Australian Broker Call

UBS rates A1N as Sell (5) -

UBS's first thoughts post ARN Media's update at the AGM noted radio breakfast declines in the low-mid single digits which was offset by digital.

Breakfast radio was weaker than the analyst's forecast of -1% with the 1H25 impacted by the Federal Election. The cost out was reaffirmed by management.

Sell rated with a 20c target.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If A1N meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.32, suggesting upside of 21.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALX as Equal-weight (3) -

Media reports reveal Atlas Arteria has appointed advisers to potentially sell its interest in the Chicago Skyway. Morgan Stanley values Atlas' share of the Skyway at US$1.2bn or $1.13 per security.

Atlas Arteria has received some $332m in distributions and re-gearing proceeds from the Skyway since 2022. The broker estimates 2026 distributions of $36m.

Atlas has not commented on use of proceeds if a sale were to close, but has a modest $5-10m growth budget to assess brownfield OECD toll roads.

Equal-weight and $4.71 target retained.

Target price is $4.71 Current Price is $4.80 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If ALX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.67, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALX as Upgrade to Hold from Trim (3) -

Atlas Arteria has recommended investors ignore the hostile bid from IFM Global Infrastructure Fund, asserting the offer price is too low and the timing opportunistic.

The company has also indicated it has initiated a sale process for its 66.7% interest in Chicago Skyway which Morgans assesses, if successful, could be value accretive.

Atlas Arteria pointed out the notice of the Skyway sale, to Ontario Teachers Pension Plan, was issued five days before IFM announced its takeover bid and the existence of this right of first offer is a breach of a condition of the IFM offer.

While the divestment process is underway, the broker eases the rating to Hold from Trim. Target is $4.22.

Target price is $4.22 Current Price is $4.80 Difference: minus $0.58 (current price is over target).
If ALX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.67, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMC as Buy (1) -

According to Citi, Amcor announced a mixed 3Q26 result with earnings (EBIT) a slight miss against consensus and EPS was in line while revenue beat.

Impacts of the Middle East war were reflected in management's marginal downgrade in FY26 guidance for EPS to US$3.98-US$4.03 from US$4-US$4.15.

Free cash flow guidance was also trimmed with a rise in inventory costs and changes to interest charges assumptions and the effective tax rate to 16%-17% from 17%-20%.

The analyst highlights the implied 4Q26 EPS of US$1.19-US$1.24 post guidance update is above consensus forecasts of US$1.17 including $100m of cost synergies.

Buy rated. Target $75.

Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $54.73 Difference: $20.27
If AMC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $69.71, suggesting upside of 27.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMC as Outperform (1) -

Amcor posted a third quarter outcome that missed Macquarie's estimates at the EBITDA line largely because of a -$25m impact from winter storms in the US, offset by a lower tax rate.

Full year guidance remains better than generally expected and the broker finds raw materials are being well managed.

There remains potential for cost-of-living impacts on demand although Macquarie assesses the company's consumer staples end markets remain defensive. Outperform. Target is lowered to $72.00 from $84.63.

Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $54.73 Difference: $17.27
If AMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $69.71, suggesting upside of 27.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AMC as Buy (1) -

Morgans notes, while Amcor's March quarter earnings were largely in line, guidance has been downgraded although the EPS guidance of US$0.96 was better than feared.

The main positives include synergy benefits from Berry, progress on portfolio optimisation and further non-core asset divestments.

Negatives include a reduction to free cash flow guidance and leverage at the end of FY26 now expected to be higher than previously anticipated. The broker retains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $65.40 from $68.20.

Target price is $65.40 Current Price is $54.73 Difference: $10.67
If AMC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $69.71, suggesting upside of 27.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMC as Buy (1) -

Amcor reported March Q earnings per share in line with expectations, Ord Minnett notes, although weaker operating cash flow prompted management to lower full-year guidance for both earnings and cash flow.

Despite the guidance downgrade, the share price rose following the result, which in the broker's view reflects investor relief that the downgrade was not materially worse than feared.

With guidance now reset, Ord Minnett believes near-term expectations have been sufficiently cleared and valuation support is becoming more evident.

Reflecting lower near-term earnings expectations, the broker's target has been reduced to $63 from $66. Buy retained as current valuation levels appear attractive for patient investors.

Target price is $63.00 Current Price is $54.73 Difference: $8.27
If AMC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $69.71, suggesting upside of 27.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASG as Buy (1) -

Autosports Group 3Q26 update revealed luxury continues to outperform, growing 4.3% full year to date to April against the total car market which lifted 0.7% over the same period.

The model refresh pipeline for BMW, Mercedes and Audi was a boost with a possible tailwind if the changes to the luxury vehicle tax go ahead.

Notably, BEV sales were very robust, up 92% over the same period with new vehicle order books now the highest ever achieved including Polestar, Zeekr and Geely sites.

Volvo declined over the period by -7%. Investing in BEV is expected to result in more employment expenses in FY26.

UBS believes the prestige/luxury market will hold up better than the mass market over the next year with EV exposure another positive.

Buy. Target $4.90 unchanged.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $2.39 Difference: $2.51
If ASG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 105% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BHP as Hold (3) -

Morgans assesses underlying mine performance held up well across diversified miners during the cyclone and weather disrupted March quarter yet cost pressures are starting to have an impact after the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, affecting diesel, caustic and freight.

BHP Group continues to demonstrate best-in-class fundamentals and should be a "solid cornerstone" for investors, the broker asserts.

The stock is preferred in a "forced ranking" compared with Rio Tinto and a Hold rating is maintained with the target raised to $54.90 from $53.80.

Target price is $54.90 Current Price is $58.52 Difference: minus $3.62 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $54.40, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BLX as Buy (1) -

Following the third RBA rate hike, and the effect of intensified geopolitical events on global supply chains, petrol prices and consumer sentiment, Bell Potter has adjusted expectations for Beacon Lighting's Retail business.

Recent data on auction clearance rates has shown the lowest monthly clearance rate since 2020. More positively, renovation spend has increased while building approvals for houses grew 12.0% year on year in March, supporting a positive outlook for the Trade segment.

Bell Potter reduces its target PE multiple from 19x to 15x, applying a discount to the Retail business even as the broker continues to incorporate double-digit growth expectations for Beacon's Trade business.

The growth outlook for Beacon's Trade business is built off expectations that homeowners are choosing to invest in and refurbish their existing homes rather than relocate. Target falls to $2.05 from $2.85, Buy retained.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.44
If BLX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.40, suggesting upside of 40.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BPT as Sell (5) -

The federal government's new Australian Domestic Gas Reservation Policy expands upon its Dec-2025 position and requires all LNG exporters to supply 20% of total LNG export production volumes to domestic markets from July 2027.

UBS interprets the policy as applying only to uncontracted, spot gas sales and to prospective gas projects. The broker has lowered its forecasts for East coast uncontracted wholesale gas prices over 2028-2030 by -15%-20%, now assuming $12/GJ (real 2028).

The follow-on impact is reduced forecasts and valuations for energy companies under coverage.

Beach Energy's price target has lost -9% to $1. Sell.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: minus $0.095 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.10, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CCP as Buy (1) -

Credit Corp has upgraded FY26 consumer lending guidance to $420-430m while the lower end of the FY26 ledger investment guidance was raised slightly.

Morgans observes both PDL businesses showed stronger momentum than the first half trajectory implied, with US collections up 27% and Australasian collections up 34%.

Sustained momentum alongside conversion of the US scale-up is key to a re-rating in the broker's opinion and a Buy rating is maintained. Target is reduced to $19.15 from $19.35.

Target price is $19.15 Current Price is $11.81 Difference: $7.34
If CCP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

UBS highlights CSL's US competitor ADMA March sales for Bivigam, the company's premium intravenous immunoglobulin products, were down -54%.

Due to the product's positioning, a read through for Ig suppliers like CSL is not linear, but it does suggest to the analyst the comments on Ig oversupply and slowing demand are worse than expected and a negative for CSL.

The more relevant peers Grifols and Takeda are due to report shortly, UBS adds.

Target $205. Buy rated.

Target price is $205.00 Current Price is $122.00 Difference: $83
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $194.48, suggesting upside of 61.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DRR as Buy (1) -

Morgans assesses underlying mine performance held up well across diversified miners during the cyclone and weather disrupted March quarter yet cost pressures are starting to have an impact after the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, affecting diesel, caustic and freight.

The broker considers Deterra Royalties unique in its coverage. As a royalty company it is naturally on a higher multiple but remains trading at a sharp discount to global precious metal peers.

There is free cash flow over multi-decades from Mining Area C and the free option is in Thacker Pass lithium with first production due in late 2027. Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $5.10 from $4.85.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.33 Difference: $0.77
If DRR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.50, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FMG as Hold (3) -

Morgans assesses underlying mine performance held up well across diversified miners during the cyclone and weather disrupted March quarter yet cost pressures are starting to have an impact after the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, affecting diesel, caustic and freight.

Fortescue is holding the line on volumes and costs in its core business, the broker adds, but struggles with magnetite, which does little to remove execution risk as the business tries to deliver global energy innovation and expansion.

Continued expenditure outside the core weighs on the broker's view and a Hold rating is maintained. Target is raised to $21.80 from $21.10.

Target price is $21.80 Current Price is $21.42 Difference: $0.38
If FMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.98, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FPR as Overweight (1) -

On a first look, Morgan Stanley notes FleetPartners Group's first half results were ahead across the board, with the new business writing (NBW) trajectory improving and "marginal growth in NBW" reiterated for FY26.

A second half skew now looks more achievable with strong exit momentum, in the broker's view. The April pipeline is the largest in last 12 months and 27% above the first half monthly average.

Overweight and $3.60 target retained.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.9
If FPR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.45, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HMC as Buy (1) -

HMC Capital has implied a strategic shift in its third quarter update, signalling it is concentrating on growing FUM across existing verticals and delivering returns across various co-investments.

Morgans observes the scaled-back operation should deliver around $15m in run rate cost savings and the simplified strategy is the right one. As FUM continues to grow across real estate and private credit, distributions are anticipated to recommence in FY27.

A Buy rating is reiterated and the target lifted to $4.05 from $3.40.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $1.1
If HMC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.39, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IMU as Buy (1) -

Imugene has continued to make steady progress with its Phase 1b Azer-cel trial, Bell Potter reports, most notably in the indication for patients with Diffuse Large B Cell Lymphoma (DLBCL).

The recent type C meeting with the FDA has illuminated the pathway to an initial approval for Azer-cel in this indication with the added advantage of accelerated approval based on overall response rate and durability, with full approval based on progression free survival only.

Approval for this indication is likely to require the resources of a larger partner, Bell Potter suggests.

Bell Potter retains Speculative Buy, cutting its target to 25c from 82c due to dilution from a recent capital raise.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.135
If IMU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 117% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates KLS as Buy (1) -

On first take, UBS highlights Kelsian Group restated FY26 earnings (EBITDA) guidance of $303m-$312m versus its forecast of $304m and consensus estimate of $309m.

The operations are trading in line with expectations the broker states, even though the stock has derated by -18% since 1H26 result.

The trading update is viewed as offering some "comfort" for investors while emphasising the group has well contracted defensive bus revenues with monthly fuel escalation and annual WPI linkages.

Buy. Target $5.50.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.05 Difference: $1.45
If KLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LNW as Buy (1) -

Light & Wonder reported March Q earnings -3% below consensus, representing a poor start to the year, however Bell Potter notes that International shipments, the primary driver for the miss, is typically lumpy quarter on quarter.

Bell Potter believes the decline in GO base install reflects a one-off occurrence that should benefit future quarters.

Notwithstanding the continued disappointment in SciPlay revenue growth, which the broker now forecasts flat year on year for FY26, Bell Potter continues to believe improving game performance will support consensus forecasts across 2026-28.

Buy retained, target falls to $190 from $220.

Target price is $190.00 Current Price is $102.66 Difference: $87.34
If LNW meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $187.29, suggesting upside of 61.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LNW as Buy (1) -

Post the initial update below, Citi downgrades adj earnings (AEBITDA) forecasts by around -4% to -5% for FY26-FY27 due to lower SciPlay earnings and higher corporate costs.

Buy rating retained. Target lowered to $140 from $160.

***

At first glance, Citi points to a 1Q26 earnings miss for Light & Wonder with adj earnings (AEBITDA) coming in -5% below expectations and -4% lower than consensus at 5% y/y growth.

Revenue missed the analyst's forecast by -2% while Gaming was in line. Grover added 660 units and international unit shipment sales fell to 2,176 from 4,001 a year earlier on timing issues.

SciPlay missed with adj earnings (AEBITDA) of -$66m below $75m estimate while corporate costs were higher.

Management offered 2026 earnings growth outlook of mid to high single digit with a better performance expected in 2H2026. A combination of US tariffs, changes to UK iGaming tax rates, strategic investments and legacy costs are flagged to impact earnings by -$70m.

The stock is expected to trade lower.

Buy. Target $160.

Target price is $140.00 Current Price is $102.66 Difference: $37.34
If LNW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $187.29, suggesting upside of 61.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LNW as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie considers the first quarter was the low point for Light & Wonder and interprets 2026 EBITDA guidance as implying 5-9% growth.

Swing factors include outright sales and SciPlay, with the broker cautious about the latter, at 18% of earnings, as revenues have dropped in the last five consecutive quarters.

Macquarie agrees with accelerating the share buyback in the second quarter, which should provide a 5% annualised EPS accretion. Outperform rating retained. Target is reduced to $200 from $205.

Target price is $200.00 Current Price is $102.66 Difference: $97.34
If LNW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 95% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $187.29, suggesting upside of 61.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LNW as Overweight (1) -

Light & Wonder's March Q earnings rose 5.1% year on year, -3.6% below consensus, driven primarily from softer-than-expected revenue growth in Gaming and SciPlay, Morgan Stanley notes.

Gaming saw a modest miss, driven by lower outright sales, partially offset by a better margin outcome. SciPlay continues to be impacted by weakness in Jackpot Party.

FY26 earnings growth, expected at mid-to high-single digits, incorporates macroeconomic uncertainty, tariff cost pressures and UK iGaming duties.

Morgan Stanleyretains an Overweight rating and $190 target.

Target price is $190.00 Current Price is $102.66 Difference: $87.34
If LNW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $187.29, suggesting upside of 61.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LNW as Buy (1) -

Light & Wonder provided a weaker-than-expected first quarter and missed expectations on revenue and earnings.

The main negative, in Morgans' view, was the North American gaming operations installed base, compounded by weak international machine sales and ongoing SciPlay softness.

The broker reduces FY26-FY27 earnings estimates, reflecting a more conservative stance on land-based net leased adds and digital performance. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $168 from $183.

Target price is $168.00 Current Price is $102.66 Difference: $65.34
If LNW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $187.29, suggesting upside of 61.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LNW as Buy (1) -

Light & Wonder delivered March Q net profit around -5% below market expectations. The earnings shortfall was driven largely by weaker outright sales shipments, which can be inherently volatile over a 90-day reporting period, Ord Minnett notes.

Importantly, the broker does not believe this miss reflects a deterioration in underlying fundamentals.

Commentary states the Gaming Operations segment continues to perform exceptionally well and remains the principal engine of long-term value creation for land-based slot manufacturers.

Looking ahead, Ord Minnett expects stable outright sales share and continued growth in Gaming Operations installs to be the key drivers of group earnings, more than offsetting softer performance in other areas such as SciPlay.

Target falls to $213 from $223, Buy retained.

Target price is $213.00 Current Price is $102.66 Difference: $110.34
If LNW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 107% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $187.29, suggesting upside of 61.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LNW as Buy (1) -

Light & Wonder's 1Q26 result fell short of expectations, with adj earnings (AEBITDA) growth of 5% impacted primarily by weaker outright gaming machine sales volumes and softer average selling prices, UBS explains.

While Gaming, SciPlay and iGaming earnings all missed forecasts, the analyst pointed to continued strength in gaming operations revenue, supported by premium content performance and favourable mix benefits.

Management reiterated FY26 guidance for mid-to-high single-digit adj earnings (AEBITDA) growth, although the broker reduced FY26 growth expectations slightly to 7% from 8%.

Underlying performance remains stronger than headline numbers suggest, commentary posits, with several temporary factors including legal costs, UK iGaming tax changes and Grover Indiana setup costs weighing on results.

EPS forecasts tweaked lower. Target slips to $210 from $215. No change to Buy rating.

Target price is $210.00 Current Price is $102.66 Difference: $107.34
If LNW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 105% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $187.29, suggesting upside of 61.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MFG as Buy (1) -

Magellan Financial has announced a transfer of management to Vinva Investment Management for its Global Equity funds. Morgans estimates, in terms of financial impact, the move will incur a revenue reduction of around -$29m in year one, partially offset by cost savings of around $7m.

The broker calculates this implies a -16% reduction in pre-tax profit in funds management and a modest -8% decline in group EPS for FY27.

As changes are clearly needed to revive the stalled franchise, Morgans reminds investors the path forward may involve some "short-term pain". Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $11.19 from $11.99.

Target price is $11.19 Current Price is $9.08 Difference: $2.11
If MFG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.49, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MI6 as Buy (1) -

Minerals 260 has awarded a $59m contract for a 400-person accommodation village at Bullabulling. Morgans observes this marks a key step towards development, reinforcing confidence in the scale and quality of the system.

As a result, confidence in the commerciality of the gold resource strengthens and the broker updates its modelling to reflect a larger-scale operation, lifting stage 2 milling capacity to 8mtpa and increasing forecast production to around 228,000 ozpa.

A Buy rating is maintained. Target price rises to $1.40 from $1.20.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $0.75 Difference: $0.655
If MI6 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 88% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.24, suggesting upside of 56.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MQG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie Group delivered net profit of $4.847bn in FY26, 8% ahead of Citi's estimates. In an initial view, the broker notes the result was underpinned by better investment-related income across markets, commodities and MacCap.

Citi assesses FY27 guidance implies low single digit upside to consensus revenue forecasts which should also be matched in earnings as costs were largely in line.

Asset realisations featured strongly, led by the sale of the meters business but also other technology and infrastructure exits. The broker expects the result will be well received and retains a Neutral rating with a $220 target.

Target price is $220.00 Current Price is $241.87 Difference: minus $21.87 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $240.70, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley forecasts 18% profit growth for Macquarie Group in FY26 (result due today), which is broadly in line with consensus. The broker factors in a further 11% growth in FY27.

Divisional outlook commentary, as well as management's view on the impact of the operating environment on revenue 'swing factors', will be important, in the broker's view.

Morgan Stanley is Overweight as it believes favourable operating conditions, better underlying revenue growth, earnings per share upgrades and a higher return on equity will support trading multiples.

Target unchanged at $270.

Target price is $270.00 Current Price is $241.87 Difference: $28.13
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $240.70, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MQG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie Group's FY26 results feature Commodities, MAM and MacCap all beating expectations, comment analysts at UBS. It is their assessment that group diversification and business model are delivering on their potential.

The H2 performance is a record, the broker highlights, also adding Macquarie is hoarding capital to allow it to pursue opportunities.

Equally so, UBS points out that while the guidance remains strong, investor attention may shift to earnings growth for FY27, given the elevated base and questions around the sustainability of these results.

Neutral. Target $235.

Target price is $235.00 Current Price is $241.87 Difference: minus $6.87 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $240.70, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NEU as Buy (1) -

Acadia Pharmaceuticals provided a March Q Daybue sales update, from which Neuren Pharmaceuticals receives royalties and milestones. Daybue sales were up 20% year on year and down -8% quarter on quarter, modestly below Acadia's US analyst consensus.

The 20% growth rate is a welcome uplift from the 11-14% growth in each of the last five quarters, Bell Potter notes. A key driver of the step up has been the launch of the new powder formulation, called Daybue Stix.

Neuren's biggest priority is quickly activating the 20-plus US clinical sites and enrolling the 160 patients for its Phase 3 trial of NNZ-2591 in Phelan McDermid syndrome, Bell Potter suggests. Buy and $22 target retained.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $13.05 Difference: $8.95
If NEU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.87, suggesting upside of 86.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NWH as Buy (1) -

NRW Holdings announced "another" contract, UBS explains, for $200m work packages for the Tonkin Highway Grade Separations, Hale Rd and Welshpool Rd East project by Main Roads in WA.

Construction is expected to start in 4Q26 with a flagged timeline of around 18 months.

The analyst views the update as further evidence of the contractor continuing to renew its order book, which underwrites forward revenue visibility.

The broker estimates order book balance remains strong at around $6.8bn-$6.9bn after accounting for expected 2H26 revenue and the latest contract award, providing more than 1.5 years of revenue coverage based on FY27 forecasts.

The estimates excludes numerous smaller work packages below the company's disclosure threshold, suggesting the order book could remain near current levels by the end of FY26.

With strong market activity, a robust tender pipeline and available operating capacity, UBS anticipates multi-year revenue visibility to remain a key investment theme for the company. Buy. Target unchanged at $7.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.14 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If NWH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.63, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NWS as Buy (1) -

News Corp announced a strong 3Q26 result, according to UBS at first take, with both revenue and earnings (EBITDA) beating expectations and consensus.

The stand-outs noted by the analyst include Dow Jones earnings (EBITDA) with risk and energy the main earnings drivers. Ongoing geopolitical conflicts are attributed as the factor for the resilient growth.

Move was also highlighted with a beat at the top line due to premium listing in an otherwise weak US housing market. NewsMedia remained "soft" and was affected by the launch of California post.

Buy. Target $56.

Target price is $56.00 Current Price is $42.07 Difference: $13.93
If NWS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $50.20, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -

The federal government's new Australian Domestic Gas Reservation Policy expands upon its Dec-2025 position and requires all LNG exporters to supply 20% of total LNG export production volumes to domestic markets from July 2027.

UBS interprets the policy as applying only to uncontracted, spot gas sales and to prospective gas projects. The broker has lowered its forecasts for East coast uncontracted wholesale gas prices over 2028-2030 by -15%-20%, now assuming $12/GJ (real 2028).

The follow-on impact is reduced forecasts and valuations for energy companies under coverage.

UBS has lowered Origin Energy's price target by -2% to $13.80. Buy.

Target price is $13.80 Current Price is $11.65 Difference: $2.15
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.01, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ORI as Buy (1) -

Orica's first half FY26 result was headlined by Group earnings of $512m, up 5% year on year, versus Bell Potter's $505m forecast, and margin expansion of 79bps, versus Bell Potter's 31bps.

Orica is not currently experiencing any immediate material constraints relating to the Middle East conflict and earnings are expected to increase across all segments and regions.

Orica sees positive momentum continuing beyond FY26, with medium term targets unchanged. The majority of benefits from a $100m cost-out program underway is expected to be realised in FY27 and beyond.

Heightened operating risks lead the broker to cut its target to $25 from $28, Buy retained.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $22.50 Difference: $2.5
If ORI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.27, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORI as Buy (1) -

On further inspection post the initial update below, Citi believes the ongoing restructuring and earnings quality/cash is more likely to improve in FY27.

Orica remains Buy rated with a higher target of $25.40 from $25.05.

****

In a quick update, Citi notes Orica announced 1H26 earnings of $512m which came in some circa 3% above consensus and up 5% y/y.

On a qualitative basis, the analyst considers the result as better than the March update, thereby implying a "solid" year end exit rate.

Breaking down the divisional performance, blasting was around 2% better with improvement coming from value added from premium products offsetting lower coal production from Indonesia.

Digital solutions was also a slight beat by around 3% with robust adoption underpinning growth. Specialty minerals was a circa 5% beat.

Citi highlights "significant" below the line items. Buy rated with a $25.05 target.

Target price is $25.40 Current Price is $22.50 Difference: $2.9
If ORI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.27, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORI as Outperform (1) -

Orica delivered first half underlying net profit that was ahead of Macquarie's estimates while FY26 EBIT growth guidance was reiterated. The company remains confident in securing a cost-effective North American ammonium nitrate supply in coming months.

Macquarie notes the stock sold off on concerns around North American AN sourcing and finalising an outcome will be the focus of attention over the next few months.

Gold remains the company's largest end market exposure and there is strong demand across blasting, SMC and digital. Orica is also exploring potential debottlenecking opportunities at both Winnemucca and Yarwun as robust cyanide demand continues.

Target rises to $25.86 from $25.40 and an Outperform rating is maintained.

Target price is $25.86 Current Price is $22.50 Difference: $3.36
If ORI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.27, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORI as Overweight (1) -

Orica reported a better-than-feared first half result, Morgan Stanley reports, with earnings beating consensus by 3%, driven by higher margins, more than offsetting revenue weakness (-4% miss).

The FY26 outlook is unchanged, with "EBIT growth expected across all segments and all regions".

North American margins should normalise as US ammonium nitrate supply diversifies, Morgan Stanley suggests, Middle East impacts remain manageable, and faster-growing Digital and Specialty Chemicals continue to lift earnings quality and resilience.

The broker's Overweight rating reflects robust near-term demand in mining end-markets, while longer-term Morgan Stanley sees upside from Orica's dominant market position, continued penetration of value-added products, and growth optionality.

Target rises to $28 from $27.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $22.50 Difference: $5.5
If ORI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.27, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ORI as Buy (1) -

First half results from Orica beat expectations across all business units, with Morgans noting cash flow was much stronger than previously feared and the balance sheet is in good shape.

Consequently, there has been a step up in the dividend. Underlying EBIT and net profit increased 5% and 8%, respectively.

The outlook is positive and further growth is targeted for FY26. Given leverage to attractive industry fundamentals and a market leading position, the broker re-iterates a Buy rating and raises its target to $26.60 from $25.30.

Target price is $26.60 Current Price is $22.50 Difference: $4.1
If ORI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.27, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORI as Buy (1) -

Orica delivered a solid first-half result, Ord Minnett suggests, with earnings coming in around 3% ahead of market expectations.

Importantly, the earnings beat was high quality, underpinned by stronger operating cash flow and constructive outlook commentary.

The broker was encouraged by how management addressed key investor concerns, particularly around the transition away from the CF Industries ammonium nitrate contract in the US and recent plant disruptions in Australia, while also highlighting several attractive growth opportunities.

The acquisition of Danafloat further strengthens Orica's portfolio, Ord Minnett notes, expanding the company's exposure to zinc and copper processing chemistry.

Target rises to $26 from $25. Buy retained.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $22.50 Difference: $3.5
If ORI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.27, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORI as Buy (1) -

On further inspection from the initial take below, UBS believes the 1H26 result moderated investor concerns around the impact of the Middle East war on Orica. EPS forecasts are tweaked higher.

Buy with an unchanged target of $27.

***

UBS observes, at first glance, Orica announced 1H26 earnings (EBIT) 3% ahead of consensus, with growth across all operating segments supporting reiterated FY26 guidance for earnings (EBIT) growth across all regions and divisions.

Blasting Solutions was flat as stronger demand for premium products and blasting technologies offset weaker Indonesian coal production quotas.

Digital Solutions and Mining Chemicals delivered double-digit earnings (EBIT) growth supported by elevated exploration activity and robust gold and copper markets.

Management highlighted progress securing diversified long-term ammonium nitrate supply in North America following the CF Industries offtake termination, with tight global AN markets expected to support future pricing.

UBS described the result as solid given the uncertain operating backdrop, noting no immediate material impacts from Middle East conflict disruption and leverage remaining within the target range.

Buy. Target $27.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $22.50 Difference: $4.5
If ORI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.27, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QBE as Buy (1) -

At first take, Citi notes QBE Insurance's 1Q26 update "tilted" positive as anticipated and previewed recently.

The insurer reiterated it is on pace for guided FY26 core operating ratio of around 92.5% and mid-single digit gross written premium growth.

As expected, 1Q26 gross written premium was ahead of guidance and is attributed to growth in international portfolios including reinsurance and US crop.

CAT claims for the four months to April are circa -US$300m and marginally higher than expected because of circa -US$460m of Middle East losses.

Buy. Target $23.80.

Target price is $23.80 Current Price is $22.65 Difference: $1.15
If QBE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.90, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REA as Buy (1) -

Having returned from a call with management at REA Group, Citi analysts took home several positives, including the notion that costs are quite flexible and management can lower them under tough conditions (as in: now).

In light of rate hikes and upcoming policy changes, the analysts are not surprised management is cautious about the immediate outlook.

Management mentioning conversational search opening up cross-sell opportunities to financial services is viewed as "interesting" and could be positive from a monetisation perspective, the analysts conclude.

Earlier response from today:

Post a first glance, Citi observes REA Group announced 3Q26 earnings (EBITDA) of $220m, up 11% or 16% excluding M&A, which was a -3% miss on the analyst's forecast due to revenue-recognition impact in the core residential business.

The Indian performance continued to be weak.

Buy-yield growth was in line at 14% growth but down from 15% in 2Q26 from lower geographic mix benefit. April listings rose 19% y/y, which is attributed to easier comps but infers the group is on track for a -1% y/y decline in listings against guidance of -1% to -3% decline.

Opex guidance was lowered, another positive. On the negatives, Citi points to lower Australian residential revenue than anticipated, coming in at 12% growth versus forecast of 14%. Housing also remains an underperformer, revenue fell -3% y/y.

The broker sees scope for the share price to underperform initially but much of the 3Q26 misses reflect timing issues. Consensus earnings forecasts are not expected to change.

Buy rating. Target $199.

Target price is $199.00 Current Price is $174.48 Difference: $24.52
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $213.43, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates REA as Buy (1) -

A timing issue and impact from -2% deferral in Resi have kept REA Group's Q3 performance below UBS's estimates, but these headwinds should unwind into 4Q, the broker adds.

In an initial response, the broker highlights current trading suggests April volumes are growing by 19% yoy which is seen as very strong relative to expectations for 4Q (3% yoy), also because March growth of 7% yoy already had some pull forward from the Easter long weekend.

UBS thinks the incremental cost benefit flagged by management should be viewed positively. Buy. Target $209.

Target price is $209.00 Current Price is $174.48 Difference: $34.52
If REA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $213.43, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RIO as Hold (3) -

Morgans assesses underlying mine performance held up well across diversified miners during the cyclone and weather disrupted March quarter yet cost pressures are starting to have an impact after the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, affecting diesel, caustic and freight.

Rio Tinto remains in the high tier of global mining exposures, the broker adds, now trading at a slight premium to pure-play copper miners and reflecting a preference for the relative safety of diversified miners over the growth leverage in copper.

Morgans warns this preference is not sustainable in the long-term. Target is raised to $160 from $156 and the Hold rating is unchanged.

Target price is $160.00 Current Price is $180.24 Difference: minus $20.24 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $168.67, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates S32 as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans assesses underlying mine performance held up well across diversified miners during the cyclone and weather disrupted March quarter yet cost pressures are starting to have an impact after the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, affecting diesel, caustic and freight.

South32 remains the broker's preferred diversified miner at current prices, citing Sierra Gorda copper distributions, Taylor mine life extensions, and aluminium prices at four-year highs.

Accumulate retained. Target edges down to $5.00 from $5.10.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.19 Difference: $0.81
If S32 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SCG as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes Scentre Group's restructure of its interest rate hedges is expected to defer some of the earnings benefits from its $1.8bn subordinated note refinancing from FY26 into later years, smoothing the company's growth profile over time.

The broker estimates the refinancing remains more than 5% EPS accretive through lower debt funding costs, although the hedge changes are expected to reduce FY26 EPS growth by around -1.7%, with benefits shifting into FY27 and beyond.

Forecast FY26 EPS growth has been lowered to 5.8% from 6.7%, while FY27-FY29 earnings forecasts have been upgraded.

Despite the timing shift, the broker expects average EPS growth across FY26-FY29 to remain broadly unchanged, arguing the market is likely to respond positively to a more stable and consistent earnings trajectory.

Neutral. Target $3.85 up from $3.80.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0.05
If SCG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.96, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SDF as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Business Pack and Commercial Motor products showed strength in April although softer trends persist across Personal Motor and Strata segments for Steadfast Group.

The weakest segment was Strata during April, down -12.5% and the lowest print since the broker began collecting this data in September 2024.

The broker estimates a portfolio with the company's product mix should achieve pricing increases of 5% in April versus 2.2% in the March quarter.

Despite the various challenges, the high cash conversion and material valuation discount means Macquarie retains an Outperform rating. Target is $4.80.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.10 Difference: $0.7
If SDF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.59, suggesting upside of 37.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SIQ as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

New vehicle order growth has accelerated for the first time since the introduction of the EV Discount Policy, Bell Potter notes. Smartgroup Corp reaffirmed mid-40s earnings margin guidance, delivering March Q settlements which grew 7% year on year and orders 22%.

While the revenue run-rate was unchanged, backlogs are re-emerging to support future periods. Bell Potter sees good potential as delivery times improve further.

Smartgroup has performed well, Bell Potter suggests, lifting install base growth, with modest penetration. Renewed vehicle orders and pipeline revenue turn the broker positive, leading to an upgrade to Buy from Hold. Target rises to $11.50 from $9.30.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $10.19 Difference: $1.31
If SIQ meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.24, suggesting downside of -3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates STO as Buy (1) -

The federal government's new Australian Domestic Gas Reservation Policy expands upon its Dec-2025 position and requires all LNG exporters to supply 20% of total LNG export production volumes to domestic markets from July 2027.

UBS interprets the policy as applying only to uncontracted, spot gas sales and to prospective gas projects. The broker has lowered its forecasts for East coast uncontracted wholesale gas prices over 2028-2030 by -15%-20%, now assuming $12/GJ (real 2028).

The follow-on impact is reduced forecasts and valuations for energy companies under coverage.

The impact on Santos is a -2% decline in price target, to $8.60 on rather minor-looking adjustments to forecasts. Buy.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $7.63 Difference: $0.97
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.13, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes the inflationary consumer environment makes the like-for-like trajectory of sales for Super Retail's brands volatile, although there is strong free cash flow and longer term structural growth available.

The sales performance in April provided some improvement from a trough in March but remained below February levels, the broker adds.

Management has noted a shift in consumer expenditure to "needs" from "wants", which has resulted in increased demand for maintenance categories such as brake pads, windscreen wipers and vehicle paint. Outperform. Target falls to $15.50 from $17.85.

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $11.32 Difference: $4.18
If SUL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.84, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SUL as Hold (3) -

Super Retail provided a "soft" trading update, with all four brands noting a deceleration in like-for-like sales through March and April along with margin compression.

Morgans points out weak consumer sentiment and inflationary pressures, along with an intense promotional environment, weighed on the business over the key Easter period.

The next catalyst is the investor briefing on June 11 while the broker flags risks such as a further downturn in consumer expenditure and cost pressures in the supply chain. Hold rating. Target is reduced to $11.51 from $12.90.

Target price is $11.51 Current Price is $11.32 Difference: $0.19
If SUL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.84, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TAH as Buy (1) -

Austrac announced it has informed Tabcorp Holdings of "a number of serious concerns with Tabcorp's ability to effectively identify, mitigate and manage money laundering/terrorism financing risks", UBS highlights.

The process is noted as uncertain with the stock falling by -23% or circa -$600m in market capitalisation.

Based on the historical precedent of fines, the analyst views the extent of the reaction as excessive. The announcement is nevertheless disappointing and will be an overhang on the stock with the process of evidence collecting just starting.

Buy rated with a $1.20 target.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.88 Difference: $0.32
If TAH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.12, suggesting upside of 47.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TLX as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter reports Telix Pharmaceuticals' key competitor Lantheus reported 1Q26 revenues overnight with revenues from Pylarify at US$241m vs $240m in 4Q25, virtually flat sequential quarter growth and negative -6.4% vs pcp.

In contrast, the broker points out, Telix's 1Q26 revenues in PSMA imaging (US$186m) increased by 16% vs 4Q25 and 23% vs pcp.

This leads to the conclusion the ASX-listed company continues to take market share in the US, largely by virtue of its reimbursement advantage versus Pylarify.

Bell Potter argues this competitive advantage is likely to continue until at least the commencement of 4Q26 when Lantheus will convert its client base to the TruVu product (TruVu is also expected to attract a refresh on the pass through pricing – levelling the playing field with its competitors).

Buy rating retained for Telix alongside a price target of $19.00.

Commentary states the major catalyst for Telix remains the FDA decision on approval on Pixclara for glioma imaging. PDUFA date is 11 September 2026.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $15.09 Difference: $3.91
If TLX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.40, suggesting upside of 72.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TNE as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Technology One announced a new contract with James Cook University last month which, in Bell Potter's view, is significant from a product perspective, but perhaps less so from a financial perspective given the announcement was only released on the company's website.

On the back of this contract win and clear demonstration of "the power of Plus" (agentic AI), Bell Potter has modestly increased annual recurring revenue forecasts in each period.

The broker has rolled forward its PE ratio and enterprise valuations by a year. The net result is an increase in target price to $31.75 from $31.00 which is greater than a 15% premium to the share price, so Bell Potter upgrades to Buy from Hold.

Target price is $31.75 Current Price is $27.44 Difference: $4.31
If TNE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.95, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TNE as Neutral (3) -

TechnologyOne reiterated FY26 guidance for 18%-20% profit before tax growth which aligns with the recent February update.

UBS believes the company can achieve guidance ahead of the 1H26 result which is scheduled for May 19, with the analyst focusing on possible upside from Plus Ai revenues and margins.

Neutral. Target $32.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $27.44 Difference: $4.56
If TNE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.95, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

The federal government's new Australian Domestic Gas Reservation Policy expands upon its Dec-2025 position and requires all LNG exporters to supply 20% of total LNG export production volumes to domestic markets from July 2027.

UBS interprets the policy as applying only to uncontracted, spot gas sales and to prospective gas projects. The broker has lowered its forecasts for East coast uncontracted wholesale gas prices over 2028-2030 by -15%-20%, now assuming $12/GJ (real 2028).

The follow-on impact is reduced forecasts and valuations for energy companies under coverage.

UBS' price target for Woodside Energy has lost -1% to $30.10. Neutral.

Target price is $30.10 Current Price is $30.49 Difference: minus $0.39 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.42, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ZIP as Buy (1) -

Zip Co's April trading update came in above UBS' expectations with US customers remaining both active and resilient.

Management reiterated FY26 cash earnings (EBITDA) guidance of over $260m.

Buy rated. Target $3.10.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.64 Difference: $0.46
If ZIP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting upside of 30.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources