Australian Broker Call

Citi rates ANZ as Buy (1) -

Citi believes proposed housing tax changes will slow Australian credit growth, prompting the broker to reduce its FY27 system credit growth forecast to around 4% from current levels of 8%.

Mortgage credit growth is expected to slow to 3.5%, while business lending moderates to 5%, resulting in modest earnings downgrades of between -1%-4% for the broker's coverage of major banks across FY26-FY28.

Commentary cautions the policy impact compounds an already challenging backdrop of slowing growth, elevated credit risk and pressure on net interest margins.

Citi prefers ANZ Bank among the majors, followed by National Australia Bank and Westpac, while retaining a Sell rating on CommBank due to valuation concerns and housing market exposure.

The target for ANZ Bank falls to $39.25 from $40. Buy maintained.

Target price is $39.25 Current Price is $34.27 Difference: $4.98
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.52, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AX1 as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise survey flags a resilient, albeit selective, consumer with expenditure shifting towards essentials, value and convenience.

Grocery remains the clear positive expenditure category and value-seeking is intensifying with Aldi gaining share and private labels remaining a major trading-down beneficiary.

The main shift the broker observes is that consumers are no longer simply cutting back but are actively switching or trading down as well as changing where they shop.

Discretionary retailers remain exposed to deferral risk of promotional pressure, the broker adds. Underweight rating with a target price of $0.55 for Accent Group. Industry View: Cautious.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.61 Difference: minus $0.055 (current price is over target).
If AX1 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.65, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BGA as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise survey flags a resilient, albeit selective, consumer with expenditure shifting towards essentials, value and convenience.

Grocery remains the clear positive expenditure category and value-seeking is intensifying with Aldi gaining share and private labels remaining a major trading-down beneficiary.

The main shift the broker observes is that consumers are no longer simply cutting back but are actively switching or trading down as well as changing where they shop.

Health-led consumption remains a consumer priority, the broker adds. Overweight and $6.70 target for Bega Cheese. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $5.43 Difference: $1.27
If BGA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.54, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Citi believes proposed housing tax changes will slow Australian credit growth, prompting the broker to reduce its FY27 system credit growth forecast to around 4% from current levels of 8%.

Mortgage credit growth is expected to slow to 3.5%, while business lending moderates to 5%, resulting in modest earnings downgrades of between -1%-4% for the broker's coverage of major banks across FY26-FY28.

Commentary cautions the policy impact compounds an already challenging backdrop of slowing growth, elevated credit risk and pressure on net interest margins.

Citi prefers ANZ Bank among the majors, followed by National Australia Bank and Westpac, while retaining a Sell rating on CommBank due to valuation concerns and housing market exposure.

The target for CommBank falls to $135 from $140. Sell maintained.

Target price is $135.00 Current Price is $160.48 Difference: minus $25.48 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $123.40, suggesting downside of -23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise survey flags a resilient, albeit selective, consumer with expenditure shifting towards essentials, value and convenience.

Grocery remains the clear positive expenditure category and value-seeking is intensifying with Aldi gaining share and private labels remaining a major trading-down beneficiary.

The main shift the broker observes is that consumers are no longer simply cutting back but are actively switching or trading down as well as changing where they shop.

Coles Group is in the prime seat as a food and value-exposed retailer, the broker notes. Overweight retained with a $24 price target. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $22.61 Difference: $1.39
If COL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.86, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CQR as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights resilient Australian retail property fundamentals in the March quarter, with vacancy at 4.7%, below the ten-year average of 5.1%, alongside rising rents and strong transaction activity.

Retail transactions reached $2.4bn in the quarter following a record $13.7bn in 2025.

The broker expects discretionary spending to remain supported by budget measures adding around $6bn to household disposable income in FY27, despite increasingly value-conscious consumers.

While retail REITs trade near historical valuation averages, Citi views the sector as more resilient than office, industrial and residential property amid current housing and interest rate risks.

In retail, Citi prefers Scentre Group, citing CPI-plus-2% rent escalation mechanisms and occupancy supported by favourable demand-supply dynamics.

The rating for Charter Hall Retail REIT is Buy and the target $4.50. Commentary notes this REIT offers defensive exposure to convenience retail, which could prove more resilient should consumer conditions weaken further.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.74 Difference: $0.76
If CQR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett takes a closer look at Vifor, the nephrology division of CSL, which is facing challenges that, the broker believes, are still being underestimated by the broader market.

The broker's estimates for revenue and operating profit for the segment in FY27 are below consensus by -15% and -32%, respectively.

The business will be hurt by losing exclusivity for Injectafer, used to treat iron deficiency anaemia, as generics will enter the US market from July.

Its Velphoro therapy, used to control phosphorus levels in the blood of patients with chronic kidney disease, will be taken off the US federal government's transitional drug add-on payment adjustment from January 2027.

Ord Minnett cuts EPS estimates for CSL by -1.2% for FY27 and -0.9% for FY28. Target is unchanged at $117. Hold rating.

Target price is $117.00 Current Price is $99.47 Difference: $17.53
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $129.94, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EDV as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise survey flags a resilient, albeit selective, consumer with expenditure shifting towards essentials, value and convenience.

Grocery remains the clear positive expenditure category and value-seeking is intensifying with Aldi gaining share and private labels remaining a major trading-down beneficiary.

The main shift the broker observes is that consumers are no longer simply cutting back but are actively switching or trading down as well as changing where they shop.

Alcohol remains structurally soft, the broker adds. Equal-weight for Endeavour Group. Target is $3.20. Industry View: Cautious.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.97 Difference: $0.23
If EDV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.11, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FCL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews the outlook for Fineos Corp after competitor Guidewire delivered third quarter results and upgraded FY26 guidance. Fineos Corp trades at around 3.4x EV/sales which represents a -59% discount to Guidewire at 8.3x.

The company's software growth of 7.5% to December 2025 compares with Guidewire subscription/license revenue growth of 25% to April 2026.

All up, the broker notes the company is trading at a material discount to Guidewire while its medium-term revenue mix targets imply an acceleration versus current forecasts.

Outperform retained with an unchanged target of $3.50.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $1.3
If FCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates FRS as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter points out the proposed acquisition of Zenith Minerals ((ZNC)), a WA-based gold and lithium explorer, by Forrestania Resources in an off-market scrip takeover.

The analyst believes the deal is highly strategic for Forrestania as it brings an important tenement within its existing hub infrastructure and close to its British Hill and Lady Lila deposits.

A further 0.7Moz represents a sizeable increase to Forrestania's resource base, which aligns with management's M&A strategy for growth.

A Speculative Buy rating is retained, with a lower target of $1.15 from $1.25.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: $0.645
If FRS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 128% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GQG as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans keeps its Accumulate rating for GQG Partners but cuts its 12-month target price to $1.64 from $1.92, after lowering FY26/FY27 EPS forecasts by -1%-5%.

The broker notes May FUM fell -2% to $163.3bn, with net outflows of -$1.9bn, worse than March and April but still improved from the heavier January/February redemptions.

The key issue, the broker argues, is that outflows appear to be stabilising around -$1.5bn to -$2.0bn per month, but investment performance remains volatile.

May's investment performance was -$1.9bn, reversing April’s positive $5.7bn, while calendar year-to-date FUM is broadly flat because positive market movements have offset -$12bn in net outflows.

Morgans sees a return to positive net flows as the main catalyst, but notes the asset manager's underweight exposure to AI/tech remains a performance headwind.

Target price is $1.64 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: $0.185
If GQG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.87, suggesting upside of 28.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HLO as Buy (1) -

Helloworld Travel has lowered FY26 earnings (EBITDA) guidance to $57m-$62m from $64m-$72m previously due to disruption from the Middle East conflict.

Morgans expects uncertainty, constrained airline capacity, higher airfares and booking mix changes to weigh on earnings through 1H27.

Positively, management reported low double-digit growth in September quarter forward bookings.

The broker lowers its FY26-FY28 earnings forecasts by -10%, -9% and -5%, respectively, but believes the market is overlooking Helloworld's recovery potential. Morgans retains a Buy rating and target of $2.23, down from $2.58.

Target price is $2.23 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: $0.875
If HLO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HVN as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise survey flags a resilient, albeit selective, consumer with expenditure shifting towards essentials, value and convenience.

Grocery remains the clear positive expenditure category and value-seeking is intensifying with Aldi gaining share and private labels remaining a major trading-down beneficiary.

The main shift the broker observes is that consumers are no longer simply cutting back but are actively switching or trading down as well as changing where they shop.

Discretionary retailers remain exposed to deferral risk and promotional pressure, the broker adds. Equal-weight rating retained for Harvey Norman. Target is $4.70. Industry View: Cautious.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.56 Difference: $0.14
If HVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.24, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JBH as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise survey flags a resilient, albeit selective, consumer with expenditure shifting towards essentials, value and convenience.

Grocery remains the clear positive expenditure category and value-seeking is intensifying with Aldi gaining share and private labels remaining a major trading-down beneficiary.

The main shift the broker observes is that consumers are no longer simply cutting back but are actively switching or trading down as well as changing where they shop.

Discretionary retailers remain exposed to deferral risk and promotional pressure, the broker adds. Underweight rating for JB Hi-Fi. Target is $66.50. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $66.50 Current Price is $73.45 Difference: minus $6.95 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $84.91, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MGR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley points out the housing outlook remains a focus for investors and there are several areas of debate.

The broker believes proposed tax changes to negative gearing and capital gains fundamentally shift the investment case for property in Australia and expects a -5-10% decline in national house prices.

The broker points out there has been a significant skew to housing over equities over the past few decades, and this may reverse.

NSW has the lowest rental yields and highest investor share while other states may start looking more like Victoria where rental yields have already risen.

Even after a correction, Morgan Stanley adds, house prices would still look elevated versus peers in other economies.

Unchanged Equal-weight rating and $2.05 target for Mirvac Group. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: $0.37
If MGR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.99, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MI6 as Speculative Buy (1) -

Minerals 260 announced drilling results from its 100%-owned Bullabulling Gold Project, which will be incorporated into the next mineral resource estimate, expected in August, from 83 new holes totalling 19,073m.

The analyst points out the results confirmed the grade and continuity of mineralisation, with high-grade zones identified below existing pit shells.

A definitive feasibility study is due in early 2027.

No change to the Speculative Buy rating or $1.35 target.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $0.77 Difference: $0.585
If MI6 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.24, suggesting upside of 67.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MYR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise survey flags a resilient, albeit selective, consumer with expenditure shifting towards essentials, value and convenience.

Grocery remains the clear positive expenditure category and value-seeking is intensifying with Aldi gaining share and private labels remaining a major trading-down beneficiary.

The main shift the broker observes is that consumers are no longer simply cutting back but are actively switching or trading down as well as changing where they shop.

Discretionary retailers remain exposed to deferral risk and promotional pressure, the broker adds.

The price target for Myer is $0.55. Overweight. Industry View: Cautious.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.305
If MYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 124% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes proposed housing tax changes will slow Australian credit growth, prompting the broker to reduce its FY27 system credit growth forecast to around 4% from current levels of 8%.

Mortgage credit growth is expected to slow to 3.5%, while business lending moderates to 5%, resulting in modest earnings downgrades of between -1%-4% for the broker's coverage of major banks across FY26-FY28.

Commentary cautions the policy impact compounds an already challenging backdrop of slowing growth, elevated credit risk and pressure on net interest margins.

Citi prefers ANZ Bank among the majors, followed by National Australia Bank and Westpac, while retaining a Sell rating on CommBank due to valuation concerns and housing market exposure.

The target for National Australia Bank falls to $36.75 from $37.40. Neutral rating maintained.

Target price is $36.75 Current Price is $35.96 Difference: $0.79
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.64, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NEM as Buy (1) -

Citi remains bearish on gold after the metal closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since September 2023. The broker lowers its 0-3 month price target to US$4,000/oz from US$4,300/oz.

The broker argues current prices require unusually strong physical buying, well above historical levels, and warns demand could weaken if the Strait of Hormuz disruption persists. In that scenario, Citi estimates gold could retreat towards US$3,500/oz.

While retaining a constructive long-term view, the analysts believe near-term risks remain skewed to the downside and caution against buying the dip without a strong conviction on geopolitical de-escalation.

Buy rating and target of $215 for Newmont Corp.

Target price is $215.00 Current Price is $141.68 Difference: $73.32
If NEM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $203.00, suggesting upside of 48.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Neutral (3) -

Citi remains bullish on lithium despite recent price weakness, which the broker attributes to rising Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) inventories and improved supply responsiveness. Ongoing uncertainty around near-term demand is also noted.

While the recent lithium price sell-off triggered stop-losses on Citi's lithium hydroxide and carbonate trade recommendations launched in May, the broker believes most of the downside has now occurred.

The analysts expect prices to consolidate before recovering, supported by restocking ahead of the August-September peak season and another round of export front-loading.

Neutral rating and $5.25 target for PLS Group.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $5.86 Difference: minus $0.61 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.81, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PWR as Buy (1) -

Peter Warren Automotive delivered a trading update that was weaker than Ord Minnett expected, with guidance for underlying pre-tax profit for FY26 in the range of $12-15m.

The downgrade has been attributed to a rapid shift in customer demand as a result of higher fuel prices, interest-rate increases and cost of living pressures.

As a result, there are also fewer high-margin vehicles being sold amid a preference for smaller more fuel-efficient vehicles. The rapid change in demand has also affected vehicle availability and the timing of deliveries.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating on valuation grounds and reduces the target to $1.20 from $2.00.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $0.305
If PWR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.34, suggesting upside of 54.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QAL as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Citi initiates coverage of Qualitas with a Buy rating. The business is seen as a compelling way to access Australia's expanding private credit market through a scaled institutional platform trading at an attractive valuation.

The broker highlights an established position in commercial real estate lending, built as banks retreated from the sector, supported by institutional capital, strong borrower relationships and execution capability.

The analysts forecast an around 30% fee-earning funds under management (FUM) compound annual growth rate (CAGR), aided by a healthy transaction pipeline and supportive housing policy initiatives.

Despite these growth drivers, commentary notes the stock trades around -30% below historical multiples, offering re-rating potential.

A $4.00 target is set.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.54 Difference: $1.46
If QAL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 50.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates REA as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS is the second broker to flag rising risks to REA Group's near-term volumes due to the recent property tax changes. The analyst now forecasts a decline in volumes of around -10%, cumulatively, for FY27-FY28.

This equates to the tightening cycle experienced in FY18-FY19. Notably, volumes have slipped by a CAGR of -1.5% "structurally", UBS states, since FY13, while the only substantial house price fall occurred in FY18-FY19 during a macroprudential tightening cycle, the Banking Royal Commission.

UBS now expects house prices to fall by around -3% to -5% in the next year and reduces volume growth to -8% from flat.

REA Group is downgraded to Neutral from Buy, with a lower target of $165 from $213. EPS estimates are cut by -8% for FY27 and -11% for FY28.

Target price is $165.00 Current Price is $152.58 Difference: $12.42
If REA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $195.26, suggesting upside of 30.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RFF as Buy (1) -

Abares' recent report shows a rise in livestock property values of 9% y/y and 15% y/y in cropping values, with a -1% decline y/y in orchard land values.

Bell Potter also notes Bendigo Bank's agricultural land values report showed 3% y/y growth across Australia, with Queensland up 6% y/y and NSW up 4% y/y.

The analyst also notes Rural Funds shareholders approved both tranches of the increase in the guarantee from major shareholder J&F Investments, being a $28m increase in tranche 1 and a further $40m in tranche 2, subject to the sale of $80m in assets.

A Buy rating is retained. Bell Potter highlights the expanded guarantee offsets the impact of higher interest rates. The target remains $2.50.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.98 Difference: $0.525
If RFF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RGN as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights resilient Australian retail property fundamentals in the March quarter, with vacancy at 4.7%, below the ten-year average of 5.1%, alongside rising rents and strong transaction activity.

Retail transactions reached $2.4bn in the quarter following a record $13.7bn in 2025.

The broker expects discretionary spending to remain supported by budget measures adding around $6bn to household disposable income in FY27, despite increasingly value-conscious consumers.

While retail REITs trade near historical valuation averages, Citi views the sector as more resilient than office, industrial and residential property amid current housing and interest rate risks.

In retail, Citi prefers Scentre Group, citing CPI-plus-2% rent escalation mechanisms and occupancy supported by favourable demand-supply dynamics.

The rating for Region Group is Buy and the target $2.60. Commentary notes this REIT offers defensive exposure to convenience retail, which could prove more resilient should consumer conditions weaken further.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $0.33
If RGN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.44, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SCG as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights resilient Australian retail property fundamentals in the March quarter, with vacancy at 4.7%, below the ten-year average of 5.1%, alongside rising rents and strong transaction activity.

Retail transactions reached $2.4bn in the quarter following a record $13.7bn in 2025.

The broker expects discretionary spending to remain supported by budget measures adding around $6bn to household disposable income in FY27, despite increasingly value-conscious consumers.

While retail REITs trade near historical valuation averages, Citi views the sector as more resilient than office, industrial and residential property amid current housing and interest rate risks.

In retail, Citi prefers Scentre Group, citing CPI-plus-2% rent escalation mechanisms and occupancy supported by favourable demand-supply dynamics. The rating is Buy and the target $4.40.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: $0.68
If SCG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGM as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reassesses its view on Sims after a strong run up in the stock.

The broker expects the earnings contribution from SLS to be sustained and services and geographic growth along with high operating leverage should offset a decline in share of revenue as the commercial model matures.

Metals appear strong, both ferrous and nonferrous, while the company is expected to capitalise on generally favourable trading conditions, in North America in particular.

Macquarie also believes a debate on the strategic structure of the company is likely to mount but at this stage the status quo "makes sense". Outperform rating retained. Target rises to $31.90 from $22.80.

Target price is $31.90 Current Price is $28.11 Difference: $3.79
If SGM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.48, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGP as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley points out the housing outlook remains a focus for investors and there are several areas of debate.

The broker believes proposed tax changes to negative gearing and capital gains fundamentally shift the investment case for property in Australia and expects a -5-10% decline in national house prices.

The broker points out there has been a significant skew to housing over equities over the past few decades, and this may reverse.

NSW has the lowest rental yields and highest investor share while other states may start looking more like Victoria where rental yields have already risen.

Even after a correction, Morgan Stanley adds, house prices would still look elevated versus peers in other economies.

Equal-weight rating and $4.90 target for Stockland. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $3.86 Difference: $1.04
If SGP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.75, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SIG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise survey flags a resilient, albeit selective, consumer with expenditure shifting towards essentials, value and convenience.

Grocery remains the clear positive expenditure category and value-seeking is intensifying with Aldi gaining share and private labels remaining a major trading-down beneficiary.

The main shift the broker observes is that consumers are no longer simply cutting back but are actively switching or trading down as well as changing where they shop.

Health-led consumption remains a consumer priority, which benefits Sigma Healthcare, the broker adds. Target is $3.20. Overweight. Industry View: Cautious.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $0.28
If SIG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.29, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SM1 as Hold (3) -

Synlait Milk's trading update revealed a net loss of -NZ$12m for January to April 2026, which includes Bell Potter's estimated profit from the sale of the North Island site for NZ$21m.

As the update spans reporting periods, the analyst believes it is difficult to determine an estimated run rate for 2H26, although most of the losses appear to have been incurred in January and were flagged in the 1H26 result.

Management also announced Bright Dairy has approved a replacement facility for its NZ$130m loan, which was originally approved in July 2024. The analyst notes the facility is for two years on the same terms.

Earnings (EBITDA) forecasts are downgraded by -57% for FY26, off a low base, the broker states, and by -8% for FY27. The Hold rating is unchanged, with a lower target of 38.5c from 42c.

Target price is $0.39 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.03
If SM1 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.39, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUL as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise survey flags a resilient, albeit selective, consumer with expenditure shifting towards essentials, value and convenience.

Grocery remains the clear positive expenditure category and value-seeking is intensifying with Aldi gaining share and private labels remaining a major trading-down beneficiary.

The main shift the broker observes is that consumers are no longer simply cutting back but are actively switching or trading down as well as changing where they shop.

Discretionary retailers remain exposed to deferral risk and promotional pressure, the broker adds. Underweight and $10.90 target retained for Super Retail. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $10.90 Current Price is $11.63 Difference: minus $0.73 (current price is over target).
If SUL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.45, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TEA as Buy (1) -

On June 2, Tasmea announced it had agreed to acquire Victorian electrical contractor Maxim Group for up to $254m.

The deal expands exposure to data centres, battery energy storage systems and infrastructure, while reducing reliance on resources, Morgans explains.

It's believed the transaction will be around 31% earnings accretive and lift the Electrical division's earnings (EBIT) above $100m.

Incorporating the acquisition, the broker increases its FY27 and FY28 EPS forecasts by 30% and 34%, respectively.

Morgans retains a Buy rating and lifts its target to $9.15 from $5.25.

Target price is $9.15 Current Price is $8.18 Difference: $0.97
If TEA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TNE as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Bell Potter downgrades TechnologyOne to Hold from Buy, with no change to earnings forecasts and a higher target price of $34.25 from $32.25. The stock is considered to offer "reasonable" value at 66x FY26 PE and 55x FY27 PE.

The company is viewed as one of the best SaaS businesses on the ASX, but at current pricing its valuation is almost double that of WiseTech Global ((WTC)).

The analyst also highlights an absence of near-term catalysts to drive the share price higher, with no change to FY26 guidance expected.

The next catalyst may come at the FY26 result in November, when TechnologyOne may exceed its ARR guidance.

Target price is $34.25 Current Price is $32.56 Difference: $1.69
If TNE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.07, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates VCX as Neutral (3) -

Citi highlights resilient Australian retail property fundamentals in the March quarter, with vacancy at 4.7%, below the ten-year average of 5.1%, alongside rising rents and strong transaction activity.

Retail transactions reached $2.4bn in the quarter following a record $13.7bn in 2025.

The broker expects discretionary spending to remain supported by budget measures adding around $6bn to household disposable income in FY27, despite increasingly value-conscious consumers.

While retail REITs trade near historical valuation averages, Citi views the sector as more resilient than office, industrial and residential property amid current housing and interest rate risks.

In retail, Citi prefers Scentre Group, citing CPI-plus-2% rent escalation mechanisms and occupancy supported by favourable demand-supply dynamics. The rating is Buy and the target $4.40.

Neutral rating for Vicinity Centres. Target $2.70. The REIT is benefiting from strong rental growth, Citi explains, with additional earnings support from accretive development projects and capital recycling into higher-growth opportunities

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.50 Difference: $0.2
If VCX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VEA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews its forecasts for Viva Energy, noting the Geelong refinery RCCU unit is likely to be back online in coming weeks after the fire, and the company could take the opportunity to update the market.

Unlike competitor Ampol ((ALD)), the broker does not expect Viva Energy to have made material trading gains in the second quarter, yet it may deliver the best refining half in four years, despite the fire, given its ability to capture middle distillate cracks.

In terms of convenience, Macquarie points out fuel margins may have been strong but tobacco sales are weak and consumer sentiment has softened, while the OTR roll-out has slowed as the company reviews its strategy.

Outperform rating with the target lifted to $3.40 from $3.30.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.28 Difference: $1.12
If VEA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.87, suggesting upside of 25.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VEE as Speculative Buy (1) -

Management at Veem has reported improved trading in 2H26, driven by higher Defence revenue from fulfilling Australian Submarine Corporation (ASC) orders and a recovery in propulsion sales.

FY26 revenue guidance of $50m-$52m was slightly below Morgans' expectations, but earnings (EBITDA) guidance of $3.25m-$3.75m materially exceeded forecasts due to improved operational efficiencies.

Commentary observes Veem has completed a 1,000sqm factory expansion and commissioned a government-supported 3D printer to support future growth across defence, propulsion and engineering.

Morgans lifts its FY26 earnings forecast by 140% to $3.6m and increases its target to $0.85 from $0.80. Morgans maintains a Speculative Buy rating.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.54 Difference: $0.315
If VEE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VEE as Accumulate (2) -

Veem appears set to finish FY26 with positive momentum, Ord Minnett observes, as its trading update provided a clear inflection in earnings and the second half is expected to deliver a meaningful recovery.

This is driven by improved propeller demand and a strong rebound in the defence segment. While revised FY26 revenue guidance of $50-52m was below the broker's prior estimates, EBITDA guidance of $3.25-3.75m is 59% ahead of estimates at the mid point.

The broker anticipates recent cost efficiencies will drive further earnings gains. As a result, dividends could return a year earlier than previously forecast. Accumulate rating and $0.90 target maintained.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.54 Difference: $0.365
If VEE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes proposed housing tax changes will slow Australian credit growth, prompting the broker to reduce its FY27 system credit growth forecast to around 4% from current levels of 8%.

Mortgage credit growth is expected to slow to 3.5%, while business lending moderates to 5%, resulting in modest earnings downgrades of between -1%-4% for the broker's coverage of major banks across FY26-FY28.

Commentary cautions the policy impact compounds an already challenging backdrop of slowing growth, elevated credit risk and pressure on net interest margins.

Citi prefers ANZ Bank among the majors, followed by National Australia Bank and Westpac, while retaining a Sell rating on CommBank due to valuation concerns and housing market exposure.

The target for Westpac falls by -$1.50 to $37.50. Neutral rating maintained.

Target price is $37.50 Current Price is $34.71 Difference: $2.79
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.85, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WES as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise survey flags a resilient, albeit selective, consumer with expenditure shifting towards essentials, value and convenience.

Grocery remains the clear positive expenditure category and value-seeking is intensifying with Aldi gaining share and private labels remaining a major trading-down beneficiary.

The main shift the broker observes is that consumers are no longer simply cutting back but are actively switching or trading down as well as changing where they shop.

Wesfarmers is in the prime seat as a value-exposed retailer, the broker notes. Equal-weight rating. Target is $78.70. Industry View: Cautious.

Target price is $78.70 Current Price is $79.99 Difference: minus $1.29 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $77.30, suggesting downside of -6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WOW as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise survey flags a resilient, albeit selective, consumer with expenditure shifting towards essentials, value and convenience.

Grocery remains the clear positive expenditure category and value-seeking is intensifying with Aldi gaining share and private labels remaining a major trading-down beneficiary.

The main shift the broker observes is that consumers are no longer simply cutting back but are actively switching or trading down as well as changing where they shop.

Woolworths Group is in the prime seat as a food and value-exposed retailer, the broker notes. Equal-weight rating. Target is $33.10. Industry View: Cautious.

Target price is $33.10 Current Price is $36.48 Difference: minus $3.38 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.34, suggesting downside of -5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources