Australian Broker Call

Citi rates 360 as Buy (1) -

At first glance, Citi notes today's 1Q result by Life360 beat expectations. Adjusted earnings of US$17m exceeded the consensus forecast by 16%, driven by stronger-than-expected revenue, particularly from advertising, the analysts note.

FY26 revenue and earnings guidance were modestly upgraded.

The broker's key highlight was record Paying Circles growth, up 27% year-on-year to 3.0m, alongside solid average revenue per paying circle (ARPPC) and annualised monthly revenue growth.

Advertising revenue also beat Citi's forecast by 8%.

In contrast, commentary notes monthly active user (MAU) growth disappointed due to technical issues, management explained, particularly on Google Play, prompting a downgrade to full-year MAU guidance.

Citi is surprised management did not guide MAU growth further toward the lower end of the 17%-20% revised range from 20%, given ongoing uncertainty in Other International markets.

Margins are also expected to soften in 2Q due to hardware losses.

Buy rating. Target $32.10.

Target price is $32.10 Current Price is $20.11 Difference: $11.99
If 360 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.36, suggesting upside of 75.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AFG as Outperform (1) -

Australian Finance Group presented at Macquarie's annual conference. Management pointed to lodgement momentum in 3Q26, with the securities loan book up to $6.7bn at end of the period from $6.3bn at December quarter end. Settlements came in at $1.5bn.

Residential lodgements advanced for the eighth consecutive quarter to a record $29.5bn, up 23% y/y. This activity is expected to translate to settlements and book growth.

The residential mix of lodgements has edged to upgraders representing 43%, noted as a four year high. Refinancing activity is a record low of 15% of lodgements. Management considers this an opportunity with the normal level at 30%.

Target price slips to $3.01 from $3.05 on slight EPS forecast downgrades. Outperform rated.

Target price is $3.01 Current Price is $2.01 Difference: $1
If AFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AOV as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi leaves FY26 earnings estimates largely unchanged for Amotiv while trimming FY27 and FY28 EPS by -6% and -3%, respectively. This is primarily driven by lower margins amid upward pressure on raw materials and freight that is partially offset by FX tailwinds and modest price increases.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy, although the broker acknowledges the stock's valuation appears undemanding. Target is reduced to $6.70 from $9.30, reflecting lower earnings and larger discount to peers for the 4WD segment.

This also reflects increased earnings risks given potential for deterioration in the Middle East conflict and adverse impact on end-user demand.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $6.47 Difference: $0.23
If AOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.39, suggesting upside of 51.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BRG as Outperform (1) -

At the Macquarie conference Breville Group noted the demand environment was "pretty normal" amid a resilient premium consumer. The broker retains an Outperform rating, noting this reflects the company's ability to capture long term structural growth, supported by the coffee segment.

Growth is being supported through a combination of new market entry and new product development. The current level of investment, which depresses margins in the near term, Macquarie acknowledges, remains necessary to capture opportunities. Target is unchanged at $37.10.

Target price is $37.10 Current Price is $28.30 Difference: $8.8
If BRG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.17, suggesting upside of 37.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CCP as No Rating (-1) -

Credit Corp provided net profit after tax guidance at Macquarie's annual conference which was unchanged at $100m–$110m.

The confirmation comes despite an upgrade outlook for ledger investment expectations at the lower end to $295m–$330m from $280m–$330m.

Volume growth is tracking for a record circa $425m, up 15%, the analyst notes, including a lift in new customers in 3Q26, up 15% y/y. Returning customers rose 20% y/y and the loan book stood at $513m at quarter end.

Earnings forecasts remain at the mid point of guidance. Macquarie is currently on research restriction.

Current Price is $11.94. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CSL as Hold (3) -

CSL's FY26 guidance downgrade was worse than expected by Bell Potter, with revenue reduced by around -US$750m (-4.7%) and profit (NPATA) by -US$300m (-8.7%), implying declines of -2% and -4%, respectively, versus FY25.

The broker attributes current weakness to softer market conditions across Seqirus and albumin, alongside rising competition in immunoglobulin and iron.

Further pressure on Behring margins and ongoing oversupply in US immunoglobulin plasma markets are key concerns for the analysts, with additional global supply expected.

The broker's forecasts are materially downgraded, with profit cut by -16% and -18% for FY27 and FY28, respectively, and no return to revenue growth expected in FY27.

Bell Potter retains a Hold rating and lowers its target to $100 from $155.

Target price is $100.00 Current Price is $100.75 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If CSL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $134.94, suggesting upside of 36.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi downgrades CSL to Neutral from Buy and lowers the target to $110 from $200. This follows a fall of -16% in the stock as a result of the latest profit downgrade post the company's business review.

While there are arguments the bad news is "baked in", the downgrade occurs because the broker does not believe immunoglobulin and albumin are on a firm footing and suspects investors will remain cautious.

Turnarounds in large therapeutic companies are considered long-term projects in the broker's experience.

Low-mid single-digit earnings growth is anticipated in the medium term. Citi cuts FY26 net profit estimates by -10% in FY26 and by -15% in FY27, with reductions to major sales lines and forecast Behring gross margins.

Target price is $110.00 Current Price is $100.75 Difference: $9.25
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $134.94, suggesting upside of 36.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie analysts explain post the flash update yesterday, they remain cautious on the outlook for the Ig and albumin markets pertaining to the extent and the longevity of the problems.

A discount of some -20% has been applied to the target price arising from earnings uncertainty. EPS forecasts are downgraded by -9% for FY26, -10% for FY27 and -12% for FY28 and align with the earnings downgrade.

Target price declines by -37% to $111 from $176. No change to Neutral rating.

Analyst coverage has changed.

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In a flash update Macquarie highlights CSL's CEO in charge has downgraded FY26 guidance as part of the 90-day review.

Revenue is now expected to around US$15.2bn from US$15.9bn-US$16bn with net profit after tax around US$3.1bn from US$3.3bn-US$3.4bn previously.

At the midpoint the broker points to a downgrade of around -5% for revenue and net profit after tax of circa -9%. Management flagged revenue growth in 2H26.

US Ig is anticipated to have a -US$300m revenue impact from the normalisation of channel inventory. The overall albumin market has fallen with an unexpected -US$200m impact. CSL noted their market share has lifted and volumes stabilised.

Seqirus has performed slightly better than previous expectations. The CEO search remains ongoing.

Neutral rating. Target $176.

Target price is $111.00 Current Price is $100.75 Difference: $10.25
If CSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $134.94, suggesting upside of 36.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Overweight (1) -

CSL has downgraded revenue and net profit guidance for FY26 to US$15.2bn and US$3.1bn, respectively, in constant currency terms.

Lower albumin revenue was captured within Morgan Stanley's forecasts while immunoglobulin growth was weaker than expected.

The latter was due to a normalisation of US inventory which created a negative revenue impact of -US$300m.

The broker revises forecasts in light of the updated guidance and retains an Overweight rating, believing the current share price captures key assumptions incorporated in its bear case. 

Target is reduced to $166 from $198. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $166.00 Current Price is $100.75 Difference: $65.25
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $134.94, suggesting upside of 36.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Morgans believes CSL’s FY26 guidance downgrade reflects execution issues rather than structural weakness.

The broker cites China albumin pricing pressure, US Ig inventory normalisation and softer contributions from Hemgenix and iron.

Underlying plasma demand remains healthy, management suggests, with Ig volumes still growing mid-to-high single digits and early signs of market share stabilisation.

The broker's forecasts for FY26-FY28 are reduced, with profit cut by up to -11%, and the target price lowered to $147.59 from $241.34.

Despite weaker near-term visibility, Morgans retains a Buy rating, arguing the current valuation overstates structural risk to the plasma franchise.

Target price is $147.59 Current Price is $100.75 Difference: $46.84
If CSL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $134.94, suggesting upside of 36.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett notes CSL's FY26 guidance downgrade and additional -US$5bn in write-downs surprised the market, driving a sharply negative share price reaction.

The broker attributes the downgrade to weaker-than-expected sales in US immunoglobulin and China albumin, alongside currency and Middle East impacts.

While Ig demand remains mid-to-high single digit, commentary notes uncertainty around prior inventory-driven demand clouds the FY27 outlook. It's noted albumin pricing in China continues to pressure returns despite stable volumes and modest market share gains.

Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating, citing ongoing uncertainty as management resets the business. The target is lowered to $135 from $186.

Target price is $135.00 Current Price is $100.75 Difference: $34.25
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $134.94, suggesting upside of 36.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

UBS points to the circa -7% net profit after tax downgrade by CSL, which sits some circa -4% below the analyst's recently revised earnings forecasts.

Notably, the biotech's key markets, US Ig and Chinese albumin are the causes for the downgrade. The broker points to the reduction of inventories in the 340B channel as a positive for the Ig destocking in the US market.

Growth in the US Medicare program has been a headwind for CSL's pricing. Re albumin in China, market share gains were achieved on the back of stabilising volumes although new regulations in the market are limiting hospital usage.

UBS downgrades its target to $175 from $205 with lower EPS estimates of -7% for FY26 and -9% for FY27. A Buy rating is retained as the stock is seen trading at a sizeable discount to the ASX200.

Commentary posits a re-rating is dependent on future guidance around FY27 outlook and more certainty on the CEO succession.

Target price is $175.00 Current Price is $100.75 Difference: $74.25
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $134.94, suggesting upside of 36.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DNL as Buy (1) -

Citi found the first half results from Dyno Nobel solid, as continuing operating earnings growth occurred, underpinned by both DNAP and DNA.

Going forward the broker models FY26 EBIT at the top end of the guidance range and with conditions looking favourable retains a Buy rating. Target is $4.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: $0.46
If DNL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DNL as No Rating (-1) -

Macquarie notes 1H26 net profit after tax beat forecasts at $161m versus $140m expected. Explosives for the interim result came in 15% above forecast, while EMEA and Latam were lower than forecast.

There was no change to the FY26 guidance which the analyst attributes to likely 2H26 headwinds such as forex and supply chain. Historically, 2H spot sales are also lower than the 1H.

Positively, the transformation program is on track for an earnings (EBIT) target of $600m at the end of FY26. The supply of ammonium nitrate is also secure, another positive, the broker states. The sale of Phosphate Hill to Mayfair is due to complete by the end of June.

EPS forecasts are raised by around 5% for FY26 and between 5%-7% for FY27-FY28.

No rating or target price due to research restrictions.

Current Price is $3.54. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DNL as Equal-weight (3) -

Dyno Nobel beat Morgan Stanley's estimates in the first half results although the lack of a FY26 upgrade was noted, with explosives EBIT reaffirmed at $460-500m.

Management has signalled headwinds for the second half including FX, freight and fuel inflation. Stranded costs at Phosphate Hill and low availability of surplus ammonium nitrate spot sales at elevated prices were also flagged.

Explosives were a clear beat to the broker's estimates in the half with EBIT 18% above consensus forecasts. The company also benefited from selling surplus ammonium nitrate into elevated spot markets.

Equal-weight retained. Target edges up to $3.50 from $3.40. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If DNL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DNL as Hold (3) -

Dyno Nobel's 1H26 result materially exceeded guidance, with earnings (EBIT) rising 39% and profit up 83%, driven by strong Explosives performance and Transformation Program benefits, Morgans explains.

Despite the beat, the broker observes FY26 Explosives guidance was not upgraded due to a stronger Australian dollar, Middle East-related cost pressures and stranded costs following the Phosphate Hill sale.

The divestment of Phosphate Hill leaves Dyno Nobel as a pure-play explosives business, the analyst points out.

Morgans views the company as leveraged to favourable industry dynamics but fairly valued. A Hold rating is kept with a $3.46 target, up from $3.33.

Target price is $3.46 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If DNL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DNL as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett assesses Dyno Nobel delivered a strong 1H FY26 result, with explosives earnings (EBIT) rising 28% year-on-year and exceeding forecasts by the broker and consensus by at least 20%.

Outperformance was driven by robust results in the Americas and Asia-Pacific, the analyst explains, which more than offset weakness in EMEA and Latin America.

Commentary notes demand was supported by coal and metals customers despite supply disruptions in ammonium nitrate.

Ord Minnett's target price is increased to $3.50 from $3.20. A Hold rating is maintained, with the analyst preferring Orica ((ORI)) on valuation grounds.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If DNL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DNL as Neutral (3) -

UBS keeps its Neutral rating for Dyno Nobel following interim results and raises its target by 20c to $3.75.

A summary of the broker's research yesterday follows.

At first take, UBS notes Dyno Nobel announced a robust 1H26 earnings (EBIT) result beating consensus by around 18% with underlying net profit after tax up 63% y/y. The balance sheet de-geared to 1.3x leverage from 1.6x.

Management reiterated FY26 explosives guidance for earnings (EBIT) between $460m-$500m including a cost impost of -$30m, the analyst points out.

Capex guidance of -$350m to -$300m is below previous guidance with corporate cost guidance at the top end of the prior updated guidance.

UBS explains earnings growth for the period was generated by APAC, some 24% above consensus. FY26 guidance includes -$30m of forex headwinds and the Middle East challenges, as well as Phosphate Hill stranded costs.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: $0.21
If DNL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EMV as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes strong progress in EMVision Medical Devices' Continuous Innovation Study, which runs alongside the Pivotal Trial.

Management plans to add acute ischaemia detection to the existing haemorrhage endpoint, targeting FDA approval across both stroke types.

This move would materially enhance clinical utility and commercial value, according to the analysts, given ischaemic strokes account for around 87% of cases.

Commentary points out leveraging existing trial infrastructure may save up to two years and significant costs versus a standalone study, with enrolment now expected by late 2026 or early 2027.

Improved diagnostic accuracy is seen as supporting better treatment pathways and workflow efficiency.

Bell Potter retains a Buy rating and $3.15 target for EMVision Medical Devices.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $1.89 Difference: $1.26
If EMV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ING as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Macquarie has upgraded Inghams Group to Neutral from Underperform with an unchanged target of $1.80 post the Investor Day.

Management reiterated guidance for FY26 which was viewed positively and reflected an ability to navigate inflationary pressures.

Strategically, the focus is on a better product mix with growth segments such as free range, organic, convenience nutrition and experience singled out by management.

The analyst ponders how challenging it will be to attract customers to differentiated products in higher value categories when the market is used to private label produce.

Earnings growth will continue to be boosted by better cost of production as well as improvements across the supply chain and yield factors.

Earnings forecasts are tweaked higher by 2% for FY26-FY28.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.82 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If ING meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.38, suggesting upside of 21.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IPD as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett believes the 4Q will be a transformational period for ImpediMed, noting a new CEO appointment, a $15.2m capital raising and a greater than -$5m cost-out program.

While the funding extends runway, the broker stresses execution is critical, particularly in accelerating US unit sales and validating new markets. The investment case is still considered high risk with increasingly binary outcomes.

3Q26 showed improvement in unit sales, though annual recurring revenue (ARR) remained soft and cash outflows increased, commentary highlights.

Ord Minnett's forecasts are updated for dilution, slower long-term growth and higher funding risk. A Speculative Buy rating is maintained and the target is lowered to 2c from 5c.

Target price is $0.02 Current Price is $0.01 Difference: $0.013
If IPD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 186% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.02, suggesting upside of 83.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MMS as Neutral (3) -

McMillan Shakespeare provided a trading update at the Macquarie conference, with new novated sales up 7% in the third quarter and reflecting a shift to BEVs. Electric vehicles represented 33% of novated lease "car park" compared with 24% in the prior corresponding period.

The review of the fringe benefits tax policy by the federal government will mean changes are implemented over three phases.

The existing EV discount will continue until March 31, 2027 and in phase 2, up to April 2029, the full discount will continue to apply for those worth $75,000 or less. Phase 3 from April 2029 all BEVs below the threshold will receive the -25% discount on payable FBT.

Macquarie points out, while the government has provided clarity regarding the fringe benefits policy, the NDIS remains a "headwind", noting McMillan Shakespeare and other plan managers are paid a fee per participant and the government is looking to reduce numbers to 600,000 by 2030.

Neutral rating is unchanged. Target is raised to $18.80 from $16.40.

Target price is $18.80 Current Price is $18.31 Difference: $0.49
If MMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.40, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley assesses Macquarie Group has entered an upgrade cycle, noting profit in the second half rose 52% and beat estimates, although the composition was not as strong as the beat suggested.

At the same time the company has guided that most of its important earnings drivers should be largely in line in FY27. While the underlying trends do not provide grounds for greater confidence immediately, the broker asserts there are signs of an imminent upgrade cycle.

These include volatility in energy markets, the deal pipeline, growth in private credit and demand for AI infrastructure as well as higher asset prices.

Macquarie Group has cancelled the residual $1bn share buyback and lowered the full-year payout ratio to the lower half of the 50-70% target range. Overweight. Target is reduced to $263 from $270. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $263.00 Current Price is $239.34 Difference: $23.66
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $251.26, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MQG as Hold (3) -

Morgans assesses Macquarie Group delivered a strong FY26 result, with profit of $4.8bn rising 30% year-on-year and exceeding consensus by 8%, driven by broad-based performance.

The Commodities and Global Markets segment was the standout, the broker suggests, benefiting from elevated commodity volatility. It's felt Macquarie Capital also performed strongly on investment gains and private credit growth.

Credit impairments were a weak point, according to the analyst, more than doubling over the year.

Morgans lifts its target to $248.32 from $223.52 and retains a Hold rating, viewing the stock as fairly valued despite strong franchise quality.

Target price is $248.32 Current Price is $239.34 Difference: $8.98
If MQG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $251.26, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MTS as Neutral (3) -

Metcash's FY26 trading update was generally in line with consensus expectations but some -1% to -2% below Macquarie's forecasts.

The inline update was a positive for the company where the share price has been under pressure, particularly with rising costs thus far not impacting the outlook for the current fiscal year, albeit only 1.5 months at April end.

Management noted ongoing difficult conditions going into FY27 notably for Food and Hardware.

In the former sales thus far have been "resilient" but the analyst cautions on volume growth against a backdrop of price rises. For hardware earnings forecasts are trimmed with the recovery pushed out. Metcash liquor group is trading well.

EPS estimates are lowered by -2% for FY26 and -7% for FY27. Target price declines by -14% to $3.00. FY26 result is due on June 22. Neutral rated.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $0.08
If MTS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.26, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MTS as Equal-weight (3) -

Metcash has provided FY26 guidance for the first time, outlining net profit of $268-270m. Food EBIT is guided at $259-262m and hardware at $175-179m, the latter Morgan Stanley asserts is weak.

No material impact from the Middle East conflict on FY26 earnings is anticipated. Additional cost cutting initiatives are underway for FY27 with a target of at least $25m in annualised savings.

Target is $3.30. Equal-weight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $0.38
If MTS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.26, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MTS as Buy (1) -

Metcash's FY26 trading update was broadly in line with consensus expectations, with strength in food and liquor offsetting weaker hardware performance, Ord Minnett explains.

Guidance implies to the analyst Food division earnings (EBIT) will grow 4%-6% year-on-year, supported by pantry restocking and the resilience of the IGA value proposition.

Liquor was a standout division, in the broker's view, benefiting from local range and convenience rather than price discounting. Hardware continues to weigh due to margin pressure, particularly in Victoria and Tasmania, observes the analyst.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and $3.70 target.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $0.78
If MTS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.26, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MTS as Buy (1) -

Metcash's FY26 profit guidance of $268m-$270m was broadly in line with the consensus expectation, which UBS suggests should ease investor concerns.

Food and Liquor outperformed, supported by margin resilience and market share gains, the analysts explain, with Liquor margins improving in H2.

While Hardware & Tools sales were "strong", the broker highlights guidance implies a lower 2H earnings (EBIT) margin.

Forecasts are modestly upgraded, with cost savings expected to support earnings.

UBS retains a Buy rating and $3.50 target, highlighting resilient core divisions and cyclical upside in Hardware.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $0.58
If MTS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.26, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Neutral (3) -

In a flash update, Macquarie notes Octopus Energy has announced the acquisition of Ovo's 4m retail client business for a speculated GBP550m-GBP600m. Ovo has around 2.9m electricity customers and circa 2.1m gas customers.

Subject to approval, the analyst notes the value per customer based on 5m accounts is around GBP110-GBP120. Octopus on the same value has around 13.5m accounts which infers a value of GBP1.5bn-GBP1.6bn.

Macquarie's valuation of Octopus is around GBP2.3bn and argues the capital from the Kraken sale will support the sale. Origin Energy is a shareholder of both Octopus and Kraken, and the acquisition is viewed as supporting the Octopus valuation.

Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and $11.25 target.

Target price is $11.25 Current Price is $11.31 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.01, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SIQ as Outperform (1) -

Smartgroup Corp presented at Macquarie's annual conference including a 1Q2026 trading update. Settlements rose 7% over the period with new vehicle orders rising 22% and average revenue advanced 8%.

Higher fuel prices pulled forward sales into the quarter cycling robust 1Q25 comps.

The broker explains the review of the FBT BEV (electric vehicle) policy has three phases. The existing BEV discount continues until March 31, 2027.

From April 1, 2027 to April 1, 2029 the full FBT discount applies for BEVs $75k or less. Phase 3, from April 1, 2029 all BEVs below the luxury car tax level will receive a -25% discount on payable FBT.

Smartgroup noted 80% of new BEV orders were under $75k and 88% below $80k in 1Q26. Target price rises 24.9% to $11.49 from $9.20 with slight EPS upgrades and more certainty around the policy reset. Outperform retained.

Target price is $11.49 Current Price is $11.02 Difference: $0.47
If SIQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.81, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SKY as Speculative Buy (1) -

Management at Sky Metals continues to advance the Tallebung project, with progress on approvals and ongoing drilling supporting resource growth and development confidence.

Recent drilling has delivered high-grade tin results, alongside meaningful silver and tungsten credits, with both commodities trading near record levels, the analyst highlights.

While forecasts are unchanged ahead of the preliminary feasibility study (PFS), the broker lifts its bull case tin price assumption, reflecting recent market strength.

Morgans retains a Speculative Buy rating and $0.35 target, highlighting leveraged exposure to tin and a capital-efficient development pathway.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.16
If SKY meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SNZ as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes enhanced cash flow disclosures from Summerset Group understate the portfolio's mature earnings potential, with current FY25 CFEO yield at 1.1% versus 5.3% for more mature villages.

The broker sees several factors suppressing both cash flow and valuation metrics and estimates mature CFEO yield could improve by around 180bps to 7.1%, or 8.5% excluding head office costs.

The portfolio's mature cash generation potential of around NZ$320m is believed to more than support the current share price, even before development pipeline upside.

FY26 and FY27 EPS forecasts fall -5% and -6% due to new sales volumes changes, respectively, while the target price decreases to NZ$15.12 from NZ$15.86 because of lower near term earnings forecasts.

No change to Outperform.

Current Price is $6.32. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TCG as Outperform (1) -

Turaco Gold has assay results from Afema gold project, anticipating a prefeasibility study in June. Results include 28m at 2.17g/t gold, 40m at 1.20g/t and 31m at 1.47g/t.

The results come from infill drilling on the Adiopan-Asupiri deposit which hosts a mineral resource in Macquarie's estimates of around 1.32m ounces.

Exploration drilling on new areas called Sikasso and Bergerie that are outside of the 4.65m oz Afema resource but along the Afema Shear have been reported.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating with a $1.10 target.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.54
If TCG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 96% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates XRO as Buy (1) -

Citi considers the launch of Xero Coaches in the US a reflection of that country's more direct customer dynamic rather than the accountant/bookkeeper-led model in other regions.

It also reflects feedback from customers that the system can be difficult to set up initially. The main issue for the broker is whether this could drive higher ARPU and reduce churn over time.

Separately, analysis of downtime incidents shows that, while the recent outage took longer than usual to resolve, the overall number of incidents have trended lower in recent years.

Xero is Buy rated with a $112.65 target.

Target price is $112.65 Current Price is $83.05 Difference: $29.6
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $144.08, suggesting upside of 79.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ZIP as Outperform (1) -

Management at Zip Co has reaffirmed FY26 guidance, with cash earnings expected to be at least $260m and US total transaction value (TTV) growth continuing above 40% year-on-year in April.

The broker highlights improving credit trends, with US losses expected to fall below 1.75% of TTV in 4Q26, alongside strong growth in non-discretionary spending categories.

Product innovation, including Pay-in-2 and Pay-in-8, is driving higher engagement, the broker explains.

Macquarie's payback analysis shows over 90% of receivables are collected within six weeks, supporting asset quality and visibility.

The Outperform rating and $3.40 target are retained.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $0.8
If ZIP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting upside of 33.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources