Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday September 21 to Friday September 25, 2026
Total Upgrades: 4
Total Downgrades: 5
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 62.37%; Hold 30.08%; Sell 7.55%
For the week ending Friday, 25 September 2026, the seven stockbrokers monitored daily by FNArena issued four ratings upgrades and five downgrades for individual ASX-listed companies.
As the tables below show, percentage rises and falls in target prices were broadly balanced last week, and none were material in nature. Earnings forecast downgrades outweighed upgrades.
Telix Pharmaceuticals heads the list of negative changes to earnings forecasts due to a -49% fall in the consensus FY26 EPS estimate to account for short-term shareholder dilution.
Analysts covering Telix are supportive of the proposed tie-in with Isotope Technologies Munich (ITM), stressing the strategic importance of vertically integrating into isotope manufacturing and supply.
It’s also felt the transaction will add a potentially lucrative therapeutic pipeline while giving management greater control over production and security of supply: https://fnarena.com/2026/09/24/telix-aims-for-a-strategic-isotope-supply-chain/
While uranium development company Deep Yellow’s average earnings forecast fell -42% after Morgans adjusted its forecasts, the broker believes the Tumas project is emerging as one of the more advanced undeveloped uranium projects globally.
Management is targeting a final investment decision in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Since the original decision to defer project approval, uranium market conditions have improved materially, detailed engineering has progressed, key infrastructure agreements have been executed and financing work has continued.
Last week, Macquarie initiated coverage on pre-production gold development company Minerals 260 with an Outperform rating and $1.30 target price, which had the effect of lowering consensus earnings forecasts in the FNArena database.
Targeting first production in the first half of FY29, the company’s Bullabulling Gold Project is a large-scale, long-life asset containing a 6.2Moz mineral resource and supporting a 19-year mine life.
Bullabulling is Australia’s third-largest undeveloped gold project, behind Hemi and Havieron, which are owned by respectively Northern Star Resources and Greatland Resources.
It is also the only large-scale, long-life asset of its kind not owned by an established producer or ASX-listed gold major, Macquarie notes.
Minerals 260 stock is seen trading at an attractive enterprise value per resource ounce of $321. Macquarie also notes consensus does not yet fully reflect the potential expansion to 7.5Mtpa from 5Mtpa.
Nine Entertainment’s earnings forecast fell -8% last week after UBS lowered its FY27-FY29 earnings (EBITDA) and EPS forecasts by an average of –10% and –36%, respectively, reflecting macroeconomic weakness and updated accounting standards.
The broker explained investor debate around Nine centres on whether Stan’s advertising-supported tier can lift subscribers without materially diluting average revenue per user (ARPU) and when the company’s digital outdoor advertising company QMS Media will deliver meaningful cross-platform revenue synergies.
Industry experience suggests to UBS Stan may initially suffer ARPU dilution, as advertising revenue is unlikely to offset subscriber downgrades, while QMS’s dual-channel proposition is considered compelling, although execution remains key.
Nine’s consensus target fell by -5%. Inghams Group's presence is the result of in-house data adjustment.
Agricultural chemical company Nufarm and coal miner New Hope appear either side of Nine Entertainment on the earnings upgrade list.
While Nufarm’s trading update last week was disappointing ahead of its Investor Days on 28-29 September, Macquarie highlighted the outperformance of the higher-value Seeds segment relative to Crop Protection, particularly the strength in Hybrid Seeds, as positive for the company’s valuation: https://fnarena.com/2026/09/24/better-to-ignore-nufarms-guidance-downgrade/
New Hope posted a strong FY26 result with a big dividend surprise due to rising thermal coal prices: https://fnarena.com/2026/09/21/new-hope-rides-thermal-coal-wave/
The coal company’s FY26 results and outlook were adjudged ‘in line’ by FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor: https://fnarena.com/2026/09/25/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-25-09-2026/
On the flipside, Bellevue Gold received the largest percentage increase in earnings forecasts after FY26 earnings of $237m exceeded the consensus forecast by 6%.
Among brokers not covered daily by FNArena, Moelis noted Bellevue’s attractive valuation supported by ongoing improvement in production, exploration success and the closure of hedging: https://fnarena.com/2026/09/25/in-brief-l1-group-storage-king-bellevue-gold/
Capstone Copper is next on the earnings upgrade list.
Ord Minnett considered the sale of the Cozamin mine in Mexico (to Luca Mining for up to US$385m) supportive of the balance sheet and management’s ability to fund the large Santo Domingo copper project, where a final investment decision is targeted for late 2026.
Removing Cozamin from its valuation prompted this broker to lower its target to $15.00 from $15.50. With less upside to the revised target, Ord Minnett downgraded Capstone to Hold from Buy.
Ord Minnett nevertheless expects support from copper prices, which remain above its long-term assumption of US$5.50/lb.
Global gaming technology and content company Light & Wonder is next, with average earnings forecasts rising 16%, despite three brokers noting a mixed operating backdrop.
UBS highlighted broadly stable premium gaming performance in August, with Light & Wonder maintaining solid premium leased results and gaining representation among leading new outright-sale games.
Ord Minnett also identified mild upside for land-based gaming, although weakness in social casino remains a headwind that could be partly managed through cost reductions, including lower user-acquisition spending.
Looking ahead, Citi noted Light & Wonder has recently concentrated on variants of existing titles but expects management to unveil more new parent games at the upcoming Global Gaming Expo, providing a potential source of fresh momentum.
Premier Investments also enjoyed an increase in consensus earnings forecast. Commentary on the company’s in-line FY26 results last week is available in the Monitor, while FNArena will also be publishing an article on Premier early this week.
Elsewhere, Dyno Nobel’s average target price rose 4% last week after Morgans raised its target to $4.42 from $3.46 following management’s presentation of its longer-term growth ambitions at the company’s annual Investor Day: https://fnarena.com/2026/09/21/dyno-nobel-blasting-into-defence-earnings/
Buy ratings represent 62.37% of all ratings in the FNArena database. Neutral/Hold ratings are 30.08%, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 7.55%.
Upgrade
AMP LIMITED ((AMP)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 5/0/0
Macquarie upgrades AMP to Outperform from Neutral with the analyst emphasising the Chinese partnerships now generating around 29% of group EBIT as of 1H2026 and the CLPV joint venture is growing in terms of importance.
The broker notes the value of the stake is $589m, and recent minority transactions have been at 2.7x-3.1x times book value, which is double the value of AMP's holding.
EPS forecasts are upgraded by 7% for FY2026 and 15% for FY2027 with the target price moving to $2.92 from $2.28.
EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED ((EVN)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 3/3/0
UBS raises its target for Evolution Mining to $16.00 from around $15.25 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral following recent site visits.
The broker sees a pathway to more than 900kozpa of gold and around 120ktpa of copper production by FY32.
Cowal offers the strongest growth opportunity, with the analysts increasing the assumed underground mining rate to around 4Mtpa and forecasting production above 400kozpa.
Northparkes is also seen as offering upside through improved recoveries and longer-term expansion.
Despite elevated capital expenditure, UBS forecasts 4%-5% free cash flow (FCF) yields and $2.4bn of dividends over the next three years.
GLOBAL LITHIUM RESOURCES LIMITED ((GL1)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/0/0
Today, management at Global Lithium Resources has announced the company has entered into a binding Scheme Implementation Deed with Titan Australia Mining Pty Ltd.
Titan is proposing to acquire 100% of the shares in Global Lithium Resources for $1.15/share. At 10:50am AEST, shares were trading up 52% to $1.01.
Yesterday, Ord Minnett raised its target for Global Lithium Resources to 85c from 60c and upgrades its rating to Buy from Hold following the acquisition of IGO Ltd's ((IGO's)) Nova project for -$7m.
The broker believes using Nova's existing processing infrastructure materially improves the economics and development prospects of Global Lithium's Manna lithium project in Western Australia.
Combined with recently secured funding from Jiangsu Lopal Tech Group, the acquisition is expected to reduce Manna's funding shortfall to around -$175m from -$480m.
These capital savings are partly offset by higher operating costs associated with trucking Manna ore to Nova for processing, the analyst explains.
Commentary adds integration study envisages annual production of 257kt of spodumene concentrate and earnings (EBITDA) breakeven at an SC6 price of US$870/t, with production targeted by mid-2027.
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