Australian Broker Call

Morgans rates 29M as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Morgans downgrades 29Metals to Hold from Buy and lowers the target price to 26c from 54c, with concerns over the balance sheet and operations over 2026 following the deferred restart of mining at Xantho.

Management has decided to continue further remediation to bypass "high stress zones" and to alleviate the impact of future seismic occurrences, the analyst explains.

In turn, this has resulted in a significant downgrade to production guidance for zinc by -67%, gold -38% and silver -29% for 2026, prompting the market to focus on potential cash flow and liquidity risks.

Notably, the share price has fallen -35%, reflecting the guidance downgrade, but uncertainty remains. EPS forecasts are accordingly downgraded. The 1Q2026 result is due on April 29.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.02
If 29M meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.42, suggesting upside of 82.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates A1M as Buy (1) -

AIC Mines met production and cost guidance in the March quarter, having established a track record for 11 consecutive quarters, Bell Potter points out. Eloise produced 3432t of copper in concentrate plus 1591 ounces of gold at AISC of $4.18/lb.

FY26 production costs guidance is unchanged. The broker considers this an "excellent" result given a rain-affected quarter that disrupted logistics in the region. Jericho underground is progressing ahead of schedule and achieved first ore in the quarter.

Buy rating. Target rises to $0.85 from $0.80.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.25
If A1M meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMP as Buy (1) -

Citi assesses a "solid" 1Q26 update by AMP, with strong North Platform inflows exceeding $1bn for a fourth consecutive quarter and moderating outflows in Super & Investments.

The broker highlights growth in China Life Pension Company (CLPC) assets as supportive of its above-consensus partnership forecasts, alongside early positive momentum in AMP’s digital bank.

AMP’s valuation and improving platform momentum are considered positives, along with management's focus on releasing more capital from the Bank.

Citi retains a Buy rating and target of $1.80.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0.355
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.79, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMP as Outperform (1) -

AMP has highlighted an improvement in net flows across both platforms and S&I divisions. Platform outflows were more than offset by improved inflows and average assets under management increased to $88.8bn.

Macquarie observes there was no comment about strategic plans while the partnerships in China continue to deliver strong growth. The stock is trading in line with net tangible assets and a buyback should limit downside risk, the broker adds.

Outperform retained with target edging down to $1.94 from $1.96.

Target price is $1.94 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0.495
If AMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.79, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AMP as Overweight (1) -

AMP's platform assets of $85.5bn fell short of Morgan Stanley's expectations in the March quarter while net flows were positive at $330m.

The broker suspects this is reflecting underlying flow improvements, partly offset by seasonality as March tends to be the slowest quarter. No loan growth was recorded in the bank while deposit mix improved.

The broker finds compelling value in the stock as flows ramp up and the recent $150m buyback addresses earlier concerns re soft dividends.

Overweight. Target $1.90. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0.455
If AMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.79, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMP as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett considers the outlook for AMP is improving, noting March quarter fund flows were in line with expectations with aggregate net cash inflow of $326m across its divisions.

The highlight for the broker was impressive growth in deposits for the new digital bank, GO, and accordingly AMP has upgraded 2026 deposit guidance for GO to $1.5bn.

Ord Minnett raises EPS estimates slightly and increases the target to $1.65 from $1.60. A Buy rating is reiterated on valuation grounds.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0.205
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.79, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMP as Buy (1) -

AMP reported slightly softer-than-expected 1Q26 AUM at $144.4bn, UBS observes due to the impact of negative market movements, although net inflows were broadly in line.

The broker highlights improving wealth flows as a key positive, with strong growth across platforms and stabilisation in super and investments.

Margins are expected to benefit from higher North cash account fees, while a $150m buyback is set to commence. Despite some pressure in the banking segment and NZ operations,  the stock's valuation is viewed as "undemanding".

Buy rating retained with an unchanged $1.65 target.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0.205
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.79, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates APA as Outperform (1) -

According to Macquarie, gas has "re-emerged" as a transition fuel and export opportunity, noting the location of new gas fields in the Northern Territory and Qld is likely to facilitate strong demand for APA Group's pipeline capacity over the next 20 years.

The analyst cites the stage 4 and 5 expansions on the ECG as likely to proceed, and Beetaloo is considered a potential "step change" opportunity if connected to the ECG at $4bn-$6bn.

Rising inflation is also a positive, with every 1% change likely to translate to $25m-$30m of additional revenue in FY27, while a higher AUD assists in reducing unhedged USD debt maturities.

Gas is considered an important energy source for electricity generation in winter months.

EPS estimates are lifted over 1% for FY26 and FY27 for the improved gas profile. Outperform retained with a higher target of $10.41 due to a lower risk profile.

Target price is $10.41 Current Price is $9.74 Difference: $0.67
If APA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.67, suggesting downside of -12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BOE as Neutral (3) -

Boss Energy pre-reported March quarter production of 203klb, which missed UBS's forecast of 260klb and previous management guidance due to wet weather impacting operations.

FY26 guidance has been downgraded to 1.40Mlb-1.45Mlb from 1.6Mlb due to ongoing issues with road access. The analyst has lowered FY26 production estimates accordingly.

Neutral retained with a lower target of $1.55 from $1.60. EPS forecasts are lowered by -15% for FY26 and unchanged for FY27.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.64 Difference: minus $0.085 (current price is over target).
If BOE meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.62, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BPG as Speculative Buy (1) -

Black Pearl will publish its fourth quarter update on April 21 and Bell Potter expects 22% quarter on quarter growth in annual recurring revenue, to $25.3m.

Year-on-year growth is also strong, forecast at 103%, and the broker factors in the B2BRocket acquisition and the DaaS product launch.

Ongoing strength in revenue growth will be underpinned by proprietary data sets and cooperative data access. Speculative Buy rating maintained. Target is lowered to $1.76 from $1.91.

Target price is $1.76 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: $1.085
If BPG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 161% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BPT as Sell (5) -

UBS marks to market production for Beach Energy, lowering expectations for Otway due to reduced nominations from Origin Energy ((ORG)) and weaker Cooper Basin output.

Cyclone Narelle has also impacted Waitsia, resulting in another shutdown over the March quarter, with the analyst lowering ramp-up expectations.

The analyst lifts tariff and toll cost assumptions from FY26 onwards. Sell rated.

Target price is reduced to $1.10 from $1.15, with EPS estimates downgraded by -18% for FY26 and -22% for FY27.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.11, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CEN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes March operating statistics were "healthy" for Contact Energy with derived March EBITDAF up 34%. The broker continues to envisage some upside to FY26 guidance.

Wholesale electricity futures weakness over 2026 is expected to reverse on higher imported Indonesian coal costs and firming NZ carbon pricing. Regulatory risk remains elevated given the continued upward pressure on thermal fuel driving retail price inflation and coinciding with a general election in November.

The company has unique long-term baseload renewable geothermal development options which Macquarie suggests the market has placed little value on. Outperform retained with an unchanged NZ$11.20 target.

Current Price is $7.70. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DXS as Neutral (3) -

UBS has reviewed its earnings outlook for Dexus and now expects a weaker FY27, forecasting funds from operations to decline by -6%, with the estimate some -4% below consensus, driven by an “income air pocket”.

The earnings forecast downgrade reflects divestments, a sharp fall in performance fees to around $5m from circa $40m-plus, higher finance costs including Atlassian funding, and materially lower trading profits.

The buyback offers some support but is only partially factored in (circa $460m), with full execution dependent on asset sales, refinancing and potential divestment of the Atlassian stake, with accretion rising if completed in full.

The valuation seems attractive at a circa -30% discount to NTA, but weak growth, office sector headwinds and ongoing uncertainties are expected to cap near-term outperformance. Neutral rating retained. Target rises to $6.68 from $6.59.

Target price is $6.68 Current Price is $6.09 Difference: $0.59
If DXS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.98, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EIQ as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans initiates coverage of EchoIQ with a Speculative Buy rating and a $1.30 target price.

The analyst explains its EchoSolv platform is positioned as a first-mover in AI cardiac diagnostics, already FDA cleared for aortic stenosis and validated at leading institutions including Beth Israel Deaconess and Mayo Clinic.

The platform is underpinned by exclusive access to the NEDA dataset, spanning 24 years and millions of echocardiograms, providing a significant competitive moat.

Morgans details a commercial agreement with Mayo supports rollout across 19 hospitals and an 80-plus hospital network.

The upcoming FDA 510(k) decision for heart failure is expected to materially expand the addressable market, with heart failure representing circa 17% of US healthcare spend.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.15
If EIQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ELS as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter observes demand is increasing, from analysing government disclosures and unmanned aircraft system (UAS) OEMs, noting the US and Europe are severely lacking UAS production capacity when compared to Ukraine and adversaries.

Governments globally have responded to the deficiency, with the US budget of US$9.4bn in FY26 for autonomous systems, seeking "drone dominance". Germany also plans to invest EUR10bn in UAS.

The broker believes Elsight has developed a market leading product leveraged to the proliferation of unmanned systems in both defence and commercial contexts.

The shares offer relative value versus listed peers and a Buy rating is maintained. The key driver for the shares is expected to be revenue upgrades from OEM production capacity expansion. Target rises to $8.00 from $5.80.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $6.80 Difference: $1.2
If ELS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FBU as Neutral (3) -

Fletcher Building’s recovery is expected to be delayed by 6-12 months due to external pressures including the Iran conflict, weak consumer confidence and the upcoming NZ election, with the company only partially offsetting impacts through pricing and cost controls, UBS explains.

The decline in the share price of some -60% since February is viewed as discounting the probability of a "U"-shaped recovery.

March quarter volumes showed early signs of improvement in light building products, but heavy products and residential activity remain weak, with demand uncertainty persisting.

EPS forecasts are cut by -11% in FY26 and -24% in FY27, although management has yet to quantify the impact of a delay in the recovery, with the broker seeing signs of weaker demand, notably in housing.

Neutral rating retained. Target slips to NZ$3.35 from NZ$3.60.

Current Price is $2.42. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.76, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GMD as Buy (1) -

Genesis Minerals delivered 67,497 ounces of gold in the March quarter, with gold sales of 65,049 ounces at an average realised price of $6755/oz.

Bell Potter asserts the business has demonstrated cost discipline in a challenging environment with the stock undervalued relative to peers.

Mining activities were largely in line with expectations, although the broker notes some declines in grade at Gwalia and Ulysses were offset by increased tonnage at Ulysses.

The company has not experienced any interruption to fuel supplies to date. Buy rating and $9.90 target unchanged.

Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $6.67 Difference: $3.23
If GMD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.46, suggesting upside of 43.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMD as Buy (1) -

Genesis Minerals’ 3Q result was broadly in line with consensus expectations, Citi notes, with production -3% below consensus and costs marginally higher.

Strong cash generation was supported by elevated gold prices, the analyst explains, while the Tower Hill project remains on track, progressing to construction with unchanged capex guidance.

FY26 guidance was reaffirmed, with Citi expecting production toward the midpoint and costs toward the upper end of the range, while noting potential upside from future strategic updates.

Buy. Target $10.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $6.67 Difference: $3.33
If GMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.46, suggesting upside of 43.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMD as Outperform (1) -

Genesis Minerals delivered March quarter production that was a little weaker than Macquarie anticipated amid lower grade and recoveries.

The company has indicated it is tracking in line with the midpoint of FY26 production guidance, with year to date production of 215,000 ounces representing 78%.

Macquarie considers the stock high quality amid an attractive valuation and undemanding multiples. Outperform retained. Target is reduced to $9.10 from $9.60.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $6.67 Difference: $2.43
If GMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.46, suggesting upside of 43.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GMD as Buy (1) -

UBS views Genesis Minerals as able to achieve FY26 mid-guidance production post 3Q26 production of 67koz, or 60koz ex ore purchases, which came in slightly below expectations.

AISC of $2,685/oz, or $2,755/oz ex ore purchases, was a slight beat on consensus on a like-for-like comparison, the analyst explains.

FY26 production is forecast at 280koz at $2,739/oz including ore purchases, with a slight rise in capex in 4Q to a forecast -$76m.

The producer is considered able to both fund and execute on the potential to double production against a backdrop of increasing headwinds for the WA gold sector.

Buy rating retained with an unchanged $10.15 target price.

Target price is $10.15 Current Price is $6.67 Difference: $3.48
If GMD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.46, suggesting upside of 43.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GPT as Accumulate (2) -

GPT Group has completed a capital raising of $610m for its wholesale shopping centre fund (GWSCF), increased from a planned $500m because of strong investor demand for equity in the trust. Funds will be used for growth initiatives.

Ord Minnett believes this shows investor confidence in regional shopping centres and the company's funds platform.

A rising interest-rate environment means rate hedging falls to 30% for 2028, versus 72% in 2026, and the broker downgrades FFO forecasts to account for higher interest expense.

Accumulate retained. Target is reduced to $5.25 from $5.45.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.68 Difference: $0.57
If GPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.49, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HVN as Downgrade to Sell from Buy (5) -

Citi expects a prolonged period of elevated oil prices and rising interest rates to weigh on consumer spending into FY27, prompting earnings downgrades across the discretionary retail sector.

The broker continues to prefer JB Hi-Fi within discretionary retail and Coles Group among supermarkets, both Buy rated, while noting expectations for further rate hikes in May and June.

The target for Harvey Norman is reduced to $4.20 from $7.00 and the rating downgraded to Sell from Buy.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.71 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If HVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.81, suggesting upside of 27.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JBH as Buy (1) -

Citi expects a prolonged period of elevated oil prices and rising interest rates to weigh on consumer spending into FY27, prompting earnings downgrades across the discretionary retail sector.

The broker continues to prefer JB Hi-Fi within discretionary retail and Coles Group among supermarkets, both Buy rated, while noting expectations for further rate hikes in May and June.

The target for JB Hi-Fi falls to $85 from $100 and the rating is kept at Buy. Outperformance is anticipated in a risk-on environment, with the broker highlighting management's ability to flex costs in line with softer sales growth.

Target price is $85.00 Current Price is $76.45 Difference: $8.55
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $88.78, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates KYP as Buy (1) -

Kinatico has indicated SaaS revenue was up 28% year-on-year in the March quarter, with total revenue up 5% year-on-year but down -1% quarter on quarter.

Bell Potter notes the result shows legacy revenue was $3.3m, weaker than expected as a result of the macro environment and recent hiring downturn. This suggests the impact is temporary and not structural.

The broker downgrades revenue forecasts by around -3-4% for FY26-28. FY26 EBITDA is expected to be $5.5m while Bell Potter continues to expect net profit of around $2m. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $0.36 from $0.38.

Target price is $0.36 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.225
If KYP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 167% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LAU as Buy (1) -

Lindsay Australia is among transport companies passing through increased diesel fuel costs, which along with fertiliser input costs have potential to affect industry volumes, Ord Minnett suggests, in the event of prolonged high prices.

The broker increases fuel levy expectations for the second half of FY26 and the first half of FY27. Despite the headwinds Ord Minnett believes the company can pursue market share growth through FY27 and FY28.

This view stems from the national network, scale and rail offering for customers that could look for a more cost-effective solution with lower fuel intensity. Rail accounts for over 20% of group earnings.

A Buy rating is maintained with the target edging down to $0.97 from $0.99.

Target price is $0.97 Current Price is $0.61 Difference: $0.365
If LAU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects shipments of iron ore for Mineral Resources will be slightly weaker in the third quarter, affected by the cyclone, while a 6% beat to expectations in lithium is forecast. The key watch in lithium will be market pricing.

Higher energy costs will also be in focus and any impact on the progressive deleveraging that the company anticipates over the next six months.

Macquarie points out the company is somewhat protected at a group level from diesel cost increases, albeit with still a large overhang on costs, via CSI income. The broker is constructive on the company's progress and retains an Outperform rating with the target increasing 4% to $75.

Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $59.34 Difference: $15.66
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $68.60, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MTS as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi expects a prolonged period of elevated oil prices and rising interest rates to weigh on consumer spending into FY27, prompting earnings downgrades across the discretionary retail sector.

The broker continues to prefer JB Hi-Fi within discretionary retail and Coles Group among supermarkets, both Buy rated, while noting expectations for further rate hikes in May and June.

The target for Metcash falls to $2.80 from $3.60 and the rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $3.01 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If MTS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.52, suggesting upside of 21.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NWL as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter found the trading update from Netwealth Group positive and ahead of expectations. All client segments contributed. Distribution capabilities have also been upgraded.

The company has reiterated FY26 guidance, incorporating an underlying EBITDA margin of 49%.

Estimates for EPS are downgraded by -1% for FY27 amid steady average funds balances and "take rates". Buy rating and $30 target unchanged.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $25.22 Difference: $4.78
If NWL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.70, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWL as Buy (1) -

Netwealth Group's 3Q update delivered stronger-than-expected net flows, Citi assesses, supporting momentum into 4Q, despite slightly weaker funds under administration (FUA).

The broker's FY26 profit forecasts are trimmed marginally to reflect market-related revenue impacts, while margin expectations remain broadly in line with guidance.

Potential upside to FY27 flows from improved win rates is noted, particularly in the broker channel, though some margin risk from hiring trends is expected.

Buy rating. Target $27.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $25.22 Difference: $1.78
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.70, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWL as Outperform (1) -

March quarter net flows for Netwealth Group were ahead of Macquarie's estimates and were equivalent to 12.5% of annualised funds under management.

The company has reaffirmed FY26 guidance, expecting net flows will not differ materially from FY25 along with an EBITDA margin of around 49%.

Macquarie reiterates an Outperform rating as, since underperforming on the initial announcement of problems at First Guardian, the stock is yet to recover. Target edges up to $27.90 from $27.80.

Target price is $27.90 Current Price is $25.22 Difference: $2.68
If NWL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.70, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NWL as Overweight (1) -

Netwealth Group delivered third quarter net inflows that were higher than expected with funds under administration lower amid adverse market movements.

Morgan Stanley highlights the progress with onboarding two private wealth firms. Individual HIN solution is now being piloted, with a more detailed release expected in July.

Overweight. Target is $35. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $25.22 Difference: $9.78
If NWL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.70, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NWL as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans notes Netwealth Group's 3Q26 net flows of $3.96bn were slightly better than expected, a 5% beat, but ongoing market volatility impacted performance, with funds under administration flat q/q at $124.8bn, below the consensus forecast of $129.8bn.

Net inflows for the quarter rose 14.8% y/y, while gross outflows of -$7.6bn were up 19.4% y/y and were lifted by the transition of one institutional client at -$0.4bn.

Member accounts grew 2.6% q/q and up 13.4% y/y. No change to the $29 target and Accumulate rating. Net profit after tax forecasts are tweaked lower for FY26-FY28.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $25.22 Difference: $3.78
If NWL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.70, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NWL as Hold (3) -

Netwealth Group revealed ongoing momentum in underlying net flows in the March quarter with total net flows of $3.96bn ahead of expectations. Negative market impacts meant total funds under administration of $125.8bn were -3% lower than consensus.

Guidance has been reiterated and the operating trends appears sound, although Ord Minnett reduces forecasts slightly to reflect the lower FUA base. Hold rating. Target edges down to $25 from $26.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $25.22 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.70, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NWL as Neutral (3) -

Netwealth Group announced March quarter net flows of $3.9bn, ahead of UBS' expectations, with FUA of $124.6bn flat q/q as market volatility offset inflows.

Adviser numbers rose to 4.1k, up 6% y/y, with account growth of 13% y/y and managed account penetration lifting to 22.2%.

The analyst notes revenue trends remain resilient, supported by higher cash allocations and transaction activity, with only modest EPS upgrades.

Neutral retained with the target raised to $27.00 from $24.15, with HUB24 ((HUB)) preferred in the sector.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $25.22 Difference: $1.78
If NWL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.70, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OBM as Outperform (1) -

Record March quarter production from Ora Banda Mining beat estimates, driven by higher milling and offset slightly by lower processed grades. FY26 guidance is unchanged with year-to-date production of 101,000 ounces representing 69% versus the mid point.

Macquarie assesses the business is continuing to advance, with cash flow generation helping to de-risk the funding path for the new 3mtpa processing facility at Davyhurst.

Outperform retained. Target is steady at $1.70.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0.25
If OBM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.90, suggesting upside of 27.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates OBM as Buy (1) -

Ora Banda Mining delivered March quarter production that exceeded Ord Minnett's expectations while FY26 production guidance has been reiterated.

Operations at Davyhurst were strong with ore mine from Riverina and Sand King deposits up 24% quarter on quarter. Grades rose 4% and 5%, respectively.

The broker notes the company is already stockpiling ore for feedstock for any expansion and reducing its reliance on tolling deals with outside parties.

This decision to stockpile means a negative impact on production earnings over FY27 and FY28, the broker points out. A decision on a new mill is expected in the June quarter.

Ord Minnett cuts EPS estimates by -3.3% for FY26 and by -14.2% FY27 and FY28. Target rises to $2.50 from $2.00 and a Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $1.05
If OBM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.90, suggesting upside of 27.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates OBM as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS downgrades Ora Banda Mining to Neutral from Buy, with an unchanged target of $1.50, due to the share price having rallied and medium-term earnings risks skewed to the downside.

March quarter volumes were viewed as "solid", with production and sales beating expectations, although higher reliance on third-party processing lifted costs.

Guidance remains unchanged, with modest FY26 earnings upgrades and stronger FY27 forecasts driven by sustained throughput above nameplate capacity.

The broker highlights the upcoming June quarter expansion study as a key catalyst, incorporating a new 3Mtpa plant with circa -$450m capex, but sees execution and timing risks given industry constraints.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0.05
If OBM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.90, suggesting upside of 27.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PMV as Neutral (3) -

Citi expects a prolonged period of elevated oil prices and rising interest rates to weigh on consumer spending into FY27, prompting earnings downgrades across the discretionary retail sector.

The broker continues to prefer JB Hi-Fi within discretionary retail and Coles Group among supermarkets, both Buy rated, while noting expectations for further rate hikes in May and June.

The target for Premier Investments falls by -20c to $12.80 and the Neutral rating is unchanged.

Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $12.82 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.22, suggesting upside of 27.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates STO as Buy (1) -

UBS marks to market production for Santos, lowering WA output for Varanus post Cyclone Narelle, alongside weaker Cooper Basin production and a slower ramp-up of Barossa following a shutdown of more than one month from March.

Pikka is also delayed into 2Q2026, with first oil expected imminently.

The broker updates oil and LNG price assumptions, lowering the target price to $8.70 from $8.80, with Buy retained. EPS forecasts are cut by -6% for 2026 and lifted slightly in 2027.

Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $7.65 Difference: $1.05
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.10, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUL as Buy (1) -

Citi expects a prolonged period of elevated oil prices and rising interest rates to weigh on consumer spending into FY27, prompting earnings downgrades across the discretionary retail sector.

The broker continues to prefer JB Hi-Fi within discretionary retail and Coles Group among supermarkets, both Buy rated, while noting expectations for further rate hikes in May and June.

The target for Super Retail falls by -$4.00 to $15.00 and the Buy rating is unchanged.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $12.66 Difference: $2.34
If SUL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.48, suggesting upside of 23.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TLX as Buy (1) -

Telix Pharmaceuticals has refinanced its $650m convertible note with a new US$600m convertible note facility. The refinancing will remove an overhang on the shares, providing greater certainty to shareholders, Bell Potter observes.

The expanded principal balance will also provide greater flexibility on future funding.

The broker notes the refinancing is coming on the back of the co-development and co-commercialisation deal with Regeneron. Telix will receive an US$40m upfront fee which is expected to amortise over several years. Buy rating and $19 target maintained.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $15.00 Difference: $4
If TLX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.84, suggesting upside of 76.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VEA as Buy (1) -

Viva Energy has experienced a major fire at the Geelong refinery which has disrupted production, with the company entering a trading halt on ASX until Monday, April 20 in order to assess the damage and quantify the impact.

The fire appears to be confined to petrol producing sections of the plant and is expected to have a "meaningful but not material" on volumes. Higher margin diesel and jet full products appear to be unaffected.

There is also a business interruption insurance package that kicks in after 45 days which will reduce the negative impact of the fire.

Ord Minnett notes, while Victoria is heavily dependent on Geelong products, the refinery only makes up 10% of total Australian fuel production. Buy rating and target of $2.85 maintained.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: $0.32
If VEA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.91, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates VGN as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi lowers its target for Virgin Australia to $3.10 from $3.60 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral.

These changes follow the broker's initial research yesterday, which is summarised below.

In a quick take, Citi notes Virgin Australia has retained earnings (EBIT) guidance for 2H26 growth. Expectations for fuel are a net rise of "only" $30m-$40m due to hedging for Brent crude at 92% and refining margin at 71%.

Revenue per available seat kilometre (RASK) is expected to lift by 1.5% to 5% in 2H26, management flagged, versus 3%-4% previously.

The analyst estimates the net change in revenue will be small, with earnings changes likely to come in at the lower end of the fuel guidance.

Refining hedging is due to decline to 15% in 1H27, with Citi questioning to what extent fuel cost pressures will translate into FY27.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.64 Difference: $0.46
If VGN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.67, suggesting upside of 44.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

UBS marks to market Woodside Energy's production at Wheatstone and Karratha, factoring in the impact of Cyclone Narelle, alongside updated oil and gas price assumptions, including higher ammonia price forecasts for Beaumont New Ammonia.

Linde is expected to be commissioned by the end of 2026, with the analyst assuming a slower ramp-up at Beaumont due to limited nitrogen and hydrogen supply following construction delays.

A green premium is applied to Beaumont's blue ammonia from 2027 onwards.

EPS forecasts rise 4% for 2026 and 2% for 2027, with the target price increasing to $30.40 from $30.20 and the Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $30.40 Current Price is $32.81 Difference: minus $2.41 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.93, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WES as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi expects a prolonged period of elevated oil prices and rising interest rates to weigh on consumer spending into FY27, prompting earnings downgrades across the discretionary retail sector.

The broker continues to prefer JB Hi-Fi within discretionary retail and Coles Group among supermarkets, both Buy rated, while noting expectations for further rate hikes in May and June.

The target for Wesfarmers falls to $69 from $90 and the rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral.

Target price is $69.00 Current Price is $74.06 Difference: minus $5.06 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $80.26, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WHC as Buy (1) -

UBS views Whitehaven Coal's capital structure has improved following a US$900m bond issuance and a US$600m syndicated facility, lowering the cost of debt to circa 6.3%.

The proceeds will refinance acquisition debt and fund corporate activities, with the cost of capital now estimated at around 8.1%.

However, rising diesel costs are expected to pressure margins, adding around circa $4/t to unit costs in 2H FY26 and continuing into FY27. FY26  EPS forecast rises 15% on better production conditions, while FY27 EPS forecast are lowered by -13% on rising cost pressures.

Buy rating retained. Target slips to $9.60 from $10.10.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $8.42 Difference: $1.18
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.26, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WTC as Buy (1) -

UBS highlights ongoing market caution around WiseTech Global, due to AI disruption risks, potential customer in-sourcing and softer global trade volumes, although the broker maintains a positive view on the company’s structural moat.

The analyst lowers medium-term revenue growth forecasts, with earnings estimates reduced to reflect both macro headwinds and the potential loss of key customers such as DSV. CAGR forecasts have slipped to 13% from 18% between FY27-FY30.

The market is viewed as pricing in a conservative “grey sky” scenario, assuming limited pricing upside, slower growth and further customer losses, which UBS considers somewhat harsh.

While global container volumes show signs of slowing amid Middle East uncertainty, valuation is seen as attractive relative to global SaaS peers, with risks balanced by potential upside if customer retention and growth prove more resilient.

Target price falls to $67 from $89 with a Buy rating retained.

Target price is $67.00 Current Price is $44.90 Difference: $22.1
If WTC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $79.34, suggesting upside of 71.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources