ALURION RESOURCES LIMITED (ALU)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

13/08/2026

1

Speculative Buy

$1.60

263.64%

Ord Minnett initiates coverage of newly listed Alurion Resources with a Speculative Buy rating and $1.60 target, highlighting the higher risks associated with its pre-development status.

The company plans to establish a Brazilian bauxite export operation, initially targeting a 5Mtpa direct shipping project supported by a 98Mt DSO resource and existing infrastructure, with first production forecast for calendar 2030.

The broker sees Alurion's high-quality gibbsitic bauxite, low expected mining costs and proximity to infrastructure as key advantages, with the product considered well suited to Chinese alumina refineries.

At full production in calendar 2031, the broker forecasts an FCF yield of around 47% using a long-term Guinean bauxite price of US$77/t, while additional lower-grade bauxite and rare earth mineralisation provide longer-term optionality.

FORECAST
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of minus -4.47 cents.
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY27 EPS of minus -8.22 cents.

07/10/2026

1

Speculative Buy

$2.70

513.64%

Canaccord Genuity reiterates its Speculative Buy rating for Alurion Resources with a $2.70 target price following the completion of an independent transport study validating the base-case road haulage strategy at the Amargosa bauxite project in Brazil.

The study confirms the northern route to the Port of Enseada and the southern route to a proposed rail load-out can support up to 11.5m tonnes per annum with no modelled road-capacity constraints.

The analyst notes the company's haulage fleet would account for less than 1% of corridor traffic at base-case volumes, rising to 1.6% at the expanded 11.5m tonnes per annum rate.

Canaccord Genuity believes these results materially de-risk the logistics component of a higher throughput development scenario, supporting a road-link alternative to a dedicated rail spur to potentially lower capital intensity.

A pre-feasibility study due in mid-2027 will assess the increased haulage scenario alongside ongoing engineering studies regarding a potential port expansion to 13.5m tonnes per annum.