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This story features BOSS ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies.
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The company is included in ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
After several quiet weeks, activity across U308 markets sprung to life, with sellers prepared to action transactions at higher prices.
- Uranium spot market roars back to life as buyers return
- Utilities seek price certainty as term-market momentum builds
- Analysts divided over Boss Energy's expansion strategy
By Danielle Ecuyer
What a difference a week makes
It’s not a stretch to describe last week’s activity as having “surged”.
Industry consultants TradeTech registered fourteen transactions in the U3O8 spot market, with over 1.1mlbs in trades undertaken, which resulted in the weekly spot price advancing US$3.50/lb to US$93.25/lb.
The spot price is now up 13% from a year ago and up 13.7% year-to-date in 2026.
Post the NEI International Uranium Fuel Seminar (October 19-21), sellers were described as “upbeat” on the mid-to-long-term U3O8 prospects.
Positive sentiment was further boosted by the entry of a non-US utility into the U3O8 spot market on Monday, underpinning a rise in offer prices. In turn, this spurred on additional demand from a varied suite of buyers.
Following multiple transactions, TradeTech’s daily U3O8 price indicator rose to US$91.25/lb on Tuesday. Wednesday evidenced more demand, with two transactions at US$92.50/lb and one transaction for 100klbs of U3O8 for delivery in December at Orano’s Comurhex facility in France.
A second transaction for the purchase of 50klbs U3O8 in December at ConverDyn’s Metropolis Works facility in the US was concluded.
Sellers who had previously abstained entered the market on Thursday, with four transactions concluded across prices from US$91.50/lb to US$93/lb for delivery of materials at respectively Cameco’s Port Hope facility and at Comurhex.
Multiple transactions were conducted on Friday, with the week’s final transaction at US$93.25/lb for delivery in December at ConverDyn.
As highlighted by TradeTech, market momentum transcended into the U3O8 term market across both the mid-to-long-term markets.
Two utilities entered the mid-term market, with multiple sellers indicating they are expecting more buyers to join in over the coming weeks.
Sellers who had not been prepared to enter serious discussions with possible buyers have now changed course, with several discussions in train for both mid- and long-term delivery periods.
Base prices have moved up, which infers utilities are seeking to mitigate exposure to more market-based pricing, while several are looking for a higher percentage of base-escalated or fixed pricing to hedge against potential market price volatility.
The TradeTech spot price volatility for last week moved up to 20.2% on an annualised basis.
As per October 30, TradeTech’s Mid-term price indicator stood at US$91/lb and the Long-term price indicator at US$97/lb.
October in brief
TradeTech’s month-end uranium spot price indicator rose to US$93.25/lb, up US$3.50/lb from September 30.
For most of October, the spot price had traded between US$89.70/lb and US$90/lb until the closing week, when, as described above, activity and prices surged.
TradeTech’s Mid-Term price indicator rose to US$95/lb from US$91/lb in September, and the Long-Term price indicator lifted to US$99/lb from US$97/lb.
Total reported transaction volume for October was just over 2.5mlbs, while TradeTech’s monthly production price indicator came in at US$63/lb for U308, 5.4% above last year’s equivalent of US$59.80/lb and the highest value since the indicator’s inception in April 2020.
Clearly, higher input costs are equally making themselves felt across the uranium industry, with the added observation that indicative prices received remain much higher.
In other macro news, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s latest outlook for global nuclear capacity has advanced for a sixth consecutive year. Capacity could rise to between 641GW and 1045GW by 2050 from 377GW at the end of 2025.
The Agency has indicated 417 nuclear power reactors are currently in operation across 31 countries, with a further 78 reactors under construction in 17 countries, reflecting around 81GW of capacity, while some 60 countries are considering introducing nuclear power.
Postcards from Australia
Boss Energy’s ((BOE)) 1Q27 production of 359klbs U3O8 exceeded consensus, with C1 costs of $47/lb and AISC of $79/lb remaining below FY27 guidance despite weather disruptions.
Management reaffirmed FY27 production guidance of 1.25mlbs–1.3mlbs and announced encouraging early results from its new wide-spaced wellfield strategy.
Management is aiming to expand Honeymoon into a regional production hub of up to 2.5mlbs p.a. over the longer term, but as stressed by Ord Minnett, the development risks remain considerable.
Ord Minnett also flags the potential for an additional cash contribution to the suspended Alta Mesa operation as a downside risk, with initial leaching results from EKT1 expected in the December quarter.
Sell rating and $1 target unchanged.
For Bell Potter, the 1Q production was well above expectations and costs lower-than-anticipated, while PLS tenor slipped to 43mg/L from 49mg/L in the previous quarter. Sales came in at 301klb at an average realised price of US$82/lb.
Notably, production at Alta Mesa, of which Boss has a 30% stake, remains paused, awaiting state permits anticipated for the current quarter that should facilitate the development of new wellfields.
Boss had cash and liquid investments of $71m at the end of 1Q27 versus $91m at the end of 4Q26, with inventory of 1.6Mlb and no debt. The book value for inventory stood at $124m compared to $116m for 1.6Mlb at the end of the prior quarter.
As observed by Ord Minnett, management reiterated FY27 guidance, which infers to Bell Potter that costs will move higher as PLS tenor declines as existing wellfields mature.
EPS forecasts are raised for FY27 and unchanged for FY28/FY29, with a lower FY27 realised price assumption to reflect lower-priced legacy contracts, somewhat offset by lower unit costs.
Bell Potter retains a Buy rating and $1.70 target price.
Citi explained there are signs that support management’s strategic wider wellfield concept, with the December quarter flagged as a “key test” of connectivity as leaching starts.
Citi also points out the proposal to include Gould’s Dam and Jason’s deposits offers considerable potential to leverage existing infrastructure, lower capex intensity and extend life of mine.
The approval of the Honeymoon mine extension is also highlighted for this quarter and could offer the stock more momentum.
Citi upgrades Boss to Buy from Neutral with a $1.75 target price.
Deep Yellow ((DYL)) announced its September quarter update, with the period challenged by management’s decision to defer the FID for Tumas, which Canaccord Genuity describes as “pragmatic”.
Regarding funding, current equity markets are demanding too high a price, the analyst points out, with management leaving all funding options on the table. At the end of the quarter, Deep Yellow had cash of $145m and no debt.
Management has retained its current development timeline, with first production slated for late 2028, but the ability to meet that target will depend on equity markets. Canaccord is forecasting first production for 2H2029.
Deep Yellow is considered the most leveraged ASX exposure to the U3O8 price, which the broker remains upbeat on. A Speculative Buy rating is retained with a target price of $2.80.
Turning to Lotus Resources ((LOT)), Ord Minnett notes the final Namibian approval needed to export U3O8 from Kayelekera has been received, with the first shipment of around 145klb to leave next week prior to a shipment from Walvis Bay in November.
Cash revenue should be received before the end of 2026. Ord Minnett upgrades the stock to Speculative Buy from Speculative Hold, with a 25c target price retained.
With the removal of the permitting overhang, investors can now focus on the operational performance of Kayelekera. As previously announced, September quarter production was only 100klbs of U3O8 due to challenges with acid supply availability, the ramp-up of the acid supply plant and power issues.
Canaccord Genuity retains a Speculative Buy rating and 70c target price. The approval to transport U3O8 through Zambia for shipment from Walvis Bay, Namibia, is viewed positively.
Barrenjoey continues to forecast the need for more funding in 2H2027 either through debt, equity of prepayments.
This analyst wants more certainty around the timing of first cash flows, and hence, retains a Neutral rating and 50c target price.
Short interests
After considerable selling pressure on U308 stocks, equity buyers have also returned with vigour.
Shares in Bannerman Energy ((BMN)) advanced 12.3% last week, with Boss up 16.2%, Deep Yellow up 5.9%, Lotus up 12.1% and Paladin Energy up 8.6%.
Short positions remained relatively stable according to the latest ASIC data as at 27 October.
Lotus sits in third position at 15.74% shorted, Boss Energy at 15% in sixth position, Paladin in seventh position at 14.57% and Deep Yellow in eleventh position at 11.33%, up from 10.58%.
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 30/10/2026 | 0.0420 |  – 2.33% | $0.16 | $0.04 | |||
| AEE | 30/10/2026 | 0.0740 |  8.82% | $0.25 | $0.07 | |||
| AEU | 30/10/2026 | 0.3700 | 8.82% | $0.75 | $0.22 | $0.800 | 116.2% | |
| AGE | 30/10/2026 | 0.0340 | 9.68% | $0.06 | $0.02 | $0.080 | 135.3% | |
| AKN | 30/10/2026 | 0.0100 | – 9.09% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 30/10/2026 | 0.0350 | 0.00% | $0.12 | $0.03 | |||
| BKY | 30/10/2026 | 0.8200 | 13.89% | $0.99 | $0.37 | |||
| BMN | 30/10/2026 | 3.3700 | 12.33% | $5.25 | $2.77 | $4.433 | 31.6% | |
| BOE | 30/10/2026 | 1.4000 | 16.18% | $2.15 | $1.00 | 16.1 | $1.521 | 8.7% |
| BSN | 30/10/2026 | 0.0190 | – 5.00% | $0.07 | $0.02 | |||
| C29 | 30/10/2026 | 0.0200 | -13.04% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 30/10/2026 | 0.2100 | 7.69% | $0.43 | $0.12 | 4.2 | $0.340 | 61.9% |
| CXU | 30/10/2026 | 0.0620 | 16.98% | $0.17 | $0.02 | |||
| DEV | 30/10/2026 | 0.1700 | 13.33% | $0.33 | $0.12 | $0.400 | 135.3% | |
| DYL | 30/10/2026 | 0.7150 | 5.93% | $2.97 | $0.67 | -51.1 | $1.925 | 169.2% |
| EF2 | 30/10/2026 | 11.3400 | 5.68% | $22.50 | $10.55 | |||
| EL8 | 30/10/2026 | 0.2100 | 7.69% | $0.49 | $0.19 | |||
| HAR | 30/10/2026 | 0.0520 | -24.64% | $0.23 | $0.05 | |||
| I88 | 30/10/2026 | 0.1200 | 0.00% | $0.43 | $0.10 | |||
| KOB | 30/10/2026 | 0.0220 | – 4.35% | $0.07 | $0.02 | |||
| LAM | 30/10/2026 | 0.4600 | – 8.00% | $0.93 | $0.42 | |||
| LOT | 30/10/2026 | 0.1850 | 12.12% | $3.20 | $0.16 | $0.250 | 35.1% | |
| MEU | 30/10/2026 | 0.0770 | 5.48% | $0.19 | $0.05 | |||
| NHU | 30/10/2026 | 0.0650 | 0.00% | $0.20 | $0.06 | |||
| NXG | 30/10/2026 | 12.2300 | 7.19% | $20.47 | $11.34 | -88.4 | $16.300 | 33.3% |
| ORP | 30/10/2026 | 0.0870 | 8.75% | $0.16 | $0.04 | |||
| PDN | 30/10/2026 | 7.4700 | 8.58% | $15.10 | $6.82 | 48.8 | $11.807 | 58.1% |
| PEN | 30/10/2026 | 0.1850 | 0.00% | $1.08 | $0.16 | |||
| POW | 30/10/2026 | 0.1700 | 0.00% | $0.27 | $0.16 | |||
| SLX | 30/10/2026 | 3.3300 | 3.42% | $10.25 | $3.19 | |||
| WCN | 30/10/2026 | 0.5000 | 2280.95% | $0.50 | $0.01 |
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