Australia | Aug 04 2008
By Chris Shaw
Various indicators are suggesting economic activity in Australia is trending lower. It comes as little surprise the number of jobs advertised in newspapers and on the internet also fell again in July, as measured by the ANZ Job Ads series.
For the month of July, the total number of jobs fell by just 0.3%, but there was quite a divergence between the number of ads in newspapers and the number online. The former fell by 5.1% to an average of 15,739 per week, putting total newspaper job ads more than 21% lower than at the same time last year.
The falls were most significant in South Australia and Victoria, where the number of newspaper ads fell almost 10% and almost 9% respectively. Western Australia was down 6%, Queensland by around 5% and New South Wales was 2% lower. Only Tasmania and the ACT recorded gains in the number of newspaper job ads for the month.
In contrast, the number of internet job ads was essentially unchanged at an average of 246,197 per week, which compares to an average for June of 246,112 and is 7.9% higher than in July last year.
According to ANZ head of Australian economics Warren Hogan, the numbers show a slowing in hiring intentions across Australia, which reflects the more difficult economic conditions being experienced at present.
In Hogan’s view, the numbers also suggest a continuing decline in employment conditions in coming months, which would be in keeping with the general easing in economic activity levels. He estimates this slowing in the rate of hiring workers should see unemployment in Australia trend up to around 4.9% by June of next year, which compares to a recent multi-year low of around 4.2%.
Hogan also suggests that while the labour market remains a generally bright spot for the economy, given low unemployment and steady wage growth, the data indicate the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is achieving its goals of slowing the domestic economy.
This leads Hogan to suggest official interest rates are likely to remain unchanged in the shorter-term as policymakers continue to monitor the balance between slowing in activity levels and the threat of current elevated inflationary pressures.