Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates A1M as Buy (1) -

AIC Mines has guided to 17,500-18,500t copper for FY27 at AISC of $4.80-5.20/lb, weighted to the second half. A target of 20,000-22,000t is slated for FY28 and 25,000-27,000t  for FY29.

Bell Potter's expectations are consistent with the new guidance although costs are now 25% above prior assumptions that were predicated on lower diesel prices and lower development/unit mining costs at the shallower and more productive Jericho mine.

The broker asserts the company's strong track record stands the business in good stead and retains a Buy rating. Target is raised to $0.95 from $0.90.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: $0.325
If A1M meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates A1M as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett observes the FY27 outlook from AIC Mines has highlighted an accelerated pathway to over 25,000tpa. Copper production and sales were lower than estimated in the fourth quarter because of lower grades from Eloise.

Despite this, the company still met original FY26 guidance.

Commentary highlights the accelerated growth plan for both Jericho and the stage 2 plant expansion will enable increased tonnage from Jericho that will combine with existing Eloise material to mean the 1.5mtpa plant will be at capacity by the second quarter of FY29.

Speculative Buy rating. Target is raised to $0.90 from $0.85.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: $0.275
If A1M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AAI as Buy (1) -

Alcoa delivered June quarter EBITDA that was below Ord Minnett's forecast, because of weak realised prices as the price of LME three-month aluminium dropped around -16% in June. There was also an increase in operating costs.

Alumina production missed market forecasts by -7% amid issues at the Pinjarra refinery and disruptions to gas supply because of Cyclone Narelle in March.

The company is confident it will receive Western Australian government approvals for its controversial bauxite mining plans south of Perth, although the broker notes timing could extend into 2027.

EPS estimates are reduced by -6.2% and -4.0% for 2026 and 2027, respectively. Target is lowered to $95 from $100 and a Buy rating is retained.

Target price is $95.00 Current Price is $65.15 Difference: $29.85
If AAI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $95.00, suggesting upside of 48.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALX as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie anticipates the strategic review of Atlas Arteria with IFM as the new owner will concentrate on slimming the business with a focus on existing assets, and a targeted reduction in the cost base.

After a pick-up in the cost base in 2026, resulting from bid-related issues, a lowering in the head count is expected, moving to a sustainable cost base of $30m-$35m from $45m, currently.

Although DPS guidance for 2026 stands at 40c, post the new owners, Macquarie suggests the DPS is likely to be trimmed to correspond to free cash flow. The analyst forecasts a cut in the 2H2026 dividend to around 13.5c.

Earnings estimates are trimmed by -0.8% for 2026 and lifted by 9.9% for 2027 and 9.2% for 2028.

Outperform rated with an unchanged $5.02 target price.

Target price is $5.02 Current Price is $5.09 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If ALX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.79, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMI as Outperform (1) -

Aurelia Metals reported 4Q26 gold production to 15.4koz, up 19% q/q and reaching FY26 gold production of 50.4koz, which is slightly above the upper end of guidance, Macquarie points out.

Management indicated higher gold production levels could continue into FY27. The analyst raises FY27 gold production forecasts to 53koz, at the top level of the previous three-year outlook.

Group operating costs rose 23% q/q for FY26 costs of $315.3m, at the top end of guidance. FY27 operating cost forecasts have been raised by around 4% to $323m, as cost pressures continue.

At the August results, the broker expects FY27 guidance will be announced as well as peak plant upgrades to 1.1mtpa-1.2mtpa. A new CEO announcement is flagged from mid-2026.

Outperform rated. Target price rises 5% to 45c due to a rise in forecast earnings (EBITDA).

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.16
If AMI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMI as Buy (1) -

Aurelia Metals posted a fourth quarter result that revealed production exceeded forecasts across most of the products, supported by gold production at Peak as additional material is prioritised in a high price environment.

Ord Minnett awaits FY27 guidance, expecting both gold production and operating costs will be higher.

The broker's FY26 earnings estimates have improved 23% while FY27 estimates slip slightly, by -6%. Target edges up to $0.46 from $0.45 and a Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.17
If AMI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Buy (1) -

Citi believes Australian banks are well positioned to benefit from AI, given their large data assets, concentrated market structure and relatively narrow product offerings.

Commentary notes the performance of global peers suggests AI could lift pre-tax profit by around 3%-5% over one to three years. Agentic AI has the potential to drive more meaningful benefits than broader productivity tools, the analysts note.

In the broker's view, CommBank appears furthest advanced across infrastructure, data and culture, followed by National Australia Bank. It is felt ANZ Bank and Westpac face near-term constraints from legacy integration and restructuring.

Stronger governance could ultimately become a competitive advantage, although Citi believes potential AI benefits remain difficult to quantify and insufficient to justify historically high sector valuations.

Buy rating and $39.25 target for ANZ Bank.

Target price is $39.25 Current Price is $36.13 Difference: $3.12
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.52, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Overweight (1) -

Domestic institutional ownership of CommBank and Westpac continued to increase in the June quarter, Morgan Stanley notes, despite changing operating conditions and proposed property tax reforms. Ownership eased slightly at National Australia Bank and ANZ Bank.

It's felt increased institutional ownership has been a key driver of the sector's valuation re-rating since mid-2023.

The broker also highlights a steady rise in superannuation fund ownership, which now accounts for around 31% of the major banks.

Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley sees Westpac and NAB as the most vulnerable over the next three to six months, citing elevated valuations, earnings risks, business mix and investor positioning.

Overweight rating maintained for ANZ Bank. Target is $34. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $36.13 Difference: minus $2.13 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.52, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates APA as Buy (1) -

Citi believes progress towards initial gas sales from the Beetaloo Basin strengthens the investment case for APA Group's proposed pipeline infrastructure.

First gas sales are expected within weeks, with interest from multiple customers supporting the initial Sturt Plateau Pipeline and, over time, the larger Beetaloo Basin pipeline.

Citi includes the Beetaloo development in its valuation of APA Group at a 10% probability, contributing 26c per share.

Management expects greater clarity on the project's viability within 12-18 months, with further updates anticipated at APA's FY26 results on 20 August.

Buy rating. Target of $11.10.

Target price is $11.10 Current Price is $10.18 Difference: $0.92
If APA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.44, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

UBS believes a developing strong, or "Super", El Nino through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027 could provide a modest operational tailwind for Australian bulk commodity producers. The broker also updates its spot price scenario analysis.

Improved weather conditions are expected to support mining operations, particularly for coal and iron ore producers, by reducing weather-related disruptions.

For Pilbara iron ore producers, including BHP Group, Rio Tinto ((RIO)), Fortescue ((FMG)) and Mineral Resources ((MIN)), reduced rainfall and cyclone disruptions could support increased mining, logistics and export performance.

It's also noted spot fair value remains supported by iron ore benchmark prices above long-term levels, although wider discounts for lower-grade ore have partly offset gains compared with a few months ago.

A Neutral rating and $59 target are maintained for BHP Group.

Target price is $59.00 Current Price is $57.54 Difference: $1.46
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $60.88, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Citi believes Australian banks are well positioned to benefit from AI, given their large data assets, concentrated market structure and relatively narrow product offerings.

Commentary notes the performance of global peers suggests AI could lift pre-tax profit by around 3%-5% over one to three years. Agentic AI has the potential to drive more meaningful benefits than broader productivity tools, the analysts note.

In the broker's view, CommBank appears furthest advanced across infrastructure, data and culture, followed by National Australia Bank. It is felt ANZ Bank and Westpac face near-term constraints from legacy integration and restructuring.

Stronger governance could ultimately become a competitive advantage, although Citi believes potential AI benefits remain difficult to quantify and insufficient to justify historically high sector valuations.

Sell rating and $135 target for CommBank.

Target price is $135.00 Current Price is $171.20 Difference: minus $36.2 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $123.11, suggesting downside of -27.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Domestic institutional ownership of CommBank and Westpac continued to increase in the June quarter, Morgan Stanley notes, despite changing operating conditions and proposed property tax reforms. Ownership eased slightly at National Australia Bank and ANZ Bank.

It's felt increased institutional ownership has been a key driver of the sector's valuation re-rating since mid-2023.

The broker also highlights a steady rise in superannuation fund ownership, which now accounts for around 31% of the major banks.

Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley sees Westpac and NAB as the most vulnerable over the next three to six months, citing elevated valuations, earnings risks, business mix and investor positioning.

CommBank has an Underweight rating and $125 target. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $171.20 Difference: minus $46.2 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $123.11, suggesting downside of -27.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett - Cessation of coverage

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DDR as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie upgrades Dicker Data to Outperform from Neutral with a higher target price of $12.85 from $10.35, highlighting the stock has greater AI upside potential for on-premise and infrastructure.

The stock is viewed as best positioned for AI upside potential compared to Data#3 ((DTL)) and should be a winner from an eventual SMB IT refresh cycle.

The company is forecast at least $60m-plus of AI-related revenue in FY26, the analyst states, with the run rate "accelerating". 

The broker believes there are limited issues around the full forward of AI-related demand into FY26 with high frequency data suggesting demand remains robust, even with higher average selling prices.

EPS forecasts are lifted by 8% for FY26 and FY27 which are aiming to capture the expected contribution from AI opportunity as well as higher interest rates.

Target price is $12.85 Current Price is $11.94 Difference: $0.91
If DDR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.95, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

Citi envisages potential for Domino's Pizza Enterprises to show improvement in same-store sales compared with the last trading update that revealed a decline of -7.2%.

This should come from an increase in discounting compared to none, or very limited discounting, previously as well as better weather following unfavourable conditions in The Netherlands and Germany over January/February 2026.

In an initial take on second quarter earnings from Domino's Pizza, the broker notes the parent company is working closely with Domino's Pizza Enterprises to improve performance, and has kept its 2026 guidance for low single-digit comparable sales growth for the international business. Neutral rating. Target is $16.90.

Target price is $16.90 Current Price is $17.09 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.17, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DMP as Buy (1) -

UBS' July 2026 Retail & Consumer Store Network Trackers has been updated.

The analyst notes Domino's Pizza Enterprises has reduced its store network by -46 locations since 1H26 to 3,472, reflecting management's focus on improving franchisee and store profitability, with the largest closures occurring in Europe and Asia.

The FY26 store count is estimated to finish at 3,482, below consensus' forecast of 3,510.

Management has reiterated FY26 underlying NPAT guidance to exceed the consensus estimate of $118.7m and announced an additional $15m to $25m in cost savings, on top of the previously identified $60m to $70m.

UBS maintains these initiatives should support profitability despite near-term sales pressure. Buy rated with a $22 target.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $17.09 Difference: $4.91
If DMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.17, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DTL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie retains a Neutral rating on Data#3 with a higher target of $9 from $8.25.

The stock is viewed as a long term compounder with less AI upside in the near term. 

The analyst sees limited risks around the upcoming earnings reports in August for both Data#3 and Dicker Data ((DDR)). Channel checks infer hardware supply remains available and demand stable despite higher average selling prices.

Risks are considered as limited from FY27 earnings pull forward. For Data#3 the analyst is waiting for signs of an improvement in the Services business.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $9.49 Difference: minus $0.49 (current price is over target).
If DTL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.23, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett - Cessation of coverage

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett - Cessation of coverage

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FLT as Buy (1) -

Citi expects the current operating environment to remain challenging for Qantas Airways, Virgin Australia and Flight Centre Travel due to ongoing volatility stemming from the conflict in the Middle East.

Ahead of reporting season, the broker has analysed airline schedules and passenger data for signs of travel demand trends, but continues to prefer airlines over travel agents as its preferred exposure to the sector.

Target for Flight Centre Travel falls to $13.20 from $14.15.

Target price is $13.20 Current Price is $11.83 Difference: $1.37
If FLT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.08, suggesting upside of 19.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett - Cessation of coverage

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FRW as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie continues to like Freightways Group and sees the stock as a high-quality exposure to an eventual turnaround in the NZ economy, despite tweaking FY26 earnings forecasts down on a weaker 4Q26 update.

The domestic recovery has been stalled due to softer confidence, increased fuel costs and weak B2B activity, resulting in FY26 earnings forecasts trimmed by -2.8%, and FY27 earnings forecasts down by around -5%.

Management continues to fine-tune pricing and cost controls, as well as growing market share and developing the Australian platform via Allied Express and VT Freight Express, the report highlights.

An Outperform rating is retained with a target price of NZ$15.65.

Current Price is $11.56. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $13.87, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GYG as Buy (1) -

UBS' July 2026 Retail & Consumer Store Network Trackers has been updated.

Guzman y Gomez has expanded its Australian restaurant network to 256 locations, opening 32 new restaurants during FY26 and achieving its full-year rollout target.

The company has already opened its first FY27 restaurant and forecasts the network will grow to 272 locations by 1H27.

The broker believes the continued pace of store expansion supports the company's long-term growth strategy. Forecasts are unchanged.

Buy rated with a $24 target.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $21.93 Difference: $2.07
If GYG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.58, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HLI as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie queries the elevated share price of Helia Group, near record levels, against a backdrop of rising risks of a housing market retreating on the budget changes and higher interest rates.

The analyst envisages downside risks to earnings forecasts from higher claims reserves, increased arrears and lower cures.

On a positive note, ING Bank has decided to continue with the group for another four years, which is seen as positive over the longer term.

EPS forecasts are trimmed by -7% for 2026 and lifted by 2% for 2027 and 15% for 2028.

Target price slips to $3.60 from $3.70 with an ongoing Underperform rating.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $5.64 Difference: minus $2.04 (current price is over target).
If HLI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett - Cessation of coverage

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IAG as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes much of the insurance sector's valuation appeal has faded after a strong share price rally, with the average price-to-earnings multiple rising to around 16x from 11x in 2022.

Whilst nib Holdings is now the broker's only Buy-rated insurer, Citi sees limited risk of material earnings disappointment and notes the sector still trades well below the major banks on around 20x earnings.

Ahead of reporting season, Citi's preferred general insurers are Insurance Australia Group, followed by QBE Insurance and Suncorp Group.

In private health insurance, the broker favours nib Holdings over Medibank Private, citing nib's valuation discount.

The target for Insurance Australia Group is $9.00. Neutral rating.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.42 Difference: $0.58
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.93, suggesting downside of -6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes China's battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales rose 33% year-on-year and 11% month-on-month in June, reaching their highest monthly level since November 2025.

Growth was driven primarily by exports, which accounted for 27.1% of total BEV sales, while domestic demand remained subdued, the analysts explain.

For lithium, the broker remains cautious despite lower equity valuations. Strong demand is expected to support lithium prices in the current quarter, although the restart of CATL's mine and the return of previously suspended supply continue to pose near-term risks.

The analysts continue to expect near-term earnings pressure for IGO Ltd, with forecasts likely to be downgraded following the upcoming quarterly update. Target $6.95.

The broker retains an Equal-weight rating but continues to prefer PLS Group, citing its more attractive valuation and greater long-term growth optionality. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $6.95 Current Price is $6.60 Difference: $0.35
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.08, suggesting upside of 39.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LOV as Buy (1) -

UBS' July 2026 Retail & Consumer Store Network Trackers has been updated.

Lovisa's store network has expanded to 1,155 locations, adding 60 net new stores since 1H26, with most of the growth coming from Europe and the Americas.

UBS forecasts the FY26 network has reached 1,152 stores, broadly in line with consensus' estimate of 1,158.

The broker expects sales growth to remain driven by new store openings, highlighting the significant global expansion opportunity.

A positive long-term view on the company's store rollout strategy is retained. Buy rated with a $26 target.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $22.84 Difference: $3.16
If LOV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.74, suggesting upside of 34.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes much of the insurance sector's valuation appeal has faded after a strong share price rally, with the average price-to-earnings multiple rising to around 16x from 11x in 2022.

While nib Holdings is now the broker's only Buy-rated insurer, Citi sees limited risk of material earnings disappointment and notes the sector still trades well below the major banks on around 20x earnings.

Ahead of reporting season, Citi's preferred general insurers are Insurance Australia Group, followed by QBE Insurance and Suncorp Group.

In private health insurance, the broker favours nib Holdings over Medibank Private, citing nib's valuation discount.

The target for Medibank Private is $5.10. Neutral rating.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $5.16 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.14, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MVF as Hold (3) -

The latest Medicare data showed some improvement in stimulated cycles/frozen embryo services in May. Service volume still remains below the median, reflecting the current struggles in the sector and across key states, Bell Potter observes.

Monash IVF has a Hold rating and $0.77 target.

Target price is $0.77 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: $0.095
If MVF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.81, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes Australian banks are well positioned to benefit from AI, given their large data assets, concentrated market structure and relatively narrow product offerings.

Commentary notes the performance of global peers suggests AI could lift pre-tax profit by around 3%-5% over one to three years. Agentic AI has the potential to drive more meaningful benefits than broader productivity tools, the analysts note.

In the broker's view, CommBank appears furthest advanced across infrastructure, data and culture, followed by National Australia Bank. It is felt ANZ Bank and Westpac face near-term constraints from legacy integration and restructuring.

Stronger governance could ultimately become a competitive advantage, although Citi believes potential AI benefits remain difficult to quantify and insufficient to justify historically high sector valuations.

Neutral rating and $38 target for National Australia Bank.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $39.69 Difference: minus $1.69 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $38.85, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Underweight (5) -

Domestic institutional ownership of CommBank and Westpac continued to increase in the June quarter, Morgan Stanley notes, despite changing operating conditions and proposed property tax reforms. Ownership eased slightly at National Australia Bank and ANZ Bank.

It's felt increased institutional ownership has been a key driver of the sector's valuation re-rating since mid-2023.

The broker also highlights a steady rise in superannuation fund ownership, which now accounts for around 31% of the major banks.

Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley sees Westpac and NAB as the most vulnerable over the next three to six months, citing elevated valuations, earnings risks, business mix and investor positioning.

National Australia Bank has an Underweight rating and $34.50 target. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $34.50 Current Price is $39.69 Difference: minus $5.19 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $38.85, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NGI as Buy (1) -

The June update on assets under management from Navigator Global Investments showed a 6% increase despite the volatile markets, amid robust quarterly net flows into Lighthouse, Morgans observes.

The broker believes the business is well-placed to benefit from structural tailwinds in global alternative assets and the target to double EBITDA by FY30 appears achievable.

EPS estimates for FY26 and FY27 are revised up by 1% and down by -2%, respectively. Target is reduced to $3.13 from $3.39 and a Buy rating is retained.

Target price is $3.13 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: $0.75
If NGI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting upside of 48.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHF as Buy (1) -

Citi believes much of the insurance sector's valuation appeal has faded after a strong share price rally, with the average price-to-earnings multiple rising to around 16x from 11x in 2022.

Whilst nib Holdings is now the broker's only Buy-rated insurer, Citi sees limited risk of material earnings disappointment and notes the sector still trades well below the major banks on around 20x earnings.

Ahead of reporting season, Citi's preferred general insurers are Insurance Australia Group, followed by QBE Insurance and Suncorp Group. In private health insurance, the broker favours nib Holdings over Medibank Private, citing its valuation discount.

The target for nib Holdings is $8.00.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.44 Difference: $0.56
If NHF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.35, suggesting downside of -0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NXT as Buy (1) -

Today, management at NextDC provided a contracted utilisation update showing a 73MW increase to 740MW at June 30.

At first glance, Citi believes the update will result in upside to the consensus FY28 earnings (EBITDA) forecast, even though the announcement was largely anticipated.

The announcement corresponds with SharonAI's requirement for 72 MWs from the recent Nvidia partnership, the analyst explains.

The broker estimates the contract could contribute around $85m of FY28 EBITDA on a rapid deployment timeline, without requiring additional capital expenditure beyond existing guidance.

Billing utilisation of 175MW was broadly in line with Citi's forecast, while a 1MW increase in enterprise contracts is viewed positively. 

The stock is Buy rated with a $19.10 target price.

Target price is $19.10 Current Price is $13.05 Difference: $6.05
If NXT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.16, suggesting upside of 35.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PLS as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes China's battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales rose 33% year-on-year and 11% month-on-month in June, reaching their highest monthly level since November 2025.

Growth was driven primarily by exports, which accounted for 27.1% of total BEV sales, while domestic demand remained subdued, the analysts explain.

For lithium, the broker remains cautious despite lower equity valuations. Strong demand is expected to support lithium prices in the current quarter, although the restart of CATL's mine and the return of previously suspended supply continue to pose near-term risks.

The analysts continue to prefer PLS Group over IGO Ltd, citing its more attractive valuation and greater long-term growth optionality.

Equal-weight rating and $5.15 target for PLS Group. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $4.19 Difference: $0.96
If PLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.63, suggesting upside of 36.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QAN as Buy (1) -

Citi expects the current operating environment to remain challenging for Qantas Airways, Virgin Australia and Flight Centre Travel due to ongoing volatility stemming from the conflict in the Middle East.

Ahead of reporting season, the broker has analysed airline schedules and passenger data for signs of travel demand trends, but continues to prefer airlines over travel agents as its preferred exposure to the sector.

Target for Qantas Airways rises by $1.00 to $11.40.

Target price is $11.40 Current Price is $10.09 Difference: $1.31
If QAN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.51, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QAN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley raises its target price for Qantas Airways to $12.50 from $10.60 and reiterates its Overweight rating. Industry view: In line.

Project Sunrise is seen as the catalyst for a structural re-rating of the airline rather than simply a source of additional earnings.

This project, plus fleet renewal and broader network initiatives combined, are expected to improve earnings resilience, support stronger international margins and narrow Qantas' valuation discount to global airline peers.

The broker believes the market is overly focused on management's $400m target for incremental earnings (EBIT), while underestimating the longer-term benefits of a higher-quality international business.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $10.09 Difference: $2.41
If QAN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.51, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QBE as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes much of the insurance sector's valuation appeal has faded after a strong share price rally, with the average price-to-earnings multiple rising to around 16x from 11x in 2022.

While nib Holdings is now the broker's only Buy-rated insurer, Citi sees limited risk of material earnings disappointment and notes the sector still trades well below the major banks on around 20x earnings.

Ahead of reporting season, Citi's preferred general insurers are Insurance Australia Group, followed by QBE Insurance and Suncorp Group. In private health insurance, the broker favours nib Holdings over Medibank Private, citing its valuation discount.

The target for QBE Insurance is $27.20. Neutral rating.

Target price is $27.20 Current Price is $25.45 Difference: $1.75
If QBE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.01, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QBE as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS downgrades QBE Insurance to Neutral from Buy with a higher target of $27.30 from $25.25.

The analyst expects QBE to deliver a solid 1H26 result and reiterate FY26 guidance, but also believes softening reinsurance and commercial insurance pricing will create margin headwinds into FY27.

Higher combined operating ratio forecasts of 93.0% for FY27 and 93.5% for FY28 reflect weaker premium pricing and limited scope for reserve releases to offset earnings pressure, whilst the North American business, excluding Crop, remains a key underperformer.

UBS notes earnings growth is expected to slow, with EPS forecast to grow at just a 2% CAGR between FY26 and FY28.

Target price is $27.30 Current Price is $25.45 Difference: $1.85
If QBE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.01, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REA as Neutral (3) -

REA Group's Australian residential listing volumes grew in June, up 13% y/y amounting to flat FY26 volumes which is slightly above Macquarie's prior forecast of -1% and management's guidance of -1% to -3%.

The group has started a transaction to divest its operation in India which is anticipated in 1Q27 and result in it receiving $68m Aurum shares (the buyer) and raising REA's stake in Aurum to 24.9% from 5.5%.

FY27 EPS forecasts are lifted by 4% on the removal of the prior expected earnings loss from India of around -$36m.

Target price is raised to $165 from $155 with a Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $165.00 Current Price is $161.23 Difference: $3.77
If REA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $186.25, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RRL as Buy (1) -

Regis Resources has outlined production and cost guidance for FY27 expecting 360k-400,000 ounces, with 240k-270,000 ounces from Duketon and 120k-130,000 ounces from Tropicana. AISC is guided at $2990-$3390/oz.

The midpoint of production guidance is in line with Bell Potter's forecasts, whilst costs are now around 13% above prior expectations as higher cost ounces are brought into the mine plan at Duketon and diesel cost inflation comes through the cost base at both operations.

The broker observes free cash flow continues to support dividends and gold price leverage has increased with the company's strategy to develop and mine more marginal, albeit still profitable, ounces.

Bell Potter retains a Buy rating, lowering its target to $8.45 from $9.45.

Target price is $8.45 Current Price is $5.65 Difference: $2.8
If RRL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.80, suggesting upside of 32.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Buy (1) -

South32 reported a solid June quarter, Citi  assesses, with production ahead of the broker's forecasts for alumina, aluminium, silver and manganese.

Weaker copper output at Sierra Gorda due to lower grades and lower lead and zinc production at Cannington provided offsets, the analyst explains.

The standout was Cannington silver production, which exceeded Citi's forecast by 34% and consensus by 23%.

The broker expects strong cash generation to continue, supported by an estimated US$200m working capital unwind in the second half of FY26 and capital expenditure tracking below forecasts.

Buy. Target $6.10.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $4.08 Difference: $2.02
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.03, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

South32 announced a miss on copper volumes by -8% for 4Q26, but beats on silver, zinc, lead and manganese, by 24%, 6%, 9% and 7%, respectively, Macquarie notes.

Cannington achieved higher production q/q due to higher mined volumes and a recovery in grade. A final investment decision is expected now in 1H28 for Open Cut.

FY27 guidance for manganese has been withdrawn and will be reconsidered at FY27 results. A Neutral rating and $4.30 target are retained. EPS forecasts are raised by 14% for FY26, 8% for FY27 and 14% for FY28.

The broker retains a Neutral rating due to the adjustment for the aluminium sale offset by the earnings improvement.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $4.08 Difference: $0.22
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.03, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley views South32's June quarter operating result as broadly in line with expectations, with higher production volumes offset by weaker commodity prices.

Stronger-than-expected production at Cannington, particularly silver, offset weaker copper output at Sierra Gorda, the analysts explain.

Looking to FY27, the broker expects higher costs and lower production at Australia Manganese, with full cost guidance to be provided alongside the financial results.

Higher Australian manganese costs are expected to be partly offset by lower-than-expected costs at Cannington.

Overweight. Target is $4.75. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.08 Difference: $0.67
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.03, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates S32 as Buy (1) -

South32 performed strongly in the June quarter and met FY26 production guidance across its operations. Cash flow and unit costs were also better than Ord Minnett expected.

The Sierra Gorda copper/gold/silver mine in Chile recovered from the poor weather in April and May while output at Cannington silver/zinc in Queensland was boosted by higher metal grades and improved access, also following interruptions caused by the weather.

Buy rating reiterated. Target is $5.10, up from $5.00.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.08 Difference: $1.02
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.03, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett - Cessation of coverage

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett - Cessation of coverage

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes much of the insurance sector's valuation appeal has faded after a strong share price rally, with the average price-to-earnings multiple rising to around 16x from 11x in 2022.

While nib Holdings is now the broker's only Buy-rated insurer, Citi sees limited risk of material earnings disappointment and notes the sector still trades well below the major banks on around 20x earnings.

Ahead of reporting season, Citi's preferred general insurers are Insurance Australia Group, followed by QBE Insurance and Suncorp Group.

In private health insurance, the broker favours nib Holdings over Medibank Private, citing nib's valuation discount.

The target for Suncorp Group is $19.25. Neutral rating.

Target price is $19.25 Current Price is $19.15 Difference: $0.1
If SUN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.89, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett - Cessation of coverage

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TLX as Buy (1) -

In an early glance at today's June quarter update by Telix Pharmaceuticals, Bell Potter assesses ongoing strong operational momentum. Second-quarter revenue rose 21% year-on-year to US$247m, ahead of both the broker's and consensus forecasts.

Precision Medicine revenue increased 31%, reflecting ongoing market share gains, while FY26 product sales guidance was maintained at US$950m-US$970m, the analyst highlights. Management expects to finish at the upper end of the guidance range.

FY26 revenue guidance now exceeds US$1bn after including a US$40m upfront payment from Regeneron. Guidance for FY26 R&D spend is upgraded to -US$230m-US$270m from -US$200m-US$240m.

Increased research and development spending reflects the strength of the balance sheet and pipeline, Bell Potter suggests.

Buy rating and $19.00 target maintained.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $15.10 Difference: $3.9
If TLX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.85, suggesting upside of 68.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates UNI as Buy (1) -

UBS' July 2026 Retail & Consumer Store Network Trackers has been updated.

Universal Store's network has grown to 123 stores, adding five locations since 1H26 and 12 since FY25, led by expansion of the Perfect Stranger banner.

The FY26 store network is forecast to have reached 125, in line with consensus.

The broker expects sales growth to be supported by a combination of like-for-like sales growth and continued new store openings through FY26 and FY27.

UBS forecasts like-for-like sales growth of 8.2% in FY26 and 3.5% in FY27, alongside net new store growth of 5.0% and 4.0%, respectively.

Buy rated. Target $9.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.43 Difference: $1.57
If UNI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.71, suggesting upside of 32.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes Australian banks are well positioned to benefit from AI, given their large data assets, concentrated market structure and relatively narrow product offerings.

Commentary notes the performance of global peers suggests AI could lift pre-tax profit by around 3%-5% over one to three years. Agentic AI has the potential to drive more meaningful benefits than broader productivity tools, the analysts note.

In the broker's view, CommBank appears furthest advanced across infrastructure, data and culture, followed by National Australia Bank. It is felt ANZ Bank and Westpac face near-term constraints from legacy integration and restructuring.

Stronger governance could ultimately become a competitive advantage, although Citi believes potential AI benefits remain difficult to quantify and insufficient to justify historically high sector valuations.

Neutral rating and $37.50 target for Westpac.

Target price is $37.50 Current Price is $36.66 Difference: $0.84
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.85, suggesting downside of -6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Underweight (5) -

Domestic institutional ownership of CommBank and Westpac continued to increase in the June quarter, Morgan Stanley notes, despite changing operating conditions and proposed property tax reforms. Ownership eased slightly at National Australia Bank and ANZ Bank.

It's felt increased institutional ownership has been a key driver of the sector's valuation re-rating since mid-2023.

The broker also highlights a steady rise in superannuation fund ownership, which now accounts for around 31% of the major banks.

Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley sees Westpac and NAB as the most vulnerable over the next three to six months, citing elevated valuations, earnings risks, business mix and investor positioning.

Underweight rating and $31.50 target for Westpac. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $31.50 Current Price is $36.66 Difference: minus $5.16 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.85, suggesting downside of -6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett - Cessation of coverage

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WHC as Neutral (3) -

UBS believes a developing strong, or "Super", El Nino through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027 could provide a modest operational tailwind for Australian bulk commodity producers. The broker also updates its spot price scenario analysis.

Improved weather conditions are expected to support mining operations, particularly for coal and iron ore producers, by reducing weather-related disruptions.

While rainfall has fallen below seasonal norms, healthy water storages in Queensland and New South Wales should provide a buffer, the analysts explain.

This will allow producers such as Whitehaven Coal and Coronado Global Resources ((CRN)) to benefit from drier operating conditions without the challenges associated with prolonged dry weather.

At the same time, lower rainfall reduces the risk of flood-related disruptions, including mine inundation, rail outages and port bottlenecks. These have historically constrained coal production and exports during the Southern Hemisphere wet season, the broker explains.

Unchanged Neutral rating and $8.70 target.

Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $7.63 Difference: $1.07
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.88, suggesting upside of 17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett - Cessation of coverage

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ZIP as Buy (1) -

Citi notes New York's Department of Financial Services has formally published proposed buy now, pay later (BNPL) regulations that would require Zip Co to be licensed in the state and could cap the fees it charges.

While New York is not considered material to volumes, the broker sees a greater risk if similar rules are adopted by other states.

Buy rating with a target of $3.55

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $2.87 Difference: $0.68
If ZIP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting upside of 34.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources