Australia | Dec 08 2008
Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
Economists at ANZ Bank report the total number of jobs advertised in major metropolitan newspapers and on the internet fell by 8.6% in November to a weekly average of 211,199 per week. The fall in job ads exceeds the fall of 5.9% in October. The total number of advertisements in November was 18.6% lower than 12 months ago.
In trend terms, the total number of job advertisements fell by 3.5% in November to be 14.9% lower than 12 months earlier.
Looking at the different channels for advertising jobs, the economists report the number of job advertisements in major metropolitan newspapers fell by 12.0% in November to an average of 11,767 per week. This follows a 12.1% drop in October. Newspaper advertisements are now 42.7% lower than in November 2007. In trend terms, the number of newspaper job advertisements fell by 4.6% in November to be 36.9% lower than a year ago.
ANZ reports the large fall in newspaper job advertisements in November was driven by declines in all states and territories. The largest falls in percentage terms were in the Northern Territory (-17.4%), Queensland (-16.6%), Western Australia (-14.9%), South Australia (-14.2%) and Victoria (-12.6). There were also large falls in Tasmania (-9.5%), and New South Wales (-8.0%); the fall in the ACT (-2.5%) was more modest.
Internet job advertisements “only” fell by 8.4% in November to average 199,433 per week, down by 21.9% from the latest peak of 255,456 in April 2008. In trend terms, internet job advertisements fell by 3.5% in November to be 13.0% lower than 12 months ago.
ANZ Head of Australian Economics Warren Hogan, highlights internet job advertisements are now at the lowest level since February 2007 and they have been in decline since May of this year. Over the past six months, internet job ads have fallen by over 20%.
Hogan also remarks that job ads should be seen as a leading indicator of economic conditions in Australia. As such, the latest data suggest the global financial crisis has had a substantial impact on the Australian economy in the December quarter.
Newspaper job advertising has fared worse than the internet. They have declined by the most in the 30-year history of the survey. Hogan comments this tells us that hiring intentions throughout Australia have been heavily impacted by the latest wave of uncertainty and financial distress caused by the global financial crisis. He states: “There is a reliable relationship between newspaper job advertisements and employment over the following six months. If the recent weakness in job ads is sustained, it would be consistent with a contraction in total employment over the first six months of 2009.”
Hogan also points out that if the latest job ads data would prove a correct indicator, unemployment in Australia will be rising much faster than ANZ Bank is currently forecasting.
With regards to the next official employment numbers, scheduled to be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics this Thursday, ANZ is forecasting a 22,000 decline in total employment in the month of November.