Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AEL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes from its 2026 conference that Amplitude Energy continues to deliver strong operational performance, with Orbost running above nameplate and earnings trending higher into 2H26.

The broker highlights a clear growth pathway, targeting production of 110+TJ/d by 2028, supported by expansion at Orbost and Otway developments.

Improving gas pricing, with contracted price increases and legacy contract roll-offs are expected to support realised pricing over time.

The analyst notes successful cost reduction initiatives at Orbost and retains an Outperform rating, viewing recent share price weakness as overdone. Target $2.80.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: $1.11
If AEL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 66% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.80, suggesting upside of 67.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AGL as Neutral (1) -

Macquarie reports management at AGL Energy has used its presentation at the Macquarie conference to increase guidance at the midpoint for FY26 underlying net profit to $610-680m from $580-680m.

The new midpoint is $645m and compares to Macquarie's estimate of $641m and consensus at $646m, the broker reports.

According to the report, AGL has called out strong conditions for the next three months during the fuel crisis from the Middle East conflict, with current diesel storage near capacity for generation assets.

Management also expects ongoing supply as an essential services provider. Data centres are seen as added growth opportunity, also increasing the need for batteries.

Macquarie remains cautious on the FY27-FY28 outlook for AGL Energy as the broker anticipates softer electricity pricing coming through while legacy contracts come to an end.

Neutral. Target $9.34.

Target price is $9.34 Current Price is $9.43 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.87, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AIA as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley revisits its HALO (Heavy Asset Low Obsolescence) framework, highlighting the Australian Infrastructure and Utilities sector as relatively defensive in a high inflation and volatile energy environment.

The broker notes inflation-linked revenues support resilience for assets such as toll roads and pipelines, although higher fuel prices and interest rates pose downside risks to traffic and passenger volumes.

Energy security and fuel availability are seen as emerging considerations, with potential rationing flagged as a valuation risk.

Morgan Stanley prefers Cleanaway Waste Management in the space, while Aurizon Holdings remains least preferred.

Equal-weight rating for Auckland International Airport with a target of NZ$8.67. Industry View: In-Line.

Current Price is $6.89. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $7.26, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Aristocrat Leisure's game performance remains strong, according to Bell Potter, with titles continuing to rank highly in North America. This strength is seen as supporting positive near-term growth across premium leased and core segments.

New franchise launches have delivered solid early performance, while flagship titles such as Phoenix Link continue to outperform, the analysts point out.

Industry conditions are considered supportive, with US casino operators reporting stable demand and manageable impacts from higher fuel costs, despite some moderation in gaming revenue growth.

Bell Potter retains a Buy rating with a reduced target price of $61.00, down from $70.00, due to FX headwinds and higher investment, partially offset by stronger A&NZ shipments and digital uptake.

Target price is $61.00 Current Price is $47.88 Difference: $13.12
If ALL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $63.67, suggesting upside of 34.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALX as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley revisits its HALO (Heavy Asset Low Obsolescence) framework, highlighting the Australian Infrastructure and Utilities sector as relatively defensive in a high inflation and volatile energy environment.

The broker notes inflation-linked revenues support resilience for assets such as toll roads and pipelines, although higher fuel prices and interest rates pose downside risks to traffic and passenger volumes.

Energy security and fuel availability are seen as emerging considerations, with potential rationing flagged as a valuation risk.

Morgan Stanley prefers Cleanaway Waste Management in the space, while Aurizon Holdings remains least preferred.

Equal-weight rating for Atlas Arteria with a target of $4.71. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $4.71 Current Price is $4.79 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If ALX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.67, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANN as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley assesses oil-linked risks in the Australian Healthcare sector, identifying Ramsay Health Care and Sonic Healthcare as the most exposed to cost inflation driven by higher oil prices.

Oil now presents a cost headwind for the sector, increasing component, consumables and freight expenses.

Lower margins and limited pricing power amplify earnings sensitivity for Ramsay and Sonic, the analysts explain. ResMed and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare are viewed as best positioned, supported by higher margins and stronger pricing power.

Equal-weight rating maintained for Ansell. Target reduced to $29.30 from $34.40. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $29.30 Current Price is $25.71 Difference: $3.59
If ANN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.49, suggesting upside of 33.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates APA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes from its 2026 conference that APA Group continues to advocate for a national gas reservation policy, although limited policy clarity has emerged to date.

The broker highlights strong fundamentals for gas storage and generation, with long-duration, lower-cost solutions driving demand and near-term opportunities emerging in WA and QLD.

The strategic importance of the Beetaloo Basin, with potential to support LNG backfill and deliver material long-term value was highlighted.

Outperform. Target $10.41.

Target price is $10.41 Current Price is $10.46 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If APA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.67, suggesting downside of -17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ARB as Neutral (3) -

The latest April new car sales data reinforces the challenging industry backdrop ARB Corp continues to face, Citi details.

The pick-up, chassis cab and 4x4 volumes fell -15% bringing the 2026 year-to-date decline to -7% y/y and underperformed overall vehicle sales which lifted 3%. Medium SUVs rose 35% which are not usually ARB accessory vehicles, the analyst states.

The broker believes an investor day may assist the market in understanding how management is dealing with the challenges against an ongoing decline in the share price.

Target $22.05. Neutral.

Target price is $22.05 Current Price is $17.99 Difference: $4.06
If ARB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.42, suggesting upside of 50.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ARB as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett points out, while Australian new vehicle sales increased 2.2% in April, supported by record EV sales, ARB Corp's key vehicles continued to decline.

Key vehicle sales targeted by the company for its 4WD accessories fell -14.8% in April with the two largest selling vehicles the Toyota Hilux and Ford Ranger experiencing declines of -31.2% and -9.2%, respectively.

Longer term the outlook remains positive, the broker contends, but inconsistent manufacturer supply and elevated fuel prices may weigh on demand for the company's Australian aftermarket products in the near-term. Buy rating maintained with a $31 target.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $17.99 Difference: $13.01
If ARB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.42, suggesting upside of 50.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ARF as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes from its 2026 conference Arena REIT remains comfortable with FY26 guidance, supported by full occupancy, CPI-linked leases and high hedging levels.

The broker highlights strong income resilience, with 95% of leases linked to inflation and structured to limit exposure to construction cost pressures.

Notably, conditions in childcare are mixed, with some softness in occupancy but improving operator outlook and limited earnings impact from isolated tenant issues.

Outperform. Target $3.90.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.30 Difference: $0.6
If ARF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.87, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AX1 as Buy (1) -

Morgans found the trading update from Accent Group "soft", with guidance revised lower as well as disclosure of an ASIC insider trading investigation.

The Middle East conflict has resulted in higher fuel prices and lower consumer confidence and this has in turn impacted sales and margins.

The company will hold its investor briefing on May 13 to provide an update on strategy, growth priorities and the medium-term financial framework.

It has received notices from ASIC requiring documents in connection with an investigation into trading in securities between May 23 and June 10, 2025.

No charges have yet been made and ASIC has confirmed the notice is not an indication of a breach.

Morgans revises earnings estimates lower to bring them in line with the revised guidance range of $79.5-84.5m for FY26 EBIT. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $0.75 from $0.94.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.225
If AX1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.66, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AZJ as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley revisits its HALO (Heavy Asset Low Obsolescence) framework, highlighting the Australian Infrastructure and Utilities sector as relatively defensive in a high inflation and volatile energy environment.

The broker notes inflation-linked revenues support resilience for assets such as toll roads and pipelines, although higher fuel prices and interest rates pose downside risks to traffic and passenger volumes.

Energy security and fuel availability are seen as emerging considerations, with potential rationing flagged as a valuation risk.

Morgan Stanley prefers Cleanaway Waste Management in the space, while Aurizon Holdings remains least preferred.

Underweight rating for Aurizon Holdings with a target of $3.50. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: minus $0.67 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.63, suggesting downside of -12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BWP as Buy (1) -

In a flash update Citi notes BWP Trust has announced a 1-for-12 entitlement offer to raise around $228m for its $163m pipeline.

BWP has notably outperformed the Australian real estate sector year to date, which relates to the relative cost of capital the analyst believes, and its ability to raise capital closer to NTA.

The analyst views the trust as offering defensive retail exposure, which is considered as "attractive" in the current environment.

Buy. Target $4.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.94 Difference: $0.06
If BWP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.97, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CEN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes from its 2026 conference that Contact Energy has transformed its portfolio to 98% renewables, positioning the group to benefit from a forecast step change in New Zealand electricity demand.

The broker highlights a strong pipeline capable of capturing a disproportionate share of load growth, with committed and potential projects supporting up to circa 55% of new generation through to 2031.

The company's cost advantage, with geothermal, wind and solar projects among the lowest cost options, alongside the ability to fund growth without additional equity is viewed positively.

Outperform retained with an unchanged NZ$11.20 target.

Current Price is $8.49. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CHC as Outperform (1) -

Management at Charter Hall has used the Macquarie conference to once again express its confidence in FY26 guidance, the broker reports.

That guidance, the broker reminds, was upgraded in February.

Management has equally expressed ongoing confidence in prime offices. Management views Charter Hall as countercyclical and thinks there could be good buying opportunities, Macquarie reports.

Charter Hall sees suburban markets as more exposed to AI risks and has been selling such assets.

Outperform. Target $20.71.

Target price is $20.71 Current Price is $20.14 Difference: $0.57
If CHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.56, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CPU as Buy (1) -

Computershare reiterated its FY26 EPS guidance around US$1.44 on constant currency which includes marginally more margin income on higher balances and rates with slightly lower earnings (EBIT) margin, Citi notes.

The analyst explains the difference is relatively small so no changes are made to earnings forecasts at this stage.

Management continues to highlight the company is "well placed" to deal with the development of market tokenisation, including the recent agreement with a leading tokenisation company.

Buy rated. Target $37.60.

Target price is $37.60 Current Price is $31.26 Difference: $6.34
If CPU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.84, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

Computershare has confirmed it remains on track for FY26 EPS guidance of 144c per security, implying 6% growth.

UBS notes key business segments continue to perform in line with expectations and with limited visibility on the employee share plan trading, where March/April are critical months, the update has provided additional comfort that earnings remain robust.

The longer term overhang is around the potential impact of the tokenisation of equities and blockchain technology. UBS retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $33.00 from $32.75.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $31.26 Difference: $1.74
If CPU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.84, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley assesses oil-linked risks in the Australian Healthcare sector, identifying Ramsay Health Care and Sonic Healthcare as the most exposed to cost inflation driven by higher oil prices.

Oil now presents a cost headwind for the sector, increasing component, consumables and freight expenses.

Lower margins and limited pricing power amplify earnings sensitivity for Ramsay and Sonic, the analysts explain. ResMed and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare are viewed as best positioned, supported by higher margins and stronger pricing power.

Overweight rating maintained for CSL. Target reduced to $198 from $215. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $198.00 Current Price is $124.41 Difference: $73.59
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $198.76, suggesting upside of 60.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CWY as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley revisits its HALO (Heavy Asset Low Obsolescence) framework, highlighting the Australian Infrastructure and Utilities sector as relatively defensive in a high inflation and volatile energy environment.

The broker notes inflation-linked revenues support resilience for assets such as toll roads and pipelines, although higher fuel prices and interest rates pose downside risks to traffic and passenger volumes.

Energy security and fuel availability are seen as emerging considerations, with potential rationing flagged as a valuation risk.

Morgan Stanley prefers Cleanaway Waste Management in the space, while Aurizon Holdings remains least preferred.

Overweight rating for Cleanaway Waste Management with a target of $2.91. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $2.91 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.71
If CWY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.96, suggesting upside of 36.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DBI as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reports Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure management at its conference has re-iterated clear focus on shareholder returns, stating no intention to retain value from incremental revenue.

Apparently, management views share buybacks unfavourably, preferring to provide a steady, growing distribution.

Franking is likely to recommence in 1Q27 after tax benefits of recent debt refinancing costs are fully utilised by 4Q26.

Outperform. Target $5.39.

Target price is $5.39 Current Price is $5.44 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If DBI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.65, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DXS as Neutral (3) -

Citi details the commentary from Dexus' March quarter update which points to "stable" operational performance across its portfolio.

Management highlights macro headwinds are expected for FY27 with a higher interest rate backdrop and a largely negligible contribution from trading profits and performance fees.

Office occupancy rose to 93.1% from 92.2% in the prior quarter and industrial remained stable at circa 97%.

FUM increased by $670m post Dec with total year to date capital raised over $1.75bn. The REIT also announced a strategic logistics development partnership with Boral ((SGH)) for the development of a precinct at Ravenhall.

Neutral. Target $7.80.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $6.09 Difference: $1.71
If DXS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.99, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DXS as Outperform (1) -

Dexus management has used the Macquarie conference to affirm guidance for FY26, but with a warning that FY27 will be more challenging given an immaterial contribution from performance fees and trading profits.

A new partnership was announced with Boral ((SGH)).

Dexus is focused on releasing and redeploying circa $8bn of capital into more capital-efficient structures. Macquarie reports this involves divesting non-core assets and redeploying proceeds into a share buyback alongside growth opportunities.

Regarding the potential impact from AI on office assets, management has stated quality office will become more valuable while suburban office is more likely to be disrupted.

Dexus has divested the majority of its assets in these locations.

Outperform. Target $6.91.

Target price is $6.91 Current Price is $6.09 Difference: $0.82
If DXS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.99, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DXS as Underweight (5) -

Dexus reiterated FY26 adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) guidance of 44.5cpu-45.5cpu and a 37cpu distribution, with operational performance broadly stable, Morgan Stanley highlights. Improved office occupancy is also noted.

The broker highlights a strategic shift toward balance sheet repositioning, with asset sell-downs required to fund capital redeployment and any meaningful buyback activity. Execution of the buyback is now dependent on further divestments.

Management flagged FY27 as a more challenging year, with limited trading profits and performance fees expected, suggesting to the analysts downside risk to current market forecasts.

Underweight. Target $6.47. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $6.47 Current Price is $6.09 Difference: $0.38
If DXS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.99, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EDV as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie notes from its 2026 conference that Endeavour Group faces a challenging retail backdrop, with cost-of-living pressures weighing on consumer sentiment.

The broker highlights a clear divergence between Dan Murphy's and BWS, with Dan's focused on value and range and willing to lead on pricing, implying potential near-term margin pressure in a highly promotional environment.

The Hotels division has under-invested but is offering significant opportunity, with resilient demand for experiential spending supporting dining and drinking out, alongside a continued strategic role for gaming machines.

The broker notes the group's 12-month focus is on returning Retail to its value roots while unlocking growth in Hotels through capex initiatives ranging from minor upgrades to full redevelopments.

Underperform. Target $3.40.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.27 Difference: $0.13
If EDV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.46, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EDV as Lighten (4) -

Endeavour Group provided a March quarter trading update that fell short of expectations while the real concern Ord Minnett has is over the rapidly deteriorating outlook for both demand and costs.

The stock slumped -3.8% post the update, with the broker pointing out slowing momentum in hotels occurred as cost pressures meant consumers stayed "on the couch at home".

What the broker found interesting was that the company has invested -$400m to boost inventory and minimise risk from potential supply chain disruptions emanating from the Middle East war.

This will weigh on earnings because of the increase in interest expense. Ord Minnett retains a $2.90 target and Lighten rating.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $3.27 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If EDV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.46, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ELD as Outperform (1) -

Elders management has used the Macquarie conference to communicate sowing has commenced across WA, SA & VIC with good starts in WA & VIC.

North NSW is dry, leading to increased cattle run-off and reduced expectations for winter harvest in those regions. Overall, conditions mark a much better start to the winter crop versus the past two years, on the company's assessment.

New CEO Rene Dedoncker starts early October.

Outperform. Target $8.50.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.07 Difference: $1.43
If ELD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.38, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ELD as Neutral (3) -

UBS expects a "solid" first half result from Elders, supported by favourable livestock markets and improved operating conditions where there has been a subdued performance in the last fiscal year. The broker forecasts first half revenue of $1.826bn and underlying EBIT of $90m.

The focus is on trading conditions and commentary, particularly across NSW and Queensland, given the drought and whether these conditions will require recalibration of expectations.

The broker will also look for updates on the Delta integration and synergies. Another area of focus is the livestock market amid volatile pricing. Neutral rating and $7.30 target unchanged. The broker transfers coverage to William Park.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $7.07 Difference: $0.23
If ELD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.38, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FLT as Buy (1) -

While noting Flight Centre Travel retained guidance, a positive for now, the fog of war creates uncertainty for the consumer and future earnings, Citi explains.

The analyst assumes no growth in leisure for earnings estimates in 2H26 and FY27 while corporate is expected to pick up market share which supports growth at the top line.

Target price slips to $14.15 from $16.75. Buy rated.

Target price is $14.15 Current Price is $10.59 Difference: $3.56
If FLT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.63, suggesting upside of 46.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FLT as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes from its 2026 conference Flight Centre has maintained full-year guidance, with strong corporate performance offsetting disruption in the Leisure segment from recent geopolitical events.

The broker highlights resilient trading overall. For the nine months to March, TTV rose 7.6% y/y with underlying profit before tax up 9.7%. Management is noted for closely watching the Middle East war which has impacted Leisure by -$10m.

Corporate is stable, alongside ongoing cost discipline and productivity gains supporting margins.

The broker notes strategic initiatives in AI and loyalty, retaining an Outperform rating despite near-term uncertainty in Leisure.

Target $17.95.

Target price is $17.95 Current Price is $10.59 Difference: $7.36
If FLT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.63, suggesting upside of 46.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FLT as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights a strong 3Q performance from Flight Centre Travel, with profit (PBT) up 18.5% year-on-year, supporting FY26 guidance of $315m-$350m.

Guidance is achievable despite global uncertainty, given the implied 4Q requirement appears realistic to the broker, with potential upside if May and June trading is solid.

Corporate continues to lead, the analysts highlight, delivering strong profit growth and operating leverage, while leisure remains softer, impacted by Middle East tensions.

Commentary notes a stronger Australian dollar poses a potential FX headwind into Q4.

Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating and a $16.00 target. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $10.59 Difference: $5.41
If FLT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.63, suggesting upside of 46.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FLT as Buy (1) -

Flight Centre Travel has maintained FY26 earnings guidance for FY26 net profit of $315-350m, up 9%-21% on FY25, despite the disruptions in international travel patterns from the conflict in the Middle East, which is having a significant impact on leisure travel.

The reiteration of guidance was better than Morgans feared, while concerns remain for the key trading period of May-June. It remains likely guidance will be revised as the broker expects leisure demand to remain weak and its forecasts now sit well below guidance.

There may be a lack of near term catalysts, yet Morgans asserts patient investors should be well rewarded when the travel industry rebounds. Buy. Target is reduced to $14.55 from $18.05.

Target price is $14.55 Current Price is $10.59 Difference: $3.96
If FLT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.63, suggesting upside of 46.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reports Fortescue's presentation at its conference explained more about the velocity of change afoot inside the business to drive cost out via diesel substitution, but also deliver potential external sources of revenue.

Operations are committed to deliver to the technical capacity limit of 205mtpa and potentially beyond to licence limit of 210mtpa. AI integration with operations will be a key enabler, according to management.

Also, Fortescue is applying its infrastructure development playbook to renewables, including automated solar installation and wind tower innovations to reduce foundations and civil costs.

Outperform. Target $22.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $20.02 Difference: $1.98
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.88, suggesting downside of -3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FPH as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley assesses oil-linked risks in the Australian Healthcare sector, identifying Ramsay Health Care and Sonic Healthcare as the most exposed to cost inflation driven by higher oil prices.

Oil now presents a cost headwind for the sector, increasing component, consumables and freight expenses.

Lower margins and limited pricing power amplify earnings sensitivity for Ramsay and Sonic, the analysts explain. ResMed and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare are viewed as best positioned, supported by higher margins and stronger pricing power.

Overweight rating maintained for Fisher & Paykel Healthcare. Target falls to NZ$40 from NZ$44.20. Industry View: In-Line.

Current Price is $29.95. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FPR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes updated electric vehicle (EV) fringe benefits tax guidance by the Federal Government provides long-term clarity for the novated leasing sector, with incentives transitioning to a permanent -25% discount.

The broker highlights a phased reduction in benefits from April 2027, although affordability advantages remain for the novated channel, supporting ongoing customer growth.

The changes also create an incentive for earlier adoption ahead of step-downs, the analysts note.

In the near term, it's believed demand could strengthen as consumers bring forward purchases, supported by policy clarity and elevated fuel prices.

For McMillan Shakespeare, Smartgroup Corp and FleetPartners Group, this structurally extends the runway for new customer acquisition, particularly as customers are incentivised to bring forward purchases ahead of changes to EV incentives.

Unchanged Overweight rating and $3.60 target for FleetPartners Group. Industry view In-Line.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.37 Difference: $1.23
If FPR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.45, suggesting upside of 35.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GPT as Buy (1) -

On initial assessment of today's market update by GPT Group, Citi observes strong operational momentum, with portfolio occupancy at 97.5% and solid leasing activity across all segments.

Guidance for FY26 funds from operations (FFO) growth of around 4% and a 24.5c distribution was reiterated.

Retail remains a standout, in the broker's view, supported by high occupancy and steady sales growth, while logistics continues to perform strongly.

Ongoing funds management momentum is noted, with a $610m equity raise reinforcing capital-light growth initiatives.

Citi retains a Buy rating, noting GPT trades at a discount to net tangible assets (NTA). Target is $6.00. Buy.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.82 Difference: $1.18
If GPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.44, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GPT as Outperform (1) -

Updating the outlook for GPT Group from its 2026 conference, Macquarie notes management remains comfortable with FY26 FFO guidance, with potential rate headwinds expected to be offset by underlying performance and cost control.

The broker highlights continued capital interest, with transaction activity expected to increase and strong demand evident in the oversubscribed GWSCF equity raise.

Opportunities across sectors, particularly in retail, remain, alongside growing engagement from offshore investors.

Leasing at Grosvenor Place is progressing and the group has a cautious approach to development, the broker suggests, while maintaining a focus on disciplined capital allocation. Outperform. Target $4.97.

Target price is $4.97 Current Price is $4.82 Difference: $0.15
If GPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.44, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GTK as Buy (1) -

Gentrack Group has materially downgraded FY26 guidance for revenue and earnings, reflecting a strategic shift toward prioritising growth over near-term profitability, Bell Potter explains. Margins are now expected to compress significantly.

Earnings are now expected between NZ$13.5m-NZ$20m versus consensus of NZ$34.3m, implying to the analysts a midpoint margin of 7.2% compared to consensus of 13.5%.

The broker flags risks to future earnings, with project (NRR) revenue declining year-on-year, suggesting weaker pipeline conversion and potential delays or lost tenders. Concerns are therefore raised around the ability to sustain ARR growth over time.

Bell Potter cuts its target price to $5.60 from $8.80 but retains a Buy rating, citing structural growth tailwinds despite near-term execution challenges.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $2.61
If GTK meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 87% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.31, suggesting upside of 104.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GTK as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley highlights a material downgrade from Gentrack Group, with FY26 revenue and earnings (EBITDA) guidance cut by around -8% and more than -50%, respectively.

While recurring revenue remains stable, the weakness appears concentrated in non-recurring project revenue, the broker explains, with limited detail provided on divisional performance or pipeline progress.

Management reiterated medium-term margin targets of 15%-20% and announced a NZ$20m buyback.

Equal-weight rating, $7.70 target and In-Line industry view.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $4.71
If GTK meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 158% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.31, suggesting upside of 104.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IFT as Buy (1) -

Following up on the subsequent conference call with management at Infratil (see the news below), Citi analysts report it was reiterated there is no need for a capital raising.

More CDC announcements should be expected when Infratil reports its financial result on May 26.

Management also highlighted mid-teens overall returns from its CDC investment, while development returns are higher.

Earlier Citi responded as follows:

Citi highlights Infratil announced the CDC business, of which it owns around a 50% stake, has achieved Australia's largest data center contract at 555MW which takes contracted capacity to over 1GW.

The analyst observes the contract is with a US-based high-end investment customer for 10-years with renewal options of up to 20-years. Capacity is expected to come on stream over FY28-FY29.

Debt funding is expected to be used with no equity raisings for Infratil anticipated. Citi sees upside to earnings (EBITDA) forecasts.

Citi retains a Buy rating and $12.34 target.

Target price is $12.34 Current Price is $10.50 Difference: $1.84
If IFT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.82, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IFT as Outperform (1) -

Infratil has announced that CDC Data Centres, in which it holds a 49.7% interest, has signed a 555MW contract with a US customer. The 10 year contract represents the largest data centre contract signed in Australia and 40% of the total existing operating capacity in the country.

New FY27 capital expenditure guidance of NZ$4bn is up from NZ$2bn in FY26.

Macquarie assesses there are a number of positive catalysts in the wind and maintains an Outperform rating and NZ$13.63 target.

Current Price is $10.50. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $11.82, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JBH as Buy (1) -

In a flash update, Citi points to no surprises for JB Hi-Fi's 3Q26 trading update which was broadly in line with consensus and 2H26 expectations.

JB Hi-Fi Australia's like-for-like sales growth of 2.6% aligned with the January 2.4% growth and the analyst's 2H26 estimate of 2.5% growth.

The Good Guys like-for-like sales were also as expected at 2.5% growth while JB Hi-Fi NZ's like-for-like sales growth slipped to 15.2% from 16.7% in the January trading update.

Cost rises were noted by suppliers while the retail backdrop remains uncertain and competitively challenging. Citi does not expect "material" earnings changes compared to consensus forecasts.

For JB Hi-Fi, target of $85. Buy.

Target price is $85.00 Current Price is $77.87 Difference: $7.13
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $88.46, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LNQ as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter highlights further strong drilling results from Linq Minerals' Dam deposit, extending the high-grade gold-copper core and reinforcing resource growth potential.

The latest hole intersected a broad, high-grade zone, extending strike length to around 400m, with mineralisation remaining open.

The broker highlights ongoing drilling success continues to build scale and consistency, with additional assays pending that could further expand the deposit and act as near-term catalysts.

Bell Potter sees the project as undervalued relative to peers and maintains a Speculative Buy rating with an unchanged $0.90 target.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.51
If LNQ meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 131% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTR as Neutral (3) -

Liontown Resources outlined what Macquarie calls a step change in financial performance at its 2026 conference, marking the first self-funded quarter since production commenced.

Underground operations continue to outperform, reaching a 1.5mtpa run-rate ahead of schedule and tracking closer to circa 1.6mtpa, with a two-quarter consolidation phase planned before ramping to 2.8mtpa by end-FY27.

Operational metrics are also improving, with recoveries rising to around 70% in April from 61% in 3QFY26, while AISC of $1,251/t remains within guidance and set to benefit from scale efficiencies.

The broker noted growth remains a key focus, with a 4mtpa brownfield expansion study underway and FID targeted for end-Q1 FY27.

Neutral. Target $2.20.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.39 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting downside of -12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LYC as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes from its 2026 conference that Lynas Rare Earths is progressing its production ramp-up, currently operating just above 8ktpa with a pathway to 10.5ktpa, although the target run-rate will take time to achieve.

The broker highlights ongoing ramp-up constraints at Kalgoorlie, with material handling bottlenecks and carbonation circuit challenges limiting throughput, though management is working through these issues.

Macquarie points to a strategic focus on energy solutions and downstream processing, with complexity concentrated in separation rather than mining, alongside a shift toward long-term contracts and floor pricing to support more stable market conditions.

Neutral. Target $20.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $18.57 Difference: $1.43
If LYC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.77, suggesting downside of -7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MMS as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes updated electric vehicle (EV) fringe benefits tax guidance by the Federal Government provides long-term clarity for the novated leasing sector, with incentives transitioning to a permanent -25% discount.

The broker highlights a phased reduction in benefits from April 2027, although affordability advantages remain for the novated channel, supporting ongoing customer growth.

The changes also create an incentive for earlier adoption ahead of step-downs, the analysts note.

In the near term, it's believed demand could strengthen as consumers bring forward purchases, supported by policy clarity and elevated fuel prices.

For McMillan Shakespeare, Smartgroup Corp and FleetPartners Group, this structurally extends the runway for new customer acquisition, particularly as customers are incentivised to bring forward purchases ahead of changes to EV incentives.

Unchanged Overweight rating and $19.00 target for McMillan Shakespeare. Industry view In-Line.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $16.68 Difference: $2.32
If MMS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.45, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NGI as Buy (1) -

Navigator Global Investments will acquire the 17 managers in the Stable Growth portfolio for US$195m, comprising scrip of US$96m and the balance in cash. The company expects the transaction will be accretive to EPS in the low double digits.

Ord Minnett considers the economics of the deal attractive and forecasts 11% accretion in FY27, post the capital raising. The broker continues to be attracted to the company's investment case and retains a Buy rating, raising the target to $3.60 from $3.50.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.63 Difference: $0.97
If NGI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.46, suggesting upside of 28.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWH as Outperform (1) -

From its 2026 conference, Macquarie notes NRW Holdings has reaffirmed FY26 guidance, supported by strong tender activity and a growing pipeline across key segments.

The broker highlights a substantial opportunity set, with active tenders rising to $11.9bn and total pipeline expanding to $27.3bn, underpinning medium-term growth.

The company is seeing solid momentum across divisions, including growth in Mining and EMIT, alongside improving margins and a shift toward more capital-light contracts.

The broker notes confidence in replacing MET project roll-offs and ongoing M&A discipline, with organic growth remaining the primary focus.

Target $6.90. Outperform.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $6.41 Difference: $0.49
If NWH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.63, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PNI as Buy (1) -

Pinnacle Investment Management delivered a third quarter update that underperformed expectations, while Ord Minnett acknowledges the $9.4bn in flows was robust.

The company will take a further 6.8% stake in Metrics for -$100.5m, which the broker considers is a strong endorsement by management of the performance and growth outlook for the business.

Target is raised to $22.10 from $21.80. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $22.10 Current Price is $16.21 Difference: $5.89
If PNI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.79, suggesting upside of 33.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PNR as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter highlights a tough March quarter for Pantoro Gold, with production of 17.8koz at a cost (AISC) of -$3,204/oz, below the run-rate required to meet FY26 guidance. Disruptions from flooding, equipment downtime and operational transitions impacted output.

Despite this, strong cash flow was generated, supported by high realised gold prices. A debt-free balance sheet has been maintained alongside an active buyback.

The broker sees elevated risk to the outlook, with a strong June quarter required to meet guidance amid ongoing operational changes.

Bell Potter retains a Hold rating and lowers its target price to $3.55 from $4.20.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.16 Difference: $0.39
If PNR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.49, suggesting upside of 68.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QAL as Outperform (1) -

Qualitas has reiterated FY26 guidance for net profit of $60-66m and EPS at 13.9-15.3c per security, with Macquarie's estimates located at the mid point.

The company has addressed a number of private credit concerns directly and stressed the key difference between the Australian and US market in that it invests solely in real estate with no corporate lending exposure here compared with US private credit which often includes corporate lending.

Deployment levels continue to be strong, with the company reporting $3.7bn in the year to date, equivalent to 48% growth in the prior corresponding period. Macquarie transfers coverage to Elizabeth Miliatis from David Pobucky and reiterates an Outperform rating with a target of $4.16.

Target price is $4.16 Current Price is $2.51 Difference: $1.65
If QAL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 66% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QAN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes from its 2026 conference that Qantas Airways is benefiting from reduced international capacity into Australia, supporting strong demand and load factors across key long-haul routes.

The broker highlights resilient travel demand, with management continuing to see travel as the top discretionary spend priority.

Macquarie points to an agile response to higher fuel costs, alongside confidence in fuel supply and a consistent hedging strategy.

Fleet strategy and AI-driven efficiency initiatives remain key earnings drivers. Outperform. Target $11.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $8.39 Difference: $2.61
If QAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.83, suggesting upside of 26.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QUB as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley revisits its HALO (Heavy Asset Low Obsolescence) framework, highlighting the Australian Infrastructure and Utilities sector as relatively defensive in a high inflation and volatile energy environment.

The broker notes inflation-linked revenues support resilience for assets such as toll roads and pipelines, although higher fuel prices and interest rates pose downside risks to traffic and passenger volumes.

Energy security and fuel availability are seen as emerging considerations, with potential rationing flagged as a valuation risk.

Morgan Stanley prefers Cleanaway Waste Management in the space, while Aurizon Holdings remains least preferred.

Equal-weight rating for Qube Holdings with a target of $5.15. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: $0.15
If QUB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.17, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RHC as Outperform (1) -

From its 2026 conference Macquarie notes Ramsay Health Care's 2H26 trading is in line with expectations, supported by steady procedural demand growth in Australia.

The broker highlights a focus on higher-complexity procedures and improved utilisation across major hospitals, alongside stable staffing and recent EBA agreements.

Ongoing engagement with private health insurers on pricing is highlighted, while digital and AI initiatives are expected to support efficiency over time.

The broker notes stable operations in the UK and progress on the Ramsay Santé separation, as management focuses on strengthening the core Australian business. Outperform. Target $43.40.

Target price is $43.40 Current Price is $37.37 Difference: $6.03
If RHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.86, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RHC as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley assesses oil-linked risks in the Australian Healthcare sector, identifying Ramsay Health Care and Sonic Healthcare as the most exposed to cost inflation driven by higher oil prices.

Oil now presents a cost headwind for the sector, increasing component, consumables and freight expenses.

Lower margins and limited pricing power amplify earnings sensitivity for Ramsay and Sonic, the analysts explain. ResMed and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare are viewed as best positioned, supported by higher margins and stronger pricing power.

The target for Ramsay Health Care falls to $32.90 from $35.60. Underweight rating. In-Line industry view.

Target price is $32.90 Current Price is $37.37 Difference: minus $4.47 (current price is over target).
If RHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $39.86, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RMD as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley assesses oil-linked risks in the Australian Healthcare sector, identifying Ramsay Health Care and Sonic Healthcare as the most exposed to cost inflation driven by higher oil prices.

Oil now presents a cost headwind for the sector, increasing component, consumables and freight expenses.

Lower margins and limited pricing power amplify earnings sensitivity for Ramsay and Sonic, the analysts explain. ResMed and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare are viewed as best positioned, supported by higher margins and stronger pricing power.

Overweight rating and US$286 target retained for ResMed. Industry View: In-Line.

Current Price is $29.57. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $43.21, suggesting upside of 50.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RMS as Buy (1) -

Ramelius Resources delivered gold production of 38,100 ounces at AISC of $2,211/oz in the March quarter, which was lower than the prior quarter because of a planned 6-day mill shutdown and the impact of Cyclone Narelle.

Cost guidance has been revised up to $1,900-$2,050/oz, predominantly because of a reclassification of Never Never development costs from growth to sustaining capital, and as such this is not a structural cost blowout, Morgans explains.

Ore mined at Dalgaranga increased significantly, with the majority of the 49,000t at 3.49 g/t stockpiled on-site pending haulage to Mount Magnet. Buy rating retained with the target lowered to $6.10 from $6.21.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $3.35 Difference: $2.75
If RMS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.28, suggesting upside of 54.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RRL as Neutral (3) -

Regis Resources and Vault Minerals ((VAU)) have agreed to a merger with Vault shareholders receiving 0.6947 new Regis shares. This implies to Citi a price of $4.97 per share, or a circa 10.5% premium.

The analyst views the deal as "slightly attractive" at $397/oz or around 6% of spot resource value versus a two-year gold M&A average of around 9%.

Over a longer period, there is a good strategic fit and the merger company will move to the third-largest primary ASX-listed gold producer, the broker states, at over 700koz/pa with a pro forma balance of $1.9bn.

The sell-off in Regis is considered as "overweighting the arithmetic" compared to the scale and growth optionality story.

Neutral. Target $8.10.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $6.75 Difference: $1.35
If RRL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.81, suggesting upside of 37.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RRL as Buy (1) -

Regis Resources and Vault Minerals ((VAU)) have announced a merger of equals to create Australia's third-largest ASX gold producer with more than 700,000 ounces per annum forecast production.

Via a scheme of arrangement Regis Resources would acquire Vault in exchange for 0.6947 shares per Vault share and no cash. UBS observes, individually, the two companies screen among the cheapest and highest yielding mid-cap producers in its coverage.

While synergies seem largely limited to around $500m in tax benefits, the balance sheet and operating position mean the group could fund organic growth and pursue options to extend mine life and improve margins in order to facilitate re-rating.

The broker retains a Buy rating and $8.75 target for Regis Resources.

Target price is $8.75 Current Price is $6.75 Difference: $2
If RRL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.81, suggesting upside of 37.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

Management at South32 has used the Macquarie conference to share more insights on the latest costs and capex blowout, the broker reports (viewing it as a positive).

According to Macquarie's report, the US$3.2bn Real (1 Jan 2026) capex bill is subject to inflation while management outlined circa 80% of the remaining US$2.1bn spend is now locked.

Macquarie analysts comment they anticipate Hermosa will have life extension optionality and possibly debottlenecking potential realised once confidence in execution is re-established.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating, with a $4.50 price target.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.06 Difference: $0.44
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGH as Outperform (1) -

Management at SGH Ltd has reaffirmed FY26 guidance for low to mid-single-digit earnings (EBIT) growth at Macquarie's Australia Conference presentation, alongside a broadly positive update on operations.

Commentary by the broker notes construction demand remains firm, with activity across construction and infrastructure described as above mid-cycle. This activity is being supported by structural housing shortages despite some project delays, the analyst notes.

It's noted fuel cost headwinds linked to the Iran conflict are being actively managed through hedging and surcharges.

Macquarie retains its $50.40 target and an Outperform rating, citing attractive valuation and potential upside from a BlueScope Steel ((BSL)) deal.

Target price is $50.40 Current Price is $40.05 Difference: $10.35
If SGH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $52.13, suggesting upside of 26.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGP as Outperform (1) -

From its 2026 conference, Macquarie highlights Stockland remains confident in achieving FY26 settlement guidance, with timing the key swing factor despite solid underlying sales across both Masterplanned Communities and land lease.

The broker highlights strong demand in WA and QLD, supporting price growth, while noting more mixed conditions in Victoria and emerging affordability constraints.

Cost pressures are viewed as manageable with resilience through portfolio diversification, although higher interest rates present a risk to FY27 volumes.

The broker notes a strategic focus on capital partnerships and portfolio recycling, with increased allocation toward land lease and data centres. Outperform. Target $4.42.

Target price is $4.42 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $0.25
If SGP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.78, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SHL as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

Morgan Stanley assesses oil-linked risks in the Australian Healthcare sector, identifying Ramsay Health Care and Sonic Healthcare as the most exposed to cost inflation driven by higher oil prices.

Oil now presents a cost headwind for the sector, increasing component, consumables and freight expenses.

Lower margins and limited pricing power amplify earnings sensitivity for Ramsay and Sonic, the analysts explain. ResMed and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare are viewed as best positioned, supported by higher margins and stronger pricing power.

The broker lowers its target price for Sonic Healthcare to $20.30 from $24.20 and downgrades to Underweight from Equal-weight, citing risks around German reimbursement changes. In-Line industry view.

Target price is $20.30 Current Price is $19.28 Difference: $1.02
If SHL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.68, suggesting upside of 30.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SIG as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Morgans notes a "solid" trading update from Sigma Healthcare and downgrades to Accumulate from Buy, given recent share price strength.

The company continues its international expansion with entry into the UK market and widening distribution capacity in New Zealand.

Sigma has signed an MOU with Greenlight in the UK to launch the Chemist Warehouse brand via a joint venture in which it will acquire a 75% stake, license the brand and provide retail support.

The broker suspects scaling the model in the fragmented UK market may take time but presents a large opportunity. Minor upgrades are made to forecasts while the valuation eases modestly to $3.30 from $3.36.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $0.38
If SIG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.23, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SIG as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett found several positives in the trading update from Sigma Healthcare including the Australian Chemist Warehouse store sales in the year to date increasing 16.7% with international up 24.7%.

The broker also welcomed the MOU with Greenlight Healthcare that will mean Chemist Warehouse enters the UK market. Greenlight has 22 stores across Greater London with phase 1 of the agreement to focus on five initial stores and Sigma set to acquire a 75% interest in each.

The company has also appeared to entrench its dominance in New Zealand. Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $3.40 from $3.30.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $0.48
If SIG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.23, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SIQ as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes updated electric vehicle (EV) fringe benefits tax guidance by the Federal Government provides long-term clarity for the novated leasing sector, with incentives transitioning to a permanent -25% discount.

The broker highlights a phased reduction in benefits from April 2027, although affordability advantages remain for the novated channel, supporting ongoing customer growth.

The changes also create an incentive for earlier adoption ahead of step-downs, the analysts note.

In the near term, it's believed demand could strengthen as consumers bring forward purchases, supported by policy clarity and elevated fuel prices.

For McMillan Shakespeare, Smartgroup Corp and FleetPartners Group, this structurally extends the runway for new customer acquisition, particularly as customers are incentivised to bring forward purchases ahead of changes to EV incentives.

Unchanged Equal-weight rating and $9.10 target for Smartgroup Corp. Industry view In-Line.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $9.85 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If SIQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.69, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes from its 2026 conference Santos has commenced production from Barossa, with a ramp-up to full output expected by mid-year following resolution of earlier mechanical issues.

The broker highlights significant growth optionality in Alaska, with Pikka first oil imminent and expansion potential supporting a material uplift in long-term production.

Upcoming catalysts include Papua LNG FID later in 2026 and appraisal activity in the Beetaloo, reinforcing the scale of the growth pipeline.

The broker notes Santos remains focused on capital discipline and portfolio optimisation, retaining an Outperform rating ahead of its May investor day on May 26. Target $8.60.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $7.91 Difference: $0.69
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.16, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TAH as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes from its 2026 conference, Tabcorp Holdings sees the wagering environment as defensive, with no trading update provided as usual but strategic initiatives expected to support volumes into FY27.

The broker highlights progress on the national tote rollout, targeting July 2026 completion, with benefits including improved liquidity and more competitive pricing.

Continued product and retail execution, including new terminal deployment and the rollout of TAB Live across venues ahead of the FIFA World Cup.

Management remains focused on disciplined capital allocation and cost transformation initiatives, including the use of AI, while retaining a stable contribution from integrity services. Neutral. Target $1.10.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: minus $0.035 (current price is over target).
If TAH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.12, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TCL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley revisits its HALO (Heavy Asset Low Obsolescence) framework, highlighting the Australian Infrastructure and Utilities sector as relatively defensive in a high inflation and volatile energy environment.

The broker notes inflation-linked revenues support resilience for assets such as toll roads and pipelines, although higher fuel prices and interest rates pose downside risks to traffic and passenger volumes.

Energy security and fuel availability are seen as emerging considerations, with potential rationing flagged as a valuation risk.

Morgan Stanley prefers Cleanaway Waste Management in the space, while Aurizon Holdings remains least preferred.

Equal-weight rating for Transurban Group with a target of $14.18. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $14.18 Current Price is $14.29 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.35, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TLC as Neutral (3) -

Lottery Corp has reached an agreement with the Victorian government for the extension of lotteries license by 40 years to 2068.

Citi notes Lottery Corp will pay -$1.145bn, debt funded for the extension which is considered as "reasonable".

Prior to the announcement, the broker anticipated -$500m for a 20-year license and the NSW lottery licence was acquired for around -$1bn in 2010.

Management also flagged a change in dividend policy to 80%-100% payout of net profit after tax from FY27.

Citi believes the market will like the update and alleviate the overhang on the stock. Investor day is on June 3rd with the possible capital management update.

Target $5.10. Neutral.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $5.57 Difference: minus $0.47 (current price is over target).
If TLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.83, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TLC as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley keeps its $5.70 target for Lottery Corp and downgrades to Equal-weight from Overweight. Industry view: In-Line.

It's felt the Victorian licence renewal strengthens the company's long-term earnings visibility, extending duration and supporting cash flow certainty. The upfront cost is seen as manageable within the existing capital structure.

The license was extended for an additional 40-year term, with a license fee of -$1.145bn, payable in July/October 2026.

On the flipside, near-term trading has been softer than expected by the analysts, with weaker jackpot activity weighing on ticket sales and prompting a downgrade to 2H26 revenue forecasts.

Higher interest and amortisation are expected to impact FY27 earnings, although dividends should remain broadly stable under the revised payout policy.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.57 Difference: $0.13
If TLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.83, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TLC as Buy (1) -

Lottery Corp has won a 40-year extension of its licence in Victoria for a fee of -$1.145bn payable to the Victorian government, which Ord Minnett considers an outstanding achievement given the typical 10-year renewal period.

The early renewal of the licence in Victoria, which makes up around 30% and 20% of lottery revenue and group operating earnings, respectively, has reduced the risk to cash flows over the next few decades, the broker observes.

Ord Minnett reduces EPS estimates by -4.3% FY26 and -12.2% for FY27, largely because of jackpot trends and the removal of digital earnings from Keno. Target is raised to $6.40 from $6.10 and the Buy rating is reiterated.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.57 Difference: $0.83
If TLC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.83, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TLX as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley assesses oil-linked risks in the Australian Healthcare sector, identifying Ramsay Health Care and Sonic Healthcare as the most exposed to cost inflation driven by higher oil prices.

Oil now presents a cost headwind for the sector, increasing component, consumables and freight expenses.

Lower margins and limited pricing power amplify earnings sensitivity for Ramsay and Sonic, the analysts explain. ResMed and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare are viewed as best positioned, supported by higher margins and stronger pricing power.

Overweight rating maintained for Telix Pharmaceuticals. Target reduced to $22.40 from $24.60. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $22.40 Current Price is $15.43 Difference: $6.97
If TLX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.40, suggesting upside of 66.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates UNI as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter highlights "resilient" year-to-date trading for Universal Store, with group retail sales up 14% and solid like-for-like growth across key banners, broadly in line with expectations.

Commentary notes momentum improved in the core Universal Store brand, while wholesale remains a drag, with structural challenges driving further impairment.

FY26 guidance for revenue and earnings (EBITA) was in line with consensus, with margins expected to hold steady and store rollout tracking to plan, the analysts highlight.

Bell Potter retains a Buy rating, lowering its target price to $9.30 from $10.50 on a more conservative valuation multiple.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $7.11 Difference: $2.19
If UNI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.80, suggesting upside of 42.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates UNI as Buy (1) -

In a subsequent follow-up, the broker has responded by slightly reducing forecasts, which pulls back the price target by -14% to $9.80.

Citi analysts explain the reduction in profits is predominantly the result of reduced margin expectations.

Earlier the broker responded as follows:

Citi stresses Buy-rated Universal Store has continued to execute strongly in the latest trading update.

The retailer saw improving momentum in like-for-like sales growth across all three retail banners in the last 10 weeks to April 26 against the first seven weeks of 2H26.

The growth was noted as being partially offset by pressure in wholesale. FY26 sales and earnings (EBITDA) guidance were in line with consensus.

Target $11.40.

Target price is $9.80 Current Price is $7.11 Difference: $2.69
If UNI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.80, suggesting upside of 42.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates UNI as Outperform (1) -

Universal Store is performing well in a weak environment, Macquarie asserts, as it caters to young customers and has a flexible "trend-led" model. The trading update was "strong" with resilient like-for-like sales across key brands.

The young adult customer base is considered less exposed to recent fuel cost pressures and rising interest rates. Macquarie forecasts no margin expansion into FY27, given fuel and freight cost inflation will be most pronounced in the first half.

EBIT for FY26 is revised up 7% given the strong margin performance. Outperform retained. Target is $10.30.

Target price is $10.30 Current Price is $7.11 Difference: $3.19
If UNI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.80, suggesting upside of 42.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates UNI as Buy (1) -

Universal Store delivered a "strong" trading update with sales for the first 43 weeks of FY26 up 14%. Morgans highlights FY26 guidance is for sales of $368-375m which represents 11.5% growth on the prior corresponding period at the mid point.

The broker retains a positive view about the long-term appeal of the business as a retail proposition and investment opportunity.

Perfect Stranger is performing strongly, which has justified an acceleration in the network expansion. Buy rating retained, the target reduced to $9.50 from $9.60.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $7.11 Difference: $2.39
If UNI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.80, suggesting upside of 42.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VAU as Buy (1) -

Vault Minerals and Regis Resources ((RRL)) have announced a merger of equals to create Australia's third-largest ASX gold producer with more than 700,000 ounces per annum forecast production.

Via a scheme of arrangement Regis Resources would acquire Vault in exchange for 0.6947 shares per Vault share and no cash. UBS observes, individually, the two companies screen among the cheapest and highest yielding mid-cap producers in its coverage.

While synergies seem largely limited to around $500m in tax benefits, the balance sheet and operating position mean the group could fund organic growth and pursue options to extend mine life and improve margins in order to facilitate re-rating.

The broker retains a Buy rating and $7.05 target for Vault Minerals.

Target price is $7.05 Current Price is $4.64 Difference: $2.41
If VAU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.35, suggesting upside of 64.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates VCX as Neutral (3) -

Citi liked the operational update for Vicinity Centres' 3Q26 pointing to robust retail sales up 3.4% q/q and speciality sales rising 3.2% q/q.

Ex luxury sales, the analyst notes total portfolio sales advanced 4.1%. The $625m development of Chatswood Chase continues to go well, including the opening of the luxury precinct on April 30.

Another 95% opening is anticipated by June. Occupancy remains at 99.6% with robust leasing spreads of 5.1% and low holdovers of 3.1%.

Management refinanced $655m in debt and reiterated FY26 FFO will be at the top end of guidance.

The broker remains cautious on retail against the possible impacts of the Middle East war. Neutral. Target $2.70.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.56 Difference: $0.14
If VCX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VCX as Neutral (3) -

Vicinity Centres has used the Macquarie conference to re-affirm FY26 guidance and report a strong quarterly performance.

Macquarie reports the REIT is seeing consumers starting to shop down, shifting to mid-price categories. If there is an impact for Vicinity Centres, it won't be seen for 6-9 months, the broker adds, because 90% of the portfolio is driven by fixed rent.

The REIT still sees plenty of interest for assets and expects to sell (and buy) some. Macquarie adds Vicinity Centres acquired one asset every 18 months, with high hurdles required for acquisitions.

Neutral. Target $2.17

Target price is $2.17 Current Price is $2.56 Difference: minus $0.39 (current price is over target).
If VCX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VCX as Underweight (5) -

Vicinity Centres has reiterated FY26 guidance, with funds from operations (FFO) expected at the top end of 15.0cpu-15.2cpu range and adjusted FFO of 12.8cpu-13.0cpu.

Leasing conditions remain strong, Morgan Stanley highlights, with 3Q spreads of over 5.1% and solid sales growth, particularly excluding softer luxury performance.

Development progress is seen as encouraging, with the Galleria project largely leased and on track for a Christmas 2026 opening, while Chatswood Chase redevelopment is nearing full occupancy.

Morgan Stanley maintains an Equal-weight rating and $2.63 target. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.63 Current Price is $2.56 Difference: $0.07
If VCX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VNT as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reports Ventia Services has used its conference to communicate it sees a major growth opportunity in data centres. Management sees the addressable market growing to $5.9bn over the next five years, from $2.6bn currently.

Ventia's EBITDA margins improved to 8.7% in FY25 and management views this as sustainable. Macquarie adds it sees Ventia Services as "defensive" in the current environment.

Outperform. Target $6.45.

Target price is $6.45 Current Price is $5.89 Difference: $0.56
If VNT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.15, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Neutral (3) -

Westpac announced 1H26 cash earnings of $3,483m which was essentially in line with consensus expectations, Citi notes.

Lower revenue was offset by lower costs with a slight miss on the core NIM ex-liquids.

The analyst points to lower costs being able to mitigate the higher spending in 2H26 but questions whether management is sacrificing NIMs for higher growth than peers.

Citi likes the balance sheet strength and points to a relatively full valuation at current levels.

Neutral rating. Target $39.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $37.63 Difference: $1.37
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.68, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WBC as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie, further to the first half report from Westpac, notes there was modest revenue misses across all banks.

Revenue trends were weaker with underlying margins lower. There were few surprises and the broker asserts it appears the best days for the sector are behind us.

Risks are building around slowing volumes from higher rates and a softer economy, alongside more intense competition and deteriorating credit quality.

While Westpac's revenue trends were weaker, this was partially offset by better cost control. Underperform rating and target reduced to $31 from $32.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $37.63 Difference: minus $6.63 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.68, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley highlights softer-than-expected interim revenue growth for Westpac, despite strong loan growth, reflecting pressure from margin compression across divisions. Operating and balance sheet metrics were broadly in line with forecasts by the analysts.

The broker sees emerging risks of an earnings downgrade cycle, with the volume/margin trade-off becoming more apparent and limited scope for cost improvements relative to peers.

While credit quality remains sound, higher provisions and loss rates are expected. Capital is strong, though the analysts note a high payout ratio constrains dividend growth.

Morgan Stanley retains an Underweight rating, citing valuation concerns and a more uncertain outlook. Target lowered by -40c to $34.00. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $37.63 Difference: minus $3.63 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.68, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WBC as Upgrade to Trim from Sell (4) -

Morgans notes strong volume momentum existed in the first half for Westpac but earnings leverage was mitigated by margin compression and credit risk pressure. The bank's FY29 financial targets include reducing the cost-to-income ratio and lifting returns on tangible equity above its peer average.

The first half revenue decline of -2% beat the broker's forecasts while costs also declined -2%, although these are skewed to the second half. The bank has indicated the cost trajectory is improving and increased its FY26 productivity target to more than $550m.

Morgans believes, if Westpac can close the gap in valuation metrics to its larger peer, Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)), then forecast earnings upside could be significant, although this is not without risk. Rating is upgraded to Trim from Sell and the target is $33.07, reduced from $34.06.

Target price is $33.07 Current Price is $37.63 Difference: minus $4.56 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.68, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WBC as Sell (5) -

Westpac has flagged intense competition for home loan and institutional customers in its first half report, which squeezed lending spreads, and Ord Minnett notes the weak outcome was despite overall loan volumes growing strongly.

Costs came in lower than expected, largely because of seasonal factors, with the bank guiding to increased costs in the second half as it lifts IT spending on the Unite project.

While headline growth in the business banking loans of 8% was robust, the composition was underwhelming, Ord Minnett asserts, as the institutional segment, which is a low margin business, rose only 4%.

The broker reduces earnings estimates to incorporate narrower net interest margins and higher costs and re-iterates a Sell rating with a target of $31.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $37.63 Difference: minus $6.63 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.68, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes from its 2026 conference, Woodside Energy's capital allocation framework remains unchanged, with a continued focus on balance sheet strength, disciplined returns and shareholder distributions.

The broker highlights execution across key projects, with Scarborough on track for first cargo in 4Q26 and Trion progressing toward first oil in 2028.

Strong operational performance at Sangomar and a more constructive LNG market outlook, with increasing demand for long-term supply contracts were also noted.

Neutral. Target $33.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $32.71 Difference: $0.29
If WDS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.47, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WES as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes from its 2026 conference, Wesfarmers continues to navigate cost-of-living pressures, with a focus on reinforcing value credentials through price re-investment while underlying demand remains resilient.

The broker highlights innovation at Bunnings, with its new AI assistant driving strong early engagement, higher conversion rates and increased basket sizes.

There is continued strength at Kmart and Health, supported by value-led positioning, supply chain advantages and growing demand across wellness categories.

The broker notes the group's 12-month focus includes growth initiatives such as the Built Living JV, targeting lower-cost, faster residential construction to address housing supply.

Outperform and $92 target.

Target price is $92.00 Current Price is $72.22 Difference: $19.78
If WES meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $78.06, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WOR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reports (from its conference) Worley sees the future rebuilding of energy infrastructure as but a logical opportunity, as is countries' drive to avoid exposure to the Strait of Hormuz.

Worley recently completed its first ever $500m share buyback, but management clearly has more on its mind. According to the broker's report, Worley now considers buybacks a "tool in the toolbox" as part of a broader capital allocation strategy that includes organic investment and acquisitions.

Outperform. Target $13.70.

Target price is $13.70 Current Price is $11.98 Difference: $1.72
If WOR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.92, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates WTC as Buy (1) -

Management at WiseTech Global has reaffirmed FY26 earnings (EBITDA) guidance of US$550m-US$585m and margins of between 40%-41%, broadly in line with Bell Potter's expectations.

The company also introduced underlying earnings guidance of US$598.5m-US$637.5m, implying to the broker higher one-off costs than previously flagged.

Limited clarity is noted on redundancy costs, which are expected to be detailed at the FY26 result.

Bell Potter retains a Buy rating with an unchanged target price of $78.75, with the FY26 result in August a key catalyst.

Target price is $78.75 Current Price is $45.75 Difference: $33
If WTC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $76.79, suggesting upside of 71.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WTC as Outperform (1) -

From the Macquarie conference, the broker reports WiseTech Global does not see a threat in Amazon having launched a standalone logistics offering providing freight, customs clearance, parcel delivery and storage services to third parties, including non-marketplace sellers.

WiseTech counters Amazon's focus remains primarily on domestic & last mile execution.

Macquarie also reports management stated confidence in returning to circa 50% EBITDA margin; potential to exceed depending on execution over 1-2 years.

Macquarie is Outperform rated with a $97.70 target on WiseTech Global.

Target price is $97.70 Current Price is $45.75 Difference: $51.95
If WTC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 114% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $76.79, suggesting upside of 71.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27: