Weekly Reports | 10:30 AM
A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past.
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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DYNO NOBEL LIMITED ((DNL)) Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden maintains its overweight rating for Dyno Nobel with its target price unchanged at $4.10 ahead of the FY26 result release on 9 November.
Jarden notes that investor focus will centre on the trajectory towards the FY28 EBIT ambition of $600m and details regarding balance sheet capacity utilisation.
Tight market conditions in Dyno North Americas and sustained growth in Asia Pacific operations are expected to support performance.
EMERALD RESOURCES NL ((EMR)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Canaccord Genuity upgrades its rating for Emerald Resources to Buy from Hold with its target price lowered to $7.30 from $7.40 following a recent share price pullback and the release of its September quarter report for the Okvau Gold Mine.
Okvau production softened to 20koz at an AISC of US$1,210/oz due to mine sequencing requirements under the Stage 6 cutback and lower head grades of 1.23g/t, though mill throughput increased to 597kt.
Management reiterated FY27 production guidance of 100koz–115koz from Okvau, while Canaccord Genuity updates its model to reflect delayed commissioning at Memot and compressed development capital at Dingo Range.
The company finished the quarter with a robust balance sheet comprising $483m in cash and $30m in bullion, supporting its multi-asset production growth strategy.
FIREFLY METALS LIMITED ((FFM)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Moelis upgrades its rating for FireFly Metals to Buy from Hold with a $1.70 target price following a quarterly activities report detailing the progress of the Green Bay project.
Moelis updates models to account for a recent equity raising, resulting in a September quarter closing cash position of $337m to support the delivery of a definitive feasibility study in early 2027 and a subsequent final investment decision.
The analyst highlights that the recent pullback in the share price appears overdone, creating an attractive entry point that diverges from strong underlying copper market fundamentals and the continued de-risking of the asset from an aggressive exploration phase into early development.
While noting execution risks shift towards permitting and construction, the potential for further camp-scale exploration upside and vulnerability to corporate activity at current valuation levels reinforce the positive investment view.
SKYCITY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED ((SKC)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden upgrades its rating for SkyCity Entertainment to Buy from Overweight with its target price increased to NZ$1.15 from NZ$0.80 after the company offered more definitive clarity on value maximisation strategies following recent regulatory scrutiny, operational adjustments, and major capital projects.
Jarden calculates a pro-forma mid-cycle EBITDA of NZ$233m for the company's future underlying earnings power, excluding the Grand Hotel and Adelaide properties.
This assessment assumes successful cost-out execution, a reasonable contribution from regulated online gaming, and a mid-cycle economic uplift.
While underlying earnings estimates remain largely unchanged, the broker has now allocated a 50% weighting to a control valuation scenario (between NZ$0.90 and NZ$1.60) to derive its revised target price, reflecting management's willingness to engage with potential takeover proposals for the group.
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CHAMPION IRON LIMITED ((CIA)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden lowers its rating for Champion Iron to Neutral from Overweight with its target price decreased to $3.90 from $4.50 following a weak result featuring an adjusted net loss of -CA$34.3m.
Bloom Lake production of 3.3Mwmt missed expectations as DRPF integration issues impacted recoveries and operating efficiencies, compounding margin pressures from rising fuel and freight expenses.
Net debt swelled 61% over the half to CA$1.1bn, prompting management to secure covenant relief from creditors to navigate the volatile macro environment.
The analyst notes the company remains a preferred iron ore exposure, but mounting balance sheet pressures and uncertain commercial realisation of DRPF premiums warrant a more cautious stance.
COLES GROUP LIMITED ((COL)) Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden adjusts its rating for Coles Group to Underweight from Neutral with its target price lowered to $19.40 from $22.80, citing a difficult FY27 outlook marked by a softer Q2 update where October sales slowed to -3% year-on-year.
Jarden notes the company plans to increase price investment by an estimated $20m to $40m into the crucial holiday period, which, if annualised into the second half, could negatively impact Supermarket 2H EBIT by -2% or -4% if like-for-like sales fail to recover.
Commentary highlights the stock is now trading at a -13% discount to WOW.
Jarden reduces FY27 EBIT estimates by -6%, increases inventory day assumptions, and sees a -4% downside risk to second-half EBIT.
INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED ((IDX)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Canaccord Genuity and Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Canaccord Genuity maintains a Hold rating for Integral Diagnostics with its target price decreased to $1.77 from $2.43 following an AGM trading update that confirmed reservations regarding market share and productivity in the Australian business.
First-quarter revenue growth of 5.1% in Australia fell short of the 7.1% Medicare system growth, while New Zealand revenue declined -6.5% on a constant currency basis.
Management lowered margin expectations, targeting an EBITDA margin between 19.5% and 20.5% due to persistent radiologist labour shortages and an increased reliance on locum support.
Canaccord assesses the 10.9x FY27 enterprise value to EBIT multiple as fair value, noting it is in line with the healthcare services subsector median.
Jarden downgrades its rating for Integral Diagnostics to Neutral from Buy with its target price reduced to $2.35 from $2.95 following what the broker describes as a sobering first-quarter trading update.
Group revenue slowed to 3%, impacted by radiologist and sonographer shortages and a -15.1% deterioration in New Zealand revenues due to foreign exchange headwinds.
Jarden lowers EBITDA margin expectations to 19.8% for FY27, citing an increased reliance on expensive locums, and drives diluted earnings per share estimate reductions of -21.7% in FY27 and -18.9% in FY28.
The analyst notes that, while attractive upside exists, further confidence regarding the doctor and wage outlook is required (to rerate the shares and become more positive on the outlook).
RESMED INC ((RMD)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Canaccord Genuity downgrades its rating for ResMed to Hold from Buy with its target price decreased to $35.61 from $40.00 following a first-quarter result signalling that FY27 EPS guidance is overly dependent on "below-the-line engineering".
ResMed maintained FY27 reported revenue guidance of US$5.75bn to US$5.85bn and core constant-currency revenue growth of 5% to 7%.
The analyst expects the company may be layering additional SG&A and R&D into the business to reinforce its competitive position ahead of a potential Philips US market re-entry, downgrading FY28 and FY29 EPS forecasts by -4% to -6% after revising these cost assumptions.
| Order | Company | New Rating | Old Rating | Broker | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 1 | DYNO NOBEL LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Jarden | |
| 2 | EMERALD RESOURCES NL | Buy | Neutral | Canaccord Genuity | |
| 3 | FIREFLY METALS LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Moelis | |
| 4 | SKYCITY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED | Buy | Buy | Jarden | |
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| 5 | CHAMPION IRON LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Jarden | |
| 6 | COLES GROUP LIMITED | Sell | Neutral | Jarden | |
| 7 | INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Canaccord Genuity | |
| 8 | INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Jarden | |
| 9 | RESMED INC | Neutral | Buy | Canaccord Genuity | |
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