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AI data centre infrastructure's burgeoning energy needs strengthen the long-term uranium outlook, while Boss and Paladin face contrasting operational, funding and valuation challenges.
- AI data centres strengthen nuclear demand outlook
- Boss Energy resets Honeymoon expectations
- Paladin Energy navigates growth and valuation
- Uranium spot market firms into London symposium
By Danielle Ecuyer
Forecast US$140/lb
Pitt Street Research served up the latest update on the outlook for uranium around the burgeoning energy needs of the AI infrastructure build-out, with a rather aptly titled piece, “Feeding the Machines: Uranium in the Age of AI”.
It is not a new thematic, but at its core reflects the ongoing recognition that the world has an energy problem when it comes to powering data centres.
Pitt Street proposes the world is about to spend US$5trn building the infrastructure, and global data centre electricity demand is expected to double by 2030 from 485TWh in 2025.
Arguably, Pitt Street’s spend assumption might prove conservative, with some commentators citing a US$11trn build-out to meet the growing demand for compute. Think robotics and humanoids down the track.
The analysis notes the world has committed to the construction of around 4,250 new data centres over the next decade, including 450 hyperscale campuses.
Renewables will be part of the energy solution mix, but there remain question marks about intermittency risks. Gas is not expected to fill the gap in baseload needs without undermining the emissions targets many of the larger players have committed to.
Nuclear is the only technology which ticks all three boxes across reliability, carbon and land issues. Hyperscalers Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta have contracted 9.8GW and Pitt Street expects nuclear to provide circa 22% of data centre electricity by 2035.
Consensus expectations are around 12%.
While demand for nuclear is growing, the supply chain for the U308 fuel source remains challenged, with the Kazakh supply chain described as “fragile”.
Pitt Street forecasts the U308 market will move from a currently balanced position to a -15mlb deficit by 2030 and a -47mlb deficit by 2035.
Spot U308 is forecast to rise to US$140/lb by 2030.
Finally, an update on Honeymoon
Boss Energy ((BOE)) and Paladin Energy ((PDN)) announced FY26 results last week, with both stocks copping some ratings downgrades, albeit for different reasons.
Barrenjoey pointed to a miss on both earnings and guidance from Boss’ management, with all analysts focusing on the new feasibility study for Honeymoon.
The study outlined new production, capex and costs for Honeymoon based on a wide-spaced ISR well field design.
Production is now expected to reach 1.9mlbs versus consensus at 1.8mlbs, for life-of-mine production of 13.8mlbs, and C1 costs of $50/lb versus consensus expectations at $47/lb.
Sustaining capex is $22/lb, with the balance of growth capex at -$58m over the life of mine, nearly three times consensus at -$20m.
The study doesn’t include any value for an expansion or extension of Honeymoon through the Jason’s deposit or Gould’s Dam, which could increase production to 2.4mlbs pa and extend the life by around 14 years.
Permitting remains the key factor in bringing the satellite deposits online. Management is aiming for a 2-3 year permitting timeframe.
Management also offered FY27 guidance, with production coming in -16% below consensus, resulting from a larger-than-anticipated decline in average tenor and recoveries compared with the prior year. This resulted in costs being 15% higher.
Total capex of -$58m-$65m is 10% higher than consensus as FY27 is seen as a transitional year.
Across the board, analysts downgraded earnings forecasts, including at Barrenjoey.
Shaw and Partners cut FY27-FY29 EBITDA forecasts by -20% to -40% to align with the revised guidance.
Local brokers’ responses to the update were mixed. Morgan Stanley views the updated plan as largely in line, with lower life-of-mine capex offsetting weaker production and earnings. Here, Boss Energy remains Overweight rated with a $1.65 target.
Morgans and Ord Minnett were more downbeat, both downgrading the stock to Sell, with the former reducing its target to $1.30 from $1.40.
Ord Minnett likes the new plan as it provides a credible revised operating outlook, but the cash flow expected from the project has been reduced materially. Its target slips to $1 from $1.40.
Macquarie, also more upbeat with an Outperform rating, views the -16.5% pullback in the share price as disappointing, with the market seen focusing too much on the FY27 guidance. Its target lifts to $1.80 from $1.75.
Barrenjoey retains a Neutral rating and raises its target to $1.45 from $1.40 after ascribing a lower weighted average cost of capital due to improved clarity around Honeymoon.
FNArena’s daily monitored brokers have a consensus target of $1.486, down around -4.5% post the update. There are three Buy-equivalent ratings, two Holds and two Sell-equivalent ratings.
Paladin delivers a gross profit
Paladin’s FY26 gross profit reached US$52.2m when analysts were expecting a -US$1.1m loss. Management reaffirmed FY27 guidance, with permitting and engineering work at Patterson Lake South continuing to progress.
The uranium miner still reported a statutory net loss after tax of -US$9.1m, a substantial improvement on FY25’s -US$76.5m loss.
UBS remains positive on the uranium market, expecting the gap between spot and term prices to close higher as supply risks and potential M&A tighten the market, particularly for Western utilities.
The results, although slightly better than expected, were seen as offering no major surprises. The FNArena daily monitored brokers’ consensus target price lifted slightly to $12.457 from $12.179 prior to the update, a gain of 2.3%.
The robust share price rally leading into the result did prompt multiple rating downgrades.
The stock is now ascribed three Buy ratings, one Accumulate, two Holds and one Sell from Ord Minnett. The latter also has the lowest target price of $9.
Ord Minnett remains concerned about the funding requirements for Patterson Lake South, with first production not forecast until FY32 and development capex estimated at -$1.7bn.
Paladin is expected to remain free cash flow negative until PLS enters production, and the broker believes further equity raisings will be required.
Pitt Street Research sees Paladin as the closest to a genuine mid-tier producer on the Australian market.
The Week That Was
As highlighted by industry consultants TradeTech, the U308 spot indicator slipped -US$0.30/lb last week to US$89.20/lb but remains up 5.60% since late May and up 8.8% year to date.
The spot price has risen 16.9% from a year ago.
Three transactions were conducted in the spot market, and the consultants point to one utility which issued a formal Request for Proposals on August 25, seeking offers for next-day delivery of an equivalent US$60m of U308 enriched product by September 30, 2026.
Another US utility entered the market seeking 125klbs of U308 and requesting a quick turnaround on offers from interested sellers.
The consultants point out sellers retreated from the market to reconsider their positions, and offers below US$90/lb disappeared.
TradeTech sees the outlook among sellers as more upbeat and bullish, with expectations for more demand to evolve around the World Nuclear Symposium in London on September 9-11.
The TradeTech Mid-Term Price Indicator stands at US$88/lb and the Long-Term Price Indicator at US$97/lb.
Several transactions in the term market were noted for delivery in the mid-term window.
ASX Short Positions
Lotus Resources ((LTR)) saw the largest decline in shorts over the last week, according to ASIC data as of August 24, 2026, down -3.61% to 13.58%.
The stock is the second most shorted on the ASX, after DroneShield ((DRO)).
Paladin’s percentage in shorts was largely unchanged in seventh position at 11.15%. Boss Energy, in sixteenth position, saw short interest slipping by -1.15% to 9.42%.
Deep Yellow ((DYL)) is in eighteenth position at 9.38%, up from 8.97% in the prior week.
For more U308 reading from FNArena, see:
https://fnarena.com/uranium-week-price-momentum-results-bhp.htm
https://fnarena.com/uranium-week-nexgen-speculation-heats-up.htm
https://fnarena.com/uranium-week-a-suitor-for-nexgen-energy.htm
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 28/08/2026 | 0.0600 |  9.62% | $0.16 | $0.05 | |||
| AEE | 28/08/2026 | 0.1200 | 0.00% | $0.28 | $0.10 | |||
| AEU | 28/08/2026 | 0.5100 |  – 1.82% | $0.75 | $0.22 | |||
| AGE | 28/08/2026 | 0.0500 | 4.35% | $0.06 | $0.02 | $0.080 | 60.0% | |
| AKN | 28/08/2026 | 0.0200 | -20.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 28/08/2026 | 0.0400 | – 2.17% | $0.12 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 28/08/2026 | 0.5000 | – 2.00% | $0.70 | $0.37 | |||
| BMN | 28/08/2026 | 4.3500 | 8.98% | $5.25 | $2.77 | $4.733 | 8.8% | |
| BOE | 28/08/2026 | 1.4200 | -15.00% | $2.20 | $1.00 | 12.5 | $1.486 | 4.6% |
| BSN | 28/08/2026 | 0.0300 | – 9.38% | $0.07 | $0.02 | |||
| C29 | 28/08/2026 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 28/08/2026 | 0.3700 | – 7.59% | $0.40 | $0.10 | $0.300 | -18.9% | |
| CXU | 28/08/2026 | 0.1100 | 15.79% | $0.17 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 28/08/2026 | 0.2200 | – 6.52% | $0.33 | $0.08 | $0.410 | 86.4% | |
| DYL | 28/08/2026 | 1.6200 | 1.48% | $2.97 | $1.22 | -184.6 | $2.050 | 26.5% |
| EL8 | 28/08/2026 | 0.2800 | 3.51% | $0.50 | $0.21 | |||
| HAR | 28/08/2026 | 0.0800 | – 9.30% | $0.25 | $0.07 | |||
| I88 | 28/08/2026 | 0.1200 | – 4.17% | $0.76 | $0.10 | |||
| KOB | 28/08/2026 | 0.0400 | – 4.76% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 28/08/2026 | 0.6600 | 1.54% | $0.93 | $0.50 | |||
| LOT | 28/08/2026 | 0.2600 | – 5.36% | $3.20 | $0.22 | $1.443 | 455.1% | |
| MEU | 28/08/2026 | 0.0900 | – 7.62% | $0.19 | $0.04 | |||
| NXG | 28/08/2026 | 14.5600 | 0.98% | $20.47 | $11.40 | -130.7 | $15.600 | 7.1% |
| ORP | 28/08/2026 | 0.1400 | 3.70% | $0.16 | $0.03 | |||
| PDN | 28/08/2026 | 11.5700 | 1.03% | $15.10 | $7.45 | 66.5 | $12.457 | 7.7% |
| PEN | 28/08/2026 | 0.2800 | – 1.67% | $1.08 | $0.23 | |||
| SLX | 28/08/2026 | 5.1500 | 8.36% | $10.85 | $3.86 | |||
| WCN | 28/08/2026 | 0.0200 | 5.88% | $0.03 | $0.01 |
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