Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Aristocrat Leisure's 1H26 result was broadly in line with Bell Potter's forecast, with adjusted earnings (EBIT) slightly ahead of consensus, supported by lower-than-expected corporate costs.

Gaming delivered solid constant currency growth and install base expansion, the analysts explain, while Product Madness and Interactive underperformed. Fee per day softened but is expected to improve as higher-performing games enter the portfolio.

Commentary notes cash flow remained strong, and the company increased its buyback to $2.5bn.

Management reiterated most outlook comments including profit (NPATA) growth over FY26 on a constant currency basis.

Bell Potter retains a Buy rating with an unchanged $61.00 target.

Target price is $61.00 Current Price is $51.94 Difference: $9.06
If ALL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $63.33, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Following an initial summary of Aristocrat Leisure's interim results (see below), Citi lowers its target by -$4.00 to $61.00 and retains a Buy rating.

In a flash update, Citi notes Aristocrat Leisure announced 1H26 group earnings (EBITA) which was 1% better than consensus and 3% above its own forecast.

The result was supported by a $45m litigation expense recovery, resulting in the operating earnings (EBITA) missing consensus by around -3%, though in line with the broker's forecast.

Gaming missed by -1%, Product Madness by -7% and Interactive by -4% against consensus expectations. Management flagged net adds to be at the top end of guidance, 4000-5000 units for FY26.

A 50c dividend per share was above consensus at 47.5c and an extension of the $1bn share buy back was announced. The stock is expected to trade down. (Shares actually rallied strongly).

Target price is $61.00 Current Price is $51.94 Difference: $9.06
If ALL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $63.33, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie now forecasts $1.553bn in FY26 net profit for Aristocrat Leisure after a first half result that showed North American gaming has momentum and Product Madness outperformance can continue.

The broker expects 10%-15% earnings growth over the medium term with benefits from ongoing buybacks, and considers the stock undervalued.

The stock trades at 19x 12-month forward PE in line with the ASX300 industrials, despite attractive growth and a robust balance sheet. Target is reduced to $60 from $63. Outperform.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $51.94 Difference: $8.06
If ALL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $63.33, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALL as Overweight (1) -

Post Aristocrat Leisure's 1H26 result, Morgan Stanley upgrades the target to $63.90 from $59.80 noting the gaming company has picked up market share across its key segments while reflecting better cost management.

Gaming momentum is anticipated to rise into 2H26, with gaming ops around an estimate 3k in 2H26 versus 2k in 1H26. Outright sales are also expected to improve with fee per day also improving, the analyst states. Earnings forecasts for gaming ops rise 1.5%.

Higher user acquisition spend resulted in a miss on Product Madness. Social casino revenue growth came in at 5% versus market growth falling by -11%. The shift through internal marketing channels from third parties is now at around 24% offsetting the margin decline.

A cost out of $100m is flagged for FY27 with AI adoption which is well progressed expected to underwrite efficiencies.

EPS forecasts are raised by an average of 1.8% for FY26-FY28. Overweight retained. Industry view: In-Line

Target price is $63.90 Current Price is $51.94 Difference: $11.96
If ALL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $63.33, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Aristocrat Leisure announced 1H26 which were broadly in line with consensus and better than Morgans expected.

Management pointed out a "softer" than usual 1H skew. Gaming was noted as the standout performer while Product Madness and Interactive performed below forecasts.

Gaming saw Class III premium net adds of around 2k, a beat with management guiding to the top end of the 4k-5k range for FY26. Social casino (Product Madness) revenue slipped -11% as expected.

Massachusetts and Michigan are going live in July limiting the contribution to Interactive to one quarter for FY26. The share buyback was extended by $1bn taking total authorisation to $2.5bn with around $1.3bn done to date.

Target price is lifted to $67 from $63 with Buy rating retained. EPS forecasts are raised by 3%-4% across FY26-FY27.

Target price is $67.00 Current Price is $51.94 Difference: $15.06
If ALL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $63.33, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Aristocrat Leisure reported net profit in the first half of $794m, largely in line with expectations. The main positive Ord Minnett takes from the result was continued strength in gaming, which remains the company's higher-multiple earnings stream.

The main issue following the result is whether meaningful margin expansion is achievable, the broker adds, as management has signalled an intention to remove $100m in costs in FY27 and it remains unclear how much is incremental versus already embedded in operating leverage.

Target is reduced to $61 from $65 and a Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $61.00 Current Price is $51.94 Difference: $9.06
If ALL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $63.33, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALL as Buy (1) -

UBS views Aristocrat Leisure's 1H26 result as a return to solid earnings growth, with earnings (EPS) up 19% in constant currency, helping rebuild investor confidence.

The result was broadly in line with the broker's forecasts, with lower-than-expected corporate costs offsetting mixed segment performance.

Gaming operations showed solid momentum, in the analysts' view, particularly in install base growth, while Product Madness and Interactive were softer.

Commentary also notes cash flow remained strong and the buyback was increased by $1bn.

Guidance was reaffirmed, with expectations for continued earnings growth, ongoing market share gains and further cost savings into FY27.

Unchanged Buy rating. Target raised to $69.40 from $68.90.

Target price is $69.40 Current Price is $51.94 Difference: $17.46
If ALL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $63.33, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALQ as Buy (1) -

Morgans explains the recent share price weakness for ALS Ltd can be attributed to slowing growth from overseas peers, forex pressure, Middle East exposure and concerns around fuel supplies.

Extrapolating from Imdex's ((IMD)) March quarter update, the broker highlights a historical 95% correlation with ALS' geochemistry sample volumes and Imdex's toll volumes. Morgans believes there is a positive read through for Commodities.

Adjusting for the possible headwinds, the analyst lowers FY27 Life Sciences revenue forecasts by -6% on forex and raises Commodities estimate by 3%, which is earnings neutral.

Target price is raised to $27.20 from $25.30. The company reports FY26 results on May 18. Buy rated.

Target price is $27.20 Current Price is $21.78 Difference: $5.42
If ALQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.76, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BAP as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, Citi suggests a further deterioration in investor sentiment towards Bapcor is likely following an earnings downgrade today (yet again), raising concerns over the credibility of management's turnaround strategy.

FY26 underlying earnings guidance has been reduced to $140m-$150m from $150m-$160m, reflecting weaker trading conditions, cost pressures and currency headwinds.

Specifically, management attribute the downgrade to the impact of the Middle East conflict and higher interest rates, with weaker trading conditions since March 2026, rising fuel, freight and supplier costs in April.

A softer NZD/AUD exchange rate also weighed on translated earnings from the New Zealand business, the broker highlights.

Risks around balance sheet metrics are flagged, with slower-than-expected inventory reduction and potential covenant pressure despite temporary relief from lenders.

Citi remains cautious, noting increased competition and ongoing execution challenges.

Neutral rating and 76c target.

Target price is $0.76 Current Price is $0.52 Difference: $0.245
If BAP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.63, suggesting upside of 50.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BRG as Buy (1) -

Morgans observes updates from offshore peers have broadly positive implications for Breville Group despite the challenging consumer backdrop.

The broker makes minor revisions to earnings estimates to reflect this background and lowers FY26-FY28 EPS estimates by -1%-2%.

Morgans remains encouraged by the company's strong execution throughout FY26 and is comfortable the transition impacts will not persist into FY27 and a strong organic growth trajectory should resume.

Buy rating retained. Target is lowered to $36.75 from $40.65.

Target price is $36.75 Current Price is $29.08 Difference: $7.67
If BRG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.52, suggesting upside of 32.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BRG as Buy (1) -

A read-through for Breville Group, UBS highlights De'Longhi's 1Q26 result, with revenue growth of 6.6% in constant currency. This outcome was ahead of expectations and driven by strong performance in APAC and the Americas, explains the analyst.

The result is seen as supporting a positive outlook for Breville, with robust growth in the global coffee market underpinned by rising consumption and the "barista at home" trend.

UBS highlights a large and expanding addressable market, with innovation expected to drive further growth across key regions.

The broker retains a Buy rating on Breville with an unchanged $36 target.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $29.08 Difference: $6.92
If BRG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.52, suggesting upside of 32.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CBA as Underperform (5) -

CommBank delivered a third quarter trading update that slightly missed expectations amid weaker revenue and a top up in provisioning.

Macquarie has observed a clear deterioration in revenue trends across the sector, although CommBank has marginally outperformed peers.

Underlying margins appear broadly stable, which implies these are tracking by -1-2 basis points below consensus estimates, the broker adds.

In an unusual move for a quarterly, albeit considered prudent, the bank topped up provisions by $200m, increasing CP coverage by three basis points to 1.38%. Macquarie reduces the target to $114 from $117 and maintains an Underperform rating.

Target price is $114.00 Current Price is $153.67 Difference: minus $39.67 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $125.57, suggesting downside of -19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley highlights CommBank's quarterly update reflected "sound" operating trends but the results missed what are viewed as too high expectations and an elevated valuation multiple.

Capital was softer in 3Q26, viewed as disappointing with the CET1 ratio of around 11.6% the lowest quarterly ratio since 1Q23.

The underlying margin remains "broadly stable excluding non-recurring tailwinds" management stated. This aligned with the analyst's expectations.

The margin is anticipated to trend higher in 4Q26 with higher interest rates against ongoing competition. The broker sees downside risks to loan growth forecasts post budget and with RBA rate hikes.

The stock continues to trade on a forward multiple around 23x well above its five-year pre-covid average of circa 14x. Ongoing de-rating risk is considered high given the macro headwinds.

Target slips to $130 from $131. Underweight rating retained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $130.00 Current Price is $153.67 Difference: minus $23.67 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $125.57, suggesting downside of -19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CBA as Sell (5) -

CommBank's March quarter earnings were below expectations, Morgans notes, both before and after the impact of topping up loan loss provisions. FY26-FY28 forecasts are downgraded by -3-5%.

The broker observes the balance sheet, as per the CET1 ratio, also looks a little tighter than previously observed. The CET1 ratio declined -0.7% to 11.6% and appears to be tracking below forecasts, assuming third quarter profit, credit RWA and other impacts are repeated in the fourth quarter.

Volume forecasts in the Australian housing business have also moderated. Even after the sell-off of around -10% in the shares, Morgans considers the valuation metrics do not provide a sufficient margin of safety and retains a Sell rating. Target is reduced to $119.40 from $124.26.

Target price is $119.40 Current Price is $153.67 Difference: minus $34.27 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $125.57, suggesting downside of -19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CDA as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Codan's DTC UxV radios, used in unmanned aerial vehicles, are the largest and fastest-growing of the UxV segment and opportunities are expanding across other platforms including ground and marine communications, Macquarie observes.

Recent conflicts have underscored the future of warfare is increasingly reliant on these systems. The broker also notes budget allocations to these systems are growing across almost all defence forces.

Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the target lifted to $44.20 from $42.00. The FY26 results are due August 20.

Target price is $44.20 Current Price is $38.55 Difference: $5.65
If CDA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.00, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CRN as Hold (3) -

Coronado Global Resources posted a first quarter result that revealed saleable production of 3mt, limited by weather disruptions. The cash balance decreased to US$121m.

The company plans to deliver a range of measures to increase productivity and Ord Minnett expects operating conditions will improve in coming quarters. There is also increased confidence the financial performance will be more sustainable over the balance of 2026.

Hold rating retained. Target is reduced to $0.26 from $0.36.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.005
If CRN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.39, suggesting upside of 60.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DVP as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter raises its target for Develop Global by 50c to $7.10 and maintains a Buy rating.

The company lost the Bellevue Gold ((BGL)) contract but secured a new underground mining contract at Finniss, partially offsetting the revenue impact, the analysts explain.

The Bellevue loss reflects disciplined bidding rather than a strategic setback, the broker highlights, with the company expected to redeploy resources and pursue a substantial $1.4bn tender pipeline.

Additional support is seen from the Waihi North contract and potential upside from stronger commodity prices at Woodlawn.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $6.21 Difference: $0.89
If DVP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EBR as Buy (1) -

EBR Systems has secured a purchasing agreement with HCA Healthcare in the US, which Morgans believes should not only support more efficient procurement and contracting but also reinforce management's commentary around increasing engagement with large hospital facilities.

The broker continues to view the stock favourably given several positive developments, including 41 commercial implants completed in the first quarter and 55 physicians now trained to implant WiSE, as the company transitions from early adopter hospitals towards wider institutional penetration. Buy rating and $2.47 target maintained.

Target price is $2.47 Current Price is $0.57 Difference: $1.895
If EBR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 330% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

UBS highlights Evolution Mining's growing copper exposure, with Northparkes offering potential to materially lift production over time.

Following a site visit, the broker sees scope to double throughput and increase copper output to over 100ktpa longer term, supporting a higher contribution to group revenue.

While expansion will require significant investment and time, the underlying resource base supports this growth pathway, the analyst believes.

UBS lifts its target price by 5% to $13.80, noting valuation sensitivity to copper prices, and retains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $13.80 Current Price is $13.40 Difference: $0.4
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.84, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FLT as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights the transition of Flight Centre Travel's leisure investments to higher margin niche segments, notably luxury and cruise.

The analyst emphasises the acquisition of Scott Dunn and Iglu reflects management's "doubling down" on highest value products. This also marks a major change from when the company concentrated on offering the cheapest airfares in the market.

Taking upbeat assumptions on doubling of its cruise business to $4bn in total transaction value, more booking online, remote or AI assisted and older wealthier customers, the earnings uplift in the bull case could deliver 18% upside to profit before tax earnings forecasts.

While the analyst questions how realistic the assumptions are, a bull case price target equates to $25 per share.

Overweight rating and a $16.00 target retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $10.56 Difference: $5.44
If FLT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.63, suggesting upside of 49.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FPH as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes it remains early days in the GLP-1 adoption curve, which is driving sentiment, not earnings. Early uptake is expanding engagement in diagnosis rather than displacing demand. Australian penetration also remains well below the US.

Near-term earnings for Fisher & Paykel Healthcare are being driven by diagnosis and adherence, and the current GLP-1 efficacy does not support CPAP displacement.

Equipment earnings are seen driven by OSA diagnosis, therapy initiation and adherence, which Macquarie believes is the most resilient earnings exposure in the current environment.

Outperform. Target is NZ$45.80.

Current Price is $28.19. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HLS as Neutral (3) -

Healius has lowered FY26 EBIT guidance to $30-35m from $48m which Macquarie calculates is equivalent to a downgrade of -32% at the mid point. Weaker GDP attendances meant deteriorating pathology volumes have resulted in lower revenue growth and margins.

While margins have improved because of cost reductions the broker remains cautious. Earnings estimates are downgraded with revised FY26 EBIT at the lower end of guidance and EPS lowered by -111%. Target is reduced to $0.39 from $0.78. Neutral rating reiterated.

Target price is $0.39 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.015
If HLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HLS as Hold (3) -

Healius has downgraded FY26 earnings guidance materially, targeting underlying EBITDA of $259-264m, which disappointed Morgans as guidance was reiterated at the first half result just three months ago.

The downgrade reflects weaker volumes, ongoing softness in GP visits and mounting regulatory/funding pressures, the broker notes, while pathology cost control continues to improve and labour optimisation initiatives are gaining traction.

The company is exploring a potential sale of the Agilex division which surprised Morgans as it continues to perform relatively well, with revenue growth of 13.7% in the year to date. Target is reduced to $0.41 from $0.80. Hold maintained.

Target price is $0.41 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.035
If HLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHX as Buy (1) -

Shares of James Hardie Industries have de-rated by around -20% since March amid concerns over higher interest rates and a softer macro backdrop, Citi believes.

To the broker's surprise, current datapoints point to the company meeting 4Q26 expectations and guiding FY27 earnings broadly in line with pre-conflict consensus.

While uncertainty remains elevated given geopolitical risks, Citi anticipates limited earnings revisions at the upcoming FY26 result on May 20.

Unchanged Buy rating and $42.60 target.

Target price is $42.60 Current Price is $27.87 Difference: $14.73
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.91, suggesting upside of 46.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects elevated volatility around James Hardie Industries' FY26 result on 20 May, with FY27 guidance, synergy delivery and de-leveraging key focus areas.

With shares down around -25% from February highs, expectations are subdued, and the broker leans cautiously positive into the result.

The analysts' base case is for FY27 earnings guidance around -5% below consensus, reflecting conservative assumptions and slower synergy realisation.

Commentary suggests the share price reaction is likely to be highly sensitive to guidance, with outcomes ranging from modest upside on in-line guidance to downside if a larger miss emerges.

Overweight rating and $44 target maintained. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $27.87 Difference: $16.13
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.91, suggesting upside of 46.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MAD as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter sees a favourable outlook for Mader Group heading into FY27, supported by strong mining activity across Australia and North America.

Rising iron ore production and increased equipment spending in Western Australia underpin demand, the analysts explain. Improving mining conditions in the US and Canada are seen as providing additional support.

Execution on labour deployment and expansion into adjacent markets will be key to driving upside to revenue growth, in the broker's view.

Bell Potter retains a Buy rating and $9.70 target, citing attractive valuation and potential catalysts from FY27 guidance upgrades.

Target price is $9.70 Current Price is $7.73 Difference: $1.97
If MAD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MAP as Speculative Buy (1) -

Microba Life Sciences reported core testing revenue in the third quarter of $2.1m, doubling year-on-year and with volumes tracking in line with FY26 guidance of 24,000-plus tests. Core tests are now 64% of group revenue.

Total revenue was $3.4m, reflecting the winding down of legacy products. The stand-out development, Morgans observes, was the enterprise clinic account strategy, with 27 accounts signed since November and carrying more than 19,000 tests per annum of ordering potential.

The broker believes the stock represents an opportunity for long-term upside and highlights, while cash remains tight, the company has flagged a "significant corporate transaction". Speculative Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $0.15 from $0.29.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.068
If MAP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MP1 as Buy (1) -

Megaport has announced three long-term network and storage contracts across two US-based customers representing $90.6m in annualised recurring revenue.

Today's new contract announcement will require upgrades to market consensus, UBS analysts assert in an initial response to the announcement made earlier today.

The broker sees very attractive economics from the deal for the company.

All else equal, at group EBITDA, the broker's preliminary analysis suggests 30% upgrade potential upside to its own group EBITDA forecast with consensus expected having to upgrade by circa 26%.

Buy. $14.65 target.

Target price is $14.65 Current Price is $9.85 Difference: $4.8
If MP1 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.09, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWH as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie adjusts its valuation for NRW Holdings after a strong re-rating in the contractor sector. The valuation remains attractive given the growth outlook and the strategic acquisition of Fredon is performing well, being a key driver of upside risk to consensus forecasts for FY27 and FY28.

Management expects to achieve margin improvement through procurement savings, operating efficiencies and locking in resources for particular clients. Target rises to $8.10 from $6.90 and an Outperform rating is maintained.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $7.36 Difference: $0.74
If NWH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.88, suggesting downside of -8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates OMA as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage on Omega Oil & Gas, highlighting a geology-led strategy to unlock a large unconventional oil and gas opportunity in Queensland's Taroom Trough.

Commentary explains early drilling results have demonstrated promising flow rates, with significant upside potential from undeveloped acreage and proximity to existing infrastructure.

A 2026 appraisal program is expected to expand resources, define productive zones and support initial reserve bookings, providing ongoing news flow.

Bell Potter sees strong leverage to de-risking and east coast gas demand dynamics, initiating with a Speculative Buy rating and $1.45 target.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0.605
If OMA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PDN as Sell (5) -

Paladin Energy provided March quarter financial statements for Canadian investors and Ord Minnett notes the stock fell -12%.

The broker suspects the loss of -US$3m surprised investors and anticipates this loss will expand to -US$46m in the June half, given guidance implies much higher June quarter costs.

Ord Minnett cuts forward EBITDA estimates by -12%-15% and reduces the target to $9.50 from $9.75, finding it hard to justify the current price. Sell.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $11.17 Difference: minus $1.67 (current price is over target).
If PDN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.22, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PME as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett reviews its modelling to incorporate currency movements and recent contract wins for Pro Medicus.

Recently, the company gained a five-year deal worth $23m from the University of Maryland for various parts of its cloud-based Visage 7 digital picture archiving and communication system.

The broker notes the company has secured more than $90m in contract renewals so far in 2026.

The business is considered a net winner from AI, based on industry discussions, both in monetising its own algorithms and acting as a distribution platform for specialist providers in the healthcare market.

Ord Minnett cuts EPS estimates by -3.7% for FY26 and by -4.4% for FY27. Target is reduced to $210 from $220. Buy rating.

Target price is $210.00 Current Price is $125.50 Difference: $84.5
If PME meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $222.50, suggesting upside of 83.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RHC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes it remains early days in the GLP-1 adoption curve, which is driving sentiment, not earnings. Early uptake is expanding engagement in diagnosis rather than displacing demand. Australian penetration also remains well below the US.

Earnings sensitivity for Ramsay Health Care in the near term is driven by admissions and "elective elasticity" amid cost of living pressures, the broker points out. Australian bariatric volumes have already been structurally adjusted and now represent low single-digit share of EBIT.

Outperform. Target is $43.40.

Target price is $43.40 Current Price is $36.67 Difference: $6.73
If RHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.86, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMD as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes it remains early days in the GLP-1 adoption curve, which is driving sentiment, not earnings. Early uptake is expanding engagement in diagnosis rather than displacing demand. Australian penetration also remains well below the US.

Near-term earnings for ResMed are being driven by diagnosis and adherence, and the current GLP-1 efficacy does not support CPAP displacement.

Equipment earnings are seen driven by OSA diagnosis, therapy initiation and adherence, which Macquarie believes is the most resilient earnings exposure in the current environment.

Outperform. Target is $46.50.

Target price is $46.50 Current Price is $28.21 Difference: $18.29
If RMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.41, suggesting upside of 58.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGI as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage on Stealth Group with a Buy rating and $1.30 target. The company is positioned as a leading independent distributor of hardware, industrial, safety and consumer products, delivering across wholesale, retail and trade channels.

The broker notes 11 consecutive years of growth, and with the recent acquisition of Hardware and Building Traders, has transformed into the number one independent alternative to Wesfarmers ((WES)) and Metcash ((MTS)) in the hardware market.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.02 Difference: $0.28
If SGI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SIQ as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley makes no changes to its FY26-FY28 forecasts for Smartgroup Corp but corrects the 1H/2H earnings split to reflect normal seasonality.

The broker expects solid 1H26 growth, supported by strong novated leasing demand, operating leverage and high order backlogs. This assessment is balanced against reinvestment and avoids extrapolating recent strength.

Target raised to $11.00 from $9.10. Morgan Stanley sees upside risks from continued novated momentum, strong visibility and sustained valuation support, retaining an Equal-weight rating. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $11.08 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If SIQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.19, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights significant upside risk to oil prices if disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz persist beyond May. It's felt a prolonged scenario could drive prices to US$150/bbl–US$200/bbl as inventories decline and forward cover tightens.

While the base case remains for resolution by end-May, the broker sees risk of a re-pricing event if geopolitical tensions escalate, with LNG markets also likely to tighten as disruptions extend into European restocking.

Under this scenario, the analyst expects Woodside Energy to outperform Santos, given its greater LNG exposure and trading leverage. Broader energy equities are also expected to benefit from energy security tailwinds.

For Santos: Target $8.65. Buy rating.

Target price is $8.65 Current Price is $7.68 Difference: $0.97
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.13, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TPW as Neutral (3) -

Citi decides to lower its target for Temple & Webster to $5.60 from $8.00. It's felt a greater focus on profitability over growth may pressure valuation multiples and reinforce concerns around management's ability to grow revenue and margins simultaneously.

The Neutral rating is maintained.

A summary of the broker's initial thoughts yesterday follows.

Citi's initial take is Temple & Webster's trading update released earlier today has revealed a deterioration in topline momentum in combination with a pivot to profitability over revenue growth.

This follows the unexpected recent move where the CEO became the Executive Chairman, the broker points out.

Citi would expect Temple & Webster management is hoping this pivot to profitability is short term and in response to the tough macro versus a permanent change to strategy.

If executed correctly, the broker suggests this should mean the business will be better placed to navigate/survive a downturn, whereas some competitors may not.

Citi does prefer to remain cautious, after a number of unexpected pivots to company strategy/management.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.98 Difference: $0.62
If TPW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.51, suggesting upside of 116.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TPW as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie loses confidence in Temple & Webster's path to scale that will enable operating leverage over the next year.

The company faces worsening macro headwinds amid recent rate rises and a federal budget that "disincentivises housing churn", the broker adds.

While constructive on the reduction of costs to preserve profitability, Macquarie believes newly-implemented marketing efficiencies will have a further drag on growth.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. The share price has fallen -56% since the February results. The broker reduces its target to $4.75 from $13.70.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.98 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If TPW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.51, suggesting upside of 116.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TPW as Overweight (1) -

Following a trading update for Temple & Webster, Morgan Stanley notes the FY26 outlook reflects weak consumer conditions.

Both revenue and earnings are tracking below consensus expectations and toward the lower end of guidance, the broker explains.

In better news, a shift toward profitability has driven record April earnings and improved operating leverage. This positions FY27 earnings materially ahead of expectations even in a low-growth environment, the analyst observes.

Valuation support is seen at around 12x FY27 EV/EBITDA, with scope for further upside from margin expansion and a potential return to growth.

Overweight. Target $24. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $4.98 Difference: $19.02
If TPW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 382% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.51, suggesting upside of 116.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TPW as Hold (3) -

The trading update from Temple & Webster was softer than Ord Minnett expected and reflected a "deliberate" shift towards protecting margins in a more challenging consumer environment.

The broker notes this supports profitability but came at the cost of revenue momentum and raises issues around the sustainability of growth and the valuation multiple investors are prepared to pay.

Revenue guidance for FY26 of $665-675m implies growth of 11%-12%, materially below earlier expectations.

Management has attributed the slowdown to weaker consumer behaviour amid volume impacts from passing on higher supplier and delivery costs.

Hence, the broker suggests a near-term return to double-digit sales growth appears unlikely. Hold rating and $6.40 target.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $4.98 Difference: $1.42
If TPW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.51, suggesting upside of 116.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Citi highlights significant upside risk to oil prices if disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz persist beyond May. It's felt a prolonged scenario could drive prices to US$150/bbl–US$200/bbl as inventories decline and forward cover tightens.

While the base case remains for resolution by end-May, the broker sees risk of a re-pricing event if geopolitical tensions escalate, with LNG markets also likely to tighten as disruptions extend into European restocking.

Under this scenario, the analyst expects Woodside Energy to outperform Santos, given its greater LNG exposure and trading leverage. Broader energy equities are also expected to benefit from energy security tailwinds.

For Woodside Energy: Target $33.25. Neutral rating.

Target price is $33.25 Current Price is $30.87 Difference: $2.38
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.42, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WTC as Buy (1) -

UBS highlights DSV confirmed at its Capital Markets Day its plans to initially migrate Schenker volumes onto CargoWise to achieve targeted synergies, before transitioning to its in-house Tango platform from 2027, once customer integration is complete.

Management acknowledged Tango will require further investment to improve productivity, while commentary suggests CargoWise remains the superior platform currently, prompting the analyst to spread its assumed -$50m DSV revenue impact over FY28-FY31 instead of FY27.

The changes result in average 3% upgrades to FY27-FY28 forecasts for revenue, EBITDA and capex forecasts while FY30 forecasts remain broadly unchanged.

As highlighted previously, the broker believes the market is discounting a level of contagion risk for WiseTech Global. The DSV case is viewed as an outlier with DSV acquiring Tango through Schenker offering optionality for in-house capacity.

UBS reiterates its Buy rating. Its price target of $67 is unchanged.

Target price is $67.00 Current Price is $38.53 Difference: $28.47
If WTC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $76.79, suggesting upside of 109.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates XRO as Buy (1) -

In an early assessment, Citi notes Xero today delivered a modest earnings 'beat' in FY26, though higher R&D capitalisation and a miss at the profit level tempered the result.

Overall, the result is considered strong when taking into account US momentum, subscribers coming in ahead, Melio beating expectations, as well as positive FY27 guidance.

The broker explains guidance for FY27 is marginally above consensus, supported by continued growth, although increased investment and normalising R&D capitalisation are expected.

Subscriber growth came in slightly ahead of the analysts' expectation, with strong momentum in the US and UK, while annualised monthly recurring revenue (AMRR) trends point to upside risk for FY27 revenue forecasts.

A $550m buyback was announced to offset share-based compensation dilution.

Separately, Xero's recent system outage appears to have been short-lived, Citi assures, though some users continued to report access issues.

The company has offered customer credits, likely limited to Australian subscribers given the impact on tax deadlines, though the exact quantum is unclear, the analyst notes.

Citi expects the financial impact to be modest, estimating a worst-case revenue impact of around -NZ$25m, with the actual effect likely lower.

Xero is Buy rated with a $112.65 target.

Target price is $112.65 Current Price is $81.00 Difference: $31.65
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $142.38, suggesting upside of 92.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates XRO as Buy (1) -

UBS' initial assessment is Xero's performance has overall beaten expectations with UK, US and Melio metrics strengthening alongside a solid FY27 guidance.

The analysts state they now have greater confidence in the progress the company is making.

Target $127. Buy.

Target price is $127.00 Current Price is $81.00 Difference: $46
If XRO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $142.38, suggesting upside of 92.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ZZZ as Equal-weight (3) -

Media reports reveal Atlas Arteria has appointed advisers to potentially sell its interest in the Chicago Skyway. Morgan Stanley values Atlas' share of the Skyway at US$1.2bn or $1.13 per security.

Atlas Arteria has received some $332m in distributions and re-gearing proceeds from the Skyway since 2022. The broker estimates 2026 distributions of $36m.

Atlas has not commented on use of proceeds if a sale were to close, but has a modest $5-10m growth budget to assess brownfield OECD toll roads.

Equal-weight and $4.71 target retained.

Target price is $4.71

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources