Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates A1M as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has made a site visit to AIC Mines' Eloise, the copper mine in Queensland which is currently being expanded to nameplate 1.1mtpa.

The broker retains the view that the mine expansion is on schedule and commissioning should commence in the December quarter.

Major components of the process plants are on-site and structural steel erection is largely complete. Much of the plant is sized for 1.5mtpa throughput, providing an option for a low-cost staged expansion later in the mine life.

Buy rating. Target is raised to $1.00 from $0.85.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: $0.295
If A1M meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates A1M as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett recently visited Eloise for a site visit with AIC Mines' management where the progress on the mill expansion and Jericho development was showcased.

A production uplift of some 50% to FY28 remains on track. Due to recent exploration success, the analyst has upgraded throughput to 1.5Mtpa by FY29 which is expected to boost production growth by 5kt and reduce unit costs by around -10% for limited plant capex.

The broker raises the target price to 85c from 75c with no change in Speculative Buy rating. 

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: $0.145
If A1M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AIZ as Sell (5) -

Higher fuel prices in the June quarter stemming from the Middle East conflict mean deeper losses in the second half for Air New Zealand, UBS asserts.

Under the broker's current assumptions of resolution to the conflict and normalisation in crude prices, pre-tax losses are still likely to continue in FY27 although the pressure on the balance sheet appears manageable.

The recent drop in the share price reduces the "overvaluation" yet UBS retains a Sell rating until there is greater confidence in normalised oil supply.

No dividends are expected before FY28. Target is reduced to NZ$0.40 from NZ$0.42.

Current Price is $0.36. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Ahead of Aristocrat Leisure's Investor Day on July 1, Ord Minnett believes the market will be concentrating on the circa US$150m gap between management's Interactive revenue target of US$1bn in FY29 and consensus around US$850m–US$860m.

The analyst highlights that Interactive includes iCasino (online casino) and iLottery, and the segment generated US$440m of revenue in FY25, around 11% of group revenue.

US iCasino gross gaming revenue is expected to grow at a compound rate of 12% from 2025 to 2029. iLottery should be boosted by new contracts in Massachusetts and Michigan starting July 1. US iLottery gross wagers are forecast to generate a 13% CAGR over 2025–2029.

The broker forecasts Aristocrat can boost its market share to 15% by FY29 for US iCasino. Every 1% rise in market share equals an estimated US$11m in revenue or around a 0.4% lift in group EPS.

Target price is raised to $65 from $61, with Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $65.00 Current Price is $58.69 Difference: $6.31
If ALL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $63.90, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Buy (1) -

Post the Judo Capital ((JDO)) guidance downgrade around three specific exposures, Citi believes the exposure and skew to construction loans of around $70m-$80m indicates more of a "concentration" and credit risk management factor rather than a systemic issue.

The analyst stresses it does not mean the economy is traveling without risks and retains a cautious attitude around extending the Judo experience to the potential macro headwinds the banks might face.

Citi retains a cautious stance on the banking sector with a preference for business over retail-exposed banks. ANZ Bank is Buy rated with a $39.25 target and National Australia Bank ((NAB)) is Neutral rated.

Target price is $39.25 Current Price is $35.04 Difference: $4.21
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.52, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Overweight (1) -

While the recent earnings downgrades from Judo Capital ((JDO)) have raised concerns about SME credit quality, the major banks are still sound, Morgan Stanley asserts, although risks to credit quality are rising.

The broker considers that changes to property-related tax concessions could end Australia's 30-year housing "super cycle"; yet the feedback from major banks signals that mortgage applications have not fallen as much as feared, although there have been meaningful changes in sentiment and borrower intentions.

Morgan Stanley believes the probability of both EPS downgrades and a trading multiple de-rating has risen. The major bank order of preference starts with ANZ Bank with an Overweight rating. Target is $34. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $35.04 Difference: minus $1.04 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.52, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley's economics team in China notes that May activity has reinforced a more entrenched two-speed economy, as export-led production is being maintained while domestic consumption and investment have weakened.

Retail sales have turned negative while property sector remains "fragile". Steel exports in May decreased -2% and apparent domestic steel consumption fell -8.5%. Iron ore imports were flat in May.

BHP Group remains the broker's preferred diversified exposure with an unchanged Overweight rating and $67.50 target. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $67.50 Current Price is $58.99 Difference: $8.51
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $59.73, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CAR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett emphasises Car Group has a robust track record of "resilience" through the macroeconomic cycle, albeit there are some signs of near-term pressures, albeit the analyst suggests they are 'modest'.

EPS forecasts are trimmed slightly by some -1% for FY26 and FY27 on the expectation that growth over 2H26 will be slower versus the 1H26. It is anticipated to improve into FY27 onwards.

Softer dealer volumes due to higher fuel prices and macro headwinds are the contributing factors to the more modest 2H26 growth outlook.

Higher fuel prices are also likely to affect Trader Interactive in the US, while South Korea could experience some weaker than previously expected growth from Middle East disruptions around exports.

Brazil's Webmotors remains strong, around 20% growth, but only represents 15% of revenue.

Buy rated with a $35 target price.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $24.50 Difference: $10.5
If CAR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.90, suggesting upside of 32.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CMM as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

UBS initiates coverage on Capricorn Metals with a Buy rating and $17 target.

The large, low-cost open-pit projects in Western Australia make for a simple investment case and the broker highlights the company has a "good" track record of project delivery and in-house capability.

The business is also well funded, the broker observes, to complete the Mount Gibson build. There is also cash available for further reinvestment as well as capital return options.

UBS expects first production in the March quarter of 2028 and an expansion to 6.5mtpa in the March quarter of 2031, taking steady-state production to 220,000 ounces per annum.

The "blue sky" growth option is the Golden Range project, but this is not in the base case at present.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $12.25 Difference: $4.75
If CMM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.31, suggesting upside of 46.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IAG as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Macquarie downgrades Insurance Australia Group to Underperform from Neutral, believing it could be exposed to another -$740m of outstanding Greensill claims.

Credit Suisse, acting for Greensill, is seeking to amend the causation plea from an insurance claim to that of "misleading and deceptive conduct".

The broker does not believe the market is pricing in further downside risks related to the issue and a claim at any level could change how attractive the RACWA acquisition appears, and therefore medium-term earnings growth. Target is lowered to $7.00 from $8.50.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $8.05 Difference: minus $1.05 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.73, suggesting downside of -3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IGO as Buy (1) -

UBS points out lithium prices have receded over the last one-to-two months due to heightened concerns around higher battery inventories, softer China NEV sales, and uncertainty on CATL's supply outlook.

The analyst marks-to-market spodumene and chemical processes by -9% to -23% over 2026/2027, respectively, while retaining an upbeat "bullish" stance on lithium price momentum.

The lower prices result in lithium target prices being trimmed.

A Buy rating is retained on IGO Ltd with a new target of $9.65, down -1%.

UBS remains Overweight on the sector.

Target price is $9.65 Current Price is $7.31 Difference: $2.34
If IGO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.06, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates INR as Speculative Buy (1) -

ioneer has announced a conditional award from the US army to develop a domestic boron carbide and nitride processing facility in an army base in Utah, Ord Minnett points out.

The announcement comes post the letters of interest with Korean-backed KIND and Hyundai Engineering and is noted for management's decision to move away from corporate partnerships to government-related parties.

The analyst now assumes ioneer will not need to raise equity, previously an estimated circa US$270m was forecast.

The target price is lifted to 54c from 40c and a Speculative Buy rating is retained.

Target price is $0.54 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: $0.39
If INR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 260% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JDO as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

On the back of Judo Capital's earnings downgrade due to higher provisions for three exposures, UBS downgrades the stock to Neutral from Buy.

The market reaction to the news is framed by the analyst as the market querying Judo's business model.

The broker questions the underwriting/risk management of the non-bank lender and doesn't view the through-the-cycle write-off guidance of around -50bps on GLAs (gross loans & advances) as realistic.

EPS forecasts are lowered by -11% for FY26 and -18% for FY27. Target price is downgraded to $1.05 from $2.25, a cut of circa -53%.

Notably, this is above the -40% retracement in the share post the downgrade announcement as the analyst lowers the ascribed valuation multiple.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.88 Difference: $0.17
If JDO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.50, suggesting upside of 65.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JIN as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley revises its modelling for Jumbo Interactive to address calculations which meant EBITDA was understated by -8% over FY26-FY28. This revision flows through to a 9%-12% rise in reported net profit and EPS estimates for FY27-FY28.

Equal weight rating, $8.40 target unchanged. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $5.91 Difference: $2.49
If JIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.42, suggesting upside of 73.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LOT as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett notes production has been paused at Lotus Resources' Kayelekera U308 mine due to a lack of acid post-commissioning problems with the acid plant and the Middle East war, which has constrained third-party supplies.

U308 shipments are now expected to be delayed until September and the U308 producer does not anticipate it will meet its off-take agreement of 1Mlb in 2H2026.

By missing the off-take obligation, the analyst stresses it may cost the difference between the contract and spot U308 price, which management estimates at around –US$10m.

After accounting for the update, the broker stresses Lotus needs more funding and has US$26m in cash and first receipts which are shrinking to late 2026.

Ord Minnett believes investors will be hesitant to commit more cash for another raising and management will need to find other solutions.

A re-rating of the stock is viewed to be months away and dependent on U308 deliveries to begin. Hold with a $1 target price is unchanged.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.66 Difference: $0.34
If LOT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.00, suggesting upside of 203.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LTR as Buy (1) -

UBS points out lithium prices have receded over the last one-to-two months due to heightened concerns around higher battery inventories, softer China NEV sales, and uncertainty on CATL's supply outlook.

The analyst marks-to-market spodumene and chemical processes by -9% to -23% over 2026/2027, respectively, while retaining an upbeat "bullish" stance on lithium price momentum.

The lower prices result in lithium target prices being trimmed.

A Buy rating is retained on Liontown with a new target of $2.50, down -7%. UBS remains Overweight on the sector.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.66 Difference: $0.84
If LTR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.26, suggesting upside of 36.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NEU as Buy (1) -

The European regulator has reversed its initial rejection of Daybue after re-examination, and Bell Potter considers it extremely likely the drug advisory body will formalise the recommendation and approve trofinetide in Europe in two months' time.

The approved label would only be for European patients over five years old compared to the US where patients over two years old are eligible.

Neuren Pharmaceuticals would be eligible to receive a US$35m milestone upon further sales and tiered royalties on EU sales at a rate of 15%–21%. This adds around $2/share to the broker's valuation based on current forecasts.

Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $23.50 from $22.00.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $12.20 Difference: $11.3
If NEU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 93% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.37, suggesting upside of 45.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PDN as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

Paladin Energy announced the discovery of a new high-grade U308 area at the Patterson Lake South (PLS) project.

Ord Minnett points out the discovery is around 3.5 km south of the Triple R deposit with initial drilling pointing to a high-grade system of around 1%–2% U308.

The broker includes the "conceptual satellite" resources of around 0.5 Mt at 1.6% U308 or around 18 mlbs into the earnings forecast model.

Paladin's net asset value is raised by 25c per share to $3.50.

Given the recent fall in the share price, the stock is upgraded to Hold from Sell with an unchanged target of $9.50.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $9.35 Difference: $0.15
If PDN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.19, suggesting upside of 39.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PLS as Neutral (3) -

UBS points out lithium prices have receded over the last one-to-two months due to heightened concerns around higher battery inventories, softer China NEV sales, and uncertainty on CATL's supply outlook.

The analyst marks-to-market spodumene and chemical processes by -9% to -23% over 2026/2027, respectively, while retaining an upbeat "bullish" stance on lithium price momentum.

The lower prices result in lithium target prices being trimmed.

A Neutral rating is retained on PLS Group with a new target of $5.60, down -17%.

UBS remains Overweight on the sector.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.04 Difference: $0.56
If PLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.80, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PMT as Buy (1) -

UBS points out lithium prices have receded over the last one-to-two months due to heightened concerns around higher battery inventories, softer China NEV sales, and uncertainty on CATL's supply outlook.

The analyst marks-to-market spodumene and chemical processes by -9% to -23% over 2026/2027, respectively, while retaining an upbeat "bullish" stance on lithium price momentum.

The lower prices result in lithium target prices being trimmed.

A Buy rating is retained on PMET Resources with an unchanged target of 90c.

UBS remains Overweight on the sector.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.335
If PMT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PRU as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights the deployment of capital or shareholder returns, which will be the key decision for African coverage over coming years.

Perseus Mining is seen still trading at a premium, and has increased its buyback, with the broker envisaging an inflection in free cash flow in FY27 as Nyanzaga capital expenditure eases back and production increases.

Macquarie notes the company has brownfield expansion opportunities which could extend the mine lives of Yaoure, Sissingue and Edikan and add upside risk to the longer-term outlook.

Outperform rating and $6 target maintained.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: $0.85
If PRU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.61, suggesting upside of 27.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QAL as Buy (1) -

Qualitas hosted a webcast with management highlighting it has upgraded its long-term Australian funds management earnings (EBITDA) margin from over 50% to over 60% by using AI, Citi remarks.

By using 33 analytical agents across 1,900-plus risk questions for the proprietary credit execution platform, the analyst explains, Qualitas has been able to upgrade its margin outlook.

The update reinforces commentary from GPT Group's ((GPT)) recent "Human & Machine" research, a survey from major tenants, Citi notes, which outlined views that the physical workspace will be more important in an AI world.

Citi highlights that an expected 76% of respondents expect the headcount to remain "stable or grow" over the next two years.

The AI theme in real estate continues to develop, the broker remarks. Target price for Qualitas rises to $4.20 from $4 with an unchanged Buy rating.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.01 Difference: $1.19
If QAL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.88, suggesting upside of 25.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QAL as Outperform (1) -

Qualitas has upgraded margin guidance for long-term funds management EBITDA, driven by benefits from an AI-enabled platform that should streamline the investment process.

The company has developed a proprietary AI platform for its highly-manual underwriting process, with some of the earnings benefits to be recognised in FY28 before accelerating from FY29.

Macquarie observes the business continues to outpace industry FUM and deployment growth, which underpins robust EPS growth of more than 20% over FY26-FY28. Outperform reiterated. Target is reduced to $3.95 from $4.16.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.01 Difference: $0.94
If QAL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.88, suggesting upside of 25.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RSG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie pulls back its valuation of Resolute Mining, highlighting deployment of capital or shareholder returns will be the key decision for African coverage over coming years.

The stock appears attractively priced yet there are downside risks to earnings from disruptions in Mali. This is impacting equipment and consumables deliveries at Syama and will overhang earnings in the short term.

Management has reiterated 2026 guidance of 195-210,000 ounces for Syama yet this could come under pressure, the broker asserts, should the instability in Mali be exacerbated. Outperform rating. Target is $1.55.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: $0.54
If RSG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SPK as Outperform (1) -

Spark New Zealand has underperformed and Macquarie considers the current valuation an attractive entry point. The de-rating has occurred for valid reasons, with the broker noting non-core exposure, weaker earnings momentum and inconsistent delivery.

The investment case now depends on management rebuilding credibility by delivering on FY26 guidance, simplifying the business and executing on cost reductions.

The broker concludes the pathway to sustainable free cash flow growth dividend support is strengthening and retains an Outperform rating. Target is reduced to NZ$2.73 from NZ$3.08.

Current Price is $1.54. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SVR as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans highlights Solvar continues to move further into commercial lending and has experienced a pick-up in book growth momentum and Australian originations. Bennji volumes are now beginning to contribute more substantially to earnings.

Recent interest rate rises as well as higher operating costs due to Bennji originations and the divestment of NZ arrears have resulted in an FY26 earnings uplift from provisions which will not be repeated post the current fiscal year, the broker states.

Morgans downgrades FY27 EPS and DPS for the changes with an accompanying lowering of the share price target to $1.65 from $2.00.

There is no change in the Accumulate rating.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.13
If SVR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TCG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights deployment of capital or shareholder returns, which will be the key decision for African coverage over coming years.

Turaco Gold has delivered its prefeasibility study for Afema and is progressing through to a definitive feasibility study, due in the first half of 2027. The broker envisages an option to re-rate in line with peers as project de-risking is achieved through to development.

No changes made to the Outperform rating and $1 target.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.52
If TCG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 108% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TCG as Downgrade to Speculative Buy from Buy (1) -

Morgans transfers coverage of Turaco Gold to Flynn Tyson and downgrades the stock to Speculative Buy from Buy with a new target price of $1.18 from $2.19.

The definitive feasibility study for Afema has been announced with a circa 200kozpa open pit gold operation with a 10-year-plus mine life. The analyst points out the maiden ore reserve of 1.91Moz which is viewed as a significant 'de-risking' event for the miner.

The post-tax NPV5 of US$2.1bn includes an internal rate of return of 79% and a 13-month payback at US$43,500/oz. Initial capex is US$442m and life of mine AISC US$1,508/oz.

Morgans believes the current valuation ascribed to the stock doesn't discount the future long-term value of Afema, as well as exploration upside.

Target price is $1.18 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.7
If TCG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 146% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WAF as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie pulls back its valuation of West African Resources, highlighting deployment of capital or shareholder returns will be the key decision for African coverage over coming years.

The stock price is in line with its April low, the broker observes, following the announcement that the Burkina Faso government will take an additional 25% equity interest in Kiaka reducing the company's ownership to 60%.

The company has highlighted its intention to increase shareholder returns. Macquarie suspects the market is hesitant given the recent developments and this is likely to dominate sentiment in the near term.

Catalysts will be production expansion of Kiaka and an improvement in Sanbrado grades, lifting production above 500,000 ounces per annum from 2027 onwards. Outperform. Target is $4.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.88 Difference: $1.12
If WAF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ZZZ as No Rating (-1) - \n

ioneer has announced a conditional award from the US army to develop a domestic boron carbide and nitride processing center in an army base in Utah, Orrd Minnet point out.

The announcement comes post the letters of interest with Korean-backed KIND and Hyundai Engineering, and is noted for management's decision to reorganize away from corporate partnerships to government-related parties over the next 10-15 years.

The analyst now assumes ioneer will not need to raise equity in FY26-28, which lowers costs by 15%.

The target price is lifted to 54c and 40c and a Speculative Buy rating is retained.

Current Price is $0.00. Target price not assessed.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources