Australian Broker Call

Citi rates A2M as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes French multinational food and beverage company Danone's 1Q26 result suggests relatively resilient infant milk formula (IMF) sales in China, providing a read-through for a2 Milk Co.

While both companies are facing tighter quality controls on imported products, Danone appears to be managing the environment more effectively, in the analysts' view.

In contrast, a2 Milk recently downgraded guidance, which Citi attributes in part to its smaller in-country capabilities relative to Danone.

Neutral. Target $8.40.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $7.39 Difference: $1.01
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.93, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AEL as Outperform (1) -

Amplitude Energy announced 3Q production of 6.86PJe which was in line with Macquarie's estimate, while sales volumes and revenue missed consensus on lower gas volumes and realised pricing.

The broker highlights operational strength, with increased Orbost capacity and ongoing optimisation, alongside progress across Otway basin developments and key gas sales agreements.

EPS forecasts are lowered by -18% for FY26 and -21% for FY27 on softer gas price assumptions. Outperform rating is retained, with the target price lowered to $2.80 from $3.25.

The broker notes shares are trading at a -15% discount to Gippsland asset values, with catalysts including upcoming drilling and project approvals.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: $1.25
If AEL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 81% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.80, suggesting upside of 70.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALD as Outperform (1) -

Post yesterday's update see further below, Macquarie upgrades EPS forecasts by 15% due to higher refining margins and international trading and arbitrage gains.

FY27 EPS estimate slips by -1%.

The upcoming ACCC decision (June 5) for the completion of the EG Group acquisition is expected to let the deal go ahead, with the divestment of -37 sites against the original -19 sites offered.

This does not alter the analyst's positive view on the transaction.

Outperform retained with a higher target price of $40.80 from $40.

*****

Management at Ampol has today provided a March quarter trading update along with an update on fuel supply arrangements.

At first glance, Macquarie assesses a "solid" quarter, with a strong refining performance and better-than-expected fuel volumes in Australia, partly supported by March "panic buying".

While output was in line with the analyst's forecast, refining margins at Lytton exceeded expectation, benefiting from elevated pricing during the conflict, while the company has secured crude supply despite higher costs.

The Fuels & Infrastructure division also benefited from one-off trading gains from stored and arbitrage cargoes, the broker explains.

Ampol is seen as well positioned to navigate volatility, supported by hedging and secured fuel supply, with demand remaining relatively stable despite rising costs.

Target $40.80. Outperform rating maintained.

Target price is $40.80 Current Price is $32.80 Difference: $8
If ALD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.10, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALD as Overweight (1) -

Ampol delivered a March quarter update from which Morgan Stanley anticipates a "modest" positive reaction.

Lytton production was 1.4bn litres, fuel sales of 6.1bn litres were down -9% (lower international) while convenience sales of 900m litres were up 3.5% (demand pulling forward).

The company has deferred its Lytton turnaround to August, having previously cited early June, and is working with the government on fuel standard relief.

Elevated April refining margins continue, albeit with higher landed crude costs.

Overweight. Target rises to $35. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $32.80 Difference: $2.2
If ALD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.10, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Citi is anticipating softer gross gaming revenue (GGR) trends into upcoming results for Aristocrat Leisure and Light & Wonder, with a March decline likely driven by timing rather than underlying weakness.

Game performance remains stable, with a focus for Aristocrat on net adds and fee per day growth, while Interactive performance will also be closely watched by the analyst.

The analyst retains a Buy rating on Aristocrat Leisure though sentiment may remain affected by AI concerns and geopolitical risks.

Unchanged $65 target.

Target price is $65.00 Current Price is $47.87 Difference: $17.13
If ALL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $67.31, suggesting upside of 42.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AMA as Buy (1) -

AMA Group announced a modest 3Q26 earnings (EBITDA) beat of $17.9m, 2% better than Bell Potter's forecasts, due to stronger margins, although revenue was slightly below expectations.

Performance was mixed across divisions, with Capital Smart and Specialist Businesses outperforming while AMA Collision and Wales lagged, and operating cash flow missed due to a higher tax payment, the analyst details.

Management re-iterated FY26 earnings (EBITDA) guidance, prompting minor earnings forecast upgrades for FY26/FY27.

No dividend is anticipated in FY26, with a resumption in FY27, supported by the proposed share buyback. No change to Buy rating and $1.10 price target.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.54
If AMA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 96% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AMA as Buy (1) -

AMA Group's 3Q26 result revealed stable volumes and solid year-to-date growth, Morgans highlights, with earnings (EBITDA) up 5% yoy despite a softer quarterly comparison.

FY26 earnings guidance of $70m-75m was reaffirmed, implying to the broker a strong 4Q supported by process improvements in the Collision division and seasonal tailwinds.

The balance sheet remains conservative, in the analyst's view, with management flagging a potential share buyback.

Morgans retains a Buy rating, citing an undemanding valuation and improving operational momentum.

Target falls to 80c from 99c after adoption of a lower valuation multiple to reflect a more challenging operating backdrop.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.24
If AMA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AOV as Buy (1) -

Citi suggests commentary from 1Q results by US-listed Genuine Parts Company points to increasingly challenging conditions for auto parts retailers Bapcor and Amotiv.

Genuine Parts is a global distributor of automotive and industrial parts.

Australasian sales growth moderated slightly compared to 4Q25, while Genuine Parts also flagged regional risks from Middle East tensions and rising interest rates.

These trends support Citi's more cautious stance on the sector.

Buy rating and $9.30 target for Amotiv.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $6.64 Difference: $2.66
If AOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.04, suggesting upside of 53.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ART as Buy (1) -

Morgans highlights Airtasker's "broadly solid" 3Q26 update, underpinned by strong growth in domestic gross merchandise value (GMV).

Australian GMV rose by 18% year-on-year to $57m, while revenue rose by approximately 12% to $15.2m, supported by improved marketplace activity following brand investment, the broker explains.

Momentum is also building offshore, the analyst highlights, with the UK and US marketplaces continuing to scale from a low base.

While the broker's forecasts are unchanged, the target is reduced to $0.47 from $0.51 due to a higher assumed risk-free rate.

Morgans retains a Buy rating, citing a large addressable market and ongoing growth potential.

Target price is $0.47 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.215
If ART meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BAP as Neutral (3) -

Citi suggests commentary from March quarter results by US-listed Genuine Parts Company points to increasingly challenging conditions for auto parts retailers Bapcor and Amotiv.

Genuine Parts is a global distributor of automotive and industrial parts.

Australasian sales growth moderated slightly compared to 4Q25, while Genuine Parts also flagged regional risks from Middle East tensions and rising interest rates.

These trends support Citi's more cautious stance on the sector.

Neutral rating and 76c target for Bapcor.

Target price is $0.76 Current Price is $0.57 Difference: $0.185
If BAP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.92, suggesting upside of 63.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Citi assesses BHP Group delivered "steady" Q3 FY26 production, with copper output of 477kt in line with the consensus expectation. Iron ore shipments also broadly matched consensus despite seasonal weakness, the analysts observe.

Gold and silver by-product credits continue to support copper margins, the broker explains, contributing to an upgrade in unit cost guidance for Escondida.

While production guidance is unchanged, stronger output at Escondida and Antamina (copper/zinc in Peru) offsets weaker expectations at the Pampa Norte copper mine in Chile.

Citi expects modest FY26 earnings upgrades, driven by lower unit costs and favourable commodity price movements.

Target $54. Neutral.

Target price is $54.00 Current Price is $56.17 Difference: minus $2.17 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $54.05, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Post yesterday's quick take below, Macquarie retains a $53 target price and a Neutral rating, preferring Rio Tinto ((RIO)) on valuation grounds.

The March quarter result was viewed as "solid" for the diversified miner's key assets and lifts EPS forecasts by 2% for FY26 due to changes in copper and iron ore forecasts.

****

From yesterday:

Macquarie views today's 3QFY26 operational result by BHP Group as broadly in line, with iron ore and copper meeting expectations, while metallurgical coal missed due to weather-related disruptions. A balanced operational outcome and stable outlook are noted.

Iron ore shipments were slightly weaker due to cyclones, though pricing was stronger than expected, the analyst explains. Guidance for iron ore remains unchanged following the conclusion of China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) negotiations.

Copper performance was supported by strength at Escondida and Antamina, the broker highlights, offsetting weakness at Spence, with full-year guidance maintained at the upper end.

Neutral rating. Target $53.

Target price is $53.00 Current Price is $56.17 Difference: minus $3.17 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $54.05, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

In third quarter production numbers BHP Group delivered results that were broadly in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations. Copper production was in line, with Antamina and CSA offsetting Escondida and Spence.

Iron ore production was up marginally to 62.8mt while cyclone-related disruptions drove a quarter on quarter decline in Western Australia.

BMA output was 3.8mt and softer than the broker anticipated amid wet weather, weaker stripping and geotech issues at Broadmeadow. Overweight rating retained. Target is $57.50. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $57.50 Current Price is $56.17 Difference: $1.33
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $54.05, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett highlights BHP Group's March quarter production was mixed, with iron ore and thermal coal ahead of expectations, copper in line and coking coal below forecasts due to weather disruptions.

Management largely retained FY26 guidance, with copper expected at the top end of the range and lower unit costs driven by operational improvements.

The broker flags cost pressures in coal due to weather impacts, while noting resilience from procurement and operations amid external risks.

EPS forecasts are largely unchanged and the target price is retained at $54.

The stock is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate, with Rio Tinto ((RIO)) the preferred stock post the abandoned talks with Glencore and more cost savings, volume growth and asset sales expected than from BHP.

Target price is $54.00 Current Price is $56.17 Difference: minus $2.17 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $54.05, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

BHP Group delivered a strong performance in the March quarter with UBS noting Western Australian iron ore production was at its second highest level since 2018 amid record material movements.

Realised prices appear robust and the company has concluded negotiations with CMRG.

The broker also found the underlying mine performance at Escondida helped to offset planned grade declines, while Spence production was soft because of ore complexity.

Copper in South Australia was underpinned by a robust operating performance, the broker adds. FY26 guidance for copper is at the upper end of 1.9-2.0mt.

Metallurgical coal from Queensland was in line with UBS estimates, and despite geotech issues at Broadmeadow and Saraji South been placed on care and maintenance, FY26 production is still guided to the lower half of 36-40mt.

Neutral rating and $52 target.

Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $56.17 Difference: minus $4.17 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $54.05, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BOQ as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Following further reflection on interim results for Bank of Queensland, Citi lowers its target to $6.80 from $7.15 and downgrades to Neutral from Buy.

It's felt upside catalysts are largely reflected in the share price, with further growth dependent on delivering profitable volume expansion.

The latter remains constrained by competitive conditions across retail and commercial segments, the analyst explains.

A summary of yesterday's research by the broker follows.

Bank of Queensland's 1H26 cash earnings of $176m (released today) missed forecasts by consensus and Citi by around -4%. In an initial assessment, the broker notes the net interest margin (NIM) was around -5bps softer than expected.

The NIM decline was driven by timing factors, including cash rate impacts and competition, which the analysts expect to reverse in 2H26, supported by funding and mix tailwinds.

Much of the decline also appears timing-related, including scope to optimise liquidity following the Whole Loan Sale (WLS), part of the bank's equipment finance loan book.

Costs were in line, while higher bad debt charges were manageable and asset quality remains sound, according to Citi.

The market is expected to look through the miss, supported by an improving margin outlook, solid provisioning and ongoing capital management potential.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $6.61 Difference: $0.19
If BOQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.57, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOQ as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Post yesterday's update below, Macquarie downgrades Bank of Queensland to Underperform from Neutral, pointing to downside risks from rising provisions and ongoing loss of market share.

EPS forecasts are lowered by -5%-7% for FY26-FY28, with the broker pointing to the sale of the equipment finance book, weaker credit growth decreasing the balance sheet, and higher provisions for impaired loans.

Target price slips to $5.70 from $6.00.

Below is Macquarie's initial response from yesterday:

****

Macquarie highlights Bank of Queensland's circa $3.7bn equipment finance book sale is a catalyst for an around $300m capital return and a 15–25bps uplift in return on equity (ROE).

A servicing and forward flow agreement is expected to partially offset lost net interest income (NII).

Given an over $600m stranded franking balance, the broker expects capital to be returned via a fully franked special dividend, assuming 45c in 2H26. Earnings forecasts are unchanged pending further detail, though modest EPS dilution is expected.

While transformation efforts continue and near-term earnings are supported by funding spreads, commentary explains the bank remains sub-scale and below its cost of capital.

Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and lowers its target to $6.25 from $6.50.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $6.61 Difference: minus $0.91 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.57, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOQ as Equal-weight (3) -

Bank of Queensland's operating trends were in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations in the first half although cash profit, revenue and the margin were all below forecasts.

Revenue fell around -3.5% half on half. Margins fell by -3 basis points to 1.67%. Lending headwinds outweighed benefits on deposit pricing and mix.

The broker observes management remains optimistic on the margin outlook having flagged tailwinds from higher interest rates and increasing funding costs benefits.

A return to growth in home lending is also expected in FY27 and this is consistent with the broker's forecasts.

Equal-weight. Target is $6.50. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.61 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.57, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BOQ as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Further to noting "disappointing" first half results from Bank of Queensland, UBS downgrades to Neutral from Buy and lowers its target to $7.00 from $7.50.

The broker continues to like the bank's strategic repositioning over recent years with its "capital-light income opportunities" and the buyback is supportive.

Yet, execution risk around restoring profitable mortgage growth and lowering the cost base has driven a more balanced view on the earnings outlook from UBS.

The broker reduces cash EPS estimates for FY26 by -4.3% and FY27 by -0.6%. Return on equity is expected to reach 9% in FY28.

UBS emphasises a critical factor for the investment outlook is achieving a recovery in lending growth.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.61 Difference: $0.39
If BOQ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.57, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BXB as Buy (1) -

At Brambles' 1H26 result in February, Citi notes like-for-like expectations were lowered and remain a key risk to FY26.

Additional pressure from Middle East disruption and rising costs further increases this risk, the analysts warn.

Positively, the broker's analysis of recent US scanner data suggests underlying volume trends have remained broadly stable, despite the geopolitical backdrop.

While an earlier Easter may have provided some support, Citi finds little evidence of incremental downside risk to LFL volumes at this stage.

The broker continues to monitor fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and beverage categories as key demand indicators for Brambles.

Target $27.55. Buy.

Target price is $27.55 Current Price is $22.53 Difference: $5.02
If BXB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.57, suggesting upside of 19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates COH as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Management at Cochlear has cut FY26 profit guidance by around -30% at the midpoint, with consensus already factoring in a significant downgrade, observes Citi.

The broker highlights a broad range of headwinds, including weaker implant demand in developed markets, Middle East disruption, FX impacts, reimbursement pressures in China and margin compression.

While most factors are expected to be temporary, the analyst believes softer demand will persist, lowering its long-term implant growth outlook.

FY26 earnings forecasts are reduced, the broker's target falls to $95 from $210, and the rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral.

Target price is $95.00 Current Price is $99.58 Difference: minus $4.58 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $116.53, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COH as Neutral (3) -

Post yesterday's update see further below, the analyst downgrades EPS forecasts by -27% for FY26 and -33% for FY27 on the guidance downgrade, noting management has continued to lower manufacturing output more than sales due to current inventory levels.

Target price is also downgraded to $115 from $239 with no change to the Neutral rating.

Macquarie stresses a cautious view on the near-term recovery, with poor consumer sentiment continuing to affect processor upgrades as a risk.

****

Macquarie highlights Cochlear has materially downgraded FY26 guidance, with underlying NPAT now expected at $290-330m, around -29% below the prior midpoint.

The broker notes softer-than-expected cochlear implant sales, with 2H26 growth guided to growth of 2%-6% constant currency versus prior expectations of 13%-plus growth, reflecting weaker developed market demand and ongoing hospital capacity constraints.

Notably, services and acoustics divisions remain supportive, but structural pressures across referral networks and healthcare systems are weighing on near-term growth with headwinds from weaker consumer sentiment, China reimbursement changes, and geopolitical disruption in the Middle East.

Neutral. Target $115.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $99.58 Difference: $15.42
If COH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $116.53, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COH as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

Cochlear has flagged weaker demand in developed markets as well as uncertainty in relation to Middle East sales and now expects underlying net profit of $290-330m compared with guidance of $435-460m previously.

Weaker demand has also combined with a headwind from FX-based spot rates. Second half sales growth is expected to be up 2-6% in constant currency terms and the company will undertake measures to revamp its cost base.

Morgan Stanley finds the valuation now less demanding, albeit still not compelling, following the sharp reaction in the share price.

Its forecasts now capture items Cochlear highlighted in its update as well as assuming negative operating leverage through operating expenditure lines.

This brings the broker's estimates for net profit to the mid point of downgraded guidance.

Morgan Stanley upgrades to Equal-weight from Underweight, although acknowledges visibility is limited and confidence is low.

Target is reduced to $119 from $194. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $119.00 Current Price is $99.58 Difference: $19.42
If COH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $116.53, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates COH as Hold (3) -

In Morgans' view, Cochlear's FY26 earnings downgrade reflects a more fundamental shift, with weaker demand, particularly in developed markets, highlighting a more cyclical profile than previously assumed.

While FX, restructuring and margin pressures contributed, softer implant demand is the key driver, challenging the perception of Cochlear as a purely structural growth story, the broker suggests.

Although long-term fundamentals remain intact, near-term visibility has deteriorated and execution risk is seen as rising.

Morgans lowers its earnings forecasts, cuts its target to $107.17 from $214.93, and retains a Hold rating, awaiting signs of demand stabilisation.

Target price is $107.17 Current Price is $99.58 Difference: $7.59
If COH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $116.53, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COH as Hold (3) -

Cochlear downgraded FY26 profit guidance by -28% to -33% ($290–$330m), due to weaker implant growth, margin pressure, currency headwinds and provisions for Middle East receivables, Ord Minnett details.

The broker notes the key concern is a sharp downgrade in expected second half implant sales, reflecting softer demand in developed markets and operational constraints.

The company appears to be facing a mix of cyclical and structural challenges, including weaker US consumer sentiment, fewer referrals and capacity limits in Europe, the analyst explains.

EPS forecasts are reduced by around -20% to -23% across FY26 to FY28. Hold rating is retained, while the target price is cut to $154.00 from $224.00.

Target price is $154.00 Current Price is $99.58 Difference: $54.42
If COH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $116.53, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COH as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS notes revised guidance from Cochlear includes -$18m-$25m in restructuring costs arising from "cost-base reshaping" and a further $10m for provisioning of receivables from the Middle East.

Post the initial update this morning, see further below, UBS downgrades Cochlear to Neutral from Hold and lowers its price target price to $109 from $302.

EPS forecasts are downgraded by around -25% in FY26 and FY27 and are at the midpoint of downgraded guidance.

The analyst stresses the outlook into FY27 remains uncertain, with low earnings "visibility" against a challenging macro backdrop and strains on the European hospital systems.

****

At the midpoint the revised guidance range of $290-330m implies a second-half net profit of $115m. The broker points out while resultant savings were not quantified the cost-base reshaping represents a pulling forward of existing plans to reduce fixed costs. More detail is expected at the full-year results in August.

UBS points out the explanations for weak unit volumes in recent months varied across regions, yet overall attributed to a "deprioritisation" of hearing health. Buy rating and $302 target maintained.

Target price is $109.00 Current Price is $99.58 Difference: $9.42
If COH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $116.53, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CTD as No Rating (-1) -

Ord Minnett points to increasing UK-related liabilities, with revenue reversals rising to -$222m, although partially offset by prior payments, tax recoveries and a weaker GBP, post a Corporate Travel Management update.

The balance sheet remains under pressure, with cash of $104m and an undrawn $40m facility, while a recapitalisation remains a potential outcome.

At this stage, the accounting issues appear isolated to UK operations, with refunds expected to be paid over an extended period.

The analyst highlights upcoming catalysts, including FY25 and 1H26 results by June and a potential ASX relisting thereafter.

Not Rated is maintained, pending greater clarity on financial impacts, earnings outlook and balance sheet requirements.

Current Price is $16.07. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $14.77, suggesting downside of -8.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CYC as Buy (1) -

Cyclopharm announced a pick-up in the US rollout, with six new Technegas generators installed in 1Q26 and at least 15 more expected by June, supporting expectations of 65 units in market, Bell Potter highlights.

The broker notes the recent capital raise lifts cash to around $20m and underwrites revenue growth, with margins expected to improve towards 80% as US sales expand.

Fiscal breakeven is estimated at around 310 installed systems in the US, which could generate revenue of $19m.

Earnings forecasts are materially downgraded to reflect revised rollout assumptions and dilution from the capital raise.

Buy rating is retained, while the target price is reduced to $1.00 from $1.50.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: $0.275
If CYC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DRO as Buy (1) -

DroneShield announced 1Q2026 revenue of $74m, up 121% y/y and ahead of the prior $63m trading update due to delivery timing, Bell Potter explains, with SaaS contributing $5.1m for the quarter.

Committed 2026 revenue of $155m as at April, reflecting steady order flow including a FIFA World Cup contract, tracking ahead of forecasts and representing 42% of its upgraded $365m revenue estimate.

The broker points to a strong balance sheet, with a fourth consecutive quarter of positive operating cash flow at $24.1m and cash of $222.8m, alongside an unchanged $2.2bn sales pipeline.

EPS forecasts slip by -7% for 2026 and lift by 4% for 2027, with the current year viewed as an inflection point for the global C-UAS industry.

No change to Buy rating and $4.80 target price.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: $0.97
If DRO meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EBO as Buy (1) -

EBOS Group has downgraded FY26 earnings (EBITDA) guidance by around -2% at the midpoint, citing elevated fuel and energy costs.

Higher input costs, particularly across distribution operations, are being largely absorbed, with limited ability to pass through pricing due to the essential nature of its services, the analysts explain.

EPS forecasts are downgraded across FY26-FY28. Near-term growth is expected to remain subdued following a period of heavy investment.

Morgans lowers its target to $22.92 from $28.07 but retains a Buy rating, highlighting attractive yield and an expected growth recovery from FY28.

Target price is $22.92 Current Price is $17.38 Difference: $5.54
If EBO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.97, suggesting upside of 49.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ELS as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes Elsight announced 1Q26 revenue representing 12x y/y growth and marking a fifth consecutive quarter of growth, with performance tracking towards 1H expectations supported by recent order deliveries and ongoing customer dialogue.

Customer adoption continues to grow, with deliveries to 25 customers including 8 new clients, alongside additional follow-on and new orders across public safety, enterprise and defence segments.

The Defense Innovation Unit Phase 3 conclusion has been delayed due to the Iran war but should be finished over 1H2026, resulting in orders, the analyst flags.

EPS forecasts are tweaked higher for 2026/2027 with a Buy rating retained. Target lifts to $8.10 from $8.00.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $6.92 Difference: $1.18
If ELS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GDG as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter views Generation Development's 3Q26 update as mixed, with the core business trading well while the acquisitions appear to show some softness.

The additional mandates, including the $1.5bn related to the Hub24 ((HUB)) transition, did not take place, although Evidentia announced $1.4bn net flows including a $300m mandate.

Net flows were broadly in line with the previous year, while FUM came in at $34.8bn, up $5.2bn year-to-date.

Life sales were better than expected, while Lonsec had robust growth boosted by the expansion of SMA ratings.

EPS forecasts are tweaked lower for FY26 and down -12% for FY27, with a lowered target price of $6.20 from $7.40.

No change in Buy rating, but the guidance appears "ambitious" to the analyst.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $3.56 Difference: $2.64
If GDG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.36, suggesting upside of 76.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GDG as Buy (1) -

After a further review of 3Q results for Generation Development, Citi lowers its target by -40c to $6.40.

The Buy rating is kept given structural tailwinds in managed accounts and potential for the group to deliver multiple years of solid earnings growth.

A summary of yesterday's research by the broker follows.

On first look, Citi views Generation Development Group's 3Q26 result as mixed, with net flows of $1.4bn missing expectations due to timing delays and softer organic flows, although investment bonds and Lonsec performed strongly.

The broker notes the key mandate transition, over $1.5bn has started and is expected to complete by May-26, supporting a seasonally stronger 4Q and a recovery in flows.

FY26 FUM forecasts are trimmed modestly to around $40bn, and EPS forecasts by around -1% for FY26 and -3% for FY27-FY28 due to delayed mandates and weaker near-term flows.

Longer term, the analyst highlights structural tailwinds in managed accounts, with industry FUM expected to expand significantly, positioning the company for sustained earnings growth.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $3.56 Difference: $2.84
If GDG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 80% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.36, suggesting upside of 76.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GDG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Generation Development's Evidentia FUM grew 30% y/y in the March quarter, but net inflows of $1.4bn missed expectations due to slower conversion and market volatility.

The update was viewed as "disappointing".

The broker highlights strong performance from Generation Life, with FUM up 35% y/y and net inflows of $310m, supported by structural tailwinds.

Solid underlying demand at Lonsec is highlighted, with growth in research products and expansion into SMA ratings supporting diversification.

EPS forecasts are lowered by -7%, -20% and -16% for FY26, FY27 and FY28 on reduced expectations for Evidentia, lower FUM and reduced operating leverage, with the target price cut to $4.90 from $6.50.

Outperform retained as Generation Development is seen as positioned in "structurally growing sectors".

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $3.56 Difference: $1.34
If GDG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.36, suggesting upside of 76.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GDG as Overweight (1) -

Generation Development produced strong net inflows in the third quarter, up 81% year-on-year, Morgan Stanley observes, although market movements weighed on Evidentia.

Funds under management for the latter were $34.8bn, below expectations, amid transition delays and adverse market movements.

Overweight. Target is $7.00. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $3.56 Difference: $3.44
If GDG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 97% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.36, suggesting upside of 76.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GPT as Buy (1) -

As part of Citi's research on AI Themes in Australian Real Estate, investors were asked which sub-sector is most at risk from AI disruption.

Around 32% of respondents believe the risk is overstated in Australia and less significant than the market anticipates, the broker observes.

Office was viewed as the most exposed sector, also attracting 32% of responses, reflecting concerns AI could reduce office employment or slow workforce growth.

Data centres followed at 16%, with retail at 11% and industrial at 5%.

Target for GPT Group is $6.00. Buy.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.79 Difference: $1.21
If GPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.44, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HUB as Buy (1) -

Citi re-iterates its Buy rating for Hub24 and lowers its target by -2% to $103.10 following a 3Q update.

A summary of the broker's initial view of results follows.

Hub24's 3Q flows were softer than expected by Citi, reflecting a one-off institutional outflow and market volatility, though underlying momentum remains intact.

Lead indicators remain strong, the analysts highlight, with solid adviser additions and new distribution agreements boosting medium-term funds under administration growth.

The broker trims its FY26-FY28 profit (NPATA) forecasts by -2% due to a higher tax rate, while lower operating expense assumptions partially offset the impact of weaker revenue.

Some pressure on margins is anticipated from lower cash balances in 2H26 but Citi maintains confidence in the structural growth story.

Target price is $103.10 Current Price is $85.76 Difference: $17.34
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $104.46, suggesting upside of 22.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Outperform (1) -

Iluka Resources announced a mixed 1Q2026 update, according to Macquarie, with stronger zircon, rutile and ilmenite sales offset by a miss in synthetic rutile due to shipment timing.

The broker notes improved cash generation, with around $70m of cash released from inventory drawdown and further working capital unwind expected.

Higher zircon pricing into 2Q2026 is viewed as a positive, although shipment timing and market uncertainty remain factors.

Forecasts are downgraded, with 2026 earnings reduced by -23% following adjustments to sales timing and pricing.

Outperform rating is retained, while the target price increases to $8.40 from $8.30.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $7.93 Difference: $0.47
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.39, suggesting downside of -3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Overweight (1) -

Markets continue to remain challenging for Iluka Resources, Morgan Stanley observes, with total mineral sands production of 47,600t short by -22.7% compared with estimates.

The company has contracted 50,000t of zircon sales in the second quarter, with price increases of up to US$120/t.

Second quarter zircon contracts imply US$45/t F.O.B. uplift net of higher logistics costs, the broker observes.

The company has indicated sulphur constraints into China are pressuring sulphate pigment producers, potentially tightening titanium dioxide feedstocks and supporting chloride demand.

Overweight. Target is $7.90. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $7.93 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.39, suggesting downside of -3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ILU as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett emphasises the stronger March quarter sales for Iluka Resources, which have reduced immediate capital raising risk and supported a reduction in mineral sands debt to $417m, down from $473m.

The broker notes improving sales, particularly in zircon, although rising freight and fuel costs linked to the Gulf conflict present headwinds.

Notably, the analyst points to a shift in the investment case towards rare earths, with Eneabba development driving market interest while the mineral sands business is expected to remain self-funding.

Hold rating is retained with the outlook continuing to remain "unclear", while the target price is increased to $8.00 from $5.00 previously.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.93 Difference: $0.07
If ILU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.39, suggesting downside of -3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JBH as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett reviews consumer sector coverage to reflect the prospect for higher interest rates as most data shows the domestic economy is still "hot", although consumer confidence is flagging in the face of an uncertain economic backdrop and the global energy shock.

The review has resulted in EPS estimates downgraded by -1%-12% across the broker's discretionary coverage, with cuts to targets for most stocks in the category.

There is pressure on inputs that rely on oil, such as foam packaging for furniture retailers as well as nylon, polyester and acrylic components for apparel and homewares.

Hold rating retained for JB Hi-Fi with the target lowered to $90 from $95.

Target price is $90.00 Current Price is $77.12 Difference: $12.88
If JBH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $88.96, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LNW as Buy (1) -

Citi notes softer gross gaming revenue (GGR) trends into upcoming results for Aristocrat Leisure and Light & Wonder, with a March decline likely driven by timing rather than underlying weakness.

For Light & Wonder, earnings are expected to be weighted towards later in the year, with 1Q26 likely the low point.

The analyst retains a Buy rating on Light & Wonder though sentiment may remain affected by AI concerns and geopolitical risks.

Unchanged $160 target.

Target price is $160.00 Current Price is $125.03 Difference: $34.97
If LNW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $200.00, suggesting upside of 63.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MGH as Buy (1) -

Morgans highlights Maas Group's strategic pivot toward data centre infrastructure, underpinned by its Firmus pipeline and a growing civil construction business.

The broker explains the group holds a strong net cash position, providing flexibility to deploy capital into high-return growth opportunities, including data centres and electrification infrastructure.

Potential is envisaged for significant earnings expansion over the medium term, supported by capital deployment and project execution.

Morgans retains a Buy rating given an attractive valuation relative to peers, with optionality from the data centre pipeline offering upside. The target is increased by 80c to $6.00.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.88 Difference: $1.12
If MGH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MQG as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Macquarie Group has recently announced the sale of key assets, including the aircraft leasing business, Macquarie Air Finance, and the OnStream meter business.

UBS revises earnings estimates to account for these transactions, which will impact FY26 and FY27 earnings in particular.

The sale of OnStream is expected to significantly boost earnings for the CGM division in FY26, with the after-tax impact on group earnings estimated at around an increase of $400m.

Investor attention is expected to remain on the exposure to private credit and SaaS private equity investments.

In light of the 22% increase in the share price over the past month and the stock moving through the revised price target, the broker downgrades to Neutral from Buy ahead of financial results on May 8.

Target price is $235.00 Current Price is $232.03 Difference: $2.97
If MQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $240.70, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MTS as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett reviews consumer sector coverage to reflect the prospect for higher interest rates as most data shows the domestic economy is still "hot", although consumer confidence is flagging in the face of an uncertain economic backdrop and the global energy shock.

The review has resulted in EPS estimates downgraded by -1%-12% across the broker's discretionary coverage, with cuts to targets for most stocks in the category.

There is pressure on inputs that rely on oil, such as foam packaging for furniture retailers as well as nylon, polyester and acrylic components for apparel and homewares.

Some companies and customer categories will experience a more specific impact from higher fuel costs such as the hardware division of Metcash, the broker adds.

Buy rating retained with the target lowered to $3.70 from $4.00.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0.8
If MTS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.36, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NCK as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

Ord Minnett reviews consumer sector coverage to reflect the prospect for higher interest rates as most data shows the domestic economy is still "hot", although consumer confidence is flagging in the face of an uncertain economic backdrop and the global energy shock.

The review has resulted in EPS estimates downgraded by -1%-12% across the broker's discretionary coverage, with cuts to targets for most stocks in the category.

There is pressure on inputs that rely on oil, such as foam packaging for furniture retailers as well as nylon, polyester and acrylic components for apparel and homewares.

Ord Minnett upgrades Nick Scali to Hold from Sell and reduces its target to $15 from $17.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $15.29 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If NCK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.20, suggesting upside of 33.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NST as Buy (1) -

Citi describes Northern Star Resources' March quarter operational result as mixed, with costs (AISC) around -11% below consensus and solid free cash flow partly offset by ongoing execution risks.

The broker remains cautious on the KCGM mill expansion, citing productivity issues, cost inflation and delays, with first production now expected in September 2027.

Concerns also persist at Jundee, where declining grades and reduced capital investment are expected to weigh on output.

Citi also flags continued uncertainty around project timing and approvals, particularly for Hemi.

Target $29.70. Buy.

Target price is $29.70 Current Price is $22.80 Difference: $6.9
If NST meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.96, suggesting upside of 23.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -

Northern Star Resources announced 3Q26 gold production of 387koz and AISC of $2,709/oz, both exceeding Macquarie's expectations, boosted by stronger cost performance.

The broker notes additional cost pressures at KCGM heading into FY27, with around -$75m flagged due to productivity, inflation and approval delays, while ramp-up targets are viewed as optimistic.

The gold producer is also experiencing higher fuel costs, increasing the overall cost base, with diesel impacts rising materially.

Outperform rating is retained with an unchanged target price of $25.00. EPS forecasts are tweaked higher slightly.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $22.80 Difference: $2.2
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.96, suggesting upside of 23.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NST as Buy (1) -

Northern Star Resources delivered an improved 3Q26, Morgans observes. Gold sales and costs outperformed expectations, supported by stronger grades and operational recovery across key assets.

Costs (AISC) declined materially quarter-on-quarter, the analyst notes, while FY26 production guidance of over 1.5Moz was reaffirmed.

The KCGM mill expansion remains on track for early FY27 and is expected to drive a step-change in volumes and cost efficiency.

With a strong balance sheet and a $500m buyback announced, Morgans retains a Buy rating and $30.00 target, citing compelling medium-term growth. Unchanged $30 target.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $22.80 Difference: $7.2
If NST meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.96, suggesting upside of 23.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Buy (1) -

UBS observes a minor "relief rally" after Northern Star Resources pre-released March quarter production of 380,000 ounces and announced a $500m buyback.

Further information has been provided on costs, with AISC of $2,709/oz beating expectations while guidance has been retained for 23mt processed in FY27, ahead of full guidance in July.

The broker considers the next catalysts are delivery of the growth and promised free cash flow.

There remains risks to the outlook, yet UBS believes these are priced in and retains a Buy rating with a $24.35 target.

Target price is $24.35 Current Price is $22.80 Difference: $1.55
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.96, suggesting upside of 23.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Paladin Energy pre-reported March quarter U308 production as well as upgrading FY26 production guidance.

The quarterly update showed inventory of 2.2mlbs, up 0.55mlbs due to timing of shipments.

The realised price of US$68/lb, down -13% q/q, was attributed to higher volumes sold into "base escalated contracts".

The analyst highlights Paladin has around 53% exposure to the spot price out to 2030.

EPS forecasts are tweaked lower for FY27.

There is no change to the broker's Buy rating and $15.30 target price.

Target price is $15.30 Current Price is $12.87 Difference: $2.43
If PDN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.74, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PDN as Neutral (3) -

On further inspection, Macquarie lowers the target price to $13.25 from $13.55, with EPS forecasts tweaked slightly lower for FY26-FY27 on a slight rise in operating costs.

The analyst notes after the pullback in the shares by some -11%, the stock is implying a US$94/lb U308 price, which is closer to the broker's long-term price assumption.

No change to Neutral rating, noting potential risks to consensus FY27 estimates, which could emerge at the 4Q26 report and guidance in July.

****

From yesterday:

Today's 3QFY26 operational result by Paladin Energy was in line with Macquarie's expectations, with production of 1.29Mlbs U3O8, supported by improved recovery rates despite lower feed grades.

Mining activity increased, while processing performance remained strong, lifting plant recoveries above expectations, the analyst explains in a first assessment.

Costs and sales metrics were pre-reported, with FY26 cost guidance unchanged.

The ramp-up at the Langer Heinrich mine remains on track for completion by FY26, though Macquarie sees downside risk to FY27 consensus production estimates.

Macquarie retains a Neutral rating, citing prior share price strength and potential risks to forward expectations. Target $13.25.

Target price is $13.25 Current Price is $12.87 Difference: $0.38
If PDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.74, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley updates its modelling following the production results from Paladin Energy. FY26 EPS falls by -25.2% to US$0.03, accounting for a softer third quarter realised uranium price.

FY26 sales guidance is unchanged despite a lift in production guidance to 4.5-4.8m pounds.

The broker reduces FY27 and FY28 EPS estimates by -9% and -4.9%, respectively, after making minor adjustments to the ramp up at Langer Heinrich.

This reduces the target to $13.65 from $13.70. Overweight rating retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Current Price is $12.87. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $12.74, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PDN as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett views the 3Q26 result from Paladin Energy as robust, with higher production and lower costs driven by stockpile processing.

The broker notes revised guidance implies significantly higher costs in 4Q, reflecting full-scale mining and rising diesel and reagent prices, which may result in negative free cash flow.

The near-term outlook appears somewhat uncertain, with limited visibility on FY27 and exposure to external cost pressures.

Sell rating is retained, with the target price unchanged at $9.75.

Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $12.87 Difference: minus $3.12 (current price is over target).
If PDN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.74, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PDN as Neutral (3) -

Paladin Energy had largely pre-reported March quarter production with the focus in the latest update on the potential disruption from the Middle East war and the ramp up to nameplate by the end of FY26, UBS notes.

The broker expects current market sentiment will be negatively affected by the conflict, but remains constructive on the medium-long-term outlook, with the macro environment increasingly about energy security and diversity.

UBS notes, from an input perspective, Paladin has anywhere between 3-10 months supply of key reagents but would not be drawn into forward guidance on the ramifications of an extended conflict.

The broker remains of the view the company is in a better position versus peers given it is less exposed to tightening sulphur markets. Neutral rating and $12.60 target maintained.

Target price is $12.60 Current Price is $12.87 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If PDN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.74, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PPS as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter views the latest quarterly update from Praemium as positive, with signs of new client wins starting to have an impact, including improved flows into Spectrum, which was launched 15 months ago.

The "stabilisation" of Powerwrap is also considered as further upside potential, as well as management pointing to two key multi-year client renewals.

No change to Buy rating and $1.20 target. EPS forecasts are tweaked higher for FY26-FY27.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.76 Difference: $0.445
If PPS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PPS as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett views Praemium's 3Q26 update as mixed, with weaker FUA due to market impacts offset by improving net flows.

The broker notes strong momentum in flows, particularly in the Spectrum platform, alongside a third consecutive quarter of positive flows for Powerwrap.

Further benefits in FY27 from cost savings and integration synergies are flagged by the analyst, and earnings (EBITDA) forecasts are lowered by -2%-4% for FY26-FY28.

Buy rating is retained with a new target price of $1.05 from $1.15.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.76 Difference: $0.295
If PPS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PPT as Neutral (3) -

Perpetual’s 3Q26 Asset Management outflows showed some moderation compared to the prior quarter and 3Q25, highlights Citi.

However, JO Hambro and Barrow Hanley continue to see significant outflows, while the share of funds outperforming benchmarks declined further.

Funds under management (FUM) also declined due to market and FX impacts, while Corporate Trust delivered a steady performance, the broker observes.

Citi sees valuation as undemanding following the Wealth Management sale but expects a recovery to take time.

A Neutral rating is retained, with the target reduced to $17.00 from $17.30.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $16.37 Difference: $0.63
If PPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.43, suggesting upside of 25.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PPT as Outperform (1) -

Perpetual announced March quarter net outflows of -$2.8bn, which were in line with Macquarie's forecast but better than consensus and the prior quarter.

The broker highlights FUM of $219.2bn was ahead of expectations, supported by stronger fund performance.

Notably, there are improving asset management trends, with continued equity outflows offset by inflows into cash and fixed income, alongside mixed performance across business units.

Forecasts are upgraded, with EPS forecasts lifted by 3.7% for FY26 and 7.7% for FY27.

Outperform rating is retained, while the target price is raised to $21.60 from $20.15, with the analyst pointing to the Wealth sale and further cost-out potential.

Target price is $21.60 Current Price is $16.37 Difference: $5.23
If PPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.43, suggesting upside of 25.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REA as Buy (1) -

Citi notes March listings for REA Group accelerated, likely reflecting Easter timing rather than a structural shift in demand.

The broker forecasts 3Q26 group revenue growth of around 9% year-on-year, with the Australian business expected to grow 14%, supported by stronger listings momentum.

The analyst also sees potential for lower-than-expected operating cost growth in FY27 based on hiring trends, while India losses may benefit from a stronger Australian dollar.

Buy rating. Target $199.

Target price is $199.00 Current Price is $175.93 Difference: $23.07
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $214.86, suggesting upside of 23.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Buy (1) -

While South32's Q3 FY26 result revealed weaker copper, zinc and manganese production, Citi explains stronger aluminium output provided an offset.

Full-year guidance is unchanged, implying steady production in the final quarter, although Australian manganese remains impacted by high water levels, the broker notes.

A return to a net cash position highlights improving cash generation despite ongoing Hermosa project capex, the analysts note.

Citi expects limited changes to production forecasts, with higher aluminium and precious metal prices providing a positive mark-to-market impact on earnings. Target $5.40. Buy.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.50 Difference: $0.9
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.28, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights South32 was impacted by weather in its 3Q26 update, with all key commodities affected. FY26 guidance was largely retained.

Rising cost pressures across the portfolio were observed, with increases at Sierra Gorda and Worsley, alongside broader inflation risks from diesel, caustic and currency movements.

The broker flags Cannington as the key operational miss due to disrupted mining rates, although guidance is retained with recovery required in 2H.

EPS forecasts for FY26 are lowered by -4% following lower sales and higher costs, with minimal changes thereafter.

Outperform rating is retained, with target price unchanged at $5.80.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $4.50 Difference: $1.3
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.28, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

March quarter production from South32 overall was slightly below Morgan Stanley's estimates.

The broker had expected a working capital release but this did not eventuate, given lower sales across the board.

Aluminium production was stronger, with Mozal at 65,000t and up 14% compared with the broker's forecasts, ending above FY26 guidance.

Alumina production was in line with expectations. Plant availability issues hampered Worsley amid third-party gas disruptions from the cyclone.

Cannington silver production was lower than expected as floods hit grades and rail access with similar issues affecting copper production.

Manganese production was -13.6% below the broker's estimates.

Overweight. Target is $5. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.50 Difference: $0.5
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.28, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Buy (1) -

The March quarter production update from South32 was softer than UBS expected amid weather disruptions, although FY26 guidance is largely unchanged.

The broker notes Worsley production was below forecasts amid lower product availability and affected by the timing of shipments.

Alumar production was ahead of expectations as the refinery continues to operate above nameplate.

Sierra Gorda was below expectations as rainfall affected access to the mining area and copper processing operations were temporarily suspended.

Cannington was also weak, with higher processed ore offset by lower planned metal grades and further affected by rainfall.

Manganese production at GEMCO was also affected by site water levels and production guidance has been curtailed by -6%-7% to 3mt.

Buy rating and $5.20 target maintained.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.50 Difference: $0.7
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.28, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SCG as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights Scentre Group's subordinated debt tender as a strategic move to lower its cost of capital.

The company is offering to re-purchase US$1.31bn of subordinated notes at a premium, enabling refinancing with cheaper funding sources and improving its debt profile relative to peers.

If sufficient participation triggers a Substantial Repurchase Event, remaining notes could be redeemed at par, creating an incentive for holders to tender, the broker explains.

Target $4.40. Buy.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.64 Difference: $0.76
If SCG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.90, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SCG as Sell (5) -

Scentre Group has retained FY26 guidance for free funds from operations (FFO) of at least 23.73c per security and distribution of 18.43c, with debt margin compression from the refinancing of senior notes issued in covid already factored in.

The company has priced $750m in 6-year senior notes in the Australian DCM market at floating-rate BBSW plus 1.20% margin.

At face value, UBS points out this implies significant savings versus the company's in-place senior debt margins.

All up, the broker expects the refinancing benefits from the note issue will be more a 2027 story.

There were no major updates on Westfield Bondi in terms of development while the company has sold its $50m stake in a Dexus ((DXS)) fund following the December Westfield Chermside transaction.

Sell rating and $3.50 target unchanged.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.64 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If SCG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.90, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates STM as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans highlights Sunstone Metals' Bramaderos (gold-copper porphyry concession in Loja Province) scoping study as demonstrating strong project economics.

The broker highlights a long-life project, with a low-strip open pit producing around 120kozpa gold equivalent over 23 years at competitive costs.

It's noted the study is based on a 3.6Moz gold equivalent resource, with significant exploration upside across the broader project and additional potential from El Palmar.

The broker sees scope for further resource growth and value uplift as drilling progresses.

Morgans points to an attractive valuation relative to peers and substantial development optionality.

The broker's previous target price was 5.3c per share prior to the 1-for-30 consolidation, equivalent to $1.59 per share on a post-consolidation basis.

The amended target lands at 95c after a number of project valuation adjustments.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.555
If STM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 141% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SUL as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett reviews consumer sector coverage to reflect the prospect for higher interest rates as most data shows the domestic economy is still "hot", although consumer confidence is flagging in the face of an uncertain economic backdrop and the global energy shock.

The review has resulted in EPS estimates downgraded by -1%-12% across the broker's discretionary coverage, with cuts to targets for most stocks in the category.

There is pressure on inputs that rely on oil, such as foam packaging for furniture retailers as well as nylon, polyester and acrylic components for apparel and homewares.

Some companies and customer categories will feel a more specific impact from higher fuel costs such as the leisure-focused customers at Super Retail's BCF chain.

Ord Minnett upgrades Super Retail to Accumulate from Hold, reducing its price target to $16 from $17.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $12.35 Difference: $3.65
If SUL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.63, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Equal-weight (3) -

Treasury Wine Estates will transition to a new regional operating model from October 2026, reorganising the business into four regions: Americas; Australasia & Europe; Greater China; and emerging markets.

This new operating model is expected to improve execution and simplify operations while reducing duplication.

The company continues to expect second half EBITS will be higher than the first half and re-iterates FY26 guidance.

Penfolds delivered growth in China in the third quarter, with depletions up 40% during the Chinese New Year.

US depletions rose 9.1%, including a return to growth in California. Growth also occurred across Australasia and other Asian markets.

Morgan Stanley retains an Equal-weight rating and $5.10 target. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.72 Difference: $0.38
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.87, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VAU as Outperform (1) -

Vault Minerals 3Q26 production and sales volumes missed Macquarie's expectations, while AISC was mixed, missing the analyst's estimate by -7% but beating consensus by 2%.

The broker highlights a stronger balance sheet, with cash increasing to $728m, ahead of expectations.

Management retained FY26 production and cost guidance, although year to date costs are trending slightly above the guided range.

EPS forecasts are lowered by -7% for FY26, with estimates lifted slightly for FY27.

Outperform rating is retained with an unchanged target price of $7.70.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $4.88 Difference: $2.82
If VAU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.35, suggesting upside of 47.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VAU as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett points to a robust 3Q26 cash flow result from Vault Minerals, with free cash flow of $229m underpinned by lower costs and capital expenditure.

Production came in slightly below expectations but was offset by better cost control, with FY26 guidance maintained and operations tracking towards targets.

The broker points to improving fundamentals at KOTH and Mt Monger, which are expected to drive stronger free cash flow and higher yields into FY27.

Forecasts are broadly unchanged, with minor cost adjustments incorporated. Buy rating is retained, while the target price is increased to $7.30 from $7.10.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $4.88 Difference: $2.42
If VAU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.35, suggesting upside of 47.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VAU as Buy (1) -

March quarter production from Vault Minerals was slightly softer than expected while costs were roughly in line with UBS estimates.

The quarter marked the first period that was largely unhedged, which drove a step-change in cash generation and underlying free cash flow of $229m.

Cash and bullion rose to $728m at the end of the quarter.

The broker assesses the company will now need a stronger fourth quarter performance via KOTH throughput, after the plant upgrade was completed, in order to deliver FY26 production and cost guidance.

UBS also observes balance sheet strength has started flowing through to shareholders, highlighted by the maiden interim dividend of $0.07 paid in April alongside an ongoing buyback.

Buy rating retained. Target reduces to $7.05 from $7.10.

Target price is $7.05 Current Price is $4.88 Difference: $2.17
If VAU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.35, suggesting upside of 47.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WES as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett reviews consumer sector coverage to reflect the prospect for higher interest rates as most data shows the domestic economy is still "hot", although consumer confidence is flagging in the face of an uncertain economic backdrop and the global energy shock.

The review has resulted in EPS estimates downgraded by -1%-12% across the broker's discretionary coverage, with cuts to targets for most stocks in the category.

There is pressure on inputs that rely on oil, such as foam packaging for furniture retailers as well as nylon, polyester and acrylic components for apparel and homewares.

Some companies and customer categories will experience a more specific impact from higher fuel costs such as trade customers at Wesfarmers' Bunnings, Ord Minnett notes.

Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $69 from $80.

Target price is $69.00 Current Price is $74.32 Difference: minus $5.32 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $78.06, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources