Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates 360 as Buy (1) -

Potential catalysts for Life360 include the upcoming March Q update where Bell Potter sees a reasonable chance of a small beat but little prospect of an upgrade to the 2026 guidance.

A larger potential catalyst, however, is the June Q result in August if the company can show strong monthly active user growth and support the full year guidance of 20% growth.

The June result is probably also the earliest the company could upgrade the full year guidance, Bell Potter suggests, but given the second half skew this year, this is perhaps more likely at the Sep Q result.

Buy and $35.50 target retained.

Target price is $35.50 Current Price is $19.84 Difference: $15.66
If 360 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.36, suggesting upside of 62.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AGL as Neutral (3) -

At the Macquarie-hosted conference AGL Energy has narrowed and lifted the mid point of FY26 guidance for underlying EBITDA, now at $2.06-2.18bn compared with $2.02-2.18bn previously. Underlying net profit has been narrowed to $610-$680m from $580-680m.

The company remains positive about the volatility outlook for power prices, expecting pricing will be stronger and reflecting underlying system demand.

Macquarie remains cautious, suspecting this expectation could be pushed out to FY29, when Yallourn and Eraring retire.

Neutral rating and $9.34 target maintained.

Target price is $9.34 Current Price is $9.47 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.87, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALX as Neutral (3) -

Atlas Arteria's board has rejected IFM's offer. Citi warns investors should the bid fail, the share price will tank.

Not their exact choice of words, but you get the drift. In case of failure, IFM is expected to remain a significant shareholder (plus it can always return with a more acceptable offer in twelve months' time).

Neutral rating. Target $4.80.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.82 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If ALX meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.67, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AMC as Equal-weight (3) -

In a first look, Morgan Stanley notes Amcor's March Q earnings were 1% ahead of consensus but FY26 guidance is lowered -2%, with volumes down -1.5% year on year.

FY26 free cash flow guidance is cut to US$1.5-1.6bn (was US$1.8-1.9bn), reflecting higher inventory at higher costs. The FY26 leverage target is now 3.4–3.5x (was 3.1–3.2x) and portfolio optimisation continues.

Equal-weight and $62.86 target retained. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $62.86 Current Price is $52.70 Difference: $10.16
If AMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $72.78, suggesting upside of 33.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMP as Outperform (1) -

At the Macquarie-hosted conference, AMP reiterated it was intent on building momentum in its existing divisions, not including M&A.

Management has witnessed consistent flows on its platform with the next step being to show operating leverage.

After "cleaning up capital", the focus will be on repairing the bank segment rather than selling it. The core thesis is releasing capital from the bank to improve returns.

Macquarie looks for stabilisation in the underlying business and at current valuations retains an Outperform rating with a $1.94 target.

Target price is $1.94 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.415
If AMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.79, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AOV as Buy (1) -

Citi is pleased with Amotiv management re-iterating FY26 guidance with the added security that, thus far, year-to-date, revenues are tracking only slightly below consensus projection of 3.8% growth for the fiscal year (at 3.6%).

Citi does express its concern about risks building for FY27.

Buy rating and $9.30 target for Amotiv.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $6.36 Difference: $2.94
If AOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.04, suggesting upside of 53.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AOV as Buy (1) -

Amotiv's trading update for 3Q26 was viewed positively by UBS as management also retained guidance for 2H26 despite the Middle East challenges.

The company reported financial YTD 3Q26 group revenue growth of 3.6%, slightly below consensus expectations of 4.0%.

Management noted continued weakness in 4WD new vehicle sales, while light product domestic reseller demand remained subdued despite record sales growth across the US and Europe in 2H26.

Powertrain and undercare wear and repair categories remained resilient, although some softening was observed in forward order books.

Management highlighted manageable impacts from Middle East disruption, with sea freight cost pressures partly offset by domestic freight contracts, while steel price increases are expected to impact FY27.

FY26 guidance was reiterated, including underlying EBITA of around $195m, with 1H26 and 2H26 underlying earnings (EBITA) expected to be broadly balanced.

Buy rated. Target $11.40.

Target price is $11.40 Current Price is $6.36 Difference: $5.04
If AOV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.04, suggesting upside of 53.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates APE as Buy (1) -

Morgans revises forecasts for Eagers Automotive to reflect an eight-month CanadaOne contribution, slightly moderating revenue and margin expectations and slightly raising net finance cost assumptions amid interest-rate hikes.

The broker observes industry new vehicle sales were up 2% in April, as OEM volatility is heightened and NEV adoption continues to strengthen, now around 26% of sales.

The broker believes dealers with strong exposure to leading NEV providers such as Eagers Automotive, via BYD, will continue to benefit from ongoing market disruption.

FY26 and FY27 estimates for EPS are lowered by -5.9% and -5.3%, respectively. Target drops to $30.00 from $31.80. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $23.46 Difference: $6.54
If APE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.26, suggesting upside of 26.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

At the annual Macquarie conference, Aurizon Holdings reiterated guidance despite the higher fuel costs.

Notably, recovery from a slightly worse than average cyclone season was achieved due to preventive maintenance.

Demand for Qld coal remains robust, particularly from Indian steel making, but management pointed to volumes being affected by uncertainty over the state's royalty regime.

The Whitehaven Coal ((WHC)) contract expiry is being managed and containerised freight is progressing to breakeven for FY27.

Neutral. Target $3.91.

Target price is $3.91 Current Price is $4.14 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.63, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BGL as Buy (1) -

UBS notes recent M&A activity has increased sector attention, but weaker gold prices, rising US inflation and interest rate expectations, alongside higher operating costs, are creating near-term headwinds.

The broker expects continued strong free cash flow generation to support ASX gold sector valuations. At this stage market expectations for FY27 are likely to moderate as inflationary pressures and Middle East impacts continue flowing through the sector.

UBS forecasts FY27 gold prices at $7,200/oz, above current spot levels near $6,400/oz, while also expecting industry AISC and growth capex assumptions to rise further as inflationary pressures persist.

Bellevue Gold is Buy rated with a lower target of $2 from $2.05.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.56 Difference: $0.445
If BGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.12, suggesting upside of 33.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BLX as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett lowers forecasts for Beacon Lighting to take into account retail trading conditions going forward.

After three consecutive interest-rate hikes and weakening consumer confidence, amid rising energy prices, discretionary retail expenditure is expected to be hampered.

With the operating cost base growing at 4-5%, it means any softening in sales for the company will place further pressure on margins.

When consumer confidence in housing activity turns around, the broker believes the business will be well placed to capture the upside.

Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $2.30 from $3.20.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.57 Difference: $0.73
If BLX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.60, suggesting upside of 61.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BPT as Underweight (5) -

Macquarie hosted Beach Energy at its annual conference. Company management highlighted the Waitsia plant has reached full capacity of 250TJ/day on 28 April.

Management explained they intend to concentrate on delivering on projects below a breakeven target of $10/GJ, which is aimed at preserving returns against market intervention for the East Coast gas market.

A final investment decision is expected for Otway for 1H27. The analyst notes a successful case could achieve gas from 1H29.

Rising demand from data centres and AI is expected on the East Coast with Beach positioning for that growth. In 1H26, 100% of its east coast gas production went to domestic customers.

The broker views the company's performance as disappointing and retains an Underweight rating. Target $0.78.

Target price is $0.78 Current Price is $1.13 Difference: minus $0.345 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.11, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BWP as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

On the back of BWP Trust announcing an accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer to raise around $228m at $3.77 or a -4.3% discount to the closing price on May 5, Macquarie views the raising as "opportunistic".

The stock is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform with an unchanged target of $3.90.

Pro forma gearing will move to around 20% with $550m of debt capacity available enabling the trust to actively pursue acquisition opportunities, the analyst states.

FY26 guidance was reiterated for DPS of 19.41c and the business is performing ahead of prior expectations and unchanged against February.

EPS forecasts are tweaked.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.94 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If BWP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.97, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CTM as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett notes a series of supply-side shocks in the nickel industry in 2026, with around -160,000 tonnes of high-purity battery grade product lost to the market via lower production quotas and higher government benchmark prices in Indonesia.

Ord Minnett raises nickel price forecasts to US$8.78/lb in 2026 and US$8.75/lb in 2027, equating to increases of 11% and 8%, respectively.

In reaction to the Indonesian government cutting production quotas and the Middle East war disruptions, China's Huafei has cut its production in Indonesia by 50%.

For Centaurus Metals, the broker downgrades to Hold from Accumulate, retaining a $0.60 target.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.61 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If CTM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DBI as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Morgans observes the share price of Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure has increased around 17% since it upgraded the rating in March and so downgrades to Hold from Buy. The 12-month potential return has compressed to around 3%.

The broker also takes the opportunity to update its 10-year Australian government bond yield and long-term swap rate assumptions. The company raised $350m in five-year debt at a fixed coupon of 6.234% in March, a larger raising at a cheaper price than had been assumed.

The AGM is set for May 20 when Morgans expects guidance on distributions for 2026/27 will be provided. Target edges down to $5.31 from $5.35.

Target price is $5.31 Current Price is $5.43 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If DBI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.64, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DGT as Buy (1) -

DigiCo Infrastructure REIT announced the sale of its Chicago data centre for US$750m, a 5% premium to the 2024 purchase price, on a 5.8% passing yield, and FY26 guidance for A$125m earnings is reiterated, in line with Bell Potter.

The announcement is a clear positive, Bell Potter suggests, in removing balance sheet overhang given the substantial level of debt, risk from increasing marginal cost of debt, and ability to fund its SYD1 development expansion.

This is DigiCo's best use of capital in Bell Potter's view given company-stated 15% incremental yield on cost. Target rises to $3.40 from $3.30, Buy retained.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $0.45
If DGT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.56, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DGT as Buy (1) -

DigiCo Infrastructure REIT will divest its Chicago asset at a 5% premium to the purchase price and is also investigating disposing of the LAX development sites.

The company has reiterated FY26 guidance along with the sale notice, which Morgans flags as positive as it removes leverage concerns and provides a path to repositioning SYD1.

Management has also alluded to improved earnings through FY27 and subsequently higher dividends. Morgans retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $3.60 from $2.70, removing some risk factors.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $0.65
If DGT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.56, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DGT as Buy (1) -

UBS views DigiCo Infrastructure REIT's US$750m sale of CHI1 at a premium of 5%-plus to the acquisition cost as positive.

The funds generated can be redeployed to assist with SYD1, which is considered as offering better returns while alleviating funding concerns. The sale is expected to close in 1Q27.

Net gearing is flagged to fall to around $0.5bn, boosting available liquidity the analyst states to $0.9bn or 17% from 36% net gearing prior to the sale.

Management reiterated FY26 guidance for earnings (EBITDA) of $125m and US asset sales are anticipated to be very accretive from FY27, including options to realise value on the LAX1 and LAX2 sites.

Target $4.20. Buy.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $1.25
If DGT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.56, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes recent M&A activity has increased sector attention, but weaker gold prices, rising US inflation and interest rate expectations, alongside higher operating costs, are creating near-term headwinds.

The broker expects continued strong free cash flow generation to support ASX gold sector valuations. At this stage, market expectations for FY27 are likely to moderate as inflationary pressures and Middle East impacts continue flowing through the sector.

UBS forecasts FY27 gold prices at $7,200/oz, above current spot levels near $6,400/oz, while also expecting industry AISC and growth capex assumptions to rise further as inflationary pressures persist.

Target price for Evolution Mining is lowered to $13.20. Neutral rated.

Target price is $13.20 Current Price is $12.32 Difference: $0.88
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.74, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FBU as Underperform (5) -

Fletcher Building management reinforced at the Macquarie annual conference the company is being strategically refocused to a building materials manufacturer and distributor.

The broker reports management was surprised by the absence of a stock re-rating post the sale of the construction division.

The residential sale process is ongoing and failure to complete could see the business transition to a volume house builder and exit development.

A more decentralised management system has been put in place to give more responsibility to general management. Australian volumes are performing better than NZ, notably in Qld and WA.

Target falls to NZ$1.65 from NZ$1.73. Underperform rating retained.

Current Price is $2.38. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.76, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GPT as Buy (1) -

GPT Group reconfirmed FY26 FFO guidance growth of 4% with UBS observing there were no significant surprises in the update.

Retail occupancy has slipped to 99.7% from 99.8% in 1H26, while moving annual turnover growth rose to 4.5% over 1H26 of 4.2%, although there was some slowdown for speciality over the 1Q26.

Office occupancy came down marginally to 92.2%. Rouse Hill is on schedule for completion in 4Q2026.

The broker notes GPT is trading at a discount of -14% to Dec 2025 NTA which attributes no value to the funds under management platform which is producing annualised earnings (EBIT) of circa $100m.

Buy rated with a $5.40 target.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.77 Difference: $0.63
If GPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.44, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GTK as Equal-weight (3) -

Gentrack Group has materially downgraded guidance ahead of its first half results.

The range of outcomes remains wide, Morgan Stanley notes, and material new contracts and G2 traction underpin a compelling bull case, but contract losses, lack of reference customers, and pipeline uncertainty suggest scope for further deleverage.

Morgan Stanley cuts earnings estimates -66%, -51% and 48% across FY26-28 and its price target to $3.35 from $7.70. The broker continues to see diverging scenarios, with ongoing questions around earnings durability, and competitive pressures.

Equal-weight retained. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $3.08 Difference: $0.27
If GTK meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting upside of 54.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HMC as Equal-weight (3) -

HMC Capital is simplifying its business by scrapping its HMCCP (Private Equity) platform and winding up StratCap. HMCCP1 was only $0.5bn of reported $19.5bn assets under management, Morgan Stanley notes, but it has attracted attention due to its recent soft performance.

At its Digital Infra platform, the Chicago data centre has been divested for US$750m and proceeds will be used to fund the A$1bn SYD1 expansion.

Equal-weight and $2.80 target retained. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If HMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HMC as Buy (1) -

At HMC Capital's trading update management highlighted a transition to a more simple business model which alleviates an obstacle for investor interest in the stock, according to UBS.

From FY27, the analyst points to a "cleaner" version of operating earnings, which doesn't include mark-to-market gains and should lift the stock's rating.

Other positives include resuming HealthCo REIT ((HCW)) distributions, circa $15m in cost savings annually as well as a lift in distributions and capital management.

Management has reiterated pre-tax EPS guidance circa just over 40c.

UBS retains a Buy rating and $3.70 target.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $0.75
If HMC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IFT as Buy (1) -

In a follow up to yesterday's announcement outlined below, Citi upgrades Infratil's target price to $12.87 from $12.34. Buy rated.

***

Following up on the subsequent conference call with management at Infratil (see the news below), Citi analysts report it was reiterated there is no need for a capital raising.

More CDC announcements should be expected when Infratil reports its financial result on May 26.

Management also highlighted mid-teens overall returns from its CDC investment, while development returns are higher.

Earlier Citi responded as follows:

Citi highlights Infratil announced the CDC business, of which it owns around a 50% stake, has achieved Australia's largest data center contract at 555MW which takes contracted capacity to over 1GW.

The analyst observes the contract is with a US-based high-end investment customer for 10-years with renewal options of up to 20-years. Capacity is expected to come on stream over FY28-FY29.

Debt funding is expected to be used with no equity raisings for Infratil anticipated. Citi sees upside to earnings (EBITDA) forecasts.

Citi retains a Buy rating and $12.34 target.

Target price is $12.87 Current Price is $12.07 Difference: $0.8
If IFT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.09, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IFT as Outperform (1) -

Infratil provided more colour about the domestic market at Macquarie's annual conference just after its new contract announcement detailed below.

Australia has only 1.5% of data centres on the transmission line. There are around 2-year grid connection delays in some local parts of the market.

In the US there is around a 6-year delay on grid connection and the off-grid infrastructure capacity is already allocated.

Macquarie highlights that Australia is very well positioned for US hyperscalers looking to serve growing domestic demand internationally as part of the Five Eyes Security Council and AUKUS Treaty.

Outperform. Target NZ$13.63.

****

Infratil has announced that CDC Data Centres, in which it holds a 49.7% interest, has signed a 555MW contract with a US customer. The 10-year contract represents the largest data centre contract signed in Australia and 40% of the total existing operating capacity in the country.

New FY27 capital expenditure guidance of NZ$4bn is up from NZ$2bn in FY26.

Macquarie assesses there are a number of positive catalysts in the wind and maintains an Outperform rating and NZ$13.63 target.

Current Price is $12.07. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $12.09, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IFT as Overweight (1) -

Infratil's 49.7%-owned CDC has secured the largest data centre contract in Australian history – a 555MW, 30-year deal (including a 20-year renewal option). As a result, CDC's contracted capacity now exceeds 1GW.

CDC's earnings guidance is now in excess of $1bn in FY28, compared to Morgan Stanley's prior forecast of $890m. CDC believes $2bn is reachable once this new contract is fully deployed, and notes it does not require additional equity to fund construction.

Core to Morgan Stanley's positive Infratil thesis is a belief that consensus underestimates the structural growth in demand for cloud services, computing power, and AI models over the next 1-3 years.

Overweight retained, target rises to NZ$16.60 from NZ$14.55. Industry view: Attractive.

Current Price is $12.07. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $12.09, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IFT as Buy (1) -

UBS details how Infratil had decoupled from the CDC valuation earlier in 2026 to a valuation gap of over -NZ$2bn.

Post the CDC announcement of a 30-year contract with a large US hyperscaler for 555MW, the valuation gap has shrunk to less than -NZ$2bn.

The current share price around NZ$14.55 infers the Infratil stake is valued around NZ$9bn, which aligns with the independent valuation but sits -15% below the analyst's updated valuation of NZ$10.7bn.

The broker believes the market is not fully appreciating the 'Densification Dividend' that CDC should be able to generate over the next five years.

Further contract announcements are flagged at FY26 results on May 26. Buy rated. Target lifts to NZ$16.50.

Current Price is $12.07. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $12.09, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IGO as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ord Minnett notes a series of supply-side shocks in the nickel industry in 2026, with around -160,000 tonnes of high-purity battery grade product lost to the market via lower production quotas and higher government benchmark prices in Indonesia.

Ord Minnett raises nickel price forecasts to US$8.78/lb in 2026 and US$8.75/lb in 2027, equating to increases of 11% and 8%, respectively.

In reaction to the Indonesian government cutting production quotas and the Middle East war disruptions, China's Huafei has cut its production in Indonesia by 50%.

For IGO Ltd, the broker downgrades to Accumulate from Buy, retaining a $9 target.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.08 Difference: $0.92
If IGO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.88, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IMD as Buy (1) -

Imdex's business update was headlined by quarterly revenue of $123m, slightly ahead of Bell Potter, up 23% year on year, and a bullish outlook.

Management outlined that market feedback is guiding to 15-20% growth in 2026 exploration budgets and that favourable government policies are supportive of exploration activity expansion.

With greater junior exploration activity, as a record wave of recently raised equity is increasingly deployed, Imdex is well positioned to deliver strong revenue growth and operating leverage over the next twelve months, Bell Potter believes.

Buy retained, target rises to $5.10 from $4.60.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.43 Difference: $0.67
If IMD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.90, suggesting upside of 24.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IMD as Buy (1) -

Morgans found the third quarter update from Imdex strong, amid constant FX organic revenue growth of 26%, and for FY27-FY28 increases earnings forecasts on confirmation of strong volume growth and recent capital market activity.

The broker assesses outer-year upgrades will be the key driver of the share price from now, pointing out consensus revenue estimates are "muddled" because of the recent break-even acquisitions and setting aside the update would be broadly in line with expectations.

Buy rating retained with the target lifted to $5.00 from $4.70.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.43 Difference: $0.57
If IMD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.90, suggesting upside of 24.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IMD as Buy (1) -

UBS remains upbeat on Imdex and the ongoing generation of double digit revenue growth in 4Q26 post the robust March quarter trading update.

Elevated exploration activity, growing penetration of customer spending and increasing contribution from higher-margin Digital offerings should underpin a strong run into fiscal year end.

FY26 revenue is forecast at $518m, implying 24% 4Q growth on the prior corresponding period, despite ongoing foreign exchange headwinds, while FY27 revenue is projected to rise to $602m as junior exploration activity recovers further.

The analyst expects 2H26 margins to soften modestly due to acquisition integration costs and investment spending, although views current margin levels as a likely floor given the stronger growth trajectory of sensors and Digital products.

EBITDA margins are forecast to improve progressively through FY27 and FY28, with upside risk to forecasts if higher-margin product growth continues to accelerate.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $5.15 from $4.70. UBS points to strong exploration trends, expanding technology adoption and Imdex's market leadership position.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $4.43 Difference: $0.72
If IMD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.90, suggesting upside of 24.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates JBH as Buy (1) -

JB Hi-Fi's March Q sales update saw JBH Australia (71% of earnings) broadly tracking to Bell Potter's forecast, while JBH New Zealand's sales trend saw some easing as did The Good Guys.

While Bell Potter estimates the March Q to be the smallest contributor to the full year, the broker reiterates the significance of the seasonal June Q as the second largest and JB Hi-Fi is facing challenging comparables with the incremental benefit from Nintendo Switch 2 launch in the prior year.

While the broker expects the overall Discretionary sector to remain challenged through 2026, a preference for JB Hi-Fi is supported by a view as semi-discretionary characteristics seen in the name and ability to maintain market share over a longer term versus smaller competitors.

Target falls to $87 from $90, Buy retained.

Target price is $87.00 Current Price is $72.98 Difference: $14.02
If JBH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $86.66, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JBH as Buy (1) -

Following on from yesterday's assessment, Citi analysts note while the overall retail environment has become more competitive, and thus more uncertain, so far things are progressing in line with their updated outlook for consumer spending in Australia.

They do not anticipate much changes taking place when it comes to consensus forecasts for JB Hi-Fi.

Yesterday's response:

In a flash update, Citi points to no surprises for JB Hi-Fi's 3Q26 trading update which was broadly in line with consensus and 2H26 expectations.

JB Hi-Fi Australia's like-for-like sales growth of 2.6% aligned with the January 2.4% growth and the analyst's 2H26 estimate of 2.5% growth.

The Good Guys like-for-like sales were also as expected at 2.5% growth while JB Hi-Fi NZ's like-for-like sales growth slipped to 15.2% from 16.7% in the January trading update.

Cost rises were noted by suppliers while the retail backdrop remains uncertain and competitively challenging. Citi does not expect "material" earnings changes compared to consensus forecasts.

For JB Hi-Fi, target of $85. Buy.

Target price is $85.00 Current Price is $72.98 Difference: $12.02
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $86.66, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JBH as Underweight (5) -

JB Hi-Fi reported March Q sales growth of 2.6%, a slight acceleration on the 2.4% February trading update, but tracking below consensus, Morgan Stanley notes.

The Good Guys' sales rose 2.5%, a slight deceleration versus 2.7% at the February trading update but tracking in-line with consensus.

Management noted that "In the technology categories we are seeing significant supplier component related cost increases and stock availability shortages, along with heightened competitive activity".

Morgan Stanley maintains Underweight on anticipated margin pressure from significant PC category inflation, compounded by a weakening consumer outlook. Target unchanged at $70.70. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $70.70 Current Price is $72.98 Difference: minus $2.28 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $86.66, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JBH as Accumulate (2) -

JB Hi-Fi provided a "solid" third quarter sales trading update, Morgans asserts, amid resilience in demand for its products. Management has indicated it is pleased with the sales momentum in both JB Hi-Fi and The Good Guys in an increasingly uncertain retail environment.

The company did note there were significant supplier-related cost increases and shortages of stock in the tech category, along with heightened competition.

Morgans considers this a "cautionary" note and expects some pressure on margins. Accumulate retained. Target is reduced to $82.90 from $83.50.

Target price is $82.90 Current Price is $72.98 Difference: $9.92
If JBH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $86.66, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JBH as Buy (1) -

UBS explains JB Hi-Fi announced Feb and March sales which aligned with January. JB Australia total sales grew 4%, JB NZ up 23.2% and The Good Guys rose 2.5% y/y.

Management pointed to supplier component related cost rises in technology, such as memory chips which will underpin inflation at some point. Stock availability issues were also noted including Apple iPhones.

The analyst views this issue as "temporary" and believes JB Australia revenue growth will be resilient with a growing TAM and market share gains.

Target price is tweaked lower to $85 from $88 with a Buy rating. EPS forecasts are also tweaked slightly lower.

Target price is $85.00 Current Price is $72.98 Difference: $12.02
If JBH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $86.66, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LNW as Buy (1) -

At first glance, Citi points to a 1Q26 earnings miss for Light & Wonder with adj earnings (AEBITDA) coming in -5% below expectations and -4% lower than consensus at 5% y/y growth.

Revenue missed the analyst's forecast by -2% while Gaming was in line. Grover added 660 units and international unit shipment sales fell to 2,176 from 4,001 a year earlier on timing issues.

SciPlay missed with adj earnings (AEBITDA) of -$66m below $75m estimate while corporate costs were higher.

Management offered 2026 earnings growth outlook of mid to high single digit with a better performance expected in 2H2026. A combination of US tariffs, changes to UK iGaming tax rates, strategic investments and legacy costs are flagged to impact earnings by -$70m.

The stock is expected to trade lower.

Buy. Target $160.

Target price is $160.00 Current Price is $112.00 Difference: $48
If LNW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $195.50, suggesting upside of 90.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MFG as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie notes Magellan Financial has announced the transfer of investment responsibilities for two global funds to Vinva (FUM of $5.3bn).

Management fee for the two funds is expected to decline to 89bps from 135bps, with Vinva eligible for a 34bps sub advisory fee.

The analyst estimates a -11% FY27 EPS headwind and an additional -6% headwind if around 50% of FUM transferred to Vinva is redeemed.

EPS forecasts are lowered by -12.3% for FY27 and -14.8% for FY28. Target price is downgraded by -10% to $7.65 from $8.50.

No change in Underperform rating.

Target price is $7.65 Current Price is $8.77 Difference: minus $1.12 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.69, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MI6 as Buy (1) -

UBS notes recent M&A activity has increased sector attention, but weaker gold prices, rising US inflation and interest rate expectations, alongside higher operating costs, are creating near-term headwinds.

The broker expects continued strong free cash flow generation to support ASX gold sector valuations. At this stage market expectations for FY27 are likely to moderate as inflationary pressures and Middle East impacts continue flowing through the sector.

UBS forecasts FY27 gold prices at $7,200/oz, above current spot levels near $6,400/oz, while also expecting industry AISC and growth capex assumptions to rise further as inflationary pressures persist.

Target price for Minerals 260 is lowered to $1.10 from $1.20. Buy rated.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.76 Difference: $0.34
If MI6 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.16, suggesting upside of 55.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MMS as Buy (1) -

New novated sales growth continues to accelerate, despite challenging comparables, and Bell Potter was surprised about the momentum and improving run-rate.

McMillan Shakespeare delivered March Q new vehicle lease growth of 7% year on year, which is supported by continued customer wins and an increasing shift towards EVs.

The Fringe Benefits Tax exemption will run on favourable terms, and Bell Potter views guidance for earnings growth as de-risked. Further details on broadening demand, and increasing automation, would be another catalyst for the share price.

Buy retained, target rises to $19.90 from $18.50.

Target price is $19.90 Current Price is $17.65 Difference: $2.25
If MMS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.80, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MMS as Overweight (1) -

McMillan Shakespeare's new novated sales rose 7.3% year on year in the March Q, strong in absolute terms in Morgan Stanley's view, and also an acceleration from 3.7% the first half.

Strength in new novated sales came despite a higher hurdle last year after a contract loss and roll-offs, implying demand resilience across both existing customers as well as positive new customer adds, Morgan Stanley suggests.

Overweight and $19.00 target retained. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $17.65 Difference: $1.35
If MMS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.80, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NIC as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes a series of supply-side shocks in the nickel industry in 2026, with around -160,000 tonnes of high-purity battery grade product lost to the market via lower production quotas and higher government benchmark prices in Indonesia.

Ord Minnett raises nickel price forecasts to US$8.78/lb in 2026 and US$8.75/lb in 2027, equating to increases of 11% and 8%, respectively.

In reaction to the Indonesian government cutting production quotas and the Middle East war disruptions, China's Huafei has cut its production in Indonesia by 50%.

The main impact on companies in the broker's coverage is on Nickel Industries, which is the only pure-play producer.

EPS estimates in forecasts are upgraded by 20–50% with the target rising to $2.00 from $1.95 because of different Indonesian taxation rates between the mining division and processing arm. Buy rating.

Current Price is $1.05. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.33, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates OBM as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes recent M&A activity has increased sector attention, but weaker gold prices, rising US inflation and interest rate expectations, alongside higher operating costs, are creating near-term headwinds.

The broker expects continued strong free cash flow generation to support ASX gold sector valuations. At this stage, market expectations for FY27 are likely to moderate as inflationary pressures and Middle East impacts continue flowing through the sector.

UBS forecasts FY27 gold prices at $7,200/oz, above current spot levels near $6,400/oz, while also expecting industry AISC and growth capex assumptions to rise further as inflationary pressures persist.

Target price on Ora Banda Mining is lowered to $1.40 from $1.50. Neutral rated.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.125
If OBM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.87, suggesting upside of 40.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Neutral (3) -

At the Macquarie-hosted conference, Origin Energy signalled Octopus continues to win market share despite other operators also using the Kraken platform. The business is still growing at around 50,000 customers a month in the UK.

The broker also highlights the business is now the largest pure EV fleet in the UK and expected to be a top-10 leasing company by fleet size within the next year. EBITDA break-even is projected "soon".

Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and $11.25 target.

Target price is $11.25 Current Price is $11.96 Difference: minus $0.71 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.07, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORI as Buy (1) -

In a quick update, Citi notes Orica announced 1H26 earnings of $512m which came in some circa 3% above consensus and up 5% y/y.

On a qualitative basis, the analyst considers the result as better than the March update, thereby implying a "solid" year end exit rate.

Breaking down the divisional performance, blasting was around 2% better with improvement coming from value added from premium products offsetting lower coal production from Indonesia.

Digital solutions was also a slight beat by around 3% with robust adoption underpinning growth. Specialty minerals was a circa 5% beat.

Citi highlights "significant" below the line items. Buy rated with a $25.05 target.

Target price is $25.05 Current Price is $20.92 Difference: $4.13
If ORI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.19, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORI as Buy (1) -

UBS observes, at first glance, Orica announced 1H26 earnings (EBIT) 3% ahead of consensus, with growth across all operating segments supporting reiterated FY26 guidance for earnings (EBIT) growth across all regions and divisions.

Blasting Solutions was flat as stronger demand for premium products and blasting technologies offset weaker Indonesian coal production quotas.

Digital Solutions and Mining Chemicals delivered double-digit earnings (EBIT) growth supported by elevated exploration activity and robust gold and copper markets.

Management highlighted progress securing diversified long-term ammonium nitrate supply in North America following the CF Industries offtake termination, with tight global AN markets expected to support future pricing.

UBS described the result as solid given the uncertain operating backdrop, noting no immediate material impacts from Middle East conflict disruption and leverage remaining within the target range.

Buy. Target $27.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $20.92 Difference: $6.08
If ORI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.19, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PNI as Buy (1) -

Morgans highlights flows were stronger than expected in the third quarter update from Pinnacle Investment Management, amid a volatile environment. The additional 6.8% investment in Metrics was also a vote of confidence in the business.

The decision to increase its stake is a tangible expression of management's conviction in the Metrics franchise, the broker explains, given heightened investor scrutiny of private credit.

The share price has been under pressure amid a more difficult market environment yet Morgans is bullish on the long-term growth trajectory and retains a Buy rating, raising the target to $24.70 from $23.21.

Target price is $24.70 Current Price is $16.36 Difference: $8.34
If PNI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.17, suggesting upside of 34.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PNV as Buy (1) -

Morgans reviews forecasts for PolyNovo, noting the company will need a strong second half to achieve a FY26 revenue forecast of $148m, although remains confident this can be delivered.

The broker also points out PolyNovo is one of the most shorted stocks on the ASX and if it can achieve FY26 consensus forecasts and FY27 estimates remain stable, short positions could reduce materially.

Buy rating retained. Target is lowered to $1.56 from $1.83.

Target price is $1.56 Current Price is $1.02 Difference: $0.535
If PNV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.70, suggesting upside of 63.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RRL as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter considers the merger deal between Regis Resources and Vault Minerals ((VAU)) is positive for shareholders and has "strategic merit".

The gold companies are trading at similar valuations and the two businesses are considered as complementary, with Regis offering stronger free cash flow and Vault has scope to catch up once mill expansion at Leonora is finished over FY28-FY29.

The merged entity will create in the near term a 700kozpa producer, the analyst highlights, with five operating mines and a debt free balance sheet plus $1.9bn in cash.

Vault shareholders will receive 0.69472 new Regis shares and have a circa 49% stake of the merger company.

No change to Buy rating and $9.45 target.

Target price is $9.45 Current Price is $6.51 Difference: $2.94
If RRL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.81, suggesting upside of 30.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RRL as Buy (1) -

Regis Resources will merge with Vault Minerals ((VAU)) to create a gold producer with over 700,000 ounces per annum in a diversified tier-1 asset base.

Morgans assesses the deal delivers value for both companies, with Regis addressing perceived mine life weakness and Vault benefiting from cash flow uplift over the short term and a step change in scale.

The broker retains a Buy rating for Regis Resources and steady $10.07 target. Forecasts remain unchanged until the scheme of arrangement has been approved.

Target price is $10.07 Current Price is $6.51 Difference: $3.56
If RRL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.81, suggesting upside of 30.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SCG as Buy (1) -

Scentre Group has re-affirmed its 2026 guidance, targeting FFO of at least 23.73c and distributions of 18.43c, with Citi explaining both represent 4.0% growth.

Commentary highlights the benefit of the share buyback has effectively been smoothed into FY27 and FY28, protecting earnings from interest rate volatility.

FY26-FY28 estimates have been amended on the back of reduced interest rate margins.

Scentre Group has completed a major capital management initiative and also restructured its interest rate hedging, the broker points out.

Target $4.40. Buy.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.75 Difference: $0.65
If SCG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.95, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett - Cessation of coverage

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SIQ as Equal-weight (3) -

In a first look at Smartgroup Corp's March Q, Morgan Stanley saw a strong start, robust visibility and a positive outlook. Along with MacMillan Shakespeare's ((MMS)) result, novated is "clearly the place to be".

Management cited favourable operating conditions and positive demand dynamics. No supply issues were noted despite record backlogs, implying order acceleration toward the back end of the quarter to create a mismatch.

Morgan Stanley thinks strength likely continued into April. Equal-weight and $9.10 target retained. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $9.79 Difference: minus $0.69 (current price is over target).
If SIQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.69, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUL as Buy (1) -

Super Retail announced lower than expected 2H26 trading update, with Citi highlighting both sales and gross margin missed its own estimates and consensus forecasts.

Notably, trading conditions have weakened since the start of the war in the Middle East with group sales up 1.9% for the first 18 weeks of 2H26, below the broker's forecast for 2H26 sales of 2.3% and consensus at 4.4%.

Rebel is performing slightly better while Auto and BCF are weaker. Management pointed to higher cost guidance to -$66m from -$60m as prior spend for FY27 has been pulled forward.

Citi expects consensus earnings forecasts to come down and the analyst is reviewing current estimates.

Buy. Target $15.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $11.66 Difference: $3.34
If SUL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.46, suggesting upside of 28.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUL as Underweight (5) -

Super Retail's March Q trading update revealed Supercheap Auto sales growth of 1.6%, tracking below consensus of 3.1%. Demand moderated through March and April, particularly for discretionary categories, Morgan Stanley notes.

Rebel sales rose 1.4% in-line with consensus. Performance footwear moderated amid increased competitive pressures. BCF sales fell -3.3%, tracking below consensus of 2.1%, impacted by fuel prices and supply constraints.

Macpac sales rose 2.5%, below consensus of 5.9%. Super Retail has undertaken a strategic inventory build of $30m ahead of pending price increases, primarily within Supercheap.

Underweight and $12.50 target retained. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $11.66 Difference: $0.84
If SUL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.46, suggesting upside of 28.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUL as Neutral (3) -

Super Retail's like for like sales for the first 18 weeks of 2H26 showed a slowdown in March and April, notably in discretionary categories for SuperCheap Auto, UBS explains.

Rebel gained market share, boosted by football, mens and a recovery, while less outdoor activity impacted on Macpac in March and April. Boating, camping and fishing was the brand most affected by higher fuel prices.

Gross margins slipped slightly. The broker points to the greatest headwind for margins being the cost of doing business/sales due to the deleveraging as sales growth moderates.

Costs guidance rose to -$66m from -$60m. EPS forecasts are trimmed for FY26 and FY27. No change to Neutral rating. Target price slips to $12.50 from $13.50.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $11.66 Difference: $0.84
If SUL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.46, suggesting upside of 28.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TLC as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Lottery Corp has secured a 40-year extension of its Victorian licence, to June 2068, paying a -$1.145bn upfront premium funded entirely by debt.

Morgans was somewhat surprised by the duration and timing of the renewal, given the licence was historically offered on 10-year terms and was not expiring until June 2028.

Relatively immaterial changes are made to the broker's FY26 estimates and these largely reflect less optimistic trading conditions in lotteries.

The June 3 investor briefing will be the next catalyst where the new CEO will outline a refreshed strategy.

Rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold and the target lifted to $6.00 from $5.70.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.29 Difference: $0.71
If TLC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.88, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VAU as Buy (1) -

Vault Minerals and Regis Resources ((RRL)) plan a merger to create a large-scale gold producer. While there are limited operating synergies, Ord Minnett suggests this will provide a strong platform to deliver organic improvements.

Scale benefits are significant, which in time could mean the merged company trades on higher multiples and more in line with larger peers, the broker adds.

The Vault board has accepted an 11% implied premium and 49% ownership in the combined company in the absence of a superior offer. Buy rating and $7.30 target maintained.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $4.45 Difference: $2.85
If VAU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.33, suggesting upside of 55.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VAU as Buy (1) -

UBS notes recent M&A activity has increased sector attention, but weaker gold prices, rising US inflation and interest rate expectations, alongside higher operating costs, are creating near-term headwinds.

The broker expects continued strong free cash flow generation to support ASX gold sector valuations. At this stage, market expectations for FY27 are likely to moderate as inflationary pressures and Middle East impacts continue flowing through the sector.

UBS forecasts FY27 gold prices at $7,200/oz, above current spot levels near $6,400/oz, while also expecting industry AISC and growth capex assumptions to rise further as inflationary pressures persist.

Target price on Vault Minerals is lowered to $7 from $7.05. Buy rated.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $4.45 Difference: $2.55
If VAU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.33, suggesting upside of 55.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VEA as Outperform (1) -

Viva Energy updated investors at the annual Macquarie conference highlighting the Geelong refinery is operating at over 80% of normal diesel and jet fuel capacity.

Softening product prices in the near term are considered by the company as temporary with underlying crude shortages to result in "tighter" product markets.

Viva has acquired four of the eleven fuel cargoes acquired by the government with no demand destruction as yet expected in the aviation market.

According to the update, the roll out of convenience stores continues to progress well. Outperform rated with a $3.30 target.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.37 Difference: $0.93
If VEA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.84, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources