Australian Broker Call

UBS rates ALK as Buy (1) -

UBS asserts rising cost pressures continue to be under-appreciated by the market and forecasts gold sector-wide costs will rise $110/oz in FY27, driving -5% downside to EPS on average and further margin compression.

Gold remains under pressure from rising yields, although UBS retains a constructive outlook amid an anticipated easing by the US Federal Reserve and continued buying in both the private and official sectors.

The broker reduces its target for Alkane Resources to $2.15 from $2.30 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.41 Difference: $0.745
If ALK meets the UBS target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.12, suggesting upside of 54.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASG as Buy (1) -

UBS observes trading conditions have currently driven a shift towards battery electric vehicles and, given the demand/supply imbalance, this pushes revenue into FY27 while costs remain in FY26.

Estimates are adjusted for Autosports Group for FY26, incorporating a softer second half for new vehicle sales and higher operating expenditure.

The broker also questions whether some of the softness within the traditional portfolio is not from other headwinds such as interest rates.

For Autosports Group, the valuation is considered undemanding as it is trading on a 1-year forward PE of 7.7x.

The customer base is expected to be resilient against increasing rates and there is potential upside if the company remains on the acquisition trail. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $2.90 from $3.35.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $1.67 Difference: $1.23
If ASG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AX1 as Neutral (3) -

Accent Group has reiterated its 2H26 earnings (EBIT) guidance of $23m–$28m versus consensus at $25m.

Citi believes this is a positive update from the retailer against a challenging consumer environment in the discretionary retail sector.

The announcement also lowers the risk of an earnings downgrade for FY26, albeit the guidance range is wide.

Neutral rated. Target 65c.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If AX1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.76, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AX1 as Equal-weight (3) -

Accent Group has recommended rejecting the unsolicited on-market offer from Frasers, as Morgan Stanley expected, asserting it is opportunistic and inadequate.

The company has rejected the claim it failed to comply with Sports Direct roll-out obligations and also pushed back on funding criticism, saying it has sufficient capital and cash flow to fund the roll-out.

The intention to continue paying fully franked dividends has been reiterated, with a target of 60%–80% of underlying net profit.

The broker notes communication appears to have improved post the bid and reiterates an Equal-weight rating, noting the bid is still active. Target remains at $0.75. Industry View: Cautious.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: $0.04
If AX1 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.76, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BGL as Buy (1) -

UBS asserts rising cost pressures continue to be under-appreciated by the market and forecast gold sector-wide costs will rise $110/oz in FY27, driving -5% downside to EPS on average and further margin compression.

Gold remains under pressure from rising yields, although UBS retains a constructive outlook amid an anticipated easing by the US Federal Reserve and continued buying in both the private and official sectors.

The broker reduces its target for Bellevue Gold to $1.80 from $2.00 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: $0.54
If BGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.02, suggesting upside of 65.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRI as Buy (1) -

Big River Industries' FY26 trading and strategic update flagged unaudited earnings (EBITDA) are expected to grow around 8% y/y after two years of negative growth, Ord Minnett points out.

Although 4Q26 revenue has been impacted by wet weather, the analyst is encouraged that earnings growth is returning.

Management focused on the gross margin which is expected to come in 10bps–20bps higher y/y as well as a corresponding management of operating costs.

The broker believes the business is well positioned for double-digit earnings growth into FY27. Buy with a new target of $1.65 from $1.70.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: $0.28
If BRI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CHN as Buy (1) -

UBS asserts rising cost pressures continue to be under-appreciated by the market and forecast gold sector-wide costs will rise $110/oz in FY27, driving -5% downside to EPS on average and further margin compression.

Gold remains under pressure from rising yields, although UBS retains a constructive outlook amid an anticipated easing by the US Federal Reserve and continued buying in both the private and official sectors.

The broker reduces the target for Chalice Mining to $2.00 from $3.00 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.11 Difference: $0.895
If CHN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 81% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.74, suggesting upside of 134.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CKF as Buy (1) -

In an initial take, Citi notes the FY26 underlying net profit from Collins Foods was ahead of expectations although the statutory net profit of $47.1m was -19% below consensus amid class action-related costs and restaurant impairments.

A disappointing German FY27 trading update could mean investors would like to see improved performance prior to additional acquisitions, the broker adds.

The KFC Australia margin fell, amid increased lower-margin delivery sales following a reduction in delivery fees.

Australian same-store sales growth for the first eight weeks of FY27 was 4%, which the broker considers a strong result given weaker consumer sentiment.

For the same period, the measure declined in Germany and the Netherlands by -7.2% and -7.8%, respectively.

Execution in Australia continues to outperform expectations and Citi has a Buy rating with a $10.30 target price.

Target price is $10.30 Current Price is $8.36 Difference: $1.94
If CKF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.89, suggesting upside of 33.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COH as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie observes US consumer sentiment continues to weaken, reaching all-time lows in May with a slight recovery in June as gas prices eased.

As part of the trading update in April, Cochlear downgraded underlying net profit guidance by -30% at the mid-point to $290–330m, calling out a decline in consumer sentiment.

The broker points out the decline in sentiment has eroded confidence in cochlear implant uptake and therefore remains cautious regarding the impact on services revenue.

Until there are signs of earnings recovery and clarity on restructuring initiatives, a Neutral rating is retained. Target rises to $119 from $115.

Target price is $119.00 Current Price is $121.08 Difference: minus $2.08 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $116.70, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CRN as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS prefers thermal/metallurgical coal stocks in the near term over iron ore although considers the fundamentals for bulks muted overall. In coal, a more supportive outlook for prices results in modest earnings upgrades for Coronado Global Resources.

Higher risk-free rates weigh slightly on valuation, which results in a downgrade to Neutral from Buy and the lowering of the target to $0.21 from $0.38.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.015
If CRN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.34, suggesting upside of 80.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes CHMP (Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use) has recommended the revocation of the European marketing authorisation for Tavenos, a Vifor product, arising from issues relating to data used for approval.

Once this is ratified by the European Commission, Tavenos will not be able to be sold in the European Union. The analyst had already reduced the earnings forecast for Tavenos to below US$10m from a peak of around US$170m in FY26.

Notably, around US$100m-plus in forecast earnings for Tavenos remains included in consensus estimates, the broker points out.

Although Tavenos is circa 1.1% of CSL's top line for FY26, Citi views this as an "unhelpful development" against global biotechs being more supported in stock markets globally.

Neutral rating and $110 target are retained.

Target price is $110.00 Current Price is $115.39 Difference: minus $5.39 (current price is over target).
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $130.37, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSL as Neutral (3) -

The European regulator has recommended revoking marketing authorisation for Tavneos, which represents around 6%-7% of Vifor revenue.

Macquarie notes this follows on from news that the US FDA is considering withdrawing the drug in the US, citing concerns around data handling during the pivotal phase 3 trial.

A final opinion from the European Commission is expected over the next 60 days, although the broker considers this routine and the ruling is highly likely.

CSL has marketing rights for the drug outside of the US, and has noted sales revenue for FY26 is expected to be around $145m while no guidance was provided for FY27.

Macquarie reiterates a Neutral rating, given the significant uncertainty regarding earnings in the short term across core business segments. Target moves to $114 from $111.

Target price is $114.00 Current Price is $115.39 Difference: minus $1.39 (current price is over target).
If CSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $130.37, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Hold (3) -

In another blow for CSL's Vifor, the biotech announced it expects no new patients to be prescribed Tavneos, which is produced under licence from Vifor's nephrology arm, Ord Minnett notes.

Regulators have recommended the drug is no longer sold in the European Union and Economic Area due to concerns around the clinical data used to approve the drug.

CSL had indicated revenue from Tavneos in FY26 was expected to be around US$145m, commentary notes.

FY26 EPS forecasts remain unchanged. The broker lowers FY27 and FY28 EPS forecasts by -0.6%.

A Hold rating is reiterated with a $117 target price.

Target price is $117.00 Current Price is $115.39 Difference: $1.61
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $130.37, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CYL as Buy (1) -

Against a backdrop of rising US bond yields, a stronger US dollar and profit taking, Morgans points out the gold price has fallen around -26% from its high in January.

After one of the "steepest" rallies in recent history, the current drawdown is noted by the analyst as largely in line with previous gold bull markets.

The broker continues to remain positive on gold and gold miners and considers the retracement in share prices as an opportunity. Morgans' near-term gold price forecast has been lowered to reflect the current spot price around US$4,000/oz.

Catalyst Metals is Buy rated with a new target price of $13.58, from $15.13, previously.

Target price is $13.58 Current Price is $5.17 Difference: $8.41
If CYL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 163% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.39, suggesting upside of 144.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DRR as Neutral (3) -

UBS prefers thermal/metallurgical coal stocks in the near term over iron ore although considers the fundamentals for bulks muted overall.

Evolving Australian tax policy incrementally shifts investor preferences towards income, the broker notes, with a high-yielding Deterra Royalties benefiting from a lower cost of capital. Neutral rating. Target is raised to $4.75 from $3.95.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.65 Difference: $0.1
If DRR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EVN as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Against a backdrop of rising US bond yields, a stronger US dollar and profit taking, Morgans points out the gold price has fallen around -26% from its high in January.

After one of the "steepest" rallies in recent history, the current drawdown is noted by the analyst as largely in line with previous gold bull markets.

The broker continues to remain positive on gold and gold miners and considers the retracement in share prices as an opportunity. Morgans' near-term gold price forecast has been lowered to reflect the current spot price around US$4,000/oz.

Evolution Mining is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate with a new $15 target price, from $16, previously. In large caps, Evolution is the most preferred stock.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $12.39 Difference: $2.61
If EVN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.29, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS asserts rising cost pressures continue to be under-appreciated by the market and forecast gold sector-wide costs will rise $110/oz in FY27, driving -5% downside to EPS on average and further margin compression.

Gold remains under pressure from rising yields, although UBS retains a constructive outlook amid an anticipated easing by the US Federal Reserve and continued buying in both the private and official sectors.

The broker downgrades Evolution Mining to Neutral from Buy and reduces the target to $12.60 from $14.00.

Target price is $12.60 Current Price is $12.39 Difference: $0.21
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.29, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FHE as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage on Frontier Energy with a Speculative Buy rating and 34c target price.

The analyst expects Waroona Stage 1 will generate revenue between $64m-$66m from fixed asset credits, at 50%, electricity sales at 49% and LGCs at 1%.

Notably, the low marginal cost of solar energy generation will achieve high margins, around 80% at the earnings (EBITDA) level, the analyst explains.

Western Australian electricity prices are anticipated to continue to rise by 20%-plus by FY30 with ongoing demand growth of 13%-plus by FY30.

The broker highlights the Waroona Project has scope for further organic growth via the development of Stage 2 and Stage 3. 

Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.095
If FHE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GGP as Buy (1) -

Citi views the reserve update from Greatland Resources, up 62% in group reserves to 5Moz gold and 196kt copper with the company some 360km through the drilling campaign as a positive, de-risking event.

A 150% rise in the Telfer reserve to 1.8Moz, including a rise in reserves to 1.4Moz from 0.3Moz in West Dome open pit is labelled "good news".

The analyst expects the open pit mine life to lift to around 2035 from 2033 with mill capacity to rise to 20mtpa. Baseload visibility is now in place for Telfer, Citi states, with better news on the mine life for West Dome.

Buy rated with a $16 target.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $12.02 Difference: $3.98
If GGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.19, suggesting upside of 40.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley takes note of the latest insights on the ex-China NdFeB magnet capacity, noting US capacity could reach around 28,000tpa by 2028 from proven producers or around 35,000tpa when including potential new entrants.

Outside the US, Europe has around 3,600tpa of current capacity. Constraints remain in oxide-to-metal conversion and heavy rare supply.

Reading through the data, the broker considers it constructive for demand and benefiting Iluka Resources as it looks for further offtake from Eneabba.

Overweight. Target is $7.95. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $7.95 Current Price is $7.00 Difference: $0.95
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.55, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates JBH as Buy (1) -

Approaching the peak in cash rates, Bell Potter favours building exposure in consumer discretionary stocks. Growth expectations for many discretionary names are "low", the broker adds, with wide levels of FY27 estimates, particularly among the smaller contributors.

Coinciding with potential peak cash rate in Australia in June, the broker notes May retail expenditure was encouraging. Challenging trading conditions are still expected over the next nine months while FY27 is expected to be the cyclical low point for most retailers.

JB Hi-Fi has a Buy rating and $87 target.

Target price is $87.00 Current Price is $83.60 Difference: $3.4
If JBH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $84.63, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JBH as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS downgrades JB Hi-Fi to Neutral from Buy, citing a "balanced" rather than "attractive" risk reward. This follows a period of mixed performance in the share price and an underperformance since the first half result.

Estimated earnings are reduced to more fully reflect the concerns of heightened competitive activity, noted by the company in its third quarter sales update.

UBS has less confidence that the Australian business can manage the very difficult comparables, despite a record of being able to do this historically.

Going forward, the broker suggests competitive intensity from Officeworks ((WES)) could increase on a more enduring basis as that competitor seeks to improve its technology offering. Target is reduced to $83 from $85.

Target price is $83.00 Current Price is $83.60 Difference: minus $0.6 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $84.63, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KAR as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Morgans upgrades Karoon Energy to Buy from Hold with a higher target price of $1.77, up from $1.67, post the share price falling around -36%.

The broker believes the share price should not be trading around a 52-week low, pointing to the positive news from Brazil with the successful restart of the SPS-92, Bauna's largest well in terms of output.

This well has stabilised production around 8,600bopd post the installation of a new electrical submersible pump.

Total Bauna production is back to around 20,500 bopd. The analyst notes the restart of PRA-2, which should contribute an additional 1,000 to 2,000 bopd.

On the negative side, capex guidance has been raised to US$178m–US$202m from US$150m–US$183m.

Target price is $1.77 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.395
If KAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.84, suggesting upside of 26.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LYC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley takes note of the latest insights into the ex-China NdFeB magnet capacity, noting US capacity could reach around 28,000tpa by 2028 from proven producers or around 35,000tpa when including potential new entrants.

Outside the US, Europe has around 3,600tpa of current capacity. Constraints remain in oxide-to-metal conversion and heavy rare supply.

Reading through the data, the broker considers it constructive for demand and Lynas Rare Earths is well-placed, given its established ex-China RE oxide position.

Equal-weight rating. Target is $20.45. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $20.45 Current Price is $18.52 Difference: $1.93
If LYC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.07, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MGR as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi has upgraded Mirvac Group to Buy from Neutral with a higher target price of $2 from $1.84.

The broker points to a sell-off in REITs of -23% to -33% since October 2025 which infers a challenging housing cycle has been priced in by 75 bps rate hikes with one more likely. There has also been a once-in-a-generation change in tax treatment of real estate.

Auction clearance rates have also fallen by -15% to -20% and fears around construction cost rises are likely to be overstated with actual cost rises more "benign", the analyst states.

The budget changes are a positive tailwind structurally for new housing developers as capital moves from existing dwellings to new dwellings.

Citi prefers Stockland Group ((SGP)) over Mirvac Group but feels the PERs are trading at trough through the cycle multiples, aligned with previous downturns in the housing market. Demand is expected to pick up in 2027.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.235
If MGR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.02, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MIN as Buy (1) -

UBS remains bullish on copper, lithium and uranium, with Mineral Resources a key lithium pick. A lithium deficit is forecast for 2026 with strong demand and tight inventory even as supply lifts.

The broker retains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $79 from $83, reflecting growth in Onslow iron and mining services and resultant de-gearing.

Target price is $79.00 Current Price is $62.15 Difference: $16.85
If MIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $77.40, suggesting upside of 23.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NEM as Buy (1) -

Against a backdrop of rising US bond yields, a stronger US dollar and profit taking, Morgans points out the gold price has fallen around -26% from its high in January.

After one of the "steepest" rallies in recent history, the current drawdown is noted by the analyst as largely in line with previous gold bull markets.

The broker continues to remain positive on gold and gold miners and considers the retracement in share prices as an opportunity. Morgans' near-term gold price forecast has been lowered to reflect the current spot price around US$4,000/oz.

Newmont Corp is Buy rated with a new $198 target price, from $206, previously. In large caps, Newmont is the second most preferred after Evolution Mining ((EVN)), ahead of Northern Star ((NST)).

Target price is $198.00 Current Price is $137.50 Difference: $60.5
If NEM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $194.80, suggesting upside of 44.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NEM as Buy (1) -

UBS asserts rising cost pressures continue to be under-appreciated by the market and forecast gold sector-wide costs will rise $110/oz in FY27, driving -5% downside to EPS on average and further margin compression.

Gold remains under pressure from rising yields, although UBS retains a constructive outlook amid an anticipated easing by the US Federal Reserve and continued buying in both the private and official sectors.

The broker reduces the target for Newmont Corp to $180 from $195 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $180.00 Current Price is $137.50 Difference: $42.5
If NEM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $194.80, suggesting upside of 44.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NEU as Outperform (1) -

The European regulator has now recommended registration for Daybue, reversing its prior negative decision.

Macquarie revises forecasts to capture a US$35m payment for the first commercial sale in the EU, expected by the end of the year.

An initial launch is expected in Germany, where the product will be sold in a free pricing environment for six months.

Neuren Pharmaceuticals, as part of its arrangements with Acadia, will receive tiered royalties from the mid teens to the low 20% of net sales, plus sales milestone payments up to US$170m on achieving certain thresholds.

Outperform retained. Target is $19.10.

Target price is $19.10 Current Price is $16.60 Difference: $2.5
If NEU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.37, suggesting upside of 38.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NIC as Buy (1) -

UBS continues to like the evolution of Nickel Industries to a class 1 nickel producer, with greater exposure to EV battery chains and higher-margin product.

The broker highlights the recent TMI and CNE HPAL transactions, which continue the strategy of diversifying operations and optimising the asset base, as well as the overhaul to the company's debt structure.

Taking into account these transactions and the updated nickel price deck, the broker upgrades earnings estimates by 23%-121% across FY26-FY28, which raises the target to $1.20 from $0.95. A Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.91 Difference: $0.29
If NIC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.32, suggesting upside of 38.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NST as Buy (1) -

Against a backdrop of rising US bond yields, a stronger US dollar and profit taking, Morgans points out the gold price has fallen around -26% from its high in January.

After one of the "steepest" rallies in recent history, the current drawdown is noted by the analyst as largely in line with previous gold bull markets.

The broker continues to remain positive on gold and gold miners and considers the retracement in share prices as an opportunity. Morgans' near-term gold price forecast has been lowered to reflect the current spot price around US$4,000/oz.

Northern Star Resources is the third most preferred large cap gold producer after Evolution and Newmont. Target price is $26 down from $30 with an ongoing Buy rating.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $20.12 Difference: $5.88
If NST meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.03, suggesting upside of 41.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Buy (1) -

UBS asserts rising cost pressures continue to be under-appreciated by the market and forecast gold sector-wide costs will rise $110/oz in FY27, driving -5% downside to EPS on average and further margin compression.

Gold remains under pressure from rising yields, although UBS retains a constructive outlook amid an anticipated easing by the US Federal Reserve and continued buying in both the private and official sectors.

The broker reduces the target for Northern Star Resources to $23.75 from $24.35 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $23.75 Current Price is $20.12 Difference: $3.63
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.03, suggesting upside of 41.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PNR as Buy (1) -

UBS asserts rising cost pressures continue to be under appreciated by the market and forecast gold sector-wide costs will rise $110/oz in FY27, driving -5% downside to EPS on average and further margin compression.

Gold remains under pressure from rising yields, although UBS retains a constructive outlook amid an anticipated easing by the US Federal Reserve and continued buying in both the private and official sectors.

The broker reduces the target for Pantoro Gold to $5.10 from $6.20 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $2.44 Difference: $2.66
If PNR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 109% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.21, suggesting upside of 126.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PXA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie's analysis suggests price reductions of -7% to -12% from the IPART draft report that is due on July 3.

Small reductions are expected, given the government may be motivated to actively manage a monopoly, although there is also a scenario possible where pricing remains flat.

The broker points out IPART concluded prices were reasonable in the 2019 review and therefore thinks prices are unlikely to shift materially.

Pexa Group has underperformed the market by -35% since the methodology paper was released and Macquarie estimates the share price captures a -16% to -17% reduction in prices with no offsets. Outperform retained. Target is unchanged at $19.05.

Target price is $19.05 Current Price is $10.54 Difference: $8.51
If PXA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 81% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.40, suggesting upside of 48.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

UBS expects Simandou to export 2.2mt in June at a run rate of around 29mtpa and this points to upside risk to its 2026 shipment forecasts of 22mt and to Rio Tinto's guidance for 5mt–10mt in sales from blocks 3 and 4.

The broker points out that high rainfall during the wet season in both Brazil and the Pilbara could result in lower production over July–October, while precipitation around Simandou has been lower compared with historical averages.

Neutral rating and $183 target.

Target price is $183.00 Current Price is $174.10 Difference: $8.9
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $178.25, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RMS as Buy (1) -

Against a backdrop of rising US bond yields, a stronger US dollar and profit taking, Morgans points out the gold price has fallen around -26% from its high in January.

After one of the "steepest" rallies in recent history, the current drawdown is noted by the analyst as largely in line with previous gold bull markets.

The broker continues to remain positive on gold and gold miners and considers the retracement in share prices as an opportunity. Morgans' near-term gold price forecast has been lowered to reflect the current spot price around US$4,000/oz.

Ramelius Resources is Buy rated with a new target price of $5.80 from $6.10, previously. Among mid-cap gold producers, it is the most preferred stock.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $3.07 Difference: $2.73
If RMS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 89% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.99, suggesting upside of 69.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RMS as Buy (1) -

UBS asserts rising cost pressures continue to be under-appreciated by the market and forecast gold sector-wide costs will rise $110/oz in FY27, driving -5% downside to EPS on average and further margin compression.

Gold remains under pressure from rising yields, although UBS retains a constructive outlook amid an anticipated easing by the US Federal Reserve and continued buying in both the private and official sectors.

The broker reduces its target for Ramelius Resources to $4.85 from $5.00 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $3.07 Difference: $1.78
If RMS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.99, suggesting upside of 69.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RRL as Buy (1) -

Against a backdrop of rising US bond yields, a stronger US dollar and profit taking, Morgans points out the gold price has fallen around -26% from its high in January.

After one of the "steepest" rallies in recent history, the current drawdown is noted by the analyst as largely in line with previous gold bull markets.

The broker continues to remain positive on gold and gold miners and considers the retracement in share prices as an opportunity. Morgans' near-term gold price forecast has been lowered to reflect the current spot price around US$4,000/oz.

Regis Resources is Buy rated with a new target price of $9.39 from $10.07, previously.

Target price is $9.39 Current Price is $6.48 Difference: $2.91
If RRL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.40, suggesting upside of 39.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGP as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi has raised its target price on Stockland to $5.10 from $4.30 and upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral.

The broker points to a sell-off in REITs of -23% to -33% since October 2025 which infers a challenging housing cycle has been priced in by 75 bps rate hikes with one more likely. There has also been a once-in-a-generation change in tax treatment of real estate.

Auction clearance rates have also fallen by -15% to -20% and fears around construction cost rises are likely to be overstated with actual cost rises more "benign", the analyst states.

The budget changes are a positive tailwind structurally for new housing developers as capital moves from existing dwellings to new dwellings.

Citi prefers Stockland Group ((SGP)) over Mirvac Group but feels the PERs are trading at trough through the cycle multiples, aligned with previous downturns in the housing market. Demand is expected to pick up in 2027.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $0.93
If SGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.91, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SX2 as Buy (1) -

UBS asserts rising cost pressures continue to be under-appreciated by the market and forecast gold sector-wide costs will rise $110/oz in FY27, driving -5% downside to EPS on average and further margin compression.

Gold remains under pressure from rising yields, although UBS retains a constructive outlook amid an anticipated easing by the US Federal Reserve and continued buying in both the private and official sectors.

The broker reduces its target for Southern Cross Gold to $12.25 from $12.50 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $12.25 Current Price is $8.98 Difference: $3.27
If SX2 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TCL as Neutral (3) -

Transurban Group announced it has signed a Development Framework Agreement (DFA) to work with the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) for the addition of 120 lane miles, which makes the project six times larger than the group originally expected, Citi highlights.

This will lift capacity by 140% with the next steps including design development, contractor selection and capex requirements to facilitate a submission of a Binding Proposal to VDOT.

The analyst sees this as a long-term positive development, but considers the shares are currently valued fairly with a circa 4.8% dividend yield.

Neutral rated. Target $15.80.

Target price is $15.80 Current Price is $14.71 Difference: $1.09
If TCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.35, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TLS as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter previews forecasts for Telstra Group ahead of financial year-end, adjusting for price increases and clarity around the number of shares bought back in the current half-year.

The net result is slight upgrades to revenue but modest underlying downgrades (-1%) to EBITDA.

The broker continues to expect an FY26 result consistent with guidance and the final dividend to be consistent with the interim at 10.5c, albeit only 90% franked.

Few surprises are expected, so the focus will shift to the outlook for FY27. Hold rating and $5.10 target maintained.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $5.16 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If TLS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.37, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WHC as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS prefers thermal/metallurgical coal stocks in the near term over iron ore although considers the fundamentals for bulks muted overall. In coal, a more supportive outlook for prices results in modest earnings upgrades for Whitehaven Coal.

Higher risk-free rates weigh slightly on valuation which results in a downgrade to Neutral from Buy and the lowering of the target to $8.70 from $9.10.

Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $7.97 Difference: $0.73
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.24, suggesting upside of 20.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources