Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates A2M as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley, after hosting an expert call, notes further consolidation of China's infant milk formula market and a normalisation of recall impacts during the rest of 2026 should support the key operators in this area and drive innovation and premiumisation.

Rigorous supply testing of Chinese label products and production issues may have been undertaken after "quiet product recalls in China" and Morgan Stanley suspects the consumer impact could have been greater than anticipated.

Acknowledging the effort being made by a2 Milk Co to fix the issue the expert is constructive on the longer-term market share opportunity. Morgan Stanley points out the main swing factor for the company will be the speed at which it gets product back into the market.

Overweight rating and $9.90 target retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $5.64 Difference: $4.26
If A2M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.10, suggesting upside of 43.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AX1 as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter views Accent Group's Vision 2030 strategy as supportive of longer-term earnings growth, driven by expansion into the more resilient sports category through Sports Direct and The Athlete's Foot.

Planned cost reductions and operational initiatives are expected to materially improve margins from current depressed levels. The timing of any recovery in comparable sales is considered uncertain.

Bell Potter also highlights increased competition in lifestyle footwear and execution risks tied to macroeconomic volatility.

The broker's forecasts are lowered following weaker trading conditions and slower expected sales recovery. Hold rating and target lowered to $0.60 from $0.68.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.05
If AX1 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.65, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BXB as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley continues to like the long-term structural growth story and market position of Brambles. The company has cut FY26 guidance after repair "bottlenecks" emerged across parts of its US network which drove higher supply chain costs and limited pallet availability.

Profit growth guidance has been reduced to 3-5%, reflecting an estimated -US$60m earnings hit. Morgan Stanley reduces FY26 and FY27 EPS estimates by -8% and -5%, respectively.

As the risk/reward now appears more balanced and the stock is unlikely to re-rate until there is greater clarity on the issues, the broker downgrades to Equal-weight from Overweight. Target is lowered to $19 from $28. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $16.40 Difference: $2.6
If BXB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.23, suggesting upside of 31.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CAT as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter views Catapult Sports' FY26 result positively, with earnings, revenue, margins and free cash flow (FCF) all exceeding expectations, although annual contract value growth was broadly in line.

The broker highlights strong operating leverage, with earnings growth materially outpacing guidance and the company approaching the "Rule of 40" benchmark.

The analysts modestly upgrade their forecasts following stronger margins and expect another year of solid growth despite increasingly difficult comparisons as the business scales.

Bell Potter retains a Buy rating and raises its target price to $4.65 from $4.50.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $3.39 Difference: $1.26
If CAT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.16, suggesting upside of 37.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CAT as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes Catapult Sports continues to execute well across its core business as well as recent acquisitions. Growth, along with operating leverage, is tracking ahead of expectations.

The company reported FY26 revenue was up 21% to US$141m with management EBITDA up 67% to US$25m. The broker notes all operating metrics improved and was particularly pleased with the progress made in incorporating the IMPECT and Perch acquisitions.

Morgan Stanley is on the lookout for continued execution across the tactics & coaching segment, with evidence that recent acquisitions can sustain stronger growth over time. Target is raised to $5.20 from $5.00. Overweight rating maintained. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $3.39 Difference: $1.81
If CAT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.16, suggesting upside of 37.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CAT as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett describes Catapult Sports' FY26 result as impressive, with revenue, annual contract value (ACV) and earnings all exceeding expectations. Strong growth in professional teams and higher-value multi-solution customers are noted.

Commentary also points to balanced growth from both new customer wins and upselling existing clients, with organic team additions remaining robust despite recent acquisitions.

The broker sees an accelerating path to profitability as operating leverage and higher-margin product adoption drive margin expansion.

Despite strong growth and improving profitability, the broker believes Catapult continues to trade at an attractive valuation relative to software peers. Buy rating retained. Target price lowered to $3.97 from $4.16.

Target price is $3.97 Current Price is $3.39 Difference: $0.58
If CAT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.16, suggesting upside of 37.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CTD as No Rating (-1) -

Morgan Stanley, in the absence of reliable accounts and insufficient clarity on company financial statements, Corporate Travel Management is not rated and there are no targets or estimates.

The stock has been suspended from the ASX since August 26, 2025 after the company revealed accounting irregularities in its UK operations.

The broker expects the next update on June 30, 2026 and would look to reinstate a rating target and estimates once financial statements are clarified.

Current Price is $16.07. Target price not assessed.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DBI as Buy (1) -

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure announced its TIC for FY26-FY27 of $4.02/t or a rise of around 8% y/y which is in line with Citi's expectations.

The rate represents around 4% inflation in the base component, the analyst states with a circa 75% rise in the NECAP charge (additional tariff to recover returns on approved expansion).

Higher revenue generation allows for a rise in the distributions of 8.5%-plus which is well in excess of inflation and above the upper end of the target range of 3%-7%.

Target price is lifted to $6.10 with a remaining Buy rating.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.49 Difference: $0.61
If DBI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.73, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DBI as Outperform (1) -

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure announced its TIC (Take-or-Pay Infrastructure Charges) revenue for 1Q2026 which was around $2.5m above Macquarie's expectations, which is boosting post tax cash flow by around $1.8m. This will be passed through to dividends.

The TIC for 2026/2027 is $4.02/t against Macquarie's forecast of $3.97/t, which is due to commissioned capex of $98m above estimate of $65m. The analyst highlights this brings forward tick revenue of circa $0.04/t or around $3.4m in revenue.

The broker points to further dividend growth with higher inflation and bond rates, underpinning the 2027 dividend.

EPS forecasts are tweaked higher as is the target price to $5.48 from $5.39. Outperform rated.

Target price is $5.48 Current Price is $5.49 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If DBI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.73, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EBR as Buy (1) -

EBR Systems has signed three major US hospital purchase agreements within a week, covering a combined 325 hospitals. Bell Potter explains this significantly expands the commercial opportunity for its WiSE-CRT cardiac pacing system.

The broker views the agreements as strong validation of the technology and believes they create a pathway for broader physician adoption across high-volume implant centres.

Commentary also notes improving procedural efficiency and lower-than-expected early complication rates as encouraging indicators for commercial rollout.

The broker believes valuation remains attractive ahead of expected sales growth and retains a Buy rating and $2.00 target price.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $0.52 Difference: $1.485
If EBR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 288% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EOS as Speculative Buy (1) -

Electro Optic Systems has increased its recently announced capital raising to $215m from $175m through the addition of a $40m strategic placement to Abu Dhabi-based defence group Calidus.

The expanded funding position is seen as strengthening the company's ability to support MARSS Group (acquired in 2024) growth, develop high-energy laser weapons and advance its Atlas space warfare platform.

The broker sees the strong performance of the MARSS NiDAR system during the current Middle East conflict as continuing to support new order momentum.

The broker retains a Speculative Buy rating and lowers its target price to $11.15 from $11.40.

Target price is $11.15 Current Price is $7.91 Difference: $3.24
If EOS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GMG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights the potential catalysts for Goodman Group it believes will be outlined at the briefing on May 26. While the data centre strategy has been well flagged, progress has been slow.

The last time stock had an earnings upgrade was in FY24 and the broker suspects the market will be watching for any tangible catalysts surrounding this point.

There could be an update on US leasing but larger items such as Tokyo or Europe may not feature, while if delivered, this could be a material positive.

Morgan Stanley believes there is scope to upgrade EPS growth estimates, amid current guidance of 9%, because of transactions occurring since December 2025. Target is $36.15. Overweight rated. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $36.15 Current Price is $30.00 Difference: $6.15
If GMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.42, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IAG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Australian regulators are increasingly focused on AI governance risks across the Financial Services sector.

This follows recent guidance from APRA and ASIC highlighting weaknesses in oversight, cyber resilience and concentration risk.

The broker's industry survey finds most insurers already use multiple AI models rather than relying on a single provider, with Microsoft Copilot and ChatGPT the most widely adopted tools.

Macquarie believes tighter regulation and higher capital requirements for AI-related risks are ultimately inevitable. Managing general agents (MGAs) are seen as potential beneficiaries given their operational flexibility relative to larger incumbents.

MGAs are specialised insurance businesses that sit between insurers and brokers/customers.

Unchanged $9.00 target and Outperform rating for Insurance Australia Group.

Ratings and targets are also unchanged for QBE Insurance ((QBE)) and Medibank Private ((MPL)).

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.14 Difference: $0.86
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.23, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHX as Buy (1) -

In a further update from yesterday's quick take below, Citi views the 4Q26 result as "solid", highlighting some inventory issues with the DR&A (Decking, Railing & Accessories) market.

The issues are flagged to make a difference between the actual and a potentially stronger 1Q27 result.

Management offered guidance around consensus but the analyst emphasises a prolonged war in the Middle East could challenge the outlook. Uncertainty around earnings remains high, albeit the tight guidance range infers conditions might be stabilising.

EPS forecasts are cut by -8.3% for FY27 and -7.3% for FY28.

Target price is lowered to $36.50 from $38. Buy rating retained.

****

James Hardie Industries announced 4Q26 earnings (EBITDA) of around US$381m which came in circa 2% above consensus, Citi notes, with free cash flow at US$314m well above guidance of US$200m.

North America met expectations and rest of the world was better than anticipated, having a positive impact on the group, the analyst explains. Weather impacted decking over the period which will create an inventory unwind situation going into 1Q27.

Sidings and trims sales missed with volumes down -12%. Earnings for A&NZ came in around 14% better than expected due to MSD volume growth and forex translation.

Europe was also slightly better than anticipated. Citi views the result as reasonable at first take.

Buy rating and $38 target.

Target price is $36.50 Current Price is $26.55 Difference: $9.95
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.52, suggesting upside of 32.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JHX as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes James Hardie Industries announced 4Q36 results which were a beat at the earnings (EBITDA) level although guidance was noted as "soft" in the Decking, Railing & Accessories market (DR&A).

The outlook for this market was weak due to around -US$20m in inventory destocking resulting in lower operating leverage.

The analyst liked the cost and operational performance which was viewed as "solid". Management noted cost inflation which will be offset via pricing and internal cost changes.

The outlook statement pointed to a weak but stabilising US market albeit with US war related costs of -US$80m-US$100m.

EPS forecasts are lowered by -9.7% for FY27 and -8.9% for FY28. Target price slips to $39.60 from $41.10. An Outperform retained.

Target price is $39.60 Current Price is $26.55 Difference: $13.05
If JHX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.52, suggesting upside of 32.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Overweight (1) -

James Hardie Industries beat Morgan Stanley's estimates in an initial view of its fourth quarter results, with FY27 adjusted EBITDA guidance of US$1.45-1.5bn provided.

Synergies with Azek are on track and have been reiterated. The company expects a return to organic growth in siding and trim, and an above-market performance in decking.

Overweight rating and $44 target maintained. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $26.55 Difference: $17.45
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 66% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.52, suggesting upside of 32.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JHX as Buy (1) -

James Hardie Industries' FY26 result was broadly in line with market expectations, with growth largely driven by the Azek acquisition while underlying market conditions remain subdued, Morgans observes.

Adjusted earnings of US$381m came in above guidance, the analyst highlights.

Management assumes no housing market recovery in FY27, instead targeting earnings growth through pricing, cost control and synergy delivery.

Siding operations are expected to return to organic growth, while free cash flow (FCF) improvement should support deleveraging.

Morgans believes FY26 represents a financially dilutive transition year, with FY27 likely to mark an inflection point as synergies accelerate and margins recover.

Buy rating maintained. Target falls to $39.00 from $45.75.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $26.55 Difference: $12.45
If JHX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.52, suggesting upside of 32.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JIN as Outperform (1) -

On the back of lower lotteries volumes for Lottery Corp ((TLC)) and assuming the reseller agreement is not renewed, Macquarie values Jumbo Interactive at $7.30 which equates to the levels around the current share price.

The company has been moving to derisk the Lottery Corp reseller renewal which is due August 2030 and is estimated to generate around 55% of FY30 earnings.

EPS forecasts are lowered by -4% for FY26 and -3% for FY27. Target price declines to $10.50 from $14.10 with an Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $6.98 Difference: $3.52
If JIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.96, suggesting upside of 69.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LLC as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett materially downgrades its earnings forecasts for Lendlease Group after revising assumptions around the group's capital release unit (CRU). CRU is responsible for asset divestments as the company refocuses on Australia.

The broker now expects higher CRU-related costs and greater reassignment of expenses to the investments, development and construction division. The impact is a material reduction in the analyst's valuation for the CRU business.

It's felt the market may be underestimating the risks embedded within the CRU portfolio.

The broker cuts its target price to $3.05 from $4.60 and retains a Hold rating.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: $0.01
If LLC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.56, suggesting upside of 52.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as No Rating (-1) -

Morgan Stanley has visited Wodgina, noting Mineral Resources is assessing two options to expand capacity. Production upside exists from higher grades and recoveries while Wodgina is moving to a lower-strip mining phase from a period of elevated pre-strip.

The options include a 30% upgrade existing trains 1-3 with project expenditure of $180-220m or construction of train 4, also adding 30% capacity with expenditure of $230-260m. Both have an 18-month timeline from approval to production and require $130-150m more of supporting investment for power, tailings, camp and water.

The broker is under research restriction for Mineral Resources. No rating or target price. Industry View: Attractive.

Current Price is $67.31. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $71.20, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCK as Neutral (3) -

Citi lowers EPS forecasts for Nick Scali by -2% for FY26 and -9% for FY27, assuming like-for-like sales contract by -2% for FY27 due to higher interest rates and a relatively adverse budget for housing retailers.

The analyst still retains A&NZ gross margin expansion in FY27 but at a lower rate of 15bps-plus, with currency likely to be a tailwind.

Management traditionally does not seek to price discount during times of softer demand, the broker states.

The earnings outlook for the UK forecasts has also been moderated post the DFS update in March, which showed weaker consumer confidence.

Target price is cut by -26% to $14.15 from $19.20, previously. Neutral rated.

Target price is $14.15 Current Price is $13.77 Difference: $0.38
If NCK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.36, suggesting upside of 27.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCK as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie updates the outlook for Nick Scali against a backdrop of rising interest rates and inflationary pressures which are expected to impact on A&NZ like-for-like sales negative for FY27 by around -3% to -4%. Growth is expected to return in FY28.

Looking at Temple & Webster's ((TPW)) recent trading update the online retailer is guarding profits before heavily discounting against a challenging consumer environment.

The analyst's downgraded earnings (EBITDA) forecasts now sit below consensus by -6% for FY27 and -12% for FY28. The broker expects further consensus earnings downgrades despite the shares being down -43% since the interim results.

EPS forecasts have been lowered by -1% for FY26 and -12% for FY27.

Target price is downgraded to $15.30 from $21.60 on multiple compression. Outperform retained.

Target price is $15.30 Current Price is $13.77 Difference: $1.53
If NCK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.36, suggesting upside of 27.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -

Now that MD & CEO Stuart Tonkin is stepping down during 1QFY27, Macquarie notes a 13-year tenure is coming to its end during which significant growth was achieved for Northern Star Resources.

The Board has commenced a formal process to facilitate an orderly transition to a new MD and is considering both internal and external candidates.

The conclusion of Tonkin's tenure will see the commissioning of the KCGM Mill Expansion project during 1QFY27, the broker points out.

Outperform. Target $25.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $19.35 Difference: $5.65
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.79, suggesting upside of 46.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

At the upcoming Investor Day on May 26, Macquarie expects Santos to management to outline its priorities in growth for LNG and backfill as well as Alaska oil.

The energy producer has indicated it is considering lowering capex to de-gear the company and boost dividends with a focus on higher return opportunities overseas. The broker points to PNG, Barossa/Darwin LNG and Alaska oil with Beetaloo the next growth engine.

EPS forecasts are tweaked lower for 2026 and 2027. Target price is lifted 6% to $9.15 with no change to Outperform rating.

Target price is $9.15 Current Price is $8.09 Difference: $1.06
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.22, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TLC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie points out trackable Australian lotteries volumes are down -2% y/y in FY26 year-to-date and they represent circa 90% of Lottery Corp's products.

The decline compares to previous expectations for the analyst of 3% growth with -1% in 1H26 and -3% in 2H26. The Victorian Lottery license renewal is positive but there is no earnings lift as the renewal is on the same terms the analyst explains.

The federal government's reform to the lottery and keno industry reduces the company's earnings (EBITDA) by around -$25m on an annualised basis.

EPS forecasts are cut by -6% for FY26 and -15% for FY27. Based on a discounted cash flow calculation the target price lifts to $5.80 from $5.70. No change in Outperform.

The Investor Day is on June 3.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.17 Difference: $0.63
If TLC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.89, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WJL as Hold (3) -

Morgans describes Webjet Group's FY26 result as weak but in line with guidance, with subdued travel demand and elevated investment weighing on earnings and margins.

FY27 is expected to remain challenging given geopolitical tensions, cost-of-living pressures, lower Virgin Australia ((VGN)) commissions and changes to RBA surcharging regulations.

Morgans also warns there is a risk Qantas Airways ((QAN)) could eventually follow Virgin in reducing online travel agency (OTA) incentives.

The broker's forecast downgrades are significant, reflecting weaker trading conditions and ongoing investment in the business. Hold rating maintained and target lowered to $0.41 from $0.61.

Target price is $0.41 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: minus $0.025 (current price is over target).
If WJL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources