Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates A2M as Hold (3) -

a2 Milk Co has received approval for the label transition of the two brand slots acquired as part of the Pokeno acquisition.

Bell Potter notes this is key to turning it EBITDA positive by FY28. This now clears the way to decoupling the China label revenue from Synlait Milk ((SM1)).

The broker adjusts forecasts, noting debate centres around the wide forecast ranges for EBITDA in FY27, at NZ$296-NZ$415m.

Bell Potter believes, at current share prices, the stock is on the expensive side of the consumer sector and retains a Hold rating. Target is raised to $6.90 from $6.75.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $6.77 Difference: $0.13
If A2M meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.30, suggesting upside of 21.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AHL as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter has observed the payment to both the managing director, Paul Proctor, and non-executive chairman, Donald McGurk, announced by Adrad after the first half results, now appears to be forthcoming, given it was dependent on a minimum 15% uplift in the value of the company by the end of a specified period.

The broker now makes an adjustment based on the current share price, choosing to accrue the full payment potential across each of FY26, FY27 and FY28. Downgrades to statutory EBITDA forecasts are made as a result.

Hold rating maintained. Target rises to $1.35 from $1.15.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: minus $0.105 (current price is over target).
If AHL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AIS as Buy (1) -

The scheme of arrangement whereby Aeris Resources acquires Peel Mining ((PEX)) has become effective. The transaction provides ownership of the Mallee Bull and Wirlong copper projects.

This will significantly increase the company's Cobar-region resource base, materially extending the mine life at Tritton and adding development options.

Bell Potter makes no changes to valuation at this point in time, continuing to look to the quarterly production performance and updates on the development of Constellation as near-term catalysts. A Buy rating and $0.90 target are maintained.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.5
If AIS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 125% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.78, suggesting upside of 93.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALL as Buy (1) -

The latest  gaming sweep data showed Aristocrat Leisure's land-based slots indexed 2.2x against zone for premium leased games in May compared to 2.2x in April and 2.38x a year earlier. 

The gaming company's portfolio contained seven of the top ten premium leased and WAP games, with Monopoly ranking number one and Spooky Link premium ranked number four. 

The analyst notes Spooky Link (non-premium) has maintained number one in outright sale games boosted by the launch of Spicy Fortunes. UBS estimates US iGaming gross gaming revenue is up 15% in May to date on the previous year.

The stock remains Buy rated with a $69.40 target price. 

Target price is $69.40 Current Price is $56.57 Difference: $12.83
If ALL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $63.33, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALX as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes Atlas Arteria’s takeover defence is now in play after management lifted FY26 distributions by 50% to 60cps, largely reflecting potential proceeds from the sale of the Warnow Tunnel and additional borrowing.

The broker views the proposed EUR100m-EUR115m sale price for the German toll road favourably, as it exceeds Citi’s EUR92m valuation. The transaction is expected to dilute future free cash flow (FCF) and distributions.

While IFM Investor's stake in Atlas has risen to 42.01%, Citi’s discussions with investors suggest the takeover offer is unlikely to succeed, with many shareholders viewing the bid as undervaluing the company.

The broker retains a $5.10 target and Neutral rating, citing concerns around lower future distributions and the presence of a large activist shareholder on the register. 

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $5.10 Difference: $0
If ALX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AMC as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Following Berry Global merger, management identified around US$2.5bn in non-core revenue across lower-growth or lower-margin businesses lacking scale or leadership positions, Morgans explains.

The broker believes these assets could be worth approximately US$1.8bn and notes agreements have already been reached to sell six businesses for around US$500m.

Proceeds are expected to be used to reduce leverage. The analyst expects a share price re-rating given leverage's strong historical inverse relationship with Amcor’s forward PE multiple.

Morgans maintains its $65.40 target for Amcor and downgrades its rating to Accumulate from Buy on valuation.

Target price is $65.40 Current Price is $58.36 Difference: $7.04
If AMC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $67.57, suggesting upside of 16.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates APA as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights APA Group as its preferred Australia/New Zealand infrastructure stock. In the broker's survey of 26 investors, around 40% selected APA as their preferred infrastructure investment.

The analysts believe APA offers an attractive combination of secure CPI-linked earnings and exposure to growing energy infrastructure investment. This combination is supported by increasing government focus on domestic energy security, Citi highlights.

The analysts also see upside from rising data centre power demand benefiting APA’s generation assets.

The broker rates APA Buy and forecasts an approximately 8% free cash flow (FCF) yield, alongside annual FCF growth of more than 3% through to FY30.

Citi retains a Buy rating with a target of $11.10.

Target price is $11.10 Current Price is $10.31 Difference: $0.79
If APA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.37, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has confirmed El Nino conditions and lifted the probability of a "very strong" event to 63% for Nov-Jan, Morgan Stanley points out, noting it could be the strongest on record.

The commodities team emphasises the risks to supply are more elevated for copper, with Chile possibly encountering flood, mudslide, and infrastructure risks. Zambia could face drought and hydropower shortages.

Aluminium and zinc could also be faced with challenges around Yunnan hydropower availability. The risks to lithium come from Chile brines, where more intense rainfall could dilute ponds or challenge logistics.

Iron ore exposure is viewed as lower with less cyclones and thermal coal could be boosted by higher demand with hotter Asian weather and less hydropower.

The broker has an Overweight rating on BHP Group with a $67.50 target. Offsets from drier weather at SA copper, iron ore and coal are expected to counter Chilean copper production and Peru.

Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $67.50 Current Price is $60.34 Difference: $7.16
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $59.57, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CAR as Buy (1) -

The UBS online classifieds trackers shows CAR Group's inventories continued to fall in May, down -7% on the prior year against a -4% fall for the three-month average.

Dealer inventories are rising up 9% y/y which aligns with the three month average while private falling further, down -25% y/y versus the three month average of down -19%.

New vehicles rose 10% y/y, above the three month average of 4% and used down -9% y/y versus the three month average down -5%.

The analyst notes total inventory market share for CAR slipped -2% m/m to 57% with Gumtree at 22% and Carsguide 21%.

Buy rated. Target $33.80.

Target price is $33.80 Current Price is $26.83 Difference: $6.97
If CAR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.90, suggesting upside of 30.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CCR as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans initiates research coverage on Credit Clear with a Speculative Buy rating and $0.30 target, highlighting the company’s proprietary digital collections platform and growing position in contingent debt collections.

The broker believes Credit Clear is well placed to consolidate market share across Australia, New Zealand and the larger UK market through both organic growth and acquisitions.

FY26 guidance implies to the analyst revenue growth of 24% and earnings (EBITDA) growth of 34%, supported by recent acquisitions.

Morgans also points to a strong balance sheet, with $20.9m in cash and no drawn debt, providing flexibility for further expansion.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.09
If CCR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CNI as Hold (3) -

Centuria Capital has announced a fully underwritten $300m equity raising via a $200m institutional placement and a $100m 1-for-17 accelerated non-renounceable pro rata entitlement offer.

Bell Potter adjusts operating EPS estimates for FY26-FY28 to reflect the impact of the equity raising and updated business deployment assumptions. Hold rating. Target is reduced to $2.00 from $2.15.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $2.18 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If CNI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.00, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CNI as Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform (5) -

Centuria Capital is undertaking a fully underwritten $300m equity raising at $2.00 per share to accelerate growth in its ResetData platform and real estate funds management business.

Macquarie notes ResetData’s expansion could ultimately require more than $300m of equity and is unlikely to be profitable before FY28, with earnings dependent on securing higher-margin customer contracts.

The broker raises its earnings forecasts but downgrades its rating to Underperform from Outperform on valuation grounds.

While acknowledging the option value in ResetData, Macquarie believes the business remains unproven and would prefer evidence of profitable contract wins before assigning greater value. The target rises to $1.88 from $1.78.

It's also noted interest rate expectations remain critical for capital flows for the Centuria real estate funds management business.

Target price is $1.88 Current Price is $2.18 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If CNI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.00, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie assesses in-store retail media/digital advertising placements are a significant opportunity. Retail media is very profitable, the broker asserts, because it monetises retail traffic and data with margins that are around 15x that of comparable dollar retail sales.

It could be a $5.5bn industry by 2030 compared to just $1.9bn today, Macquarie calculates, and Coles' Coles360 could be a $1bn or more business. Outperform rating and $24.10 target.

Target price is $24.10 Current Price is $23.69 Difference: $0.41
If COL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.86, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie highlights Computershare’s Global Corporate Trust division now accounts for around 45% of group earnings (EBITDA), making it a key earnings driver.

While higher US interest rates have historically supported earnings, the broker notes the catalyst for stronger issuance volumes is actually lower rates, which would encourage securitisation activity and mortgage refinancing.

The broker points to recent market share losses for Computershare, with issuance growth lagging the broader market, while competitors such as BNY Mellon and US Bancorp have strengthened their technology offerings.

Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and $36.00 target, viewing the current valuation as fair while awaiting stronger debt and equity market activity.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $36.74 Difference: minus $0.74 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.04, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CQR as Buy (1) -

Citi notes that while Retail REITs offer greater near-term resilience than office and industrial property stocks, investor attention is increasingly shifting toward the medium-term value opportunity in residential real estate.

The broker, however, believes Retail remains better insulated from near-term house price risks associated with the 2026/27 budget and the current interest-rate environment.

Citi's Buy rating and $4.50 target are maintained for Charter Hall Retail REIT.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.99 Difference: $0.51
If CQR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EOS as Buy (1) -

Electro Optic Systems has received an order worth US$124m for its Slinger counter-drone equipment and entered a binding joint venture with Gen5, a UAE-owned defence company. This covers its High Energy Laser Weapon and Remote Weapon System franchises.

The company understands the order is intended to strengthen defence capability in the Middle East with manufacturing split between Australia and the UAE and delivery across 2027 and 2028.

The joint venture is expected to be based in Abu Dhabi on a 50/50 equity and profit-sharing basis which the company believes could begin contributing results from 2027 or 2028 onwards. Bell Potter retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $12.50 from $10.60.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $10.26 Difference: $2.24
If EOS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EQT as Accumulate (2) -

EQT Holdings has announced it is leaving the superannuation trustee business, post the February strategic review.

Ord Minnett does not see the decision as surprising albeit the analyst points out no sale process was announced but management is expecting an additional update before the FY26 results are announced.

Several one off costs are expected to be released the analyst points out including -$13m impairment (non-cash) for the super trustee business as well as further costs for the strategic review, -$4.7m in 2H26 and legal costs of -$2m (Shield and First Guardian related).

The broker forecasts a potential circa -4% impact on EPS, depending on the sale price.

Accumulate rating and $17.75 target are retained.

Target price is $17.75 Current Price is $16.60 Difference: $1.15
If EQT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FLT as Buy (1) -

Flight Centre Travel recently downgraded FY26 guidance and has started a $200m share buy back.

Management highlighted PBT growth of around 10% for 1Q26-3Q26, even growing to 20% before the current June, fourth quarter was affected by the Middle East war.

Ord Minnett notes leisure earnings are expected to be down around -$50m versus prior expectations.

EPS forecasts are lowered by -12% in FY26 and down -15% in FY27. Target price slips to $14.58 from $16.64, previously.

No change to Buy rating.

Target price is $14.58 Current Price is $11.94 Difference: $2.64
If FLT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.45, suggesting upside of 23.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IAG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie’s survey of Australia’s largest general and private health insurers found call centre costs account for around 4.1% of premiums for general insurers but only 0.3% for health insurers.

Most insurers operate call centres in-house, while private health insurers maintain entirely Australian-based operations compared with 83% for general insurers, the analyst highlights.

While AI-driven efficiency gains are often viewed as a way to offset rising technology costs, the broker notes software providers are increasingly adopting usage-based pricing models.

Overall, Macquarie concludes industry costs are unlikely to decline materially in the near term.

The $9.00 target and Outperform rating for Insurance Australia Group are maintained.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.22 Difference: $0.78
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.23, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Outperform (1) -

China's Ministry of Commerce has added 10 US industrial and defence-linked entities to its export control list, prohibiting exports of Chinese-origin dual-use materials and technologies to these companies and relevant third-party suppliers.

Macquarie notes this could tighten supply of rare earths outside of China as both MP Materials and USA Rare Earth are included in the prohibited entities.

Despite ongoing mineral sands market headwinds, Macquarie notes early signs of recovery are emerging and 2026 could represent an inflection point for Iluka Resources, supported by multiple catalysts including a rare earths offtake update expected in the near term.

Outperform rating and $8.40 target.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $8.13 Difference: $0.27
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.65, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LNW as Buy (1) -

The latest  gaming sweep data showed Light & Wonder's portfolio continuing to be boosted by Ultimate Fire Link refresh, UBS points out. Piggy Bankin' and Lion Link are number three and four, respectively in top outright sale games.

The analyst notes US commercial gaming revenues to date are up 2.5% on the prior year in May with 52% reported thus far and up 3% trailing 12-month.

The broker estimates US iGaming gross gaming revenue is up 15% on the previous period in May to date.

The stock is Buy rated with a $210 unchanged target price.

Target price is $210.00 Current Price is $124.51 Difference: $85.49
If LNW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $188.00, suggesting upside of 54.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LYC as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie upgrades Lynas Rare Earths to Outperform from Neutral, believing China's export controls could delay rare earth supply growth and tighten the market. This will reinforce Lynas' strategic premium as the largest ex-China separated rare earth producer.

A key differentiator, the broker points out, is confirmation by Lynas management that reagents and equipment for current operations expansion will be sourced outside China. Target rises to $22 from $20.

China's Ministry of Commerce has added 10 US industrial and defence-linked entities to its export control list, prohibiting exports of Chinese-origin dual-use materials and technologies to these companies and relevant third-party suppliers.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $18.62 Difference: $3.38
If LYC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.10, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MEI as Outperform (1) -

China's Ministry of Commerce has added 10 US industrial and defence-linked entities to its export control list, prohibiting exports of Chinese-origin dual-use materials and technologies to these companies and relevant third-party suppliers.

Macquarie notes this could tighten supply of rare earths outside of China as both MP Materials and USA Rare Earth are included in the prohibited entities.

The broker envisages continued pilot plant operations as supportive of renewed offtake discussions which will be a key catalyst for Meteoric Resources. Outperform rating and $0.45 target.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: $0.3
If MEI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 200% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.32, suggesting upside of 126.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie’s survey of Australia’s largest general and private health insurers found call centre costs account for around 4.1% of premiums for general insurers but only 0.3% for health insurers.

Most insurers operate call centres in-house, while private health insurers maintain entirely Australian-based operations compared with 83% for general insurers, the analyst highlights.

While AI-driven efficiency gains are often viewed as a way to offset rising technology costs, the broker notes software providers are increasingly adopting usage-based pricing models.

Overall, Macquarie concludes industry costs are unlikely to decline materially in the near term.

The $4.80 target and Neutral rating for Medibank Private are maintained.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.91 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.12, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MTS as Sell (5) -

After a further review of Metcash's FY26 results, Citi maintains its Sell rating and $2.80 target price.

The broker is concerned falling house prices and rising building materials inflation could further weaken construction activity.

Meanwhile, it's also thought independent supermarkets are facing negative operating leverage, raising the risk Metcash may need to provide additional support.

A summary of Citi's research yesterday follows.

Metcash today reported FY26 underlying net profit of $268.8m, in line with guidance, while first-half FY27 trading has produced mixed results across its divisions, Citi initially assesses. A final dividend of 9.5 cents was declared, above the broker's 9 cent forecast. 

Within the segments, Food sales are tracking weaker than consensus expectations, Liquor is in line while Hardware is tracking ahead, the analyst notes.

The trading update for the first seven weeks of 1H27 showed softer momentum in supermarkets, with sales growth of 0.7% compared with consensus expectations for 1.7% growth in FY27, the broker highlights.

Liquor is tracking steadily at 1.3%, broadly in line with consensus, and both Food and Liquor improved in June after a soft May.

Hardware sales rose 5.8%, well ahead of Citi and consensus expectations of 3.2% growth for FY27, although it's thought trading conditions remain challenging and retail margins are still under pressure.

The broker also highlights a -$10m earnings headwind from the completion of the accelerated tobacco excise program.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $3.12 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If MTS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MTS as Neutral (3) -

Metcash reported FY26 underlying profit of $268.8m, in line with guidance, while earnings modestly exceeded consensus expectations, Macquarie notes.

Guidance for depreciation, amortisation and net interest expense implies to the analyst downside risk to FY27 consensus forecasts.

Despite, this, the first seven weeks of trading demonstrated resilience, with Hardware delivering particularly strong growth, Macquarie observes.

Management continues to increase direct retail exposure, targeting ownership of 25%-30% of IGA network revenue through store acquisitions, Macquarie explains. Retail now accounts for circa 14% of earnings, up from 9% in FY20.

The broker maintains its Neutral rating, citing solid execution against strategic priorities but a mixed outlook given supplier inflation, pressure on IGA pricing competitiveness and an expected slowdown in housing turnover. The target rises to $3.20 from $3.00.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.12 Difference: $0.08
If MTS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MTS as Equal-weight (3) -

Metcash reported FY26 EBIT of $503.7m, within guidance ranges. Supermarkets ex tobacco revenue rose 2.6% with retail like-for-like sales up 0.6% and foot traffic down -1.9%.

The company also progressed its retail ownership strategy, completing its first supermarket acquisitions in the fourth quarter. Cost reduction programs remain on track. Morgan Stanley notes FY27 sales to date are up 2.4% with softer trading conditions seen in May and an improvement in June.

Management envisages share gains in liquor are sustainable, while retail margins in hardware remain below mid-cycle with no market recovery evident. Morgan Stanley retains an Equal-weight rating and $3.20 target. Industry View: Cautious.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.12 Difference: $0.08
If MTS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MTS as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Ord Minnett points out Metcash's trading update for the first seven weeks of FY27 came up short of expectations and consensus estimates.

Notably, the major food and liquor businesses grew at a run rate that is well below consensus outlook for FY27, albeit sales growth in hardware was robust.

The FY26 results met management guidance. The analyst flags a further erosion of trading conditions for the hardware segment over the next 6-12 months with a refreshed loyalty trade program for competitor Bunnings ((WES)) posing more potential challenges.

EPS forecasts are downgraded by -7.4% for FY27 and down -10.2% for FY28. The rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy with a lower target price of $3.50 from $3.70 due to the lower expected hardware growth.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.12 Difference: $0.38
If MTS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MTS as Buy (1) -

Metcash reported FY26 result with underlying earnings (EBIT) in line with guidance, UBS remarks.

Cash realisation was 105.9%, a robust result but indications of FY27 trading are inferring a softer outlook, the analyst explains.

Sales for the first 7 weeks of 1H27 rose 1.9% with supermarkets, ex tobacco up 1.2%, compared to consensus forecast of 3.4% growth for 1H27. Sales for liquor, up 1.3% over the period aligns with 1H27 consensus forecasts.

Hardware and Tools sales are tracking above consensus for 1H27 expectations.

EPS forecasts are cut by -14% for FY27 and -11% for FY28 due to lower food and higher D&A and net finance costs.

The broker retains a Buy rating, despite the downgraded earnings estimates. The company is viewed as resilient and diverse with growth for liquor, hardware and tools a positive. The dividend yield and valuation are also deemed as attractive.

Target price set at $3.40 from $3.50.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.12 Difference: $0.28
If MTS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PLS as Equal-weight (3) -

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has confirmed El Nino conditions and lifted the probability of a "very strong" event to 63% for Nov-Jan, Morgan Stanley points out, noting it could be the strongest on record.

The commodities team emphasises the risks to supply are more elevated for copper, with Chile possibly encountering flood, mudslide, and infrastructure risks. Zambia could face drought and hydropower shortages.

Aluminium and zinc could also be faced with challenges around Yunnan hydropower availability. The risks to lithium come from Chile brines, where more intense rainfall could dilute ponds or challenge logistics.

Iron ore exposure is viewed as lower with less cyclones and thermal coal could be boosted by higher demand with hotter Asian weather and less hydropower.

Morgan Stanley retains an Equal-weight rating on Pilbara Minerals, preferring the stock to Underweight-rated IGO ((IGO)).

Equal-weight rating and $5.60 target Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.53 Difference: $0.07
If PLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.96, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PLS as Accumulate (2) -

PLS Group has pointed out $175m of early capex for works on its P2000 expansion at Pilgangoora lithium operations.

Ord Minnett notes a final investment decision is expected in December quarter of 2026. The capex will be funded from operating cash flow and some 50% of the spending was included in the preliminary feasibility study capex of $1.2bn in 2024.

The analyst also flags more capex to handle the rising strip ratios as capacity at Pilgangoora is lifted to 2mt of spodumene concentrate annually.

EPS forecasts are raised by 2.1% for FY26 and FY27 tweaked lower.

Target price slips to $6.10 from $6.50. Accumulate.

The broker points out the spot lithium price is implying free cash flow of $1.5bn, enough to finance targeted growth.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.53 Difference: $0.57
If PLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.96, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QAN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley is more confident following the recent showcase from Qantas Airways/Airbus in Toulouse, France. As execution of Project Sunrise progresses the broker envisages scope for a re-rating of Qantas International.

From October 2027 Qantas plans to operate daily non-stop flights between Sydney and London and the first 12 Project Sunrise aircraft should be received in April 2027.

The broker points out this is an extension of an existing, successful ultra long-haul strategy which could save consumers 3-4 hours of travel time in exchange for a 15%-20% ticket price premium.

Morgan Stanley reiterates an Overweight rating with a $10.60 target. Industry view: In line.

Target price is $10.60 Current Price is $10.09 Difference: $0.51
If QAN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.73, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QAN as Buy (1) -

Qantas Airways announced last week in Toulouse, Project Sunrise SYD-LHR services will start in October 2027 and be on sale in February.

The service as articulated by UBS will be the ultra long "proposition" which will be different from competitors including the newest aircraft technology, shorter travel times with lower risks around stopover times.

The analyst believes the Sunrise innovation is unlikely to be matched as northern hemisphere carriers do not necessarily have as many use cases.

Management estimates Sunrise earnings (EBIT) of $400m p.a. at full rate, which aligns with the business case as at 2023.

Buy rated with a $11.15 target price.

Target price is $11.15 Current Price is $10.09 Difference: $1.06
If QAN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.73, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REA as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie remains cautious on REA Group, arguing Australia faces a challenging housing backdrop alongside significant policy reform. It's felt this combination could weigh on house prices and residential listing volumes over the medium term.

The broker expects listing volumes to decline by a cumulative -6% across FY27-FY29, reflecting the impact of housing reforms, weaker consumer confidence and uncertainty around immigration settings.

Macquarie notes the group has historically traded at lower valuation multiples during periods of falling house prices.

While the analyst's earnings forecasts are largely unchanged, the target falls to $155 from $190.

Target price is $155.00 Current Price is $135.77 Difference: $19.23
If REA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $186.88, suggesting upside of 42.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates REA as Neutral (3) -

UBS observes May national new listings from REA Group's proptrack data rose 1.9% y/y, a slowdown from an average 9% growth for the three month average.

The broker points out one less business day versus last year in May as well as sentiment impacts from the May budget impacted the May data.

Cotality data infers new listings rose 4% y/y for the average four weeks to June 14th, up from 1% y/y growth in May. The analyst suggests listings growth could continue to lift in June.

The stock is Neutral rated with a $165 target price.

Target price is $165.00 Current Price is $135.77 Difference: $29.23
If REA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $186.88, suggesting upside of 42.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RPL as Buy (1) -

After a short break, Bell Potter transfers coverage of Regal Partners to Hayden Nicholson, upgrading earnings estimates and retaining a Buy rating and $4.70 target.

The broker considers the valuation undemanding and views the emergence of performance fees, capital management and broader investment strategies as an opportunity to narrow the discount and drive a re-rating in the stock.

Bell Potter also notes a strong balance sheet de-risks its view and successful execution of the aspirational blueprint to double offshore client capital should provide a pathway to growth in the medium term.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $2.91 Difference: $1.79
If RPL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.57, suggesting upside of 58.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RWC as Hold (3) -

Morgans maintains a Hold rating on Reliance Worldwide and lifts its target to $3.60 from $3.25 after the company announced further manufacturing rationalisation, including the closure of Australian brass casting, forging and machining operations.

In a quick response following today's announcement, Morgans says the move should deliver around US$9m in annualised net EBITDA savings by end-FY27, though FY26 will absorb -US$100-110m in one-off costs, mostly non-cash.

Forecasts are unchanged at the underlying level for FY26, but EBITDA estimates rise by 1% for FY27 and 3% for FY28.

Morgans remains cautious given uncertainty around the timing of a housing recovery.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.67 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If RWC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.90, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGH as Outperform (1) -

SGH Ltd will undertake a $500m share buyback following its FY26 result, which Macquarie views as a credible capital management alternative should the proposed BlueScope Steel ((BSL)) transaction not proceed.

The broker still believes M&A remains the preferred strategic option and expects limited buyback execution if the BlueScope bid remains active.

Macquarie also highlights favourable weather conditions as a near-term tailwind for Boral, prompting upgrades to earnings forecasts.

The broker retains an Outperform rating for SGH Ltd, citing potential upside from further BlueScope developments, improved Boral trading conditions and reinforced capital discipline. The target rises to $51.25 from $50.35.

Target price is $51.25 Current Price is $44.57 Difference: $6.68
If SGH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $51.00, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TAH as Buy (1) -

Applying the UBS gaming evidence lab data, the broker highlights wagering market app usage is trending down -5% 2H26-to-date on the previous year.

Tabcorp Holdings' app usage has remained robust at around 23% with Ladbrokes down to around a 5% share.

The stock remains Buy rated with a $1.05 target. The analyst believes the benefits of strategic improvement have yet to be discounted with Austrack risk more reflected in the current valuation.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.86 Difference: $0.195
If TAH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.06, suggesting upside of 29.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLC as Buy (1) -

Based on the UBS gaming tracker, the broker estimates underlying lottery turnover is down -8% in 2H26-to-date against last year which has been driven by "unlucky statistical outcomes" rather than a feature of underlying demand.

The current June half year is shaping up to be the first half year without a $100m-plus draw since 2021, the analyst points out, despite two price rises in Powerball and one in OzLotto.

Lottery Corp remains Buy rated with an unchanged $6.15 target.

Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $5.56 Difference: $0.59
If TLC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.86, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has confirmed El Nino conditions and lifted the probability of a "very strong" event to 63% for Nov-Jan, Morgan Stanley points out, noting it could be the strongest on record.

The commodities team emphasises the risks to supply are more elevated for copper, with Chile possibly encountering flood, mudslide, and infrastructure risks. Zambia could face drought and hydropower shortages.

Aluminium and zinc could also be faced with challenges around Yunnan hydropower availability. The risks to lithium come from Chile brines, where more intense rainfall could dilute ponds or challenge logistics.

Iron ore exposure is viewed as lower with less cyclones and thermal coal could be boosted by higher demand with hotter Asian weather and less hydropower.

Whitehaven Coal could benefit from reduced NSW/Qld logistics disruptions and weaker SE Asian hydropower.

Overweight. Target is $9.55. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $9.55 Current Price is $8.27 Difference: $1.28
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.31, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WOW as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie assesses in-store retail media/digital advertising placements are a significant opportunity. Retail media is very profitable, the broker asserts, because it monetises retail traffic and data with margins that are around 15x that of comparable dollar retail sales.

It could be a $5.5bn industry by 2030 compared to just $1.9bn today, Macquarie calculates. Woolworths' Cartology business is estimated to have generated around $700m in revenue and $300m in EBIT in FY25. Neutral rating and $34 target.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $38.55 Difference: minus $4.55 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.34, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources