Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Across gold, gas and medtech, Black Cat, Amplitude Energy and Singular Health highlight how execution, de-risking and commercial validation can quickly reshape the investment outlook.
- Black Cat’s punishment understandable, but maybe also too harsh?
- Amplitude Energy moves East Coast gas project into execution
- Singular Health targets major US healthcare expansion
By Danielle Ecuyer
This week’s quote comes from Deutsche Bank (on US equities):
"(...) from end-July to mid-September, tech-exposed stocks within the S&P500 rose 14% while the remainder declined 3%.
"This divergence highlights the concentration of market returns in the tech-exposed sector.
"In late July, our strategists anticipated a rotation back into technology, which remains underway."
Value emerging post punishment?
Moelis notes Black Cat Syndicate ((BC8)) announced its first formal guidance for FY27. Alas, management's first proved well below expectations, hence why the shares lost -24.74% in response.
FY27 production is guided to 80koz-90koz compared to Moelis's prior forecast of 109koz, with the new forecast set at 83koz, a decline of -23.8%.
AISC has come in at $3,500/oz-$3,800/oz compared to the broker’s previous forecast of $3,470/oz. That forecast has now been revised up to $4,033/oz, or a 7.8% rise, largely due to the lower production.
Exploration spend has been guided to -$30m-$50m.
EPS forecasts are downgraded by -43.3% for FY27 and -43.9% for FY28, as lower production and higher costs bite.
Moelis points out total ore reserve tonnage rose to 5.3Mt from 4.4Mt, with the average grade falling to 1.6g/t from 2.4g/t, which has resulted in contained gold falling by -17.6%, or -58koz, to 272koz.
Kal East’s tonnage rose 0.9Mt, but the ore grade declined to 1.4g/t from 2.0g/t, lowering contained gold by -28koz.
The analyst notes Paulsens tonnage was basically unchanged, but ore grade fell to 2.9g/t from 4.3g/t, which equates to a -30koz reduction in contained gold.
Moelis bemoans how challenging it has been to stay on top of Black Cat’s metrics since starting coverage in November 2025. Issues around the lack of transparency from the prior JV/toll agreements, as well as the outdated Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves, have complicated production forecasts.
An unexpected management change has also deferred the prior updated corporate strategy, which hasn’t assisted sentiment, along with the slower ramp-up at Kal East.
Moelis is disappointed with the company and believes the latest guidance downgrade delays the stock’s appeal for institutional investors. Arguably, with the market caught out by the overly optimistic forecast for FY27 production of around 110koz, the broker queries how long management has been aware of the situation.
The target price has fallen to 90c from $1.60. The Buy rating remains in place with Moelis suggesting the cheaper share price improves the stock’s appeal, even on a lower FY27 outlook.
An unwarranted valuation discount
Amplitude Energy's ((AEL)) East Coast Gas Supply Project (ECSP) has reached its final investment decision and moves the project into the execution phase, Euroz Hartleys points out, which is focused on the Annie, Juliet and Artisan gas fields.
The recent Juliet gas discovery has been completed and has a positive composition, including 1% CO2 and a 55MMscf/d flow rate, which is viewed as de-risking production.
First gas is slated for 2028, with gross production of around 90TJ/d for at least four years using the currently underutilised Athena Gas Plant with 150TJ/d capacity.
The broker explains the Nestor exploration well, which is aiming for 32.1PJ of net mean 2U Prospective Resources, has an 81% chance of success, with Amplitude approved and committed to the net drilling/completion cost of -$70m-$80m.
Nestor will follow drilling of the Annie-2 production well, which is starting soon, as well as being linked into the ECSP infrastructure if successful. Annie-2 has the potential to offer future gas reserves and production life/increased rates of over 100TJ/d.
Euroz views the final investment decision as underpinning more certainty around the scope of ECSP, as well as timing and costs, while meeting Amplitude’s 35PJ gas sales agreements with AGL Energy ((AGL)) and EnergyAustralia.
The contracted gas sales are around $455m at $13/GJ. The broker also notes FY27 capex guidance rises to -$320m-$390m from -$250m-$310m due to Nestor inclusion and is largely in line with consensus forecasts.
A Buy rating is retained with a target price of $2.68, down from $2.80.
The stock is trading at what the analyst sees as a significant discount. Despite Amplitude making good progress on the ECSP, the stock’s valuation is viewed as more akin to the sell-off post the exploration well failures at Elanora/Isabella.
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