Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates AAC as Buy (1) -

Australian Agricultural Co delivered FY26 operating EBITDA that was up 23% and ahead of Bell Potter's forecasts.

Revenue of $422.1m was up 9%, with the broker noting the record operating performance was understated because of the inclusion of -$9m in flood-related costs.

The company has indicated global beef demand should remain strong while acknowledging inflationary pressures in energy, transport and production.

Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $1.85 from $1.95.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: $0.54
If AAC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates APA as Resume coverage with Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley resumed coverage of APA Group with an Equal-weight rating and $10.47 target, assessing it is the safest way to play the energy security theme currently. The business has low exposure to fuel costs or supply risk but with strong leverage to energy security, including powering AI.

The broker incorporates the $1bn hybrid and the 400MW Brigalow development but considers the valuation stretched.

While constructive on the growth prospects, Morgan Stanley points out energy infrastructure development takes time such as the 3-5 year backlog on gas turbines.

The stock offers a 5.6% dividend yield, which the broker assesses is the safest among its coverage. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $10.47 Current Price is $10.33 Difference: $0.14
If APA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.03, suggesting downside of -12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ARB as Neutral (3) -

Citi lowers its FY26-FY28 EPS forecasts for ARB Corp by -3% to -14%, reflecting a weaker sales backdrop, engineering challenges, ongoing supply constraints across key OEM vehicle models and cost pressures.

A partial offset is provided by a stronger Australian dollar against the Thai baht, the analyst explains.

The broker lowers its target price by -21% to $17.40, following forecast earnings downgrades and reduced peer and market valuation multiples, while retaining a Neutral rating.

Target price is $17.40 Current Price is $17.72 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.65, suggesting upside of 42.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BGA as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley initiates coverage of Bega Cheese with an Overweight rating and $6.70 target, noting the stock offers attractive earnings growth at an undemanding valuation multiple along with structural and resilient demand tailwinds.

The broker observes it is an increasingly branded dairy/nutrition business with exposure to yoghurt, milk-based beverages and spreads. Protein has expanded from sports nutrition into mainstream grocery, while GLP-1 adoption supports smaller protein-based consumption.

Morgan Stanley forecasts more than 20% compound growth in earnings per share over FY25-FY28, with material cost savings already delivered and further optimisation to support margin expansion over time. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $5.28 Difference: $1.42
If BGA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.56, suggesting upside of 21.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

UBS observes copper is currently at the "centre of the mining cycle" owing to structural demand from electrification, electric vehicles, grid infrastructure and AI data centres.

The outlook for copper fundamentals is considered more compelling amid key supply challenges, declining grades and ongoing mine disruptions.

The broker has lifted 2026 price estimates by 13% to US$5.89/lb with a long-term price forecast of US$5.50/lb. UBS calculates this improves average earnings out to 2028 for its copper coverage by 2-13%.

BHP Group is the world's largest listed copper producer and derives 53% of FY27 EBITDA from its copper business, the broker notes, although this will fall in the next 2-3 years on grade declines at Escondida before projects such as Spence and expansion of Olympic Dam contribute to production targets in the mid 2030s.

Neutral rating. Target rises to $60 from $52.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $59.10 Difference: $0.9
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.40, suggesting downside of -3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BPT as Sell (5) -

Citi upgrades its oil price outlook, arguing the market is underestimating both the likely duration of Strait of Hormuz disruption and the risk of further escalation.

The revised forecasts lift 2026/2027 oil price assumptions by 8% and 7%, driving double-digit earnings upgrades across the broker's upstream oil and gas coverage.

Citi's base case assumes a US-Iran memorandum of understanding is reached in the third quarter, allowing a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz through end-2026.

Commentary also points to meaningful upside risk to spot gas prices given Europe's low inventory starting point during the restocking cycle.

Citi's $1.10 target and Sell rating are maintained for Beach Energy.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: minus $0.035 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.10, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes changes to property-related tax concessions could have a "profound" effect on demand for investment property and in 2027 mortgage growth could slow to 3-4%.

The broker points out a pick up in Australian housing loan growth at the start of 2026 has been almost entirely driven by investment property loans. Investors accounted for 39% of new loans in 2025. Favourable tax treatment has been a key reason why there has been a 30-year housing "super cycle" in Australia, the broker adds.

Morgan Stanley estimates softer mortgage growth could result in earnings downgrades in FY27 of around -5% for the major banks. CommBank has relied heavily on investor loans since the start of 2025 and has the highest exposure to Australian mortgages of the major banks, along with Westpac.

Target is $130. Underweight rating. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $130.00 Current Price is $164.13 Difference: minus $34.13 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $125.57, suggesting downside of -24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates COF as Hold (3) -

Centuria Office REIT is facing pressure on earnings from what Bell Potter describes as "tricky conditions" in its key markets, including interest-rate rises and diluting asset divestments.

The broker forecasts declining earnings in FY27, levelling off in FY28 before growth returns in FY29. Key precincts remain challenged including St Leonards and Docklands, which are experiencing elevating vacancies and incentives.

Pro forma gearing of 42.5% is also at the top of the sector despite $228.7m in divestments since FY24. The broker notes the distribution has been supplemented by capital since FY22 while a path to full cash coverage by FY29 is envisaged.

Coverage is transferred to Michael Armstrong and the Hold rating is unchanged. Target is reduced to $0.95 from $1.05.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.92 Difference: $0.03
If COF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.97, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSC as Buy (1) -

UBS observes copper is currently at the "centre of the mining cycle" owing to structural demand from electrification, electric vehicles, grid infrastructure and AI data centres.

The outlook for copper fundamentals is considered more compelling amid key supply challenges, declining grades and ongoing mine disruptions.

The broker has lifted 2026 price estimates by 13% to US$5.89/lb with a long-term price forecast of US$5.50/lb. UBS calculates this improves average earnings out to 2028 for its copper coverage by 2-13%.

Capstone Copper is the broker's key copper play, and the most leveraged copper name, holding the richest list of growth projects. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $18 from $15.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $13.34 Difference: $4.66
If CSC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.24, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DOC as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

The acquisition of MedicSpot UK marks a pivotal moment for Doctor Care Anywhere in Bell Potter's opinion, as it diversifies the business and provides the ability to serve a broader market for corporate health care.

The broker points out the transaction was for assets only rather than the corporate structure. Major assets include the website and the estimated 2500 customers ordering GLP-1 weight loss products each month.

Bell Potter believes the acquisition for just GBP850,000 represents "deep value" and raises the target to $0.24 from $0.20. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.103
If DOC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in GBP. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DRO as Initiation of coverage with Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage on DroneShield with a Lighten recommendation, arguing the company may require a period of consolidation following exceptional FY25 revenue growth of 269%.

The broker remains positive on long-term industry tailwinds from rising geopolitical tensions and accelerating counter-drone spending.

Order momentum is expected to moderate through the second half of FY26 and FY27 before re-accelerating from FY28.

DroneShield needs time to evolve its product offering for changing battlefield conditions, consolidate recent management changes and expand into civilian markets, the analyst explains.

The broker begins with a $2.28 target price.

Target price is $2.28 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: minus $0.72 (current price is over target).
If DRO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EOL as Buy (1) -

Energy One has flagged FY26 annual recurring revenue growth of around 13%, which Bell Potter notes is below prior projections of 15-20%.

The downgrade stems from the timing of commencements, largely with two large multinational industrial customers, that will fall into FY27. The company also confirmed the acceleration of a share-based payments expense of -$800,000.

The new CEO also reflected on increased volatility and complexity within global energy markets, particularly in Europe, and the broker notes the observations highlight the growing importance of the company's software, operating services, automation and 24/7 access.

Bell Potter believes AI displacement concerns are unwarranted as the company serves a highly regulated and "sticky" industry with mission-critical solutions. Buy rating. Target is reduced to $17.10 from $18.00.

Target price is $17.10 Current Price is $12.85 Difference: $4.25
If EOL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS observes copper is currently at the "centre of the mining cycle" owing to structural demand from electrification, electric vehicles, grid infrastructure and AI data centres.

The outlook for copper fundamentals is considered more compelling amid key supply challenges, declining grades and ongoing mine disruptions.

The broker has lifted 2026 price estimates by 13% to US$5.89/lb with a long-term price forecast of US$5.50/lb. UBS calculates this improves average earnings out to 2028 for its copper coverage by 2-13%.

Evolution Mining, which has potential to lift its copper exposure to 30% from 20% from a possible expansion of Northparkes, is upgraded to Buy from Neutral with the target rising to $14.00 from $13.80.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $11.80 Difference: $2.2
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.88, suggesting upside of 22.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GYG as Sell (5) -

Citi supports Guzman y Gomez's decision to exit the US market, arguing the business faced significant structural and competitive challenges, limiting long-term prospects.

The move, announced today on the ASX, will likely drive consensus earnings upgrades from FY27 as US losses are removed, suggests the broker at first glance.

Higher future dividends are now likely, in Citi's view, while management has also extended the share buyback program through to June 30.

On the flipside, the failed expansion reduces the company's long-term total addressable market (TAM), the analysts highlight, potentially pressuring the stock's valuation multiple.

Citi remains positive on the Australian growth opportunity, noting the company currently operates 237 restaurants against a long-term target of 1,000 stores. It's noted inflationary pressures across labour and food costs remain a headwind.

The broker retains a Sell rating, citing concerns around valuation and increasing international competition, including Chipotle's planned expansion into Asia. Target $16.55.

Target price is $16.55 Current Price is $18.08 Difference: minus $1.53 (current price is over target).
If GYG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $24.59, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HLO as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett observes Helloworld Travel has increased its stake in Webjet Group ((WJL)) to 19.96%, signaling continued strategic interest in a potential merger despite deteriorating industry conditions.

Following weaker earnings expectations for Webjet, driven by Middle East conflict disruption, weaker consumer confidence and worsening OTA industry dynamics, the broker has revised its merger scenario analysis.

Ord Minnett now estimates Helloworld could pay up to $0.65 per Webjet share and still create shareholder value through merger synergies and reduced funding requirements.

Unchanged Hold rating and $1.63 target.

Target price is $1.63 Current Price is $1.42 Difference: $0.21
If HLO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IAG as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi downgrades its rating for Insurance Australia Group to Neutral from Buy after a 12% share price rally over the past fortnight leaves the stock trading close to the broker's $8.50 target price.

While the broker acknowledges potential upside to gross written premium growth and capital returns, it has not yet incorporated management's high single-digit EPS growth targets into forecasts.

The analyst also warns Greensill-related litigation risk may increasingly return to investor focus following significant reserve increases by Tokio Marine and legal charges recognised by Marsh.

Although management continues to expect no net financial exposure, Citi believes ongoing court proceedings could generate additional uncertainty and headline risk over coming months.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $8.15 Difference: $0.35
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.23, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JHX as Hold (3) -

Following FY26 results for James Hardie Industries, Ord Minnett remains cautious, arguing the key North American fibre cement (NAFC) division continues to underperform underlying end-market demand.

The broker estimates primary demand growth in NAFC has shifted from average annual growth of 5% across FY07-FY24 to declines of around -6% and -5% in FY25 and FY26, respectively.

Management is attempting to improve volumes through deeper penetration among smaller regional builders and promotion of more efficient installation methods. One example is the company's Trim-Over system. Industry feedback has been mixed, the analyst notes.

Some support is seen from conservative FY27 guidance, cost savings and potential US index inclusion.

The broker maintains its Hold rating given elevated macroeconomic, geopolitical and US housing market risks. Target falls by -$1.00 to $31.50.

Target price is $31.50 Current Price is $27.99 Difference: $3.51
If JHX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.35, suggesting upside of 31.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates KAR as Buy (1) -

Citi upgrades its oil price outlook, arguing the market is underestimating both the likely duration of Strait of Hormuz disruption and the risk of further escalation.

The revised forecasts lift 2026/2027 oil price assumptions by 8% and 7%, driving double-digit earnings upgrades across the broker's upstream oil and gas coverage.

Citi's base case assumes a US-Iran memorandum of understanding is reached in the third quarter, allowing a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz through end-2026.

Commentary also points to meaningful upside risk to spot gas prices given Europe's low inventory starting point during the restocking cycle.

Citi raises its target for Karoon Energy to $2.50 from $2.25. Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $0.42
If KAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.12, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NEM as Buy (1) -

Citi remains cautious on gold in the near term, arguing continued Strait of Hormuz disruption and elevated energy prices could reduce investor buying amid fears of a broader risk-off sell-off.

At the same time, the broker notes China's spending on gold imports remains near record levels at around US$300bn annually, supported by strong investment demand and a strengthening renminbi.

While this is helping sustain gold prices at historically elevated levels, Citi believes the key marginal driver remains softer investor demand outside China, particularly in India and broader retail markets.

Buy rating and target of $215 for Newmont Corp.

Target price is $215.00 Current Price is $149.79 Difference: $65.21
If NEM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $203.00, suggesting upside of 34.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NEM as Buy (1) -

UBS observes copper is currently at the "centre of the mining cycle" owing to structural demand from electrification, electric vehicles, grid infrastructure and AI data centres.

The outlook for copper fundamentals is considered more compelling amid key supply challenges, declining grades and ongoing mine disruptions.

The broker has lifted 2026 price estimates by 13% to US$5.89/lb with a long-term price forecast of US$5.50/lb. UBS calculates this improves average earnings out to 2028 for its copper coverage by 2%-13%.

Newmont Corp has a relatively low exposure to copper, the broker adds, but could find more than 100,000t from its global portfolio, and with gold tailwinds continues to trade on 8%-10% free cash flow yields on UBS modelling. Buy rating and $195 target.

Target price is $195.00 Current Price is $149.79 Difference: $45.21
If NEM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $203.00, suggesting upside of 34.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

UBS observes copper is currently at the "centre of the mining cycle" owing to structural demand from electrification, electric vehicles, grid infrastructure and AI data centres.

The outlook for copper fundamentals is considered more compelling amid key supply challenges, declining grades and ongoing mine disruptions.

The broker has lifted 2026 price estimates by 13% to US$5.89/lb with a long-term price forecast of US$5.50/lb. UBS calculates this improves average earnings out to 2028 for its copper coverage by 2-13%.

The copper share of Rio Tinto's EBITDA in FY27 is around 30%, rising to 34% in FY29. Growth is driven in the short term by the underground ramp up at Oyu Tolgoi. Neutral rating. Target rises to $183 from $160.

Target price is $183.00 Current Price is $181.68 Difference: $1.32
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $172.50, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Buy (1) -

UBS observes copper is currently at the "centre of the mining cycle" owing to structural demand from electrification, electric vehicles, grid infrastructure and AI data centres.

The outlook for copper fundamentals is considered more compelling amid key supply challenges, declining grades and ongoing mine disruptions.

The broker has lifted 2026 price estimates by 13% to US$5.89/lb with a long-term price forecast of US$5.50/lb. UBS calculates this improves average earnings out to 2028 for its copper coverage by 2-13%.

South32 is a 45%-owner of Sierra Gorda in Chile and has around 27% copper exposure in FY27 EBITDA. A Buy rating is maintained. Target rises to $5.10 from $4.50.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.14 Difference: $0.96
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.94, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SFR as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

UBS observes copper is currently at the "centre of the mining cycle" owing to structural demand from electrification, electric vehicles, grid infrastructure and AI data centres.

The outlook for copper fundamentals is considered more compelling amid key supply challenges, declining grades and ongoing mine disruptions.

The broker has lifted 2026 price estimates by 13% to US$5.89/lb with a long-term price forecast of US$5.50/lb. UBS calculates this improves average earnings out to 2028 for its copper coverage by 2-13%.

Sandfire Resources is considered a consistent, reliable mid-tier producer and is upgraded to Neutral from Sell with the target lifted to $20.00 from $16.75.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $18.01 Difference: $1.99
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.20, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGH as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes SGH Ltd reiterated group FY26 earnings (EBIT) of low-single-digit to mid-single-digit growth.

Management highlighted ongoing attention on execution which is targeted at improving and sustaining growth through the cycle against challenging macro conditions.

Re Boral, the analyst notes the target equates to earnings (EBIT) margins over 15%. Coates is seeking better time utilisation from the existing 62% and WesTrac is looking for more aftermarket serviceability.

Strategically the goal is to generate 10% earnings (EBIT) growth through the cycle. The broker explains management is looking for opportunities in property development, Crux, data centre build out and exposure to growth in infrastructure, mining and energy.

Target moves to $50.35 from $50.40. No change to Outperform rating.

Target price is $50.35 Current Price is $41.12 Difference: $9.23
If SGH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $52.12, suggesting upside of 25.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SKO as Buy (1) -

Following Serko's FY26 results, Citi raises its target price by 2% to $2.90 and retains a Buy rating.

The analyst expects revenue growth to accelerate in FY28 as US Defined Corporate revenue scales further and Serko.ai begins contributing to monetisation.

Summaries of the broker's prior research on the results follow.

Post conference call with Serko management, Citi analysts' key takeaways are that Serko is seeing limited impact from the Middle East and overall macro, with B4B activity levels picking back up in 2H26 and 1H27 to date.

Earlier today the broker responded as follows:

Serko announced an underlying net profit after tax loss of -NZ$11.3m which was greater than forecast and missed Citi's expectations of a loss of -NZ$9.5m.

Earnings (EBITDA) of NZ$6.5m also came in lower than the analyst's and consensus forecasts with revenue in line. Higher opex and a lower capitalisation ratio weighed on earnings (EBITDA).

Revenue guidance for FY27 also missed consensus expectations at the midpoint by -1% but was 2% above the broker's forecast.

Serko.ai closed beta was launched and is on track for launch later in 2026. On the negative side, completed room-nights were better but room nights per active customer fell -5% y/y. Total spend guidance was also higher than expected for FY27.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $1.7
If SKO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 142% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.94, suggesting upside of 198.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Buy (1) -

Citi upgrades its oil price outlook, arguing the market is underestimating both the likely duration of Strait of Hormuz disruption and the risk of further escalation.

The revised forecasts lift 2026/2027 oil price assumptions by 8% and 7%, driving double-digit earnings upgrades across the broker's upstream oil and gas coverage.

Citi's base case assumes a US-Iran memorandum of understanding is reached in the third quarter, allowing a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz through end-2026.

Commentary also points to meaningful upside risk to spot gas prices given Europe's low inventory starting point during the restocking cycle.

Woodside Energy and Santos currently appear priced for oil around US$60/bbl, the analyst highlights.

For Santos: Target rises to $9.00 from $8.65. Buy rating.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.13 Difference: $0.87
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.28, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SYL as Buy (1) -

Symal Group provided an inaugural investor briefing that highlighted its transition into a highly diversified infrastructure services business, which Ord Minnett considers is uniquely exposed to Australia's most critical structural tailwinds.

Its end markets are digital infrastructure, defence and utilities which now comprise 61% of total work in hand, up from just 21% at listing. The tender pipeline is at $8.5bn.

The broker is positive on the outlook for the business, which is supported by a vertical integration strategy and a 90% repeat business strike rate. Buy rating reiterated with a $3.30 target.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.48 Difference: $0.82
If SYL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TLS as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie downgrades Telstra Group to Neutral from Outperform with a slightly lower target price of $5.57 from $5.64.

The analyst believes it is harder to "justify" the defensive premium against a backdrop of accelerating inflation/growth, the SaaS sell-off and slower subscriber in operation (SIO) meaning the telco needs to lean more into cost cutting.

Telstra raised NBN plan prices by around 3.6% or $2.40 per month, broadly offsetting higher nbnCo wholesale charges from July 2026. The ACMA also finalised spectrum renewal pricing, with total industry costs slightly below prior estimates and Telstra guidance.

Post the de-rating of tech stocks, the broker prefers tech over defensive telcos and views the defensive premium as vulnerable against a rising interest rate environment.

EPS forecasts are tweaked lower but the analyst believes ongoing portfolio management and cost reduction efforts leave scope for future capital management initiatives.

Target price is $5.57 Current Price is $5.46 Difference: $0.11
If TLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.35, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TNE as Buy (1) -

TechnologyOne delivered a first half result that was mixed compared with Ord Minnett's forecasts, with revenue slightly below and operating expenditure materially better than expected.

Early indicators suggest the company's Plus business is tracking ahead of forecasts with record adoption and evidence of annual recurring revenue upside.

Combined with its usage-based pricing model and 35-plus years of workflow data, the broker believes advances in AI are enhancing the company's defensive qualities related to AI disruption rather than adding a risk of displacement.

Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $31.38 from $29.73.

Target price is $31.38 Current Price is $29.16 Difference: $2.22
If TNE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.74, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes changes to property-related tax concessions could have a "profound" effect on demand for investment property and in 2027 mortgage growth could slow to 3-4%.

The broker points out a pick up in Australian housing loan growth at the start of 2026 has been almost entirely driven by investment property loans. Investors accounted for 39% of new loans in 2025.

Favourable tax treatment has been a key reason why there has been a 30-year housing "super cycle" in Australia, the broker adds.

Morgan Stanley estimates softer mortgage growth could result in earnings downgrades in FY27 of around -5% for the major banks.

Westpac along with Commbank has the most exposure to Australian mortgages and its share price is considered more vulnerable in the short term to a weaker housing and mortgage market.

Underweight rating. Target is $34.00. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $36.28 Difference: minus $2.28 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.68, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Citi upgrades its oil price outlook, arguing the market is underestimating both the likely duration of Strait of Hormuz disruption and the risk of further escalation.

The revised forecasts lift 2026/2027 oil price assumptions by 8% and 7%, driving double-digit earnings upgrades across the broker's upstream oil and gas coverage.

Citi's base case assumes a US-Iran memorandum of understanding is reached in the third quarter, allowing a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz through end-2026.

Commentary also points to meaningful upside risk to spot gas prices given Europe's low inventory starting point during the restocking cycle.

Woodside Energy and Santos currently appear priced for oil around US$60/bbl, the analyst highlights.

For Woodside Energy: Target raised to $34.00 from $33.25. Neutral rating.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $31.83 Difference: $2.17
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.54, suggesting downside of -3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WJL as Hold (3) -

Webjet Group posted a FY26 result that was weaker than Ord Minnett expected and reflected a deteriorating operating environment in the fourth quarter.

The FY27 outlook is affected by challenges in both economic and industry conditions amid materially lower airline commissions and surcharging payment bans.

Near-term catalysts remain elusive in the absence of a return of takeover interests, the broker adds, supporting a Hold rating.

Separately, the company announced that Virgin Australia will substantially reduce commission payments on Virgin Australia products or for achieving specified performance targets, effective July 1.

The broker revises EBITDA estimates down -10% for FY27 and -9% for FY28. Target is reduced to $0.45 from $0.67.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If WJL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources