Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday September 28 to Friday October 2, 2026
Total Upgrades: 29
Total Downgrades: 10
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 63.40%; Hold 29.31%; Sell 7.30%
For the week ending Friday, 2 October 2026, the seven stockbrokers monitored daily by FNArena issued twenty-nine ratings upgrades and ten downgrades for individual ASX-listed companies.
HomeCo Daily Needs REIT and mining royalty company Deterra Royalties both received two ratings upgrades apiece to Buy from separate brokers.
The REIT, which invests in convenience-based retail assets spanning neighbourhood shopping centres and large-format retail properties, continues to deliver “solid” operational performance, according to Macquarie, while trading at a -31% discount to net tangible assets.
Similarly, Bell Potter last week suggested the stock was oversold given the share price had fallen -13.3% since its FY26 result in August and underperformed peers over the past three months, a decline this broker suggested was disproportionate to the slight deterioration in underlying earnings.
Earnings are expected to trough in FY27 before returning to growth in FY28.
For Deterra Royalties, UBS highlighted a significant discount to BHP Group’s Mining Area C long-life iron ore cash flows, with little value being attributed to growth opportunities at Thacker Pass and the recently acquired Santa Cruz copper royalty.
Last week, management announced it had secured a 1.75% net smelter return royalty over around 84% of Ivanhoe Electric’s Santa Cruz copper project, which UBS valued at around US$130m versus the -US$74.2m acquisition cost.
Santa Cruz represents an “important” strategic step in building Deterra’s critical minerals platform, this broker suggested. The UBS target rose to $4.80 from $4.50.
Lending further support to Deterra’s core iron ore valuation, Ord Minnett adjudged bulk commodities to offer a more attractive risk-reward balance than base metals in last week’s general commodity review.
This is particularly the case for iron ore, the broker noted, where elevated energy and freight costs are squeezing higher-cost producers and could force some supply from the market. Target lowered by -10c to $4.80.
As the tables below show, percentage rises and falls for both average target prices and average earnings forecasts were broadly balanced last week.
Codan recorded the largest increase in average broker target at 36% after management upgraded interim FY27 guidance just six weeks after releasing FY26 results, driven by surging demand for unmanned aircraft systems: https://fnarena.com/2026/09/30/codans-growth-goes-even-more-exponential/
Megaport follows next with a 6% rise in average target although first-time research by Bell Potter resulted in -24% slippage in consensus earnings forecast for FY26.
Beginning with a Buy rating and $27 target, Bell Potter highlighted Megaport as one of the few direct ASX exposures to neocloud providers and a beneficiary of strong growth in AI inference computing demand.
Even when other neocloud providers list on the ASX, the broker considers Megaport differentiated by its strategy of building a globally distributed AI inference cloud rather than physical data centres, resulting in a less capital-intensive model.
Synlait Milk (July year-end) tops the rise in average earnings forecast list after beating its own guidance for FY26 results as explained in FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor commentary: https://fnarena.com/2026/10/02/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-02-10-2026/
AIC Mines follows with a 48% boost to average earnings forecast after Morgans initiated coverage with a Buy rating and $1.20 target.
The company is viewed as one of the more compelling ways to gain exposure to a structurally tight copper market.
The Eloise plant expansion and Jericho ramp-up will establish a dual-mine operation and almost double copper production by FY29, the broker explained, while the recent acquisition of Mt Cuthbert provides further exploration upside.
It’s felt the market is underestimating the largely funded near-doubling of copper production, with delivery of the expansion on schedule considered key to a re-rating.
New Hope’s average earnings forecast rose 21% after Outperform-rated Macquarie raised its target by $1.00 to $7.40, citing support for thermal coal production via volume growth at New Acland and Bengalla’s return to a 13.5mtpa run-of-mine run rate.
The company’s 25.97% interest in Malabar provides additional metallurgical coal growth exposure, Macquarie noted.
As covered in the Results Monitor, New Hope recently released its FY26 results.
On the flipside, the average target for iron ore miner Champion Iron in the FNArena database fell by -19%, reflecting initiation of coverage by UBS with a Buy rating and $4.15 target, along with Macquarie cutting its target to $4.80 from $6.80.
UBS expects iron ore markets to remain broadly balanced over the medium term, with prices supported by cost inflation and resilient, albeit moderating, steel demand.
The broker explained product grade is more important than the outright iron ore price, with growing demand for premium steelmaking inputs, declining seaborne ore quality and increasing blending requirements supporting ultra-high-grade producers.
The market underappreciates Champion Iron’s premium-grade product suite, according to UBS, and the potential for improved premium capture as the Direct Reduction Pellet Feed facility ramps up.
Macquarie retained its Outperform rating on Champion Iron, with the investment case centred on converting Bloom Lake’s (mining complex in Quebec) high-purity ore into higher-value direct-reduction pellet feed.
The Direct Reduction Pellet Feed facility has produced its first saleable material, with the ramp-up offering scope for improved product realisations, while the acquisition of Norwegian iron ore producer Rana Gruber broadens Champion Iron’s high-purity iron ore portfolio, the broker explained.
Bellevue Gold heads up the table for the largest fall in average earnings forecast.
While the company is one of Macquarie’s preferred mid-cap gold stocks, the broker has turned more cautious on gold near term, citing higher real yields, sticky inflation and a stronger US dollar.
More positively, central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over Fed independence are seen as providing support for the yellow metal.
Healius comes next with an around -55% fall in consensus FY26 earnings forecast after agreeing to sell Agilex Biolabs to Novotech for $160m, with net proceeds of around $155m expected to leave the company in a net cash position.
Morgans noted the sale reduces equity-raising risk and retained its Hold rating while lowering its target to 40c from 43c (to account for a smaller business).
While highlighting increased capital-management flexibility, Macquarie (Neutral; target down -3c to 43c) remained cautious due to pathology wage pressures, subdued GP attendances and margin recovery.
Elsewhere, forecast earnings for lithium stocks fell after Macquarie incorporated a softer medium-term price outlook, lowering spodumene price assumptions by -1% to -5% across 2026-2028.
These changes negatively impacted Wildcat Resources, Mineral Resources, IGO Ltd and Liontown in the earnings forecast table below.
Macquarie's target for Outperform-rated Liontown was lowered by -25c to $1.25, leading to second place on the week's table for negative change to consensus target.
Buy ratings represent 63.40% of all ratings in the FNArena database. Neutral/Hold ratings are 29.31%, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 7.30%.
Upgrade
ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED ((AQZ)) Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/1/0
Morgans upgrades Alliance Aviation Services to Speculative Buy from Hold with a higher target price of 85c from 75c. The risk premium ascribed on the stock has been lowered to 20%.
The analyst explains FY26 PBT met expectations, albeit on a mixed underlying performance for revenue and costs.
Management has reset its largest wet lease contract, and achieved more positive terms, with the fleet continuing to lower to 23 aircraft from 30 expected in FY27.
Gearing leverage is expected to be lowered to around 2.1x net debt/underlying EBITDA in FY27 and management has flagged improved profitability, margins and cash generation in the current fiscal year post the new contract.
Morgans believes the management's strategic reset has "materially" changed the investment proposition for Alliance.
BEACH ENERGY LIMITED ((BPT)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/4/3
Macquarie upgrades Beach Energy to Neutral from Underperform and the target to $0.85 from $0.80. The shares are down -38% since the results and now considered more fairly valued. The broker also assesses the first quarter should reveal a better performance from both Waitsia and Otway.
No value is yet ascribed to the growing Taroom Trough exposure but Macquarie observes there is upside potential that should become better understood over time.
The broker's 2027 oil & spot gas price forecasts are raised, with the first quarter Brent now forecast at US$89/bbl from US$64/bbl previously and the second quarter at US$82/bbl from US$66/bbl. WTI is now forecast at US$83/bbl in the first quarter compared with the prior forecast of US$60/bbl and the second quarter US$76/bbl versus US$62/bbl.
CODAN LIMITED ((CDA)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 3/1/0
Bell Potter upgrades Codan to Buy from Hold with a higher target of $60 from $54 with the analyst expecting upgrades in Communications Services revenues over FY27.
The analyst asserts the Comm Services division can meet 20% revenue guidance for FY27 dependent on the supply chain remaining resilient, with scope for the target to be beaten.
There has been a "surge" in the growth in Group 2 unmanned platforms used in conflict zones, year-to-date, but the broker flags some caution as Silvus, a competitor, brings new capacity online in early 2027.
Re Zetron, commentary suggests management's 10%-15% growth target over the longer term is feasible and momentum remains robust post the introduction of new products for Minelab in the rest of the world and Africa.
EBIT forecasts rise 4% for FY28 and 8% for FY29.
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