Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates 29M as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Copper production from 29Metals beat Macquarie's estimates although byproducts missed expectations. The company has downgraded 2026 guidance for zinc, gold and silver amid ongoing geotechnical issues at Xantho, with additional works planned to further reduce the risk of interruptions to production in the future.

Following the equity raising earlier in the year, the balance sheet is net cash $48m at the end of the quarter, yet after incorporating the reduction in guidance, the broker expects the business will continue to consume cash reserves throughout the rest of 2026.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target cut to $0.25 from $0.50.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.015
If 29M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.34, suggesting upside of 40.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AIS as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter labels Aeris Resources' March quarter update as below expectations but views the result as "fair" with robust cash generation the stand out.

Tritton produced 5.3kt copper at an AISC of $4.53/lb which was well below the analyst's forecast for production and above AISC estimate.

Higher rail costs and waste stripping were the culprit for the miss on AISC forecast while diesel cost impacts were noted as "minimal" but expected to be more pronounced in the current June quarter.

No change to Buy rating or 90c target. EPS forecasts are lowered by -18% for FY26 and -4% for FY27.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.5
If AIS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 125% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.77, suggesting upside of 96.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AIS as Speculative Buy (1) -

Aeris Resources delivered March quarter production that was slightly ahead of Ord Minnett's expectations amid lower costs.

Guidance has been maintained with Tritton tracking towards the lower end of the production range of 24-29,000t copper, not unexpected by the broker.

Tritton is expected to deliver a strong fourth quarter as Murrawombie stage 2 is set to combine with existing underground production to keep the mill at nameplate levels (1.8mtpa).

Speculative Buy rating retained and the target is lifted to $0.77 from $0.75.

Target price is $0.77 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.37
If AIS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 93% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.77, suggesting upside of 96.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ALC as Buy (1) -

Alcidion Group's 3Q26 update is viewed as "solid" by Bell Potter with contracted revenue for FY26 at $43.8m a rise of $0.7m at the end of the prior quarter.

Contract value sales came in at $11.7m and year-to-date at $35.5m, which the analyst flags should lift to over $70m over 4Q26 assuming a contract with UHSussex is signed in May.

Management reiterated guidance of revenue over $50m and earnings (EBITDA) of over $5m which is considered as very achievable.

Buy rating and 16c target are retained.

Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0.053
If ALC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALL as Outperform (1) -

Eilers & Krejcik Gaming estimates 1Q26 global social casino revenue of US$1.64bn, down -5.5% year-on-year and -2.7% quarter-on-quarter.

Macquarie notes Aristocrat's Product Madness generated US$265m in 1QCY26 social casino revenue, down -2.5% qoq but up 2.9% yoy.

Eilers is a specialist US-based research and consulting firm focused on the gaming, digital entertainment and online wagering sectors.

The broker notes market share was steady at 16.2%, while social slots share rose 0.2 percentage points to 21.8%, extending its lead over the nearest competitor.

Target $63. Outperform.

Target price is $63.00 Current Price is $46.89 Difference: $16.11
If ALL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $64.96, suggesting upside of 37.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates APX as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley notes leading ASX software incumbents are not only exposed to AI-driven disruption, but are also well positioned to harness AI to their advantage.

In many cases, these firms may be better placed than new entrants, the analysts suggest, given their access to proprietary data, deep vertical expertise, scale and established distribution networks.

The broker introduces its Moat Framework, comprising 10 factors used to assess which companies can sustain differentiated value in an AI-driven landscape. This considers those best positioned to adapt, and where competitive advantages are most at risk of erosion.

Morgan Stanley's central conclusion is that while AI is lowering the cost of software development, it does not render all software free, nor does it eliminate the need for third-party vendors.

From among the broker's coverage, key preferred exposures include REA Group, WiseTech Global, CAR Group, Xero and Pro Medicus.

Least preferred are Appen, Airtasker and Megaport.

Underweight retained for Appen. Target 52c. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: minus $1.03 (current price is over target).
If APX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 66% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ART as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley notes leading ASX software incumbents are not only exposed to AI-driven disruption, but are also well positioned to harness AI to their advantage.

In many cases, these firms may be better placed than new entrants, the analysts suggest, given their access to proprietary data, deep vertical expertise, scale and established distribution networks.

The broker introduces its Moat Framework, comprising 10 factors used to assess which companies can sustain differentiated value in an AI-driven landscape. This considers those best positioned to adapt, and where competitive advantages are most at risk of erosion.

Morgan Stanley's central conclusion is that while AI is lowering the cost of software development, it does not render all software free, nor does it eliminate the need for third-party vendors.

From among the broker's coverage, key preferred exposures include REA Group, WiseTech Global, CAR Group, Xero and Pro Medicus.

Least preferred are Appen, Airtasker and Megaport.

Underweight retained for Airtasker. Target 20c. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If ART meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASX as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

ASX may have lifted FY26 cost guidance several times yet a stronger revenue backdrop has more than offset this, UBS notes. The conflict in the Persian Gulf has extended heightened volatility into the second half and the broker envisages 4% upside risk to second half estimates for earnings.

The broker's modelling points to higher sustainable volumes, with the new equity post-trade revenue model from ASX driving upside even if equity turnover subsides.

The broker lifts EPS estimates by 6% over FY27-FY28 and raises the target to $65.20 from $58.85. As the stock is trading at a -16% discount to the three-year average PE the broker upgrades to Buy from Neutral.

Target price is $65.20 Current Price is $57.85 Difference: $7.35
If ASX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $58.35, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AX1 as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter notes Accent Group's 1H26 result beat expectations on downgraded guidance outlook offered by management in November last year.

First half like-for-like sales remained around 0.9% growth y/y with a flat trend observed by the analyst for the first seven weeks of 2H26.

Notably gross margins experienced pressure from two non-core business move to closure with some respite in revenue growth and cost of doing business.

In partnership with Fraser (UK), two stores of Sports Direct were opened in Victoria and NSW with a target of 50 stores in six years.

Management reiterated 2H26 earnings (EBIT) guidance. The investor day is on May 13. Target price is slashed by -40% to 68c from $1.10 with net profit after tax forecasts cut by -15% for FY26 and -13% for FY27. No change in Hold rating.

Target price is $0.68 Current Price is $0.62 Difference: $0.06
If AX1 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.96, suggesting upside of 55.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BET as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett found the third quarter result from Betmakers Technology ahead of expectations. Following "impressive optimisation of the cost base" the broker suggests a new era has begun with a focus on continued growth and profitability.

The June quarter should be rich with catalysts amid full contributions from LVDC and CrownBet, the go-live of Stake.com and other opportunities, Ord Minnett asserts. Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $0.25 from $0.24.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.07
If BET meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BGA as Outperform (1) -

Bega Cheese delivered a strategy briefing, detailing targets for FY31 and reaffirming FY26 guidance. Macquarie observes the cost base has been "right-sized", through site consolidation, supply chain efficiencies and this should support growth initiatives.

The company has also flagged its ambition to conduct at least one acquisition over the next five years. The broker points out a track record of M&A has been demonstrated over the last decade and delivered on-target returns.

The company continues to pursue growth opportunities across higher-margin products and markets, with persistent demand for protein and functional dairy underwriting the investments, Macquarie adds. Outperform rating and $6.60 target maintained.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $5.60 Difference: $1
If BGA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.71, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BGA as Neutral (3) -

At its investor day Bega Cheese announced a new five year roadmap, UBS notes with organic CAGR of 3%-4% and group earnings (EBITDA) CAGR of mid-to-high-single digits.

FY26 guidance was offered with revenue of $3.7bn-$3.8bn, 5% better than anticipated by the analyst and 1% above consensus with FY26 earnings (EBITDA) guidance in line with consensus at the mid point and slightly below the broker's expectations.

FY28 earnings (EBITDA) target stands at $260m-$265m above the prior target of over $250m albeit lower than the analyst and consensus at the midpoint.

Positively against a backdrop of higher costs, the update for FY26 was positive, UBS continues to see Bega as a turnaround story. EPS forecasts are trimmed lower for FY26/FY27. Target slips to $6.10 from $6.50. Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.60 Difference: $0.5
If BGA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.71, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BGL as Outperform (1) -

Bellevue Gold, having pre-reported March quarter production, has retained guidance of 130-150,000 ounces for FY26.

Macquarie notes fourth quarter mill grades of around 4.4g/t would be required to achieve the mid point of the range. Higher grades are also key to a reduction in AISC.

The broker reduces EPS estimates by -3% because of higher depreciation in the quarter. Outperform maintained along with a target of $2.10.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.60 Difference: $0.505
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.13, suggesting upside of 43.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BGL as Buy (1) -

Bellevue Gold announced a robust 3Q26 update which resulted in a 20% rally in the share price. UBS highlights.

Stronger grades boosted output by around 30% with mining moving forward into Deacon Main. AISC were largely in line with year-to-date coming in at $2,912/oz, slightly above guidance.

The deleveraging and dehedging continues to progress, the broker notes while higher grades from emerging higher grade areas is expected to assist with lower AISCs.

Target slips to $2.05 from $2.10 with no change in Buy rating. EPS forecasts decline by -46% for FY26 due to hedging costs and lift by 19% for FY27.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.60 Difference: $0.455
If BGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.13, suggesting upside of 43.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRE as Speculative Buy (1) -

Brazilian Rare Earths highlighted a busy March quarter including discovering extensions at Monte Alto and defining multiple prospects in a 10km x 17 km area at Sulista.

Ord Minnett found no new developments in the quarter but emphasises 2026 is rich with catalysts ahead of the Monte Alto scoping study that should clarify value.

Catalysts include the spin-out of Armagosa bauxite and start-up of a pilot at Camacari that will be supplied by a 2000tpa test pit at Monte Alto. Speculative Buy retained. Target is reduced to $6.25 from $7.50.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $5.13 Difference: $1.12
If BRE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CAR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes leading ASX software incumbents are not only exposed to AI-driven disruption, but are also well positioned to harness AI to their advantage.

In many cases, these firms may be better placed than new entrants, the analysts suggest, given their access to proprietary data, deep vertical expertise, scale and established distribution networks.

The broker introduces its Moat Framework, comprising 10 factors used to assess which companies can sustain differentiated value in an AI-driven landscape. This considers those best positioned to adapt, and where competitive advantages are most at risk of erosion.

Morgan Stanley's central conclusion is that while AI is lowering the cost of software development, it does not render all software free, nor does it eliminate the need for third-party vendors.

From among the broker's coverage, key preferred exposures include REA Group, WiseTech Global, CAR Group, Xero and Pro Medicus.

Least preferred are Appen, Airtasker and Megaport.

Overweight retained for CAR Group. Target $32. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $24.86 Difference: $7.14
If CAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.90, suggesting upside of 33.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CDA as Hold (3) -

Codan's FY26 trading update exceeds Bell Potter and consensus expectations with FY26 earnings (EBIT) of around $235m some 10%-11% above expectations, reflecting 76% growth y/y.

Net profit after tax guidance is also a beat by 11% above consensus with Minelab trading ahead of the robust 1H26 results due to favourable gold price and recent production releases the analyst explains.

EPS forecasts are raised by 11% for FY26 and 8% for FY27 with target price rising to $41.30 from $37.70. No change to Hold rating. The shares are viewed as trading at fair value.

Target price is $41.30 Current Price is $42.00 Difference: minus $0.7 (current price is over target).
If CDA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $41.45, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CDA as Neutral (3) -

Codan delivered a strong trading update resulting in an increase to expectations it will hit the top end of revenue guidance. The company now expects FY26 EBIT of around $235m and net profit around $170m, which Macquarie points out is a 10-11% increase on prior forecasts.

Geopolitical tensions continue to support the broker's belief that global defence spending and allocation to unmanned systems will accelerate, and the company is well-positioned to capitalise on this demand. Neutral rating maintained. Target rises to $42.00 from $36.30.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $42.00 Difference: $0
If CDA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.45, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CDA as Neutral (3) -

Codan provided a FY26 trading update, exceeding both consensus estimates for group earnings (EBIT) and net profit after tax, representing growth of around 61% y/y and 64% y/y, respectively, UBS highlights.

The upgrade realises a CAGR of 3-year EPS at 37% now with the analyst pointing to Communication revenue growth of 15%-20% above its historical range of 10%-15%.

Demand for DTC's (digital technology & communications) software defined radios are also being boosted by global geopolitical tensions as they go into "unmanned drone systems". Management now anticipates the Communications profit margin to be 30% versus consensus at 27.6%.

EPS forecasts are upgraded by 10% for FY26 and 9% for FY27 with a rise in target to $42.50 from $37. No change to Neutral rating.

Target price is $42.50 Current Price is $42.00 Difference: $0.5
If CDA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.45, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CKF as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes Yum! Brands' 1Q update suggests KFC Australia has remained resilient despite consumer headwinds, offering some reassurance for shareholders in Collins Foods. US-based Yum! owns and franchises major brands such as KFC.

The broker highlights potential upside to near-term same-store sales if momentum continues, though warns consensus FY27 forecasts may be optimistic given rising cost pressures, including labour and input costs.

It's thought growth initiatives such as the rollout of the Kwench beverage platform and menu innovation in Germany could support performance.

Neutral rating. Target $10.45.

Target price is $10.45 Current Price is $8.21 Difference: $2.24
If CKF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.51, suggesting upside of 40.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CMM as Outperform (1) -

Capricorn Metals, having pre-reported March quarter production, has retained guidance and signalled it is tracking at the upper end of the range of 115-125,000 ounces. AISC is expected to be at the top of the range of $1530-1630/oz, driven by elevated royalties from higher gold prices rather than operating issues.

Macquarie highlights the underground drilling at Lexington, which has confirmed a large, high-grade extension to Mount Gibson. The results have materially improved confidence in what the broker describes as a significant, long-life underground development.

Outperform rating and $16 target unchanged.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $11.80 Difference: $4.2
If CMM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.70, suggesting upside of 64.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CYL as Buy (1) -

Catalyst Metals' 3Q26 update showed lower than expected throughput, some -9% below UBS forecast with limited use of stockpiles.

The analyst points to "softer" ore from Trident which is waiting to be blended with underground feed so plant utilisation was mid-70% and this is likely to persist into the June quarter. A major shutdown is planned then.

Management had already upgraded the mid point of guidance 18% higher. The analyst adds a further circa $200/oz to the life-of-mine cost on top of the revised AISC guidance of $425/oz which results in EPS downgrades of -13% for FY26 and -6% for FY27.

Target slips to $9.75 from $10.50. No change to Buy rating. Catalyst is viewed as a lower capex growth story with short term execution risks.

Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $5.65 Difference: $4.1
If CYL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 73% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.20, suggesting upside of 155.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates FMG as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Bell Potter downgrades Fortescue to Sell from Hold with a lower target price of $18.15 from $20.30.

March quarter iron ore shipments slipped -4% q/q but boosted the result to record shipments for the nine months to March end of 148.7mt which aligns with guidance and expectations.

Management's FY26 guidance was lowered to 9mt-10mt from 10mt-12mt for Iron Bridge due to wet weather. Total shipment guidance remains unchanged. Realised prices remained high at 89% of the Platts 61% CFR index and Iron Bridge price received was stable.

Fortescue also approved a US$60m investment to develop Pilbara Green energy project for 200MW with demand from industrial users and data centres mentioned. The broker thinks the project is high risk with possible "asymmetrical outcome".

EPS forecasts are tweaked lower noting the core iron ore business continues to perform well.

Target price is $18.15 Current Price is $20.22 Difference: minus $2.07 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.88, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GEM as Neutral (3) -

UBS outlined a litany of macro headwinds for G8 Education cost pressures, low birth rates increased supply and a Victorian childcare abuse incident with the broker stressing some of the factors could be worse than originally highlighted.

The UBS economist expects a further two rate hikes and believes the RBA wants households to lower spending which is expected to weigh on G8's occupancy rates.

Spot occupancy is down around -7% y/y and management announced the suspension of circa 40 underperforming centres. A cost cutting program is also being started.

EPS forecasts are cut by -42% for FY26 and -47% for FY27. Target downgraded to 19c from 38c previously. Neutral rated.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.025
If GEM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GNP as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter upgrades the target for GenusPlus Group to $10.50 from $9.50 while retaining a Buy rating indicating a material upgrade in earnings from recent acquisitions.

The analyst points to possible revenue growth of 27.9% for FY27 versus the broker's current estimate of 17.7% growth and consensus at 14.8% growth. However project delays may defer the upgrade until FY28.

The company's tender pipeline at the end of 2025 stood at $2.6bn with current tenders for three large scale transmission projects in hand for the Hunter Transmission, The Gippsland Wind Transmission and the New England REZ Transmission project.

Preferred contractors are expected to be announced in 2026 with the broker highlighting the size of a contract award around $350m or more.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.10 Difference: $1.4
If GNP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights its US contractor survey has confirmed the strong market position of James Hardie Industries and Timbertech Citi (Azek). Current conditions are constrained although forward expectations are improving.

The survey continues to support the broker's view that these are leaders in structurally-advantaged categories. While volume improvement from the housing recovery appears delayed, Morgan Stanley believes there is scope for synergies with Azek to exceed market expectations.

The next catalyst is the company's FY26 result in mid/late May. Overweight rating and $44 target maintained. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $30.59 Difference: $13.41
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.16, suggesting upside of 41.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LNW as Outperform (1) -

Eilers & Krejcik Gaming estimates 1Q26 global social casino revenue of US$1.64bn, down -5.5% year-on-year and -2.7% quarter-on-quarter.

Macquarie notes Light & Wonder's SciPlay generated US$186m in 1QCY26 social casino revenue, down -3.5% qoq and -6.8% yoy.

Eilers is a specialist US-based research and consulting firm focused on the gaming, digital entertainment and online wagering sectors.

The broker notes market share declined modestly to 11.3%, though remained stable in social slots. Jackpot Party, representing around 40% of revenue, stabilised sequentially but remains down -15% yoy, continuing to weigh on earnings, the analyst explains.

Target $205. Outperform.

Target price is $205.00 Current Price is $114.61 Difference: $90.39
If LNW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $195.50, suggesting upside of 70.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

Mineral Resources today issued its quarterly activities report. At first glance, Macquarie notes a strong performance with 'beats' across lithium shipments and mining services, alongside an in-line iron ore performance.

Spod sales of 115kt beat consensus by 3% with an 11% beat at Mt Marion partly offset by a -4% miss at Wodgina as one shipment slipped into Q4, the analyst explains. Lithium guidance was upgraded at both Wodgina and Mt Marion.

Onslow (iron ore) costs are considered a key positive, coming in -11% below expectations and tracking toward the lower end of FY26 guidance. FY26 guidance was upgraded by 2% at Onslow.

Lower net debt and capex are seen as supportive.

Target $75. Outperform.

Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $61.88 Difference: $13.12
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $70.00, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MP1 as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes leading ASX software incumbents are not only exposed to AI-driven disruption, but are also well positioned to harness AI to their advantage.

In many cases, these firms may be better placed than new entrants, the analysts suggest, given their access to proprietary data, deep vertical expertise, scale and established distribution networks.

The broker introduces its Moat Framework, comprising 10 factors used to assess which companies can sustain differentiated value in an AI-driven landscape. This considers those best positioned to adapt, and where competitive advantages are most at risk of erosion.

Morgan Stanley's central conclusion is that while AI is lowering the cost of software development, it does not render all software free, nor does it eliminate the need for third-party vendors.

From among the broker's coverage, key preferred exposures include REA Group, WiseTech Global, CAR Group, Xero and Pro Medicus.

Least preferred are Appen, Airtasker and Megaport.

Equal-weight retained for Megaport. Target $9.00. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $9.06 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If MP1 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.09, suggesting upside of 64.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NIC as Outperform (1) -

Nickel Industries posted first quarter results that were largely in line with forecasts, as Macquarie observes a strong start to the year with group-adjusted EBITDA of $136m.

Management has flagged potential upside from a higher mining quota, with an application to be submitted mid year that could further reduce the constraints on operations.

Although diesel price volatility remains a headwind the company has signalled that only around 65% of the mining fleet is diesel-powered and exposure is set to fall once the limonite slurry pipeline is commissioned for ENC. Target rises to $1.20 from $1.10 and an Outperform rating is maintained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.06 Difference: $0.14
If NIC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.35, suggesting upside of 31.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORG as Hold (3) -

March quarter LNG production and sales volumes from Origin Energy matched Ord Minnett's expectations although this was overshadowed by an earnings downgrade for the UK retail energy business, Octopus Energy.

Octopus, which is 23% owned by Origin, is now expected to deliver the company a loss of -$70m to a gain of $30m, which compares with prior guidance for EBITDA of $0-150m.

Despite this, the company has indicated the formal separation of Octopus and Kraken Technologies remains on track for mid 2026. The company has made no change to guidance for its 28%-owned Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) business.

Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating with an $11 target.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $12.03 Difference: minus $1.03 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.08, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PME as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes leading ASX software incumbents are not only exposed to AI-driven disruption, but are also well positioned to harness AI to their advantage.

In many cases, these firms may be better placed than new entrants, the analysts suggest, given their access to proprietary data, deep vertical expertise, scale and established distribution networks.

The broker introduces its Moat Framework, comprising 10 factors used to assess which companies can sustain differentiated value in an AI-driven landscape. This considers those best positioned to adapt, and where competitive advantages are most at risk of erosion.

Morgan Stanley's central conclusion is that while AI is lowering the cost of software development, it does not render all software free, nor does it eliminate the need for third-party vendors.

From among the broker's coverage, key preferred exposures include REA Group, WiseTech Global, CAR Group, Xero and Pro Medicus.

Least preferred are Appen, Airtasker and Megaport.

Overweight retained for Pro Medicus. Target $200. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $200.00 Current Price is $134.84 Difference: $65.16
If PME meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $224.17, suggesting upside of 66.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates REA as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes leading ASX software incumbents are not only exposed to AI-driven disruption, but are also well positioned to harness AI to their advantage.

In many cases, these firms may be better placed than new entrants, the analysts suggest, given their access to proprietary data, deep vertical expertise, scale and established distribution networks.

The broker introduces its Moat Framework, comprising 10 factors used to assess which companies can sustain differentiated value in an AI-driven landscape. This considers those best positioned to adapt, and where competitive advantages are most at risk of erosion.

Morgan Stanley's central conclusion is that while AI is lowering the cost of software development, it does not render all software free, nor does it eliminate the need for third-party vendors.

From among the broker's coverage, key preferred exposures include REA Group, WiseTech Global, CAR Group, Xero and Pro Medicus.

Least preferred are Appen, Airtasker and Megaport.

Overweight retained for REA Group. Target $230. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $230.00 Current Price is $167.27 Difference: $62.73
If REA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $213.43, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates REG as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes the Commonwealth has released its independent review of residential aged care accommodation pricing and announced a $3bn funding package to be included in the May budget.

The broker finds the most material recommendations include an updated accommodation supplement framework and deregulation of the DAP (daily accommodation payment) rate.

Accommodation funding is becoming the primary driver of returns in the medium term, the broker adds, driven by RAD (refundable accommodation deposit) retention and higher DAP income.

Buy rating retained. Target rises to $8.60 from $8.40.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $6.49 Difference: $2.11
If REG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMS as Outperform (1) -

Ramelius Resources, having pre-reported production, has flagged an increase in AISC of 2% to $1975/oz in the third quarter. Despite the challenging quarter, Macquarie notes FY26 guidance of 185-205,000 ounces is maintained, driven by a return to normal mill utilisation and operating hours.

Changes to Mount Magnet capital expenditure appear related to accounting treatments and activity sequencing, and the expansion remains on track. The broker increases the target to $4.70 from $4.60 and retains an Outperform rating.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $3.59 Difference: $1.11
If RMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.27, suggesting upside of 55.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RMS as Buy (1) -

With pre-released "soft" production output affected by an expected mill shutdown, UBS points to March quarter AISC which were higher than forecast by some 7% for Ramelius Resources, largely attributed to capex growth.

Management has also deferred capex of circa -$100m into FY27 from FY26. Cashflow is expected to improve with a June quarter stamp duty payment of $131m allowing for possible additional share buybacks of $140m.

The broker trims FY26 production forecast to 194koz and an AISC of $2,045/oz. Buy rating retained with an unchanged $5 target price.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $3.59 Difference: $1.41
If RMS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.27, suggesting upside of 55.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SCG as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

UBS upgrades Scentre Group to Neutral from Sell with a higher target of $3.80 from $3.50.

The analyst is more "constructive" on the stock due to the 41.8bn sub note offer which is expected to assist with more robust earnings growth for FY27 at 4% now from 2% previously.

A full refinance of the sub notes has the potential to underpin around 4.5% earnings accretion with investors still able to tender their holdings until April 30, NY time. The refinancing offsets higher interest costs with a circa $6bn hedge expiring in FY27.

Based on historical take ups the broker estimates around 60% as a base case with equates to around 3% annualised EPS accretion.

EPS forecasts are raised by 2.3% for FY26 and 4% for FY27.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $0.15
If SCG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.95, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SEA as Buy (1) -

Sea Forest posted a strong March quarter, Ord Minnett observes, and subsequently has two new contracts to supplement SeaFeed to a further 13,000 head of cattle.

While the contract gains are modest in scale they have significant strategic value when combined, and should bring the cumulative total contracted head of cattle to 131,000.

Ord Minnett considers the business well-placed to benefit from tailwinds in the sector including rising demand for yield-enhancing inputs as producers seek to offset sharp increases in fuel and feed costs.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and $3.15 target.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.28 Difference: $0.87
If SEA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGP as Neutral (3) -

Citi observes Stockland's 3Q26 residential sales up 43% y/y within the context of a slowing growth rate compared to recent quarters.

Project launches boosted land lease sales reaching a record, up 162% y/y. A further three data centres are being assessed for approval under NSW which is viewed positively.

Noting the robust quarter, Citi flags the potential rising impact of higher interest rates and probable changes to housing taxes at the May Budget.

A further headwind is rising construction costs as fuel prices increase with margins likely to come under pressure in FY27.

Neutral retained. Target $4.30.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $4.09 Difference: $0.21
If SGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.72, suggesting upside of 16.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SMR as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Morgans upgrades Stanmore Resources to Buy from Hold due to share price weakness. Target price is lowered to $2.80 from $2.95 post 1Q26 update with a beat on saleable production at 3.18Mt against 3Mt forecast for the broker and consensus.

Notably, FOB cash cost guidance rose to US$98/t-US$103/t from US$93/t-US$97/t due to higher fuel costs prompting a rise in the analyst's forecast FOB costs to around US$99/t on the guidance update.

Average realised price of US$152/t was up 12% on 4Q2025 and 9% y/y with higher met coal pricing as wet weather impacted on supply.

Morgans believes met coal prices can move well above current expectations but Stanmore's existing production profile is starting to fall which means its earnings growth profile depends on higher prices, not volume growth.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.54
If SMR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SMR as Buy (1) -

Stanmore Resources has kept production guidance for 2026 unchanged at 12.8-13.4mt, with Ord Minnett noting a "steady start" to the year.

Cost guidance has been increased by 6% to reflect macroeconomic pressures although persistent price strength in metallurgical coal is expected to absorb some of the cost pressures.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating as the stock offers the most exposure to strengthening metallurgical coal prices but trades at a significant discount to net asset value. Target is reduced to $3.35 from $3.50.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $1.09
If SMR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUL as Buy (1) -

Citi notes Sarah Hunter the former MD of Officeworks ((WES)) has been appointed the CFO of Super Retail and brings forth over 15-years of retail leadership experience.

Jenny Child has become the Rebel MD and supervised the turnaround of Oroton Group where she was CEO. The changes are not considered as unusual given the tenure of retiring David Burns and Gary Williams at Super Retail.

Ben McConnell has become MD of Supercheap Auto after serving in the interim since November.

Target $15. Buy rated.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $11.98 Difference: $3.02
If SUL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.63, suggesting upside of 23.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SUN as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Suncorp Group has announced a five-year aggregate reinsurance deal, starting June 30 offering $800m in yearly protection and $2.4bn in total coverage over the period.

Morgans notes the deal has claims losses of $1.85bn slightly above the FY27 natural hazard forecast of $1.8bn. The deal is expected to lower future earnings volatility and the market is anticipated to view it positively.

Management's FY26 guidance is largely unchanged although the insurance trading result (ITR) is at the upper end of the 10%-12% range which is considered as more positive than the prior indication of "the top half".

Hazard claims are currently coming in below the broker's forecast. EPS forecasts are lifted slightly for FY26 and FY27.

Target price rises to $17.79 from $17 and the stock is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate due to the current share price.

Target price is $17.79 Current Price is $16.98 Difference: $0.81
If SUN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.12, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Citi highlights a strong operational update from Woodside Energy, with high reliability across core assets and major projects progressing to schedule, including Scarborough at around 97% completion.

Production is expected to soften in the June quarter due to planned maintenance, weather disruptions and natural decline.

Realised pricing was weaker for the quarter, reflecting high LNG hub exposure and lagged pricing dynamics, the broker explains.

Citi notes uncertainty around a -US$41m derivative loss at the Perdaman urea project, which, while non-cash, impacts earnings and dividends.

Target $33.25. Neutral.

Target price is $33.25 Current Price is $33.05 Difference: $0.2
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.47, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie highlights a strong March quarter from Woodside Energy, with production beating expectations by 3%, driven by continued outperformance at the Sangomar oil field.

Sangomar has remained on plateau at around 99kb/d, though declines are expected from next quarter. Major growth projects remain on schedule, the analyst observes, with Scarborough LNG shipments expected to drive a step-up in revenue from 4Q.

Despite solid operational performance, Macquarie views the stock as overvalued at current levels, maintaining a Neutral rating, and lowers its target to $33 from $35.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $33.05 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.47, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WDS as Sell (5) -

Higher realised oil prices and better sales volumes boosted Woodside Energy's 1Q2026 results and beat both Ord Minnett and consensus expectations, and offset lower than forecast LNG pricing.

Guidance for 2026 output of 172mmbbl-176mmbbl and capex of US$4bn-US$4.5bn were retained.

The analyst emphasises the only problem is the energy company's hedging position with 30mmboe of 2026 oil production hedged at US$74.23/bbl and 10mmboe of 2027 output hedged at US$74.23/bbl in 2027.

Estimated losses of -US$500m have been included in the broker's earnings forecasts from hedging for 2026.

EPS estimates are lowered by -13.1% for 2026 and 2027 tweaked higher. Sell rating unchanged with $24.75 target price.

Target price is $24.75 Current Price is $33.05 Difference: minus $8.3 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.47, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Woodside Energy delivered March quarter production that was ahead of expectations with sales revenue supported by higher volumes from additional LNG cargoes from the North West Shelf.

UBS notes this meant the LNG hub price exposure rose to 51% over the quarter yet the company still expects exposure to average 30% over the next three years.

The broker points out upside risk to 2026 production guidance is best assessed from mid 2026 after Woodside completes its planned five-week shutdown at Pluto in May.

Benefits are expected to flow from the announcement of a structured review of the business and UBS expects most of the measures will come from the Australian operations. Neutral rating and $30.40 target unchanged.

Target price is $30.40 Current Price is $33.05 Difference: minus $2.65 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.47, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WGX as Outperform (1) -

Westgold Resources produced 93,100 ounces in the March quarter, beating Macquarie's estimates. Guidance has been reiterated for 345-385,000 ounces with year-to-date production representing 79% at the mid point.

AISC of $3338/oz was higher than expected, although the company indicated diesel prices had no material impact on the cost performance.

Macquarie decreases estimates for FY26 EPS by -25% because of the higher costs while the target is lowered to $9.00 from $9.50. Outperform rating maintained.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $5.90 Difference: $3.1
If WGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.65, suggesting upside of 59.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WGX as Buy (1) -

Westgold Resources posted a March quarter result that was slightly softer than Ord Minnett expected, given a large working capital unwind. Gold sold was materially lower than what was produced.

A proactive short-term decision has been made to hold onto bullion, which the broker expects will unwind in the current quarter, keeping the company on track to hit the top end of its production guidance of 345-350,000 ounces.

Buy rating with an unchanged target of $8.45.

Target price is $8.45 Current Price is $5.90 Difference: $2.55
If WGX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.65, suggesting upside of 59.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WGX as Buy (1) -

UBS observes the Peak Hill and Chalice divestments remain incremental catalysts for Westgold Resources to further bolster its strong balance sheet, and updates are expected in the June quarter.

The broker can envisage unlocking potential value of $70-100m should these divestments comply with those completed in the last six months.

Production volumes in the March quarter were slightly below expectations, with sold gold lagging significantly as management takes a proactive approach to the timing of sales based on gold price expectations.

All these catalysts keep the broker positive on the stock and a Buy rating is maintained with the target lowered to $8.50 from $9.50.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $5.90 Difference: $2.6
If WGX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.65, suggesting upside of 59.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WOW as Neutral (3) -

Citi highlights a strong 3Q26 sales result from Woolworths Group today, with Australian Food like-for-like growth of 5.3%, beating the consensus expectation for 4.3%, supported by pantry stocking in March.

However, at first glance, the broker also notes Australian Food earnings (EBIT) guidance has been lowered, with FY26 growth now expected at mid to high single digits but no longer at the upper end.

Higher fuel costs and price reinvestment are weighing on this segment, the analyst explains.

Commentary notes transaction growth and basket size both improved, while online sales accelerated and New Zealand and Big W also showed modest gains.

Neutral rating. Target $35.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $37.29 Difference: minus $2.29 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $36.53, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WTC as Buy (1) -

Citi observes a slight impact from the Middle East war on March freight forwarder results. Kuehne & Nagel's (K&N) sea freight volumes fell -2% y/y in the March quarter and aligns with the December rate of decline of -2% y/y.

K&N cited an impact from the war of -1.5% on the March quarter while air freight volumes were flat, down from 7% growth y/y in the prior quarter from lower yielding eCommerce volumes.

WiseTech Global's customer DSV reported a miss on air and sea freight volumes versus expectations, the broker notes, with some "moderate" financial impact from the Middle East.

DSV management pointed to the ongoing integration of DB Schenker and migration of the majority of air and sea freight volumes into Cargowise.

Citi's base case is that DSV will move to Tango as the primary TMS (transportation management system) with Cargowise used for Customs. WiseTech's Capital Markets Day is May 12.

Buy. Target $65.35.

Target price is $65.35 Current Price is $41.31 Difference: $24.04
If WTC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $76.74, suggesting upside of 79.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WTC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes leading ASX software incumbents are not only exposed to AI-driven disruption, but are also well positioned to harness AI to their advantage.

In many cases, these firms may be better placed than new entrants, the analysts suggest, given their access to proprietary data, deep vertical expertise, scale and established distribution networks.

The broker introduces its Moat Framework, comprising 10 factors used to assess which companies can sustain differentiated value in an AI-driven landscape. This considers those best positioned to adapt, and where competitive advantages are most at risk of erosion.

Morgan Stanley's central conclusion is that while AI is lowering the cost of software development, it does not render all software free, nor does it eliminate the need for third-party vendors.

From among the broker's coverage, key preferred exposures include REA Group, WiseTech Global, CAR Group, Xero and Pro Medicus.

Least preferred are Appen, Airtasker and Megaport.

Overweight retained for WiseTech Global. Target $70. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $70.00 Current Price is $41.31 Difference: $28.69
If WTC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $76.74, suggesting upside of 79.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates XRO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes leading ASX software incumbents are not only exposed to AI-driven disruption, but are also well positioned to harness AI to their advantage.

In many cases, these firms may be better placed than new entrants, the analysts suggest, given their access to proprietary data, deep vertical expertise, scale and established distribution networks.

The broker introduces its Moat Framework, comprising 10 factors used to assess which companies can sustain differentiated value in an AI-driven landscape. This considers those best positioned to adapt, and where competitive advantages are most at risk of erosion.

Morgan Stanley's central conclusion is that while AI is lowering the cost of software development, it does not render all software free, nor does it eliminate the need for third-party vendors.

From among the broker's coverage, key preferred exposures include REA Group, WiseTech Global, CAR Group, Xero and Pro Medicus.

Least preferred are Appen, Airtasker and Megaport.

Overweight retained for Xero. Target $130. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $130.00 Current Price is $79.30 Difference: $50.7
If XRO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $144.08, suggesting upside of 80.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources