Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AIZ as Underperform (5) -

Air New Zealand has suspended its service to Shanghai until March 29. The impact on international earnings is limited, the broker suggests, but the impact of the loss of Chinese tourists taking domestic flights in NZ is more material.

The impact from global disease events is typically short-lived, the broker notes. The broker already had an Underperform rating and is sticking with that, while increasing its target to NZ$2.45 from NZ$2.40 on a valuation roll-forward.

Current Price is $2.68. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMC as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett believes Amcor is undervalued and the stable and well-diversified earnings stream is not fully appreciated.

The broker also envisages upside for volumes and margins if Amcor can help packaged goods companies reach sustainability goals.

Modest organic earnings growth is expected in the second quarter and the company will report its first half result on February 12.

Accumulate rating maintained. Target rises to $17 from $16.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $16.04 Difference: $0.96
If AMC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.24, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ARB as Neutral (3) -

First half net profit was below Citi's estimates. An improvement in second quarter sales growth was more than offset by margin headwinds, the broker notes.

Growth is expected to continue improving in the second half and exports may benefit from a lower Australian dollar.

The broker believes the company is well-placed to drive medium-term earnings, given an increasing preference by consumers for sports utility vehicles and 4WDs.

Neutral rating maintained. Target reduced to $19.05 from $19.45.

Target price is $19.05 Current Price is $18.87 Difference: $0.18
If ARB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.99, suggesting downside of -4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ARB as Neutral (3) -

The company has warned its first half result will be affected by currency and weak car sales.

Credit Suisse notes the stock has generally withstood profit warnings and suspects it will remain range bound.

Moreover, the stock is trading at a relative premium that is not unreasonable by historical standards.

For the broker to take a more positive view it would require a recovery in 4WD sales, a reversal of the Thai baht strength or a game-changing acquisition.

Neutral maintained. Target is raised to $17.90 from $16.80.

Target price is $17.90 Current Price is $18.87 Difference: minus $0.97 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.99, suggesting downside of -4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ARB as Hold (3) -

The company has indicated a 7.1% increase in sales revenue in the first half although net profit is down -7.4%.

Ord Minnett notes the strong track record of earnings growth and believes ARB remains a high-quality business.

The current share price, however, implies no material upside in the near future and the broker retains a Hold rating. Target is raised to $17.00 from $16.50.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $18.87 Difference: minus $1.87 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.99, suggesting downside of -4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BAP as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans expects around 10% sales growth in FY20 noting, while the company reiterated its growth guidance at the AGM there was a softer tone from management. Bapcor foreshadowed softer margins across all businesses at the AGM.

The broker suspects earnings growth will be skewed to the second half. While cautious about the results, Morgans suspects the outlook is improving and upgrades to Add from Hold. Target is $6.90.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $6.81 Difference: $0.09
If BAP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.64, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BWP as Sell (5) -

In the wake of the first half result Citi adjusts forecasts to reflect lower rent and lower debt costs. Target is raised to $3.07 from $3.00 on higher property values and the rolling forward of valuation.

Citi notes capital profits will continue to be used to support distributions when necessary, meaning the company may pay out more than 100% of earnings.

A repositioning of non-core assets continues to weigh on the stock and the broker reiterates a Sell rating.

Target price is $3.07 Current Price is $4.10 Difference: minus $1.03 (current price is over target).
If BWP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.39, suggesting downside of -17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BWP as Lighten (4) -

First half underlying earnings were below Ord Minnett's estimates. The broker considers the portfolio conservatively valued and it should benefit from the re-rating of industrial property.

However, this is considered largely reflected in the current valuation and a Lighten rating is maintained. Target is raised to $3.85 from $3.65.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $4.10 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If BWP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.39, suggesting downside of -17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BWP as Sell (5) -

First half results were in line with estimates. UBS observes investors in BWP Trust are dealing with an elevated level of risk relative to history.

Nevertheless, the stock is trading on an implied capitalisation rate of around 4.8%, reflecting what the broker regards as an unjustifiable defensive "premium".

UBS is not comfortable extrapolating individual transactions across the whole portfolio. Sell rating maintained. Target is raised to $3.24 from $2.99.

Target price is $3.24 Current Price is $4.10 Difference: minus $0.86 (current price is over target).
If BWP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.39, suggesting downside of -17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CGF as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett expects Challenger will hit its full-year FY20 guidance. The company will report first half results on February 11.

The broker, however, retains a Lighten rating on valuation and a risk/reward basis. Target is raised to $7.50 from $6.50 as the valuation is rolled forward.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $8.85 Difference: minus $1.35 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.56, suggesting downside of -14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CIM as Outperform (1) -

2019 underlying net profit was in line with guidance and expectations. This includes the previously-announced loss related to the exit of the BICC business in the Middle East.

The final dividend was cancelled but dividends are expected to return to normal in 2020. Management would not comment on speculation regarding a potential mining asset sale.

Credit Suisse reiterates an Outperform rating and raises the target to $38.50 from $35.00.

Target price is $38.50 Current Price is $30.98 Difference: $7.52
If CIM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.39, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CIM as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Cimic's result met recently updated guidance. Continuing the theme of recent results, mining once again beat forecasts and construction once again missed, Macquarie notes, although a decline in activity in protest-ridden Hong Kong offset strength in local infrastructure development.

Strong cash generation leads the broker to anticipate a return to dividends as early as the first half 2020. This, and the fact the stock is trading at its largest PE discount to the market in ten years, prompts an upgrade to Outperform. Target rises to $32.64 from $32.49.

Target price is $32.64 Current Price is $30.98 Difference: $1.66
If CIM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.39, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CIM as Neutral (3) -

2019 results were in line with UBS estimates and the recently-updated guidance. The results include the charges relating to the exit from the Middle East. Mining results, operationally, were strong with earnings (EBIT) up 38%.

UBS remains attracted to the company's dominant position in the Australian infrastructure construction market but as the stock is trading near the target retains a Neutral rating. Target slips to $30.40 from $30.41.

Target price is $30.40 Current Price is $30.98 Difference: minus $0.58 (current price is over target).
If CIM meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.39, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

UBS observes a strong start to FY20 for immunoglobulin in the US, which supports current revenue growth assumptions for CSL Behring. More modest growth is expected in haemophilia portfolio.

The stock is trading at around a 103% premium to the ASX200 and the broker places its price target of $295 and Buy rating under review.

Target price is $295.00 Current Price is $316.21 Difference: minus $21.21 (current price is over target).
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $281.84, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CWN as Neutral (3) -

The Macau government will close its casinos for two weeks to inhibit the spread of coronavirus. Credit Suisse suspects travel restrictions may directly impact the Australian casino sector.

The broker calculates VIP accounts for around 13% of Crown Resorts' FY20 revenue and 7% of gross profit.

Therefore, VIP turnover estimates for January-June 2020 are reduced further, with a decline of -22% incorporated. No growth in turnover is expected in the July-December period.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is $12.45.

Target price is $12.45 Current Price is $11.60 Difference: $0.85
If CWN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.21, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EOF as Buy (1) -

First half net profit was in line with Ord Minnett's estimates. The company also reported a strong gross margin of 81%, stemming from processing efficiencies and raw material price improvements.

The company has demonstrated it is the leader in the US hemp industry, which is undergoing a period of rationalisation and has a large emerging addressable market.

The broker believes the company has the characteristics to succeed and maintains a Buy rating. Target is reduced to $4.01 from $4.07.

Target price is $4.01 Current Price is $2.82 Difference: $1.19
If EOF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IEL as Add (1) -

A strong first half is expected when the company reports on February 12. Morgans notes the share price has fallen meaningfully on the back of the potential impact from coronavirus as it is causing a reduction in global migration trends.

The broker makes minor revisions to assumptions ahead of the result and maintains an Add rating. Target is reduced to $19.56 from $19.85.

Morgans remains comfortable with the diversified earnings stream and the ability of the company to mitigate any short-term impact.

Target price is $19.56 Current Price is $17.80 Difference: $1.76
If IEL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.34, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IFL as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett notes operating conditions have been affected by a step-down in the ANZ P&I coupon interest, ownership of former ANZ-aligned dealer groups and some margin pressure from regulatory and competitive dynamics.

First half guidance for underlying net profit of $61-63m is broadly in line with forecasts and the broker retains a Lighten rating and $7.70 target.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $7.24 Difference: $0.46
If IFL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.78, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ILU as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Citi notes the coronavirus outbreak has continued to worsen and this affects both the global and Chinese economic outlook in 2020.

The broker's GDP forecasts for China have been lowered for 2020 to 5.5% growth and most of the commodity price forecasts have been downgraded.

However, while the coronavirus creates uncertainty regarding the timing of an improvement in realised zircon prices, Citi believes 2020 will be the low.

Iluka Resources is upgraded to Neutral from Sell and the target is raised to $9.40 from $9.00.

Target price is $9.40 Current Price is $9.77 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.72, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IPL as Outperform (1) -

The share price has pulled back, Credit Suisse observes, consistent with weak fertiliser pricing in the first half. Domestically, investors appear to have little confidence in a review of the fertiliser business.

However, the broker argues there is limited downside at this point and the explosives position is under appreciated, as Incitec Pivot is increasingly benefitting from its technological advantage amid improving cash flow.

Outperform rating maintained. Target falls to $3.72 from $3.82.

Target price is $3.72 Current Price is $3.14 Difference: $0.58
If IPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.51, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates JBH as Underperform (5) -

Credit Suisse continues to diverge from consensus, with numbers that are around -50 basis points below guidance on sales revenue and below the market on margin.

Softness in the broader discretionary retail segment since the Black Friday week has been widely noted and continued into January, the broker points out. Credit Suisse retains an Underperform rating and raises the target to $28.27 from $26.02.

Target price is $28.27 Current Price is $41.17 Difference: minus $12.9 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.06, suggesting downside of -14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHG as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi found plenty of positives in the fourth quarter results. Revenue trends are encouraging and ahead of forecasts and the investment performance is strong while fee margin is stabilising.

While headline net outflows were worse than forecast, the broker asserts this disguises the improvement in equity and multi-asset flows

Intech remains a risk, as the improvement was not as great as expected. A new buyback of US$200m will also support earnings per share.

Citi upgrades to Buy from Neutral and raises the target to $42.10 from $38.40.

Target price is $42.10 Current Price is $38.44 Difference: $3.66
If JHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.57, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates JHG as Underperform (5) -

Operating income beat estimates in the fourth quarter, offset by weakness in other items. Outflows deteriorated again, Credit Suisse notes. Outflows of -US$6.7bn were worse than the -US$3.5bn reported in the prior quarter.

Meanwhile, the board has approved a US$200m buyback through to April 2021. If combined with a stable dividend in FY20, Credit Suisse expects the company will distribute roughly all its earnings through dividends and buybacks.

Moreover, the size of the buyback means it is unlikely the company will return to a progressive dividend policy this year. Underperform rating and $30.67 target maintained.

Target price is $30.67 Current Price is $38.44 Difference: minus $7.77 (current price is over target).
If JHG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $38.57, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHG as Overweight (1) -

While there are several positive aspects to the fourth quarter results Morgan Stanley suspects the large headline outflows will weigh on the stock.

A large mandate loss has kicked off the first quarter of 2020 although there have been no large redemptions from Intech to date.

Performance fees for 2020 appear healthy to the broker, given several EU-based strategies have improved. Overweight maintained. Target is $47.00. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $47.00 Current Price is $38.44 Difference: $8.56
If JHG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.57, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LOV as Buy (1) -

Citi suspects industry consolidation will allow the company to gain share in the Australasian fashion jewellery market.

One of its local competitors appears to have entered into administration and the Australian fashion jewellery market remains highly fragmented.

Over the longer term earnings are expected to be underpinned by the rolling out of international stores.

The broker retains a Buy rating and $14.10 target.

Target price is $14.10 Current Price is $12.00 Difference: $2.1
If LOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.53, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MGX as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi notes the coronavirus outbreak has continued to worsen and this affects both the global and Chinese economic outlook in 2020.

The broker's GDP forecasts for China have been lowered for 2020 to 5.5% growth and most of the commodity price forecasts have been downgraded.

While the 2020 iron ore benchmark price forecast is unchanged at US$75/dmt, the broker revises down Mount Gibson estimates by -3%.

Rating is downgraded to Sell/High Risk from Neutral/High Risk and the target lowered to $0.80 from $0.85.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.91 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If MGX meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MTO as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans expects a weaker first half result, despite cost reductions and better dealership earnings.

The broker does not expect the company to provide formal FY20 guidance but it may signal that it is cycling a very weak base in the second half.

The broker makes no changes to forecasts but downgrades to Hold from Add. Target is $2.28.

Target price is $2.28 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $0.37
If MTO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHC as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi notes the coronavirus outbreak has continued to worsen and this affects both the global and Chinese economic outlook in 2020.

The broker's GDP forecasts for China have been lowered for 2020 to 5.5% growth and most of the commodity price forecasts have been downgraded.

However, thermal coal forecasts are unchanged at US$65/t for 2020 and US$75/t for 2021.

Citi notes the New Hope shares are down -25% over the last three months as the company has announced it may be in court again over the WICET debts. The company is also awaiting approvals for New Acland stage 3.

Citi still expects New Acland will get the go-ahead and upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Target is $2.20.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $0.29
If NHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.45, suggesting upside of 28.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes media reports that Chinese LNG importers are considering force majeure declarations on contracted cargoes as a result of the fall in energy demand.

Sinopec takes around 75% of APLNG's export capacity and is also a 25% shareholder in APLNG.

If force majeure were declared, Morgan Stanley assesses this would be a negative for Origin Energy's distributions from APLNG for however long the declaration lasted.

Equal-weight rating. Target is $8.28. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $8.28 Current Price is $7.82 Difference: $0.46
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.78, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QBE as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett believes QBE Insurance has positive exposure to the considerable hardening of the commercial insurance cycle, although there are some concerns around short-term volatility relating to reserves.

The company will report its 2019 results on February 17. Ord Minnett maintains an Accumulate rating and raises the target to $14.54 from $13.60.

Target price is $14.54 Current Price is $13.85 Difference: $0.69
If QBE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.09, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QBE as Buy (1) -

Reserve risks are back in the spotlight but UBS suggests the company's US reserves are in better shape than they have been historically, with lower exposure to more problematic classes.

Hence, QBE Insurance appears well-placed to deliver steady improvements in its core operating ratio in 2020. The broker retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $14.70 from $13.80.

Target price is $14.70 Current Price is $13.85 Difference: $0.85
If QBE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.09, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SCP as Sell (5) -

First half results were better than expected and FY20 guidance is upgraded to 16.9c per security. However, the results highlight a tougher market for retail landlords, in the broker's view.

Higher overheads and lower rent are being offset by the impact of retaining the stake in Charter Hall Retail ((CQR)).

The results indicate that market conditions continue to get worse, which supports Citi's preference for non-retail exposures.

Sell rating maintained. Target is raised to $2.27 from $2.24.

Target price is $2.27 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: minus $0.72 (current price is over target).
If SCP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.69, suggesting downside of -10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SCP as Neutral (3) -

First half results were broadly in line with Credit Suisse estimates. FY20 earnings guidance is upgraded to 16.9c per security, slightly ahead of expectations.

This is mainly because of the net impact of acquisitions in the first half. Portfolio occupancy was up slightly to 98.3%.

The broker believes the company deserves credit for not simply undertaking acquisitions because it can and retains a Neutral rating, raising the target to $2.74 from $2.46.

Target price is $2.74 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If SCP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.69, suggesting downside of -10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SCP as Neutral (3) -

Shopping Centres' result slightly beat the broker and FY20 guidance was in line with expectation. An upgrade to funds from operations expectations is a positive, the broker notes, along with improvement in sales growth.

But leasing conditions remain difficult, ultimately impacting on dividends. Neutral retained, target falls to $2.84 from $2.91.

Target price is $2.84 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If SCP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.69, suggesting downside of -10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SCP as Underweight (5) -

The company has released first half results which were in line with forecasts. FY20 guidance has been raised to 16.9c per security.

Morgan Stanley notes the guidance upgrade comes from a mix of both the retention of the Charter Hall Retail ((CQR)) stake and fees related to the winding up of SURF as well as $50m in acquisitions.

The broker maintains an Underweight rating because of elevated incentives and negative leasing spreads. In-Line industry view. Target is raised to $2.45 from $2.35.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If SCP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.69, suggesting downside of -10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SCP as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

First half results revealed leasing markets for retail have deteriorated. Ord Minnett is concerned this will become worse.

Neighbourhood centre capitalisation rates also remain elevated, which the broker assesses largely reflects direct market inefficiencies and is something the company could exploit.

Ord Minnett downgrades to Hold from Accumulate because of a recent run up in the share price. Target is raised to $3.00 from $2.70 to reflect a lower cost of capital.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $0.01
If SCP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.69, suggesting downside of -10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SCP as Neutral (3) -

First half results were in line with UBS estimates. The broker believes the company has done a sound job re-positioning its acquisitions in order to improve the sustainability of income.

However, rents are down -4% and specialty vacancies remain elevated. UBS maintains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $2.84 from $2.66.

Target price is $2.84 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If SCP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.69, suggesting downside of -10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SEK as Downgrade to Reduce from Hold (5) -

Morgans downgrades to Reduce from Hold to reflect a view that coronavirus may be more disruptive to Asian job markets and last longer than the SARS virus. The company is highly leveraged to Asian job ads.

The broker lowers FY20 and FY21 estimates by -9.7% and -21.4% respectively. Target is reduced to $19.25 from $21.82.

Target price is $19.25 Current Price is $21.76 Difference: minus $2.51 (current price is over target).
If SEK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.52, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SGR as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

The Macau government will close its casinos for two weeks to inhibit the spread of coronavirus. Credit Suisse suspects the travel restrictions could directly affect the Australian casino sector.

There may also be another fairly small impact from Chinese tour groups and China's premium mass players postponing trips to Australia.

On this basis, the broker expects turnover in VIP to be down -15% over January to June 2020, and the July-December period is expected to show a -7% decline in turnover because of the opening of the Sydney Sovereign Room.

Given the share price has fallen towards valuation, Credit Suisse upgrades to Neutral from Underperform. Target is $4.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If SGR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.53, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGR as Outperform (1) -

The broker considers the -14% drop in Star Entertainment's share price due to the coronavirus is an overreaction. VIP will be impacted but it is only 10% of earnings to a strong domestic market's 90%.

The broker also considers fears of competition from rival Crown Resorts ((CWN)) in Sydney are overblown, given Barangaroo will only service the high end of the market.

Target cut to $4.55 from $4.75, Outperform retained.

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: $0.37
If SGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.53, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates XRO as Sell (5) -

The broker's analysis shows that momentum continues into the second half in many jurisdictions, although trends are negative in the US and Canada. Regulatory change is the main driver of subscriber growth in the near term.

While positive about the business, UBS concedes everything has a price and assesses the current share price is factoring in success without compensating investors with the risks involved. Sell rating maintained. Target rises to $62 from $59.

Target price is $62.00 Current Price is $86.89 Difference: minus $24.89 (current price is over target).
If XRO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $75.00, suggesting downside of -13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources