Australia | Dec 10 2007
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
Local biotechnology hopeful Chemgenex (CXS) has presented key clinical data on its ongoing Phase 2/3 trial of its lead compound known as Omacetaxine Mepesuccinate at a major international haematology conference in the US over the weekend. ABN Amro Morgans healthcare specialists Scott Power and Tanya Solomon report the data presented were “very positive” -and certainly above their own expectations. They highlight these data were prepared by independent researchers, not by the company itself.
The data presented comprised of 21 patients, of which 11 in chronic phase, 4 in accelerated phase and 6 in blast phase, all suffering from a type of leukemia (in particular: chronic myeloid leukemia). According to the released results, patients in this trial have developed resistance to the current Gleevec treatment and contain a certain type of mutation, known as T315I.
Amongst other things, the released data showed a complete disappearance of the T315I mutation in 38% of evaluable patients (in other words: in 8 patients) while two of the chronic phase patients maintained their clinical response for more than 12 months.
ABN Amro Morgans rates the stock Buy. The two healthcare analysts believe fair value for the shares lies around $1.36 which is also the price target they’ve set earlier for the stock.
This valuation of $1.36 is sensitive to any changes in the probability of success which is currently 70%, the analysts state. Each 5% change in the estimate increases their valuation by 11cps. Power and Salomon are currently reviewing this probability rating.
ABN Amro (Morgans) is currently the only broker in the FNArena universe who covers this stock.