Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates A11 as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie sees lithium carbonate prices around RMB 200k/t, circa US$29,500/t LCE, as a point where fear of missing out investor may wane.

Expectations of potential Zimbabwe supply disruptions have boosted the price, although the broker cautions early signs of downstream margin compression are emerging across EV and energy storage markets.

Channel checks suggest prices above RMB 200k/t begin pressuring ESS project economics in China and Southeast Asia, while higher levels of RMB 250-300k/t could become disruptive across US and European markets.

IGO ((IGO)) remains the broker's preferred lithium exposure ahead of PLS Group ((PLS)). PLS and Elevra ((ELV)) both screen with higher earnings sensitivity to lithium price movements.

Liontown Resources ((LTR)) implies the highest embedded spodumene price assumption among covered names.

Atlantic Lithium is Neutral rated with a 32c target.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0
If A11 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AIA as Neutral (3) -

Citi considers yesterday's market update by Air New Zealand ((AIZ)) as a near-term headwind for Auckland International Airport. Rising fuel costs are driving expected FY26 losses and softer booking momentum.

The airline also flagged potential capacity reductions if fuel prices remain elevated, which could weigh on passenger volumes.

Given Air New Zealand accounts for more than 55% of pre-covid capacity at the airport, the analysts see risk to near-term earnings.

Neutral retained. Target NZ$8.80.

Current Price is $6.85. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIZ as Underperform (5) -

Air New Zealand has guided to an FY26 profit before tax loss of -NZ$340m to -NZ$390m after a NZ$240m increase in fuel costs versus pre-crisis assumptions.

Macquarie notes management delivered around NZ$70m in mitigations during 2H26 through revenue initiatives and capacity reductions, while identifying an initial NZ$100m in annualised cost savings from FY27 as part of a broader strategy review.

The analyst points to weaker booking momentum following the fuel crisis, particularly across outbound markets.

The balance sheet remains supported by NZ$1.3bn in liquidity alongside plans for a US$400m revolving credit facility and NZ$4bn in unencumbered aircraft assets.

EPS forecasts are cut by -36% for FY26 and -46% for FY27, while the broker retains an Underperform rating and lowers the target price to NZ$0.38 from NZ$0.42.

Current Price is $0.34. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALX as Neutral (3) -

Management at Atlas Arteria has flagged a right of first offer to Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan for its 67% stake in Chicago Skyway at the 2022 purchase price, above the broker's valuation.

A sale at book value by Atlas could crystallise value and support dividends, implying to the analysts around $5.10 per share for the remaining business, broadly in line with IFM Investors' higher offer.

Citi highlights pre-bid share price distortions from negative events like French taxes and the Middle-East conflict, and maintains a Neutral rating with a $4.80 target.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.77 Difference: $0.03
If ALX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.67, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

Neutral-rated ANZ Bank (target $33.50) is now Macquarie's preferred exposure among the major banks, given lower perceived credit quality risks from its institutional focus.

ANZ's valuation discount to peers is also expected to offer relative support if the Bank sector de-rates.

With downside risk to volumes and credit quality, and competition remaining intense, the broker maintains its Underweight view on the sector.

Macquarie has a Neutral rating for National Australia Bank ((NAB)) and Underperform for both Westpac ((WBC)) and CommBank ((CBA)).

Target price is $33.50 Current Price is $34.84 Difference: minus $1.34 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.18, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AUB as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes strong free cash flow (FCF) generation supports AUB Group's capacity to both fund acquisitions and reduce leverage, even after accounting for dividend payments.

The group converted 105% of profit (NPATA) to FCF in FY25 and 90% in 2025, the analyst highlights, with cash generation skewed to the second half in line with earnings seasonality.

Pro forma leverage stood at 2.41x at December 2025 and, assuming no further acquisitions, is expected to decline to around 2.14x by June 2026.

Unchanged $35.81 target and Outperform rating.

Target price is $35.81 Current Price is $24.03 Difference: $11.78
If AUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.30, suggesting upside of 33.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AX1 as Neutral (3) -

Citi's key takeaway from Accent Group's investor day is management believes the market is overly bearish on medium-term profitability and is pursuing a significant optimisation program to expand margins.

The broker sees potential for a re-rating from the current undemanding valuation if the company successfully delivers cost savings, executes the Sports Direct rollout and/or reduces debt.

Citi retains a Neutral rating with a 60c target price, up from 57c.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.04
If AX1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.67, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AX1 as Buy (1) -

The Accent Group investor briefing has outlined a strategic plan to 2030, targeting $1.9bn in sales, a 9% EBIT margin and 950 stores. Morgans calculates sales growth of 5% per annum and targeted cost savings of $40m.

The company plans to close loss-making Glue/OZSale business, with 102 stores under review and a decision to be made as leases come up for renewal.

Morgans continues to take a conservative approach to the stock given the challenges and consecutive downgrades over the last year or so. No changes are made to FY26 forecasts and a Buy rating and $0.75 target are retained.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.19
If AX1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.67, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BAP as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi lowers its target for Bapcor to 40c from 76c and downgrades to Sell from Neutral following a trading update.

A summary of the broker's initial views follows.

At first glance, Citi suggests a further deterioration in investor sentiment towards Bapcor is likely following an earnings downgrade today (yet again), raising concerns over the credibility of management's turnaround strategy.

FY26 underlying earnings guidance has been reduced to $140m-$150m from $150m-$160m, reflecting weaker trading conditions, cost pressures and currency headwinds.

Specifically, management attribute the downgrade to the impact of the Middle East conflict and higher interest rates, with weaker trading conditions since March 2026, rising fuel, freight and supplier costs in April.

A softer NZD/AUD exchange rate also weighed on translated earnings from the New Zealand business, the broker highlights.

Risks around balance sheet metrics are flagged, with slower-than-expected inventory reduction and potential covenant pressure despite temporary relief from lenders.

Citi remains cautious, noting increased competition and ongoing execution challenges.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If BAP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.48, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BAP as Neutral (3) -

Bapcor announced a downgrade, cutting FY26 earnings (EBITDA) guidance by around -5% at the midpoint due to challenging trading conditions arising from higher interest rates and the Middle East war, Macquarie articulates.

Positively, the analyst highlights like-for-like sales grew between February and April including trade up 0.7%, networks up 3.8%, retail up 1.6% and NZ up 0.7%.

The trend deteriorated over the course of April with weaker conditions now expected to remain over FY26 as lower consumer and business confidence weigh on consumer sentiment. Higher costs and the depreciation of the NZ dollar are also headwinds.

Management improved the debt position, with pro forma net debt around $168m from circa $195m at the end of December.

EPS forecasts are cut by -39% for FY26 and -38% for FY27. Target price moves down to 44c from 61c. No change to Neutral rating.

Target price is $0.44 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.02
If BAP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.48, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BAP as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett opines Bapcor delivered a trading update that revealed its turnaround seems to be gaining traction as all business segments returned to sales growth across February-April.

That said, Ord Minnett notes cost headwinds are emerging amid higher interest rates and weak consumer sentiment, while higher fuel costs are adversely affecting motor vehicle servicing demand.

Earnings guidance has been downgraded with FY26 underlying EBITDA reduced to $144-150m, below the broker's prior forecast of $152m.

Given the lack of earnings stability, Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating with the target lowered to $0.55 from $0.75.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.13
If BAP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.48, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BB1 as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans initiates coverage of digital healthcare company Blinklab with a Speculative Buy rating and $1.76 target.

The business has developed a smart phone-based diagnostic platform to aid the early diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder using neurometric testing analysed by machine learning.

A $17.5m capital raising has recently been completed which will fund two clinical programs through to approval. Morgans notes the pilot study showed impressive results and a share price catalyst is potentially there through the upcoming news flow.

Target price is $1.76 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: $1.07
If BB1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 155% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights rising data centre demand as a structural tailwind for BHP Group, particularly through copper exposure, with tightening supply supporting a constructive outlook.

While this provides strong beta exposure, driven by the broader market, the broker also sees alpha (returns above the market) opportunities across iron ore, copper growth and potential asset crystallisation.

BHP is viewed as a superior long-term growth story versus Rio Tinto ((RIO)), supported by stronger copper exposure and expansion projects.

Morgan Stanley lifts its target price by $10.00 to $67.50 and retains an Overweight rating. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $67.50 Current Price is $62.06 Difference: $5.44
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $56.07, suggesting downside of -7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BRG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie details how AI has the capacity to support and accelerate Breville Group's expansion into new markets, including Japan, India and Brazil, which are seen as new direct distribution market opportunities.

AI technology is viewed as capable of helping with licensing, regulation and safety requirements.

Extrapolating from De'Longhi's performance, the analyst estimates Japan sales could reach around 9% of Breville's FY26 revenue. But, Japan's unique 100-volt power system and split 50 Hz/60 Hz frequencies would require the group to re-engineer its power systems.

India presents a potentially larger long-term opportunity after recently overtaking Japan as the world's fourth-largest economy and operates on a standard 230-240V, 50 Hz power system, reducing product adaptation complexity.

Brazil remains another strategic market, and management has maintained a relationship with Tramontina Brazil for more than a decade.

Outperform rated with a $37.10 target.

Target price is $37.10 Current Price is $28.35 Difference: $8.75
If BRG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.52, suggesting upside of 28.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CAT as Buy (1) -

Catapult Sports will report its FY26 result on May 20 and Bell Potter expects the results to be consistent with the trading update in March, perhaps slightly better.

The main risk, to the upside, is management EBITDA where guidance is for growth of around 50%, which implies a figure of US$22.9m.

The broker makes no changes to forecasts, noting ACV growth is to remain strong with lower churn and there is continued improvement in cost margins towards target, amid higher free cash flow as the business expands. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $4.50 from $4.75.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: $1.4
If CAT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.17, suggesting upside of 76.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COL as Accumulate (2) -

The ACCC was successful in its Federal Court case against Coles Group over price discounting practices. Between February 2022 and May 2023 the court found the company did not maintain established prices for a sufficient period before promotional discounts were applied.

Coles can either appeal the decision or accept a financial penalty. Importantly, Ord Minnett notes the decision provides regulatory clarity that has been long sought on pricing rules ahead of promotions, which is likely to mean both major supermarkets adjust their promotion mechanics and supplier arrangements.

The outcome is not expected to have a material impact on profitability. Accumulate rating and $23 target.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $20.66 Difference: $2.34
If COL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.81, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes CSL shares have fallen -18% since the latest guidance downgrade and now trade on around 11x FY27 core EPS, reflecting ongoing investor disappointment and a search for new catalysts.

Key areas of scepticism, the analyst suggests, include the recovery outlook for China albumin and limited visibility on earnings growth beyond low- to mid-single digits. Uncertainty around executing meaningful change ahead of a new CEO is considered another factor.

Commentary notes additional concerns including rising plasma supply from Grifols in the US and challenges in rebuilding a sufficiently robust pipeline.

Neutral. Target $110.

Target price is $110.00 Current Price is $97.26 Difference: $12.74
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $134.94, suggesting upside of 37.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EDV as Lighten (4) -

Endeavour Group's earnings have been under pressure from rising costs and softer end-market conditions amid limited evidence that the hotels portfolio strategy has delivered meaningful returns, Ord Minnett contends.

With the strategy day looming on May 27, the broker suggests the strategic aim for improved outcomes for shareholders, amid greater management focus and capital discipline after the business was spun out of Woolworths Group ((WOW)), has not been realised.

Investors are expected to be focused on whether the company can reposition as a more defensive business with a central issue being whether the softness in liquor consumption currently is cyclical or structural.

Regulatory scrutiny is also in focus following the AUSTRAC enforcement investigation into Tabcorp Holdings ((TAH)), given Endeavour's exposure to gaming operations within its hotels business.

Ord Minnett retains a $2.90 target and Lighten rating.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $3.18 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If EDV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.46, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ELV as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie sees lithium carbonate prices around RMB 200k/t, circa US$29,500/t LCE, as a point where fear of missing out investor may wane.

Expectations of potential Zimbabwe supply disruptions have boosted the price, although the broker cautions early signs of downstream margin compression are emerging across EV and energy storage markets.

Channel checks suggest prices above RMB 200k/t begin pressuring ESS project economics in China and Southeast Asia, while higher levels of RMB 250-300k/t could become disruptive across US and European markets.

IGO ((IGO)) remains the broker's preferred lithium exposure ahead of PLS Group ((PLS)). PLS and Elevra both screen with higher earnings sensitivity to lithium price movements.

Liontown Resources ((LTR)) implies the highest embedded spodumene price assumption among covered names.

Neutral rated with a $13.50 target.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $12.07 Difference: $1.43
If ELV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FLT as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reminds investors Flight Centre Travel remains exposed to geopolitical disruption. The Leisure segment has been impacted by cancellations, refunds and weaker demand, resulting in an estimated -$10m profit (PBT) hit in April.

Corporate travel has remained resilient, supported by new client wins and productivity gains, though risks of softening sentiment are emerging, the analyst cautions.

Downside risk is expected if disruption persists, particularly for Leisure, and the broker trims its earnings forecasts and valuation accordingly.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating, citing attractive valuation and leverage to a recovery. Target falls to $15.54 from $17.95.

Target price is $15.54 Current Price is $10.46 Difference: $5.08
If FLT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.23, suggesting upside of 48.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FPH as Neutral (3) -

Citi expects Fisher & Paykel Healthcare to deliver a conservative FY27 outlook when it reports FY26 results (March year end) on 25 May.

The broker forecasts profit toward the midpoint of guidance, slightly below consensus, with some margin pressure from higher transport and raw material costs partly offset by pricing.

Investor expectations are already cautious, the analyst highlights, with consensus assuming solid sales and earnings growth.

Despite defensive demand characteristics, Citi views valuation as full at around 38x FY27 earnings and retains a Neutral rating with a NZ$38.50 target, down from NZ$42.60.

Current Price is $27.90. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GL1 as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie sees lithium carbonate prices around RMB 200k/t, circa US$29,500/t LCE, as a point where fear of missing out investor may wane.

Expectations of potential Zimbabwe supply disruptions have boosted the price, although the broker cautions early signs of downstream margin compression are emerging across EV and energy storage markets.

Channel checks suggest prices above RMB 200k/t begin pressuring ESS project economics in China and Southeast Asia, while higher levels of RMB 250-300k/t could become disruptive across US and European markets.

IGO ((IGO)) remains the broker's preferred lithium exposure ahead of PLS Group ((PLS)). PLS and Elevra ((ELV)) both screen with higher earnings sensitivity to lithium price movements.

Liontown Resources ((LTR)) implies the highest embedded spodumene price assumption among covered names.

Global Lithium Resources is Outperform rated with an 80c target.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.275
If GL1 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GNC as Hold (3) -

GrainCorp delivered a first half net profit that was below Bell Potter's expectations, at $32.7m. FY26 guidance for EBITDA of $200-240m and net profit of $20-50m is unchanged.

At this point, the outlook has shifted towards an El Niño bias in the second half, which warrants consideration about potential yield, the broker warns, while global production forecasts for FY26-FY27 remain elevated, suggesting ongoing tight trading margins in grain.

Hold retained. Target is reduced to $5.90 from $6.80.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $5.38 Difference: $0.52
If GNC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.17, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GNC as Neutral (3) -

GrainCorp reiterated FY26 guidance for underlying earnings (EBITDA) of $200-240m and underlying net profit after tax of $20-50m despite challenging seasonal conditions across northern NSW and Queensland, Macquarie notes.

Interim earnings (EBITDA) was broadly in line with the analyst's expectations excluding derivative mark-to-market impacts, while stronger offshore grain export and crush margins are expected to support FY27 earnings.

Management expects elevated working capital to unwind during 2H26, supporting a recovery in core net cash, although weaker operating cash flow and the absence of a special dividend were viewed as reflecting a more uncertain outlook.

Seasonal conditions and rainfall over coming months remain critical for FY27 production prospects, with the broker forecasting winter harvest volumes to fall -18% y/y.

EPS forecasts lift by 4% for FY26 and up to 3% across FY27-FY30. Neutral rating retained with target price lowered to $5.90 from $6.75.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $5.38 Difference: $0.52
If GNC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.17, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GNC as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

GrainCorp delivered a first half result that was largely in line, albeit weak, with underlying EBITDA down -32% to $136.7m. The company has reiterated FY26 earnings guidance.

Morgans notes the outlook for the FY27 winter crop is cautious, given cost pressures and the dry outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology, and downgrades its crop forecasts, noting a significantly larger-than-expected cash outflow was reported while the era of special dividends appears to be over.

The broker points out the strategic assets are worth materially more than the current share price but as earnings appear set to decline again in FY27 there is a lack of catalysts so the rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate. Target is reduced to $5.62 from $6.76.

Target price is $5.62 Current Price is $5.38 Difference: $0.24
If GNC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.17, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GNC as Accumulate (2) -

GrainCorp produced a first half result that was ahead of Ord Minnett's estimates, while noting the erosion of the core cash position, ongoing farm input disruptions from the Middle East conflict and a poor outlook for the FY27 crop causes some concerns among investors.

The broker is concerned about the next crop, given the weather forecast, yet is less worried about the cash position which is expected to return to FY25 levels by the end of the year, and there is currently sufficient fuel and fertiliser available for the FY27 crop.

Estimates are unchanged as is the Accumulate rating and $7.25 target.

Target price is $7.25 Current Price is $5.38 Difference: $1.87
If GNC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.17, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie sees lithium carbonate prices around RMB 200k/t, circa US$29,500/t LCE, as a point where fear of missing out investor may wane.

Expectations of potential Zimbabwe supply disruptions have boosted the price, although the broker cautions early signs of downstream margin compression are emerging across EV and energy storage markets.

Channel checks suggest prices above RMB 200k/t begin pressuring ESS project economics in China and Southeast Asia, while higher levels of RMB 250-300k/t could become disruptive across US and European markets.

IGO remains the broker's preferred lithium exposure ahead of PLS Group ((PLS)). PLS and Elevra ((ELV)) both screen with higher earnings sensitivity to lithium price movements.

Liontown Resources ((LTR)) implies the highest embedded spodumene price assumption among covered names.

Outperform rated with a $9.50 target.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.76 Difference: $0.74
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.88, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IMU as Speculative Buy (1) -

Imugene has an "outstanding alternative" in Azer-celf for the treatment of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, with Bell Potter receiving significant reassurance from discussions with a leading haematological oncologist.

The CAR-T naive patient group continues to enrol and early signs of efficacy are considered highly encouraging. Bell Potter retains Speculative Buy rating and $0.25 target.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.157
If IMU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 169% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JHX as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects James Hardie Industries to announce 4Q2026 earnings (EBITDA) of around US$366m, slightly above guidance mid-point expectations.

Investor focus is likely to be centred on commercial integration progress and synergy delivery, highlighting integration of the sales force in March as strategically important to unlocking medium-term earnings potential.

Around US$28m in commercial synergies is already incorporated into the analyst's FY27 forecasts.

Market conditions remain mixed across new housing and repair and remodel activity, although the broker believes the market has likely bottomed and is now focused on the timing of recovery.

Softer conditions in southern US states remain, although comparative siding performance versus peers has improved as product mix shifts, while decking competition and DR&A operating performance also remain areas of focus.

Outperform rating unchanged with a $41.10 target.

Current Price is $27.03. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $38.75, suggesting upside of 43.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTR as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie sees lithium carbonate prices around RMB200k/t, circa US$29,500/t LCE, as a point where fear of missing out investor may wane.

Expectations of potential Zimbabwe supply disruptions have boosted the price, although the broker cautions early signs of downstream margin compression are emerging across EV and energy storage markets.

Channel checks suggest prices above RMB200k/t begin pressuring ESS project economics in China and Southeast Asia, while higher levels of RMB250-300k/t could become disruptive across US and European markets.

IGO ((IGO)) remains the broker's preferred lithium exposure ahead of PLS Group ((PLS)). PLS and Elevra ((ELV)) both screen with higher earnings sensitivity to lithium price movements.

Liontown Resources implies the highest embedded spodumene price assumption among covered names. Neutral. Target $2.20.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.50 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MI6 as Speculative Buy (1) -

Minerals 260 has executed binding agreements with Geko Explore to acquire a joint venture interest across some highly prospective ground contiguous to its Bullabulling gold project.

The tenements cover areas prospective for strike extensions to the Kraken deposit in the south end of the resource and the Dicksons deposit at the north end.

Terms include consideration of $7m, comprising $3.5m in cash and 4.5m MI6 shares. The company will be the manager of the joint venture and sole fund expenditure to a decision to mine whereupon each participant will contribute in proportion to their interest.

Speculative Buy rating and $1.35 target.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $0.91 Difference: $0.44
If MI6 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.24, suggesting upside of 47.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MP1 as Outperform (1) -

Megaport secured AI-related contracts worth $182.9m and $65m annual recurring revenue.

Macquarie notes the contracts will be debt funded at an estimated 6.75% cost and generate forecast internal rates of returns above 20% over the initial three-year contract term.

Management highlighted the contracts are backed by take-or-pay structures with high-quality counterparties, supporting predictable returns and reducing execution risk as capex only follows signed agreements.

The broker views compute and storage as strategically important products given their lower churn rates, higher gross margins and ability to improve customer lifetime value across the broader network business.

Exposure to growing AI inference demand remains strong through its enterprise customer base and edge network, while using both NVIDIA and AMD chips to mitigate supply constraints the broker highlights.

EPS forecasts rise by 8% for FY27, 30% for FY28 and 18% for FY29. Target price lifts to $26.30 from $23.30. Outperform retained.

Target price is $26.30 Current Price is $12.58 Difference: $13.72
If MP1 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 109% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.08, suggesting upside of 24.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MP1 as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley views Megaport's recent contract wins via Latitude.sh as a strong validation of its expansion into AI infrastructure beyond core connectivity.

Latitude.sh is a subsidiary/platform acquired by Megaport focused on on-demand cloud infrastructure, particularly for AI and high-performance computing workloads.

The three contracts materially increase revenue visibility and support upgrades to the broker's medium-term forecasts. Combined they are worth $254m in total contract value (TCV) and $91m in annual recurring revenue (ARR).

While the deals de-risk demand and the Latitude.sh strategy, the focus now shifts to execution, capital intensity and returns, given the more competitive nature of compute infrastructure, the analysts explain.

Morgan Stanley lifts its earnings forecasts and target price to $12.50 from $9.00, retaining an Equal-weight rating. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $12.58 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If MP1 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.08, suggesting upside of 24.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MP1 as Accumulate (2) -

Megaport has major new contracts for its Latitude business, with a total value of US$183m and representing around US$65m in annual recurring revenue. Two of the contracts, accounting for around 90% of the total value, have initial terms of 36 months and the third has a 24-month term.

Ord Minnett notes this materially improves the medium-term earnings outlook and underpins upgrades to forecasts beyond FY26.

The company has indicated a two-year EBITDA payback on capital expenditure of US$101m for the new contracts. Despite increased capital requirements the broker notes the business is well funded. EBITDA forecasts for FY27-FY28 have been lifted by 29%-34%.

Ord Minnett retains an Accumulate rating and raises the target to $14.50 from $12.00.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $12.58 Difference: $1.92
If MP1 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.08, suggesting upside of 24.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OML as No Rating (-1) -

Macquarie observes oOh!media announced stronger-than-expected trading momentum at its AGM, with 2Q2026 revenue growth guided for 7% for the Australian business and 4% for oOh!media overall, despite a softer advertising backdrop.

Management also outlined a strategy update targeting $12m in annual pre-tax cash savings from 2027, including exiting the in-retailer media business and reducing headcount by -9% by mid-2026.

Gross margins are expected to soften in 1H26, although lower underlying costs and reduced capex guidance should provide some offset.

The company confirmed multiple takeover approaches, including bids at $1.40/share from Pacific Equity Partners and $1.45/share from I Squared Capital, while noting discussions with other parties remain ongoing.

EPS forecasts are tweaked by -1% for FY26 and +7%/+6% for FY27-FY28. Macquarie is on research restriction.

Current Price is $1.32. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.53, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates OML as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes oOh!media has received two indicative takeover offers from private equity at $1.40-$1.45 per share, which the board has rejected as undervaluing the business.

The broker views the bids as opportunistic, given recent cyclical weakness and company-specific issues that have weighed on the share price.

While acknowledging the near-term challenges, the analysts see oOh!media as a structurally sound growth business and expect the shares could exceed $1.45 on a standalone basis over the medium term.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating and $1.55 target. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: $0.23
If OML meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.53, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie sees lithium carbonate prices around RMB200k/t, circa US$29,500/t LCE, as a point where fear of missing out investor may wane.

Expectations of potential Zimbabwe supply disruptions have boosted the price, although the broker cautions early signs of downstream margin compression are emerging across EV and energy storage markets.

Channel checks suggest prices above RMB200k/t begin pressuring ESS project economics in China and Southeast Asia, while higher levels of RMB250–300k/t could become disruptive across US and European markets.

IGO ((IGO)) remains the broker's preferred lithium exposure ahead of PLS Group. PLS and Elevra ((ELV)) both screen with higher earnings sensitivity to lithium price movements.

Liontown Resources ((LTR)) implies the highest embedded spodumene price assumption among covered names.

PLS Group is Outperform rated with a $6.20 target.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $6.38 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.59, suggesting downside of -6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PMT as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie sees lithium carbonate prices around RMB 200k/t, circa US$29,500/t LCE, as a point where fear of missing out investor may wane.

Expectations of potential Zimbabwe supply disruptions have boosted the price, although the broker cautions early signs of downstream margin compression are emerging across EV and energy storage markets.

Channel checks suggest prices above RMB 200k/t begin pressuring ESS project economics in China and Southeast Asia, while higher levels of RMB 250-300k/t could become disruptive across US and European markets.

IGO ((IGO)) remains the broker's preferred lithium exposure ahead of PLS Group ((PLS)). PLS and Elevra ((ELV)) both screen with higher earnings sensitivity to lithium price movements.

Liontown Resources ((LTR)) implies the highest embedded spodumene price assumption among covered names.

PMET Resources is Outperform rated with a $0.65 target.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If PMT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REA as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes Australian residential listing volumes rose 19% year-on-year in April 2026, although volumes remain down -1% year-to-date.

Sydney and Melbourne outperformed, with listings up 25% and 20%, respectively.

REA Group recently reiterated FY26 volume guidance for a -1%-3% decline, though Citi flags softening trends into May and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Budget.

The broker remains cautious on REA, citing downside risk to FY27 revenue drivers such as buy yield and volumes, with cost-out initiatives potentially running ahead of underlying growth.

Additional concerns include increasing competition from Domain and the potential for structural disruption from AI over time.

Positively, it's noted management has moved quickly to incorporate value-added AI products.

Neutral. Target $190.

Target price is $190.00 Current Price is $161.24 Difference: $28.76
If REA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $213.55, suggesting upside of 31.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates WA1 as Speculative Buy (1) -

WA1 Resources has updated its mineral resource at the Luni niobium project in Western Australia. Indicated resources have grown 27% to 93mt at 1.32% niobium oxide and now represent 57% of contained niobium compared with 46% previously.

Bell Potter points out, importantly, this update delivers the conversion of inferred material which means the business has crossed a material threshold in terms of resource maturity, providing a platform for declaring an ore reserve and completing a prefeasibility study.

Bell Potter retains a Speculative Buy rating and a target of $24.80.

Target price is $24.80 Current Price is $16.17 Difference: $8.63
If WA1 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WOR as Buy (1) -

Citi suggests Worley's target of delivering double-digit earnings (EBITA) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to FY30 is ambitious relative to consensus, with execution key to achieving this outcome.

While management at yesterday's investor day highlighted tailwinds across the core business, adjacent growth areas and potential AI benefits, investor sentiment remains cautious, the analyst highlights.

Commentary notes concerns revolve around cost-out sustainability, project delays and management credibility.

Citi believes improving industry dynamics should support margins and contract terms, and continues to view the stock as undervalued.

Buy rating. Target is lowered to $13.60 from $14.00.

Target price is $13.60 Current Price is $12.25 Difference: $1.35
If WOR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.94, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WOR as Outperform (1) -

Worley reaffirmed FY26 guidance at its investor day and announced a new share buyback of up to $300m, equivalent to around 5% of issued capital, Macquarie explains.

Management reiterated its target for double-digit underlying earnings (EBITA) growth between FY26 and FY30, ahead of the analyst's 7% forecast, supported by growth in energy security, power, data centres, nuclear, water and other Complex Critical Infrastructure markets.

The broker highlighted the shift towards full-cycle and major project delivery as reducing AI-related disruption risk compared with traditional consulting models, while noting Americas exposure should benefit from rising investment in LNG and chemicals.

Management also flagged margin durability rather than expansion given ongoing mix shift towards procurement and construction activities, with cost savings expected to offset margin pressure. Earnings forecasts and the target price remain unchanged at $13.70.

Outperform rated.

Target price is $13.70 Current Price is $12.25 Difference: $1.45
If WOR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.94, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WOR as Hold (3) -

Worley has outlined its ambition to deliver EBITA growth in double digits through to FY30, pursuing a full delivery model as it looks to capture more of the value chain by performing construction work.

Morgans observes, going forward, there should be some support from Middle East repair activity and a broader uplift in upstream hydrocarbon expenditure amid renewed energy security concerns.

Yet risks continue and the broker suspects growth in underlying EBITDA in FY26 is unlikely. No changes are made to forecasts except to incorporate the buyback which raises FY27 EPS estimates by 3% and FY28 by 5%. Hold rating. Target edges up to $11.80 from $11.60.

Target price is $11.80 Current Price is $12.25 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If WOR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.94, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WOR as Accumulate (2) -

Worley outlined its strategy at an investor briefing, aiming for double digit growth in EBITA through to 2030.

Guidance has been reiterated, and for the first time a defined timeframe has been announced for management's ambition to return to double-digit growth, Ord Minnett observes.

Commentary suggests the latter underscores management's confidence in project execution and capital deployment. The order backlog stood at $16.9bn at the end of March, representing a 10% increase since December.

A $300m on-market share buyback was announced, which the broker notes underpins higher earnings per share forecasts in FY27 and FY28.

Accumulate rating and $13.10 target maintained.

Target price is $13.10 Current Price is $12.25 Difference: $0.85
If WOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.94, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates XRO as Buy (1) -

In a follow-up note on yesterday's FY26 result, Citi suggests Xero's guidance appears conservative given strong underlying product momentum.

The broker believes recent product execution, including the Ultra launch and Xeroforce, alongside improving US growth, is being overshadowed by Anthropic's "Claude for Small Business" announcement.

A summary of the broker's initial research follows.

In an early assessment, Citi notes Xero today delivered a modest earnings 'beat' in FY26, though higher R&D capitalisation and a miss at the profit level tempered the result.

Overall, the result is considered strong when taking into account US momentum, subscribers coming in ahead, Melio beating expectations, as well as positive FY27 guidance.

The broker explains guidance for FY27 is marginally above consensus, supported by continued growth, although increased investment and normalising R&D capitalisation are expected.

Subscriber growth came in slightly ahead of the analysts' expectation, with strong momentum in the US and UK, while annualised monthly recurring revenue (AMRR) trends point to upside risk for FY27 revenue forecasts.

A $550m buyback was announced to offset share-based compensation dilution.

Separately, Xero's recent system outage appears to have been short-lived, Citi assures, though some users continued to report access issues.

The company has offered customer credits, likely limited to Australian subscribers given the impact on tax deadlines, though the exact quantum is unclear, the analyst notes.

Citi expects the financial impact to be modest, estimating a worst-case revenue impact of around -NZ$25m, with the actual effect likely lower.

Xero is Buy rated with a $112.65 target.

Target price is $112.65 Current Price is $73.68 Difference: $38.97
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $137.74, suggesting upside of 72.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates XRO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie emphasises Xero achieved accelerating US growth, with organic subscriber net additions rising to around 43k over the last six months versus 30k in the prior corresponding period for FY26 results.

Ex-Melio US revenue grew around 30% y/y and Melio also reported pro-forma growth of 58%, supported by higher payment volumes and take-rate expansion.

The analyst sees significant operating leverage potential as revenue scales across a largely fixed cost base.

Xero's proprietary customer data and ecosystem integration is viewed as more strategically valuable than the underlying AI models themselves, positioning the company favourably for AI-led distribution and monetisation opportunities.

Management's FY27 guidance was viewed as conservative, with a clear pathway towards achieving the Rule of 40 by FY28 supported by US investment, Melio scaling and operating leverage.

EPS forecasts lift by 3% for FY27, 8% for FY28, 11% for FY29 and 12% for FY30, while the target price rises to $235.80 from $223.60.

Target price is $235.80 Current Price is $73.68 Difference: $162.12
If XRO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 220% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $137.74, suggesting upside of 72.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates XRO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes Xero's strong FY26 result and upgraded FY27 guidance highlight a business that is operationally performing well, with revenue and earnings exceeding expectations.

Despite this, shares fell on AI disruption concerns, which continue to dominate sentiment, the analysts explain.

Morgan Stanley argues the importance of accountants as a distribution channel is underappreciated, supporting subscriber growth, pricing power and customer lifetime value.

While further progress on AI monetisation is needed, Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating and $130 target. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $130.00 Current Price is $73.68 Difference: $56.32
If XRO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $137.74, suggesting upside of 72.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates XRO as Buy (1) -

Morgans observes earnings momentum for Xero continues to improve, with FY26 results beating estimates and adjusted EBITDA up 23%. The main issue, the broker contends, is whether AI is more an opportunity or a threat for the company.

Integration with leading large language models appears to "have spooked" some investors, yet management asserts this will grow its total addressable market and medium-term monetisation.

Morgans concludes it is early days for AI, although management appears confident enough to have announced a buyback and hint at potential capital management in FY28. Buy rating maintained along with an $111 target.

Target price is $111.00 Current Price is $73.68 Difference: $37.32
If XRO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $137.74, suggesting upside of 72.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates XRO as Buy (1) -

Xero delivered FY26 subscriber growth, revenue and earnings that all exceeded market expectations.

Ord Minnett notes, despite FY27 guidance also being ahead of expectations, the share market reaction was muted, reflecting investor concerns that overshadowed the performance.

Key was the announcement of "Claude for Small Business" which, commentary suggests, raised broader questions around competitive dynamics and AI-driven disruptions in the accounting software sector.

The broker points out underlying growth in the core business remains strong with limited reliance on payments and modest benefit from currency movements.

Longer-term assumptions have been moderated and the target reduced to $110 from $150. Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $110.00 Current Price is $73.68 Difference: $36.32
If XRO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $137.74, suggesting upside of 72.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources