Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates AAI as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett notes Alcoa’s March-quarter operating earnings missed expectations, largely due to inventory repositioning within the US and logistical issues, which weighed on shipments despite broadly in-line production.

The broker views these shortfalls as timing-related, with underlying demand remaining strong and supply constrained by smelter shutdowns in the Middle East, creating potential upside for Alcoa.

Higher diesel costs are expected to pressure the company's Western Australian bauxite operations, particularly in 2H 2026.

Ord Minnett makes minor upgrades to outer-year forecasts, maintains its $107 target, and upgrades to Accumulate from Hold on valuation grounds.

Target price is $107.00 Current Price is $96.49 Difference: $10.51
If AAI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AAI as Neutral (3) -

First quarter earnings from Alcoa were below expectations with UBS pointing out the miss was in aluminium and largely because of lower shipments amid repositioning of inventory. Free cash flow was also weaker than expected because of a miss on EBITDA  and the larger-than-expected WC build.

2026 guidance for production is largely unchanged despite the disruptions in the Middle East. The company continues to progress with negotiations for the monetisation of legacy sites with Massena East the most advanced. Neutral rating. Target rises to $105 from $95.

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $96.49 Difference: $8.51
If AAI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CKF as Buy (1) -

Ahead of Collins Foods' FY26 results, Morgans lowers net profit after tax forecasts due to deferred store openings and a change in the earnings assumptions for the acquired German stores, as well as a lower EU same store sales growth assumption.

Australia is considered as underpinning earnings growth while waiting to see how the German strategy evolves. The analyst downgrades underlying net profit after tax forecasts by -3.6% for FY26 and -4.2% for FY27, with Australia KFC store count cut to 296-309 for FY26-FY28.

Buy rating retained with a lower target of $12.50 from $12.70.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $8.58 Difference: $3.92
If CKF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.79, suggesting upside of 38.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COL as Buy (1) -

UBS observes the Middle East conflict is heightening inflation for Australian consumers, initially through fuel but set to extend across many products and services. The broker expects food inflation will increase steadily, led by fresh food in the fourth quarter and both fresh and dry grocery in FY27.

For supermarkets, the broker forecasts peak inflation in the second quarter of FY27, but below the Covid peak, with a full reversal not expected as cost-of-goods pressure remains elevated.

Earnings estimates are raised for Coles Group and the target is lifted to $25 from $24. Buy retained.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $22.54 Difference: $2.46
If COL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.35, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EDV as Neutral (3) -

UBS observes the Middle East conflict is heightening inflation for Australian consumers, initially through fuel but set to extend across many products and services. The broker expects food inflation will increase steadily, led by fresh food in the fourth quarter and both fresh and dry grocery in FY27.

Endeavour Group's retail has invested to re-establish its price position yet cyclical headwinds are likely to weigh on volumes and reduce EBIT margins, the broker adds. The hotels division remains resilient yet market share losses may continue.

UBS expects the shift of expenditure away from discretionary to staples will be uneven and liquor demand, being cyclical, will experience more challenging off-premises, while on-premises may benefit from socialising and thus moderate the downside.

Neutral retained. Target is reduced to $3.60 from $4.00.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.26 Difference: $0.34
If EDV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.61, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GPT as Buy (1) -

GPT Group's Wholesale Shopping Centre Fund (GWSF) has concluded the equity capital raising for growth initiatives, exceeding its initial target with $610m.

Citi believes this represents strong evidence for execution in the funds management business, leveraging the company's strength in retail in particular.

High investor interest in Australia's retail sector continues to mean limited supply additions in the new retail space. The broker also envisages improved operating efficiency and profitability across Australian real estate led by emerging AI adoption. Buy rating and $6 target.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.67 Difference: $1.33
If GPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.49, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IFT as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes consensus is under appreciating the structural growth in demand for cloud services, compute power, and AI models over the next one to five years.

The market is not fully discounting the potential demand for data centre capacity. For Australia, the analyst forecasts the data centre market to grow to around 3,700MW by 2030 from circa 1,500MW currently, an 18% CAGR, with a bull case at 27% CAGR and a bear case at 11% CAGR.

For Infratil, the installed capacity is around 38% of Australia's 1.5GW market at 573MW, and Morgan Stanley forecasts capacity to grow to around 1050MW by FY30, or around a 28% market share.

Australia is viewed as being able to power the data centre growth, going to 6% of total electricity generation in 2030 from 2% currently.

Target price trimmed to NZ$14.55 from NZ$15. Overweight maintained. Industry view is Attractive.

Current Price is $9.92. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $11.82, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LGI as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes the disruption to global energy markets has had only a limited impact on domestic electricity prices.

In its March quarter update, the broker marks to market electricity and sustainability credit forecasts and adjusts weighted average cost of capital (WACC) assumptions to reflect a higher risk-free rate.

Electricity prices rose in the quarter in both NSW and Queensland, up 6% and 3%, respectively, quarter-on-quarter, while Australian carbon credit unit (ACCU) prices remained firm.

The target for LGI falls to $4.40 from $4.45. Speculative Buy rating retained.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $0.75
If LGI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.63, suggesting upside of 26.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MAQ as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes consensus is under appreciating the structural growth in demand for cloud services, compute power, and AI models over the next one to five years.

The market is not fully discounting the potential demand for data centre capacity. For Australia, the analyst forecasts the data centre market to grow to around 3,700MW by 2030 from circa 1,500MW currently, an 18% CAGR, with a bull case at 27% CAGR and a bear case at 11% CAGR.

The analyst notes Macquarie Technology's installed capacity is around 1.5% of Australia's market and forecasts its capacity to grow to around 150MW by FY30, or a circa 6% market share.

Australia is viewed as being able to power the data centre growth, going to 6% of total electricity generation in 2030 from 2% currently.

Target price trimmed to $82 from $83. Overweight maintained. Industry view is Attractive. Morgan Stanley believes the stock can re-rate up to 20x from circa 15x FY27 EV/EBITDA if it can achieve an earnings (EBITDA) forecast CAGR of 15%-20%.

Target price is $82.00 Current Price is $67.66 Difference: $14.34
If MAQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MTS as Buy (1) -

UBS observes the Middle East conflict is heightening inflation for Australian consumers, initially through fuel but set to extend across many products and services. The broker expects food inflation will increase steadily, led by fresh food in the fourth quarter and both fresh and dry grocery in FY27.

For supermarkets, the broker forecasts peak inflation in the second quarter of FY27, but below the Covid peak, with a full reversal not expected as cost-of-goods pressure remains elevated.

UBS lowers estimates for Metcash despite higher food inflation amid lower hardware forecasts. Buy rating. Target is reduced to $3.50 from $4.00.

The broker expects the shift of expenditure away from discretionary to staples will be uneven and liquor demand, being cyclical, will experience more challenging off-premises, while on-premises may benefit from socialising and thus moderate the downside.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0.6
If MTS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.42, suggesting upside of 18.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWH as Outperform (1) -

Recent acquisition Fredon has performed well for NRW Holdings, having announced the award of $160m of electrical and mechanical contracts.

The contracts are across a range of end markets and include an electrical works package worth $110m with the Commonwealth for infrastructure in the Northern Territory.

Maccquarie currently forecasts FY27 revenue of $967m and EBITDA of $55m for Fredon. The outlook for other segments in the business remains strong with mining expected to experience growth in FY27 because of the recent Meandu contract and a step up at South Walker Creek. 

Target rises to $6.90 from $6.60 and an Outperform rating is maintained.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $6.10 Difference: $0.8
If NWH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.63, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NXT as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes consensus is underappreciating the structural growth in demand for cloud services, compute power, and AI models over the next one to five years.

The market is not fully discounting the potential demand for data centre capacity. For Australia, the analyst forecasts the data centre market to grow to around 3,700MW by 2030 from circa 1,500MW currently, an 18% CAGR, with a bull case at 27% CAGR and a bear case at 11% CAGR.

NextDC's 240MW installed capacity is circa 16% of Australia's market and is forecast to grow to around 600MW by FY30, retaining a 16% market share.

Australia is viewed as being able to power the data centre growth, going to 6% of total electricity generation in 2030 from 2% currently.

Target price is trimmed to $19 from $21. Overweight maintained. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $14.12 Difference: $4.88
If NXT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.39, suggesting upside of 44.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PDN as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Paladin Energy shares have performed well, Macquarie observes, now implying a uranium price of US$105.25/lb (US$11 2.75/lb if Michelin/Aus assets are excluded), and outperforming peers since March 17.

The broker believes investors should now consider the forward risks and whether they are being adequately rewarded for taking these on.

FY27 guidance is a key catalyst, likely in July, and the broker envisages downside risk to consensus forecasts.

Realised pricing continues to underperform peers and, now with a more onerous share price, the broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target edges up to $13.55 and $13.50.

Target price is $13.55 Current Price is $14.54 Difference: minus $0.99 (current price is over target).
If PDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.95, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDN as Overweight (1) -

Paladin Energy announced a FY26 production guidance upgrade to 4.5Mlb-4.8Mlb, with 3Q36 production of 1.29Mlb, coming in 13.1% above Morgan Stanley's forecast and 9.9% above consensus due to more robust feed grades and recoveries, the analyst points out.

Sales for the quarter of 1.03Mlb missed the broker's expectations by -9.7% and consensus by -15%, arising from timing differences on shipments and delivery phasing.

An average realised U308 price of US$68.3/lb was also a miss by -7.3% versus the analyst's forecasts and -10.4% below consensus due to timing and contract mix. Cost at US$40.3/lb was higher than anticipated by 2.8%, with capex lower than planned.

Target unchanged at $13.70. Overweight rating retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $13.70 Current Price is $14.54 Difference: minus $0.84 (current price is over target).
If PDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.95, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PME as Buy (1) -

Morgans retains a Buy rating on Pro Medicus while lowering the target to $210 from $275 post a reworking of the earnings forecast model to account for conservative revenue assumptions, which focus on "achievability over optimism".

The new earnings forecasts also ascribe a stronger AUD at around US72c versus US54c previously in FY25 and US67c for the earnings modeling.

The analyst emphasises the outlook for Pro Medicus remains positive and retains a long-term "conviction", with new contract announcements around $100m in the last six weeks.

Earnings (EBITDA) forecasts are lowered by -4% for FY26 and -13% for FY27. The stock is noted for never being cheap but currently trades at circa 70x FY27 PER against a five year average of around 120x.

Target price is $210.00 Current Price is $148.74 Difference: $61.26
If PME meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $224.17, suggesting upside of 54.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QPM as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes the disruption to global energy markets has had only a limited impact on domestic electricity prices.

In its March quarter update, the broker marks to market electricity and sustainability credit forecasts and adjusts weighted average cost of capital (WACC) assumptions to reflect a higher risk-free rate.

Electricity prices rose in the quarter in both NSW and Queensland, up 6% and 3%, respectively, quarter-on-quarter), while Australian carbon credit unit (ACCU) prices remained firm.

The analyst anticipates QPM Energy will  deliver stronger operating cash flow (OCF) this quarter, supported by higher electricity generation. The company is seen as well capitalised with around $32m in cash at the March quarter.

Unchanged Speculative Buy rating and 10c target.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.03 Difference: $0.07
If QPM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 233% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects a mixed outcome when South32 reports its third quarter production. Alumina is forecast to come in -2% below consensus expectations amid weaker production at Worsley, partially offset by in-line output from Alumar.

The broker also notes Sierra Gorda is tracking along with guidance at the copper equivalent level, although with differences in the commodity mix, including higher silver assumptions.

The main negative surprise is likely to be manganese, with Macquarie's forecasts around -10% below consensus because of weather impacts at Gemco.

All up, the broker reduces FY26 EPS estimates by -8%, largely because of lower copper/silver sales estimates. Target rises to $5.80 from $5.60. Outperform retained.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $4.53 Difference: $1.27
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.28, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SCG as Buy (1) -

Scentre Group has priced $750m in senior notes at a fixed coupon rate of 5.85%. The senior notes have been swapped with the floating-rate, carrying 1.2% margin over three-month BBSW.

Citi believes this shows the company's ability to access capital markets at competitive rates and should reduce the overall interest-rate margin profile. Buy rating and $4.40 target.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.53 Difference: $0.87
If SCG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.96, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SIG as Outperform (1) -

Global health and beauty categories continue to experience strong growth, increasingly supporting retailers with strong exposure to these categories, Macquarie observes.

The broker also believes the market is underestimating the durability of demand, and the earnings contribution from these categories.

Pharmacy chains such as Chemist Warehouse are considered best placed to benefit from both front-of-store and back-of-store offerings.

The broker envisages upside risk for comparable sales in FY27 for Sigma Healthcare and retains an Outperform rating. Target is $3.10.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $0.3
If SIG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TNE as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Bell Potter raises its target for TechnologyOne to $31 from $29 and downgrades to Hold from Buy, citing recent share price strength, which has left the valuation looking stretched relative to peers.

While acknowledging the company's defensive qualities, including strong positioning against AI disruption and a high-quality customer base, the broker sees better value elsewhere in the sector.

The broker's forecasts remain unchanged, with earnings and annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth broadly in line with company guidance.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $30.83 Difference: $0.17
If TNE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.49, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TPW as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi downgrades Temple & Webster to Neutral from Buy, taking into account slower growth in web traffic in March and a deterioration in active app users since February's trading update.

This combines with increasing macro risks facing sales and margins. FY26-28 EPS estimates are downgraded by -12%-19%.

The new FY26 EBITDA margin forecast is 3.5%. The target is lowered to $8.00 from $9.50.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $6.66 Difference: $1.34
If TPW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.40, suggesting upside of 115.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WHC as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie expects ROM coal production from Whitehaven Coal in the third quarter of around 9.4mt to be in line with expectations while saleable coal production is likely to miss by around -3%.

Higher prices are expected to offset higher costs, somewhat, and the duration of the Middle East conflict will be a key catalyst, the broker adds.

The company has announced its refinancing package: US$450m of senior secured notes with a 5.5 year tenor and another US$450m with an eight-year tenor, at coupon rates of 6.25% and 6.75%, respectively.

The proceeds will be used to pay down the acquisition facility. Macquarie was pleased witth the refinancing and upgrades the rating to Outperform from Neutral. Target rises to $9.50 from $9.25.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.00 Difference: $1.5
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.30, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WOW as Neutral (3) -

UBS observes the Middle East conflict is heightening inflation for Australian consumers, initially through fuel but set to extend across many products and services. The broker expects food inflation will increase steadily, led by fresh food in the fourth quarter and both fresh and dry grocery in FY27.

For supermarkets, the broker forecasts peak inflation in the second quarter of FY27, but below the Covid peak, with a full reversal not expected as cost-of-goods pressure remains elevated.

Earnings estimates are raised for Woolworths Group and the target is lifted to $37.25 from $35.35. Neutral retained.

Target price is $37.25 Current Price is $36.79 Difference: $0.46
If WOW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.53, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ZIP as Buy (1) -

Zip Co posted third quarter cash earnings of $65m, which strongly beat Citi's forecasts amid strong US TTV growth and better net transaction margins.

Strong US merchant additions were also noted, around 2300, with merchant growth accelerating to 18% year-on-year.

The main negatives were a slight drop in active US customers, probably reflecting seasonality, while Australasian TTV growth also slowed.

While Citi has some concerns regarding the outlook for the US consumer, the region is still expected to deliver strong growth. Buy rating and $2.60 target.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.27
If ZIP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting upside of 30.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ZIP as Outperform (1) -

Zip Co is delivering momentum at the top line, Macquarie observes, with group EBTDA up 41.5% third quarter.

The medium-term growth outlook is expected to be supported by what the broker describes as an "attractive unit economics model".

Pay-in-8 losses have peaked and are trending down for FY26, Macquarie points out, with the company expecting net bad debts written off in the fourth quarter to be under -1.75% of TTV.

Zip Co has upgraded FY26 cash earnings guidance to be no less than $260m. Macquarie increases FY26 and FY27 earnings estimates by 6.1% and 6.9%, respectively. Target rises to $3.40 from $3.35. Outperform retained.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $1.07
If ZIP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting upside of 30.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ZIP as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett highlights Zip Co’s March-quarter update as a positive, with improving US bad debt trends and strong transaction growth supporting margins and earnings momentum.

US bad debts came in below the broker's expectations and are expected to improve further, while transaction volumes remain robust, suggesting growth has not been compromised.

US total transaction value (TTV) growth remained above 40% versus the prior year, compared to 43% in the March quarter.

Cost discipline and operating leverage drove an upgrade to FY26 cash earnings (EBTDA) guidance, with margins also improving.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and raises its target to $4.00 from $3.90.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $1.67
If ZIP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting upside of 30.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ZIP as Buy (1) -

UBS found the third quarter update from Zip Co positive. In particular the net bad debts guidance in the US was better than expected, providing increased confidence in the company's ability to steer through the uncertain macro conditions.

The broker makes minimal changes to FY26-FY28 portfolio income and raises cash estimates by average of 2%-5% to reflect the potential for better-than-expected operating leverage.

In the US, UBS observes exposure to predominantly non-discretionary categories should provide a level of defensiveness. Buy rating. Target rises to $3.10 from $2.85.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.77
If ZIP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting upside of 30.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources