Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates ALD as Outperform (1) -

Management at Ampol has today provided a March quarter trading update along with an update on fuel supply arrangements.

At first glance, Macquarie assesses a "solid" quarter, with a strong refining performance and better-than-expected fuel volumes in Australia, partly supported by March “panic buying”.

While output was in line with the analyst's forecast, refining margins at Lytton exceeded expectation, benefiting from elevated pricing during the conflict, while the company has secured crude supply despite higher costs.

The Fuels & Infrastructure division also benefited from one-off trading gains from stored and arbitrage cargoes, the broker explains.

Ampol is seen as well positioned to navigate volatility, supported by hedging and secured fuel supply, with demand remaining relatively stable despite rising costs.

Target $40. Outperform rating maintained.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $31.61 Difference: $8.39
If ALD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.83, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALX as Neutral (3) -

After yesterday's initial research note (see summary below), Citi maintains its Neutral rating and $4.80 target for Atlas Arteria.

In a quick take, Citi notes Atlas Arteria announced broadly flat 1Q2026 toll revenue, up 0.1%, or 1.6% excluding FX, with weaker APRR (Autoroutes Paris-Rhin-Rhone) traffic offset by stable performance at Chicago Skyway and strong growth at Dulles Greenway.

APRR declines were driven by softer light vehicle traffic, partly mitigated by a stronger heavy vehicle mix, while Chicago toll increases offset weather impacted traffic, the analyst notes.

Commentary highlights Dulles Greenway continues to show solid momentum, moving closer to distribution lock up removal.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.24 Difference: $0.56
If ALX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.72, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALX as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights softer traffic across Atlas Arteria's key assets, particularly APRR and Skyway, reflecting adverse weather and higher fuel prices, with the latter likely to linger for a little while longer.

Greenway in the US is considered the standout, delivering a stronger-than-expected rebound, partly offsetting weaker performance elsewhere.

The broker flags currency as a growing headwind, potentially pressuring dividends over FY27-FY29 despite near-term hedging. Earnings forecasts are lowered, and the price target is reduced to $5.02 from $5.43.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating, citing improving momentum at Greenway.

Target price is $5.02 Current Price is $4.24 Difference: $0.78
If ALX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.72, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALX as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley anticipates a muted reaction to the March quarter results from Atlas Arteria, noting first quarter traffic for APRR was down -1% and weaker than expected.

Chicago Skyway traffic was flat while Dulles Greenway was up 8%. Headwinds in the current quarter include higher global fuel prices, particularly in France.

Equal-weight. Target is $4.96. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $4.96 Current Price is $4.24 Difference: $0.72
If ALX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.72, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALX as Neutral (3) -

Atlas Arteria's 1Q26 result showed early signs of macro softness, with group revenue around -2% below UBS' expectations and weaker traffic across key assets, including APRR, Adelac and Chicago Skyway, partly offset by favourable vehicle mix and stronger performance at Dulles Greenway.

APRR toll revenue rose 1.2% y/y, below the 3.6% y/y growth expected, while Skyway and Adelac also missed forecasts, with notable weakness in heavy vehicle volumes at Skyway, down -7.3%, and Warnow Tunnel declining -5.8% on traffic disruption.

The broker lowers earnings forecasts on ongoing weakness, while the target price falls to $4.50 from $5.15, largely attributed to forex and interest rates.

Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.24 Difference: $0.26
If ALX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.72, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ANZ as Sell (5) -

Morgans revises forecasts ahead of the first half results from ANZ Bank to reflect recent updates provided by peers. As a result FY26-FY28 estimates for EPS are downgraded by -6-7%.

This is based on growth rates for Australian assets implied in the APRA monthly balance sheet data and reflecting the 5% increase in AUD/NZD, which reduces the Australian dollar translation of New Zealand balances and earnings.

The broker also moderates the outlook for growth in non-interest income. Morgans notes the bank is relatively more complex than peers given large exposures to institutional and international activities and amid greater reliance on wholesale and term deposit funding.

Sell rating maintained. Target is reduced to $30.72 from $32.65.

Target price is $30.72 Current Price is $37.28 Difference: minus $6.56 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.25, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie views today's 3QFY26 operational result by BHP Group as broadly in line, with iron ore and copper meeting expectations, while metallurgical coal missed due to weather-related disruptions. A balanced operational outcome and stable outlook are noted.

Iron ore shipments were slightly weaker due to cyclones, though pricing was stronger than expected, the analyst explains. Guidance for iron ore remains unchanged following the conclusion of China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) negotiations.

Copper performance was supported by strength at Escondida and Antamina, the broker highlights, offsetting weakness at Spence, with full-year guidance maintained at the upper end.

Neutral rating. Target $53.

Target price is $53.00 Current Price is $55.51 Difference: minus $2.51 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $54.05, suggesting downside of -3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BOQ as Buy (1) -

Bank of Queensland’s 1H26 cash earnings of $176m (released today) missed forecasts by consensus and Citi by around -4%. In an initial assessment, the broker notes the net interest margin (NIM) was around -5bps softer than expected.

The NIM decline was driven by timing factors, including cash rate impacts and competition, which the analysts expect to reverse in 2H26, supported by funding and mix tailwinds.

Much of the decline also appears timing-related, including scope to optimise liquidity following the Whole Loan Sale (WLS), part of the bank's equipment finance loan book.

Costs were in line, while higher bad debt charges were manageable and asset quality remains sound, according to Citi.

The market is expected to look through the miss, supported by an improving margin outlook, solid provisioning and ongoing capital management potential.

Target $7.15. Buy.

Target price is $7.15 Current Price is $7.27 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.84, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BOQ as Buy (1) -

In a UBS snapshot, Bank of Queensland’s 1H26 result missed expectations, with cash NPAT of $176m below both broker and consensus forecasts.

The broker highlights weaker revenue and NII, alongside margin pressure, partially offset by stronger non-interest income and a capital outcome ahead of expectations, with CET1 at 11.18%.

Management guidance points to NIM tailwinds into 2H26 and continued lending growth, although near-term earnings remain impacted by asset sales and higher impairment charges.

Buy. Target $7.50.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.27 Difference: $0.23
If BOQ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.84, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BPG as Speculative Buy (1) -

Black Pearl's recurring revenue was ahead of Bell Potter's expectations in the fourth quarter, up 114% year-on-year to $26.8m.

The rapid growth in revenue has been driven by superior outcomes versus competitors, the broker notes, via Pearl Engine, which reduces "the gap between perception and reality in identifying a high-intent audience".

The company has now scaled up to process 31bn daily sales and marketing signals, underpinning its ability to add value to new and existing products and customer outcomes.

Bell Potter retains a Speculative Buy rating and raises its target to $1.82 from $1.76.

Target price is $1.82 Current Price is $0.82 Difference: $1
If BPG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 122% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CAR as Buy (1) -

UBS views Seek ((SEK)) as the most exposed company to rising macro uncertainty and higher inflation after incorporating the broker's Economics and Strategy view of "stagflation light" for Australian online classifieds.

The analyst considers Seek to have more cyclical sensitivity and exposure relative to Car Group and REA Group (REA). Despite the uncertain macro backdrop, a Buy rating is retained on all three stocks.

The target price is cut by -15% to $33.80 from $39.90 largely due to a rise in the risk free rate to 4.5% from 4%.

EPS forecasts are lowered by -1% for FY26 and -3% for FY27.

Target price is $33.80 Current Price is $25.91 Difference: $7.89
If CAR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.85, suggesting upside of 35.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CGF as Buy (1) -

Citi views Challenger’s 3Q update as mixed, with positives including solid Japan and lifetime annuity sales, along with tighter FY26 guidance.

Higher capital intensity, shorter-duration sales and outflows in Funds Management provide an offset, the analyst explains.

The longer-term growth outlook is seen as intact, supported by potential capital returns and improving earnings prospects.

The broker trims its FY27-FY28 EPS forecasts by around -1% due to lower funds under management (FUM), partly offset by capital note redemptions.

The broker retains a Buy rating and $10.00 target.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.39 Difference: $1.61
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.58, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CGF as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie views Challenger’s 3Q update as mixed, with solid growth in annuity sales offset by weaker Funds Management flows.

Due to significant institutional outflows, funds under management (FUM) declined -9% over the quarter, the broker observes.

Retail and institutional annuity sales rose 6.3% and 11.6%, respectively, with Japan contributing around 26% of sales, in line with seasonal trends, the analyst explains.

FY26 EPS guidance was tightened to 66cps-70cps from 66cps-72cps, with capital remaining within the target range.

Macquarie lowers its earnings forecasts and trims its target to $9.40 from $10.00, and retains an Outperform rating.

Target price is $9.40 Current Price is $8.39 Difference: $1.01
If CGF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.58, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CGF as Equal-weight (3) -

Challenger reported total domestic annuity sales of $806m in the third quarter, up 7%. Total life sales were $1.7bn and in line with Morgan Stanley's estimates.

Capital declined -7 basis points quarter on quarter while the company announced it would redeem around $385m in capital notes in May.

EPS guidance has been tightened to 66-70c per security. Going forward, Morgan Stanley suggests, a steepening yield curve could support margins and help with a move towards longer-tenure annuity sales.

Morgan Stanley retains Equal-weight and an $8.55 target. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $8.55 Current Price is $8.39 Difference: $0.16
If CGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.58, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CGF as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes Challenger reported 3Q26 life net inflows of $254m, up 1.2% q/q, though at a more moderate pace of growth versus recent periods.

Total wealth manager FUM fell around -10% to $104.5bn, reflecting net outflows of -$8bn and negative market performance of -$3.4bn due to the impact of the Middle East conflict.

The analyst tweaks EPS forecasts down for FY26 and raises FY27 slightly. No change to target price, $9.85, and Buy rating.

Target price is $9.85 Current Price is $8.39 Difference: $1.46
If CGF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.58, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CGF as Buy (1) -

UBS explains Challenger's 3Q26 update showed solid Life momentum, with sales of $1.72bn up 19% y/y and 14% ahead of forecasts, driven by stronger Challenger Index Plus flows and higher-quality growth in longer-duration annuities.

Life capital remained robust, with improving market conditions and upcoming APRA rule changes supporting potential 'Day 1' returns of $300m and an additional circa $300m upside to capital management capacity, lifting total buyback potential to around $1.3bn, the analyst explains.

Funds Management disappointed the broker, with AUM down -10% to $104.5bn on elevated net outflows of -$8.0bn. EPS forecasts are downgraded slightly.

Buy rating retained with a higher target of $10.10 from $10.05.

Target price is $10.10 Current Price is $8.39 Difference: $1.71
If CGF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.58, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COH as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie highlights Cochlear has materially downgraded FY26 guidance, with underlying NPAT now expected at $290-330m, around -29% below the prior midpoint.

The broker notes softer-than-expected cochlear implant sales, with 2H26 growth guided to growth of 2%-6% constant currency versus prior expectations of 13%-plus growth, reflecting weaker developed market demand and ongoing hospital capacity constraints.

Notably, services and acoustics divisions remain supportive, but structural pressures across referral networks and healthcare systems are weighing on near-term growth with headwinds from weaker consumer sentiment, China reimbursement changes, and geopolitical disruption in the Middle East.

Neutral. Target $239.

Target price is $239.00 Current Price is $167.94 Difference: $71.06
If COH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $230.66, suggesting upside of 131.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett downgrades Behring revenue growth assumptions due to lower expectations for immunoglobulin (Ig) and albumin over 2H26.

Despite the lower expectations, the broker still anticipates better half-on-half results for all Ig and albumin revenue, but is less upbeat than previously, based on the most recent data from the US-based Plasma Protein Therapeutics Association.

The positives from the cost cutting program are flagged to improve the company's operating leverage, with earnings (EBITA) estimated to grow at around 8% on the back of a forecast 2% rise in revenue in FY27.

EPS forecasts are lowered by -2% for FY26 and -3.6% for FY27, with the target trimmed to $186 from $198. Hold rating unchanged.

Target price is $186.00 Current Price is $137.00 Difference: $49
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $201.19, suggesting upside of 54.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CWY as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley remains positive regarding the prospects for Cleanaway Waste Management, noting momentum in its Blueprint 2030 2.0 strategy. IT investment is largely complete and lower capital intensity is expected going forward.

EBIT margin expansion of 260 basis points is the target, to 15% by FY30. The broker notes the share price is down -8% year-to-date compared with the ASX 200 industrials, which is down -4% over the same period.

This is attributed to previous setbacks and cash flow quality. Morgan Stanley believes the valuation is undemanding and retains an Overweight rating with a target of $2.91. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $2.91 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: $0.53
If CWY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.96, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CWY as Buy (1) -

Morgans expects investors will be pleased with the update from Cleanaway Waste Management on how it intends to grow earnings and cash flow across FY27-FY30.

Key to its strategy is to extract more value from the operating platform, targeting EPS growth of 10-15% over the period.

The key attraction for Morgans is the leading market position, a robust solid waste services segment, operating leverage and underlying cash conversion.

The broker reduces the target to $2.80 from $2.95, having moderated EPS forecasts to move closer to the company's medium-term expectations. Buy retained.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: $0.42
If CWY meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.96, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CWY as Buy (1) -

UBS observes Cleanaway Waste Management outlined Phase 2 of its Blueprint 2030 strategy, targeting over 260bps earnings (EBIT) margin expansion from FY26–FY30 and EPS growth of 10–15% p.a., with FY27 growth expected to exceed this range on synergy realisation and cost-out initiatives.

Margin expansion is expected to be driven by improved revenue management and network optimisation, leveraging CustomerConnect for dynamic pricing and stronger customer penetration.

The analysts views free cash flow to be at an inflection point, with management confident there will be sufficient free cash flow to fund growth, sustain distributions and support deleveraging.

Middle East exposure remains a headwind, with around -$20m earnings (EBIT) impact largely from fuel costs, though management attributes this to timing of cost pass-through rather than structural pressure.

Buy rating retained with a $3.05 target price.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: $0.67
If CWY meets the UBS target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.96, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DBI as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage of Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure with a Buy rating and $6 target. The company is a leaseholder and operator of Dalrymple Bay terminal which serves as a critical export facility for coking and thermal coal in Queensland.

The broker considers the terminal a top tier asset as it generates reliable and predictable cash flow, underpinned by robust demand for metallurgical coal.

The company has longer-term expansion in its masterplan although Ord Minnett does not factor this into its valuation. Compound annual growth rate of 8% is forecast for distributions over the FY25-FY28 period.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.29 Difference: $0.71
If DBI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.65, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ELT as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans notes, since Elementos delivered its definitive feasibility study for Oropesa, Spain, in May 2025 the tin price lifted to US$50,000/t from US$30,000/t.

Increasing semiconductor sales amid growth in solar voltaics and electric vehicle production have underpinned demand, while the current geopolitical tensions and resource nationalism (China is responsible for 31% of world supply) are receiving more focus, the broker observes.

Political and administrative approvals for Oropesa should provide a catalyst as well as a final investment decision by the company, and Morgans increases the target to $0.51 from $0.30. Speculative Buy.

Target price is $0.51 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.16
If ELT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GDG as Buy (1) -

On first look, Citi views Generation Development Group's 3Q26 result as mixed, with net flows of $1.4bn missing expectations due to timing delays and softer organic flows, although investment bonds and Lonsec performed strongly.

The broker notes the key mandate transition, over $1.5bn has started and is expected to complete by May-26, supporting a seasonally stronger 4Q and a recovery in flows.

FY26 FUM forecasts are trimmed modestly to around $40bn, and EPS forecasts by around -1% for FY26 and -3% for FY27-28 due to delayed mandates and weaker near-term flows.

Longer term, the analyst highlights structural tailwinds in managed accounts, with industry FUM expected to expand significantly, positioning the company for sustained earnings growth. Buy retained, target reduced to $6.40 from $6.80.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $1.8
If GDG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.83, suggesting upside of 89.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GLF as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Morgans believes the recent weakness in the share price of Gemlife Communities has been overdone and reassesses key assumptions in the wake of the Middle East war, a higher interest-rate outlook and softer auction clearance sales.

The broker is still positive regarding earnings prospects as demand remains favourable, underpinned by a lack of downsizing options for an ageing population and a customer cohort that is less exposed to financing and affordability pressures compared with other residential segments.

Rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate and the target is reduced to $5.66 from $5.84.

Target price is $5.66 Current Price is $4.59 Difference: $1.07
If GLF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.75, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates HUB as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter found the trading update from Hub24 "mildly positive". The quantum of net inflows is on an upward trajectory and ahead of expectations.

The main negative was a single institutional client outflow combined with peak pessimism in March which weighed on sentiment. The company reported $127.9bn in platform funds under management, flat compared with the prior quarter.

The broker downgrades EPS estimates slightly, by -1% for FY26 and -2% for FY27. Buy rating. Target is reduced to $110 from $120.

Target price is $110.00 Current Price is $87.50 Difference: $22.5
If HUB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $104.69, suggesting upside of 22.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HUB as Buy (1) -

Hub24's 3Q flows were softer than expected by Citi, reflecting a one-off institutional outflow and market volatility, though underlying momentum remains intact.

Lead indicators remain strong, the analysts highlight, with solid adviser additions and new distribution agreements boosting medium-term funds under administration growth.

The broker trims its FY26-FY28 profit (NPATA) forecasts by -2% due to a higher tax rate, while lower operating expense assumptions partially offset the impact of weaker revenue.

Some pressure on margins is anticipated from lower cash balances in 2H26 but Citi maintains confidence in the structural growth story.

Buy rating. Target $104.70.

Target price is $104.70 Current Price is $87.50 Difference: $17.2
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $104.69, suggesting upside of 22.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HUB as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Hub24's March quarter net inflows of $4.0bn were below Macquarie's expectation but in line with consensus, representing a strong outcome despite a one-off institutional outflow.

Funds under administration (FUA) of $127.8bn missed the broker's $129.3m forecast, reflecting weaker flows and softer markets.

The analyst highlights continued market share gains and solid underlying momentum, with minimal earnings changes.

Macquarie lifts its target to $94.50 from $92.75 but downgrades to Neutral from Outperform, citing a premium valuation relative to peers.

Target price is $94.70 Current Price is $87.50 Difference: $7.2
If HUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $104.69, suggesting upside of 22.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HUB as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley observes third quarter net inflows from Hub24 were in line, although adverse market movements weighed on funds under management.

No update to the funds outlook was provided but the broker suspects current net inflow momentum is tracking "at least in line".

The company has previously flagged its intention to internalise the Super Trustee function and now will acquire HTFS, which is the trustee of its super fund and a subsidiary of Equity Trustees ((EQT)).

Target is $126. Overweight retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $126.00 Current Price is $87.50 Difference: $38.5
If HUB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $104.69, suggesting upside of 22.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HUB as Accumulate (2) -

Hub24 provide a third quarter update that was affected by negative markets and a single one-off institutional outflow. Otherwise underlying trends are sound, Ord Minnett suggests. Underlying net profit forecasts are lowered by -3-6%.

On distribution, the number of active advisers grew by 11% with the company signing 37 new licensee agreements during the quarter.

Operating momentum is envisaged continuing with an Accumulate rating and $99 target, reduced from $112.

Target price is $99.00 Current Price is $87.50 Difference: $11.5
If HUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $104.69, suggesting upside of 22.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LOV as Buy (1) -

Citi considers Lovisa Holdings' 2H26 store rollout and US foot traffic trends, supported by proprietary store data analysis.

The broker highlights inconsistent market treatment of Jewells losses, noting its FY26 reported net income forecast of $81.2m is some -8% below consensus, and considers reported figures more comparable.

Citi points to strong execution across Northern Hemisphere markets, supporting ongoing growth momentum.

The broker sees re-rating potential if competitive pressures are addressed, while identifying Jewells as an emerging growth opportunity.

Buy retained. Target $32.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $24.71 Difference: $7.29
If LOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.35, suggesting upside of 25.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LYC as Neutral (3) -

Following yesterday's quarterly activities report by Lynas Rare Earths, Macquarie lowers its near-term earnings outlook, resulting in a -2% reduction in target price to $20.00. The Neutral rating is maintained.

The broker moderates its near-term rare earth oxide (REO) growth forecast and assumes an 8.8ktpa NdPr run- rate in 4QFY26.

A summary of the broker's initial research yesterday follows.

Macquarie's initial response is Lynas Rare Earths' 3QFY26 performance was "weak", with both REO production and sales missing expectations by -19%.

Not making matters any rosier, management has also flagged rising cost pressures.

NdPr production also missed, -8% below consensus, the broker believes, adding realised prices were largely flat QoQ despite a strengthening NdPr market, which company management has attributed to adverse product mix changes.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $19.97 Difference: $0.03
If LYC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.77, suggesting downside of -9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LYC as Equal-weight (3) -

Lynas Rare Earths delivered rare earth production of 3233t in the third quarter, largely in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations.

The issues with maintenance and power from the second quarter have been sorted, with cracking and leaching restarted in Malaysia and the Kalgoorlie/Malaysia processing normalised. Sales were also in line with expectations.

Samarium oxide production started in March, ahead of schedule, and the Malaysian licence has been renewed for 10 years. Expansion at Mount Weld is being ramped up with a focus on recoveries. Mt Weld hit 95.7% renewables, saving 870,000 litres of diesel versus FY25.

There were no disruptions from the oil crisis, although some input cost increases are expected. Equal-weight. Target is $20.45. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $20.45 Current Price is $19.97 Difference: $0.48
If LYC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.77, suggesting downside of -9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LYC as Sell (5) -

Lynas Rare Earths has plenty of revenue growth to come despite a subdued March quarter, Ord Minnett contends.  The company believes it will take another 12 months to ramp up Mount Weld and Kalgoorlie before it can get a "clean run"on NdPr capacity of 10,500tpa.

While the company is the largest ex-China rare producer in a sector that is "hot", the broker suggests all of this and more is priced into the stock.

Emerging competitors may mean the scarcity premium the business enjoys will erode over the next couple of years.

Ord Minnett suspects the price is overdone, recommending speculative REO developers instead. Sell rating and $14 target maintained.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $19.97 Difference: minus $5.97 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.77, suggesting downside of -9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LYC as Buy (1) -

Lynas' 3Q26 result disappointed UBS on weaker-than-expected production and pricing, with NdPr/REO output of US$1,996t/US$3,223t missing forecasts, and revenue of $265m impacted by a softer realised price of $85/kg, down -1% q/q despite a 42% rise in benchmark prices.

The analyst notes Mt Weld expansion and Kalgoorlie process improvements continue to limit output, although ramp-up is progressing, with a 12-month pathway to 10.5ktpa capacity, while DyTb (dysprosium and terbium) production of 26t also reflected batch variability.

FY26 forecasts EPS is downgraded by -23% and FY26 estimate down by -7%. Target slips to $23.65 from $23.90.

Strategically, the broker remains positive, highlighting progress in downstream magnet capacity in Malaysia, potential heavy rare earth clay developments, and emerging M&A signals. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $23.65 Current Price is $19.97 Difference: $3.68
If LYC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.77, suggesting downside of -9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MAF as Buy (1) -

MA Financial delivered a softer asset management performance in the first quarter, affected by market volatility that Morgans notes overshadowed robust MA Money loan book growth.

The broker downgrades FY26-FY27 estimates for EPS by -6-7% and lowers the target to $10.93 from $11.69, yet points out the business has consistently delivered in recent periods and remains well-positioned to execute "compelling" compound earnings growth.

While first quarter flows may have disappointed relative to expectations, structural growth drivers across the portfolio remain intact and Morgans retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $10.93 Current Price is $7.53 Difference: $3.4
If MAF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.18, suggesting upside of 48.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MAF as Buy (1) -

MA Financial's 1Q26 assets under management (AUM) update was weaker than expected by Ord Minnett, declining -3% quarter-on-quarter to $14.8bn due to asset sales and fewer listed fund raisings.

Despite this, underlying net flows in unlisted funds rose 9% year-on-year, reflecting solid momentum in a challenging environment, suggests the broker.

The analysts highlight strong growth across the lending platforms, with Finsure and MA Money tracking ahead of expectations.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and sets a $9.20 target, down from $10.05.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $7.53 Difference: $1.67
If MAF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.18, suggesting upside of 48.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MEI as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett views Meteoric Resources’ $40m capital raising as opportunistic, undertaken amid strong rare earth markets despite no immediate funding requirement.

Proceeds will support ongoing development activities, including the definitive feasibility study (DFS), pilot plant operations and drilling, with the company expected to hold around $62m in cash by June.

The broker notes a much larger capital raise will still be required to fund the Caldeira project if it proceeds to construction.

Commentary points to key catalysts over the next six months including completion of the DFS, securing offtake agreements and progressing toward a final investment decision (FID).

Ord Minnett retains a Speculative Buy rating and 25c target.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.08
If MEI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.32, suggesting upside of 66.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MSV as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Mitchell Services continues to show resilience, with Morgans noting EBITDA margins expanded to 23% in the third quarter, up from 11.5% in the prior corresponding period.

The balance sheet is strong, with net debt of $900,000 after absorbing the -$8.5m dividend payment made during the quarter.

There are options now for capital allocation as the company enters the fourth quarter and towards FY27, the broker adds, while upside potential remains as rig utilisation is still below 70%.

A recovery in coal prices could unlock further earnings potential with an increase in rig utilisation. Rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. The target rises to $0.55 from $0.50.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.52 Difference: $0.035
If MSV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie - Cessation of coverage

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NXT as Buy (1) -

Following yesterday's research on NextDC by Citi (see summary below), the broker's target falls by -2% to $18.60 and the Buy rating is maintained.

****

Citi views NextDC's $1.5bn equity raising, expanded hybrid issuance to $1.7bn and 250MW contract win as positive. It's felt these transactions highlight strong demand and the company's ability to secure large hyperscale deals.

The capital raise is seen as removing a funding overhang by bringing forward funding requirements. Pricing for the new contract is also stronger than the broker had expected.

Management highlighted a favourable pricing environment amid ongoing supply constraints and flagged potential for joint venture structures, alongside exploring securitisation of cash flows.

Focus is likely to shift to the return profile of the contract and whether a similar funding structure will be used for future developments, including S7, the analyst suggests.

Target price is $18.60 Current Price is $14.12 Difference: $4.48
If NXT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.74, suggesting upside of 38.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NXT as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights the largest-ever single contract win for NextDC with a 250MW customer for the S4 in Sydney. This underlines both the scale of demand and the urgency in delivery timelines.

It is a catalyst for accelerated construction plans for the site, with a total of -$5bn in capital expenditure now guided for FY27, ahead of the broker's previous estimate of -$3bn. The company has secured $2.2bn in incremental funding.

On the broker's estimates the stock trades at a 44x FY27 EV/EBITDA, a premium to US DC peers, which it considers justified by a significantly higher growth trajectory.

Target price edges down to $18 from $19. Overweight reiterated. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $14.12 Difference: $3.88
If NXT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.74, suggesting upside of 38.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PDN as Neutral (3) -

Today's 3QFY26 operational result by Paladin Energy was in line with Macquarie's expectations, with production of 1.29Mlbs U3O8, supported by improved recovery rates despite lower feed grades.

Mining activity increased, while processing performance remained strong, lifting plant recoveries above expectations, the analyst explains in a first assessment.

Costs and sales metrics were pre-reported, with FY26 cost guidance unchanged.

The ramp-up at the Langer Heinrich mine remains on track for completion by FY26, though Macquarie sees downside risk to FY27 consensus production estimates.

Macquarie retains a Neutral rating, citing prior share price strength and potential risks to forward expectations. Target $13.55. 

Target price is $13.55 Current Price is $13.61 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If PDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.95, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates REA as Buy (1) -

UBS views Seek ((SEK)) as the most exposed company to rising macro uncertainty and higher inflation after incorporating the broker's Economics and Strategy view of "stagflation light" for Australian online classifieds.

The analyst considers Seek to have more cyclical sensitivity and exposure relative to Car Group ((CAR)) and REA Group. Despite the uncertain macro backdrop, a Buy rating is retained on all three stocks.

The target price is cut by -5% to $209, largely due to a rise in the risk free rate to 4.5% from 4%. EPS forecasts are unchanged.

Target price is $209.00 Current Price is $176.44 Difference: $32.56
If REA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $214.86, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Rio Tinto’s Q1 2026 production exceeded the consensus expectation by 5%, driven by a 9% year-on-year increase in copper output, Citi explains. Management maintained production and cost guidance across commodities.

Iron ore shipments were weaker due to previously-flagged cyclone-related disruptions in the Pilbara, while aluminium and lithium were broadly in line, the broker observes. Commentary also notes gold and silver production rose strongly.

Citi highlights cost resilience in iron ore, by-product support in copper and aluminium pricing tailwinds as key positives, with Middle East-related cost pressures expected to be manageable.

Neutral. Target $170.

Target price is $170.00 Current Price is $173.86 Difference: minus $3.86 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $167.83, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

Following yesterday's March quarter operational update by Rio Tinto, Macquarie raises its target by 2% to $186.

An Outperform rating is maintained. The broker highlights aluminium price premiums for the company, across both LME and US Midwest markets, are more than offsetting increased tariff costs.

The company is benefiting from Middle East supply disruptions, which the analyst expects to persist over the next 12–24 months.

A summary of Macquarie's initial research yesterday follows.

On Macquarie's early assessment, Rio Tinto's March quarterly performance revealed a Fe (iron ore) sales miss (by some -4%); while Cu (copper) beat and aluminium sales proved in line with forecasts.

Equally important: management retained 2026 production guidance (same for costs).

All in all, the broker labels it "solid results" despite weather impacts. 

Target price is $186.00 Current Price is $173.86 Difference: $12.14
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $167.83, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

Rio Tinto delivered Pilbara shipments that were broadly in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations. Production beat estimates by 9%, which signals strong underlying mine performance. FY26 iron ore guidance is unchanged at 323-338mt.

Copper production beat expectations by 9% amid stronger-than-expected output at Oyu Tolgoi and Kennecott. Meanwhile Simandou is on track with further sales realised in April and rail commissioning achieved in the first quarter.

Equal weight rating. Target is $163. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $163.00 Current Price is $173.86 Difference: minus $10.86 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $167.83, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Accumulate (2) -

Rio Tinto delivered a solid March-quarter result, Ord Minnett suggests, with Pilbara iron ore production around 6% ahead of the consensus expectation and copper output also beating consensus by 6%.

Weather disruptions impacted bauxite, lithium and Canadian iron ore pellets, while aluminium production was in line with consensus despite a smelter ramp-down, observes the analyst.

The broker notes higher fuel and refining costs are expected to lift Pilbara unit costs, though operational strength helped offset weather challenges.

Ord Minnett's EPS forecasts are reduced across 2026-2028 to reflect higher costs. Accumulate rating and $172 target retained.

Target price is $172.00 Current Price is $173.86 Difference: minus $1.86 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $167.83, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes Rio Tinto's 1Q2026 update was broadly in line with expectations, with copper equivalent production growing 9% y/y, although softer on the prior quarter.

Management retained production and unit cost guidance for all divisions. Divisionally, Pilbara recorded its second highest 1Q production since 2018, despite two cyclones. The analyst flags unit costs to come in around US$26/t above the top end of the guidance range in 2026.

Oyu Tolgoi continues to ramp up, targeting around 500ktpa of copper by 2036 from 345kt in 2025, while the Simandou project is on track, with the mine 74% complete.

No change to Neutral rating and $160 target.

Target price is $160.00 Current Price is $173.86 Difference: minus $13.86 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $167.83, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RPL as Buy (1) -

Regal Partners provided a soft quarterly fund management update, Morgans asserts, as hedge fund investment suffered on the back of volatile market conditions.

FUM declined -3% to around $20.2bn with the key detractor being investment performance. The broker updates its numbers following a broader review of FUM expectations for 2026. EPS estimates are revised down -2% to reflect more conservative assumptions.

Morgans points out the improvement across the first 17 days of April has underpinned the ability of the business to remain consistent with its investment philosophy. Target is reduced to $4.20 from $5.00 and a Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: $1.67
If RPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 66% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.57, suggesting upside of 86.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SCG as Buy (1) -

At first look, Citi notes Scentre Group's 1Q26 update highlights solid operating momentum, with customer visitation rising 3.1% and sales increasing 5.0% to $7.0bn.

Occupancy remains elevated at 99.8%, with specialty rent escalations of up 5.3% and positive leasing spreads across 636 deals.

The broker points to active capital management, including the $864m partial divestment of Westfield Sydney and a $750m domestic senior note issuance and believes the group is well positioned to capture inflation-linked rental growth.

FFO guidance of at least 23.73cps for 2026 is maintained. Buy. Target $4.40.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.58 Difference: $0.82
If SCG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.90, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SEK as Buy (1) -

UBS views Seek as the most exposed company to rising macro uncertainty and higher inflation after incorporating the broker's Economics and Strategy view of "stagflation light" for Australian online classifieds.

The analyst considers Seek to have more cyclical sensitivity and exposure relative to Car Group ((CAR)) and REA Group ((REA)). Despite the uncertain macro backdrop, a Buy rating is retained on all three stocks.

The target price is cut by -25% to $18.20 from $24.30. EPS forecasts are lowered by -5% for FY26 and -17% for FY27.

Target price is $18.20 Current Price is $15.33 Difference: $2.87
If SEK meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.52, suggesting upside of 50.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

On first take, Citi views Treasury Wine Estates’ trading update as positive, with management confirming FY26 earnings guidance, supported by what appears to be a "favourable" stock depletions update and new debt commitments of $300m, which alleviate some balance sheet concerns.

China depletions rose 40% over Chinese New Year, with momentum retained into the end of 3Q26 due to Bin 389 and 407. Asia, ex-China experienced a 14% rise in depletions despite momentum in grey channels. US depletions rose 9.1% y/y.

The update is considered "de-risking" for the short term outlook, and the analyst upgrades the stock to Neutral from Sell. Target $4.25.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $4.05 Difference: $0.2
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.83, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Treasury Wine Estates today announced the transition to a new regional operating model as management progresses the global transformation program. The new model will be implemented from October to support growth and cross-selling opportunities.

The company reported improved 3Q depletions, with Penfolds benefiting from a shift to authorised distribution channels in China and a return to growth in the Americas, observes Macquarie in an initial assessment.

Guidance for stronger 2H26 earnings versus 1H was reaffirmed, with no material impact expected from Middle East cost pressures in FY26.

Macquarie retains a Neutral rating, noting improving trends but limited near-term visibility as inventory dynamics remain in flux.

Neutral. Target $5.30.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.05 Difference: $1.25
If TWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.83, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WOR as Accumulate (2) -

Management at Worley has flagged a -$30-$40m earnings headwind from the Middle East conflict, making it unlikely to meet prior guidance for underlying earnings growth. 

Project delays and slower contract awards are driving the impact, Ord Minnett explains, although no cancellations have been reported.

The broker sees potential medium- to long-term upside from increased infrastructure spending to improve energy security.

EPS forecasts are reduced across FY26-FY28, with the target lowered to $12.80 from $13.10.

Ord Minnett retains an Accumulate rating.

Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $11.43 Difference: $1.37
If WOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.52, suggesting upside of 24.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources