could materially slow demand for investment properties and mortgage growth.

Investor lending has driven the recent acceleration in housing loan growth, the broker explains, with investment property loans rising to around 10% growth from 6% previously.

Morgan Stanley forecasts system mortgage growth moderates to around 5.5% in FY27. A sharper slowdown to 3%-4% is considered possible if house prices fall -5%-10% and investment property loan growth stalls.

The broker also warns of mortgage margin headwinds from weaker growth and increased competition, estimating FY27 earnings downgrade risk of around -5% for the major banks.

CommBank and Westpac are viewed as having the greatest exposure to Australian mortgages, with Westpac's share price seen as more vulnerable near term to housing market weakness.

Target for Westpac is $34. Underweight rating. Industry view: Cautious.

In a separate report, Morgan Stanley notes rising rates, changes to fiscal policy, and the direct and indirect effects of the global energy shock all point to downside risks to economic growth in Australia.

Here, Westpac and NAB are seen as most vulnerable given fundamentals and investor positioning.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $36.55 Difference: minus $2.55 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.68, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WES as Upgrade to Accumulate from Trim (2) -

Morgans has upgraded Wesfarmers to Accumulate from Trim with a new target price of $81.10 from $80.50 with the share price down -9% over the last year and -7% over the last six months.

The decline is believed to be due to a normalisation of the stock's valuation which is now more "reasonable" at 26.5x FY27 PER versus a peak of around 37x in August 2025.

Investor concerns around consumer demand and RBA rate hikes have also probably weighed on sentiment. Budget changes to negative gearing and CGT could result in spending being redirected to the family home, which is a possible tailwind for Bunnings.

At the upcoming June 10 annual strategy day, the broker expects management to offer some commentary around the health of the consumer as well as strategic initiatives to improve productivity with AI and data management.

Target price is $81.10 Current Price is $74.68 Difference: $6.42
If WES meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $77.90, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources