Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

The focus at the upcoming banking results will be on credit quality and provisioning, given the deteriorating macro outlook, Macquarie asserts. Bank valuations have generally held up since February, with higher rates offsetting concerns about credit quality or lower volumes.

Attention at the first half results for ANZ Bank will be on continued progress with cost reductions and how the bank is addressing market share losses. The broker envisages upside risk to bad debts and expects the bank to top up provisions.

Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $34.00 from $35.50.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $38.46 Difference: minus $4.46 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.71, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ANZ as Lighten (4) -

In light of the war in the Middle East, Ord Minnett has revisited the banking sector, which has underpinned an average EPS forecast downgrade of 0% to -3% in FY26 for the Big Four, with FY27/FY28 EPS estimates upgraded between 3-4%.

The analyst notes the market is now pricing in at least two more 25bp rate rises from the RBA, taking the cash rate to 4.6%, with the first as soon as May.

ANZ Bank remains Lighten rated with an unchanged target of $33. EPS forecasts are tweaked lower in FY26 and lifted 2.8% for FY28.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $38.46 Difference: minus $5.46 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.71, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie expects the third quarter iron ore, copper and coal production from BHP Group will be in line, as a strong result from Escondida offsets weakness at Spence.

The main points to look out for will be realised pricing in iron ore, as well as unit costs in copper and commentary regarding BMA's costs, given higher Australian fuel costs.

The broker points out the company is in a "tricky position", negotiating a critical deal with the CMRG as it navigates a geopolitically-driven energy shock.

Tier 1 assets should benefit from cost curve inflation while cost control will remain important. Target edges up to $53 from $52 and a Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $53.00 Current Price is $56.10 Difference: minus $3.1 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $54.05, suggesting downside of -3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley has raised medium-term oil prices, which is creating some concerns around demand for commodities, with strategic stockpiling in some instances acting as an offset, notably copper.

EPS forecasts for BHP Group have been upgraded by 2% in FY26 and 15% in FY27, with a higher target price of $57.50 and an Overweight rating retained.

The analyst views bigger diversified miners as offering relative safety against the uncertain geopolitical backdrop, with BHP Group the preferred stock, which is rated number four in the broker's preferred exposure.

Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $57.50 Current Price is $56.10 Difference: $1.4
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $54.05, suggesting downside of -3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOE as Underperform (5) -

Boss Energy has cut FY26 production guidance to 1.40-1.45Mlbs (down from 1.60Mlbs) with most of the downgrade blamed on impacts from extended wet weather.

In a quick response, Macquarie analysts highlights isolating 2H FY26, the guidance cut is -11% from 760klbs to 675klbs.

Management has retained prior cost guidance (though pointing towards the upper level) and Macquarie sees confirmation the company has been more immune from sulphuric acid supply chain issues than other international peers sourcing from the Strait of Hormuz.

The broker prefers to remain cautious ahead of the new Honeymoon feasibility study (Sept quarter 2026), believing this event carries risk given relatively novel wellfield spacing.

Underperform. Target $1.30.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.73 Difference: minus $0.425 (current price is over target).
If BOE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.64, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BOQ as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Morgans raises its target for Bank of Queensland to $7.39 from $7.03 and downgrades to Hold from Accumulate.

A weaker 1H26 result is anticipated on April 22, with earnings impacted by lower revenue, modest margin pressure and higher provisioning.

The broker notes recent share price strength has been driven by expectations of a capital return from the equipment finance whole-of-loan sale, limiting further upside.

While the transaction is expected to support returns and capital management flexibility, Morgans forecasts earnings will decline in the near term.

Target price is $7.39 Current Price is $7.40 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.84, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CBA as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie asserts bank valuations have generally held up since February, with higher rates offsetting concerns about credit quality or lower volumes.

Despite very elevated valuations at CommBank, the broker envisages limited earnings risk in the short term. CBA also is the best provisioned of the banks, suggesting less risk of higher bad debts.

Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $117 from $120.

Target price is $117.00 Current Price is $183.52 Difference: minus $66.52 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $127.08, suggesting downside of -30.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CBA as Sell (5) -

In light of the war in the Middle East, Ord Minnett has revisited the banking sector, which has underpinned an average EPS forecast downgrade of 0% to -3% in FY26 for the Big Four, with FY27/FY28 EPS estimates upgraded between 3-4%.

The analyst notes the market is now pricing in at least two more 25bp rate rises from the RBA, taking the cash rate to 4.6%, with the first as soon as May.

CommBank remains Sell rated with a $120 target. EPS forecasts are tweaked lower in FY26 and lifted by 2.5% in FY27.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $183.52 Difference: minus $63.52 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $127.08, suggesting downside of -30.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CCL as Buy (1) -

Cuscal has acquired NZ payments infrastructure provider Paymark for -$27m, funded via a $33m equity raise, Ord Minnett details, and the deal is expected to be EPS accretive in FY27.

The acquisition is viewed as strategically consistent, providing geographic expansion and a scalable beachhead in New Zealand, complementing the recent Indue transaction.

Both acquisitions were completed at low multiples, offering valuation upside relative to the broker’s estimated valuation.

Earnings forecasts slip slightly in FY26, and lift 5.6%, 4.2% for FY27-FY28, respectively.

Target price increased to $5.45 from $5.10. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $4.21 Difference: $0.24
If CCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CSC as Buy (1) -

Morgans adjusts 2026 production forecasts for Capstone Copper to better reflect maintenance phasing across assets and a revised production mix for cathode and sulphide output at Mantos Blancos and Mantoverde. The first quarter results are expected on April 30. 

The broker observes, while the medium-long-term outlook has been tempered in recent months, growth remains significant and the stock looks "cheap" versus peers.

Buy rating maintained while the target is reduced to $15.40 from $16.00.

Target price is $15.40 Current Price is $12.66 Difference: $2.74
If CSC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.56, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CWY as Outperform (1) -

Cleanaway Waste Management has quantified the FY26 impact from higher fuel costs and operating disruptions in the Middle East, reducing EBIT guidance to $460-480m.

While fuel supply is considered firm the company is not discounting market softness in the outlook. In addition, the oil crisis is not a structural impost on profitability, rather it is driven by timing, as contracts allow for fuel costs to be passed through.

Macquarie still finds the majority of the business relatively defensive although visibility on demand is not so clear. Target is reduced to $3.35 from $3.40 and FY26 and FY27 EPS estimates are reduced by -5.3% and -4.5%, respectively. Outperform.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $1.08
If CWY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.05, suggesting upside of 32.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CWY as Buy (1) -

Cleanaway Waste Management has revised down FY26 EBIT guidance as a result of the war in the Middle East. EBIT guidance has been downgraded to $460-480m from $480-500m.

The company has indicated most of its contracted prices will reflect recent fuel price increases by July 1 2026, with a minority of adjustments to take effect later in FY27.

Morgans makes a -3% downgrade to FY26 EBITDA estimates with underlying EPS downgraded -8% and FY27-28 downgraded -3-5%.

Buy rating maintained, given the company's leading market position, operating leverage and underlying cash conversion. Target is reduced to $2.95 from $3.11.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $0.68
If CWY meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.05, suggesting upside of 32.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CWY as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Cleanaway Waste Management downgraded FY26 earnings (EBIT) guidance to $460–480m from $480–500m due to higher fuel costs and disruption to Middle East operations, Ord Minnett notes.

The impact is driven by increased fuel and logistics costs and weaker activity in the Contract Resources segment following exposure to oil and gas markets.

Management expects much of the cost pressure to be recovered over time via contract pass-through mechanisms, with most contracts resetting by end FY26 and some into 1H27.

The broker sees margin pressures unwinding by 2H27, with potential for a temporary margin uplift before normalising.

EPS forecasts are cut for FY26 and FY27 but lifted for FY28, while the rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate and the target trimmed to $2.70 from $2.80.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $0.43
If CWY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.05, suggesting upside of 32.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes over the past year three major neodymium Pr offtake deals have highlighted the increased efforts by Western countries to secure non-Chinese rare earth supply.

Improved prices combined with foreign exchange and marking to market adjustments have meant a strong long-term uplift in earnings for Iluka Resources.

The broker expects a "mixed" March quarter with weaker zircon and synthetic rutile offset by stronger rutile. Beyond production and sales, the broker suspects investors will focus on the potential headwinds from diesel and sulphuric acid supply constraints.

Outperform retained. Target rises to $8.30 from $6.25.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $7.58 Difference: $0.72
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.61, suggesting downside of -11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Overweight (1) -

Recent news confirms Morgan Stanley's view that supply security in rare earths is a priority for Western governments.

The broker retains an Overweight rating for Iluka Resources as value persists and the US housing cycle has improved, which could help unlock around $500m of excess inventory. 

Recent checks also point to the company lifting zircon prices in the second quarter. Target rises to $7.90 from $6.70. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $7.58 Difference: $0.32
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.61, suggesting downside of -11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KOA as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Morgans initiates research coverage on Koala Co with a Buy rating highlighting a founder-led, direct-to-consumer furniture retailer with a scalable, capital-light model. A $5.13 target is set.

Strong revenue growth is anticipated, driven by expansion in the US and UK, alongside continued penetration in Australia and Japan.

Margin expansion is seen as being supported by offshore mix, cost efficiencies and operating leverage.

Koala is attractively valued relative to peers, according to the broker, despite a superior growth profile, with upside potential from further international expansion not yet reflected in forecasts.

Target price is $5.13 Current Price is $3.76 Difference: $1.37
If KOA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LIC as Neutral (3) -

The key takeaway for Citi from Lifestyle Communities’ 3Q26 update was a slowdown in new home sales, with volumes declining quarter-on-quarter amid weaker consumer confidence and broader economic uncertainty.

Steady progress on the balance sheet is noted, with net debt reduced and unsold inventory declining, supporting improved financial positioning.

The earnings outlook remains uncertain, the broker cautions, particularly given pressure on margins.

Citi retains a Neutral rating. Target $5.10.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.50 Difference: $0.6
If LIC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.54, suggesting upside of 21.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LYC as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie notes over the past year three major neodymium Pr offtake deals have highlighted the increased efforts by Western countries to secure non-Chinese rare earth supply.

Improved prices combined with foreign exchange and marking to market adjustments have meant a strong long-term uplift in earnings for Lynas Rare Earths.

The broker expects a "solid" March quarter with higher average realised prices offset by lower production. Sales volumes in the third quarter, while missing consensus forecasts, are more than offset by stronger average realised prices, which translates to a revenue beat of 18%.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform given little upside post the recent rally. Target rises to $20.50 from $18.50.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $22.07 Difference: minus $1.57 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.89, suggesting downside of -13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LYC as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley downgrades Lynas Rare Earths to Equal-weight from Overweight, with a new target of $20.45 from $18.50.

Recent media reports confirm the broker's view that rare earth supply remains a key priority for Western governments. Even though price guarantees are considered to be "in place", the analyst views Lynas as fairly valued.

EPS forecasts are lifted by 26% for FY26 and 29% for FY27.

Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $20.45 Current Price is $22.07 Difference: minus $1.62 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.89, suggesting downside of -13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MEI as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes over the past year three major neodymium Pr offtake deals have highlighted the increased efforts by Western countries to secure non-Chinese rare earth supply.

Incorporating the second half updates, including FX adjustments and rare earth pricing realisation, has meant mixed earnings changes for Meteoric Resources. EPS estimates are decreased by -2-4% for FY26-27 while earnings estimates are up 24-30% for FY29-30.

Outperform rating and the target is lifted to $0.45 from $0.39.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.275
If MEI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 157% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.32, suggesting upside of 86.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

The focus at the upcoming banking results will be on credit quality and provisioning, given the deteriorating macro outlook, Macquarie asserts. Bank valuations have generally held up since February, with higher rates offsetting concerns about credit quality or lower volumes.

The broker envisages upside risk to margins for National Australia Bank from higher rates and favourable funding trends. While its credit quality should improve, the broker expects the deteriorating and uncertain outlook will mean the bank tops up provisions and bad debts could come in ahead of consensus estimates.

Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $44.00 from $45.50.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $44.69 Difference: minus $0.69 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $41.30, suggesting downside of -7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NAB as Sell (5) -

In light of the war in the Middle East, Ord Minnett has revisited the banking sector, which has underpinned an average EPS forecast downgrade of 0% to -3% in FY26 for the Big Four, with FY27/FY28 EPS estimates upgraded between 3-4%.

The analyst notes the market is now pricing in at least two more 25bp rate rises from the RBA, taking the cash rate to 4.6%, with the first as soon as May.

National Australia Bank remains Sell rated with an unchanged target of $37. EPS forecasts are tweaked lower in FY26 and lifted 4.1% for FY28.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $44.69 Difference: minus $7.69 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $41.30, suggesting downside of -7.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley has raised medium-term oil prices, which supports energy stocks, notably high-grade thermal coal.

The analyst notes supply remains "tight", and gas switching in both Japan and Korea provides further tailwinds and supports Whitehaven Coal ((WHC)), and the stock is the broker's number one pick.

Uranium is also expected to benefit and be supported, with Paladin Energy becoming the number two pick. The broker's commodity team expects a U308 deficit of -12.2mlbs for 2026, with the spot price rally flagged to continue.

The U308 spot price is forecast at US$90 in 2Q2026 and US$95 in 3Q, with higher contracting activity and supply headwinds.

EPS forecasts are lowered by -25% for FY26 and raised by 15% for FY27. Target price slips to $13.70 from $14.45.

Overweight rating retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $14.45 Current Price is $13.20 Difference: $1.25
If PDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.07, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PLS as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley downgrades PLS Group to Equal-weight from Overweight, with a new target of $5.25 from $5.30.

The broker has retained an overweight stance on lithium since December 2024 due to the acceleration in growth for Chinese EV exports and robust ESS (energy storage) demand.

Supply is flagged to likely be improving via Zimbabwe exports and a possible Chinese licensing regime, the analyst explains. PLS has reached the target price, implying a US$1,726/t price.

EPS forecasts are raised 53% for FY26 and 80% for FY27.

Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $5.40 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.20, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates POL as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett highlights Polymetals Resources reported a strong 3Q result, with silver production exceeding expectations on higher grades and costs below forecasts, driving a cash beat.

Near-term cash flow is viewed as being supported by an upcoming DSO (direct shipping ore) shipment and concentrate sales, with circa $38m expected to be added to the March quarter cash balances.

The Upper North Lode continues to outperform, underpinning expectations for strong production and free cash flow over the next 18 months.

The broker forecasts free cash flow around $190m which is anticipated to fund exploration, bond replacement and further development. 

Speculative Buy rating retained with a higher target price of $1.40 from $1.30.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0.555
If POL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 66% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QAN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes fuel costs have increased to -$3.1-3.3bn from guidance of -$2.5bn for Qantas Airways in FY26, thus the average crack spread is closer to US$65/bbl.

The main positive from the update, the broker found, was the yield improvement, with international revenue up 9.2% compared with guidance of 6.1% and domestic up 7.6% versus guidance of 6.1%.

Despite fuel surcharges the additional -$700m in fuel costs was offset by $200-250m in additional revenue. Macquarie points out the airline has flexibility to adapt to any lasting impact from the Persian Gulf conflict through accelerated fleet retirement.

Target is reduced to $11.00 from $11.30 and an Outperform rating is maintained.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $8.98 Difference: $2.02
If QAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.24, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QAN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley views Qantas Airways' 2H26 trading update as "better than feared", with fuel costs indicated at -$3.1bn-$3.3bn versus -$2.5bn previously, which have been somewhat offset by improved pricing and capacity resets.

Capacity is being redirected to Europe, where demand remains robust, and capex is now positioned, the analyst explains, at the lower end of the guidance range at -$4.1bn, with share buybacks paused.

The broker believes investors will look through near-term challenges, with higher fuel costs and supply disruption viewed as "cyclical" rather than "structural". The length of the energy challenge remains the key risk.

Profit before tax forecasts are lowered by -19% for FY26 and -10% for FY27. Target price is downgraded to $11 from $12.50.

Overweight retained. Industry view: In line.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $8.98 Difference: $2.02
If QAN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.24, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QAN as Buy (1) -

Qantas Airways faces sharply higher fuel costs, with 2H26 guidance lifted to -$3.1–3.3bn from -$2.5bn due to the Middle East conflict, Ord Minnett notes.

The analyst explains crude exposure is largely hedged at around 90%, but the six-fold increase in jet fuel spreads remains a key pressure, with supply also subject to uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz.

The airline is offsetting costs through higher airfares, domestic capacity cuts and redeployment to higher-yield European routes, supporting load factors and revenue per available seat kilometre.

Notably, the share buybacks have been paused amid uncertainty, although dividends of around $600m annually are still expected.

EPS forecasts are downgraded by -19.3% and -18.2% for FY27/FY28, respectively.

No change to Buy rating. Target cut to $10.50 from $12.80.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $8.98 Difference: $1.52
If QAN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.24, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating on South32 and raises the target to $5 from $4.70, noting supply disruptions, circa 4%, and higher energy prices, along with a lower Indonesian ramp on power availability, will support the aluminium price.

South32 continues to benefit, and EPS forecasts are raised by 16% for FY26 and 49% for FY27. South32 is considered tactically as the third key stock pick from number one position previously.

Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.67 Difference: $0.33
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.25, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGQ as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes over the past year three major neodymium Pr offtake deals have highlighted the increased efforts by Western countries to secure non-Chinese rare earth supply.

The broker points out commodity price and FX volatility may affect St. George Mining's earnings, asset values and funding while operating risks include geological uncertainty, drilling delays and cost overruns. Construction risks and negative market sentiment towards junior explorers may also affect the share price.

Outperform retained. Target rises to $0.26 from $0.20.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.075
If SGQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TLX as Overweight (1) -

Telix Pharmaceuticals announced the launch of a US$500m convertible bond offer, with Morgan Stanley noting net proceeds are flagged to be used to repurchase existing bonds due in 2029.

The issue is viewed positively as an "overhang" on the stock is being removed, with prior market concerns around the July 2027 existing put option on the current bonds.

Positively, the analyst remarks the 1Q26 result was robust, including a resubmitted new drug application for Pixclara and a collaboration with Regeneron.

Overweight rating with $24.60 target retained. Industry view: In-line. No change to earnings forecasts.

Target price is $24.60 Current Price is $15.45 Difference: $9.15
If TLX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.84, suggesting upside of 74.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TPG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley points to the ongoing sell-down of TPG Telecom share stakes from WH Soul Pattinson ((SOL)), with the latest sale taking the shareholding to below "substantial" at just over 5% from circa 12%-13% in February.

Re index implications, the analyst notes TPG's investable weight factor will lift to 0.39 from 0.23 and infers an index weight increase across the S&P/ASX200 and 300 indices of 4.8-4.9bps and the Small Ordinaries Index up to 44.8bps.

An estimated increase in free float equates to an expected total passive demand of $98.4m value to trade.

Underweight rated with target of  $3.50. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $4.27 Difference: minus $0.77 (current price is over target).
If TPG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.08, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates VGN as Neutral (3) -

In a quick take, Citi notes Virgin Australia has retained earnings (EBIT) guidance for 2H26 growth. Expectations for fuel are a net rise of "only" $30m-$40m due to hedging for Brent crude at 92% and refining margin at 71%.

Revenue per available seat kilometre (RASK) is expected to lift by 1.5% to 5% in 2H26, management flagged, versus 3%-4% previously.

The analyst estimates the net change in revenue will be small, with earnings changes likely to come in at the lower end of the fuel guidance.

Refining hedging is due to decline to 15% in 1H27, with Citi questioning to what extent fuel cost pressures will translate into FY27.

Target $3.60. Rating Neutral.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: $1.25
If VGN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.95, suggesting upside of 56.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WBC as Underperform (5) -

With an elevated valuation and downside risk to earnings Macquarie remains cautious about the outlook for Westpac. EPS estimates are reduced by -2%-4% for FY26-28 as cash rate forecasts are updated and recent yield curve changes are incorporated.

Macquarie retains an Underperform rating, with the key upside risk a successful execution of the Unite transformation and better-than-expected revenue performance as a result of higher interest rates going for longer, or an easing of lending/deposit competition.

The target is lowered to $32.00 from $33.50.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $41.48 Difference: minus $9.48 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.08, suggesting downside of -13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Underweight (5) -

Westpac announced a 1H26 trading update, which was not scheduled, with limited information disclosure, but comments suggesting earnings over the 1H will come in around -4% below Morgan Stanley's forecast.

Revenue is estimated to be circa -2% below forecast, with expenses estimated at 2% better, which infers a pre-provision profit miss, the analyst states, of around -1%.

Commentary suggested revenue for the 1H fell -1.5% h/h, with management pointing to an estimated -2bp impact from "the timing of rate rises" and -4bp from lower treasury and markets income.

Collective provisions are expected to be increased by around $150m, with an anticipated 1H26 loss rate of circa 10bp of loans.

Underweight rating and $34.40 target are maintained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $34.40 Current Price is $41.48 Difference: minus $7.08 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.08, suggesting downside of -13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WBC as Downgrade to Sell from Trim (5) -

After Westpac published a trading update Morgans notes implied revenue seems weaker while costs are lower and credit impairment charges higher than expected.

The bank's growth, profitability and return on equity have been weaker than its larger competitor CommBank, and if it can close the gap by achieving FY29 targets then forecast earnings upside could be significant, the broker adds.

Yet the share price has run ahead of delivery and Morgans downgrades to Sell from Trim. Target is reduced to $34.06 from $35.12.

Target price is $34.06 Current Price is $41.48 Difference: minus $7.42 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.08, suggesting downside of -13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WBC as Sell (5) -

In light of the war in the Middle East, Ord Minnett has revisited the banking sector, which has underpinned an average EPS forecast downgrade of 0% to -3% in FY26 for the Big Four, with FY27/FY28 EPS estimates upgraded between 3-4%.

The analyst notes the market is now pricing in at least two more 25bp rate rises from the RBA, taking the cash rate to 4.6%, with the first as soon as May.

Further, Westpac's trading update showed higher bad debt provisions and charges, although Ord Minnett views the increase as modest and potentially underestimating risks from the Middle East conflict and energy shock.

Lending growth and lower costs supported the result, with a stable NIM despite weaker treasury income. The broker questions Westpac’s internal credit risk modeling and instead relies on standardised measures.

EPS forecasts are upgraded across FY26–FY28, driven by stronger cost performance and limited credit deterioration. No change to Sell rating and target of $31.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $41.48 Difference: minus $10.48 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.08, suggesting downside of -13.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie expects first quarter production of 43.7mmboe from Woodside Energy with sales volumes of 46.6mmboe and revenue of US$3.09bn.

The main focus in the first quarter will be on its ability to capture the commodity cycle while the macro environment is providing a material boost to free cash flow at an important time, given a "heavy" capital expenditure phase and Woodside Energy being at the upper end of its gearing range.

Meaningful upside for the broker would require significant escalation in the war impact with the current share price implying US$82.65/bbl. Target is steady at $35.00. Neutral rating maintained.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $33.96 Difference: $1.04
If WDS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.89, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley has raised medium-term oil prices, which supports energy stocks, notably high-grade thermal coal. The analyst notes supply remains "tight", and gas switching in both Japan and Korea provides further tailwinds and supports Whitehaven Coal.

The broker forecasts Newcastle thermal coal at US$151/t versus consensus at US$117/t, and 2027 at US$138/t versus consensus at US$111/t.

Forecast coal production for Whitehaven is also above consensus, with earnings forecasts (EBITDA) upgraded by 33.2% for FY26 and 47.5% for FY27. EPS forecasts lift 261% and 65% for FY26/FY27, respectively.

The broker upgrades Whitehaven to Overweight from Equal-weight, and it becomes the "key pick", with a new target of $9.75 from $9.80.

Uranium is also expected to benefit and be supported, with Paladin Energy ((PDN)) becoming the number two pick.

Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $8.51 Difference: $1.24
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.34, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ZIP as Buy (1) -

In a viewpoint update, Citi notes March app data for Zip Co reveals a similar trend to February, with steady app downloads.

US app downloads remain constant, with monthly average use growth easing, while app sessions grew strongly, up 39% y/y in March, down slightly from 43% y/y growth in February, and the March quarter up 58% y/y.

The analyst views the strong session growth as indicative of management’s focus on boosting transactions from existing customers instead of new customer acquisitions.

The 3Q26 update is due on Friday, with the market expected to focus on US net bad debts. A Buy rating is retained, with Zip expected to announce improved US net transaction margin in 3Q despite rising bad debts as a percentage of total transaction value.

Target $2.60.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.83
If ZIP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.18, suggesting upside of 71.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources