Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates AL3 as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter emphasises the view of AML3D continuing to gain momentum with installed capacity, sales and parts manufacturing.

Notably a further $12.5m orders were placed over the March quarter bringing year-to-date orders of $20m excluding the $9m to start FY26.

The appointment of Larissa Smith as US defence adviser is considered as positive as well as the receipt of Letter of Intent from the US Navy for AML3D's products to be used for maritime purposes.

No change to Speculative Buy and 40c target price.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.195
If AL3 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 95% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALD as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley points out investors are looking through the current elevated crack spreads, preferring to observe more sustainable market conditions before capitalising margins.

Regional crack spreads are averaging US$42/bbl in the current quarter, although the broker anticipates crude premia will pressure margins.

Including Australia-bound cargoes, the broker contemplates demand management scenarios from July 2026. Petrol margins have averaged around $20.30/litre so far this year and diesel margins $17.20/litre.

Ampol will hold its AGM on May 14 and the broker favours it over Viva Energy. Overweight. Target is $35. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $33.83 Difference: $1.17
If ALD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.27, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALD as Buy (1) -

Ampol posted a March quarter refining margin from Lytton of US$25.45/bbl. On Ord Minnett's analysis the exit margin implies the margin for the month of March was as high as US$56/bbl.

This compares with margins in January and February that were "languishing" around US$8/bbl.

The broker suspects the broader market will have to make significant upgrades to forecasts for the first half of 2026.

In terms of supply security, the company has scheduled physical imports of diesel and jet fuel sufficient to supply the market to the end of May while petrol supply is secure until the end of June.

Ord Minnett re-iterates its view that refiners are the preferred choice to play the current volatility, given leverage to refining margins is higher than producer leverage to oil and LNG prices.

Ampol's target is raised to $36.00 from $35.50 with a Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $33.83 Difference: $2.17
If ALD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.27, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ALK as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter highlights Alkane Resources beat forecasts and guidance with its 3Q26 trading update, viewed as a robust quarter with a second consecutive period of record production for the merged Alkane and Mandalay assets.

AISC came in 9% above forecast and guidance at $2,928/oz due to higher diesel and other cost inputs while the realised antimony price declined to $34,900/t from $41,500/t on the prior quarter.

Cash on hand and bullion stood at $362m up from $232m with operating cash flow nearly reaching a record high of $189m.

Target price is lifted to $2.10 from $1.95 with no change to Buy rating. EPS forecasts are tweaked lower by -5% for FY26 and -2% for FY27 due to higher AISC assumptions.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.515
If ALK meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALL as Buy (1) -

UBS notes the Aristocrat Leisure AGM update in February indicated FY26 would have a second half skew. For the March half the broker forecasts EBITA of $1.12bn and net profit of $798m. This reflects constant currency growth of 15%.

Ahead of the result, due May 13, UBS points to the key issues: net installations in gaming operations versus guidance; cost growth in Product Madness; and the impact of portfolio changes including the exit of Big Fish and the iGaming white label exit.

Buy rating. Target edges down to $68.90 from $69.00.

Target price is $68.90 Current Price is $48.23 Difference: $20.67
If ALL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $64.96, suggesting upside of 40.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALX as Neutral (3) -

Atlas Arteria has received an off-market takeover bid from IFM Investors at $4.75 per security, rising to $5.10 if IFM's stake exceeds 45%.

Citi notes the initial offer represents a 9.7% premium to the last close, increasing to 17.8% at the higher price, with IFM already holding around 35% of the register.

While the bid highlights previously flagged takeover potential, the broker considers the valuation (as offered) somewhat low, reflecting the relatively short concession life and limited dividend growth.

Neutral rating. Target $4.80.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.91 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If ALX meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALX as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie points to the IFM bid for Atlas Arteria at $4.75 with an uplift to $5.10 if it reaches 45%-plus holding in the toll road operator. The current shareholding sits at around 34.5%.

The broker doesn't view the "best and final price" is $5.10 rather it reflects a means to obtain more than just a 3% creep on the share register rather than a full takeover.

Notably IFM made a non-binding indicative bid of $8.10 in June 2022 which was rejected by Atlas Arteria and when adjusted for dividends and Skyway rights issue dilution, the analyst estimates the equivalent price is $6.15.

If IFM's bid goes ahead, and change of control is managed, Macquarie believes growth ambitions will be removed and a refocus on the existing toll road business will be put in place.

Outperform rating and $5.02 target unchanged.

Target price is $5.02 Current Price is $4.91 Difference: $0.11
If ALX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALX as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Atlas Arteria has received an unsolicited takeover bid from its 35% major shareholder, IFM Investors, for the remaining 65% of securities it does not own. The offer has been structured at $4.75 per security, rising to $5.10 if acceptances take it to a threshold of 45% or above.

The company has advised shareholders to take no action while the board considers the offer. Ord Minnett raises the target to the offer price of $4.75 a share while downgrading the rating to Hold from Accumulate.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.91 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If ALX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CCL as Buy (1) -

Cuscal has indicated that the French Works Council consultation process has been completed and the acquisition of Paymark will be completed one month earlier than originally indicated.

Execution and delivery on strategic acquisitions has underwritten Ord Minnett's forecast for around 20% compound growth in EPS through to FY30.

Despite the strong share price performance since Cuscal's listing, the broker envisages further upside for investors at current prices and retains a Buy rating with a $5.45 target.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $4.81 Difference: $0.64
If CCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CHC as Buy (1) -

Citi updates its forecasts for Charter Hall to reflect recent macro and interest rate changes, lowering funds under management (FUM) expectations and investment earnings forecasts due to higher debt costs.

The analysts explain these impacts are partly offset by lower overheads into FY27, as elevated incentive costs unwind, along with reduced tax expenses.

Despite the higher rate environment, Citi expects solid EPS growth in FY27, with a double-digit growth outlook supported by cost discipline.

Buy rating retained. Target lowered to $23.00 from $26.40.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $19.90 Difference: $3.1
If CHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.56, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CLW as Buy (1) -

Citi updates its estimates for Charter Hall Long WALE REIT to reflect a higher interest rate forecast, largely offset by CPI-linked rent escalation across more than half the portfolio.

Earnings revisions are modest, though the broker's target is reduced to $4.10 from $4.40, driven by a higher risk profile and more conservative asset value assumptions.

The broker highlights an attractive valuation, with the stock trading at a significant discount to net tangible assets (NTA) and potential for asset values to remain supported. Citi retains its Buy rating.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: $0.56
If CLW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.80, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVT as Buy (1) -

EVT Ltd's trading update included downgraded EBITDA guidance for the hotel division, which reflects softening demand from international inbound guests, corporate travel and conferences.

FY26 EBITDA is now expected to be "marginally up" for hotels while entertainment is expected to achieve "reasonable growth" amid a strong result in German cinema.

Ord Minnett updates estimates to reflect changes in guidance, resulting in the target falling to $16.41 from $17.31. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $16.41 Current Price is $12.45 Difference: $3.96
If EVT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.40, suggesting upside of 36.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FCL as Outperform (1) -

Fineos Corp announced free cash flow for 1Q2026 of EUR11.1m which aligns with guidance, Macquarie notes, to "continue to grow profitability and cash generation outcome for FY26."

Cash came in at EUR47.1m, a rise of EUR19.3m, and is noted for being seasonally robust and represented 165% of free cash flow for the last 12-months.

Management retained FY26 revenue guidance of EUR147m-EUR152m, with Macquarie estimating EUR147m.

Outperform retained with an unchanged target of $3.50.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.73 Difference: $0.77
If FCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Accumulate (2) -

Fortescue has added -US$680m in capital expenditure to accelerate development of its Pilbara green energy plan on top of the -US$6.2bn already allocated for decarbonisation.

Ord Minnett observes the announcement overshadowed March quarter iron ore shipments that met market expectations while unit costs came in lower, underpinned by a revised mine plan and reduced maintenance.

The company has also announced a review of the Pilbara portfolio with recommendations expected in three months.

Ord Minnett incorporates the increased risk around expenditure on the green energy program while lower-than-expected costs mean a 1.5% upgrade to FY26 EPS estimates.

Target is reduced to $20.00 from $22.50 and an Accumulate rating is retained.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $19.77 Difference: $0.23
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.19, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

March quarter production from Fortescue was largely in line with UBS estimates. FY26 guidance has been downgraded because of the impact of the cyclones at Iron Bridge. Shipment guidance for FY26 is unchanged at 195-205mt.

The company has announced a -US$680m investment to rapidly develop new green energy infrastructure in the Pilbara for third parties, incremental to the -US$6.2bn allocated for decarbonisation.

UBS adjusts for higher costs and marking to market FX with the result EPS is reduced -3-4% over FY27-FY28. Neutral retained. Target is reduced to $19.40 from $20.40.

Target price is $19.40 Current Price is $19.77 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.19, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GNC as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Conflict in the Middle East has flagged both positive and negative outcomes for GrainCorp, Ord Minnett observes, while recent forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology and commentary on El Nino set up a "potentially ugly scenario" for FY27 crop volumes.

Disruptions from the Middle East war in the second half should have a positive effect on earnings, although the materially higher fertiliser, energy and chemical input costs could reduce winter crop plantings further, as well as FY27 grain volumes, the broker explains.

FY26 EBITDA estimates are increased by 11% to $244m because of price movements while FY27 and FY28 estimates are reduced by -25% and -23%, respectively, because of anticipated lower volumes.

Target is reduced to $7.25 from $8.60 and the rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.

Target price is $7.25 Current Price is $6.45 Difference: $0.8
If GNC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.89, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IGO as Neutral (3) -

Citi assesses a weak March quarter result for IGO, with spodumene production missing consensus due to lower grades, weaker recoveries and operational instability.

Cash costs rose sharply, the analyst highlights, prompting a downgrade to production guidance, with some issues appearing systemic and currently under strategic review.

While the Nova operations delivered a stronger contribution, this is seen as largely one-off given the asset's closure trajectory. Citi also flags risks around project timing following lower capex guidance.

Neutral rating. Target $9.30.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $7.32 Difference: $1.98
If IGO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.15, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IGO as Buy (1) -

IGO Ltd delivered production from Greenbushes in the March quarter of 351,000t that missed expectations, largely because of lower grades and weaker recoveries. CGP3 contributed only 33,000t in the quarter following a slow ramp up.

Unit costs also rose around 20%. UBS tempers its FY27 outlook yet remains positive about medium term optimisation and growth.

UBS is increasingly more positive on lithium as markets tighten. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $9.75 from $9.05.

Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $7.32 Difference: $2.43
If IGO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.15, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IPX as Speculative Buy (1) -

As Bell Potter explains, IperionX transitioned to 24/7 operations from commissioning activities over the March quarter at its US titanium manufacturing campus and averaged around 50tpa by March, with 200tpa aimed for by the end of 2026.

Notably, the -US$75m expansion to 1,400tpa which has been essentially funded by the US Dept of War will come on stream in 2027.

At the end of the 3Q26, cash on hand was US$48.2m, down from US$468.5m in the prior quarter with no debt.

As capacity expands, the analyst flags increasing commercial tie ups with aerospace, auto, luxury goods and government customers.

Target price is lowered to $8.25 from $49.25 due to a higher risk profile assumed ahead of commercial contracts.

No change to Speculative Buy rating.

Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $4.27 Difference: $3.98
If IPX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 93% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JDO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie points to strong momentum evident in the Judo Capital's underlying business at the 3Q26 trading update with good revenue generation and ongoing growth in the lending book.

Credit quality, like with its larger banking peers, remains the focus for the analyst, with management guiding to bad and doubtful debts of around 70bps-75bps in FY26 resulting in an increase in provisions.

Management has retained FY26 profit before tax guidance of around $180m-$190m. Macquarie believes Judo can achieve better than guided margins in 2H26 and forecasts 3.17% with funding providing a tailwind.

EPS forecasts are trimmed by -7% for FY26 and -2% for FY27. No change to Outperform rating and $1.85 target.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.42
If JDO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.12, suggesting upside of 44.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JDO as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Judo Capital delivered a March quarter update which reaffirmed FY26 earnings guidance, although now emphasising the lower end of the range of $180-190m in pre-tax profit as it has conservatively topped up its expected loan loss provision.

Morgans considers recent weakness in the share price as a buying opportunity, given the high growth potential in the stock. The company does not intend to pay dividends at the moment, retaining capital to support its significant loan growth aspirations.

While it is high risk versus the major banks, as a challenger operating entirely in the SME banking space, the broker expects capital appreciation will be driven by "stellar earnings growth" across FY26-FY28.

By the end of this decade Morgans is punting on the stock being worth close to $3/share. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate. Target is $2.09.

Target price is $2.09 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.66
If JDO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.12, suggesting upside of 44.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LOV as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reckons the Lovisa Holdings share price already reflects concerns around rising interest rates and the inflationary impacts from the war in the Middle East.

The company is highlighted for being a beneficiary of customers trading down as its offering is at one of the cheapest price points with over an 80% gross margin moat, the analyst stresses.

The new store rollout is also kicking goals with 1H26 revenue per store growth up 14% in the EU, and 16% in the US. This is viewed as being broadly on track with expectations.

The stock price is down some -38% in the past six months and is trading at the lower end of its valuation range with co-founder/Chairman Brett Blundy having acquired shares for around $14m in March.

No change to Outperform rating and $30.50 target.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $23.79 Difference: $6.71
If LOV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.35, suggesting upside of 29.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes the divergence in the Qld versus the rest of Australia homebuilder markets with 50% of builders anticipating a fall in volumes over the next three months.

While taking note of potential earnings downside risks to consensus forecasts for Mirvac Group and Stockland ((SGP)), the analyst reckons both share prices are discounting an "overly pessimistic" outlook.

Qld is noted as having been more resilient than Victoria, where a noticeable decline in demand from investors has been evidenced due to potential changes in CGT government policy in the upcoming budget.

While higher land and building costs are pushing buyers to smaller blocks and house sizes, "shrinkflation" as master plans are changed to smaller developments at lower prices.

The market is considered as under-appreciating the impact of higher for longer rates on residential volumes, pricing and margins.

Outperform rating maintained. Target $2.22. Earnings (EBITDA) forecasts are lowered by -19% for FY27 for Mirvac Group.

Target price is $2.22 Current Price is $1.72 Difference: $0.5
If MGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.00, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MIN as Buy (1) -

UBS updates estimates, forecasting a higher lithium price. The broker continues to expect lithium to be strongly supported by fundamentals such as robust growth in BESS and emergent EV demand as the Middle East conflict induces a global energy crisis.

As a result of the conflict, cost inflation related to diesel and broader macro factors offset this to some extent, so earnings forecasts for Mineral Resources are softer in the short term.

The company's lithium assets, excluding mining services contract tonnage, account for 28% of the broker's calculated enterprise value. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $73 from $66.

Target price is $73.00 Current Price is $59.01 Difference: $13.99
If MIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $70.00, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MP1 as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights strong momentum in Megaport's Latitude offering following a softer first half impacted by deal timing and server delivery delays.

The broker upgrades its annual recurring revenue (ARR) and earnings (EBITDA) forecasts, reflecting improved growth expectations despite ongoing FX headwinds. Further upside potential is expected driven by strong incremental margins.

While near-term capex intensity may rise, this is supported by attractive returns and payback profiles, the analyst assures.

Citi re-iterates a Buy rating and lifts its target to $15.00 from $14.65.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $9.34 Difference: $5.66
If MP1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.09, suggesting upside of 69.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MP1 as Buy (1) -

Megaport has received a major contract for computing and storage worth US$25.1m from a US-based unlisted technology business operating in the development tool sector. UBS assesses this contract de-risks around 20% of FY27 US compute revenue growth.

It is also a positive indication of some of the new larger scale opportunities opening up for the business. Analysis suggests the company could reach the top end of revenue guidance and the broker retains a Buy rating and $14.65 target.

Target price is $14.65 Current Price is $9.34 Difference: $5.31
If MP1 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.09, suggesting upside of 69.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MVP as Buy (1) -

Medical Developments International announced a rise in 3Q26 revenue of around 17.9% y/y with year to date revenue up 10.3% y/y.

Notably, the quarter would have achieved stronger revenue were it not for around -$1m impact from the respiratory division, Bell Potter explains.

The analyst points to this quarter as seasonally strongest. The update was well received, the report observes, with demand for Penthrox from the domestic government sector up circa 19%, off a low base.

European in-market demand had volume growth of 19%. Year-to-date cash flow around $2.8m compared to circa $1m last year in the same period.

No change to Buy rating and 85c target. EPS forecasts remain unchanged.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.37
If MVP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 77% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NEM as Buy (1) -

Citi assesses Newmont Corp delivered a strong 1Q26 result, with EBITDA and earnings materially beating expectations, supported by higher production and lower costs. Adjusted EPS of US$2.90 compared to the US$2.25 forecast by consensus.

Production and cost guidance were unchanged, with management signaling confidence in operational performance despite a softer 2Q outlook, the analyst observes.

Free cash flow (FCF) was robust, in the analyst's view, enabling the board to authorise a further US$6bn buyback, reinforcing management's focus on shareholder returns.

Citi expects the stock to outperform and re-iterates a Buy rating. Target $215.

Target price is $215.00 Current Price is $166.16 Difference: $48.84
If NEM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $203.00, suggesting upside of 27.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NST as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Northern Star Resources delivered a quarterly result that slightly exceeded Ord Minnett's expectations in terms of costs.

KCGM capital expenditure remains unchanged in FY26 but increases by $75m in FY27 because of poor construction productivity, cost inflation and delayed expenditure on the thermal power plant/transmission structure.

Ord Minnett observes the business is entering a higher-risk phase as the mill expansion is completed. Estimates for FY27 are moderated which results in a reduction in the target to $22.70 from $23.40 and the rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate.

Target price is $22.70 Current Price is $22.14 Difference: $0.56
If NST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.79, suggesting upside of 29.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ONE as Speculative Buy (1) -

Oneview Healthcare announced March quarter cash receipts of around EUR3.3m, a fall of -22.9% y/y which Bell Potter attributes to timing issues around receipts compared to the previous year.

Lower operating costs flowed through due to business restructuring in 2025 while net operating cash flow came in flat at around EUR1.3m.

The company had a cash balance of EUR10.3m versus EUR4.6m in the previous quarter from the recent placement.

This offers eight quarters of funding for operations, Bell Potter observes.

Speculative Buy rating and 45c target unchanged. EPS forecasts remain unchanged with the broker assuming around 20% growth annually in live endpoints from FY26-FY28.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.275
If ONE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 157% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Production volumes in the March quarter at APLNG were in line, although softer domestic gas prices drag sales revenue for Origin Energy slightly lower.

UBS expects the winter heating season will consume surplus supply, which will reconnect gas prices to LNG netback prices. If this occurs, it adds upside risk for FY27 wholesale electric prices or near-term electric futures.

The main takeaway from the company's third quarter release was a downgrade to FY26 guidance for Octopus Energy EBITDA, now $70-30m and implying a -$70m cut to consensus estimates at the new midpoint.

Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $14.10 from $14.30.

Target price is $14.10 Current Price is $12.13 Difference: $1.97
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.10, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Neutral (3) -

PLS Group delivered a strong March quarter, Citi comments, with production and costs 'beating' consensus forecasts and supported by solid cash generation.

The analyst explains operational performance improved on higher mining volumes, stable recoveries and stronger grades, while sales lagged production, providing a potential tailwind into the next quarter.

FY26 guidance remains unchanged.

Key growth initiatives, including the Ngungaju restart (the second processing plant at the Pilgangoora operation) and the mid-stream project (to upgrade spodumene concentrate) are progressing as planned.

Citi retains a Neutral rating with a $5.25 target.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $5.93 Difference: minus $0.68 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.54, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PRU as Outperform (1) -

Perseus Mining delivered 3Q production in line with the consensus forecast, Macquarie notes. Gold sales were weaker-than-expected due to timing impacts, weighing on cash generation.

Costs (AISC) missed consensus by -4%, with guidance maintained despite ongoing fuel cost pressures, the analyst explains.

Commentary notes completion of the Meyas Sand divestment strengthens the balance sheet, providing additional financial flexibility.

Macquarie trims its FY26 earnings forecast but maintains an Outperform rating and $6.50 target, citing solid operational performance and an improving financial position.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.59 Difference: $0.91
If PRU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.74, suggesting upside of 22.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QOR as Buy (1) -

The third quarter result from Qoria was "mixed", in Ord Minnett's view. Underlying revenue was slightly below expectations although robust growth was demonstrated. FX headwinds meant group annual recurring revenue was below the broker's forecasts. Free cash flow also fell short.

The broker notes Aura's pre-deal capital raising has been raised to $100m from $75m and repriced at an implied Qoria share price of $0.40, driving a modest post-money dilution to Qoria shareholders.

A higher net cash balance is now anticipated at the close of the merger. Buy. Target is reduced to $0.56 from $0.74.

Target price is $0.56 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.3
If QOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 115% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RMD as Buy (1) -

Ahead of the third quarter results from ResMed, UBS makes channel checks which indicate the US sleep segment has had a weak start albeit a solid finish to the quarter.

Allowing for modest share loss in devices and a boost from the VirtuOx acquisition, the broker expects 9% sales growth from North America. Sales outside of the US will benefit from a weaker US dollar that should ensure strong reported sales growth.

The broker expects further sequential gross margin expansion, underpinned by FX, manufacturing efficiencies and product mix, offset by modest price reductions. Buy rating and US$345 target.

Current Price is $30.48. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $46.66, suggesting upside of 52.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Outperform (1) -

Regis Resources' 3Q result was broadly in line with Macquarie's expectations, with costs beating consensus by 4%. FY26 production and cost guidance was reaffirmed.

Growth capital expenditure was raised, reflecting higher pre-stripping, timing shifts and increased diesel costs, the analyst explains.

Commentary points to ongoing uncertainty around the McPhillamys project timeline, despite progress on alternative pathways.

Macquarie trims its earnings forecasts and lowers its target by -20c to $9.50. Outperform rating kept given strong resource growth and a shareholder-focused capital management approach.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $7.41 Difference: $2.09
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.81, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RSG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Resolute Mining's 1QCY26 result slightly missed expectations on both production and costs, though guidance for the full year remains unchanged.

The broker highlights ongoing cost pressures from fuel and logistics, with potential for further increases if current conditions persist.

Encouragingly, development of the Doropo project is progressing, with construction underway and first production targeted for 1H of 2028, the analyst highlights.

Doropo is a large-scale open-pit gold development project located in Cote d'Ivoire in West Africa.

Macquarie lowers its target to $1.80 from $1.85 and retains an Outperform rating, noting project execution at Doropo is a key focus for investors.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.29 Difference: $0.51
If RSG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RWC as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, Citi believes Reliance Worldwide delivered a solid update today, reaffirming FY26 guidance, with tariff impacts broadly offsetting and recent geopolitical pressures arriving too late to affect current-year outcomes.

The broker highlights pricing actions in the UK and Australia should largely offset higher resin costs into 1H27, though uncertainty remains around US pricing power amid customer consolidation.

Citi also points to input cost timing lags, with resin and copper impacts expected to flow through earnings over coming months.

While guidance reaffirmation is considered positive, the key question remains the extent of US price recovery into 1H27, the broker posits.

Neutral rating and $3.90 target.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: $0.86
If RWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.85, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SFR as Outperform (1) -

Sandfire's 3Q copper production of 22.9kt was pre-reported, Macquarie notes.

Elsewhere, the analyst highlights a strong cost performance driven by higher realised by-product prices, though revenue and EBITDA modestly missed consensus. Motheo and Matsa cash costs beat consensus by 17% and 32%, respectively.

The broker also highlights improving net cash, rising by around US$63m quarter-on-quarter.

While FY26 guidance is unchanged, volumes are now expected in the lower half of the range, implying a stronger 4Q is required.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and raises its target by 10c to $19.30.

Target price is $19.30 Current Price is $17.22 Difference: $2.08
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.59, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGP as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes the divergence in Qld versus the rest of Australia homebuilder markets with 50% of builders anticipating a fall in volumes over the next three months.

While noting potential earnings downside risks to consensus forecasts for Mirvac Group ((MGR)) and Stockland, the analyst reckons both share prices are discounting an "overly pessimistic" outlook.

Qld is noted as having been more resilient than Victoria, where a noticeable decline in demand from investors has been evidenced due to potential changes in CGT government policy in the upcoming budget.

While higher land and building costs is pushing buyers to smaller blocks and house sizes, "shrinkflation" as master plans are changed to smaller developments at lower prices.

The market is considered as under-appreciating the impact of higher for longer rates on residential volumes, pricing and margins.

Outperform rating maintained for Stockland with $4.42 target. Funds from operations forecast (post tax) is lowered by -9% for FY27.

Target price is $4.42 Current Price is $4.16 Difference: $0.26
If SGP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.72, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SNS as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter highlights SenSen Networks missed its 2Q26 forecasts with a fall in cash receipts of -14% y/y to $3.2m although net operating cash flow rose over 100% y/y to $0.9m.

Annual recurring revenue lifted by 17% y/y and the company ended with a net debt position of $0.2m against the analyst's net cash expectations.

Management noted the current "economic uncertainty" and supply chain challenges resulting in a delay in upselling to existing customers which the broker attributes to the reason for the results miss.

Guidance for 2H26 revenue is expected to be in line with the previous year while FY26 earnings (EBITDA) was guided up on FY25.

Target slips to 10c from 12c with no change to Buy rating.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.062
If SNS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 163% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Despite minor delays at Barossa and Pikka, Macquarie observes Santos delivered solid 1Q volumes, with guidance maintained and ramp-up of key growth projects imminent.

Commentary points to improving free cash flow (FCF) as capex declines, with investor focus shifting to execution and upcoming catalysts, including the May Investor Day.

It's felt strategic initiatives, including potential divestment of domestic assets, may unlock value and simplify the portfolio.

Macquarie lowers its target to $8.60 from $8.75 and retains an Outperform rating, citing attractive valuation and the improving cash flow outlook.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $7.65 Difference: $0.95
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.16, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SUN as Hold (3) -

Suncorp Group has secured a five-year aggregate reinsurance deal providing for annual protection of $800m and up to a total of $2.4bn over FY27-FY31.

Ord Minnett notes the agreement represents a material reduction in the risk to earnings over the term of the deal.

It also means the general insurer captures potential upside from what is considered conservative assumptions on which the deal was struck.

The expected reduction in claims volatility also allows the insurer to make a one-off capital release of $100m.

Ord Minnett increases its target to $19.50 from $18.00 to incorporate lower earnings volatility and a higher price-to-earnings multiple. Hold maintained.

Target price is $19.50 Current Price is $16.77 Difference: $2.73
If SUN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.99, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUN as Buy (1) -

Suncorp Group has taken advantage of improved reinsurance pricing to better insulate earnings and capital going forward through a multi-year aggregate reinsurance cover.

UBS asserts, while higher costs for reinsurance temper the outlook, the trade-off of a moderate earnings headwind for a material reduction in downside is a significant positive.

The new aggregate reinsurance provides $2.4bn of cover over five years from FY27. UBS retains a Buy rating and increases its target to $19.60 from $19.25.

Target price is $19.60 Current Price is $16.77 Difference: $2.83
If SUN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.99, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VEA as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley points out investors are looking through the current elevated crack spreads, preferring to observe more sustainable market conditions before capitalising margins.

Regional crack spreads are averaging US$42/bbl in the current quarter, although the broker anticipates crude premia will pressure margins.

Including Australia-bound cargoes, the broker contemplates demand management scenarios from July 2026. Petrol margins have averaged around $20.30/litre so far this year and diesel margins $17.20/litre.

Viva Energy will hold its AGM on May 21. The company remains in commercial discussions for its proposed LNG import facility at Geelong, targeting FID in early 2026, although Morgan Stanley anticipates the focus will be on the repair of the Geelong refinery.

Equal-weight with a $2.56 target. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.56 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: $0.25
If VEA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.87, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WAF as Outperform (1) -

West African Resources delivered a solid 1Q result, according to Macquarie, with costs beating expectations following stronger performance at Kiaka. Costs (AISC) of -US$1,921/oz beat the consensus forecast by 6%.

However, the Burkina Faso government's increased stake in Kiaka reduces the company's ownership to 60% from 85%, driving earnings downgrades and a lower valuation, the analyst explains.

A strong net cash position is noted, with Macquarie citing potential for capital returns, including a maiden dividend.

The broker lowers its target by -11% to $4.00 and maintains an Outperform rating, with capital management a key near-term focus.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $0.8
If WAF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WOR as Buy (1) -

Citi lowers its earnings forecasts for Worley to reflect higher interest costs following refinancing, which is expected to create an around -$35m headwind to FY27 earnings.

The broker also notes moderated FY26 earnings (EBITA) growth guidance due to Middle East-related project delays and slower contract awards.

The analyst does suggest risks are increasingly priced in, with the stock trading below historical valuation averages.

A constructive medium-term view is maintained, supported by energy and security-driven demand. Buy rating unchanged. Target falls to $14.00 from $17.00.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $11.82 Difference: $2.18
If WOR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.92, suggesting upside of 18.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates WRK as Speculative Buy (1) -

Over the 3Q26 Wrkr's RestPay went live and AustralianSuper has moved into full production release. Bell Potter viewed this as a positive given the delay to Match from February.

Notably, the speed and scale of execution has surprised to the upside with more than 6k organisations onboarded and $100m contributions processed, with the analyst pointing to improved daily run rate.

The broker reckons FY27 revenue could rise up to $35m with management flagging large industry funds and their employers will proceed ahead of the deadline as part of the qualitative guidance.

Cash receipts came in at $4.3m. Target slips to 17.5c from 18.1c with no change in Speculative Buy rating.

Target price is $0.18 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.06
If WRK meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources