Australian Broker Call

Citi rates AIA as Neutral (3) -

Auckland International Airport announced strong March monthly traffic, with international up 8%, which Citi attributes to the rise in short haul travel from Australian nationals, up 15%.

Despite a decline in passengers from the Middle East, down over -75%, long haul travel managed to advance, rising 5% m/m. The analyst also noted transit passengers lifted 9% m/m as NZ became more of a transit destination due to the Middle East war.

Capacity cuts from Air New Zealand are expected to impact from April to June on domestic passenger growth, which rose a "healthy" 3% in March.

Neutral retained. Target $7.26.

Target price is $7.26 Current Price is $6.74 Difference: $0.52
If AIA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.26, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AMA as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has downgraded AMA Group's FY26 and FY27 earnings forecasts due to the ongoing Middle East war and the higher probability fuel prices will remain higher for longer, which is expected to have a negative impact on repair volumes.

The longer term estimates have also been lowered to err on the conservative side, and the net impact is earnings (EBITDA) forecasts down -7% for FY26 and FY27 and down -4% for FY28.

The current FY26 earnings (EBITDA) forecast of $67m is below guidance of $70m-$75m. The analyst flags a downgrade in guidance at the upcoming 3Q update later in April.

Buy rating retained with a lower target of $1.10 from $1.20.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: $0.595
If AMA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 118% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes Amcor has been displaying a strong and negative correlation with oil and suspects elevated oil prices will be a headwind to earnings. A de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East would reduce the risk.

Concerns centre on higher resin costs squeezing margins and the volume outlook amid an inflationary environment. Resin supply is also in focus, considering the Middle East and Asia are large petrochemical producers.

No changes are made to forecasts as the situation is opaque and the target is steady at $86.50. Outperform.

Target price is $86.50 Current Price is $57.22 Difference: $29.28
If AMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $77.20, suggesting upside of 38.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Overweight (1) -

Due to an expected weaker economic outlook, Morgan Stanley has downgraded loan growth expectations and loan loss forecasts. for the banks.

While the reporting season is anticipated to show ongoing recent trends for good volume growth, stable margins, and no surprises on costs and credit quality, the analyst explains the outlook commentary is flagged to be more "cautious".

On average, the broker has lowered loan forecasts by around -1% and lifted impairment charges on average by circa 6bps, to around 33%.

ANZ Bank's EPS forecasts are lowered by around -2% to -4% for FY26-FY28. Target price slips to $37 from $37.80.

Overweight. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $38.22 Difference: minus $1.22 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.58, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BOE as Buy (1) -

Boss Energy announced another production guidance downgrade to 1.4mlbs-1.45mlbs from 1.6mlbs (drummed), with Bell Potter noting wet weather is the culprit this time, which has affected site access and reagent deliveries over the March quarter.

The 3Q26 drummed production of 203klbs came in lower than guidance of 240klbs-270klbs, and 4Q26 production is now guided to 356klbs-406klbs versus 490klbs-520klbs.

Cost guidance of C1 at $36/lb-$40/lb and AISC of $60/lb-$64/lb are retained, but may come in more elevated due to the rain, the broker explains.

Target price falls to $1.80 from $1.95, with no change to Buy rating. EPS forecasts are downgraded by -5% for FY26 and -27% for FY27.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.57 Difference: $0.235
If BOE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.63, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOE as Underperform (5) -

Boss Energy has downgraded production guidance for FY26 at Honeymoon following extended disruptions because of the weather. Heavy rainfall has degraded road conditions, limiting reagent deliveries.

Production guidance downgrades implies fourth quarter production of 356,000-406,000 pounds and Macquarie revises cost forecasts while also increasing sustaining capital expenditure estimates.

The broker found the update disappointing and remains cautious about the long-term outlook ahead of the new feasibility study. Underperform. Target rises 3.8% to $1.35 on factoring in the recent resource upgrades at Gould's Dam and Jason's.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.57 Difference: minus $0.215 (current price is over target).
If BOE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.63, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BOE as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

Ahead of Boss Energy's 3Q26 update, the uranium producer downgraded FY26 production for Honeymoon to 1.4mlb-1.45mlb of drummed uranium after heavy wet weather, which cut output over the period to less than half of the December quarter at 203klb, Ord Minnett explains.

The analyst refers to the update as "mildly" disappointing and sees the upcoming studies on the wide-spaced wellfield strategy as considerably more important and will determine the future of the Honeymoon operations.

The latest downgrade is viewed as "noise". Ord Minnett believes until the study data is released there is no certainty around the mine life, production rates, and costs.

The stock is upgraded to Hold from Sell due to the share price fall, with an unchanged $1.50 target.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.57 Difference: minus $0.065 (current price is over target).
If BOE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.63, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Due to an expected weaker economic outlook, Morgan Stanley has downgraded loan growth expectations and loan loss forecasts for the banks.

While the reporting season is anticipated to show ongoing recent trends for good volume growth, stable margins, and no surprises on costs and credit quality, the analyst explains the outlook commentary is flagged to be more "cautious".

On average, the broker has lowered loan forecasts by around -1% and lifted impairment charges on average by circa 6bps, to around 33%.

CommBank's EPS forecasts are lowered by -1.8% for FY26 and -1.6% for FY27. Target price slips to $131 from $131.20.

Underweight rating retained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $131.00 Current Price is $183.19 Difference: minus $52.19 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $127.04, suggesting downside of -28.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CCL as Buy (1) -

Cuscal has an exclusive arrangement with Worldline to acquire Paymark for -$27m cash, funded through an equity
raising under its existing placement capacity.

Bell Potter assesses the acquisition will provide immediate scale in the New Zealand market and, while accretion looks more modest this time around, a strong execution track record and proven ability to win deals is in evidence.

Separately, the broker notes, the company has provided financial guidance which signals net profit of around $44m in FY26 with the addition of Indue.

Bell Potter retains a Buy rating and raises its target to $5.80 from $5.10.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $4.49 Difference: $1.31
If CCL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CHI as Neutral (3) -

Channel Infrastructure NZ has produced first quarter operating numbers showing strong growth in jet and diesel fuels, offsetting weakness in petrol. Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has tightened global oil supply chains and driven prices higher, particularly for refined products.

In this environment, Macquarie considers the company will be a net beneficiary.

As a fuel infrastructure "landlord" and terminal operator it is one of the most defensive stocks on the NZ stock exchange and a large take-or-pay contract structure insulates earnings from volatility during supply disruptions.

The broker does point out the recent strong re-rating of the share price is now factoring in meaningful "blue sky" and a Neutral rating is retained. Target is steady at NZ$2.77.

Current Price is $2.46. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CNU as Outperform (1) -

Chorus has updated on third quarter connections with the total increasing quarter on quarter for the first time since FY13. Fibre uptake across the wider company network rose by 0.7% to 73.1%.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating, which reflects increased regulatory certainty and the step change in dividend profile. The broker expects investors will remain attracted to a sustainable dividend. Target is unchanged at NZ$10.26.

Current Price is $7.83. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

UBS points to strong corporate action activity and US Corporate Trust issuance in the March quarter, supporting transactional revenues for Computershare, despite heightened market volatility.

Near-term earnings are expected to remain resilient, with higher margin income yields offsetting potential pressure on activity if volatility persists.

Commentary also suggests longer-term risks from structural factors such as blockchain and tokenisation, which may weigh on the outlook.

UBS retains a Neutral rating and lowers its target to $32.75 from $35.30.

This is a summary of UBS research released yesterday.

Target price is $32.75 Current Price is $29.82 Difference: $2.93
If CPU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.79, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DUR as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett observes Duratec has won a $281m contract at HMAS Stirling at Garden Island (WA), which reflects the ongoing momentum and robust outlook for the company.

The contract is considered the "main works" following a $9.2m contract for initial on-site work and is expected to last 24 months.

Today's report highlights the order book at $400m going into 2H26, with tenders of $1.8bn and a potential $4.6bn pipeline.

The National Defence Strategy due this week will also lend further support to the outlook for Duratec, the broker believes.

Target price rises 37% to $2.95, with an unchanged Accumulate rating.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.84 Difference: $0.11
If DUR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EVN as Buy (1) -

Evolution Mining produced 170,100 ounces of gold and 10,800t of copper in the March quarter while AISC was $2220/oz and up 75% as copper byproduct credits was significantly reduced. FY26 production and cost guidance is unchanged.

Operations at Ernest Henry have steadied and Bell Potter anticipates increased gold and copper production and lower costs in the June quarter.

A strong positive reaction to the results stems from the company still generating near record free cash flow even with the disruptions encountered during the quarter.

The broker retains a Buy rating, reducing the target to $16.45 from $16.60.

Target price is $16.45 Current Price is $14.45 Difference: $2
If EVN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.63, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

Citi observes a "mixed" set of operational results from Evolution Mining's 3Q update.

Production was 2% above consensus at 170koz and AISC came in 16% higher than consensus at $2,220. Heavy rain over February and March for Ernest Henry lifted the wet weather impact to 9koz-11koz Au and 6kt-8kt of Cu from 7koz-8koz Au and 4kt-5kt of Cu.

Production from Ernest Henry missed consensus by -39% but management has retained FY26 group production guidance.

Ahead of the earnings call, the stock is Neutral rated with a $15 target.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $14.45 Difference: $0.55
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.63, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

Evolution Mining produced 170,100 ounces gold in the third quarter, in line with Macquarie's estimates. Copper production of 10,800t missed estimates. Guidance for FY26 gold and copper production has been maintained.

The broker notes exploration results from a new prospect at Cowal, called Oban, have been announced.

While early days, there is a potential for a new underground mine and additional drilling is planned over the next 12-18 months. Neutral retained, as the valuation is considered fair. Target price rises 10% to $14.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $14.45 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.63, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EVN as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Gold production from Evolution Mining met expectations in the third quarter, despite the impact of the weather and maintenance. A strong fourth quarter is anticipated in order to achieve guidance.

Morgans assesses the stock is the highest quality and most consistent gold producer on the ASX, and recent sector weakness has improved valuation support.

The broker envisages an advantage in increasing exposure at current levels, given the strong balance sheet and consistent operating performance. Rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold and the target edges down to $16.10 from $17.70.

Target price is $16.10 Current Price is $14.45 Difference: $1.65
If EVN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.63, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Accumulate (2) -

Evolution Mining announced 3Q26 production, which met Ord Minnett's expectations, while AISC were higher by 9% due to reduced copper production at Ernest Henry Mine (EHM) at 4kt versus a forecast of 7kt.

Management retained FY26 guidance, with the broker viewing the update as viable, with an expected improvement at Cowal in 4Q as well as Ernest Henry Mine (EHM).

Although sales were lower than estimated by -12koz, the free cash flow of $404m and net cash of $42m met expectations due to reduced capital spending.

The analyst believes there are upside risks to capital returns and forecasts a 30c full-year DPS versus consensus at 25c per share. Target price is raised to $13.70, with an unchanged Accumulate rating.

Target price is $13.70 Current Price is $14.45 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.63, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects iron ore shipments in the third quarter from Fortescue will be in line with consensus estimates of around 49mt.

Shipments have tracked consistently with or above seasonally-adjusted guidance, with the company relatively unaffected by Cyclone Narelle in late March.

The focus will be on the impact of higher diesel costs and any comments on strip ratio optimisation, commentary suggests. Electrification would also be considered a positive.

The broker has a $23 target, edging up from $22, and an Outperform rating.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $20.77 Difference: $2.23
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.83, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates INA as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS upgrades its rating for Ingenia Communities to Buy from Neutral, arguing concerns around its Holiday Parks exposure are overstated. The $4.60 target is maintained.

Most assets are low risk, the analysts highlight, with limited earnings impact from fuel-related headwinds. Only modest EPS forecast downgrades across FY26–27 are implemented.

Despite some near-term uncertainty, UBS highlights attractive valuation levels and historically strong returns at current multiples.

This is a summary of UBS research released yesterday.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.06 Difference: $0.54
If INA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.87, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LIC as Neutral (3) -

UBS assesses a mixed outcome from Lifestyle Communities’ 3Q26 update, with solid settlements supporting FY26 delivery and improved balance sheet metrics, including lower net debt and inventory levels.

Elsewhere, there was a slowdown in sales momentum, the analysts highlight, with volumes falling to the lowest levels since 1H25 amid weaker sentiment and longer decision cycles.

While contracts on hand provide near-term support, sales velocity is seen as a key risk, particularly in relation to debt covenant thresholds.

UBS retains a Neutral rating and $5.80 target.

This is a summary of UBS research released yesterday.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $4.56 Difference: $1.24
If LIC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.54, suggesting upside of 19.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley explains Macquarie Group's commodity revenues were around 20% of group revenues in FY25, with EMEA generating 25%-30% of total Commodities and Global Markets (CGM) over the last few years.

The analyst expects gas price volatility to remain elevated, with the US gas dispersion index up 54% y/y in the March quarter from 15% in the December quarter, and forecasts commodity revenue growth of 32% y/y in 2H26, above consensus at 29% growth.

The CGM division is a direct beneficiary of trading opportunities from elevated volatility, with the analyst highlighting the group's current LNG commitments total 1.1mtpa and represent US$550m-US$600m of annual revenue on a long term average price.

This revenue has the potential to double during periods of "stress". Overweight rated with a $270 target.

Target price is $270.00 Current Price is $235.13 Difference: $34.87
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $240.70, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Underweight (5) -

Due to an expected weaker economic outlook, Morgan Stanley has downgraded loan growth expectations and loan loss forecasts for the banks.

While the reporting season is anticipated to show ongoing recent trends for good volume growth, stable margins, and no surprises on costs and credit quality, the analyst explains the outlook commentary is flagged to be more "cautious".

On average, the broker has lowered loan forecasts by around -1% and lifted impairment charges on average by circa 6bps, to around 33%.

National Australia Bank's EPS forecasts are lowered by -3.9% for FY26 and -3.6% for FY27. Target price slips to $39.30 from $39.80.

Underweight Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $39.30 Current Price is $44.52 Difference: minus $5.22 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $41.22, suggesting downside of -5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NUF as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter observes the half-year trading update from Nufarm was positive, with the deleveraging of the balance sheet slightly ahead of expectations.

Net debt, traditionally at a seasonal peak, is expected to be around $1.23bn, which at 3.6x 12-month EBITDA is down materially compared with the prior corresponding first half.

The broker points out the majority of markets appear supportive of reasonable demand levels for crop protection products as the most material selling window for the company approaches. Buy rating. Target is unchanged at $3.60.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.47 Difference: $1.13
If NUF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.23, suggesting upside of 31.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NUF as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie observes the balance sheet of Nufarm is moving in the right direction, with margin recovery across the agricultural chemical business on track and driving growth in first half EBITDA of 17%.

In terms of regions, the broker expects a softer performance in the Asia-Pacific because of dry conditions across Australia, offset by strong growth in Europe amid cost reductions.

Macquarie points out the prospect of stronger agricultural chemical prices is tempered by the favourable farmer environments and remains cautious regarding the elevated debt position. Target edges down to $2.70 from $2.77 and a Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.47 Difference: $0.23
If NUF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.23, suggesting upside of 31.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NUF as Buy (1) -

Nufarm provided first half underlying EBITDA guidance of $239-244m, up 17% at the mid point and slightly higher than Morgans had anticipated. The initial outlook on the second half is also positive and a new $50m cost reduction program has been announced.

Given the rise in active ingredient and fish oil prices, prior FY26 guidance could prove to be conservative, while improved operating conditions, a new management team and greater financial discipline mean strong earnings growth should be delivered over coming years, the broker adds.

Morgans also expects the industry will continuue to consolidate and would not be surprised if Nufarm was a target. Buy rating. Target rises to $4.05 from $3.20.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $2.47 Difference: $1.58
If NUF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.23, suggesting upside of 31.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QAN as Buy (1) -

Post Qantas Airways' market update following the start of the war in the Middle East, Citi downgrades its target price to $10.40 from $12.10 while retaining a Buy rating.

As anticipated, the analyst states fuel costs for 2H26 are rising to a guided -$3.1bn to -$3.3bn, which infers a circa three month impact from higher refining margins as the oil is largely hedged.

Management is lowering domestic capacity by around -500bps and increasing 2H26 revenue per average seat passenger (RASK) in both domestic and international markets.

Citi estimates a circa -$440m pre-tax impact on earnings, with the key question being whether higher fuel costs will continue into FY26.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $9.09 Difference: $1.31
If QAN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.83, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QAN as Buy (1) -

UBS updates its forecasts for Qantas Airways to reflect recent fuel price volatility, with higher oil prices expected to materially increase near-term fuel costs.

FY26-FY27 earnings forecasts are lowered to incorporate elevated fuel expenses, partly offset by hedging, fare increases and capacity adjustments, while longer-term impacts are expected to be more modest.

Despite the near-term headwinds, UBS views the disruption as temporary and highlights Qantas’ improved resilience, supporting its ability to navigate volatility.

UBS retains a Buy rating and lowers its target to $11.25 from $11.60.

This is a summary of UBS research released yesterday.

Target price is $11.25 Current Price is $9.09 Difference: $2.16
If QAN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.83, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects 73.5mt of Pilbara production/shipments in Rio Tinto's first quarter update. The main issue will be any skew from guidance, as the company previously stated full year expectations for 323-338mt were intact following the immediate impact of Cyclone Narelle.

A mixed result is anticipated for copper, with Escondida likely to beat expectations and OT/Kennecott slightly lower.

The potential impact of higher fuel prices and FX on costs will also be a key point to watch, the broker adds. Outperform. Target is steady at $183.

Target price is $183.00 Current Price is $173.82 Difference: $9.18
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $167.33, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SDR as Buy (1) -

SiteMinder has announced the extension of Demand-plus and C-plus assistants, which does not surprise the Citi analyst and is viewed as aligning with the "fragmented" industry structure for hotel distribution.

The one standout is the unexpected partnership with DirectBooker to facilitate the distribution of AI assistants and is designed to bypass "channel conflict" with OTAs.

The broker expects gross profit per booking to remain similar to existing Demand-plus bookings.

Buy rated with a $6.60 target.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $3.09 Difference: $3.51
If SDR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 114% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.35, suggesting upside of 121.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VEA as Outperform (1) -

In a flashnote update, Macquarie highlights a fire has broken out at Viva Energy's Geelong refinery, with firefighters expecting to extinguish the blaze possibly by the middle of today.

The cause has been identified as a possible leak somewhere and the impact, the analyst explains, has largely been to petrol and avgas production, with diesel and jet fuel continuing to be produced, although at lower levels for some time.

The earnings impact is expected to be between three weeks to three months based on past refinery fires globally, and Macquarie assumes a reduction in production for the next three weeks of -50%, which could equate to a circa -3% impact on 2026 net profit after tax forecasts.

Outperform. Target $3.50.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: $0.97
If VEA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.91, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VGN as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes Virgin Australia has reiterated FY26 guidance despite rising jet fuel prices, supported by a strong hedging position that limits cost increases.

The broker highlights 93% crude hedging and 71% coverage of refining margins, resulting in only a 7% fuel cost increase versus a much larger impact for peers.

Capacity growth has been reduced, while higher airfares and tight supply are driving stronger revenue per average seat kilometer outcomes, effectively offsetting fuel cost pressures.

The balance sheet remains solid, although leverage is expected to rise modestly with fleet investment.

Forecast EPS is broadly unchanged for FY26 but lowered for FY27-FY28, with the target price cut to $3.80 from $4.00. No change to Buy rating.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $2.52 Difference: $1.28
If VGN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.83, suggesting upside of 45.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VGN as Buy (1) -

UBS updates its Virgin Australia forecasts to reflect recent fuel price volatility, with higher oil prices expected to increase near-term costs.

While FY26-27 earnings forecasts are lowered, the impact is less severe than for Qantas Airways ((QAN)), the analysts highlight, due to Virgin’s higher level of fuel hedging. Longer-term impacts are expected to be modest.

Commentary suggests the disruption will be temporary and highlights Virgin’s attractive valuation and strong domestic exposure, supporting its growth outlook.

UBS retains a Buy rating and lowers its target to $4.10 from $4.25.

This is a summary of UBS research released yesterday.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $2.52 Difference: $1.58
If VGN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.83, suggesting upside of 45.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Underweight (5) -

Due to an expected weaker economic outlook, Morgan Stanley has downgraded loan growth expectations and loan loss forecasts for the banks.

While the reporting season is anticipated to show ongoing recent trends for good volume growth, stable margins, and no surprises on costs and credit quality, the analyst explains the outlook commentary is flagged to be more "cautious".

On average, the broker has lowered loan forecasts by around -1% and lifted impairment charges on average by circa 6bps, to around 33%

Westpac's EPS forecasts are lowered by -2% for FY26 and -1.2% for FY27. Target price is unchanged at $34.40.

Underweight. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $34.40 Current Price is $40.69 Difference: minus $6.29 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.08, suggesting downside of -12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WBC as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes Westpac’s 1H26 update on April 14 included higher provisioning, softer net interest margins and stronger-than-expected cost control. Overall, the outcome was slightly below the analysts' earnings expectation.

The broker highlights stable core margins, solid lending and deposit growth, and improved asset quality, though market-related income and currency headwinds have weighed on performance.

Provisions have been increased to reflect a weaker economic outlook and new overlays, indicating a more cautious stance.

UBS retains a Neutral rating and $40 target.

This is a summary of UBS research released yesterday.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $40.69 Difference: minus $0.69 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.08, suggesting downside of -12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates XRO as Buy (1) -

UBS lowers its target for Xero to $127 from $174 but re-iterates its Buy rating, highlighting continued momentum in subscriber growth and contributions from Melio ahead of the 2H26 result.

The broker points to upcoming catalysts, including FY27 revenue and earnings guidance, Melio performance and resilience in SME demand despite macro uncertainty.

While potential AI disruption is an an overhang, Xero is considered relatively well positioned, with strong growth and attractive valuation versus global SaaS peers.

This is a summary of UBS research released yesterday.

Target price is $127.00 Current Price is $75.10 Difference: $51.9
If XRO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $149.08, suggesting upside of 82.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources