Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday October 12 to Friday October 16, 2026
Total Upgrades: 17
Total Downgrades: 14
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 64.78%; Hold 28.31%; Sell 6.91%
For the week ending Friday, 16 October 2026, the seven stockbrokers monitored daily by FNArena issued seventeen ratings upgrades and fourteen downgrades for individual ASX-listed companies.
Ratings upgrades have outnumbered downgrades since mid-September, reversing a negative trend that began in late May and persisted throughout the August reporting season.
Following falls in consensus earnings forecasts of -26% and -14%, respectively, uranium miner Paladin Energy and lithium producer PLS Group each received two ratings upgrades from separate brokers last week on a weaker share price.
Paladin’s Langer Heinrich uranium production of 1.0mlbs missed consensus of 1.16mlbs due to a planned shutdown and lower recoveries, although mining performance improved, Morgans noted.
Ord Minnett suspected record throughput would be required to achieve the lower end of unchanged FY27 production guidance of 5.1mlbs-5.6mlbs.
Morgans identified longer-term growth potential from the development of Patterson Lake South in Canada and exploration upside at the nearby Atlas discovery.
Following further lithium price weakness, Morgans cut commodity forecasts and stock targets, while Bell Potter downgraded its near-term outlook, citing weaker Chinese sentiment and forecasts of a modest market surplus in 2027.
Bell Potter upgraded PLS Group to Buy, anticipating substantial earnings from restarting the Ngungaju processing plant at prevailing lithium prices.
Morgans upgraded to Accumulate, preferring PLS Group over Liontown for its stronger balance sheet, proven operational execution and lower-cost assets.
The tables below show percentage rises and falls in target prices were broadly similar last week, while the magnitude of increases in average earnings forecasts at the top of the table below was greater.
Australian IT services and technology solutions provider Data#3 received a 10% lift in consensus target from brokers after releasing a better-than-anticipated trading update showing robust conditions to start FY27.
Ahead of the 2026 AGM, management indicated gross sales and earnings were tracking ahead of expectations for the first half of FY27.
While raising forecasts and targets, both Morgans and Bell Potter considered the stock fairly valued --post strong rally-- and maintained their respective Hold-equivalent ratings.
Viva Energy is next with a near 7% increase in average target.
Macquarie raised its refining margin forecasts as constrained global capacity continued to support middle-distillate markets.
Expecting some of the exceptional strength seen in 2026 to persist, the broker lifted its second-half 2026 refining margin forecast to US$24.40/bbl, 12% above consensus.
Morgan Stanley highlighted persistently tight refining capacity and continues to favour downstream over upstream energy exposure.
In downgrading its rating to Neutral from Buy, UBS noted recent measures to increase crude oil and diesel supply could moderate refining margins.
This broker regarded current share price weakness in peer Ampol as the best way to increase sector exposure.
Lifestyle Communities and Champion Iron head the table for negative changes to targets with respective falls of -16% and -11%.
Following Lifestyle Communities’ September-quarter trading update, Ord Minnett lowered its target to $4.25 from $4.90 but upgraded its rating to Hold from Lighten on valuation grounds.
Softer settlement expectations prompted reductions in this broker’s FY27 and FY28 operating EPS forecasts of -11.9% and -13.6%, respectively.
While new home sales remained steady, settlement execution is seen as the key concern.
Citi suggested potential M&A activity as a possible offset to share price weakness arising from further downside risks to sales.
Following weaker-than-expected September-quarter iron ore price realisations, UBS lowered its target for Champion Iron to $3.60 from $4.10 and retained its Buy rating.
Sales volumes recovered by around 35% as port inventories unwound, but elevated freight costs and disappointing product premiums weighed on realised prices.
FNArena will publish an article on Champion Iron, highlighting the growing value of its high-purity iron ore exposure as steelmakers increasingly pursue lower-emission production.
PLS Group is next for negative change to targets, accompanied by fellow lithium exposures Mineral Resources and Liontown given the above-mentioned revisions to lithium price forecasts by Morgans and Bell Potter.
Positive changes to brokers’ commodity price forecasts last week had a significant impact on earnings forecasts including copper producers Sandfire Resources and AIC Mines, along with Whitehaven Coal, Woodside Energy and Santos.
In raising its copper price forecasts, Ord Minnett noted prices rose 6% during the September quarter, supported by expectations of stronger data centre demand and supply constraints stemming from sulphuric acid shortages and operational disruptions.
Morgan Stanley remained positive on copper given tight market fundamentals but stressed the importance of valuations.
The broker forecasts a copper deficit in 2027, driven by mine supply constraints, Chinese restocking and US stockpiling.
This broker also forecast higher gas prices, while constrained Indonesian supply and Indian restocking were expected to support thermal coal prices. Restrictions on Chinese mine production were also seen as underpinning metallurgical coal prices.
Similarly, Ord Minnett raised its met and thermal coal price forecasts by 4% for 2027.
Citi raised its 2026 core earnings forecasts for Woodside Energy and Santos by double-digit percentages on higher energy prices, while escalating US-Iran tensions prompted UBS to also raise its Brent oil price forecasts.
Separately, earnings forecasts for Minerals 260 benefited from grade control, infill and extension drilling results at Bullabulling.
For the third successive week, Megaport appears in one of the positive change tables below, this time for a 22% lift in average earnings forecast.
Citi highlighted ongoing increases in GPU rental pricing as evidence of robust demand despite declining AI token prices. Bell Potter revised its forecasts higher following recent contract announcements, acknowledging its initial estimates may have been too conservative.
All else being equal, these broker updates would typically support a share price rise, but negative global sentiment towards neoclouds has weighed on Megaport, potentially overlooking its differentiated business model.
Bell Potter recently highlighted the company’s strategy of developing a globally distributed AI inference cloud rather than building physical data centres, offering a comparatively capital-light approach to AI infrastructure.
Turning to negative changes in earnings forecasts, here Bell Potter’s latest research resulted in a -34% fall for Storage King.
Bell Potter highlighted rising marginal funding costs since the FY26 reporting season, as reflected in higher bond yields.
The assumed risk-free rate assumption was increased by 25bps to 4.75% across Bell Potter’s sector coverage. Storage King was downgraded to Sell from Hold and the target lowered to $1.05 from $1.25.
With a fall in consensus earnings forecast of around -9%, global shareholding services company Computershare is next on the list below.
UBS noted subdued capital markets activity in the first quarter of FY27, with corporate actions declining -9% and US corporate trust debt issuance falling -25%.
Elsewhere, Ord Minnett reviewed its insurance and diversified financials coverage to reflect movements in equity and fixed income markets, along with changes in exchange rates.
Expecting Computershare to benefit from the higher interest rate environment, Ord Minnett upgraded its rating for Computershare to Accumulate from Hold while maintaining its $43.75 target.
Buy ratings now represent 64.78% of all ratings in the FNArena database, up from 63.36% in the prior week. Neutral/Hold ratings take up 28.31%, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 6.91%.
Upgrade
AMPOL LIMITED ((ALD)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 4/0/0
UBS upgrades Ampol to Buy from Neutral with a higher target price of $47.75 from $41.50. EPS forecasts are raised for 2027 by 8.5% and 2028 by 2.5%. The upgrade reflects the stock's relative underperformance against Viva Energy and attractive valuation.
The federal government's Phase 2 review of the Fuel Security Services Payment (FSSP), due by the end of 2026, could provide additional support for domestic oil refining beyond 2030, benefiting Ampol and Viva.
The broker assumes government support will deliver an internal rate of return of around 14% on incremental refinery refurbishment capex through to 2040 for both companies.
Ampol is now the most preferred exposure and UBS reiterates the path to "normalisation" will be slow, even if there is an abatement in geopolitical tensions.
AMP LIMITED ((AMP)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/1/0
Ord Minnett reviews its coverage of the insurance and diversified financials sector to account for developments in equity and fixed income markets as well as exchange rate movements.
Although earnings changes are modest for AMP, the broker envisages stronger terminal growth rates for the business and this contributes to a rise in the target to $2.80 from $2.50. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate on valuation.
BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED ((BSL)) Upgrade to Buy from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/2/0
Ord Minnett assesses BlueScope Steel is positioned to exceed earnings guidance for the first half of FY27 amid strength in US hot rolled coil spreads. The spread has risen over the last year on resilient demand and reduced imports because of higher tariffs.
Low stocks and longer lead times suggest elevated spreads could persist for longer than previously anticipated. The broker revises first half EBIT estimates up to $976m and raises FY27 EBIT by 18.1% and FY28 by 20.5%.
The rating is upgraded to Buy from Lighten. A stronger earnings outlook and expectations that the valuation gap to US-listed peers should narrow underpin the change.
The US business is now valued at a modest discount to US-listed peers rather than on a discounted cash flow basis and the target is raised to $35.50 from $29.00 as a result.
The full story is for FNArena subscribers only. To read the full story plus enjoy a free two-week trial to our service SIGN UP HERE
If you already had your free trial, why not join as a paying subscriber? CLICK HERE