Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates A4N as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter attended Alpha HPA's site visit in Gladstone to its high purity alumina project (HPA), with construction now at stage 2 and on budget. Wet commissioning is flagged for mid-2027 and first production in 2H2027.

Some 70%-80% of customers that have signalled interest come from the semiconductor sector, as Alpha's high purity product supports and enhances greater manufacturing and computational efficiency, the analyst explains.

More offtake letters of intent are anticipated over 2026, which are expected to transition to contracts, Bell Potter highlights.

No change to Speculative Buy rating and $1.50 target price.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: $0.875
If A4N meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 140% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AUB as Initiation of coverage with Neutral (3) -

Citi initiates coverage of AUB Group with a Neutral rating and $27.30 target, citing a balance between resilient earnings growth and emerging headwinds.

The broker expects near-term earnings growth of around 7%, largely supported by acquisitions, cost synergies and internal levers, with a significant portion already embedded in forecasts.

While AI presents both risks and opportunities, the analyst feels it is more likely to augment broker models than displace them, though investor uncertainty may delay a re-rating.

The group is viewed as a high-quality, resilient business, though Citi prefers Steadfast Group ((SDF)) for its stronger growth and valuation upside.

Target price is $27.30 Current Price is $25.66 Difference: $1.64
If AUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.30, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Citi raises its target for BHP Group to $55 from $54 following last week's quarterly activities report. The Neutral rating is maintained.

A summary of the broker's initial research follows.

Citi assesses BHP Group delivered "steady" Q3 FY26 production, with copper output of 477kt in line with the consensus expectation. Iron ore shipments also broadly matched consensus despite seasonal weakness, the analysts observe.

Gold and silver by-product credits continue to support copper margins, the broker explains, contributing to an upgrade in unit cost guidance for Escondida.

While production guidance is unchanged, stronger output at Escondida and Antamina (copper/zinc in Peru) offsets weaker expectations at the Pampa Norte copper mine in Chile.

Citi expects modest FY26 earnings upgrades, driven by lower unit costs and favourable commodity price movements.

Target price is $55.00 Current Price is $56.10 Difference: minus $1.1 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $54.22, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CAR as Buy (1) -

Citi points to mixed trends in CAR Group's US Trader Interactive business, with web traffic improving, supported in part by increased referral traffic, while dealer numbers, listings and hiring activity have softened.

The Middle East conflict coincided with the start of the key selling season, resulting in a more cautious outlook from OEMs and dealers, the analysts note.

The broker trims its earnings forecasts to reflect slower dealer growth, FX headwinds and a more cautious outlook, partially offset by lower operating cost growth.

Despite near-term pressures, ongoing strategic progress is anticipated, particularly in dealer software expansion.

Citi lowers its target to $34.70 from $39.65 and maintains a Buy rating.

Target price is $34.70 Current Price is $25.79 Difference: $8.91
If CAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.90, suggesting upside of 34.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Citi notes global industry surveys place CommBank well ahead of its major bank peers on AI adoption. More broadly, it's felt technology is amplifying scale advantages and widening the gap across the sector, warranting closer investor and regulatory scrutiny.

The broker highlights growing reliance by regional banks on third-party providers to drive cost efficiencies and improve delivery, though this introduces execution risks as internal capabilities are reduced.

In Citi's view, technology-driven scale benefits are likely to further entrench the divide between the major banks and Macquarie Group ((MQG)) versus the rest of the industry over time.

The $140 target and Sell rating are maintained for CommBank.

Target price is $140.00 Current Price is $174.49 Difference: minus $34.49 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $127.04, suggesting downside of -26.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ELV as Outperform (1) -

Elevra Lithium's 3QFY26 operational result exceeded Macquarie's expectations, with production, sales and costs all outperforming consensus.

The broker highlights limited diesel exposure and access to renewable hydropower as key cost advantages relative to peers.

While realised prices disappointed due to legacy contracts and the broker's near-term earnings forecast was downgraded, a stronger performance is expected beyond FY26 as legacy contracts roll off.

Macquarie raises its target by 13% to $11.60 and maintains an Outperform rating, citing operating leverage to a recovering lithium market.

Target price is $11.60 Current Price is $12.04 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If ELV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVT as Buy (1) -

In the wake of updated guidance by EVT Ltd, Citi lowers its target by -3% to $16.40 due to lower earnings forecasts and lower peer multiples. Buy rating maintained.

A summary of the broker's initial research follows.

EVT Ltd has provided an update to guidance, forecasting FY26 EBITDA growth. At first glance Citi points out the company's guidance is now for EBITDA to be "marginally up" compared to previous guidance of "a record year".

The broker notes some headwinds in the fourth quarter were flagged, such as works at QT Queenstown and QT Gold Coast and disruptions at QT Canberra from light rail work, that should result in the top end of consensus estimates being downgraded for FY26, and possibly FY27.

The latter because there is no obvious end in sight in the short term for the Middle East war.

There was no update to the George Street sale while entertainment guidance is now for "reasonable" growth compared to prior guidance of "modest" growth.

Target price is $16.40 Current Price is $12.79 Difference: $3.61
If EVT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.70, suggesting upside of 34.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

Fortescue's 3QFY26 operational result was broadly in line with Macquarie's expectations, with costs outperforming and net debt lower than forecast.

The broker highlights emerging upside from green energy initiatives, with new renewable capacity potentially supporting a longer-term growth segment.

However, port capacity constraints and ramp-up challenges at Iron Bridge continue to weigh on the production outlook and require additional capital investment, the analyst notes.

Macquarie lowers its target by -4% to $22 and maintains an Outperform rating, citing energy optionality partly offsetting weaker production and higher capex.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $19.78 Difference: $2.22
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.69, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Underweight (5) -

Fortescue sold 48.4mt in the March quarter, slightly ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimates. FY26 guidance is unchanged for 195-205mt, although Iron Bridge guidance is cut to 9-10mt from 10-12mt after Cyclones Mitchell and Narelle disrupted production.

Total shipments were 48.4mt, down -4% a quarter but up 5% year-on-year. Realised price for haematite overall was slightly lower than Morgan Stanley estimated.

Underweight rating. Target is $19.40. Industry View In-Line.

Target price is $19.40 Current Price is $19.78 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.69, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

IGO Ltd's 3QFY26 operational result disappointed the analyst at Macquarie, with weaker production and a guidance downgrade, compounded by limited visibility on ore grades and the FY27 outlook.

Despite this, the broker continues to see value within IGO, underpinned by its exposure to the tier-one Greenbushes lithium asset. Near-term catalysts include a mine plan update at Greenbushes as well as potential copper opportunities.

Macquarie lowers its target by -3% to $9.50 and maintains an Outperform rating, citing long-term resource quality despite near-term operational volatility.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $7.01 Difference: $2.49
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.01, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Underweight (5) -

IGO Ltd has downgraded guidance at Greenbushes for FY26, cutting production to 1.375-1.425mt from 1.5-1.65mt and raising cash costs to $380-420/t from $310-360/t. This comes amid lower feed grade, lower recoveries and higher maintenance downtime.

No immediate risk to fuel supply has been identified. The ramp up of CGP3 was largely in line with expectations. The sale of Forrestania has been completed and consolidation of Copper Wolf agreed.

Morgan Stanley assesses the update strengthens its thesis and retains an Underweight rating. Target is $7.50. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.01 Difference: $0.49
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.01, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JDO as Outperform (1) -

Judo Capital's 3Q update showed strong underlying momentum, Macquarie assesses, with solid lending growth and margin performance, though rising credit costs remain a key focus.

The broker acknowledges increasing credit cycle risks, with higher provisions reflecting macro uncertainty, but notes the recent share price de-rating appears to have largely priced in these concerns.

Margins are expected to remain supported by funding tailwinds, although competition is beginning to normalise deposit spreads.

Macquarie lowers its target to $1.85 from $2.05 and maintains an Outperform rating, citing an attractive valuation and strong earnings growth profile.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.40 Difference: $0.45
If JDO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.12, suggesting upside of 47.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates M7T as Buy (1) -

Mach7 Technologies reported a downgrade to FY26 revenue guidance, with revenue now expected to be $28.6m and around -15% below FY25, as delays to sales in the Middle East are anticipated, offset by operating cost reductions.

Morgans found the optics around the downgrade rather negative but also not surprising given geopolitical tensions. Forecasts are moderated for the near term.

On a positive note, a lower operating cost base implies stronger operating leverage from FY27. Target is reduced to $0.44 from $0.76. A Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $0.44 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.16
If M7T meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCK as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes the departure of Nick Scali's Chief Operating Officer follows a recent CFO transition. The broker is not overly concerned given the central role of CEO Anthony Scali and GM Merchandise Stephanie Scali in driving performance.

While the management changes raise some longer-term succession questions, the analyst does not expect a material impact on near-term operations.

Instead, the broker remains more focused on macro headwinds, including slowing sales growth in Australia and rising cost pressures linked to the Middle East conflict.

Citi retains a Neutral rating and $19.20 target.

Target price is $19.20 Current Price is $14.93 Difference: $4.27
If NCK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.20, suggesting upside of 34.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NEM as Outperform (1) -

Newmont Corp announced 1Q2026 production of 1.3Moz, which beat Macquarie's expectations by 4% and consensus by 6%, with robust results from Yanacocha and Cadia.

AISC were also better than anticipated, lower than both the analyst's and consensus forecast by -36%, which was attributed to better costs at Penasquito with "solid" production.

The share buyback was increased by US$6bn, while the dividend remains flat at US$0.26/quarter, with around US$1.9bn buyback over the period.

Higher Brent oil prices would add to the gold producer's costs. At around US$110/bbl, that would add an estimated -US$240m to the cost base, or -US$48/oz, or circa -3% in total.

Higher royalties in Ghana have already been assumed in EPS estimates. Target price lifts 1% to $192 from $191, with no change to Outperform rating. EPS forecast rises 9% for 2026.

Target price is $192.00 Current Price is $155.59 Difference: $36.41
If NEM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $203.00, suggesting upside of 22.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NEM as Buy (1) -

Newmont Corp delivered a first quarter result that beat estimates across multiple operating and financial metrics.

Morgans assesses the result reinforces the company's position as a high-quality cash-generating gold producer with a strong balance sheet and increased capacity to return capital to shareholders. Adjusted EBITDA was US$5.2bn.

The broker finds the scale of free cash flow generation the most compelling element, highlighting operating leverage to current gold prices. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $208 from $214.

Target price is $208.00 Current Price is $155.59 Difference: $52.41
If NEM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $203.00, suggesting upside of 22.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NXL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes the Federal Court has decided in favour of Nuix regarding the legal action with ASIC.

The company is progressively working through a number of legal matters which have collectively overhung the shares and, in the broker's opinion, are the reason the shares are trading at a discount to estimates of fair value.

This Federal Court judgment is considered an important step forward as a result, although there is still a class action to resolve. The favourable ruling means a drop in legal costs and warrants a higher PE multiple, the broker adds.

Overweight retained along with a $2.50 target. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: $0.965
If NXL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PLS as Hold (3) -

PLS Group announced record quarterly spodumene concentrate production, Bell Potter highlights, with 3Q26 production of 232kt, higher than the analyst's forecast of 213kt, and sales of 196kt, which missed expectations.

Notably, higher lithium prices are helping to generate robust cash flow and earnings, the analyst explains, with free cash flow of around $375m over the period.

Unit costs fell -11% q/q and were below forecasts, but in the June quarter the broker flags a rise in costs with the restarts of Ngungaju plant.

The lithium producer settled a US$600m Senior Unsecured Notes issue at 6.875% due 2031.

Target price is lifted to $5.50 from $4.60. No change to Hold rating. EPS forecasts are raised by 32% for FY26 and 43% for FY27.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.77 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.54, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie raises its target for PLS Group by 13% to $6.20 and maintains an Outperform rating.

Management delivered a "solid" 3QFY26, in the analyst's view, with production and costs beating expectations, partially offset by weaker sales due to shipment timing.

The broker highlights early signs of acceleration in the P2000 project, with potential pre-financial investment decision (FID) spending flagged for FY27.

While risks remain around lithium hydroxide plant utilisation, operational performance and pricing are seen as broadly supportive.

Macquarie points to growth upside for PLS Group from P2000, the proposed major expansion project at its Pilgangoora lithium operation.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $5.77 Difference: $0.43
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.54, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PLS as Equal-weight (3) -

PLS Group delivered a "good" production outcome in the March quarter, Morgan Stanley observes, amid improved plant reliability, higher runtime and stable recoveries.

Capitalised waste stripping and volumes helped lower costs to $520/t. No material operating impact from diesel pressures is expected. FY26 guidance was reaffirmed across all metrics. Equal-weight rating and $5.25 target retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $5.77 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.54, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PLS as Downgrade to Trim from Hold (4) -

PLS Group delivered record production, which was well ahead of expectations amid record spodumene production of 230,000t, driven by improved plant reliability, high utilisation and strong recoveries.

Morgans found the key theme in the quarter was the scale of execution as the Pilgan plant continued to demonstrate reliability following the P1000 expansion. Benefits from the expansion are expected to continue being realised over subsequent quarters.

The re-start of the Ngungaju plant is expected to marginally increase unit costs yet current spodumene pricing remains highly supportive, the broker adds.

Rating is downgraded to Trim from Hold, reflecting the stock trading close to fair value. Target is raised to $5.40 from $4.60.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.77 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.54, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates QOR as Buy (1) -

Qoria has reiterated FY26 guidance for revenue of over $145m and an adjusted EBITDA margin of more than 20% on a constant currency basis.

The quarterly outcomes were below Bell Potter's forecast, while the positive aspect was record growth for Qustodio in what was meant to be a seasonally weak quarter for the consumer business.

The broker reduces the multiple applied in the EV/revenue valuation and increases the weighted average cost of capital.

The net result is a -18% decrease in the target to $0.50 from $0.60; this being close to double the share price means a Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.24
If QOR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 92% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RRL as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Regis Resources produced 90,600 ounces of gold in the March quarter and sold 89,100 ounces at an AISC of $2807, which beat Morgans' forecasts and was in line with guidance. FY26 gold sales of 370,000 ounces are now modelled.

Earnings appear robust and continue to highlight the company as a high-quality leveraged play for gold exposure, the broker adds.

Rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold following recent weakness in the gold sector which Morgans believes has uncovered value in the stock. Target edges up to $10.07 from $10.03.

Target price is $10.07 Current Price is $7.35 Difference: $2.72
If RRL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.85, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

Citi highlights Suncorp Group's introduction of five-year aggregate reinsurance cover as a key step in reducing earnings volatility, with the cost broadly offset and no impact on underlying margins.

The arrangement caps annual natural hazard losses above a threshold, improving downside protection and enabling a modest ($100m) capital release, the analysts explain.

While top-line growth is impacted by New Zealand gross written premium (GWP) disappointment and FX movements, the broker notes more favourable hazard experience expected in 2H26.

Citi retains a Neutral rating and raises its target to $17.50 from $16.75, reflecting reduced earnings volatility and updated assumptions.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $17.05 Difference: $0.45
If SUN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.68, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley assesses Suncorp Group's aggregate reinsurance cover for five years is up to $800m per annum, which materially reduces earnings volatility and cost of capital and should drive a 3-4x PE re-rating.

The cover releases $100m of capital via a lower target and the company calculates the economic costs will be broadly neutral. The broker understands the aggregate cover was placed with a single reinsurer.

FY26 gross written premium growth has also been affected by an improved risk mix in the home segment.

Overweight rating and $21.60 target are maintained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $21.60 Current Price is $17.05 Difference: $4.55
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.68, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources