Australian Broker Call

Citi rates A2M as Neutral (3) -

In a first take, Citi notes a2 Milk Co has confirmed FY26 earnings are in line with expectations, although the analyst sees risks to FY27 earnings.

The company's update showed FY26 will be in line to slightly above the April 13 downgrade. The update also confirmed the analyst's concern that a large number of customers have started to swap to competitor brands due to supply chain disruptions.

Citi sees downside risks to FY27 consensus earnings forecasts.

Citi notes CBEC (Cross-Border E-Commerce) price checks show another positive datapoint inferring an improvement in stock availability.

There seem to be higher promotions for Platinum trial tins from a2 Milk Co's flagship store as well as other resellers, which suggests to the analyst management is investing in new customer acquisition post the recent supply issues.

Availability in Genesis stock also seems to have improved, albeit delivery times are still lengthy, Citi states.

Neutral rated. Target $6.70.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $7.71 Difference: minus $1.01 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.12, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Media reports over last weekend referred to NSW State Labor Conference support for a proposal to place a moratorium on new machine licences, create a new tax on clubs and commit to halving the number of machines able to be traded between venues in 10 years.

Citi points out this proposal, which would still require legislation, is more "benign" than the initial proposal which called for the removal of half of Sydney's circa 90k poker machines.

Even if the proposal is enacted, the analyst doesn't see any material impact on Aristocrat Leisure or Light & Wonder's ((LNW)) earnings outlook.

NSW is already a replacement market and the proposal will only target machines being traded between venues in NSW. Also, NSW is a relatively small generator of group earnings, the broker explains.

Citi remains Buy rated on Aristocrat Leisure with a $61 target price.

Target price is $61.00 Current Price is $61.61 Difference: minus $0.61 (current price is over target).
If ALL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $64.61, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMP as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

AMP's first half margins could be strong yet Macquarie envisages, if FY26 guidance is unchanged, there may be a lower exit rate for key metrics heading into FY27.

The broker understands net flows across the sector have slowed since the federal budget which could soften seasonal peak flows in the second quarter. Controllable costs should be lower in the first half compared with the second, as salaries and SAAS indexation annualises.

The broker also expects AMP could take a small impairment on the loan portfolio in the bank. With slower growth implied in the outer years and the stock trading at a 23% premium to NTA, Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target is lowered to $1.82 from $1.94.

Target price is $1.82 Current Price is $1.67 Difference: $0.155
If AMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.82, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ANN as Neutral (3) -

UBS previews Ansell's FY26 result and flags the company has done well on pricing including being able to offset US tariffs, and more recent rises in freight and input costs.

The new CEO is anticipated to offer a positive outlook for the company's medium-term growth prospects including a wide EPS guidance range for FY27, the analyst states.

Recently announced price rises to customers were to counter the rise in nitrile and other input costs as well as the higher freight costs.

Ongoing strength in the US economy is expected to support Ansell, the broker points out. The latest UBS evidence lab US hospital C-suite business survey inferred hospitals are seeking to lift PPE holdings.

The stock is Neutral rated with a lower target of $34.25 from $35.60.

Target price is $34.25 Current Price is $32.55 Difference: $1.7
If ANN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.85, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ARB as Buy (1) -

New vehicle sales in Australia increased 7% in June to a record monthly high, supported by continued growth in EV sales as a percentage of the mix.

Ord Minnett notes sales data relevant to ARB Corp remain weak as the company awaits improved supply from key manufacturers.

Growth in sales during the month was entirely driven by the SUV segment with all other segments declining.

Ord Minnett expects earnings growth for ARB should return in FY27 amid new and refurbished stores, offshore expansion and strategic partnerships. Buy rating. Target is $27.80.

Target price is $27.80 Current Price is $18.15 Difference: $9.65
If ARB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.12, suggesting upside of 33.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

ASX announced June quarter trading showing a weakening in volumes from March's record volumes, albeit the levels remain robust, Citi notes.

Over 2H26, cash equities and futures trading volumes achieved fresh record highs, cash volumes lifted 22% y/y and daily number of ASX24 contracts rose around 16% y/y.

Notably, the core ASX business continues to do well, the broker stresses. Corporate markets activity remained subdued. IPO volumes are down around -70% y/y.

The stock remains Neutral rated with a slightly higher target of $56.50, up 30c. Citi sees tail risks as having moderated since the ASIC settlement and increased certainty around the Accelerate program. The new CEO starts on 1 Sep.

Target price is $56.50 Current Price is $52.59 Difference: $3.91
If ASX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $53.98, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie observes equity trading volumes are "showing signs of life" while capital markets activity experienced a recovery in the fourth quarter of FY26 as secondary capital raisings increased 22%.

ASX currently trades at a 19.9x the 12-month forward PE which is around -16.4% below the three-year average, the broker calculates, which in turn translates to a 16% premium to the ASX100.

FY26 and FY27 earnings estimates are raised 1.8% to reflect adjustments to trading volumes and operating expenditure expectations.

The target is lowered to $51 from $54, reflecting a reduced payout ratio from FY28 given a forecast shortfall in excess capital. Neutral retained.

Target price is $51.00 Current Price is $52.59 Difference: minus $1.59 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $53.98, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASX as Buy (1) -

Trading activity over June remained robust with average daily futures up 21% and cash equity turnover up 22% y/y. UBS notes the 2H26 growth sits above consensus expectations for ASX.

Capital raisings came in at $3.5bn which is down from $11bn a year ago and collateral balances declined with average balances down -17% y/y.

The analyst highlights 2H26 EPS forecast is 1.5% above consensus while expecting higher earnings upside into FY27.

UBS's EPS forecast is 6% above consensus on anticipated higher futures volumes, higher annual listing fee growth and equity post trade upside.

The stock is Buy rated with an unchanged $62 target price.

Target price is $62.00 Current Price is $52.59 Difference: $9.41
If ASX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $53.98, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

UBS expects the June quarter reporting period will show most miners finished FY26 at the upper end of production guidance ranges, underpinned by generally favourable operating conditions. Investor focus is likely to centre on realised pricing and costs, the latter given the disruptions in the Middle East.

BHP Group will present its June quarter result on July 16 with Brandon Craig delivering for the first time as CEO. Western Australian iron ore is expected to finish FY26 at the upper half of guidance and copper production ending comfortably within range.

Neutral rating and $60 target retained.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $60.02 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $61.07, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CHC as Buy (1) -

UBS notes the latest transaction volumes in Australian real estate highlight the resilience of the market. Australian CRE transaction volumes in the first half grew 16% to $19bn, per CBRE data, making the highest volumes recorded since 2021.

All sub-sectors experienced higher transaction volumes with retail volumes the highest, industrial next and office third.

The broker points out the share of domestic buyers increased, with offshore buying falling -8% and accounting for just 21% of total volumes, consistent with offshore investors returning to their home markets during periods of global volatility.

UBS considers this strength a positive read for the major Australian real estate fund managers such as Charter Hall. Buy rating and $24.75 target.

Target price is $24.75 Current Price is $22.73 Difference: $2.02
If CHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.72, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of the FY26 result, Macquarie notes the blended OIS/BBSW rate forward curve, weighted for Computershare's geographic mix, is -4 basis points lower now compared to the curve at the first half result and 47 basis points higher for FY27.

The broker points out the margin income guidance from the company is based on the forward curve. Every 25 basis points movement in bond yields for the portfolio mix equates to a 2.5% impact on group EPS.

Other items to watch for will be the probability of no buyback, given implications for franking credits.

At current levels valuation is considered fair and Macquarie will watch equity and debt market volumes before becoming more bullish. Neutral rating. Target is raised to $38 from $36.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $39.26 Difference: minus $1.26 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.44, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CRN as Neutral (3) -

UBS expects the June quarter reporting period will show most miners finished FY26 at the upper end of production guidance ranges, underpinned by generally favourable operating conditions. Investor focus is likely to centre on realised pricing and costs, the latter given the disruptions in the Middle East.

A marked improvement in production and realised pricing is expected for Coronado Global Resources in the quarter with a focus on whether the Curragh turnaround is translating into lower costs and stronger cash generation.

Neutral rating and $0.21 target. The company will report its production results on July 31.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.035
If CRN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.34, suggesting upside of 101.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CYC as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter was pleased with the update from Cyclopharm, highlighting the installation of 26 Technegas generators in the first half in the US. Momentum has shifted significantly in recent months with the majority of the new installations completed in May and June.

The broker increases its estimate to a cumulative 120 devices installed by the end of the year, from 85, and notes there is an additional 50 in contract review with a high probability of conversion.

The company did not disclose earnings in the trading update and does not provide earnings guidance. Target is steady at $1. Buy rating.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.525
If CYC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 111% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DMP as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has reviewed Domino's Pizza Enterprises and incorporates a higher royalty rate on its Australasian operations for the master franchisor, along with weaker sales growth in the European and Asian businesses.

The Australian company's franchise deal with global brand owner Domino's Pizza Inc expires in January 2028 and the broker expects the new deal will be done at a 3% royalty rate, up from a low of 2% currently, which will bring it into line with royalty rates that apply in Europe and Asia.

The company is likely to fund this higher impost, rather than its franchisees, given it is trying to boost weak store economics, Ord Minnett adds. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $21 from $22.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $16.16 Difference: $4.84
If DMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.24, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DXS as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes the latest transaction volumes in Australian real estate highlight the resilience of the market. Australian CRE transaction volumes in the first half grew 16% to $19bn, per CBRE data, making the highest volumes recorded since 2021.

All sub-sectors experienced higher transaction volumes with retail volumes the highest, industrial next and office third.

The broker points out the share of domestic buyers increased, with offshore buying falling -8% and accounting for just 21% of total volumes, consistent with offshore investors returning to their home markets during periods of global volatility.

UBS considers this strength a positive read for the major Australian real estate fund managers such as Dexus. Neutral rating and $6.68 target.

Target price is $6.68 Current Price is $5.49 Difference: $1.19
If DXS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.77, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FLT as Buy (1) -

UBS observes Flight Centre Travel's FCM corporate travel management business has been awarded a contract for travel services for the Independent Parliamentary Expenses Authority.

The contract at $8m is from June 23 to Dec 31 2029 with three extension options and is the prior contract held by Corporate Travel Management ((CTD)).

The analyst highlights Corporate Travel was previously the sole provider for the Australian Federal Government which spent $853m on travel in FY25 which was around 30% of Corporate Travel's Australian total transaction value.

UBS estimates if Flight Centre were to win the Whole of Government contract it would be circa 3% EPS accretive.

Buy rated. Target $14.70.

Target price is $14.70 Current Price is $12.34 Difference: $2.36
If FLT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.32, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

UBS expects the June quarter reporting period will show most miners finished FY26 at the upper end of production guidance ranges, underpinned by generally favourable operating conditions. Investor focus is likely to centre on realised pricing and costs, the latter given the disruptions in the Middle East.

Fortescue's shipment delivery should be strong, the broker asserts, while realised pricing will be the key given the interaction between wider low-grade discounts and recent CMRG negotiations.

Neutral rating and $19.70 target. The company will report its June quarter production on July 23.

Target price is $19.70 Current Price is $18.52 Difference: $1.18
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.17, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GGP as Buy (1) -

June quarter production for Greatland Resources was better than expected at 79koz, some 8% above both Citi's and consensus forecasts.

FY26 production stands at 329koz, 6% above the top end of management's guidance range, while copper production for the quarter of 3.6kt contributed to FY26 copper output of 14.6kt.

Cash at quarter end stood at $1,289m, a rise of $81m on the prior quarter and was achieved, the analyst notes, post-Havieron capex spend and a tax payment.

Buy rated with a $16 target.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $11.79 Difference: $4.21
If GGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.56, suggesting upside of 37.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GMD as Buy (1) -

Genesis Minerals has made a definitive proposal for a merger with Vault Minerals ((VAU)) via a scheme of arrangement, directly competing with the existing scheme implementation deed with Regis Resources ((RRL)), dated 5 May.

The offer, where Vault shareholders receive 0.7629 new Genesis shares plus cash of $0.475 per share held, is a 14.5% premium to the implied Regis offer. The Vault board has unanimously determined this constitutes a superior proposal.

Regis Resources retains a five business-day matching right. Bell Potter considers the proposed scheme, which is not subject to due diligence or financing conditions, was a materially better strategic and financial outcome than the status quo.

Buy rating. Target is lowered to $9.75 from $9.90 on account of the recent completion of the transaction with Magnetic Resources.

Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $6.03 Difference: $3.72
If GMD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.26, suggesting upside of 59.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMD as Buy (1) -

Genesis Minerals announced a binding proposal to acquire Vault Minerals ((VAU)) for a mixture of cash and shares which values Vault at $5.274 per share, a 14.5% premium to Regis Resources ((RRL)) all-scrip offer, Citi details.

The offer also represents a 15.7% premium to Vault's closing price on July 3.

Genesis estimates $2bn in post-tax, undiscounted synergies, the analyst points out as well as $1.5bn of operational positives due to the close proximity of the Leonora and Bardoc-Mt Monger assets.

The broker sees the combined group with a market cap of $12.6bn, gold production of 600koz-700koz annually and ore reserves of 9.4Moz. Vault's board sees the offer as a "Superior Proposal" to Regis' offer.

Genesis Minerals is Buy rated with a $10 target.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $6.03 Difference: $3.97
If GMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 66% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.26, suggesting upside of 59.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GMD as Buy (1) -

Genesis Minerals announced a bid to acquire 100% of Vault Minerals ((VAU)) for a cash, share offer, valuing the shares at $5.274 each.

The bid is considered as "superior", 14% premium to the current Regis Resources ((RRL)) bid and has triggered a five day matching period for Regis to offer a matching or superior offer.

The analyst notes synergies of around $1.5bn from consolidation of the Laverton/Leonora districts.

Genesis has highlighted a proforma production of 600koz-700koz p.a. versus the broker's estimated production of around 800koz p.a.

UBS continues to expect more consolidation in the gold sector due to the robust cash rich balance sheets of producers looking for growth opportunities.

Genesis Minerals is Buy rated with a $10.05 target price.

Target price is $10.05 Current Price is $6.03 Difference: $4.02
If GMD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.26, suggesting upside of 59.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Ahead of the August results from Goodman Group, Citi expects an upgrade to the existing EPS growth guidance of 9%.

The company is in exclusive negotiations with key tenants across several global assets and, while the timing of lease announcements is uncertain, these are expected to occur before December.

Without a lease announcement at or before the August results, Citi anticipates a more conservative start to FY27 guidance, with upgrades to follow as lease announcements are made.

The company is heavily invested in the data centre market with a development pipeline of around $18bn, 73% of which is dedicated to data centres.

Beyond this, the foundation logistics portfolio provides stable, organic growth. Buy rating and a $40 target.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $30.89 Difference: $9.11
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.21, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GMG as Buy (1) -

UBS notes the latest transaction volumes in Australian real estate highlight the resilience of the market. Australian CRE transaction volumes in the first half grew 16% to $19bn, per CBRE data, making the highest volumes recorded since 2021.

All sub-sectors experienced higher transaction volumes with retail volumes the highest, industrial next and office third.

The broker points out the share of domestic buyers increased, with offshore buying falling -8% and accounting for just 21% of total volumes, consistent with offshore investors returning to their home markets during periods of global volatility.

UBS considers this strength a positive read for the major Australian real estate fund managers such as Goodman Group. Buy rating and $33.92 target.

Target price is $33.92 Current Price is $30.89 Difference: $3.03
If GMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.21, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LNW as Buy (1) -

Media reports over last weekend referred to NSW State Labor Conference support for a proposal to place a moratorium on new machine licenses, create a new tax on clubs and commit to halving the number of machines able to be traded between venues in 10 years.

Citi points out this proposal which would still require legislation is more "benign" than the initial proposal which called for the removal of half of Sydney's circa 90k poker machines.

Even if the proposal is enacted, the analyst doesn't see any material impact on Aristocrat Leisure or Light & Wonder's ((LNW)) earnings outlook.

NSW is already a replacement market and the proposal will only target machines being traded between venues in NSW. Also NSW is a relatively small generator of group earnings, the broker explains.

The target for Light & Wonder is $149. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $149.00 Current Price is $108.75 Difference: $40.25
If LNW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $188.00, suggesting upside of 72.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LYC as Outperform (1) -

Today, Lynas Rare Earths has announced a long-term partnership with JS Link to support development of a 3ktpa NdFeB permanent magnet facility in Kuantan, Malaysia, including a $50m equity investment to fund construction.

Under the agreement, Lynas will provide rare earth feedstock to JS Link's operations in Malaysia and Yesan, South Korea.

In a quick response, Macquarie analysts state it is not clear if the magnet facility includes a metallisation plant, which is a key step between NdPr oxide supply and magnet manufacturing.

Commentary concludes the $50m investment appears to provide exposure to a strategically important downstream asset at a relatively modest capital commitment.

Macquarie retains its view there remains 'value' in Lynas shares, underpinned by the company's strategic position as the largest ex-China producer of separated rare earths and growing downstream integration opportunities.

Outperform. Target $22.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $18.06 Difference: $3.94
If LYC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.07, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MGR as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes the latest transaction volumes in Australian real estate highlight the resilience of the market. Australian CRE transaction volumes in the first half grew 16% to $19bn, per CBRE data, making the highest volumes recorded since 2021.

All sub-sectors experienced higher transaction volumes with retail volumes the highest, industrial next and office third.

The broker points out the share of domestic buyers increased, with offshore buying falling -8% and accounting for just 21% of total volumes, consistent with offshore investors returning to their home markets during periods of global volatility.

UBS considers this strength a positive read for the major Australian real estate fund managers such as Mirvac Group. No change in Neutral rating and $1.97 target price.

Target price is $1.97 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.275
If MGR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.01, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MIN as Buy (1) -

UBS expects the June quarter reporting period will show most miners finished FY26 at the upper end of production guidance ranges, underpinned by generally favourable operating conditions. Investor focus is likely to centre on realised pricing and costs, the latter given the disruptions in the Middle East.

Mineral Resources continues to outperform at Onslow although weather-related disruptions are expected to weigh on shipments, UBS observes. Lithium should also be in focus and volumes finish at the top end of guidance.

Buy rating and $79 target. The company will report its June quarter results on July 29.

Target price is $79.00 Current Price is $64.54 Difference: $14.46
If MIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $78.40, suggesting upside of 28.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PXA as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett asserts the NSW state regulator's proposal to cut fees on four of the highest high-volume transactions offered by Pexa Group will drag "heavily" on the profitability of the online property registry. EPS estimates are downgraded accordingly.

The draft report from the Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal, if implemented in full, would slash revenue from the company's regulated exchange business by -20%, although the broker suspects a "modestly better" final outcome could occur.

Pexa will also argue the impact of recent tax changes that are cutting transaction volume forecasts. Buy rating and target price is $11.80.

Target price is $11.80 Current Price is $8.73 Difference: $3.07
If PXA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.49, suggesting upside of 47.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates QAN as Initiation of coverage with Accumulate (2) -

Morgans has initiated coverage of Qantas Airways with an Accumulate rating and $11.50 target price. 

The analyst believes the balance sheet has been strengthened sufficiently to absorb the current rise in fuel prices and softer consumer demand boosted by diligent cost management.

Fleet renewal is expected to generate lower costs and higher yields via a strategy of fuel saving, more premium seating and long-haul route opportunities for the domestic market.

Internationally, Project Sunrise for direct flights to London and New York from Sydney is generating a premium unique product for Qantas.

Loyalty has 18.3m members and is one of Australia's largest and most valuable consumer ecosystems, the broker emphasises. The division is expected is on track to deliver its first FY30 earnings (EBIT) target of $800m-$1bn.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $10.57 Difference: $0.93
If QAN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.03, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QBE as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie expects QBE Insurance will retain FY26 guidance at the first half result, noting the stock is trading at around 12.3x the 12-month forward PE, which is around 17.8% above the three-year average.

GWP growth guidance is expected to be retained at the "mid single-digits". Macquarie raises FY26 EPS estimates by 4.7% and lowers FY27 by -0.7%.

Target is reduced to $23.90 from $24.60 and, given current multiples as the peak catastrophe season nears, the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

Target price is $23.90 Current Price is $24.99 Difference: minus $1.09 (current price is over target).
If QBE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $24.66, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

UBS points out Rio Tinto has not yet announced any asset divestments as announced at the December 2025 capital markets day, albeit media reports infer the sale of the borates business is going well, while the sale of the titanium oxide business (RTIT) has been paused.

Borates is expected to achieve up to US$2bn with a swathe of interested parties. RTIT has been placed on hold due to geopolitical tensions with the most possible buyers being Chinese companies.

Management is also noted for being in discussions with Vitol to form a joint venture partnership for freight and logistics.

The analyst estimates Rio spends US$3bn p.a. on freight in the Pilbara and IOC. The partnerships with Vitol could be "meaningful", UBS states.

Rio announces 2Q production on July 15 and 1H2026 results on July 29.

Commentary posits Rio Tinto's Pilbara volumes should recover after cyclone disruptions in the first quarter, with management targeting recovery of around half of the -8mt lost during the quarter.

UBS notes investors are placing emphasis on the exposure to copper and aluminium and Simandou execution will be key. Neutral rated. Target $177.

Target price is $177.00 Current Price is $171.17 Difference: $5.83
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $179.75, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RRL as Neutral (3) -

June quarter gold production for Regis Resources was robust, rising 12% on the prior quarter to 101.5koz, some 9% above Citi's and consensus forecasts. FY26 production came in at 379koz, at the upper end of management's guidance range.

Management confirmed FY26 guidance around AISC, growth in capex and exploration, albeit the analyst points out, AISC are likely to be at the upper end of guidance range largely due to higher than usual diesel costs.

Closing cash and bullion for the end of the quarter of $1.21bn was better than consensus, and a rise of $692m y/y post dividend payments and tax.

Neutral rated with an $8.10 target price.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $6.70 Difference: $1.4
If RRL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.23, suggesting upside of 22.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SDR as Buy (1) -

Citi has lowered its revenue projections for SiteMinder (-2% to -6%), referencing the stronger AUD, lower transaction revenue due to softer travel activity given the Middle East conflict and slower ramp for C-plus.

Lower cost growth results in minimal EBITDA downgrades (-1% to -2%) only. As Citi finds the current valuation too low, the stock remains Buy-rated.

In reflection of lower peer multiples and lower long-term growth, the price target has been pulled back by -8% to $6.05.

Target price is $6.05 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $2.15
If SDR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.40, suggesting upside of 61.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGP as Neutral (3) -

After taking a deep dive into the Stockland masterplan, UBS forecasts FY27 settlements of 7.8k, down -2% versus the prior forecast of down -3%, which is down -5% y/y.

The forecast relies on around 8k settlements p.a. as the new baseline and, with the step up in funds used, Stockland will need to swap margin for volume to maintain revenue productivity, the analyst states.

Interest rate rises and higher dwelling prices are likely to weigh on volumes with the broker pointing to settlement downside of around 7k–7.5k.

From FY28, rate cuts and improving sentiment are expected to lift settlements by a forecast 9% in FY28. Budget changes should also see a "structural" rise in volumes in FY29/FY30 as investors move to new build projects.

Target price is lowered -13% to $4.32 from $4.95. Neutral.

Target price is $4.32 Current Price is $4.00 Difference: $0.32
If SGP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.83, suggesting upside of 24.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SNT as Speculative Buy (1) -

Syntara has reported initial results in the Phase 2 trial for drug candidate SNT-4728 in isolated REM sleep behaviour disorder (iRBD).

Bell Potter notes a statistically significant reduction in neuroinflammation from baseline was evident and there were no statistically significant changes in neuroinflammation evident in other predefined regions of primary interest.

For what is a short duration trial, the broker assesses it to be "encouraging". The trial is ongoing until subjects complete six months of follow-up. Further data will be released in the second half of 2026. Speculative Buy rating and six cents target unchanged.

Target price is $0.06 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.036
If SNT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 150% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Buy (1) -

Citi points out CBEC (Cross-Border E-Commerce) pricing for Bin 407 rose slightly versus the May check, while Bin 389 has remained flat.

The range of prices has narrowed since a year ago, the analyst notes.

This might signal more consistent pricing and some improvement in managing the parallel market, the broker reckons.

Buy rated. Target $5.50.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.48 Difference: $1.02
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.10, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WHC as Neutral (3) -

UBS expects the June quarter reporting period will show most miners finished FY26 at the upper end of production guidance ranges, underpinned by generally favourable operating conditions. Investor focus is likely to centre on realised pricing and costs, the latter given the disruptions in the Middle East.

The broker notes favourable operating conditions exist across NSW while the performance of Whitehaven Coal should have improved in Queensland, supporting production. Strong coal prices are expected to provide a meaningful pricing tailwind.

The company will report its production results on July 28. Neutral rating and $8.70 target.

Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $7.55 Difference: $1.15
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.24, suggesting upside of 30.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources