Australia | Feb 09 2009
By Chris Shaw
For the ninth month in a row the ANZ job advertisements series in Australia has posted a decline, with total jobs on the internet and in newspapers falling by 63% in January. This puts the annual decline in job ads at 33.7%.
Breaking the data down, ANZ Banking Group head of Australian economics Warren Hogan notes internet job ads were the main source of weakness, falling by 7.3% to be down 33.2% from the same time a year ago.
In contrast newspaper ads rose 12.3% for the month, though as Hogan notes they are still down a little more than 40% in the past 12 months so it is unclear yet as to whether this month’s improvement means a change in trend. Most states and territories recorded gains in the period, the exceptions being Tasmania and the Northern Territory.
According to Hogan the data are indicative of further weakness in the employment market in coming months, with his forecast calling for unemployment to rise above 6% this year before peaking at around 7% in 2010.
At the same time economic growth in the first half of this year is expected to be positive given the amount of fiscal stimulus the Federal government is supplying, but as Hogan notes, it will be whether or not higher spending supports employment that will largely determine whether or not economic growth will prove to be sustainable.