Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday August 24 to Friday August 28, 2026
Total Upgrades: 16
Total Downgrades: 56
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 61.79%; Hold 31.05%; Sell 7.17%
For the week ending Friday, 28 August 2026, the fourth week of the August reporting season, the seven stockbrokers monitored daily by FNArena issued sixteen ratings upgrades and fifty-six downgrades for individual ASX-listed companies.
Total Buy ratings in the FNArena database fell to 61.79% from 63.73%, with most downgrades shifting to Neutral/Hold, for which the percentage rose to 31.05% from 29.35%. Sell ratings accounted for the remaining 7.17%, up from 6.91% previously.
Paladin Energy and Regis Resources received respectively four and three ratings downgrades on valuation after results ‘beat’ expectations, according to FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor: https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/08/21/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-21-08-2026/
The Results Monitor also provides commentary on multiple ‘beats’-related downgrades for Guzman y Gomez, Lovisa Holdings and Sandfire Resources, along with downgrades following disappointing results by Smartgroup Corp and IDP Education.
In-line reporting by miners equally resulted in twin downgrades for Capricorn Metals, Ora Banda Mining, South32, Perseus Mining and PLS Group.
Speaking of uranium exposure PLS Group, last week UBS retained its Neutral rating for the company after reviewing lithium market fundamentals.
The broker remains positive on lithium demand, supported by strong growth in battery and energy storage and tight inventories, despite lower spodumene price forecasts.
A flatter price cycle and rising capex reduce near-term free cash flow forecasts by as much as -50%, resulting in lower targets for IGO Ltd, Liontown Resources and Elevra Lithium by up to -15% and downgrades for all three to Neutral.
UBS retained its Buy rating for Patriot Battery Metals.
On the flipside, following broadly in-line, though less than perfect FY26 results for Sigma Healthcare, Morgans and Bell Potter upgraded their ratings to Buy.
Overall, percentage rises and falls in average target prices are evenly balanced in the tables below, with all 20 explained by commentary in the Monitor.
Corresponding with result ‘beats’ the average targets for Bapcor and Codan rose by 27% and 16%, respectively, while ‘misses’ by Peter Warren Automotive and IDP Education resulted in respective falls in targets of -31% and -27%.
Shares in automotive aftermarket business Bapcor have been in decline since trading above $8 in late 2021, with the sell-off accelerating from around $5 in mid-2025 to a low of 35.5c.
Following last week’s FY26 results, the shares recovered to close the week at 70c. Bapcor shares feature prominently among the most shorted stocks on the ASX.
Neutral-rated Macquarie notes management’s strategic reset is gaining momentum and positions the group for a return to sustainable growth, prompting this broker to raise its target by 26c to 70c.
While believing the positive share price reaction was largely driven by short-covering, Citi acknowledged the debate is now shifting from solvency concerns to whether improving operational execution can deliver sustainable and material earnings growth.
This broker raised its target to 69c from 40c and upgraded to Neutral from Sell.
In contrast, the Codan share price trajectory has been uniformly positive, rising to $47.56 from around $8.00 at the beginning of 2024.
Codan makes rugged, high-value electronic equipment for situations where reliability is critical such as communicating out in the bush or on a battlefield, coordinating emergency services or finding gold (literally).
For FY26, Ord Minnett noted the Communications division benefited from strong demand for defence and unmanned radio systems, while Metal Detection division revenue grew 42% following new product launches and distribution expansion.
While automotive dealership group Peter Warren Automotive’s FY26 profit landed towards the top of revised guidance, a sharp deterioration in second-half profitability was significantly worse than Morgan Stanley expected.
The analysts explain their previous thesis around internal improvements and a cyclical recovery has weakened amid a sharp deterioration in the cycle.
Despite a compelling valuation, the broker cut its target to $1.00 from $2.10 and downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight as management undertakes a strategic repositioning.
The once-mighty global international education services company IDP Education, whose shares approached $40 in 2021, continues its fall from grace following FY26 results.
Shares ended the week at $1.82 after plumbing a new 52-week low of $1.53.
UBS slashed its target to $1.95 from $5.15 and downgraded to Neutral from Buy, noting management is controlling what it can. The currently difficult operating environment is expected to persist through FY27.
Morgans lowered its target to $1.75 from $3.42, suggesting the more important issue than FY26 results is the outlook, with management guiding to another -20%-30% decline in student placement volumes in FY27 and to earnings around -9% below prior market expectations.
Rises in average earnings forecasts far outweigh falls in the tables below, but it’s important to note any percentage change may be exaggerated during the reporting season as the comparison is no longer like-for-like.
Many upward/downward revisions reflect brokers rolling their financial models forward to FY27 and beyond following the release of FY26 results.
All ten of the rises in average earnings forecasts in the table below are explained in the Monitor, while only Greatland Resources is yet to be added in the case of reduced earnings estimates.
This gold and copper producer’s earnings of $1.33bn came out in line with forecasts by Macquarie, Citi and consensus, profit of $862m was slightly ahead of expectation, while FY27 production guidance was reaffirmed.
Macquarie raised its target for Greatland by 8% to $13.00 and downgraded to Neutral from Outperform following recent share price strength, while Buy-rated Citi will make any necessary adjustments this week.
Elsewhere, Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure’s average 2026 forecast fell by circa -18% following in-line interim results.
The company’s sole asset is the long-term lease and operating rights to the Dalrymple Bay Terminal, the world’s largest metallurgical coal export terminal by capacity, located at Hay Point near Mackay in Queensland.
This company has appeal to investors seeking dependable and growing yield and defensive elements for their portfolio: https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/08/27/dalrymple-bays-strong-yield-growth-outlook/.
Upgrade
ADAIRS LIMITED ((ADH)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/3/0
Adairs reported FY26 underlying earnings down -0.4% year on year and within guidance range. Adairs and Mocka delivered strong growth, Morgans notes, while Focus on Furniture remains a drag. Management is now guiding a two-year turnaround.
Morgans sees the core Adairs banner set to deliver strong growth in FY27 driven by gross improvement and cost control, along with solid growth in Mocka offsetting weakness in Focus.
Given the share price weakness, the broker upgrades to a Buy recommendation from Accumulate. Target rises to $1.80 from $1.70.
AUB GROUP LIMITED ((AUB)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 5/0/0
Following AUB Group's FY26 results, Citi raises its target to $34.80 from $27.30 mainly reflecting a greater weighting to DCF valuation, now 50%, following a peer re-rating.
The broker's rating is also upgraded to Buy from Neutral. It's noted the stock still trades below its historical PE median of around 17.7x, at approximately 15.3x currently.
First Take: AUB Group's FY26 result is broadly in line with Citi's expectations, with underlying profit of $225m rising 12% and beating forecasts by the broker and consensus by circa 1%.
The International division performed slightly ahead of the analysts' estimate, with few signs of material issues at London-based international insurance and reinsurance broker Tysers. Agencies disappointed due mainly to weaker strata earnings, the broker explains.
Australian Broking earnings (EBIT) rose 7% to $247m, while International EBIT increased 25% to $136m and Agencies EBIT rose 8% to $105m.
Maiden FY27 profit guidance of $245m–$265m implies to Citi growth of 9%–18%, with the $255m midpoint slightly below $259m consensus.
AUB plans to restructure its network, reset costs and direct investment towards higher-return businesses, while accelerating Agencies growth and expanding Tysers.
BAPCOR LIMITED ((BAP)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 0/3/1
Post the earnings call, Citi sees more evidence albeit "snippets" of a turnaround starting to take shape.
Management noted improving market share, improving sales trends, better stock availability, lower discounting and positives flowing from pricing and cost improvements.
Positively, there were indications of more sustainable market share gains rather than a rise prompted by discounting. Revenue guidance was "modest" with a heavy skew to 3H27.
The stock is upgraded to Neutral from Sell with a higher target of 69c from 40c.
First take: Bapcor's FY26 underlying EBITDA was above the top end of its $144m–$150m guidance range, although the statutory loss of –$431.6m was materially worse than consensus, Citi points out.
Improved cash conversion and a reduction in net debt to $135m from $365m was notable, while like-for-like sales improved to 0.4% growth over the final five months of FY26 from a –2.7% decline over the first seven months.
FY27 is shaping up as another transition year, the analyst believes, with only modest revenue growth expected and NPAT heavily weighted to 2H27. Turnaround benefits are expected to be largely reinvested in technology and people.
Citi sees little prospect of a near-term earnings recovery. Sell rated. Target 40c.
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