In Brief: Vista, Amcor & Charter Hall Social Infra

Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM

Strong results from Vista Group, an improving outlook for Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT, plus can Amcor's FY26 result deliver on cost and synergy improvements?

• Vista Group International lifts 2026 guidance after strong 1H earnings beat
• Amcor, the stalwart industrial offering resilience and an improving leverage outlook
• Diversifying away from childcare is a boost for Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT

By Danielle Ecuyer

This week’s quote comes from Ziller Funds Management:

"Global equity investors may need to rethink how they access the world's fastest-growing industries, with traditional market indices underrepresenting many of the structural growth themes expected to drive the global economy over the coming decade.

"Speaking at an investor briefing this week, Joe Ziller, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Ziller Funds Management, said investors risk relying too heavily on backward-looking market benchmarks at a time when artificial intelligence, private capital and founder-led innovation are reshaping the composition of global equity markets.

"Increasingly, many of tomorrow's most important businesses are reaching enormous scale before they ever list. That has significant implications for how investors think about long-term portfolio construction."

"Ziller highlighted analysis showing that structural growth themes—including artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, fintech, cybersecurity and space technology—are expected to account for around 56 per cent of global GDP growth over the next decade, despite representing only around 32 per cent of today's global equity index."

Blockbuster films to boost Vista

Vista Group International ((VGL)) has, thus far, been one of the pleasant earnings surprises in the burgeoning August reporting season.

The New Zealand-headquartered company --$493m market cap-- beat forecasts by some 2% at the revenue line in its 1H26 result, on Shaw and Partners' assessment.

Annual recurring revenue lifted 17% y/y, with SaaS revenue up 38% and recurring revenue up 14%. The implied earnings (EBITDA) margin of 14.4%, or 13.8% ex FX, was in line with expectations.

Canaccord Genuity noted SaaS revenue now represents over 50% of group revenue, up from 42% in 2025 and 41% a year earlier.

Management upgraded 2026 revenue guidance to NZ$179m-NZ$184m from NZ$176m-NZ$182m, signifying annual growth of 9%-12%.

Earnings (EBITDA) margin guidance was retained at 18%-20%. Canaccord notes 2H cash flow is expected to be neutral.

In terms of the ongoing cloud migration, Shaw highlights several major client wins over the first half, including Cinepolis Mexico, Cineworld, Cineplexx and returning customer Cinemax.

Vista has a cloud backlog of around 1,000 sites and management reconfirmed the FY26 target for 1,300 operational excellence sites.

The Shaw analyst attributes the upgrade in revenue guidance to the cloud migration, as well as growth in the domestic box office, up 15% y/y in 1H2026, with a strong 2H film slate including The Odyssey and Spider-Man.

Forex is also noted as more positive, and free cash flow is moving to what is viewed as an "inflection" point. Shaw believes the targeted positive cash flow by FY28 reflects the associated cost imposts from cloud momentum rather than a decline in operating metrics.

The Canaccord analyst emphasises three growth drivers for Vista, the ongoing shift of the existing customer base onto the cloud platform, boosting ARR, growing market share via a rise in the enterprise site base, and monetising transaction volumes via the Vista Payments platform. ARR is over $2m.

Shaw confirms the growth in Payments, with eleven live customers. Management reconfirmed FY30 targets. Shaw believes there is scope for this division to be a substantial growth driver.

Canaccord retains a Buy rating with a $4 target price, while Shaw reiterates its Buy rating with an unchanged $3.70 target price.

Cost outs, resilience and a defensive earnings stream

Jarden ponders if it's time to revisit industrial stalwart Amcor ((AMC)) ahead of its FY26 result after the close of trade on Wednesday, 12th August.

Market expectations are currently positioned at the lower end of guidance for EPS, with consensus forecast at US$3.98, compared to the recently downgraded guidance at the 3Q update of US$3.98-US$4.03.

Jarden views gearing and free cash flow generation as the two key factors, with management pointing to leverage guidance of 3.4x-3.5x and FY26 cash flow of US$1.5bn-US$1.6bn.

Notably, volume trends for the industry are viewed as positive, so will Amcor deliver an improvement in Flexible volumes over 4Q?, the broker questions. At the 3Q update, volumes were down -1.5%, so any turnaround would be welcome.

Cost outs and synergies have underpinned earnings (EBIT) to date. Jarden is forecasting flat 4Q26 volumes y/y, which is presumed to be above market expectations. Earnings (EBIT) forecasts for Flexibles are US$1.763bn, which sits 0.7% above consensus.

FY27 guidance will also be important, as is the case for all earnings reports and updates in August.

Jarden sits slightly below consensus for the FY27 EPS forecast, by -1%, pointing out there is a relatively narrow forecast range.

Regarding Berry synergy targets, the packaging company is targeting US$260m and Jarden is forecasting US$270m with a particular focus on procurement-related strategies from suppliers.

The outlook for gearing is also significant, with management committed to retaining its "investment grade credit rating" against a backdrop of more elevated financial leverage in FY26 at 3.4x-3.5%, well in excess of the targets.

Jarden retains an Overweight rating and a $75.70 target price, down from $75.90.

UBS also lent support to the Amcor narrative this week, noting the stock is trading at a near-cyclical low PER. UBS is forecasting a resilient EPS growth outlook supported by merger synergies.

Buy rated with an $80 target.

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